Tag: Kendrick Meek

Univ. of South Florida Polytechnic for New York Times Newspapers (FL) (7/24-28, likely voters, no trendlines):

Kendrick Meek (D): 12

Marco Rubio (R): 30

Charlie Crist (I): 41

Undecided: 17

Jeff Greene (D): 16

Marco Rubio (R): 29

Charlie Crist (I): 37

Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4%)

Here’s another few data points to throw on the ever-growing heap in Florida, courtesy of the “Florida Poll” (apparently a joint venture of the New York Times Newspapers of Florida and the Univ. of South Florida). The numbers here pretty clearly match last week’s Quinnipiac poll, if not even more bullish on Charlie Crist’s current chances… and even slightly more bearish on Kendrick Meek, who seems to be dwindling down into Alan Schlesinger territory here (Schlesinger, if you’ve forgotten, was the Republican who became irrelevant and sank into the single digits in the 2006 Connecticut Senate race once Joe Lieberman became an indie/de facto Republican).

Interestingly, their numbers contradict a point that Tom Jensen made a few days ago, that Charlie Crist would seem to benefit more from Jeff Greene as the Dem opponent than Meek. Here, Crist’s 11-point lead over Rubio and Meek drops to an 8-point lead over Rubio and Greene. That may be a temporary artifact thanks to Greene’s heavy ad spending right now and one that would change post-primary, though. They don’t poll the Dem Senate primary here, for some reason, so there’s no basis for further speculation.

There’s also a Republican poll of the race that came out today, a McLaughlin & Associates poll that’s not directly from the Rubio campaign but on behalf of Associated Industries of Florida. They see a much closer race, as you might expect. They see a 38-36-16 race for Crist, Rubio, and Meek, while they see a tie if Greene is the nominee: 37-37 for Crist and Rubio with 16 for Greene.

One other piece of news: I don’t think Charlie Crist was counting on any assistance from his former running mate, Lt. Governor Jeff Kottkamp, who has remained a Republican where Crist has not. Today Kottkamp endorsed Rubio, saying he’d planned to back Rubio for months but waited to act until it would have maximum effect. Kottkamp is running for AG and is in a tight three-way GOP primary, so no way was he going to go off the reservation on this one. Doesn’t sound like he was tempted, though; things sound a little strained between him and his former ticket-mate:

“I gave him the same heads up that he gave me when he left the party, which is none,” Kottkamp said, acknowledging that his relationship with Crist was not likely to improve following the endorsement.

Gubernatorial numbers:

Alex Sink (D): 27

Bill McCollum (R): 26

Bud Chiles (I): 12

Undecided: 35

Alex Sink (D): 28

Rick Scott (R): 30

Bud Chiles (I): 11

Undecided: 31

(MoE: ±4%)

Rick Scott (R): 41

Bill McCollum (R): 25

Undecided: 34

(MoE: ±6%)

Also similar to Quinnipiac, the Florida Poll finds very close races between Alex Sink and the two toxic Republicans, with indie Bud Chiles in the low double-digits. (I wonder if Chiles can somehow outpoll the Democratic Senate nominee?) Rick Scott seems in command of the Republican gubernatorial primary.

Or is he? There’s another Republican poll out today, of the gubernatorial primary. The poll, from Schroth, Eldon & Associates, isn’t a McCollum internal but taken on behalf of “private business clients,” but judging by its content, they must be McCollum allies. It finds Scott leading McCollum only 43-40. Even weirder, it finds McCollum, reduced to smoldering ruins by Scott’s ad campaign according to pretty much every other pollster, in positive territory, at 43/42 (with Scott’s favorables at 41/42).

Hey, this is Kenneth Quinnell, the New Media Director for the Kendrick Meek campaign.  Wanted to make sure that everyone saw that we released our third TV ad, this one a positive ad introducing voters to Kendrick and his background.  Give us feedback on this and let us know if we’re going in the right direction.

Thanks,

Kenneth

(Transcript and press release below the fold)

Transcript

Kendrick Meek: “I was raised by a single mom.”

Carrie Meek “He always had a lot of hair. I don’t know what happened to it.”

Kendrick: “I was a sky cap, a state trouper, and a legislator.”

John Ladanza “He was one of my best patrol men”

Sky Cap “He always got time to talk, hes always got a few minutes.”

Kendrick: “I fought to protect the everglades and against privatizing social security”

Elmon “Lee” Garner: “He had the concern and the caring to see how wronged we were”

Kendrick: “But in the end, its about your life and not mine.”

***

Press release

MIAMI GARDENS, FLA.- Today, the Kendrick Meek for Florida campaign released the campaign’s third television ad, “My Life,” that focuses on Kendrick’s life and fight for Florida families. You can view the ad here.

The ad features interviews with Captain John Idanza, a retired officer in the Florida Highway Patrol who Kendrick reported to as a young state trooper, Kendrick’s mother Carrie Meek, and two skycaps who Kendrick worked alongside when he hauled bags for tips as a teenager at Miami International Airport.

Chattahoochee City Manager Elmon “Lee” Garner also tells the story of how Kendrick stood up and fought the opening of a sexual predator facility that was almost placed just a few blocks from a local school.

“He had the concern and caring to see just how wronged we were,” explains Garner in the ad.

The ad also shows a photo of Kendrick with the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Vicki Kennedy, Senator Kennedy’s widow, said she was honored to give Kendrick her family’s blessing to use the photo.

The ad also details Kendrick’s efforts to protect the Everglades from development and his fight against President Bush’s efforts to privatize Social Security.

