Tag: 2008 Elections

A funny thing happened last night in Paducah. Although Hurricane Ike had not even touched ground in the United States yet, prices at the pump started rising and hitting as high as $4.59 a gallon. This caused a rush on the pumps that hadn’t gone up, and resulted in lines all the way out on the road in some places, and even a few fist-fights from consumers desperate to fill their tanks before the prices spiked.

The real question is why were prices going up so quickly? Our Lt. Governor, Dan Mongiardo was quick to point out on the radio this morning that the prices seem to be spiking mostly in Western Kentucky. He also noted that not one drop of gas being sold there originated from Houston or Galveston, the areas affected by the Hurricane.

He was not the only one that smelled a rat. Our Democratic Attorney General, Jack Conway was on the job too:

“Today, I formally requested that Gov. Beshear implement the price gouging protections of Kentucky’s Consumer Protection Act as they apply to gasoline and other goods and services. We have received an overwhelming influx of reports from across Kentucky regarding gasoline price spikes and even rationing. I felt it was important to get the price gouging protections in place as soon as possible to protect the commonwealth’s consumers and businesses,” General Conway said.

http://www.wave3.com/global/st…

Governor Steve Beshear was quick to respond:

“I am outraged by the voracious practices of price gouging we are seeing,” Gov. Beshear said at a press conference Friday afternoon. “Today, I have taken an extraordinary step to protect the consumers of the commonwealth from these predators.”

The emergency declaration, issued before Hurricane Ike hits the coast, triggers several consumer protection measures.  Among them, it empowers the Attorney General to investigate and prosecute, where appropriate, those who sell gasoline, building supplies and other goods for predatory pricing in a time of disaster.

Gov. Beshear and Attorney General Jack Conway have partnered to make aggressive consumer protection a priority, launching an investigation earlier this summer into high gas prices in Louisville.

http://www.wave3.com/global/st…

This goes to show what Kentucky Democrats can do when they work together, fighting for what is right. Almost as soon as Gov. Beshear issued his order, gas prices in Paducah went from $4.59 and $4.55 a gallon to $3.99 and $3.95. Our former Republican Governor would not have dreamed of such a measure. These actions recieved quick praise from the KDP:

The Governor’s action today will allow many consumer protections to be put into force.  Under the order, Attorney General Jack Conway is empowered to investigate and, if appropriate, prosecute anyone who sells gasoline, building materials and other products at predatory pricing levels during a time of disaster.

If you have any specific information regarding price gouging practices at a gas station or retail outlet, please contact the Attorney General’s office.

On the heels of last week’s announcement to make health insurance available to more of Kentucky’s children, Governor Beshear has again demonstrated his leadership and commitment to Kentucky’s hard working families.

Sincerely,

Jennifer A. Moore

Chair, Kentucky Democratic Party

Heather Ryan, Democratic candidate in Kentucky’s First Congressional District where most of the almost-gouging was centered was also quick to praise our Democratic State leaders:

KUDOS goes out to Governor Beshear for issuing an Executive Order earlier today to prevent price gouging of gasoline and other essential supplies due to the impending hurricane in the Gulf Coast.  When we were returning from a campaign function last night, we witnessed two local gas stations raising their prices a whopping $0.90 a gallon.  I immediately called my campaign manager to ask if we had invaded another oil rich country – since that could be the only reason I could think of that would justify these huge price increases.  Upon hearing that we were still only illegally occupying the same oil rich countries, I realized that the citizens of Western Kentucky were experiencing even worse price gouging at the expense of an industry who has already taken so much for so long, but whose appetite is never satiated.  

Not surprisingly, after the emergency order, those two gas stations dropped their prices by $0.60 a gallon.  It is the leadership and protection from our Governor, Lt. Governor and Attorney General that helps stave off some of the effects of the greedy oil industry.  It is unfortunate and criminal that our representative in Congress does not feel the same responsibility toward those he represents.  Of course, why would he feel that loyalty?  The man doesn’t live in Kentucky and because of his financial conflict-of-interest in Big Oil, he is not effected the same by the outrageous price of gasoline.  Instead, his wallet increasingly benefits when Exxon and Chevron post record profits.  I intend to change that in November.  

