Tag: OR-Sen

It’s the first of the month — so it’s time to update our Senate rankings.

It has been obvious for months that the 2008 Senate cycle would favor Democrats. Even before taking into account the anti-GOP national mood that allowed Democrats to prevail in every close Senate race in 2006 but Tennessee, the raw numbers tell the story: the GOP is defending 23 seats (since WY now has two seats to fill this cycle), and the Dems only 12. Add to this the continually deteriorating atmosphere for Republicans, and you get poor fundraising for the NRSC, recruitment failures, and pessimist Republican operatives. The DSCC has been moving aggressively to press its advantage and to expand the playing field to new states. For now, NRSC Chairman Ensign is doing an even worst job than Sen. Dole did in 2005-2006. His fundraising is even worse, and he has failed to recruit top-tier Republican challengers – something Dole had at least done a good job at (Kean in NJ and Steele in MD, who could both have won in an other election cycle).

The rankings reflect this state of affair. The races are ranked from most vulnerable to take-over to safest to the incumbent party – and the top 6 seats are Republican. In fact, there are only 2 Democratic seats (Louisiana and South Dakota) in this list of 15 races! The WaPo quotes a GOP pollster as saying, “It’s always darkest right before you get clobbered over the head with a pipe wrench. But then it actually does get darker.”

It is now too late for Republicans to reverse the situation – their endangered seats can no longer be made safe – but they can still hope to save face if they expand the playing field a bit: Democratic seats in Iowa and Montana have the potential of being competitive, but Republicans have barely made a move to challenge them yet. But this is one of the most important challenges facing the GOP in 2008: It is playing defense in so many states it can afford neither the time nor the money to go on the offensive against Democratic incumbents to at least test their vulnerability, and the NRSC is likely to settle on only challenging Landrieu in Louisiana.

Outlook: Democratic pick-up of 3-6 seats

Prediction: Democrats pick-up a net 5 seats, for a 56-44 majority.

The top 6 is after the jump. Read full rankings here, on Campaign Diaries.

Lean Takeover (3 Republican Seats, 0 Democratic Seats)

1. New Hampshire (Incumbent: Senator Sununu)

The Pennsylvania of the 2008 cycle. Sen. Sununu, preparing for his first re-election race, finds himself in a huge hole. If former Governor Shaheen enters the race in September (there hasn’t been much news from her since Robert Novak reported a few months back that her husband was saying there was a 70% she would run), she will start with a double-digit lead. A few polls already released have her 20% ahead. Casey was in a similar position against then Senator Santorum starting in the summer of 2005 – and he never looked back.

New Hampshire’s monumental swing to the Democrats in 2006 (they pulled two upsets to grab both the House seats and posted huge gains in the state house and in the state senate to take control of both) makes it that much harder for Sununu to hold on in a state that is clearly trending blue. And it also guarantees that the race stays competitive even if Shaheen takes a pass. The race will then undoubtedly be much closer, but the Democrats have other candidates that would make Sununu sweat it out. There are three candidates vying for the Democratic nod for now: Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, Katrina Swett and Jay Buckey. Swett has been painted by the netroots as a Lieberman-type moderate (she did support Lieberman’s independant campaign in 06) who has to be stopped at all costs in the primary, so things could get ugly pretty fast.

The safest bet is that they will all withdraw if Shaheen gets in, but they seem to be increasingly annoyed at the way they are being treated, so some of them might end up staying in. They were in particular annoyed at a DSCC release in early August that argued for the competitiveness of the NH race by touting Shaheen’s candidacy, but there were no mention of the other candidates.

2. Colorado (Open)

Senator Allard had come from behind to win re-election in 2002. But he clearly did not relish the thought of another close election, and he chose to call it quits early in the cycle. Colorado is the only open senate seat for now, and is on every Democrat’s target list. The Democratic field has quickly unified behind Rep. Udall, who has been preparing to run for years now. He has been raising a lot of money, and hoping to capitalize on the state’s blue trend: Salazar’s victory in 2004, two House seats picked-up in 2004 and 2006 and the 2006 take-over of the governorship.

