Tag: Kendrick Meek

Rasmussen (10/19, likely voters, 8/17 in parens) (primary numbers):

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (29)

Charlie Crist (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 9 (10)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Kendrick Meek (D): 31 (30)

Marco Rubio (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 8 (8)

Not sure: 15 (19)

(MoE: ±3%)

Charlie Crist (R): 49 (53)

Marco Rubio (R): 35 (31)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 12 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Wouldn’t you know it… minutes after hitting “post” on the new Quinnipiac poll of Florida’s Senate race, there’s a new Rasmussen too. In the primary, Rasmussen sees the same dwindling Charlie Crist advantage as Quinnipac; where Quinnipiac saw it 50-35 edge for Crist (down from 55-26), Rasmussen sees it a 49-35 race (down from 53-31).

Where they differ is how they see the general, especially the Kendrick Meek/Marco Rubio matchup. Where Quinnipiac gives Meek a 3-point edge, Rasmussen sees Rubio not only beating Meek by 15, but actually overperforming Crist (who beats Meek by 12, down from a 19-point margin before). Looks like Rasmussen’s aggressive likely voter screen in the general (versus Quinnipiac’s use of registered voters) is picking up lots of conservative diehards.

RaceTracker: FL-Sen

Quinnipiac (10/12-18, registered voters, 8/12-17 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 31

Charlie Crist (R): 51

Undecided: 14

Kendrick Meek (D): 36

Marco Rubio (R): 33

Undecided: 28

(MoE: ±3%)

Charlie Crist (R): 50 (55)

Marco Rubio (R): 35 (26)

Undecided: 12 (18)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Alex Sink (D): 32 (34)

Bill McCollum (R): 36 (38)

Undecided: 27 (25)

(MoE: ±3%)

Bill McCollum (R): 43

Paula Dockery (R): 7

Undecided: 47

(MoE: ±4.9%)

There has been a general sense of alarm leaking out of the Charlie Crist camp in the last week or so, and it seems to have mostly to do with that alleged Chamber of Commerce poll that gave Crist only a 44-30 edge over Marco Rubio (although that poll has yet to be released). Well, the alarms will probably get cranked up a notch, now we have a public poll that shows almost the same thing: Quinnipiac’s new Florida poll shows Rubio pulling within almost a close a margin, trailing Crist by 15. Although here, there are fewer undecideds and Crist is still over the 50% mark — but given the trajectory of the two candidates, and Rubio’s sudden fundraising competitiveness, Crist seems poised to continue losing ground. Crist may be able to take some comfort in his still-high favorables, though: 58/30 (although Rubio is liked too and has room for growth, at 24/11).

Although Quinnipiac has polled Florida a number of times, this is their first time running general election head-to-heads. The 20-point spread between Crist and Democrat Kendrick Meek isn’t a surprise; it’s right in line with Pollster.com’s 50-31 average on the race. What is a surprise is the Meek/Rubio matchup, which Meek actually leads by 3. That’s quite different than the 43-30 edge that Rubio enjoyed in August according to Rasmussen, who seem to be the only pollster who’ve been testing Meek vs. Rubio lately (although R2K found Meek beating Rubio 31-22 way back in January). I think it may be time for us to start rooting for the Club for Democratic Growth to get involved on Rubio’s behalf.

The governor’s race still looks pretty sleepy, with little movement from last time (although what movement occurred benefits Sink, who’s down by 4 now), and lots of undecideds (in fact, an increasing number of them). Alex Sink is still surprisingly little-known, at 23/8, but she’s Balloon Boy and Octomom rolled into one compared with state Sen. Paula Dockery, who looks poised to enter the Republican primary against Bill McCollum but comes in with favorables of 5/3.

RaceTracker: FL-Sen | FL-Gov

• AZ-Sen: This is good news for John McCain… ‘s opponent. Rodney Glassman, Tucson city councilor, has formed an exploratory committee to vie for the 2010 Democratic Senate nomination. With the state’s top-tier candidates avoiding the race, an up-and-comer looking to increase his statewide profile like Glassman is probably the best we’ll do here. (H/t Nonpartisan.)

• CT-Sen: You just know that the moment pro wrestling CEO Linda McMahon launched her Senate run, the nation’s Democratic opposition researchers all started doing a merry jig knowing how much work would be available for them. The first wave is already out, leading off with a clips reel of “PG-rated” (McMahon’s words) WWE highlights including simulated rape and necrophilia. Meanwhile, newly minted teabagger ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, realizing that he doesn’t have a lock on the necrophile vote any more, has continued his march to the right, begging forgiveness for his previous support of EFCA and cap and trade.

• FL-Sen: I always thought the idea of a Corrine Brown challenge to Kendrick Meek in the Democratic Senate primary was weird from the outset, but despite putting up some decent fundraising numbers in the third quarter, last Friday she pulled the plug on any bid. Rep. Brown will run for re-election in the dark-blue 3rd, where she’s been since 1992.

