OR-Sen – Page 4 – Swing State Project

Blue Dawn: Final Oregon Predictions and Viewing Guide

The genesis for this title is a Willamette Week article titled “Red Dawn” published in July of 2006 which claimed, at the time, to show evidence of a Republican surge in the Beaver State. It goes without saying that those predictions were dead wrong as the Democratic party has more than tripled its registration edge in my home state and seems poised to post strong wins statewide. Below are my final summary predictions and some things to watch Thursday.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.

Democrats: 45%

Republicans: 32.5%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 23.5%.

Turnout Projection: 80-85%. We’re at about 54% as of yesterday in Multnomah County, which closely parallels the state as a whole (http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2008-11/turnout.shtml). Democrats are currently outvoting Republicans by 7% and Independents/Third Party Members are lagging well behind that pace. As of now, just less than half of the votes cast in Oregon have been cast by Democrats. I doubt that margin will hold but if we end up anywhere close to that it will be a very good night. FYI, there is not a single county in the state currently where a higher percentage of Republicans have voted than Democrats.

This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.

How to Watch OR Results:

There are four good places to track Oregon’s results:

Official SOS vote tracker-http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/. Note: There is no link there yet but it will go active on election night at 8 PM. This is the best statewide results tracker.

KGW (Portland’s NBC affiliate)-http://www.kgw.com/. Widely considered the best in Portland, KGW often does live streams of its election results broadcasts.

The Oregonian-http://www.oregonlive.com/-Oregon’s largest statewide paper, based in Portland.

The Register-Guard-http://www.registerguard.com/web/news/index.csp-The leading paper in Eugene, Oregon’s second largest city.

Results Reporting:

Results will typically be released on the following schedule (all times Pacific):

8 PM-Ballots due, Multnomah County releases its first count (ballots cast before Monday night), expect this result to be skewed in Obama’s favor.

9-9:30 PM-Major counting completed of ballots cast prior to Monday/Tuesday in most counties. Results are typically updated every 30-60 minutes.

11 PM-Most results apparent. If the margin is 3% or less we may have to wait overnight but anything more than that they’ll have called it by now.

12 PM Wednesday-Count completed by this time.

FYI, exit polling IS conducted via phone survey, so you can expect a call on the Presidential race at least AT 8 PM.

Things to watch for:

Washington and Clackamas Counties-If either goes blue, Merkley will win the Senate race, period. I’m betting Washington does and Clackamas will be close.

36 State House Seats-Thanks to one of our crazy ballot measures in the 90s, you need a 3/5 majority in the legislature to pass revenue increases. We have that in the Senate and will not lose it. We need a net gain of 5 (which is I would say very possible) to get it in the State house.

Dark House State House races-There are always 1 or 2 that no one expects to be close but are (the races in Medford and the Dalles last time were and Minnis’s seat was shockingly close in 2004). They are almost never actual upsets but this year they may be.

Projected Results:

For a more detailed description of results, read my prior diary: How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s party formed to get him on the ballot).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Key:

x-=Pickup.

l-=Loss.

Statewide Candidates:

US President-Obama (D).

US Senate=x-Merkley (D).

Secretary of State-Brown (D).

Attorney General-Kroger (D).

State Treasurer-Westlund (D).

Labor Commissioner-Avakian (Nonpartisan Office).

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Explanation of Special Case for Measures 57/61: Once it became apparent to the legislature last year that what is now known as Measure 61 would qualify and would likely pass, they referred their own alternative (Measure 57) to the ballot. In order to deal with conflicts should both pass (as many, if not most, consider likely), the legislature put a clause in Measure 57 stating that if both pass, the one with more yes votes becomes law while the other fails.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Projection: Pass.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Projection: Pass.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Projection: Pass with more votes than Measure 61, thus becoming law.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor home modifications (costing less than $35k) without a permit.

Projection: Fail.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Projection: Fail.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc).

District 2: Walden (R-inc).

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc).

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc).

District 5: Schrader (D).

Oregon Legislature:

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate:

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in. I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Competitive Races:

9 (Stayton)-Girod (R).

12 (McMinnville)-Boquist (R).

*27 (Bend)-l-Telfer (R).

