Tag: OR-Sen

When we began the cycle, SSP rated just four Dem-held Senate seats as potentially competitive, and none worse than “Lean D.” (And when Arlen Specter switched parties, his race started over at Likely D.) Now, we have ten blue seats up on the big board, with at least eight in serious jeopardy and only one (CT) trending our way.

The GOP has done a tremendous job expanding the playing field, though of course they’ve also benefitted from some retirements which they can’t exactly take responsibility for – though if they want credit for Evan Bayh being a total d-bag, I’m happy to give it to them. But my real question is, can they expand the playing field even further? Sadly, I think it’s possible. Let’s take a look at the races which SSP currently has slotted in our “Races to Watch” category:

• Hawaii: This seat has been on the small chance that outgoing Republican Gov. Linda Lingle could challenge octogenarian Dan Inouye. She hasn’t taken any steps toward making the race, but she hasn’t ruled it out, either. Like most incumbent governors, though, Lingle is not as popular these days as she once was – a recent Mason-Dixon poll pegged her with 38-31 favorables. (An R2K survey from June had her at 51-43, down slightly from 53-41 in Dec. 2008.) Still, Lingle would make a strong challenger to Inouye, and could even inspire him to step down. Lingle is only 56, though, and may be waiting until 2012, when Hawaii’s other 85-year-old senator, Dan Akaka, may retire. But native son Barack Obama will be on the ballot that year, and the wind is at the GOP’s back now.
• New York (B): Kirsten Gillibrand had been on the list because of the (now very unlikely) possibility that former Gov. George Pataki could challenge her. Pataki seems to prefer deluding himself into a presidential run, but even if the great Hungarian-American hope won’t make a go of it for the GOP, I’m feeling pretty mistrustful these days. Gillibrand is the opposite of Martha Coakley – she works her ass off. But could a potentially damaging primary against Harold Ford give some zillionaire Republican opening? With New York’s extremely late primary date, I wouldn’t want to rule it out. Still, unless Pataki has a change of heart, the GOP doesn’t even have a second-tier candidate here.
• Washington: Patty Murray has been blessed by the lack of a strong challenger so far, though the GOP did recently get an upgrade here in the form of state Sen. Don Benton. As we noted in our recent rating change on this race, however, two much heavier-weight contenders may be reconsidering their earlier decisions not to get involved: Rep. Dave Reichert and two-time gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Neither seem likely to make a move, but if either jumps in, it’s showtime.
• Wisconsin: Former Gov. Tommy Thompson has been playing footsie here for some time now, but that’s not the only reason this seat is on our watch list. The quirky Russ Feingold has the potential to make this race a lot more interesting than we’d like. Though he won by twelve points in 2004, in 1998 (while observing some self-inflicted spending limits), Feingold eked out just a two-point win in what was otherwise a good Dem year. Wisconsin is a lot less blue than New York, and even a fairly anonymous GOPer could cause trouble here. It’s hard to get a read on Feingold’s favorables these days, since polling is scarce – they’re ugh if you want to believe Rasmussen, and pretty good if you don’t. Still, this race makes me nervous, especially since the state went for John Kerry by just four tenths of a percentage point – and Al Gore by just two tenths.

Fortunately, the rest of the list looks a lot better. Unfortunately, it’s really short:

• Maryland: Thankfully, the recent rumors that Barbara Mikulski might retire turned out to bogus. And just as thankfully, the GOP has no one to tap here (which is why they are pinning their hopes on retread Bob Ehrlich in the gubernatorial race). Dems will have lots of strong candidates ready to go whenever Mikulski decides to call it quits.
• New York (A): If Chuck Schumer winds up in anything remotely resembling a competitive race, just start drinking now.
• Oregon: The Republicans mercifully have no bench here. Rep. Greg Walden, the state lone GOP House member, already said no to a race for the open governor’s mansion. I can’t imagine John Cornyn could get him into a race against Ron Wyden, and I don’t want to.
• Vermont: Outgoing GOP Gov. Jim Douglas could theoretically force something of a contest with Pat Leahy. But a guy who doesn’t want to run for re-election as governor probably isn’t any more interested in taking on an incumbent in an otherwise very blue state – we hope.