Meanwhile, Charlie Crist is actually starting to sweat his once sure-thing Senate bid. Although no one has actually leaked it, rumors keep persisting about that Chamber of Commerce poll that has Crist posting only a 44-30 lead over Marco Rubio in the GOP primary. Also worrisome for the Crist camp: much of that $1 million that Rubio pulled in was from in-state small donors — you know, the kind that actually vote — rather than out-of-state movement conservative bigwigs. With that in mind, Crist is already tapping into his big cash stash, airing radio spots in the conservative Ft. Myers market touting his government-slashing abilities.

• IL-Sen: Departing (well, maybe) Rep. Danny Davis gave his endorsement in the Democratic primary to former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson, rather than to establishment candidate state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. Fellow Rep. Bobby Rush has already endorsed Jackson.

• KS-Sen: Dan Glickman, who teased Politico earlier this summer with some vague whispers of suggestions of hints that he might run for Senate, says he’ll step down from his current gig (chairman of the MPAA) in September 2010. If he sticks to that timetable, that clearly puts him out of the running for any return to politics this cycle. At 64, and facing what is now an almost implacably red state back at home, Glickman sounds like he’s done with elective office for good, saying he thinks he’ll “end up in the nonprofit or academic world.” (D)

• MA-Sen: Rep. Michael Capuano is way behind the polls of the actual voters, but he’s closing in on a majority of the state’s House delegation in his corner for the Democratic Senate special election nod. Today, Rep. Stephen Lynch, the state’s least liberal House member and a surprise non-participant in the Senate primary, endorsed Capuano; he joins Reps. Jim McGovern, John Tierney, and Barney Frank.

• SC-Sen: Democratic attorney Chad McGowan made it official; he launched his Senate candidacy against Jim DeMint. He’s the most credible candidate who has stepped up so far.

• IL-Gov: The Paul Simon Institute on Public Policy issued a poll last week of the Democratic gubernatorial primary, finding a lot of undecideds (and “someone elses”) but that incumbent Pat Quinn leads state comptroller Dan Hynes 34-17.

• KS-Gov: Democratic state party chair Larry Gates squashed earlier rumors; he won’t be getting into the gubernatorial race (or any statewide race), leaving the Dems still candidate-less.

• NJ-Gov: More golden admissions from Chris Christie, from a video recorded several years ago but released right now for maximum effect by Team Corzine. In Christie’s words:

Listen, I plead guilty to having raised money for Governor George W. Bush because I thought he was the best person to be President of the United States. And I did it in a completely appropriate fashion and enthusiastically for the President….

There’s no mystery to the fact that I was appointed to this job because, in part, I had a relationship with the President of the United States.

Anybody who receives a political appointment — I am a political appointee — there’s going to be some measure of politics involved with that appointment.

And Christie may be sending the wrong message right now, as revelations fly about his luxurious travel overspending while US Attorney: now he’s saying as Governor, his top advisers will be able to travel with fewer restrictions than under the current administration, at taxpayers’ expense, naturally. Meanwhile, over the weekend Jon Corzine picked up the endorsement of the two biggest fish in the news pond, the New York Times and the Phildelphia Inquirer. (Christie can boast about the East Brunswick Home News Tribune, however.)

• VA-Gov: Speaking of endorsements, Creigh Deeds got the big one too, from the Washington Post, and in very unambiguous fashion as well (recall, of course, that the WaPo endorsement in the primary was the corner-turning moment for Deeds). Meanwhile, while it doesn’t seem set in stone, there are reports that Barack Obama will campaign on Deeds’ behalf after all.

• FL-08: With the current field against Rep. Alan Grayson looking pretty underwhelming, Republican Winter Park physician Ken Miller, who had been considering a run in the 24th (where the primary opposition is of a higher-caliber), has decided to move over to the 8th instead. Which isn’t to say that the never-before-elected Miller seems terribly, uh, whelming.

• FL-19: One of the likeliest candidates to run for the seat being vacated by Robert Wexler has already declined the shot: state Sen. Jeremy Ring won’t run. While he cited family concerns, he did also point to the fact that little of his district overlaps with the 19th. Fellow state Sen. Ted Deutch is starting to take on front-runner status.

• IN-07: Butler University professor and perennial candidate (including the 2004 Senate race against Evan Bayh) Marvin Scott is back, and this time he’s going up against Rep. Andre Carson in the Indianapolis-based 7th.

• NY-23: The independent expenditures are flying in the 23rd, with $100K from the SEIU in favor of Bill Owens, $9,700 from the Club for Growth $9,500 from the Susan B. Anthony List, both on behalf of Conservative Doug Hoffman, and $123K from the NRCC against Owens (which includes $22K for a poll from aptly-named POS — so if we don’t see that soon, we’ll know the NRCC doesn’t like the results). The SEIU money is paying for anti-Dede Scozzafava radio spots, another blow for GOPer Scozzafava, who had been expected to get some labor support. Scozzafava did get the somewhat belated endorsement of Long Island’s Rep. Peter King, though, one of the few other remaining labor-friendly GOPers. Finally, rumors abound in the rightosphere (starting with the Tolbert Report) that Mike Huckabee, who’ll be addressing the state Conservative Party in Syracuse soon, won’t actually be endorsing Hoffman.