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

7 (Roseburg)-Hanna (R).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

9 (Coos Bay)-Roblan (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

22 (Woodburn)-Komp (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

Projected Pickups (all D):

*26 (Wilsonville)-x-Adamson (D).

*37 (West Linn)-x-Eberle (D).

*49 (Gresham)-x-Kahl (D).

*50 (Fairview)-x-Matthews (D).

*51 (Clackamas)-x-Barton (D).

*52 (Corbett)-x-VanOrman (D).

*54 (Bend)-x-Stiegler (D).

Projected Holds (D or R):

Note: These are all possible takeovers by the opposition party. I am merely stating that I think they are more likely to be holds than takeovers, although in some cases, like the Canby seat, it will be very close.

6 (Medford)-Esquivel (R).

15 (Albany)-Olson (R).

17 (Scio)-Sprenger (R).

18 (Silverton)-Gilliam (R).

19 (Salem)-Cameron (R).

20 (Independence/Monmouth)-Berger (R).

23 (Dallas)-Thompson (R).

24 (McMinnville)-Wiedner (R).

*30 (Hillsboro)-Edwards (D).

*39 (Canby)-Kennemer (R).

59 (The Dalles)-Huffman (R).

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

R2K Compendium

Markos has the Daily Kos polling firehose open at full blast. Here’s a quick roundup of this final set of R2K polls:

KY-Sen:

Lunsford (D): 44 (42)

McConnell (R-inc): 47 (46)

MN-Sen:

Franken (D): 40 (41)

Coleman (R-inc): 43 (39)

Barkley (I): 15 (18)

MS-Sen:

Musgrove (D): 44 (46)

Wicker (R-inc): 51 (47)

OR-Sen:

Merkley (D): 48 (47)

Smith (R-inc): 42 (41)

Bonus MN-Sen poll: An MPR/UMN poll (PDF) shows Franken leading 41-37-17. At the start of October, it was 36F-38C-14B.

OR-Sen: Gordon Smith is Going to Lose

SurveyUSA (10/29-30, likely voters, 10/25-26 in parens):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (49)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (42)

Dave Brownlow (C): 5 (5)

(MoE: ±3.8%)

Last summer, I had an informal phone conversation with someone fairly high up on the food chain over at the DSCC (which, I assure you, is not something I do everyday). At the time, Democrats still hadn’t recruited a top-tier candidate to run against Gordon Smith, and some folks in left blogistan (myself included) were worried that this opportunity was slipping away. The DSCC staffer, at that early time, seemed more enthusiastic about this race than any of the other Senate races on the table (remember, Virginia and New Mexico weren’t yet open seats at that time). I admit that I didn’t quite buy it.

But here we are, almost 18 months later, and Gordon Smith is going to lose:

OR-Sen: Merkley on Brink of Defeating Smith

Public Policy Polling (10/28-30, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 51

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 43

Dave Brownlow (C): 4

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Those are beautiful numbers, but these are even better: 59% of likely voters have filled in their ballots so far, and of that group, Merkley is ahead by 59-37. My crude back-of-the-cocktail napkin analysis says that Smith would have to take roughly two-thirds of the outstanding vote in order to pull off a win here. And while Smith leads among likely voters who have yet to complete their ballots (by 51-39 over Merkley), that’s not enough to erase the strong early edge that Merkley has built up.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 56-42.

UPDATE by Crisitunity:

Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/14 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (47)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)

Some other: 4 (n/a)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen polls Oregon too, and the results are good, with Merkley up by 3. Now 3 might not seem that confidence-inspiring compared with other pollsters’ numbers in this race, but bear in mind that a) this is the first time Merkley has sported a lead in a Rasmussen poll, and b) Rasmussen keeps on not including Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party, who is bleeding off votes on Smith’s right flank (although this time they do report that 4% plan to vote for ‘some other’ candidate).

How Blue will Oregon Be?: My Near-Final Predictions

With a week to go, it is time for me to really make some predictions about where the races will go this fall. I will update them on November 4 but if I had to guess, what is below is what I think will happen. The real question for Democrats, in summary, will be not will they increase their majority but by how much.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.2 Million.

Democrats: 45%

Republicans: 32.5%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 23.5%.