Udall seemed to have closed the deal a few months ago when the Republican front-runner suddenly withdrew, leaving the Republicans without a strong candidate. But they quickly found former Rep. Bob Shaffer, who lost the 2004 Senate Republican primary. Shaffer is strongly conservative, and the Democrats will paint him as too far to the right. But Republicans will strike right back, charging Udall is too liberal for the state (it is true that Udall represents one of the more Democratic districts in the state, and that his voting record has put him in the liberal wing of the House).

The race has not been particularly eventful for now – except for recent allegations that Shaffer has engaged in some unethical conduct, a story to be followed for sure.

3. Virginia (Open seat)

Sen. John Warner announced on Friday, August 31st that he will not run for a six-term. Virginia thus became a huge opportunity for Democrats. But to capitalize on the state’s recent move towards the Democratic Party (, the Democrats need popular former Governor Mark Warner to jump in the race for the Democrats. This would make it very difficult for Republicans to keep the seat.

Yes, Virginia remains a Republican state – and the GOP nominee will be strongly favored in the presidential election. But the Democrats are on a roll in the state with the back-to-back victories of Gov. Kaine in 2005 and Sen. Webb in 2006. And Mark Warner left office immensely popular, which probably is what got Kaine elected in the first place. To make matters worse, the Republicans are likely to break in a bitter fight, with conservatives already lining up behind former Governor (and brief presidential candidate) Gilmore to block Rep. Tom Davis, a moderate Republican who has been raising a lot of money (and who was all but endorsed today by John Warner).

This would not, however, be a blowout for Democrats. Virginia is still a Republican state – and the increased turnout of a presidential year would guarantee that the race stays close. Also, if the Republican candidate is Davis, he could neutralize some of the Democratic advantage in Fairfax, since he represents the Northern part of the state in Congress. And if Mark Warner takes a pass (and he certainly could, either because he wants to run for Governor again in 2009 or because he wants to stay in contention to be the vice-presidential pick next summer), Republicans would be once again favored to hold on to this seat.

Toss-up (3 R, 1 D)

4. Oregon (Incumbent: Gordon Smith)

Gordon Smith has known he has a target on his back for a while now, and he has taken steps accordingly. He has been the first Republican Senator to break with Bush on the War – but is that too little too late? Like all Republican defectors, Smith has never voted against the Administration on war-related issues, and Democrats are poised to use this to attack him. Oregon is a blue state – albeit by the smallest of margins – and the Democrat will benefit from presidential coattails. Until recently, Democrats did not have a candidate, as their top choices passed on the race one after the other. But they suddenly got two! The favorite is shaping to be Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House – widely credited for organizing the Democratic take-over of that chamber last year, and for going forward with a progressive agenda since then.

5. Maine (Incumbent: Susan Collins)

If New Hampshire is this cycle’s Pennsylvania, Maine could be its Rhode Island. A popular Republican incumbent in a very blue state facing a Democrat who does his best to tie him to the Bush Administration and the Iraq War. Olympia Snowe got a pass in 2006, but Sen. Susan Collins is getting no such thing. Rep. Tom Allen has already started running against her, and the race is heating up.

But Collins is no Chaffee. Chaffee committed mistake after mistake, falling behind early in the fall of 2006. He also faced a significant challenge on the Right, only surviving his primary 54% to 46%. Collins faces no such hurdle, and has already set her sight on Allen. Democratic operatives have realized how hard it will to drive Collins down, and it is no coincidence that the blogosphere is going after her the hardest: DailyKos is pouncing Collins for a seemingly minor controversy over her demand that Allen stop sending people to film her, and state papers are jumping in the fray – mostly against Collins.

6. Minnesota (Incumbent: Norm Coleman)

Yes, Al Franken appears to be for real. He has raised millions of dollars, and is attacking Senator Coleman from all directions. But he will first have to survive the primary against very wealthy businessman Mike Ciresi, who is willing to spend his own money to win the race. The big question for now is whether Al Franken is electable – the answer could very well be that this is the state that made Jesse Ventura governor. Coleman is definitely vulnerable, and early polls show him winning against Franken and Ciresi by about 7%. The tragic end of the 2002 campaign – in which Coleman defeated Mondale after Senator Wellstone’s late October death – has made this seat a top Democratic target for five years now.

Read the rest of the rankings – all the way to number 20 – here, at Campaign Diaries!