• OH-02: Rep. Jean Schmidt, who had to beat back a primary challenge in 2008 from state Rep. Todd Brinkman, will face another primary bid from an elected official in 2010: Warren County Commissioner Mike Kilburn. Kilburn says “there’s a movement to elect more conservative politicians to Washington.” Because, uh, Schmidt isn’t conservative enough?

• OK-05: A sort-of big name is getting into the field in the open seat race left behind by Rep. Mary Fallin (running for Oklahoma governor): Corporation Commissioner Jeff Cloud, who opened up his exploratory committee. He starts off lagging behind in fundraising, though, as state Rep. Mike Thompson and former state Sen. Kevin Calvey have already been running for a while  now.

• Mayors: After a closer-than-expected primary, Boston mayor Tom Menino is still leading in the polls. The 16-year incumbent leads city councilor Michael Flaherty 52-32 in a Boston Globe poll (down from a 61-23 lead in a May poll).

• DSCC: Barack Obama seems like he’s finally shifting into campaign mode. He’ll be headlining a DSCC fundraiser in Miami next week.

• Voting Rights: After spending years as a political football that gets kicked around from bill to bill, it looks like the push to get Washington DC a full voting Representative is resurfacing again. This time, it may be attached to the 2010 defense appropriations bill. (Watch the Republicans vote against it anyway.)

• Fundraising: Pollster.com has some handy graphics displaying 3rd quarter receipts, expenditures, and cash on hand graphed against each other for Senate candidates. (We’ll have our own Senate chart up today, hopefully; if you missed James’s House chart over the weekend, it’s here.)

• CO-Sen: Here’s an amateur-level mistake from the Bennet campaign: electioneering in the Denver public schools (where Michael Bennet used to be Supernintendo before being appointed Senator). The campaign sent mailings to a school asking for the principal’s support and fliers were given to principals at a district workshop.

• FL-Sen: The Kendrick Meek campaign is touting its own fishy poll that says that Meek leads Charlie Crist… among voters who know both of them. The lead is 45-43 for Meek among those 25% of the sample who know who the heck Meek is. In the larger sample, Crist is up 47-31.

• KS-Sen: Kansas Senate news three digests in a row? I’m as surprised as you are. Anyway, retired advertising executive and journalist Charles Schollenberger confirmed that he will run for the Senate. With seemingly no Dems higher up the totem pole interested in the race, Schollenberger may wind up carrying the flag.

• NC-Sen: It’s not quite confirmed, but the rumor mill is churning up stories that youthful former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham is moving to formally jump into the North Carolina Senate race. SoS Elaine Marshall is already in the Democratic primary field.

• PA-Sen: There’s an unexpected fourth Democratic participant in the Senate primary all of a sudden: Doris Smith-Ribner, a recently retired Commonwealth Court (which apparently is one of two intermediate appellate courts in Pennsylvania; don’t ask me why there are two) judge for two decades. Her presence could prove nettlesome to Rep. Joe Sestak, by eating a bit into his share of liberal anti-Arlen Specter votes in what’s likely to be a close primary. (“Fourth,” you say? State Rep. Bill Kortz is running too, and has been for many months.)

• AZ-Gov: He was probably seeing the same terrible polls that everyone else was, and ex-Governor Fife Symington decided to put the kibbosh on a gubernatorial comeback. Instead, Symington endorsed not the current Governor, Jan Brewer, but one of her minor opponents, former state GOP chair John Munger.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman scored a victory of sorts with the publication of a story titled “Meg Whitman’s voting record not as bad as originally portrayed.” It turns out she was registered at several points in California in the 1980s and 1990s, but there’s still no indication that she actually voted during this period.

Meanwhile, Whitman’s primary rival ex-Rep. Tom Campbell may get a big leg up: rumors persist that he may get picked as California’s new Lt. Governor (once John Garamendi gets elected to CA-10). I’d initially thought that was a way of scraping him out of the gubernatorial primary and giving him a door prize, but it could give him a higher profile and bully pulpit to compensate for his vast financial disadvantage as he stays in the race. Campbell was Arnold Schwarzenegger’s Finance Director for a while, and they operate in the same centrist space, so maybe Ahnold would do him the favor? (Of course, he’d still have to survive confirmation by the Dem-controlled legislature, who might be reluctant to promote Campbell, who they rightly see as the most dangerous general election opponent.)

• FL-Gov: It had seemed like state Sen. Paula Dockery, who threatened repeatedly during the spring to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, had faded back into the woodwork. However, she’s front and center again today, saying that she’s “leaning toward” running and giving herself a three-week timeline (she put off the decision because of her husband’s surgery this summer). Another minor embarrassment for her primary opponent, AG Bill McCollum: the co-chair of his campaign, former state GOP chair Alex Cardenas, had to explain that, no, he didn’t actually host a fundraiser for Democratic rival Alex Sink. (It was hosted by Democratic partners in Cardenas’s lobbying firm.)

• NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have sufficiently reduced each other’s statures that the state’s largest newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger, took what may be an unprecedented step, and endorsed the independent candidate in the race: Chris Daggett. I still can’t see this giving Daggett the momentum to break 20%, but more Daggett votes are good, as they seem to come mostly out of the Christie column. Meanwhile, Chris Christie got an endorsement he may not especially want in the blue state of New Jersey — from the Family Research Council (who also just endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election). Also, Christie is living large after getting an endorsement that may carry more weight, from the New Jersey Restaurant Association.