Turnout Projection: 85-90%. We are maybe just slightly behind where we were in 2004 when we finished with 86% turnout BUT the pace has picked up and I think that we’ll get close to 90% by the time it’s all said and done. Typically we can take the turnout Friday before the election and roughly double it to get the projected turnout. We’re at about 28-30% right now (an inference made from looking at today’s Multnomah County returns, which tend to parallel the state as a whole at http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/dbcs/elections/2008-11/turnout.shtml).

This means I think that about 900-950k votes will be required to win statewide, once you account for third party votes in many races.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party. All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

P=Peace Party (Ralph Nader’s party formed to get him on the ballot).

N=Not a member of a party, or what is otherwise known as independent.

Key:

x-=Pickup.

l-=Loss.

Statewide Candidates:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: This has always been Obama’s state and it will remain that way convincingly

Projected Winner: Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Jeff Merkley appears to be on a clear both to victory. Not that he can’t lose this but he is ahead and unless something fundamental changes very soon, Merkley will be Oregon’s next Senator.

Projected Winner: x-Merkley.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Rick Dancer may make it a little closer than previously expected, having run a number of TV ads financed primarily by timber interests. Still, Brown should have little trouble winning this race.

Projected Winner: Brown.

Note: Brown would be the first GLBT candidate ever elected to statewide office in the US, a fact which has honestly not come up at all in the campaign.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

Projected Winner: Kroger.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: Again Alley may narrow the margin a bit but I really doubt it’ll end up being that close in the end. Westlund cruises.

Projected Winner: Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-int.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics and the lack of funding for any of his opponents.

Projected Winner: Avakian.

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Projection: Pass.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Projection: Pass, I really don’t think this will be that close.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative. Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Projection: Pass with more votes than Measure 61, thus becoming law. I think that both will pass though.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Projection: Fail, this has really not gained any traction at all and should fail pretty convincingly.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns. This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Projection: Fail, the third time is NOT the charm for Sizemore.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Projection: Fail, as noted before, a similar measure failed in 2000 with 65% against. Thus, in this climate its hard to imagine it doing much better.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Projection: Pass but with less votes than Measure 57, thus meaning it effectively fails.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Projection: Fail, I think the message has gotten out that this cuts money from schools and people like money for schools. It could be close though.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: A wide coalition led by building companies.

Projection: Fail, Sizemore continues his losing streak here.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Projection: Fail, the third time is not the charm once again.

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Projection: Fail, narrowly. This is a gut feeling and I may well be dead wrong but I just think the major party opposition will kill this.

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble. If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) faces only minor party opposition.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Yes Erickson has money, yes he has been running ads but no I don’t think he has much of a chance of winning this one. Schrader wins easily.

Projected Winner: Schrader.

Oregon Legislature:

Key: *=Targeted Seat.

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Ratings Changes:

None.

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-x-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D)-This one may be a bit closer than expected because the Rs have fielded a candidate via write-in. I still believe it is going to be Monnes Anderson by a lot though.

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

Competitive Races:

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs. Girod still has the edge though.

Projected Winner: Girod.

3rd-12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat. This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Projected Winner: Boquist.

*27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican). I dont’t think it will happen but this one to watch..

Projected Winner: l-Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 38 D, 22 R.

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

Projected Pickups (all D):

*26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap. In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for using a screwdriver on his son. Wingard has run a bad campaign, Adamson a good one, I’m calling the upset.

Projected Winner: x-Adamson.

*37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Were this 20 years ago, or even 10, Eberle would have absolutely no chance in this district given the Bruun family’s strong legacy there. This year is not normal, however, and Eberle has been running a great campaign. I’m calling it a pickup.

Projected Winner: x-Eberle.

*49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district. Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced. Kahl certainly would appear to face an uphill battle but this district’s D tilt should be enough to put him over the top.

Projected Winner: x-Kahl.

*50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery. Matthews finally puts Lim out of his misery with a win here.

Projected Winner: x-Matthews.

*51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores. Barton has the money and he has the message. Say goodbye to one of my least favorite people in the legislature.

Projected Winner: x-Barton.

*52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland. He should stick with Ultimate Fighting as VanOrman should pick this one up for the Ds.

Projected Winner: x-VanOrman.

*54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years thanks largely to an influx of California retirees. Stiegler lost by less than a thousand votes when this was an open seat in 2004. I think this is the year the Ds break through and win their first state legislative race east of the Cascades since the 1960s.