Heather Ryan

Her opponents answer to high gas prices? Driving an empty tractor-trailer with his face on it all over Western Kentucky:

Kentucky Democrats have shown that they will fight for us once in office. With the election in Nov. up in the air, and our lead in the Congressional Generic Ballot dwindling, it is more important than ever that we stand up and fight for a Democrat that will make a difference in the Congress, Heather Ryan. She is right on the cusp of making big noise in this district, and will be filming her first T.V. ad in the next several days. Please help us get on the airwaves and defeat Exxon Ed Whitfield, and join “Fighting Kentucky Democrats” in representing what is right:

Anyone donating $30 or more will automatically get an awesome Ryan for Congress t-shirt sent to them!!

I will put in the first $30, who will match me??

Thanks to our Governor, Lt. Governor, Attorney General, and to Heather Ryan and Jennifer Moore for being great Democratic leaders. With leaders such as these, our state is definately looking blue!!

 

The following is my look at the races in Oregon this fall, from statewide down to state legislative and excluding ballot measures.  Unlike my previous updates, I rank each race within its category, rather than by district number.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…

Data Sources:

The Most Recent Voter Registration Data is at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf

Candidate information comes from ORESTAR: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp?CONTENT_PAGE=cf/CFSearchPage.jsp

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.  All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

N=Unaffiliated, otherwise known as Independents.

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s Oregon party).

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).\

Rankings:

Within each category, the highest rated seat is the one considered closest.  E.g. the highest rate seat in the tossup category is considered the most of a “tossup”.

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: Its September now and I have yet to see any ads by either campaign.  However, the Obama folks are clearly on the ground in this state and McCain has just as clearly made now effort.  Count 7 EVs for the Big O, the only question is the  margin.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Smith, the DSCC and Merkley are busy slinging mostly negative ads at each other.  In fact, only Merkley is really running any positive ads at this point as Smith’s only positive ad is an issue ad on health care sponsored by a major business group.  This race has not been polled for a while so I would guess Smith is still sightly ahead.  Yet, the dynamics of this state make this race a tossup.

Rating: Tossup.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate.  On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light.  Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here.  Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well (he ran his company into the ground).

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Congressional Races:

Safe Races:

1st-District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

2nd-District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

3rd-District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.

Likely Races:

1st-District 1: Wu (D-inc) should have little trouble with Joel Haugen abandoning the Republcian party to run as a member of the Independent Party.  The Republicans do not have a candidate.

Lean Races:

1st and only-District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country.  Then three things happened.  First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one.  Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion.  This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation.  Schrader just went on the air and Erickson doesn’t appear to be contesting this one too much.  Still, he can self-finance enough that this race can’t be upgraded for the Ds.

Rating: Leans Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Note: Races within the “Safe” category are not ranked.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Lean Races:

1st-27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

2nd-9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans Girod.

3rd-12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans Boquist.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Lean Races:

1st-26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before.  The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”.  Wingard also raised a few eyebrows when he sent out a “legislative update” mere days after taking office, despite the fact that he had not yet voted on a single bill or even attended a committee hearing (h/t to Loaded O for this: Wingard: I Can Haz Spend Ur Money, C?).  My heart tells me this will be close but my head tells me that Wingard still has a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

2nd-19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day.  Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session.  Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

3rd-49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced.  They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side.  With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district, if they vote, which they did not in 2006.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

4th-30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here.  The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago.  It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge.  This is by far the best Republican chance for a pickup though.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

5th-23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

6th-18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.  If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

7th-59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

8th-15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

9th-17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

10th-9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one.  Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.  

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

11th-6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

12th-7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.4k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened.  This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge.  Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here.  He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

13th-22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn.  However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.  Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

Tossup Races:

1st-39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.  Both candidates are well known and respected in the community.  This one should be very close.

Outlook: Tossup.