• VA-Gov (pdf): There’s one new poll of VA-Gov to report today: Mason-Dixon, and they come in with a 48-40 edge for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds, closely tracking today’s Pollster.com average of 51-43. The poll finds Deeds getting only 81% of the African-American vote (with 9% to McD), far too little, especially in combination with what PPP‘s Tom Jensen is seeing, as he teases that he’s projecting abysmal black turnout of 12% in the coming election. At any rate, Deeds is now touting his underdog status in fundraising e-mails, and is alluding to more possible visits from Barack Obama in the stretch run.

• FL-20: Here’s an understatement: Republican candidate Robert Lowry, hoping to defeat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in this D+13 district, conceded it was a “mistake” to shoot at a target labeled “DWS” while at a Southeast Republican Club gathering at a gun range.

• MN-06: As state Sen. Tarryl Clark seems to be building a fundraising and labor endorsement edge, her primary opponent for the Democratic nomination, Maureen Reed, says she won’t follow traditional decorum and abide by the DFL endorsement. Reed (a former member of the Independence Party) says she’ll keep open the option of taking the fight all the way to the primary, a reversal of her position from months earlier (although from before Clark got into the race and Elwyn Tinklenberg left). (UPDATE: The Reed campaign writes in to say that the Minnesota Public Radio story that underpins this story is incorrect and that Reed never stated whether or not she would abide by the DFL endorsement.)

• NC-11: One reddish southern district where the Republicans are still at square one on recruitment is the 11th. Businessman Jeff Miller said that he won’t challenge sophomore Dem Heath Shuler.

• NY-15: As ethics allegations take a toll against long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, he’s getting a primary challenge… from his former campaign director. Vince Morgan, now a banker, says “it’s time for a change.”

• OH-17: Republicans may have found someone to run in the 17th against Rep. Tim Ryan: businessman and Air Force vet Bill Johnson, who’s now exploring the race and will decide in December. Ryan probably isn’t too worried, as he’s won most of his races with over 75%, in this D+12 district.

• PA-04: Pennsylvania Western District US Attorney Mary Buchanan is reportedly considering running as a Republican against Dem sophomore Jason Altmire. (Hopefully she isn’t violating the Hatch Act too much while she considers it.) Buchanan was one of the USAs who weren’t fired in the Bush-era purge (in fact, she allegedly helped consult on the list of those who were fired). State House minority whip Mike Turzai has been reputed to be the GOP’s desired recruit here, but Buchanan’s flack says that Turzai is focused on winning back GOP control of the state House in 2010 instead.

• PA-11: Attorney and hedge fund manager Chris Paige is the first Republican to take on Paul Kanjorski (or Corey O’Brien, if Kanjorski goes down in the Dem primary). Still no word on whether Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta is interested in yet another whack at the race.

• Supreme Courts (pdf): News from two different state supreme court races? Sure, why not. In Pennyslvania, there’s another Dane & Associates poll out, of a hotly contested 2010 race for a state supreme court seat; Democrat Jack Panella leads Republican Joan Orie Melvin 38-35. Also, in Texas, Democrat Bill Moody, who came close to winning a seat in 2006 (better than any other Dem statewide candidate that year), will try again in 2010, and he has an interesting new campaign gimmick: he’s going to tour the state in a big orange blimp.

• FL-Sen: Here’s something of an ooops from Bob Mendendez at the DSCC: his comments last week where he seemed to leave out the possibility of a pickup in the open seat race in Florida prompted former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre to jump into the race, saying “You can’t write off Florida” (or at least that’s what Ferre said was the impetus, although that doesn’t seem like the kind of thing you do with less than a week of planning). This week, the DSCC is saying that Menendez misspoke and that they’re pleased with Kendrick Meek’s fundraising so far.

• KS-Sen: You might remember that yesterday we said that Democratic state Treasurer Dennis McKinney hadn’t ruled out running for Senate. However, a source close to McKinney tells us that McKinney (who was appointed after previous GOP Treasurer Lynn Jenkins was elected to KS-02) plans to run for Treasurer in 2010.

• CT-Gov: Jodi Rell is facing some possible ethical trouble; Democrats accuse her of spending state money for political purposes by hiring pollsters to do focus groups on the state budget, and have referred the matter to the Office of State Ethics. The polling seemed to veer into politics in terms of message-testing and looking at perceptions of AG Richard Blumenthal, a possible Democratic opponent. Rell has formed an exploratory committee for re-election, but we’re still waiting to see if she follows through; stuff like this may help chip away at her veneer of inevitability.

• MN-Gov: Here’s a first: someone’s not running for Minnesota governor. St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman decided against trying to wade into the crowded Democratic primary field, saying his work as mayor wasn’t done.