Uniquely, the ad directs viewers to watch the entire film, titled “Across Florida,” which tells the longer story of Kendrick’s life and his fight for the middle class.

“My Life” goes up on air today.

Learn more

Contribute

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Is there a more exciting, yet entirely-irrelevant 2010 political race than the Democratic primary in Florida’s U.S. Senate race?

First off, Florida Democrats must face the music – Republican-turned-Independent Gov. Charlie Crist is going to prevail in this race, and he’ll do so via the support of a great, big chunk of registered Democrats. Why is this the case? Or, better put, why has the Florida Democratic Party become so weak and pathetic in the two years since Barack Obama’s state victory?

Well, it’s all about the candidates, and, in FL-Sen, Democrats are stuck choosing between two politicians who are about as imposing as me.

In one corner, there’s Kendrick Meek, a liberal Congressman who comes from a district so Democratic, he’s never faced a general election challenger. This, of course, is a great characteristic when it comes to reaching out into the swing districts. (Not.) To be fair, Meek is actually a very appealing and talented politician, but even as Charlie Crist was still duking it out in the GOP primary months back, no realistic political pundit thought Meek had a real chance. Now, with centrist, Democrat-friendly Crist running third-party, he’s even more doomed.

Meek’s general election fate was so evident, a millionaire businessman named Jeff Greene figured, “hey, if he sucks so hard in the general, maybe he’ll flop in a primary too!” And, thus, Greene, who is a certified loon, and who no true Democrat (or sane individual) should support, jumped into the race, forced a primary, threw some cash onto the airwaves, and, now, if you believe the polls, he’s actually ahead of Meek.

On one hand, this development is both baffling and disappointing, given Greene is a legit nutjob, and Meek, while hardly a great candidate, has at least done his constituents fair, respectable service in his four terms in Congress. On the flip side, Greene’s entry provides for great, engrossing political fodder, especially from a financial standpoint.

After all, Greene has basically bought himself the lead in this primary, flooding the airwaves as the cash-strapped Meek scrambles to do whatever possible (and cheap) in getting his name out there, all the while trying to salvage some finances for the general election (should he get that far, of course). As Meg Whitman perfectly illustrated in California’s recent gubernatorial primary, money often speaks louder than words in the political arena, especially when your opponent doesn’t have the money to even put his or her words out there.

No surprise, I’d personally vote Meek over Greene in a heartbeat, but, from a purely political calculus, as in “how to defeat Crist and Rubio,” it makes no sense to me why any logical, thinking Democrat would vote Greene. Once Greene’s loony associations with the likes of Lindsay Lohan and Paris Hilton come to the forefront, I suspect even the most liberal Democrats will suddenly like the idea of Sen. Charlie Crist. Meek, to his credit, should at least perform well among African-Americans and self-described “progressives.” With Greene, such is no guarantee.

My current projections on races with both Meek and Greene…

Republican – 35%

Democrat – 33%

Independent – 32%

Crist – 23%/57%/55% = 45%

Rubio – 77%/7%/32% = 39%

Meek – 0%/36%/13% = 16%

Crist – 23%/73%/61% = 52%

Rubio – 77%/7%/32% = 39%

Greene – 0%/20%/7% = 9%

http://polibeast.blogspot.com/…

CO-Sen: Colorado Dems are concerned that if Andrew Romanoff topples Sen. Michael Bennet in the primary, he’ll be badly hamstrung in the general by his refusal to take PAC money. This problem is compounded by the fact he’s been a pretty crappy fundraiser in general. Romanoff also supposedly said he won’t accept the DSCC’s help – though luckily for us, independent expenditure rules mean that he can’t tell the DS what to do. This all reminds of Russ Feingold demanding that outside groups not spend money on his 1998 re-election campaign, which he won by barely 3% in an otherwise very strong Democratic year.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is up with a quarter million dollar ad buy on behalf of Jane Norton, touting an endorsement from Jan Brewer (whose instant celebrity strikes me as something on the level of a reality TV star).

FL-Sen: So it turns out that Kendrick Meek, who was initially left off some notices, will participate in Barack Obama’s August 18th Miami Beach fundraiser. But a Meek staffer tells Politico that he wants nothing less than a “prominent role” at the event and is “expecting the president to strongly reaffirm his endorsement.” If you have to float these kinds of things via blind leaks to the beltway press… well… that doesn’t exactly evince a great deal of confidence, does it?

Meanwhile, Tom Jensen confirms empirically something I’ve felt intuitively for a while (and mentioned on our panel at Netroots Nation): Charlie Crist is better off with Jeff Greene winning the Democratic primary rather than Kendrick Meek. In particular, black voters support Meek 39-33 over Crist, while they support Crist 61-17 over Greene.

IL-Sen: It’s confirmed: A federal judge ruled that the candidates on the special election ballot to fill out the remaining months of Sen. Roland Burris’s term will be the same as those on the regular election ballot – meaning Burris won’t be able to seek “re-election” for those two extra months (something he actually had considered doing). Phew.

KS-Sen: A final SurveyUSA poll of the GOP primary shows Todd Tiahrt, who has trailed badly for the entire race, closing the gap with Jerry Moran. Moran still leads by a sizable 49-39 margin, but two weeks ago, it was 50-36, and Tiahrt has gained 10 points over the last two months. The problem is, time’s up: The primary is tonight.