Oregon’s Speaker of the House, Democrat Jeff Merkley, is wasting no time in making a mark in his bid to topple faux-moderate Republican Sen. Gordon Smith next year.  From an e-mail release issued this morning:

My fellow Americans,

“I don’t recall.”  “I don’t remember.”  “I don’t know.”

Is it really possible that Alberto Gonzales is that checked out from the day-to-day operations in the Justice Department?  He may have been the President’s personal attorney back in Texas, but he’s the Attorney General now – and he’s failing the American people.

He’s become an embarrassment.  And worse, he’s become the single strongest example of political corruption and abuse of power in the Bush Administration.

Under Gonzalez’ embarrassing stewardship, they’ve fired U.S. Attorneys for political reasons.  He’s authorized illegal wiretaps of American citizens.  He even tried to strong-arm then-Attorney General John Ashcroft into authorizing the illegal wiretapping program while he lay gravely ill in a hospital bed.  And now he won’t tell Congress the whole truth about what’s happening on his watch.

It’s time for Alberto Gonzales to be fired.

If the President won’t fire him, then the Congress should impeach him.

As mcjoan pointed out today, no one in the Senate has been this bold in calling for the impeachment of Alberto Gonzalez.  This move by Merkley is not just crashing out of the gate–it’s screaming out of the gate.

If this is the kind of campaign that Merkley has in store for us–bold and aggressive–count me down as a fan.

On the tubes: Jeff Merkley for U.S. Senate

Has the DSCC found its candidate in Oregon?  According to the AP, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley is almost ready to enter the race against Republican Senator Gordon Smith:

Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley plans to file notice with the Federal Election Commission by Aug. 1 that he'll be running for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican Gordon Smith, two sources close to the campaign told The Associated Press Tuesday.

Merkley is on vacation in Central Oregon with his family this week, and wants to consult with them one last time before making the final, firm decision to challenge Smith, according to a strategist who has been advising Merkley.

“He could come back and say, 'We've decided that we are just not ready for this,” the strategist said. “I strongly believe that is not going to happen.”

The DSCC's wooing campaign, including favorable internal polls and face time with freshmen Senators, apparently paid off:

Merkley has met with many of the freshmen Democratic senators elected in 2006, including Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, all of whom encouraged him to run, sources said.

He's also been encouraged by recent internal polling, which has shown him within striking distance of the far-better-known Smith, who already has $3.5 million stockpiled for the race. National Democrats, who say Smith is one of their top three or four targets in 2008, have pledged to Merkley that he'll be “financially competitive,” and will likely pay for television ads to be in heavy rotation.

Meanwhile, activist and attorney Steve Novick, the only official challenger in the race so far, released a statement proving that he's a real class act:

Novick, though, said he would “welcome Jeff to the race, and look forward to a series of joint appearances around the state, where each of us will make the case for why Gordon needs to be replaced.”

How refreshing it is to hear a candidate press on undeterred, continuing to make their case for change while pointedly not whining about being “muscled out” of the race by “DC insiders”.  Rock on, Steve.

(H/T: Blue Oregon) 

(If you’ve got any other Q2 numbers, post them in the comments. – promoted by James L.)

[Originally posted today at Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in.  The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised “about” $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000.  UNO Dems reminds us that “Bob Kerrey’s still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account.”  Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million.  Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.

Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter.  (Retirement announcement on the way?)

[Cross-posted at my blog Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.]

2008 could be a record year for unexpected Republican primaries. Whether or not strong contenders emerge, Republican primaries are, of course, expected in states from South Dakota to New Jersey, states with Democratic Senate incumbents but a handful (or more) of ambitious Republicans itching to take their shots. And, of course, there will be notable Democratic primaries ranging from Minnesota to Georgia. But the number of unexpected potential Republican primaries for Senate in 2008 is running high.

There are a number of reasons for this. One reason, illustrated more clearly in the Republican Presidential primary, is general discontent by Republican voters of Republican candidates and officials.  Another reason is that Republicans are particularly divided over the issue of immigration reform. Another reason could be that, in many races, the incumbent Republican simply isn’t conservative enough for the base.  Though several of these states with unexpected potential Republican primaries are traditionally red states, the emergence of a viable Democratic challenger in many of these states makes the possibility of a primary all the more daunting for Republicans.

(Much more below the fold.)