• NJ-Gov: One more pollster finds a super-tight gubernatorial race in New Jersey. Neighborhood Research, a Republican pollster (but not working for the Christie campaign) finds Chris Christie leading Jon Corzine only 36-35, with Chris Dagget pulling in 11. Their previous poll last month gave Christie a 4-point edge. Corzine’s campaign has apparently succeeded in making Christie just as widely disliked as Corzine — Christie’s favorables have dropped to 28%, equal to Corzine’s. Also, it doesn’t look like Sarah Palin will get to ride to Chris Christie’s rescue: the Christie and McDonnell camps have both given a “thanks but not thanks” to her offer of help, according to Politico.

• PA-Gov: GrassrootsPA, the rightosphere’s Pennsylvania outpost, commissioned a poll through Dane & Associates to see how Republican AG Tom Corbett matches up against his Democratic rivals (no Jim Gerlach head-to-heads, unfortunately). The sample size is a teeny-weeny 200, but the numbers line up with other polling: the closest race is with fellow statewide official, Auditor Jack Wagner, who trails Corbett 41-37. Corbett leads Philly businessman Tom Knox 44-36, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato 44-32, and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 53-27.

• VA-Gov: Lots of poll watchers were waiting for the newest Washington Post poll of the Virginia race to come out, to see if it gave more favorable numbers to Creigh Deeds than we saw out of recent Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls. WaPo tended to be a bit more favorable to Deeds, but they’re seeing what everyone else is seeing: Bob McDonnell now leads 53-44. Looks like whatever traction Deeds got post-thesis-gate has drifted away.

• WY-Gov: The main story in Wyoming is that everyone is still waiting to see whether Dave Freudenthal challenges Wyoming’s term limits law and goes for a third term. Former GOP state Rep. Ron Micheli is running regardless, as we reported recently, but there are a few other behind-the-scenes moves going on. State House Speaker Colin Simpson (and son of Sen. Alan Simpson), at some point, filed to open an exploratory committee (and would probably be GOP frontrunner if he got in). On the Democratic side, state Sen. Mike Massie has been touring the state rounding up support (with Freudenthal’s blessing), but says he won’t create an exploratory committee until he knows Freudenthal isn’t running.

• CA-03: Elk Grove city councilor Gary Davis has dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination in the 3rd, to go up against Rep. Dan Lungren (who squeaked by in 2008). Davis didn’t seem to be making much fundraising headway against physician Ami Bera and public utility executive Bill Slaton.

• CA-10: Republicans are hanging on to some glimmers of hope in the special election in the 10th, offering up an internal poll from David Harmer’s camp, by Wilson Research. The poll shows Harmer within single digits of Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, 41-34. (It also claims that, once you adjust for the 35% share that the GOP got in the primary, it closes to a 2-pt gap.)

• FL-24: Another three-way primary got less crowded, this time on the Republican side. State Rep. Dorothy Hukill decided to end her campaign for the primary to go up against Democratic freshman Suzanne Kosmas; Hukill will run for re-election instead. That leaves fellow state Rep. Sandy Adams, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel in the Republican field.

• IN-02: It looks like Republican state Rep. Jackie Wolarski (generally known as “Wacky Jackie”) is set to launch her campaign against sophomore Rep. Joe Donnelly. She says she’s leaning in that direction and will open an exploratory committee by Monday.

• KS-02: The Democrats have nailed down a solid recruit to go up against Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins in the 2nd. State senator Laura Kelly, who has represented a Topeka-area district since 2004, announced today that she will try to reclaim the seat lost by Nancy Boyda last year.

• NY-19: This could get inconvenient for Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball, who’s going up against Rep. John Hall in this swing district. The New York Democratic Lawyers Council filed an FEC complaint against Ball this week, alleging a series of illegal solicitations, improper automatic phone calls, and illegal use of Assembly resources for his congressional campaign.

• NY-23: The establishment/hardliner schism continues unabated in the 23rd, where state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has sent around a memo calling on other conservative activists to stop funding the NRCC until it backs off its support for moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. However, Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling didn’t get the message; the former chair of the Republican Study Committee (the House GOP’s right-wing ideological caucus) gave his endorsement to Scozzafava, on purely pragmatic grounds (saying “she’s the only Republican who can win”). This endorsement probably won’t resonate much outside the Beltway’s financial circles, though; I can’t imagine more than a handful of 23rd district residents know Hensarling’s name.

• AZ-Sen: It’s been a rumor all year, but it just won’t die: ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth is reportedly still interested in challenging John McCain in the GOP primary next year. McCain already has a primary challenge from the fringey right, in the form of former Minutemen leader Chris Simcox.

• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown doesn’t seem to be taking any steps to get into the Dem field, it looks like Rep. Kendrick Meek still may not get the primary all to himself: former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre is signaling his interest in the race. Ferre is 74; he was the first Hispanic (he’s Puerto Rican) to be elected Miami mayor. Meanwhile, Meek is the beneficiary of yet another Bill Clinton fundraiser; this is the Big Dog’s fourth on behalf of Meek, a prominent Hillary Clinton endorser in 2008. Finally, Karl Rove is weighing in on the Florida senate primary, albeit just with a $1,000 donation and no loud public pronouncement: he’s backing Marco Rubio.