Projected Winner: x-Stiegler.

Projected Holds (D or R):

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win. My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Projected Winner: Esquivel.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive. Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there. Olson, a former State Policeman, is popular in this district making it a likely hold.

Projected Winner: Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset. Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here. Still, this is an R district and thus more likely than not Sprenger holds.

Projected Winner: Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: This is one of my dark horse races this year. Gilliam is the favorite but Gilbert may well pull the upset.

Projected Winner: Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past. Cameron is vulnerable, especially to a good candidate such as Day. Interesting fact, Cameron runs the cafeteria that operates in the basement of the Oregon Capitol that I ate in probably three times a week during the 2005 session. Let’s just say, his food is much better than he is as a legislator but this is still a historically R-leaning district so he has the edge. This is one of a number of seats that could go blue on election night..

Projected Winner: Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc.) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy. She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though. I still think she pulls it out, barely.

Projected Winner: Berger.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Thompson likely has the edge here. If this seat falls, it will be a very long night for the Republicans.

Projected Winner: Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006. If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here. However, from all accounts Wiedner has the money and has run a very solid campaign so I think he holds this one.

Projected Winner: Wiedner.

*30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: This is the Republican’s only targeted seat and Duyck might have been a good candidate ten or even four years ago. Instead, I think that the longtime Washington County politician will fall short against Edwards, who ran a campaign fraught with problems, much of it self-inflicted, in 2006, and still won. Edwards should win far easier this time around.

Projected Winner: Edwards.

*39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: I’d love to be able to say that Forsberg will win this one but I think that Kennemer is well enough known he’ll barely hold on for the win.

Projected Winner: Kennemer.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This one is going to be very very close and as an open seat battle it can surely go either way. That being said, this is a historically R district and I think Huffman will pull it out.

Projected Winner: Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.

OR-Sen: Merk Pulls Away in New SUSA Poll, SSP Moves Race to Lean Democratic

SurveyUSA (10/25-26, likely voters, 10/11-12):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (46)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42 (41)

Dave Brownlow (C): 5 (7)

(MoE: ±3.9%)

That’s some very nice movement for Merk. Check out the broader trends:

With Merkley pulling ahead in poll after poll, SSP is changing our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic. Smith’s efforts to present a moderate profile have allowed him to survive in past elections, it increasingly seems like that won’t be enough this year, especially with Democratic voter registration numbers turning this state into a darker shade of blue.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 57-38 here according to the same poll.

Gore Rocks the Rose City for Merkley: My Reaction

Hey folks, I just got home from the fabulous Merkley/Gore event in Portland and wanted to write up my reactions. Besides finally meeting the lovely Sarah Lane in person, it was a great time and certainly worth reporting on!

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://loadedorygun.net/showDi…

I was not smart enough to bring a camera, unfortunately, so I can’t post any of my pictures but it was a fun event. About a thousand showed up and we had really great fun, especially when we discovered that the metal bleachers a lot of us were sitting on could be stomped on to make lots of noise. I was in the front row on one side of the stack about a third of the way back, so I had a great view!

Below is my review of the speakers who were part of this great event:

Governor Kulongoski: I love Ted, I really really do, and I really wish I saw the fire in his belly more often than occasions like tonight. He did a good job warming up the crowd and MCing the first part of the evening.

Rep. Earl Blumenauer (OR-3): What can I say, I love Earl. He would make a great transportation secretary in an Obama administration, I’m just saying.

Rep. David Wu (OR-1): Except for an odd little bit about 9/11, he was great! He got some audience callbacks going on Obama/Merkley/Schrader’s names.

Brad Avakian (Labor Commissioner): I love this guy. He kept slipping the name “Jeff Merkley” randomly into his speech, and we went nuts whenever he said it.

Ben Westlund (State Treasurer Candidate/State Senator): Proof that Republicans can see the light and become Ds. I wish he’d had a bit more time because if he gets going he can be a great speaker.

John Kroger (AG to be): Listening to him, you can really tell why he was such a good litigator.