Lack of Leadership

Kentucky: Many elements of the conservative base are growingly unhappy with Mitch McConnell’s helming of Senate Republicans, and none have been more vocal than the conservative blogosphere across the country, many of whom have focused on their discontent with McConnell’s support for Bush’s bipartisan immigration reform attempts.  Further, in Kentucky, 1995 GOP gubernatorial nominee Larry Forgy, a loyalist to corrupt incumbent Governor Ernie Fletcher, has hinted that he would consider or support a primary challenge to McConnell if he felt McConnell did not do enough to help Fletcher’s embattled re-election bid.  While McConnell enjoys a hefty bankroll, the power of his political machine has diminished as demonstrated by Anne Northup’s gubernatorial primary defeat to Ernie Fletcher.  If a Republican primary challenger sapped significant resources of McConnell’s, he could find himself very vulnerable to a viable Democrat, say either 2003 Lt. Gov. nominee Charlie Owen or state Attorney General Greg Stumbo.

Immigration Reform

South Carolina: Primarily driven by anger over Lindsey Graham’s support for immigration reform, the South Carolina conservative netroots have begun voicing their displeasure with Graham and desire for a primary challenger.  Dump Lindsey.org and Dump Lindsey Graham express South Carolina conservatives’ preference for a replacement for Graham.  As Hotline’s Blogometer reported:

A new project launched by conservative bloggers promises a primary challenge for any GOP Senator who votes for the [immigration reform] proposal. The most prominent in that field? None other than McCain supporter Lindsay Graham (R-SC). So far, there have been rumblings of a primary challenge for Graham but no candidate yet. If the revived immigration plan comes up to a vote, will Graham’s yea or ney be the triggering mechanism?

This project is called The Payback Project and it seems to have successfully spooked Saxby Chambliss of Georgia into distancing himself from the immigration reform legislation.  If Graham continues his support for the immigration reform legislation, expect talk of a primary to intensify.  After that, Democrats still need to come through with a viable Senate candidate.

Not “Conservative” Enough

Oregon: For more than a decade, Gordon Smith has been Oregon’s only statewide Republican.  He has achieved this by presenting himself as a moderate who can voice Oregon’s concerns to the Republican leadership in the White House and Congress.  But with the Republican brand inreasingly tarnished, and with Smith’s back-and-forth on Iraq demonstrating his lack of integrity, he is coming off as too far to the right for Oregon moderates but also too fiscally irresponsible for conservatives.  As such, 1998 GOP gubernatorial nominee Bill Sizemore has hinted that he would consider a primary challenge to Smith.  While Democrats have had a difficult time recruiting a top-tier challenger for Smith, the job would be considerably easier if a Republican primary challenger pulled Smith to the right and sapped significant resources.

Minnesota: Norm Coleman finds himself in a similar situation to Gordon Smith, having to maintain moderate credibility to ensure a necessary breadth of support.  Minnesota will have no shortage of Democratic candidates itching to take Coleman on, be it a famous satirist, an attorney who slew Big Tobacco, a Nobel Laureate, and so on.  It would help the eventual Democratic nominee if Coleman was pulled to the right and had resources sapped by a primary challenger.  Enter Joe Repya, a military veteran and former advisor to Coleman who is considering entering the race.  Despite Repya’s ideological position to the right of the GOP, his apparent sincerity and straightforwardness would offer a damaging foil for the political opportunist Coleman and severely weaken his character before entering the general election, if he wins the primary, that is.

Retirements

Colorado: Senator Wayne Allard has retired and former Rep. Bob Schaffer appears to be the presumptive Republican Senate nominee for 2008.  But enough rumblings keep occuring suggesting that a bloc of the CO-GOP is not convinced Schaffer is a viable candidate against Democratic Congressman Mark Udall.  As such, we could still see a CO-GOP primary, leaving the eventual Republican nominee worse for the wear.

Nebraska: There will be a Republican primary in Nebraska.  The only question is whether or not Chuck Hagel will be involved.  If he is, Hagel will likely still see opposition from state Attorney General Jon Bruning, whose campaign has highlighted Hagel’s lack of support for the Bush administration on Iraq, and former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub.  If Hagel does not run for re-election, expect those two candidates plus businessman Tony Raimondo and who knows how many others might consider a bid for an open seat.  This would not be as notable a scenario if it wasn’t for the fact that two prominent Nebraska Democrats were considering Senate bids: Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey and former Senator Bob Kerrey.  As it seems unlikely that there would be a Democratic primary, whichever Democrat steps up will be at full strength to await a battle-bruised, resource-diminished Republican.