• IL-Sen: Rep. Mark Kirk says he’s raised $1.6 million for the 3rd quarter, leaving him with $2.3 million cash on hand. State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias hasn’t made any report yet, but ended the 2nd quarter with $1.65 million on hand.

• NV-Sen: The heat is getting turned up on John Ensign; Barbara Boxer confirmed today that the Senate Ethics Committee will be taking up the little matter of getting a lobbying job for cuckolded ex-staffer Doug Hampton and then steering him clients as a parting gift. Meanwhile, the GOP’s new candidate in the 2010 Senate race, Sue Lowden, is still clinging to Ensign, standing by earlier pro-Ensign comments at an Elko appearance on Friday, saying that she hopes to have Ensign campaigning on behalf of Republican candidates (including, presumably, herself) next year.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold seems to be sitting pretty, with high favorables and little in the way of GOP opposition. His likeliest opponent is Madison real estate developer Terrence Wall, but Wisconsin’s Blogging Blue makes a nice catch about Wall: he loves doing business in Wisconsin so much that all 16 of his business entities are incorporated in Delaware.

• AZ-Gov: Another minor GOP player is jumping into the gubernatorial primary against appointed incumbent Jan Brewer. Former state GOP chair (during the early 1980s) and former member of the university system Board of Regents John Munger is in the race. He joins Brewer and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker, with state Treasurer Dean Martin and some other higher-profile figures considering it too.

• CA-Gov: Maybe this explains why alleged Republican Meg Whitman is running for governor and not for senate: turns out she endorsed Barbara Boxer in 2004 as part of Technology Leaders for Boxer, and gave her $4,000. No word yet on whether Whitman actually got around to voting for her, though.

• MN-Gov: A straw poll at the Minnesota GOP convention sees former state House minority leader Marty Seifert in pole position; he pulled in 37% of the vote among nine candidates. Little-known state Rep. Tom Emmer finished second at 23%, and former state Auditor Pat Anderson was third with 14%. Norm Coleman was also seen mingling with convention-goers (he got a few write-in votes although his name wasn’t on the ballot); he says he hasn’t fully ruled out running, saying he’ll make a decision early next year.

• SC-Gov: Republican AG Henry McMaster, who’s running to succeed Mark Sanford as governor, has run into his own little ethical snafu. He’s having to return $32,500 in illegal contributions that came from five attorneys after he had hired them to work on cases for the state.

• SD-Gov: Republican Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard officially kicked off his campaign for the 2010 gubernatorial race. In an apparently all-Scandinavian-American rumble, he’ll face off against state Senate majority leader Dave Knudson in the GOP primary, and the winner will face Democratic state Senate minority leader Scott Heidepriem.

• VA-Gov: The money keeps pouring into the Virginia governor’s race. The DNC is throwing another $1 million into Creigh Deeds’ kitty. Also, the RGA is going on the air with a huge ad buy in the DC market with an ad featuring a testy post-debate Deeds interview.

• WI-Gov (pdf): The Univ. of Wisconsin and Wisconsin Policy Research Institute poll the Wisconsin governor’s race, but primary fields only. Unknowns rule the day: on the Dem side, Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett (who hasn’t confirmed his interest) beats Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 38-16. On the GOP side, Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker beats ex-Rep. Mark Neumann 39-14, with 4% to Tim Michels. (Barrett is the best known of all the candidates, with a 36/12 favorable.) Current Gov. Jim Doyle heads out of office in net negative territory, with a 43/52 approval, although that still beats a lot of other governors right now.

• WY-Gov: Most of the major players seem to be standing around and waiting to see whether current Gov. Dave Freudenthal challenges the state’s term limit laws in court in order to grab a third term. One Republican isn’t waiting though, becoming the first announced big-ticket opponent: rancher Ron Micheli. He was a state Representative for 16 years and state Agriculture Director under Republican Gov. Jim Geringer.

• NV-03: It looks like the GOP may successfully trade up in the 3rd District. With banker John Guedry bailing out of the race for personal reasons, now it looks like they’ve coaxed former state Sen. Joe Heck out of the gubernatorial primary (where he initially looked like he had a shot at taking out unpopular incumbent Jim Gibbons, but turned into a long shot with the likely inclusion of ex-AG, ex-judge Brian Sandoval in the primary) and into the race against Dem freshman Rep. Dina Titus instead. Heck is still officially mum, but will have an announcement later this week.

• PA-11: Democratic Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien had been a long-rumored primary challenger to long-time Rep. Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, and he made it official over the weekend. O’Brien is clearly emphasizing what a young go-getter he is (compared with the aging Kanjorski), kicking things off with 30 straight hours of campaigning.) Kanjo remains undeterred though, reiterating that he’s running for re-election and looking forward to the debate.

• Generic Ballot: PPP fires up another warning flare about 2010, looking at some of the generic ballot crosstabs. Among voters who don’t like either party, they opt for the GOP 50-14. But there’s a disparity by party line among unhappy voters. The unhappy Republicans will still vote GOP, 66-18, but the unhappy Democrats say they’ll cross over to the GOP, 48-26. On the plus side, there aren’t as many unhappy Democrats as there are unhappy Republicans (20% instead of 33%).