KY-Sen: The Club for Growth just endorsed Rand Paul, and undoubtedly it’s because of College Libertarian Society bullshit like this which comes out of his mouth:

The Republican running to replace outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning (R-Ky.) in the coal-mining hub of Kentucky said recently that Washington has no business formulating mine safety rules.

“The bottom line is: I’m not an expert, so don’t give me the power in Washington to be making rules,” Paul said at a recent campaign stop in response to questions about April’s deadly mining explosion in West Virginia, according to a profile in Details magazine. “You live here, and you have to work in the mines. You’d try to make good rules to protect your people here. If you don’t, I’m thinking that no one will apply for those jobs.”

“I know that doesn’t sound… I want to be compassionate, and I’m sorry for what happened, but I wonder: Was it just an accident?”

CA-Gov: Fellow humans of Earth! I have traveled back through time from the year 3000! And I come to tell you that in our wondrous and awesome future, the spending record for candidate self-funding is still held by Meg Whitman! I cannot tell you how much she spent in total, lest I create a temporal paradox and cause all of you never to have been born, but I can inform you that she has already spent one hundred million of your Earth dollars! Also, everyone in the future eats Dippin’ Dots!

Meanwhile, a more chronologically closer reporter informs us that Jerry Brown has $23 million on hand.

FL-Gov: The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals struck down Florida’s public financing law, whereby candidates whose opponents spend more than $25 million (as Rick Scott has) get added matching funds from the state. Apparently this system “chills free speech” (whatever). Bill McCollum is obviously none too happy, and is weighing a possible appeal – or an attack on another part of the law which limits the size of donations he can accept.

GA-Gov: Landmark Communications, a Republican pollster which says it has no ties to either candidate, is out with the first poll of the GOP runoff. They find Karen Handel leading Nathan Deal by a 46-37 margin. Deal, meanwhile, is out with a new ad, and props to the AJC’s Jim Galloway for getting the Deal campaign to cough up that the buy is for 850 gross ratings points in the Atlanta area. One rating point is equal to one percent of a potential audience, but because the same viewer might see the same ad more than once, you need a lot more than 100 GRPs to reach your full target audience. As things go, 850 is a pretty decent-sized buy, especially in an expensive market like Atlanta.

CA-47: This really doesn’t seem wise: Rep. Loretta Sanchez, locked in a competitive race with Assemblyman Van Tran, filed paperwork for state bid in 2014. She really couldn’t have waited until after November? Now-Rep. Tom McClintock (CA-04) did something similar last cycle, and it certainly did not seem to help him (he barely eked out a win in a decidedly red district). Speaking of Tran, by the way, here’s an interesting item from late last week: He secured the backing of the grifters running the Tea Party Express – not exactly a popular gang, I’m sure, in this 60% Obama district.

FL-08: You know how they say that if you wind up in prison, you should act all crazy on your first day so that the other inmates know better than to mess with you? Well, Alan Grayson’s tack seems to have been to act crazy so as to get his opponents to act even crazier and thus blow themselves up in the process. Republican state Rep. Kurt Kelly, reacting to Grayson’s absence during a vote on an Afghanistan war funding bill, spazzed: “He put our soldiers, our men and women in the military, in harm’s way and, in fact, maybe he wants them to die.” Said a Grayson spokesperson in response: “Kurt Kelly thinks the stupider he sounds, the more Republican votes he’ll get.” Heh.

HI-01: GOP Rep. Charles Djou is out with an internal poll from the Tarrance Group showing him up 50-42 over Colleen Hanabusa. Djou has about $380K on hand to Hanabusa’s $220K. I wonder if Hanabusa will release her own internal.

ID-01: I swear, some days it really feels like Bill Sali actually is running again. This time, apprentice fuckup Raul Labrador moved his campaign headquarters outside of the 1st Congressional District – a pretty remarkable feat given that Idaho has only two CDs. If this sounds extremely familiar, that’s because it is: Sali himself did the exact same thing, situating his campaign office in ID-02 as well. Let’s hope history repeats in November, too.

IL-10: Dem Dan Seals has donated $5,000 he received from ethically embattled Rep. Maxine Waters to charity – even though she gave that money to him last cycle. I wonder if other candidates will follow suit, ala Rangel.

NY-10: Even though he’s already spent an absurd $1.1 million and held 2008 challenger Kevin Powell to just 32% in the primary, Rep. Ed Towns is taking no chances in his rematch and is attempting to get Powell kicked off the ballot. However, Powell (who has raised very little and has just $30K on hand) collected 8,000 signatures, far more than the 1,250 he needed. So unless there are massive flaws (or fraud), this is going to be difficult for Towns.

WI-08: Organic farmer, Door County supervisor, and teabagger Marc Savard, who had raised very little, dropped out and endorsed roofing contractor Reid Ribble in the GOP primary. Ribble, who leads the fundraising field (but only has about $180K on hand), still faces former state Rep. Terri McCormick and current state Rep. Roger Roth. (And here’s a rather disturbing item we missed: While we noted retired radiologist Marc Trager’s departure from the race in mid-June, we were previously unaware that he committed suicide just a couple of weeks later.)

DCCC: Obama alert! The POTUS will do a fundraiser for the D-Trip on August 16 at the Los Angeles home of “ER” and “West Wing” executive produce John Wells. Nancy Pelosi and Chris Van Hollen are also expected to attend.