2nd-52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.  If I had to guess, I’d give a very slight edge to VanOrman right now.

Outlook: Tossup.

3rd-54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

4th-50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

5th-51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing.  I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.

Outlook: Tossup.

6th-20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

7th-37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.

Outlook: Tossup.

8th-24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.

Outlook: Tossup.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

This is the second part in my two-part series having a little bit of fun with the Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet.  This part discusses the main arguments presented by each side in every contested ballot measure and then dissects them for pure comedic value.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet is currently posted at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html

Please note that this is the “Military/Overseas” edition and as such is a bit rough (it is basically scanned in PDFs).

For a more serious look at these measures, see my diary from a few weeks back: The Final Oregon Ballot: Game On!

For each measure I present each side’s major arguments and list the number of arguments filed for and against.  I then analyze and make fun of these arguments.

Note: These are obviously gross exaggerations of some of these arguments so bear with me.  I focus on the main argument for each side, but multiple arguments do exist for/against most measures.

For the record, this is how I personally will vote on each measure:

54: Yes.

55: Yes.

56: Yes.

57: Yes.

58: No.

59: No.

60: No.

61: No.

62: No.

63: No.

64: No.

65: No.

Oregon’s Ballot Measures:

Measure Summary:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

No arguments filed for or against.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

No arguments filed for or against.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 23/7.

Yes Argument: The Double Majority Law basically means that measures that would otherwise pass fail because people don’t vote.

The Real Argument: We’re losing because people don’t vote.

No Argument: The Double Majority Law protects taxpayers from being abused by local governments who may repeatedly sneak ballot measures past them until they pass.

The Real Argument: We hate taxes and we know that the only people likely to vote in non-general elections are those that support taxes.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 23/6.

Yes Argument: Kevin Mannix’s crime bill costs too much because it requires building of too many prisons and focuses on punishment and not treatment.

The Real Argument: Mannix’s measure will pass if we don’t propose this measure so that’s exactly what we’re doing.  We can’t really afford this one either but we are in less deep sh-t if we pass this one than Mannix’s.

No Argument: This measure is just a kiss-off designed by politicians to appear that they are doing something when they are in fact not to prevent crime.

The Real Argument: We want everyone who has ever committed any real crime at all locked away forever.  Rehabilitation, forget it.  If Jean Villejean of Les Miserables fame stole bread under this measure, he’d get hard time and we don’t want any excuses about why he did it.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 8/29.

Yes Argument: Children of immigrants learn English best and integrate best into our society if they have English immersion, not ESL.

The Real Argument: Learn English you Mex-I-Cans!  This is A-Mer-ika and you dang well better speak it rather than that there Espan-Yol….

No Argument: It costs too much and is not effective to force English immersion on new immigrants and their children.

The Real Argument: The other side is a bunch of racist f-ers and we shouldn’t listen to them.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/28.

Yes Argument: Allowing a full federal deduction saves taxpayers money and thus stimulates the economy.

The Real Argument: Allowing a full federal deduction saves rich people money (the current deduction covers most middle class folks).

No Argument: This deduction is unnecessary and would blow a huge hole in the state budget.

The Real Argument: This deduction would cost a whole lot of state jobs, including teachers. cops and firefighters.  You like teachers, cops and firefighters don’t you?

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/26.

Yes Argument: We should focus on retaining the best teachers, not simply those that have been there the longest.

The Real Argument: We want another excuse to cut teachers we don’t like.

No Argument: Merit pay doesn’t work because it is difficult to measure student performance.

The Real Argument: We’re used to the seniority system and we want to keep it.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 7/19.

Yes Argument: Those committing low level drug and property crimes get off too easy nowadays.

The Real Argument: Measure 11 (Mannix’s Mandatory Minimum Measure) worked so well at increasing the need for prisons, why not go for broke?

No Argument: This law is overly punitive, most of these folks need treatment, not jail.

The Real Argument: We can’t afford this measure, it’s as simple as that.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/10.

Yes Argument: If we want real crime prevention, we need a stable funding source like the lottery.