• House: Biden Alert! The VP has been working overtime in the last month appearing at fundraisers for vulnerable House members, helping nearly a dozen members haul more than a collective $1 million. He’s also been assisting with recruiting efforts, most notably with the successful score of Bethlehem mayor John Callahan in PA-15.

• FL-Sen: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says she won’t endorse in the GOP Senate primary or in the general election, out of deference to Kendrick Meek. Says IRL: “Kendrick was a gentleman and I’m a lady back to him,” because he didn’t lift a finger to help Annette Taddeo last year, “despite all the nasty bloggers egging him on.” Next time, we’ll just have to egg harder. (D)

Meanwhile, in the contest purely in Charlie Crist‘s mind over who to appoint to replace Mel Martinez, Crist will reportedly name someone by week’s end from his not-so-short list of eight or so names.

• OR-Sen: John Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment for the Arts under Bush I, was reportedly considering a bid for the Senate against Ron Wyden, but has now decided against it. (You may remember Frohnmayer had tried running as an Indie in the 2006 Smith/Merkley Senate race, but decided against that too.) Interestingly, the story makes it completely unclear whether he was planning to run as a Democrat or an Independent (probably not as a Republican, despite that he’s from one of the state’s brand-name GOP families, considering that the once-dominant moderates have been routed from the state party), but it sounded like he’d be going after the usually-liberal Wyden from the left, as he’d been reaching out to Democratic activists upset over Wyden’s foot-dragging on health care reform. No GOPer has stepped forward to take on Wyden from the right.

• NJ-Gov: One more wheel popped off the suddenly overloaded Chris Christie bus: the woman who allegedly received the undisclosed loan from Christie while working for him has resigned. Michele Brown was the acting first assistant U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, but she quit yesterday, saying she didn’t want to be a distraction for the campaign.

• NY-Gov: Politico’s Alex Isenstadt offers a rebuttal to the NYT’s speculations that Rudy Giuliani is prepping for a gubernatorial run. Close associates say that while he’s not saying no, he isn’t fundraising either, and that his bids for attention may have more to do with paying down campaign debts from his epic presidential fail.

• SC-Gov: Two Republican state Reps, Nathan Ballentine (known as a Mark Sanford ally) and Gerry Simrill met privately with Sanford to let him know that if he doesn’t step down, the GOP-held legislature will impeach him. (Sanford told them he’s staying.) Also, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer publicly called for Sanford to resign today (and, by the way, give him his job). Bauer said he’d drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid if he were to become governor, though.

• TX-Gov: It looks like there’ll be an alternative to Bush-backer Tom Schieffer and weirdo self-promoter Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary after all: Hank Gilbert, a cattle rancher who lost the 2006 Agriculture Commissioner race (although he did do the best of any Dem statewide candidate that year), says he’ll run. Burnt Orange Report sounds very pleased. Meanwhile, Kay Bailey Hutchison faced down a truckload of pigs brought to one of her rallies by snout-wearing pro-Rick Perry, anti-pork activists. KBH is also looking to sell her mansion in McLean, Virginia, a tea leaf that a) she’s serious about bailing out of the Senate and b) she needs money.

• WI-Gov: There’s already a Republican internal poll from the Scott Walker camp done by the Tarrance Group, reflecting the new post-Jim Doyle configuration of the Wisconsin governor’s race. As one might expect from a Walker poll, he leads all comers, although the Milwaukee Co. Exec barely beats Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett, 44-43. Walker posts bigger numbers over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 48-40 and Rep. Ron Kind, 49-39, and an even-bigger number against GOP primary rival ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, 57-21. Barrett leads a Dem primary over Lawton and Kind, 39-25-19 (only Lawton has committed to the race so far, though).

• NYC-Mayor: The mayor’s race in New York seems to be in a holding pattern, with I/R incumbent Michael Bloomberg beating Democratic Comptroller William Thompson, 50-35, not much change from last month’s 47-37 spread. Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella 45-10 in the primary. Further down the ballot, it looks like Air America head Mark Green is poised for a comeback as Public Advocate (a job he held 1994-2001), with 38% in a 4-way Dem primary field.

• Ads: The DNC has launched a series of radio ads providing cover for 13 potentially vulnerable Dems, regarding their earlier stimulus and SCHIP votes: Berry, Himes, Donnelly, Kissell, Teague, Rodriguez, Perriello, Ross, Hill, Etheridge, Brad Miller, Pat Murphy, and Inslee. (OK, those last four don’t seem vulnerable at all, but whatever.) Also, a coalition of MoveOn, Americans United for Change, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters launched TV spots against 5 Republicans over cap-and-trade: McCotter, Rehberg, Blunt, Wolf, and Cantor… and print ads against 2 Dems who also were ‘no’ votes: Jason Altmire in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Ann Kirkpatrick in rural Arizona.

• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown, who’s expressed interest in running in the Democratic Senate primary, has been pretty inactive on the fundraising front, she did get at least one prominent donor to her Senate exploratory account: Rep. Donna Edwards, who gave her $1,000. (Edwards also gave to Rep. Kendrick Meek’s account on the same day — but only $250 to him.)