Idaho: If Larry Craig doesn’t retire, than this paragraph is moot.  However, if I had to make a wager, I’d bet on a Craig retirement.  Should Craig retire, Idaho’s GOP Lt. Gov. Jim Risch has been drooling to enter the Senate race and GOP Rep. Mike Simpson has at times expressed interest.  While Idaho is just about as red a state as there is, the ID-Dems have put up their strongest Senate candidate in years in former Congressman Larry LaRocco.  Should Craig retire and a rough Republican primary politically injury the eventual Republican nominee, Democrats would have their best opportunity in years for a Senate pickup here.

Ethics Problems

New Mexico: Pete Domenici’s role in the Attorney Purge scandal has been widely reported and its impact on Domenici’s approval rating has been observed.  With Domenici’s approval bottoming out, for the moment, around 50%, he is still awaiting the results of the Senate Ethics Committee’s investigation.  Should findings or political fallout result in a Domenici retirement or resignation, we could very well see a Republican primary in New Mexico to replace Domenici.  Though far-right GOP Rep. Steve Pearce would be the frontrunner, a less far-right Republican might see an opening for a challenge.  Meanwhile, the prospect of an open seat could entice Democratic Congressman Tom Udall or another top-tier Democrat to enter the race.

Alaska: As Ted Stevens gets more deeply embroiled in FBI investigations surrounding renovations to his home and his relationship with the corrupt VECO Corporation, coupled with Stevens advanced age, declining poll numbers, and increased interest from Democratic Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, Stevens could yet opt for retirement (if the FBI’s investigation doesn’t turn up something sooner that might force Stevens from the Senate), leaving Alaska wide open for a Republican Senate primary.

With the NRSC’s fundraising being well eclipsed by the DSCC, and with 21 Republican incumbents to protect compared with 12 Democrats, Republican Senate resources will be spread awfully thin in 2008.  The prospect of all these primaries, sapping already sparse resources, looms large over Republicans hoping to minimize losses in 2008 following a majority-losing 2006.

It’s certainly a long way from being a formidable amount, but I thought this note from Steve Novick, the only announced Democratic challenger against Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, was pretty cool:

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Steve Novick announced today that he has raised over $100,000 for his campaign, all from individuals. “Over 300 good, generous, progressive individuals, who are committed to electing a Senator who will fight runaway economic inequality, work hard for universal health care, fight global warming, and work to get the Federal budget back into shape,” Novick added.

Although recognizing that the ultimate cost of a Senate campaign will be in the millions, Novick said that the early success demonstrates that “in the words of the Talking Heads, this ain’t no party, this ain’t no disco, this ain’t no foolin’ around.” (Emphasis added)

Race Tracker: OR-Sen

(Cross-posted at MyDD.)

Back in April, in the face of massive public support for a clear timeline to end the war in Iraq, only two Republicans in the House and two in the Senate dared to buck the White House’s pressure tactics and vote for the Iraq Accountability Act. The four were Sen. Gordon Smith (R-OR), Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC), and Rep. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD).

Coincidentally, all four are now facing potential primary challenges from the right.

In Nebraska, Sen. Hagel, the most noted opponent of Bush’s Iraq policy in his party, is facing a very real challenge from Attorney General Jon Bruning (who even led Hagel in a recent primary poll):

“It’s pretty clear Nebraska voters understand Sen. Hagel is voting with the Democratic Party on the issue that they feel is most important at this time, which is the Iraq war, and that’s troubling to them”

Meanwhile, in Oregon, Sen. Smith is facing the current wrath and potential candidacy of anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore for his perceived lack of partisan loyalty:

“At the national level, Democrats are licking their chops at the prospect of defeating Gordon Smith. After all he has done for liberals in Oregon, they still want to take him out, simply because he is a Republican. To them, a Republican in name only is still a Republican. Smith’s political vulnerability is no secret.”