Then they lowered the lights and played this little video (a new Merkley ad):

Jeff Merkley (next US Senator): He was his usual awesome self. Did a great job both laying out his image but also clarifying why Smith’s time had passed. That led us to the main attraction of the evening…

Al Gore: WOW! He really would have been a great President if only given the chance. He was on target all night, even when interrupted early on by a 9/11 conspiracy nut (to which the crowd chanted “Merkley, Merkley, Merkley” to drown out the noise of the guy on the megaphone). Some memorable lines:

There’s a single common thread that runs through all these crises. Our ridiculous, absurd dependence on dirty, expensive, carbon-based fuel. That’s the common thread

This is one of those moments in history when one era is ending and another era is beginning. And you can almost hear the hinges creaking as that door opens up

Gore closed with perhaps his most powerful line of the night:

Do you want somebody who’s 10 percent of the time there (Smith)? Or do you want somebody who’s committed, heart and soul?

After this I feel fired up and ready to go, 11 days to a new America, let’s make it happen!

Let me know what you think.

OR-Sen: Nice Lead for Merk

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/14-15, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 41 (40)

Other 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Yesterday’s Rasmussen poll showing a tie in the Oregon Senate race gave the blogosphere some pause (as well it should, as this one is by no means over). Research 2000 gives us a bit of very good news, though, and their 6-point spread is more in line with Pollster’s composite of 45-41.

This poll shows a sizable chunk (6%) going to “Other,” which I assume mostly means Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow (who has polled around 7% when specifically named in SurveyUSA polls). (The crosstabs indicate that the biggest support for “Other” is coming from the Independent column, though, not from Republicans, so right-wing GOPers may be staying more loyal to Smith than I’d previously assumed.)

Another interesting bit in the crosstabs: Smith’s favorables/unfavorables are currently at 40%/47%: not as bad for him as they’ve been in Dem internals, but still not the kind of numbers that, y’know, lead to someone getting reelected.

A look at the 2008 Senate races, mid-October edition

With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it’s time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I’ll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain’t guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.

This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous September diary to see what things have changed since my last update. Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Note: The RNC looks to be getting into the Senate races to prop up some of their candidates and keep Democrats from getting to 60 Senate seats. If they decide to end up dropping a moneybomb into a particular race, then that can quickly change the dynamics I’ve written up below.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising. Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%. Move along. Nothing to see here. This is about as lopsided as you’re gonna get, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R). Outside groups like the Club for Growth had been pouring money into this state attacking Udall, and the polling had shown the race getting a bit closer. But more recently, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead. Pearce has not gotten above 41% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time. The NRSC cancelled their TV advertising in this state last month, leaving Pearce and the 527s to fend for themselves. Udall also still has a massive cash on hand advantage over Pearce.

3. Colorado (4): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin. He’ll face off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R). Schaffer had previously lost the GOP primary for that Senate seat back in 2004 to Pete Coors. Schaffer has been known for his close ties to Jack Abramoff and human rights abuses on the Marianas Islands. Right-wing groups had been attacking Udall with ridiculously false ads, which hurt his numbers, but recently the polls are showing Udall slowly but surely increasing his lead over Schaffer. This has caused Schaffer’s campaign manager to start attacking the pollsters when their numbers are unfavorable to Schaffer. That’s not a sign of a winning campaign. To make things worse for Schaffer, those right-wing groups like Freedom’s Watch have now pulled out of the Colorado Senate race.

4. New Hampshire (3): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002 along with some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day for which several GOP operatives went to prison, has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008. General rule of thumb: any incumbent polling under 50% in an election poll is in trouble. Add to that, the fact New Hampshire strongly went blue in 2006 all over the place, kicking out both Republican Congressmen and flipping over 80 seats in the state House, giving Democrats control of both state legislature for the first time since 1910, and Sununu has to be considered the most endangered incumbent. But he won’t go down easily, and the polls are starting to tighten a bit. Sununu also still has a significant cash on hand advantage. That money will probably make this race closer, but given how much New Hampshire has changed, I’m not sure how much that money advantage will help Sununu.

5. North Carolina (5): Amazing. The polls are showing a complete reversal of fortune starting in August. Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling. This, as Obama’s numbers similarly are growing in North Carolina. The DSCC’s ads against Dole have been quite effective in framing a theme of ineffectiveness about Dole. You even have Republican insiders say Dole is “virtually certain” to lose. This has caused Dole to throw the kitchen sink in negative attack ads against Hagan. Interesting fact, Hagan is the niece of the late Lawton Chiles, the longtime Senator and Governor of Florida, who came from behind to win re-election to the governorship in 1994 by defeating Jeb Bush.