The Real Argument: This also takes away money from those pesky public schools to boot, we don’t like public schools that much.

No Argument: This would decrease funding for other programs, parks and schools mainly, funded by the lottery.

The Real Argument: Gambling has been funding us for a long time and we can’t afford to lose any money from people who are foolish enough to play the lottery.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 6/24.

Yes Argument: Right now, in order to make minor building changes to your home or business, you need to get a pesky permit.  This should not be so.

The Real Argument: This is a backhanded way of starving local governments that depend on permit revenue and thus decreasing the size of government.  Oh and we hate pesky permitting requirements for the most part too.

No Argument: Permit requirements are there for our own good and safety.

The Real Argument: Local governments rely so heavily on permit revenues that we can’t afford to lose them.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 7/30.

Yes Argument: Since public employee unions work for the public, they should not be involved in any way in politics.

The Real Argument: Public employee unions are the single biggest source of funding for the Oregon D’s and this way we can kill the Democrats $ source.

No Argument: People can already opt out of their dues being spent on political campaigns.  This is just a backhanded way to destroy our influence.

The Real Argument: We lose a lot of our power if this measure passes.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Arguments Filed For/Against: 20/15

Yes Argument: The top two primary makes sense because it allows the top two candidates regardless of party affiliation to advance to the general election, allowing for choice and encouraging turnout in the primary.

The Real Argument: We don’t like the control parties have our the primaries.

No Argument: The top two primary doesn’t increase turnout and actually decreases the chance a third-party candidate will make it to the general election.  If you want to vote in a primary, register as a member of a political party.

The Real Argument: The Republican and Democratic parties don’t want to lose control of their nominating processes.

Let me know what you think.

Just down the road from Paducah, Kentucky sits St. John’s Catholic Church. Every year, they have an annual picnic with games and political speaking. While not as famous, and a lot tamer than the Fancy Farm Picnic, it is a really good idea for candidates to stop in and work for votes in Western Kentucky.

As with a lot of events in Kentucky Politics today, Heather Ryan stole the show. Unfortunately, at the last minute our camera had some technical difficulties, but I want to share a transcript of Heather’s speech, that once again fired up Democrats in attendence, and offended Republicans deeply with the hard truth of their records:

Well, we were going to bring our tractor-trailer to St. John’s Picnic like Exxon Eddie, but we simply couldn’t afford it.

After the Republican National Convention ended this week, analysts said the Republicans didn’t mention their achievements because they didn’t have any. Unfortunately, I disagree.

Republicans achieved everything they set out to achieve. They’ve made the rich richer, and the middle-class poor. You may think it is unfair for me to say, but when my opponent votes against Healthcare for poor children, he is representing Insurance companies, not you.

When Exxon Eddie votes against funding Alternative Energy, he is representing Big Oil, and his own stock options, not you. When he votes to give himself and the richest 1% of Americans a huge tax break while cutting veteran’s benefits he is representing his own wallet, not yours.

(Republican heckles from side) That is unless you are sitting over there with that bunch, who obviously aren’t hurting.

Because that is what we have had in office for 14 yrs, a cookie-cutter Republican who votes over 90% of the time with President Bush. If you are proud of what George W. Bush has done to our country, then by all means vote for Exxon Ed Whitfield.

But if you are embarrassed that we are the only industrialized nation in the world that doesn’t provide healthcare for it’s citizens, and if you are angry that Big Oil holds our economy hostage, and if your furious that the richest among us own the politicians that are supposed to represent us, then vote for me, Heather Ryan and support the Democratic ticket.

I am Heather Ryan and I am just an ordinary person during an extra-ordinary time. I am a wife, and mother, previous labor union member, and a veteran, which means that even I have more experience than Sarah Palin.

You have heard a lot of talk about change in this election. Its something we desperately need in Kentucky’s First Congressional District, and in fact in America. Friends, if you always do what you did, then you will always get what you have gotten. So please, vote Democrat on Nov. 4th. Change isn’t a campaign slogan, it is a neccesity.

Thank you.