Just to be sure, I’m not saying I think it’s likely the GOP can really expand the playing field – just that it’s possible. Already, though, the Republicans have done something pretty impressive: They’ve put themselves in a position where it’s even possible to imagine they could retake control of the Senate this fall. Given that Democrats held 60 seats for most of 2009 and still hold 59 today (as well as having the Vice Presidential buffer), that’s a chilling thought.

So this is as good a time as any to ask: How many Senate seats do you think the GOP will pick up in November?

A whopping eight months since my last Senate roundup, I figured it was high time to survey the landscape again. Overall, things have gotten significantly better for the Republicans in the last year, though not nearly as overwhelmingly so as the drama-prone national media might have you believe.

A continued Democratic majority in the Senate is all but assured after November (and is still quite likely in the House as well). The probable range, IMO, is a Democratic caucus in the 112th Senate of between 54 seats at the low end and 58 seats at the high end.

Read a race-by-race analysis (with pretty maps) below the fold…

This is the playing field in 2010: Democratic open seats in North Dakota, Connecticut, and Delaware; Republican open seats in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Kansas. And here is my (early) results projection:

I am fairly certain of Republican pickups in North Dakota, Arkansas, and Nevada at this time, while the true tossup races for now are in Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, Delaware, and New Hampshire. The Democrats remain very slight favorites to hold Illinois and Pennsylvania, and the Republicans retain edges in Florida, Kentucky, and North Carolina.

As always, seats are ranked by likelihood of flipping:

1. North Dakota (open) – Byron Dorgan (D) retiring after 3 terms

Outlook: Very Likely Republican pickup

Dorgan’s retirement is indeed a huge blow to the Democrats, though perhaps canceled out by Dodd’s bowing out in Connecticut. Gov. John Hoeven (R) is in and will almost certainly be the junior Senator from North Dakota.

2. Arkansas – Blanche Lincoln (D) seeking third term

Outlook: Likely Republican pickup

Lincoln’s numbers are getting uglier against all opponents (the best she does is an eight-point deficit) and show no signs of recovering. Barring an eleventh-hour miracle, her Senate career is over, it seems.

3. Nevada – Harry Reid (D) seeking fifth term

Outlook: Leans Republican pickup

Reid has such a fundraising advantage and some time left to up his approval ratings, but few longtime incumbents recover from these dismal numbers. Many Democrats are probably quietly hoping that Reid “pulls a Dodd” in the next few months.

4. Colorado – Michael Bennet (D) seeking full term

Outlook: Tossup

Bennet faces a tough challenge in the Democratic primary from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, and neither candidate seems secure against ex-Lt. Gov. Jane Norton or any of the other Republican prospects. The Democrats definitely have a good chance to hold this seat, with neither candidate carrying much prior baggage, but I sense that this race will go however the national climate goes, and at this moment, that means it will go to the GOP.

5. Delaware (open) – Ted Kaufman (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Tossup

I know that most polls have shown longtime Rep. Mike Castle (R) leading state Attorney General Beau Biden (D), but I for one am fairly convinced this race will tighten and the trends go Biden’s way once he declares and the state’s Democrats start “coming home.” Interestingly, Castle will be 71 years old on election day, to Biden’s 41, so there will likely be a noticeable contrast in tone and style between these two highly familiar candidates.

6. Missouri (open) – Kit Bond (R) retiring after four terms

Outlook: Tossup

Polls here have been close but consistent, with Secretary of State Robin Carnahan (D) barely ahead of Rep. Roy Blunt (R), always within the margin of error. Still, considering the GOP-friendly trends elsewhere during the last several months, this seems a promising sign for the Show Me State Democrats. For now, this is the Dems’ best opportunity for a pickup.

6. Ohio (open) – George Voinovich (R) retiring after two terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Even with nationwide Republican advances of late, former Rep. Rob Portman (R) has never built a convincing lead against either Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher (D) or Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner (D). Fisher is favored to win the primary, and at the point I expect the race to become a tossup. If the election were today, Portman would win.