6. Oregon (7): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R). Smith seems worried, as his commercials have him embracing Barack Obama and John Kerry and Ted Kennedy and Ron Wyden (Oregon’s Democratic Senator) and fighting Bush! Then, he turned from trying to prop up his own record to smearing Merkley with a misleading ad implying that Merkley is pro-rapist. Stay classy, Gordon. (It of course misrepresents what actually happened, and when it was introduced as a stand-alone bill, Merkley of course voted for the tougher penalties.) Smith trying to tie himself to Democratic politicians has gotten so ridiculous that the DSCC has stepped in with a TV ad mocking Smith for doing so, and showing his real record. This is probably because the polls now show Merkley pulling into a nice lead over Smith. In an interesting twist, Smith is actually a cousin of the two Udalls running for Senate.

7. Minnesota (8): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election. Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod. The recent polling has been friendlier to Al, with every poll taken in October now showing Al Franken in the lead, as Coleman’s own numbers keep falling. Much of the fall seems to come from the impact of Independence Party (not to be confused with Alaska’s secessionist version) candidate Dean Barkley (who was appointed to the Senate when Wellstone died), who is pulling in a significant chunk of the vote. And while Franken’s numbers have also fallen with some of his support going to Barkley, it seems that Coleman is losing even more support. There’s also yet another story about Coleman getting lots of free stuff from yet another big GOP donor, which led to a bizarre press conference with Coleman’s aide repeateding the same rote denial sentence for three minutes straight. In what seems like a McCain-like campaign stunt, Coleman has also just suspended all negative ads coming from his campaign, and is urging Franken to do the same. Of course, the NRSC isn’t stopping its negative ads against Franken.

8. Alaska (6): 84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) is seeking a sixth term, but he has been indicted on 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. Democrats got their top choice when Anchorage mayor Mark Begich entered the race. His father Nick Begich was a former Congressman, who was killed in a plane crash along with House Majority Leader Hale Boggs (D-LA) in 1972. Now while the polls had already shown Begich leading Stevens before the indictment, Stevens was still able to easily win his primary at the end of August, and combined with McCain’s Sarah Palin pick, the polls have suddenly gotten much friendlier to Stevens, and I don’t think it was from his primary win over some no-name challengers. And to complicate matters, the federal prosecutor was somehow so incompetent that key pieces of evidence against Stevens were thrown out, greatly increasing Stevens’ chances of getting off scot free. Non-partisan polling now shows Begich only up by 2 or 3 points, with Rasmussen actually showing Stevens having regained a slim lead. Still, the incumbent Stevens is under the 50% mark.

9. Georgia (NR): Former state representative Jim Martin, the 2006 Democratic Lt. Gov. nominee, thankfully won the Democratic primary over DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones (see previous update as to why Jones would’ve been a horrible candidate). Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin. Early voting and African-American turnout may make a difference in this race, as well as the presence of the Libertarian Senate candidate, given that Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr is from Georgia, and will likely shave off some points from Chambliss’s right flank. Martin, however, does not have much cash on hand. Good news is the DSCC is going to be helping him out with TV ads against Chambliss. Remember, Chambliss ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.

10. Kentucky (11): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats. Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million. In just the last month, the polls have suddenly shown Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell. The DSCC has responded by coming in to Lunsford’s aid also.

11. Mississippi-B (9): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01. That’s the seat that Travis Childers (D) won in May. That has to be a shot in the arm for former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D), though Wicker has shown himself to be a prolific fundraiser. The latest polls still show this to be a pretty tight race, with Wicker slightly up but still under the 50% mark. It may all come down to the African-American turnout in this state. The 2004 exit polls showed they made up 34% of the electorate. So if black turnout increases, that should benefit Musgrove. And because this is technically a special election (to fill out the remainder of Lott’s term), there will be no party identification on the ballot in November. That can actually work to our benefit in a state like Mississippi. The GOP is worried about this race, as Governor Haley Barbour (R) tried to bury the race at the bottom of the ballot, even after the local county district races. The problem is that Mississippi election law clearly states that races for national office are supposed to be at the top of the list. This went all the way to the Mississippi Supreme Court, which asked Barbour nicely to follow the law, which he actually did!