Now for some pics of St. John’s!! Here is Heather, and her daughter Heaven, everyone’s favorite Mitch McConnell antagonist arriving at the picnic. (McConnell was a no-show):

Here is Bruce Lunsford, McConnell’s opponent who did show to meet with the voters of Western Kentucky:

Here is our opponent, Exxon Eddie, looking worried as he arrived in an empty tractor-trailer with his face and name on the side, burning $4.10 a gallon diesel while Paducah Trucking Companies are closing their doors. Of course, with his Exxon and Chevron Stock he will get it back. The taxpayers of Western Kentucky won’t:

Here is Exxon Eddie on the stage, trying to explain away $4.00 a gallon gas, and voting against Healthcare for Children:

Here is the reaction of Democrats as Exxon Eddie states how he has worked for Energy Independence. From left to right, Former Congressman and State Senate candidate Carroll Hubbard, Bruce Lunsford, Heather Ryan, and Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo:

Here is Heather, doing what she does like no other, calling the Republicans out on their sorry records of representing us:

Here is Carroll Hubbard, showing he still has what it takes to deliver a knockout speech:

Here is the leader of the Kentucky Democratic Party, Jennifer Moore, who is doing an awesome job and as Carroll Hubbard reminded us at Breakfast is the prettiest leader of the KDP ever:

It was a long, and great day for Democrats. Heather fired everyone up as usual, and better yet got under some Republican skin. As is the case every time people hear Heather for the first time, we signed up many new volunteers and recieved several contributions.

Please, help us in this race. This seat is ripe for the picking if we get the funds, and Heather would be an awesome Democrat with a spine in the Congress. Just ask Russ Feingold!! We are fighting hard here, and Exxon Eddie knows he is vulnerable. Go here to expand our Congressional majority!!:

We need your support!!

 

As another month begins, it’s time for us to pause and take note of the constantly shifting picture of 2008’s Senate races. You know what to do: Rank the senate races (as far down the list as you wish to go) in order of their likelihood of flipping.

Crossposted from Minnesota Progress

Iraq War Vet and Second District Democratic Nominee Steve Sarvi is up with the first ad of the MN-02 race. It’s a solid ad, I’m not quite as impressed with it as I am with Ashwin Madia’s ads but it’s a good ad that defines Sarvi in the terms that Sarvi wants before Kline has a chance to define him. He also defines Kline before Kline can which is important since despite being the incumbent, Kline is not well known.

It’s essentially the same strategy that Tim Walz used in 2006. If you want to him run this ad you can donate here.

And if your wondering why you should help Sarvi win I wrote about John Kline’s out of touch record  awhile ago. Learn about the Kline Record and donate to Steve Sarvi.

The following is the first of two parts reviewing the fun, the interesting and the just plain odd in Oregon’s Voters’ Pamphlet this year.  Think of this as a bit of humor to brighten your days.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Oregon Voters’ Pamphlet is currently posted at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp.html.

Please note that this is the “Military/Overseas” edition and as such is a bit rough (it is basically scanned in PDFs).

For each candidate I will present their main message (for Rs and any fun third party folks), and my thoughts on what they are really saying.  Candidates are Rs unless otherwise indicated.

President:

McCain

What he says: Washington in broken.

What he means: I broke Washington and you fools expect me to fix it.

Nader (Peace Party)

What he says: Only I can fight for these issues that you care about.

What he means: I can do this because I apparently don’t read any newspapers and have a huge ego.

US Senate:

Smith

What he says: I am a centrist who supports both the Republican and Democrat (he spells it that way) parties.

What he means: HA HA, you fools, I love playing moderate for two years so I can be a typical Repub for four.

US Congress

2nd District

Walden

What he says: Being environmentally responsible is good for all of us.

What he means: Drilling and clear-cutting are good for all of us.

3rd District

Lopez

What she says: Local government is best.

What she means: But I want to be part of the federal government because they have all the $.

5th District

Erickson

What he says: I ran a business so I can run a government.