Quinnipiac (7/22-27, likely primary voters, 6/1-7 in parentheses, 4/8-13 in brackets):

Alex Sink (D): 26 (25)

Bill McCollum (R): 27 (33)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (19)

Undecided: 27 (19)

Alex Sink (D): 27 (26)

Rick Scott (R): 29 (35)

Bud Chiles (I): 14 (13)

Undecided: 26 (23)

(MoE: ±3.2%)

The primary war between Bill McCollum and Rick Scott are starting to have an effect here – to Dem state CFO Alex Sink’s advantage. In the six weeks since Quinnipiac last looked at the race, Sink’s gained a point, and the Republican’s lost 6 points in both matchups.

Perhaps more tellingly, both McCollum’s and Scott’s favorables are now underwater. Scott’s now sporting a 29/30, a reversal from the 31/22 that found in June. McCollum’s nosedive is even more pronounced, moving from a +8 spread at 37/29 to being 16 points underwater at 27/43.

Interestingly, the number of people reporting “Haven’t heard enough” about Alex Sink has ticked up two points to 58 – perhaps explaining the greater shift to “Undecided”. Despite the unpopularity of the GOPers and Sink’s low profile, Dem-turned-indie Bud Chiles doesn’t seem to getting much traction though. He’s relatively unknown as well, with 15/10 favorables and 73% not having heard enough.

Charlie Crist (I): 37 (40)

Jeff Greene (D): 17 (14)

Marco Rubio (R): 32 (33)

Undecided: 12 (11)

Charlie Crist (I): 39 (37) [32]

Kendrick Meek (D): 13 (17) [24]

Marco Rubio (R): 33 (33) [30]

Undecided: 14 (11) [13]

(MoE: ±3.2%)

Charlie Crist, in contrast to Chiles, remains in strong position, especially as Meek and Greene have gone after each other. Meek’s suffered the most from this, having lost nearly half his support in 3 months. Meek’s still an unknown quantity, with 64% saying they “don’t know enough” and those that do split 17/17. (Notably, his unfavorables have more than doubled, from 8 points to 17.) Crist dominates among Independents 50-28 over Rubio and even carries Democrats 42-33.

On the other side of the primary coin is Jeff Greene, who’s media blitz seems to have earned him some positive name recognition. He’s up to 20/15 (up from 11/11), and manages to be more competitive among Dems against Crist, holding Crist to a 41-39 lead. Crist – who’s job approval and favorables are both strong at 53-37 and 49-35, respectively, still carries Indies by a nearly identical 51-27 margin against Rubio, who remains a contender with decent favorables at 35-24, nearly unchanged from 36-22 in April.

Of course, given Jeff Greene’s yachtfuls of baggage that have yet to be publicized, this race remains in flux; however, Charlie Crist remains in the driver’s (captain’s?) seat and will continue to keep his advantage if he can become the de facto Democrat in the race.

Quinnipiac (7/22-27, likely primary voters, 6/2-8 in parentheses):

Rick Scott (R): 43 (44)

Bill McCollum (R): 32 (31)

Undecided: 23 (24)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Jeff Greene (D): 33 (27)

Kendrick Meek (D): 23 (29)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (3)

Undecided: 35 (37)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Who would have ever thought, even three months ago, that the once-seeming-insane vanity campaigns of ultra-wealthy GOPer Rick Scott and Dem Jeff Greene would actually take off? If anything, it shows the power of money to sway voters, especially the power of money in primary elections where name rec and interest are low and the establishment candidates are on the underwhelming side.

Things haven’t changed much in the Republican gubernatorial primary; if anything, Bill McCollum seems to have arrested Rick Scott’s progress, although his small turnaround is all within the margin of error. The big movement this time is in the Dem Senate primary, where Greene has shot past Kendrick Meek into first place, with Meek only getting on the air with his first ad this week. (Not to get too morbid about Meek’s chances here, but I’ve gotta wonder how many establishment Dems both in Florida and the Beltway are secretly pleased to see Greene on track to win the primary, which will then free them up to support Charlie Crist in November with a clean conscience…)

If there’s any hope to be had for Meek, it’s the high number of people who might change their mind, and the preference for experience over outsider status. On the Dem side, only 43% say their mind is made up, and 54% might change, while 44% of Dems prefer someone with experience while 35% want an outsider. Compare that with McCollum’s chances: on the GOP side, 55% say their mind is made up, 43% may change. 54% want an “outsider,” while 28% want experience.

CO-Sen: An unknown group called New Leadership Colorado hired Zata|3 to take a poll of the Dem primary, and survey says that Sen. Michael Bennet has a slim 44-40 lead over upstart Andrew Romanoff. As Colorado Pols points out, even though NLC claims to have no relationship with either campaign, the group’s interests must lie with Romanoff – because no one affiliated with Bennet would want to release a poll that makes him look so vulnerable. Colorado Pols also observes that Zata|3, until this cycle, was not known as a pollster but rather as a firm that does robocalls and direct mail – and wonders why they’ve been tapped to do actual surveys.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is refusing to say whether he’d back gajillionaire asshole Jeff Greene should Greene win the Democratic primary. (According to Politico, Greene has “signaled he would support Meek.”) Politically speaking, if Meek crashes and burns, I wonder if he’d be better off endorsing Charlie Crist. After all, Crist is about a hundred (at least) times more likely to win the general than Greene, and since it seems he’d have to caucus with the Dems, backing him could earn Meek a chit or two down the line.

MO-Sen: A bunch of teabaggers are complaining that Michele Bachmann is coming to town to stump for her House colleague Roy Blunt – and not Chuck Purgason, the state senator who has failed to gain any traction in his primary bid. When Bachmann, the recent founder of the House Tea Party Caucus, isn’t passing purity tests, you know your movement has reached “Judean People’s Front” levels of absurdity.