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they’re still “lousy.” He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won’t run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway’s primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning’s dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.

• NH-Sen: One more indicator that there’s still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn’t going to be working for Ayotte. He’s been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.

• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who’s planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he’s interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).

• NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn’t get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor’s race. Here’s a newly interested potential candidate, though, who’s at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She’s the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state’s second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.

• NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there’s also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore’s daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won’t run.

• PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat… but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it’s happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn’t clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he’s likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach’s former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele’s name has been floated, although she’s already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike’s early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still “eyeing” the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).

• VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn’t fit in James’s fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.

• Demographics: Two interesting reads you’ll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more “seculars,” and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the “culture wars.” And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that — unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational — Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts’ voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you’re represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you’re reading SSP, chances are that you aren’t), this would be a great piece to forward to them.

Mason Dixon (PDF) for Ron Sachs Communications (6/24-26, registered voters for general, likely voters for primaries, 5/14-18 in parens):

Charlie Crist (R): 51 (53_

Marco Rubio (R): 23 (18)

Undecided: 26 (29)

Kendrick Meek (D): 27

Corrine Brown (D): 12

Undecided: 61

(MoE: ±6%)

Charlie Crist (R): 48 (55)

Kendrick Meek (D): 26 (24)

Undecided: 26 (21)

Charlie Crist (R): 55

Corrine Brown (D): 24

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

Not really sure what to say about these numbers, given how similar they are to those from other pollsters. Taegan Goddard notes: “Among Republican voters who recognize both candidates, Crist barely edges Rubio, 33% to 31%.” That’s good news for Rubio, though the margin of error among this tiny sub-sample (which can’t number more than about 150, given the internals) would be at least 8%. Still, Florida’s late primary is over a year away, giving Rubio plenty of time.

Here’s some food for thought: Would Charlie Crist have a better chance at winning this Senate seat if he ran as an independent – or switched to the Democrats?

• PA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Pat Toomey says that he raised $1 million in 60 days toward his Senate run, with more than 11,000 donors. It’s still a drop in the bucket compared with the bankrolls of Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, but it ought to help dissuade anyone else from jumping into the GOP primary. Another tidbit that ought to discourage any Republican line-crashers: $5,000 of that money came from John Cornyn‘s PAC, suggesting that he’s done looking for another candidate and is bringing establishment power to bear behind Toomey.

• FL-Sen: It’s not much of a surprise, considering they’re close neighbors, but Rep. Kendrick Meek nailed down the endorsements of two key members of Florida’s House delegation — Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Ron Klein — which will come in handy if he does wind up facing off against Corrine Brown in the primary.

• LA-Sen: Democratic New Orleans city councilor Arnie Fielkow decided, after some speculation, not to wade into the Louisiana Senate race. More plausible would be a challenge to Rep. Anh Cao in LA-02, as Fielkow is well-known in NoLa but has no statewide presence, but Fielkow also declined that, leading to speculation he may be eyeing the next mayor’s race instead.

• GA-Gov:  With an eye on Roy Barnes, Ed Kilgore takes aim at the claim that Georgia governors have a long track record of failure when it comes to comebacks. It turns out that past probably isn’t prologue. (D)

• TX-Gov: We’re reluctant to ascribe a whole lotta meaning to the phrasing of this particular letter, but Kay Bailey Hutchison seems to be moving pretty explicitly toward making official her run for Governor. Glenn Thrush points to a letter sent to potential donors saying “I am running for Governor.”

• AZ-05: Is Congress ready for its first gamer (or at least its first out-of-the-closet gamer)? Jim Ward, the former president of video game maker LucasArts, announced that he’ll be running for the GOP nomination to go up against Rep. Harry Mitchell. Ward brings a lot of wealth to the table, but he’ll have an uphill fight against former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who lost the 2008 election to Mitchell by 9 points and is looking for a rematch.

• TX-32: Dems have landed a good candidate in TX-32 to go up against Rep. Pete Sessions: Grieg Raggio, an attorney and husband to Judge Lorraine Raggio. The 32nd, in north Dallas, is still a red district but has seen rapidly declining GOP numbers, both for Sessions and at the presidential level, and is down to R+8.

• NY-AG: Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi published an editorial in the New York Times where he publicly discusses having changed his mind on the gay marriage issue (he’s now for it). With New York one of the few states where gay marriage has become an issue with majority support, Suozzi looks to be repositioning himself for, well, something (probably, as often rumored, Attorney General, but maybe Governor if Andrew Cuomo continues to dither).

• Redistricting: The Hill has an interesting piece about redistricting; while it doesn’t delve into too many specifics, it does shed some light on what districts the GOP is rushing to try to take back before they get strengthened for the Dems (like Bobby Bright’s AL-02), and what districts are unlikely to draw top tier challengers because everyone is willing to sit back and wait for new open districts to pop up in 2012 (like Dina Titus’s NV-03).

• Race Tracker: Benawu is already back doing what he does best: chronicling the Dems’ efforts to field candidates in all 435 districts. Right now, we’re still looking in 124 GOP-held districts (although, of course, it’s still early in the cycle). Check out the RaceTracker 2010 wiki for more.