Rep. Walter “Freedom Fries” Jones’ marked turn away from supporting Bush’s Iraq policy has been the “single issue” encouraging Joseph McLaughlin, an obscure country commissioner, to challenge the seven-term Congressman from a “safe seat” in North Carolina:

“A number of us have become very concerned about his drift to the left, espousing ideas that we don’t think reflect the views of the conservative base back in the district,” McLaughlin said. “Virtually every major vote on the war on terror, he has lined up with the liberals.”

And in Maryland, Rep. Gilchrest is facing a well-organized primary challenge from right-wing State Senator Andy Harris:

“People across the country desire to return to the Reagan values that brought the Republican Party to power – fiscal responsibility, a strong national defense, traditional values and an optimistic view of this country and its role as a world leader,” Harris said.

Primary challenges are wonderful things. In our two-party, big-money system with engineered super-safe districts for incumbents, it’s where the real small-d democracy gets done these days. The more choices for voters, the better. These four potential primaries, as well as the presidential primaries in the early states, will have the added benefit of providing an early look for the entire nation at the direction GOP activists want the Republican party to take on Iraq.

However, this pro-democracy opinion of primaries (especially those where Iraq is a major issue) was certainly not one shared by right-wing and “centrist” politicians, “civil” pro-war pundits, and other members of the “reasonable” traditional media establishment, all of whom happily took part in last summer’s Rove-inspired media orgy demonizing the year’s most significant primary challenge and grassroots movement as nothing but an attempted party “purge.” (Nevermind that the incumbent in question actually promised to quit the party himself before the primary, and then swiftly followed up on it after losing).

So, a question: How many of the following figures who were so quick to see Stalinism in Stamford last August will be denouncing pro-war Republicans for their attempted quadruple “purge” this cycle? Don’t hold your breath:

It’s no wonder that so much time is being given to the Democratic primary in Connecticut, and that so many voices are being heard. The ideological triumphalists proclaim it a great renewal in the Democratic Party, beginning with the glorious purge of Sen. Joseph Lieberman.

– William F. Buckley, August 12, 2006

It should be noted that both Cheney and Mehlman pointedly referred to the Lamont win as a “purge,” echoing the seminal anti-Lamont editorial by the Democratic Leadership Council from two months ago which used the term eight times. They were joined in that effort last week by virtually the entire conservative punditry establishment, with everyone from Cal Thomas (“Purge by Taliban Democrats” was his clever innovation) to American Conservative Union chief Patrick Keene (“The purge that began with the McGovernite seizure of the party . . . “) to Foundation for Defense of Democracies president Clifford May (“The August Purge of Lieberman,” a funny historical malapropism; May was trying to echo Soviet Russia, which had an August putsch, not a purge) to Fox’s John McIntyre to a whole host of others decrying Lamont’s supporters as rich, elitist, neo-commie liberals bent on softening us all up for a terrorist attack, apparently just for the pure, America-hating thrill of it.

– Matt Taibbi, Rolling Stone, August 15, 2006

Meanwhile, the New York Times’s David Brooks lashed out at the “liberal inquisition” unfolding in Connecticut, the type of phenomenon that could be understood “only [by] experts in moral manias and mob psychology.” ABC’s Cokie Roberts sang from the choir sheet this Sunday morning, announcing a Lamont win would mean “a disaster for the Democratic Party.”

Roberts’s ABC colleague Jake Tapper labeled Lieberman’s challenge as a “a party purge of a moderate Democrat”; a cliché repeated constantly among the talking heads. Los Angeles Times columnist Jonathan Chait ridiculed grassroots Lamont activists by suggesting “their technique of victory-via-purge is on display in Connecticut.” Martin Peretz, editor in chief of The New Republic, who in a recent radio interview refused to say whether he actually wanted Democrats to gain control of Congress in November, denounced the “thought-enforcers of the left” supporting Lamont, whom Peretz mocked as “Karl Rove’s dream come true.”

Earlier in the campaign, Washington Post columnist David Broder dismissed Connecticut’s progressives as “elitist insurgents.” Over at the Rothenberg Political Report, Beltway mainstay Stuart Rothenberg was in a tizzy that Lamont’s win would “only embolden the crazies in the [Democratic] party,” the “bomb-throwers.” (Like Broder, Rothenberg opted for terror terminology to describe the democratic process unfolding in Connecticut.)