7. New Hampshire (open) – Judd Gregg (R) retiring after three terms

Outlook: Tossup / Leans Republican hold

Former state Attorney General Kelly Ayotte (R) has a slight lead over Rep. Paul Hodes (D) — grain-of-salt-worthy pollster ARG has her ahead 43-36, hardly a game-ending advantage. Like Ohio, Hodes should close the gap over the spring and summer, and if he doesn’t, we should be worried.

8. Pennsylvania – Arlen Specter (D) seeking sixth term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

Specter is in for a close fight (if he makes it to the general election) against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R), the hardline conservative who nearly unseated him in the GOP primary back in 2004. In the meantime, Rep. Joe Sestak is giving Specter reason to watch his left flank. But Specter has been careful to compile a fairly progressive record since switching parties last spring, and my own prediction is that this gives him a clear edge for the nomination. At that point, disaffected Democrats and moderate-minded Independents will gradually line up behind the incumbent in big enough numbers to carry him to victory over Toomey, especially if the winds shift back to the Dems over the summer.

9. Illinois (open) – Roland Burris (D) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Democratic hold

The polls have been unclear about who has the advantage in a race between Republican Rep. Mark Kirk and Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, while (due to name recognition) Kirk polls well ahead of lesser-known Dems David Hoffman and Cheryle Jackson. Considering the state’s recent history, it’s hard to imagine Kirk winning on any but an exceptionally fortunate night for the GOP.

10. Florida (open) – George LeMieux (R) retiring after partial term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

Gov. Charlie Crist has long been the favorite for this seat in a general election, as his cross-partisan popularity remains high, but his biggest problem will be winning the GOP primary against conservative former state House Speaker Marco Rubio. If Rubio beats Crist, as many now expect (though his momentum could always stall), expect a competitive and expensive race between Rubio and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

11. North Carolina – Richard Burr (R) seeking second term

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

I’ve been surprised by the sporadic polling in this race. Burr faces a reputable challenger in Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D), even if this is a Southern state in a GOP-leaning election cycle. Burr is far from universally popular or even universally recognized, but for now the DSCC clearly has to prioritize defense.

12. Kentucky (open) – Jim Bunning (R) retiring after 2 terms

Outlook: Leans Republican hold

The Democratic primary between Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo and state Attorney General Jack Conway has been nasty, while “small government conservative” Rand Paul has by several accounts taken the upper hand in the GOP primary against Secretary of State Trey Grayson, the establishment choice. Considering Kentucky’s traditional balance of social conservatism with economic liberalism, Paul would seem an unorthodox general election choice, but polls show he would do well against the Democrats. Definitely a primary to watch, even if either Republican is clearly favored in November.

Just below competitive:

– California for the Democrats (Boxer clearly ahead of Carly Fiorina, but not quite out of the woods)

– Gillibrand (New York B) for the Democrats (against anyone but Rep. Peter King, who might keep the race competitive, Gillibrand should win easily, assuming she wins the primary)

– Louisiana for the Republicans (Vitter leads Rep. Charlie Melancon, but his personal issues make it hard for me to rate him as “safe”)

The Democrats should be fine in Connecticut (Blumenthal trouncing Simmons/McMahon/Schiff), as should the Republicans in Kansas (either Tiahrt or Moran). Meanwhile, Republican incumbents seem solid (in the general election, at least) in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Iowa, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Utah. Democratic incumbents should win without trouble in Hawaii, Indiana, Maryland, New York (Schumer), Oregon, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

It’s been almost a year since Election Day 2008, but some of our ’08 champs could still use a little help.  Just sayin’.

As of September 30, 2009:

Democrat	Cash on Hand	Debt	Amount in the Red	Where to Contribute
Al Franken	$242,128	$450,859	$208,731	Contribute to Al
Jeff Merkley	$137,221	$271,589	$134,368	Contribute to Jeff

I’m not saying there aren’t plenty of 2010 candidates that need our help.  (There are!  Please help!)  I’m just saying that helping our previous progressive winners to close their books and retire their debts could encourage other Democrats currently running to follow in more progressive footsteps, knowing we have their backs.