What he means: I hope to God people don’t remember how much of a hypocrite I am, I mean that trip to Cuba was a bit shady…

Secretary of State

Dancer

What he says: I want a nonpartisan Secretary of State.

What he means: Because that’s the only way a Republican will ever win this office.

State Treasurer:

Alley

What he says: I have run a business so I can run the state.

What he means: I hope to God people don’t know I ran my business (Pixelworks) into the ground (The price of the stock has dropped from $9/share two years ago to $1.60 now and was worth $60/share in 2004).

State Legislature:

I only profile selected races here due to space (e.g. those that are most humorous.

State Senate:

2nd District

Atkinson

What he says: I am a smart, independent and principled leader.

What he means: Yet I managed to shoot myself in the knee while fixing a friend’s bike.

14th District (My District)

Michaels

What she says; Vote by mail is rife with voter fraud (it’s not actually).

What she means: I don’t like vote by mail because it means Republicans lose.

State House:

9th District

Pearn

What he says: Government regulation has cost Oregon jobs.

What he means: I hate government, I want to drown it in a bath tub.

22nd District

Chereck (link to his bat-shit crazy post: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/nov42008/military_vp/chere_t.pdf)

What he says: Following God is the way to govern.

What he means: I want a theocracy.

Note: This guy is f-ing crazy. Among other things, he lists that he has a social security card and is married.  He also lists “The Bible” as part of his education, as well as “Pesticide application recertification training”.

36th District

Oppenheimer

What he says: My ideas should become law.

What he means: I know I have no chance to win, so why don’t I just propose the craziest things possible?

52nd District

Lindland

What he says: I’m not a normal politician.

What he means: If people f-k with me, I’ll use all my UFC skills against them, like in this video (except I won’t lose this time):

Let me know what you think…

As many of you may know, grassroots Democrats are fighting hard to retake our district in Kentucky’s First Congressional District. It was taken with Exxon Ed Whitfield’s “Contract with America” which devolved into a “Culture of Corruption” after generations of Democrat control, and will be taken back for our party again one day soon. No matter what the outcome of any election, our solemn oath is that we will all continue the fight for what we believe in.  

That is why here at Ryan for Kentucky, we want to just say thanks to Russ Feingold. His record of accomplishment in the representation of every Progressive in America has been impeccable.

Russ Feingold has long led the defense of our civil liberties due to the “War on Terror”, starting with thePatriot Act and going all the way to FISA Capitulation. He even tried to explain it so everyone could easily understand:

He was an early fighter for healthcare for our children, and in fact all of us. He has fought for  fair wages, and the EFCA.

His Progressive Patriots Fund helps many grassroots Democrats all across the nation. We were honored to be selected by his organization in one such election in the first place, but were lucky enough to actually win. What makes it even sweeter is that Russ Feingold represents the kind of leadership we wish to offer.

So to Russ Feingold we say thanks to not only a distinguished career of fighting for many of us out of state, and for being a true leader within our party helping Democrats who are fighting a tough race and truly needed his help. Once again, he delivered for us!!

Please help the “Progressive Patriots” of Western Kentucky build on it!!:

In 2006, we went a long way towards defeating corruption in the Congress. The former Republican Congress, led by such men as Tom Delay was shown the door by American voters. Despite this, we still have a long way to go towards defeating Corruption in the Congress. As long as men like Exxon Ed Whitfield are allowed to haunt the hallowed halls of Congress, we have work to do.

We have already seen how Exxon Eddie and his staff believe in theft and vandalism. We have seen how Exxon Eddie attacks opponents for supporting battered women and children. However, Exxon Eddie’s Corruption runs even deeper than that.

We can all see how Exxon Eddie owns much Exxon and Chevron stock. That in itself is not corrupt, but when you own stock and vote in the interests of that stock over the interests of your constituents, that is corrupt.

Although Kentucky has a multitude of farmland and could profit handsomely from investment in renewables, Exxon Eddie votes his stock options and against any kind of investment in Kentucky farmland by researching the fuels of the future. It seems his own profits are much more important to him than the betterment of our district. I am not against any American being successful, and making a profit, but to do so at the expense of those you have spent thousands of dollars of special interest money from Big Oil to attack opponents is corrupt.