NH-Sen: UNH, polling for WMUR, has AG Kelly Ayotte beating Dem Rep. Paul Hodes 45-37. That’s actually an improvement for Hodes from April’s 47-32 margin.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post has a helpful look at the American Constitution Party, the right-wing lunatic party whose line Tom Tancredo plans to run on for governor. Among other planks of their platform: repeal of the 17th amendment, repeal of the Endangered Species Act, and repeal of the Voting Rights Act. Sounds like they have a lot in common with the Republicans – they’re both the party of no!

IL-Gov, IL-10: Capitol Fax busts two Republicans for engaging in shady Internet-related shenanigans. First up, someone claiming to be with Bill Brady’s gubernatorial decided to vandalize Brady’s Wikipedia page, turning it into a campaign press release, more or less. Of course, the encyclopedia’s trusty editors quickly reverted these ridiculous edits – which only led to a revision war, as Brady’s stupid minions kept trying to push their nonsense. The page is now locked. As Capitol Fax reiterates, all this shit is permanent. As in, you get to look like an idiot forever.

Meanwhile, in suburban Chicago, GOPer Bob Dold’s campaign doesn’t seem to understand this lesson. He put up an item on his Facebook page the other day saying he supports Rep. Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future” – you know, the economic “plan” which calls for destroying Medicare and Social Security, among other things. After Dan Seals lacerated Dold’s punk ass for this, Dold took the post down. But the enterprising ArchPundit was smart enough to grab a screen capture while the post was still live. Explaining the deletion, a Dold hack said, “It’s Facebook. We put things up and take things down all the time.” Um, no – you don’t actually get to do that. Trust me on this one – I’m from the Internet.

TN-Gov: Dem gubernatorial candidate Mike McWherter is up on the air with his first ad, a positive bio-ish spot. NWOTSOTB, of course.

NC-07: Barf: Kelsey Grammer, that rare breed of Hollywood Republican, is coming to North Carolina to do fundraisers for GOPer Ilario Pantano, who is running against Rep. Mike McIntyre. Pantano, as you probably know, is best known for emptying two magazines from his M-16 into two Iraqi prisoners, killing them both, because he wanted to “send a message.”

NY-15: We’ll probably stop following this whip count soon, but anyhow, freshman Dem Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is now the third House incumbent to call on Charlie Rangel to resign. If the floodgates do open up on this, any latecomers to the bandwagon will see diminishing returns on their calls for resignation.

PA-06: Yesterday, we mentioned a Jim Gerlach internal which had him up 54-29 over Manan Trivedi. Well, the team down at the SSP Records & Storage went dumpster diving through our deep archive to dig up an old Gerlach internal from September of 2008. That survey showed him up 57-28 over Some Dude Bob Roggio. (SSPR&S believes that this might have actually been the very first “Some Dude” reference on SSP.) You will recall that Gerlach beat Roggio by just 52-48.

TN-06: That’s interesting: Veteran Brett Carter launched a TV ad touting his military experience. Then veteran Ben Leming launched a TV ad, touting his military experience. What’s interesting is that both of these guys are running in the Democratic primary – in a seat largely written off by national Dems. NWOTSOTB for either candidate, but both men have limited cash-on-hand (Carter $100K, Leming $35K).

DNC: The DNC just transferred $2.5 million to a number of sister organizations, including the DSCC, DCCC and three marquee gubernatorial campaigns (FL, MD and PA). Click the link for the complete breakdowns.

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff, who’s had seeming trouble articulating a motivation for his primary campaign against appointee Michael Bennet (other than “it was my turn”), still seems like he’s confident in his chances of winning the primary. He just doubled down by selling his house and lending the $325K proceeds to his campaign (or maybe he was just eager to sell the dump, anyway). Romanoff had $464K CoH on June 30, but most of that has been gobbled up by ad buys. Also on the ad front in Colorado, the shadowy, Ken Buck-backing 501(c)(4) Americans for Job Security is out with another anti-Jane Norton ad, attacking her over her support for anti-TABOR Proposition C.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell, the forgotten right-winger in the Delaware GOP primary against Rep. Mike Castle, keeps hitting wingnut paydirt. Having already secured the Susan B. Anthony List endorsement, she’s now getting backing from two more of the engines pulling the crazy train: the Tea Party Express (the corporate astroturf umbrella org for the teabaggers), and Concerned Women for America (Phyllis Schlafly’s group). The Politico article includes a litany of O’Donnell’s baggage as rattled off by Delaware’s GOP state party chair, so it seems like the establishment is taking note and starting to push back.

• FL-Sen: Well, that was fast; I guess when you have a few hundred million dollars at your disposal, you can whip up ads pretty quickly (or just have  a couple extra sitting in the can, ready to go). With Kendrick Meek having launched his first Dem primary ad yesterday, a negative ad against Jeff Greene, today Greene hit back with two different anti-Meek ads. One focuses on Meek’s family connections to a corrupt developer, and the other focuses on the cigar-maker carveout from SCHIP. As always, NWOTSOB.

• KY-Sen: The Jack Conway camp has leaked Daily Kos an internal from Benenson giving them a 44-44 tie with Rand Paul, and a 48-46 lead over Paul with leaners pushed. The poll’s a little stale, having been taken June 26-29, but it’s good news; if nothing else, it’s confirmation for the most recent PPP poll, which also saw a tie. We have a copy of the full memo here. Another small reason for optimism in the Bluegrass State: there’s word of a new (and apparently nameless, for now) 527 headed by former progressive Democratic ’08 Senate candidate Andrew Horne, that will be playing in the Kentucky race. They have $2 million pledged by various business leaders to work with, and they’ve lined up Anzalone Liszt and Zata|3 to work for them.