– Eric Boehlert, The Nation, August 11, 2006

“And as I look at what happened yesterday, it strikes me that it’s a perhaps unfortunate and significant development from the standpoint of the Democratic Party, that what it says about the direction the party appears to be heading in when they, in effect, purge a man like Joe Lieberman, who was just six years ago their nominee for Vice President, is of concern, especially over the issue of Joe’s support with respect to national efforts in the global war on terror.”

– Vice President Cheney, August 9, 2006

Disappointing news:

After Peter DeFazio announced his decision not to run for the Senate, the race became an unavoidable topic. I said I would look at it and consider whether a candidacy made sense for me and my family. At this time, it does not, and I have decided not to run for the US Senate.

…

The difficulty in even doing the ground work to evaluate the race was that I have an important, all consuming day job. After years of working in the minority, fighting the Bush administration and Tom DeLay to stop reckless policies and promote Oregon priorities, the world has dramatically changed.

My issues, from ending the Iraq war to stopping global warming, to making sure everyone has health care they can afford, a quality education, and a good job, have gained not just attention, but traction and even momentum. My committee assignments put me in the best possible position to deal with these priorities everyday. I’ve been working for over a decade to get on the Ways and Means Committee and to regain a Democratic majority. I say with January both of these dreams become a reality. Speaker Nancy Pelosi also chose me to serve on the new Global Warming and Energy Independence Committee.

At this unique moment in history there is too much work to be done in the House of Representatives to take on a campaign for the US Senate.

As you can see, giving up a seat in the majority caucus in the House is tough indeed. All the more reason to be impressed with Mark Udall’s and Tom Allen’s decision to seek higher office. But they may be the only sitting Congressmen to do so this cycle. Chuck Schumer will likely have to look elsewhere for his top-tier recruits. However, I’m not all that worried – last cycle, only one of our top Senate candidates* was a member of the House. I think we’ll be able to find plenty of good office-seekers from other quarters this time, too.

* Who challenged an incumbent – Sherrod Brown. Brownsox reminds us about Ben Cardin, Bernie Sanders and Harold Ford.

From The Oregonian:

Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., said in an interview today that he has decided not to challenge Sen. Gordon Smith, R-Ore.

DeFazio had been the top choice of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, after a DSCC-commissioned poll showed him ahead of Smith. But the 11-term Congressman chairs a powerful House Transportation subcommittee responsible for doling out hundreds of billions of dollars of highway funding.

[…]

“I just did not feel that becoming a junior member of the Senate was going to allow me to serve as well and as effectively, particularly in the short term, as my current position,” DeFazio said.

“This was not an easy decision,” DeFazio said. “You don’t get a poll that shows you’re ahead of an incumbent senator and generous offers of support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and just blow it off. It was a long and serious deliberation on my part.”

With the only Democratic names in the race being businessman Ty Pettit and attorney Steve Novick, all eyes now turn to 3rd District Rep. Earl Blumenauer.  Sources tell me that Blumenauer will likely pursue the nomination, but we’ll have to wait and see.

(Hat-tip to hubbird.)

Race Tracker: OR-Sen

While there has been talk for a while that Gordon Smith may face a challenge from the right, it now appears there is a name attached to that prospect. The Associated Press is reporting that anti-tax activist and form gubernatorial candidate Bill Sizemore is considering doing a little bit of our work for us.

National Democrats have made it plain that one of their top targets in the 2008 Senate election will be Oregon Republican Sen. Gordon Smith, who has been reaching out more to moderate voters of late.

But Smith also could face potential trouble within his own party at home.

There are rumors that Smith might draw a primary challenge from the party’s right wing. A national group that promotes fiscal conservatism is making noises about possibly bankrolling such an effort.

A GOP primary challenge could force Smith — who has broken with President Bush and the Republican Party on Iraq and other issues — to veer more to the right, which could harm his chances in a state that’s trending more blue….

Anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore, who was trounced when he ran against then-Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber in 1998, said recently that he’s giving thought to possibly taking on Smith.

Oh please please please run, Bill. If he does, Peter DeFazio or any other candidate can sit back while Smith has to fend off this challenge from his right. If there is anything you can do to egg Sizemore, feel free to do so. 😉