Tag: KS-01

Here’s a pair of polls in deep red GOP districts that you don’t see polled every day: Kansas’ 1st and 4th CDs, the state’s two most conservative districts.

First, KS-01: SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):

James Bordonaro (D): 13

Jerry Moran (R-inc): 77

Other: 4

(MoE: ±3.5%)

At a PVI of R+20.3, Kansas’ sprawling 4th CD is the 9th most Republican district in the nation. Moran won by a 79-20 margin in 2006, and it looks like nothing much will change this year.

And now for the Wichita-based 4th district. SurveyUSA (8/17-19, likely voters):

Donald Betts (D): 30

Todd Tiahrt (R-inc): 61

Other: 5

(MoE: ±4.2%)

The 4th CD is a tough district for any Dem to crack, but it’s obviously not the hopeless case that the 1st is. At a PVI of R+12.2, the 4th CD hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since 1992, when voters gave Rep. Dan Glickman his final term in office.

Donald Betts, an African-American state Senator with a charmed political career in Kansas politics so far, is giving the district a go, but it’ll be very difficult for him to close the gap, especially with only $68K left in his campaign account. Still, anytime you have a state senator running for higher office, the race is worth watching.

These are all states with filing deadlines in June

The numbers after each are a) Cook PVI and b) A rating of the district based on a model I created details here – basically a logistic model based on a lot of demographics; the number is the predicted probability of being Republican, based solely on the demographics (details here .  I also have a model that includes Cook PVI, but, well….I give you the Cook number too.

KS has 4 congressional districts: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans

NH has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

OK has 5 congressional districts: 1 Democrats and 4 Republicans

RI has 2 congressional districts: Both  Democrats

WA has 9 congressional districts: 6 Democrats and 3 Republicans

The districts held by Democrats are



                                     Confirmed

dist    Cook Prob Repub Incumbent     Challenger? rating

KS-02    R+7    .64      Boyda          Yes          Vul

KS-03    R+4    .50      Moore          Yes          Mostly safe

NH-01    R+0    .78      Shea-Porter    Yes          Probably safe  

NH-02    D+3    .84      Hodes          Yes          Hard to say

OK-02    R+5    .25      Boren          No           Safe

RI-01    D+16   .38      Kennedy        No           Safe

RI-02    D+13   .51      Langevin       No           Safe

WA-01    D+7    .46      Inslee         Yes          Safe

WA-02    D+3    .61      Larsen         No           Safe

WA-03    D+0    .61      Baird          No           Safe

WA-06    D+6    .33      Dicks          No           Safe

WA-07    D+30   .15      McDermott      No           Safe

WA-09    D+6    .26      Smith          No           Safe

Those held by Republicans

KS-01 R+20 0.70

KS-01 is most of KS, except for the eastern and southeastern parts, bordering OK, CO, and NE

Moran, first elected in 1996, has won easily, often without a Democratic opponent. In 2006 he got 79% against John Doll, although Doll raised only $62,000.

This year, Doll might run again, but the only confirmed James Bordonaro (no web site yet)

KS-04 R+12 .48

KS-04 is in southern KS, towards the eastern part, bordering OK

Tiahrt first elected in 1994, has won easily against opponents with very little money

This year, he faces Donald Betts

OK-01 R+13 .24

OK-01 is an oddly shaped district in the northeastern part of OK; it includes Tulsa and a narrow strip north to the KS border, and then a wider section south of Tulsa

Sullivan, first elected in 2002, has gotten steadily larger shares of the vote

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-03 R+18 .50

OK-03 is the panhandle of OK and the northwestern part of the rest of the state, bordeing CO, TX, and KS.

Lucas, first elected in 1994, has mostly won easily against underfunded opponents

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-04 R+13 .40

OK-04 is the southwestern part of OK, bordering TX and including souther suburbs of Oklahoma City

Cole, first elected in 2002, won a close race in 2002 but has not had a well-funded challenger since then

There is no confirmed challenger

OK-05 R+12 .12

OK-05 is shaped more or less like a stair in central OK, including Oklahoma City

Fallin, first elected in 2006, won 60-37.

The confirmed challenger is Bert Smith

WA-04 R+13 .55

WA-04 is the center of the state including Yakima, and bordering OR

Hastings, first elected in 1994, has won reasonably easily even against opponents with some funding

The only confirmed challenger is George Fearing

WA-05 R+7 .50

WA-05 is the eastern part of the state, bordering Canada, OR, and ID

Rodgers, first elected in 2004, had a tough race in 2006, beating Peter Goldmark 56-44 and spending almost $2 million (Goldmark spent about $1.2 million

There is no confirmed challenger

WA-08 D+2  .59

WA-08 includes the eastern edge of Seattle and other land east of Lake Washington

Reichert, first elected in 2004, had a close race in 2006 against Darcy Burner.  

Burner is running again, and has a good chance

Summary:

Kansas – I’m worried about Boyda, although she beat Ryun last time.  

NH – Shea Porter won 51-49 against an incumbent, while raising less than $300,000 (her opponent, Jeb Bradley, had more than triple that).  She should win again

OK – looks like everyone is pretty safe

RI – both congressmen are safe

WA – Reichert is vulnerable