• CT-Gov: This is one of my favorite headlines since “Lamborn Primaried by Local Crank“: “Looney Backs Malloy in Governor’s Bid.” (Martin Looney is the state Senate majority leader.)

• FL-Gov: Taking a page from Raul Labrador, Bill McCollum’s out with an internal. His own poll from McLaughlin & Associates finds him trailing Rick Scott 37-31. (The polling memo actually has the audacity to ask, “Why hasn’t Rick Scott done better?”)

• MD-Gov: Local pollster Gonzales Research is out with their second look at the Maryland gubernatorial race; they find a 45-42 lead for Martin O’Malley over Robert Ehrlich, which very closely echoes the PPP poll from a few weeks ago. Their trendlines go back to January, when a Ehrlich re-run was only vaguely being discussed; then, O’Malley had a 9-point lead.

• MN-Gov: Fundraising reports in Minnesota were due yesterday. GOPer Tom Emmer might well need to use that giant jar of pennies he had dumped on his table in order to buy some ad time, as he’s lagging on the financial front. Emmer has less than $300K CoH and raised under $800K in the first six months of the year, while DFL endorsee Margaret Anderson Kelliher has $385K CoH and raised about $1 million. Kelliher, however, still might not get out of her primary against two rich guys: Matt Entenza raised $360K during that period but also loaned himself $3.5 million (and spent $3.9 million, mostly on TV ads). Mark Dayton hasn’t filed yet.

• OR-Gov: Republican Chris Dudley is padding his financial advantage over John Kitzhaber in Oregon’s gubernatorial race: he’s raised $850K since the May 18 primary, compared with $269K for Kitzhaber. Dudley has raised $2.6 million all cycle long, compared with Kitz’s $1.7 million. (One historical note, though: Ted Kulongoski was easily re-elected in 2006 despite being outspent by opponent Ron Saxton and his $7 million.) Much of Dudley’s money seems to be coming in from out-of-state, as the former NBA player and current financial advisor is getting a lot of Wall Street and sports industry money. Interestingly, the timber industry, usually a Republican force in the state, is staying largely on the sidelines this election, as they’re fairly friendly with Kitzhaber.

• TN-Gov: Having nowhere to go in the GOP primary polls but up, Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is going the out-and-proud Islamophobe route. Spurred on by the ongoing controversy over the construction of a mosque in Murfreesboro, Ramsey, in response to a question at an appearance, said, “You could even argue whether being a Muslim is actually a religion or is it a nationality, way of life or cult, whatever you want to call it.”

• ID-01: Raul Labrador, a conspicuous absence from the NRCC’s anyone-with-a-pulse Young Guns program, says that he “opted out” of the Young Guns. (Yeah… just like I “opted out” of junior prom.) He didn’t give a specific reason why, although tensions between him and the NRCC have been high.

• MN-03: I’m not exactly sure why Jim Meffert thought it was a good idea to release this internal, but I guess he needed to let people know that he’s actually contesting this thing. His poll (no mention of the pollster in the article) finds him trailing freshman GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen 44-27, with 7% for an IP candidate. The number he’d probably like us to focus on is that Paulsen has only a 33% re-elect (although only 12% say they’re a definite “no”).

• MN-06: Seems like Johnny Law doesn’t like Michele Bachmann’s particularly freaky brand of law and order: the state’s police union, the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, just gave its endorsement to Dem Tarryl Clark in the 6th.

• RI-01: The American Federation of Teachers, having just endorsed indie Lincoln Chafee instead of Dem Frank Caprio, also went for unconventional with their 1st District endorsement. They went for young up-and-comer state Rep. David Segal, who’s tried to stake out the most progressive turf in the Dem primary, instead of Providence mayor and presumed frontrunner David Cicilline.

• TN-09: On top of having gotten SSP’s annual John Hostettler Award for outstanding performance at filing quarterly reports (for failing to electronically file his FEC report on time, despite having only $19K CoH), Willie Herenton got a much worse piece of news: the Congressional Black Caucus either doesn’t think much of his chances, or think much of him. Although they wouldn’t let Steve Cohen join their club in 2007, they did just endorse him, and sent $5,000 his way.

• Rasmussen:

• AL-Sen: William Barnes (D) 29%, Richard Shelby (R-inc) 59%

• AZ-Sen (D): Rodney Glassman (D) 15%, Cathy Eden (D) 11%, Randy Parraz (D) 10%, John Dougherty (D) 7%

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 40%, Jane Norton (R) 44%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 39%, Jane Norton (R) 48%

• CO-Sen: Andrew Romanoff (D) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet (D-inc) 42%, Ken Buck (R) 48%

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 38%, Charlie Baker (R) 32%, Tim Cahill (I) 17%

Netroots Nation: In case you missed it, click the link to watch the video of our panel on the 2010 horserace from last Friday at Netroots Nation. It was a terrific, fast-paced panel and we were asked a broad range of questions on a ton of different races. Fun stuff! Also of interest, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a straw poll of convention-goers. They included one horserace-ish question, asking participants which race was their top priority this fall. 31% picked NV-Sen, followed by PA-Sen (25%), KY-Sen (21%), MN-06 (15%), and VA-05 (7%).