Tier II

I decided, for the sake of my own sanity, not to try to rank the Tier II and III races. These are given in alphabetical order, by state.

Maine: Rep. Tom Allen (D) is running to challenge Susan Collins (R). But he just hasn’t seemed to be able to gain much traction. Collins has worked hard to craft her moderate credentials. The most recent polls still have Collins at about a double-digit lead over Allen.

Texas: Netroots Democrats got the challenger they wanted to face John Cornyn (R). State rep. and Texas National Guard Lt. Col. Rick Noriega (D) served in Afghanistan after 9/11, and was chosen to coordinate relief efforts in Houston after Hurricane Katrina. The few polls on this race (Rasmussen seems to be the only one polling it) show Cornyn slipping a little bit recently, though he’s still at the 50% mark. The big problem for Noriega is still fundraising for a huge state like Texas, though an appearance from Bill Clinton should help.

Tier III

Idaho: With Larry Craig (R) retiring after his airport bathroom… ah… incident, it’s looking like a rematch between Lt. Governor Jim Risch (R) and former Congressman Larry LaRocco (D), who lost the 2006 Lt. Gov. race to Risch by a sizable 58%-39% margin. The latest polls are not kind to LaRocco. At this point, wild card independent rancher Rex Rammell won’t be anywhere near enough to help out LaRocco.

Kansas: Pat Roberts (R) is up against former Congressman Jim Slattery. There had been high hopes for Slattery, but the polls have not been kind to him. This is about to fall into safe territory, even with Slattery’s innovative new ad.

Louisiana (10): Mary Landrieu (D) was considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent in 2008. But the NRSC just pulled out of this race, leaving turncoat John Neely Kennedy (R, no relation to the Kennedy family in Massachusetts) to fend for himself. The sparse polling shows Landrieu still holding a sizable lead. The Republican tilt of the state is the only thing keeping this race from falling even further into safe territory.

Nebraska: With Chuck Hagel (R) retiring, former governor Mike Johanns (R) quit his job as Bush’s Agriculture Secretary to run for this seat. The netroots were thrilled when rancher and history professor Scott Kleeb (D) threw his hat in the ring. While Kleeb lost the NE-03 House race in 2006, that district is the most Republican in Nebraska, and Kleeb got a higher-than-expected 45% of the vote. That’s had a lot of people thinking he would actually win in the other two districts, and thus a statewide race. Of course, that didn’t take into account how he’d be running against the former governor. The last two Rasmussen polls show Kleeb has gained ground, but that means he’s only down by 14 points instead of being down by over 25 points.

Oklahoma: James Inhofe (R) is being challenged by state senator and netroots favorite Andrew Rice (D), who lost his brother in the 9/11 attacks. They could not be farther apart when it comes to energy and environmental issues. The latest polls show Rice has improved his numbers a bit. Still, losing by 13 points instead of losing by over 20 points is still a loss, even if Rice almost matched Inhofe in Q3 fundraising.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my personal rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 20 days to go. These are my picks, and I’m sticking with them… until my next update, at least.

Feel free to rip me apart in the comments, telling me I don’t know what the hell I’m talking about, how could I possibly put a certain race in Tier II or III when it’s so obviously a top tier race, why I’m being too optimistic in some seat, etc. Have at it. 🙂

OR-Sen: Tied Game

Rasmussen (10/14, likely voters, 9/15 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 47 (45)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

There seems to be a lot of preemptive celebrating of a pickup of this seat, but Rasmussen’s newest poll indicates that Gordon Smith isn’t going to go quietly into the night. It’s a tied race, although that’s actually an improvement from last month, where Smith had a 1-pt. lead.

Rasmussen has tended to be a litle more favorable to Smith than other pollsters recently. Part of that may be that they don’t account for Constitution Party candidate ~~Jeff~~ Dave Brownlow, who vacuumed up 7% of the vote in SurveyUSA polls. Looks like one of the big questions, come election day, will be how many hard-right rural voters come home to Gordo (whom they tend to view as an effete RINO, although their dissatisfaction is more likely to be more from a nativist Paulist angle than a theocon angle) instead of registering the protest vote.