Even more disturbing for 47 million Americans are the campaign contributions from Drug, Health, and Insurance industries. This insures that Exxon Ed Whitfield with do anything in his power to insure that the power to decide who gets healthcare in country will fall to the Drug, Health, and Insurance industries. Even healthcare for children is off the table for Exxon Eddie.

Now, call me what you will, but I think it is corrupt to take money from such organizations, and then deny healthcare coverage to millions of American CHILDREN!! From a party that will run on character, and “Christian Values”, I simply ask. What did Jesus say to us about the treatment of Children? Do you really believe it is Christian to deny healthcare to any child?

While we are talking character, I simply ask what kind of person, or campaign attacks and mocks a candidate for doing a fundraiser for a center that cares for battered women and children. I submit that Ed Whitfield should be there too, asking what he can do for some of the people that need it the most in this district. Not mocking those who do.

I will tell you all that this election DOES come down to character. On one side we have the character of a wife, mother, veteran, and fellow citizen of the First Congressional District of Kentucky, who lives and works among us and knows the battles we face because she faces them too. On the other side, we have a career politician, a Washington insider that has been corrupted by the lust for money and power that comes from being in that town too long. His campaign will say and do anything as evidenced by their very actions in this election. While we will fight them in the arena of ideas and character in any forum, we would rather lose than display the childish, unprofessional conduct that has marked their campaign.

We can win with the resources to run just some T.V. and radio. We have Whitfield running scared, and I honestly beieve by their recent actions they have some internal polling that isn’t too hot. Make a real diffence and a real statement this year. Support new Leadership!!:

If we get T.V., we win!!

The following diary discusses whom is behind the campaigns to pass and defeat every single one of Oregon’s ballot measures this fall.  It discusses who is funding them and what their political leanings are.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Data from: ORESTAR

Measure Summary:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Who’s Involved?:

Note: I am doing this down here because some groups support/oppose multiple measures and so it’s simpler to do it this way.  Also note that the person listed as “leading” each group is simply the treasurer of the committee.

Committee to Protect Local Control of Schools-No on 58-led by known Democratic Activist Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Defend Oregon-Yes on 56 and 57, No on 58-64, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $500k.

Expenditures: $620k.

COH: -$120k.

Largest Contributor: Oregon State Council of Service Employees-$455k.

Don’t Pay to the Test-No on 60, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Don’t Silence our Voice-No on 64, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

No Way to Fight Crime-No on 61, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Oregon Anti-Crime Alliance PAC, No on 57, Yes on 61 and 62, led by Kevin Mannix (R):

Contributions: $76k.

Expenditures: $60k.

COH: $16k.

Largest Contributor: Loren Parks, a crazy “sex therapist” originally from Oregon, now lives in Vegas-$75k.

Oregonians Against Unfair Elections, No on 65, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $2,250.

Expenditures: $1,500.

COH: $750.

Largest Contributor: Loan from PacWest Communications-$2,250.

Oregonians Against Unsafe Housing, No on 63, led by Kevin Neely:

Contributions: $150k.

Expenditures: $10k.

COH: $140k.

Largest Contributor: Barnes Labor Management Cooperative Committee-$100k.

PAC 483, No on 59 and 64, led by Donna Bandeen, a longtime D activist:

Contributions: $9k.

Expenditures: $500.

COH: $8.5k.

Largest Contributor: Portlanders for Accountability (a union-backed group formed to fight changes to Portland’s city charter last year)-$5k.

The Better Way to Fight Crime Commitee, Yes on 57, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Voting Matters, Yes on 56, led by Kevin Neely, minimal COH.

Vote Yes on 65 Make Every Voter Count, Yes on 65, led by Michael Greenfield, a management consultant, minimal COH.

Let me know what you think.  There may be other groups, the Taxpayer Association of Oregon for one has yet to officially jump in, but this is it for now.