CA-Sen: The NRSC has reserved $1.75 million in ad time for Carly Fiorina – but remember, just cuz you reserve time doesn’t mean you necessarily wind up buying it, so this could just be a feint.

FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is up with his first ad, attacking zillionaire schmuckface Jeff Greene for his past run for Congress in California – as a Republican – and for the windfall he reaped by betting on a housing market collapse two years ago. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times says the buy is for $420K, which he thinks is “pretty small” for the pretty big state of Florida.

IL-Sen: Mark Kirk is pulling a Pat Toomey. You’ll recall that the ultra-conservative Pennsylvania senate candidate somewhat surprisingly endorsed Sonia Sotomayor’s nomination for the Supreme Court. Now it’s Kirk’s turn to try to burnish his “moderate” credentials, so he’s backing Elena Kagan.

Meanwhile, here’s some new craziness: A federal district court judge just ordered a special election to fill the remaining months of Roland Burris’s term, most likely to coincide with the regular election in November. Both Kirk and Dem Alexi Giannoulias have said they want to run in the special, and they probably won’t have to face a primary, since the judge seems inclined to allow nominees to be picked by party committees. Politico points out a potentially huge angle to all of this: the FEC says that since the special would constitute a new election, the candidates would be able to raise fresh money for that race – meaning that Kirk and Giannoulias could hit up maxed-out donors once more.

PA-Sen: But wait! Pat Toomey isn’t pulling a Pat Toomey! He’s coming out against Elena Kagan.

WV-Sen: When early word came that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wouldn’t run for Robert Byrd’s seat, we said that we’d move the race to Likely D. Capito made it official last Wednesday, so consider this move retroactive to that date.

MI-Gov: Bummer: Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has endorsed DLC Dem Andy Dillon, whom Dillon called a “kindred spirit.” Given Bing’s outsider status and short tenure, I suspect he’s not quite a “machine” mayor, though, who can deliver wards on the turn of a heel.

MN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer continues to burnish his moron credentials. The other day, he declared that Minnesota should pass its own GI bill to help veterans. Good idea, right? So good, in fact, that the state actually passed such a law three years ago. Even better: Emmer, a state representative, voted against the bill!

RI-Gov: Linc Chafee won the endorsement of the 10,000-strong Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, his first big union nod. The Projo says that the teachers had been favored to go to AG Patrick Lynch, but Lynch rather unexpectedly dropped out of the race not long ago, and evidently Dem Treasurer Frank Caprio didn’t suit them.

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley, a member of the Strength Through Crippling Austerity wing of the Republican Party, is trying to soften (i.e., flip-flop) some of her less business-friendly stances. The AP explains her shifts on two issues: the infamous anti-tax pledge sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform, and the bailout.

IL-17: Can an internal poll sometimes seem just too good? That’s how I feel about this survey by Magellan Strategies for GOPer Bobby Schilling, which has him up 45-32 over Dem Rep. Phil Hare. YMMV.

NY-13: John McCain is endorsing former FBI agent Mike Grimm in the GOP primary. Grimm has faced hostility from the Republican establishment here, which has backed Michael Allegretti (whom Maggie Haberman delightfully refers to with the epithet “Bayside fuel heir”). Apparently, McCain (who has a race of his own to worry about) will both fundraise and campaign for Grimm, though no word yet on when. As for why he’s getting involved, Haberman says it’s because of his relationship with Rudy Giuliani and Guy Molinari, both of whom are supporting Grimm.

NY-15: Charlie Rangel’s autobiography is titled “And I Haven’t Had a Bad Day Since,” referring to his service in the Korean War. Well, it sure seems like he’s had more than a few bad days lately, with the latest batch coming in the last week. The House Ethics Committee declared on Thursday that Rangel had indeed committed transgressions and created a new panel to investigate further. In response, Indiana senate candidate Brad Ellsworth announced he would give to charity all the money he’s received from Rangel (some $12K). Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-13) went one further, calling on Rangel to resign. For the record, Rangel disagrees with me, saying: “I’m not in a foxhole, I’m not surrounded by a million Chinese communists coming after me. Life is good. I’m 80 years old. I’m on my way to a parade.”

OK-05: SoonerPoll.com has a survey out of the 5th CD Republican field, finding former state Rep. Kevin Calvey increasing his lead from 20 to 28 since the last test in March. Some Dude James Lankford is in second with 20, followed by 15 for state Rep. Mike Thompson, 6 for state Rep. Shane Jett, and a bunch of other Some Dudes bringing up the rear.

PA-15: This is what we call a good get: Bill Clinton will be coming to Salisbury Township for a fundraiser for John Callahan on August 10th. As is so often the case with the Big Dog, this is payback for Callahan’s support of Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2008.

TN-09: Willie Herenton, asshole until the end:

Willie W. Herenton, the former mayor, is accusing Steve Cohen, the white two-term United States representative, of “trying to act black.” He tells voters in this majority-black city that they “need to come off that Cohen plantation and get on the Herenton freedom train.”

WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (memo here) which shows Dem Rep. Ron Kind up just 44-38.

We’re back from a successful Netroots Nation, and in the midst of sweeping up from half a week of limited posting, we’re going to do a polls-only digest first and tackle the rest of the damage later today.

• AK-Sen (pdf): Local pollster Ivan Moore is out with the first (and probably only) public look at the Republican primary between incumbent establishment figure Lisa Murkowski and Tea Party fave (and proxy for foxy GOP doxy Sarah Palin) Joe Miller. Y’know what? Alaskans know that their local economy is largely propped up with federal dollars, and the teabagger message isn’t likely to have much resonance here, no matter how much pro-gun posturing it gets dressed up in. The poll finds Murkowski with 53/29 positives, and a 62-30 lead over Miller.

• FL-Sen, FL-Gov (pdf): The Attack of the Shady Billionaires seems to continue unabated, as they pour even more money into advertising. PPP looks at both of their primaries. It’s still a close race in the Democratic Senate primary, where Rep. Kendrick Meek leads the yacht-crashing Jeff Greene 28-25 (with Tom Jensen observing “Democratic voters seem uninterested in this election,” with many of them already having settled on Charlie Crist). In the GOP gubernatorial primary, Columbia/HCA-crashing Rick Scott is in firm control, though, leading AG Bill McCollum 43-29. McCollum’s favorables among Republicans are a horrible 26/40, while Scott’s are 35/32.

• KY-Sen: Another public poll places the Kentucky Senate race in near-dead heat territory. Braun Research, on behalf of local politics website cn|2, finds Rand Paul with a 41-38 lead over Jack Conway. Conway has substantial leads among moderates (52-18) and among women (43-36).

• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon camp and the NRSC exchanged fire over the last few days, issuing dueling internal polls with dramatically different takes on their races. Melancon struck first with an Anzalone Liszt internal showing a much closer race than anyone has seen before: David Vitter led Melancon only 44-43 (the previous A-L internals had 10-point spreads). The NRSC responded with a POS poll over the weekend, giving Vitter a more predictable 48-31 lead when including leaners. Maybe more importantly, this poll is the first look at the GOP primary, and it shows Vitter may not have too much trouble with it: he claims a 76-5 lead over Chet Traylor.

• NC-Sen: Here’s one more Democratic internal that really serves to shake up what’s been considered a Republican-leaning race. The Elaine Marshall camp released a poll from Lake Research last Thursday giving her a 37-35 lead over Richard Burr (with 5 to Libertarian Mike Beitler). Burr’s favorables are 34/43, and he has a re-elect of 25/31, numbers no incumbent would like to see.

• GA-Gov (pdf): I have trouble believing this one, but maybe Nathan Deal, who seems to be staking out more conservative turf than Karen Handel, is consolidating more of the votes of the various primary losers than is Handel. Deal is out with a new internal, from McLaughlin & Associates, giving him a 39-38 lead over Handel in the GOP gubernatorial (or goober-natorial, in Georgia) runoff. 56% of respondents say Deal is conservative, while 35% say Handel is and 30% call her a moderate.

• MI-Gov: A new poll of the Democratic primary from Inside Michigan Politics gives a different result from just about everybody else: they give a significant lead to Virg Bernero, who leads Andy Dillon 36-22. The article is strangely silent on other details about the poll, especially the issue of sample size, where Inside Michigan Politics has been pushing the limits of credibility.

• OK-Gov: SoonerPoll.com, on behalf of the Tulsa World, is out with what’s probably the last word on the gubernatorial race before this Tuesday’s primaries. Tuesday night looks to be pretty drama-free: on the Dem side, AG Drew Edmondson leads LG Jari Askins 49-33 (up from a 10-point gap in their previous poll, way back in January). For the GOPers, Rep. Mary Fallin leads state Sen. Randy Brogdon 56-18 (which is actually a drop for Fallin from the last poll). They also look ahead to November matchups, finding Fallin leading Edmondson 47-39 and Askins 46-40.

• TN-Gov: The Tennessee primary will also be fast upon us, and Mason-Dixon, on behalf of the Tennessee Newspaper Network, takes their first look at the GOP gubernatorial primary there. Like other recent polls, they give the edge to Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam, who’s at 36. Rep. (and now, apparently, aspiring secessionist) Zach Wamp is at 25, and Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey is at 20. (All three candidates are from the eastern third of the state, and western Tennesseeans are disproportionately undecided (29%). That would tend to benefit the biggest advertiser, which is Haslam.) Mason-Dixon also tried out November matchups, finding Dem Mike McWherter looking DOA against the sorta-moderate Haslam, 49-31, but in closer races against the more strident Wamp (45-38) and Ramsey (43-38).

• PA-03: There’s one House internal to mention, and, as has been the trend lately, it’s from a Republican. It’s from a race that been on most people’s back-burners; we’ll have to see if this raises auto dealer Mike Kelly’s profile. Kelly’s own poll, via the Tarrance Group, give him a 48-37 lead over freshman Dem Kathy Dahlkemper.

• Rasmussen

• AR-Gov: Mike Beebe (D-inc) 50%, Jim Keet (R) 40%

• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln (D-inc) 35%, John Boozman (R) 60%

• AZ-Gov: Terry Goddard (D) 37%, Jan Brewer (R-inc) 56%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 20%, Marco Rubio (R) 35%, Charlie Crist (I) 33%

• FL-Sen: Jeff Greene (D) 19%, Marco Rubio (R) 34%, Charlie Crist (I) 36%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 43%, Nathan Deal (R) 49%

• GA-Gov: Roy Barnes (D) 44%, Karen Handel (R) 45%

• ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 53%

• ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy (D-inc) 46%, Rick Berg (R) 49%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Rick Lazio (R) 27%

• NY-Gov: Andrew Cuomo (D) 58%, Carl Paladino (R) 29%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 37%

• RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 33%, Victor Moffitt (R) 18%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 36%

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin (D) 51%, John Raese (R) 35%