I’ll leave you with a few reasons to be very, very proud of Senator Al Franken’s first months as a U.S. Senator (and very, very motivated to help retire his campaign debt):

And a dash of Senator Merkley for good measure:

• FL-Sen: Ileana Ros-Lehtinen says she won’t endorse in the GOP Senate primary or in the general election, out of deference to Kendrick Meek. Says IRL: “Kendrick was a gentleman and I’m a lady back to him,” because he didn’t lift a finger to help Annette Taddeo last year, “despite all the nasty bloggers egging him on.” Next time, we’ll just have to egg harder. (D)

Meanwhile, in the contest purely in Charlie Crist‘s mind over who to appoint to replace Mel Martinez, Crist will reportedly name someone by week’s end from his not-so-short list of eight or so names.

• OR-Sen: John Frohnmayer, the former head of the National Endowment for the Arts under Bush I, was reportedly considering a bid for the Senate against Ron Wyden, but has now decided against it. (You may remember Frohnmayer had tried running as an Indie in the 2006 Smith/Merkley Senate race, but decided against that too.) Interestingly, the story makes it completely unclear whether he was planning to run as a Democrat or an Independent (probably not as a Republican, despite that he’s from one of the state’s brand-name GOP families, considering that the once-dominant moderates have been routed from the state party), but it sounded like he’d be going after the usually-liberal Wyden from the left, as he’d been reaching out to Democratic activists upset over Wyden’s foot-dragging on health care reform. No GOPer has stepped forward to take on Wyden from the right.

• NJ-Gov: One more wheel popped off the suddenly overloaded Chris Christie bus: the woman who allegedly received the undisclosed loan from Christie while working for him has resigned. Michele Brown was the acting first assistant U.S. Attorney for New Jersey, but she quit yesterday, saying she didn’t want to be a distraction for the campaign.

• NY-Gov: Politico’s Alex Isenstadt offers a rebuttal to the NYT’s speculations that Rudy Giuliani is prepping for a gubernatorial run. Close associates say that while he’s not saying no, he isn’t fundraising either, and that his bids for attention may have more to do with paying down campaign debts from his epic presidential fail.

• SC-Gov: Two Republican state Reps, Nathan Ballentine (known as a Mark Sanford ally) and Gerry Simrill met privately with Sanford to let him know that if he doesn’t step down, the GOP-held legislature will impeach him. (Sanford told them he’s staying.) Also, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer publicly called for Sanford to resign today (and, by the way, give him his job). Bauer said he’d drop his 2010 gubernatorial bid if he were to become governor, though.

• TX-Gov: It looks like there’ll be an alternative to Bush-backer Tom Schieffer and weirdo self-promoter Kinky Friedman in the Democratic primary after all: Hank Gilbert, a cattle rancher who lost the 2006 Agriculture Commissioner race (although he did do the best of any Dem statewide candidate that year), says he’ll run. Burnt Orange Report sounds very pleased. Meanwhile, Kay Bailey Hutchison faced down a truckload of pigs brought to one of her rallies by snout-wearing pro-Rick Perry, anti-pork activists. KBH is also looking to sell her mansion in McLean, Virginia, a tea leaf that a) she’s serious about bailing out of the Senate and b) she needs money.

• WI-Gov: There’s already a Republican internal poll from the Scott Walker camp done by the Tarrance Group, reflecting the new post-Jim Doyle configuration of the Wisconsin governor’s race. As one might expect from a Walker poll, he leads all comers, although the Milwaukee Co. Exec barely beats Milwaukee mayor and ex-Rep. Tom Barrett, 44-43. Walker posts bigger numbers over Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton, 48-40 and Rep. Ron Kind, 49-39, and an even-bigger number against GOP primary rival ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, 57-21. Barrett leads a Dem primary over Lawton and Kind, 39-25-19 (only Lawton has committed to the race so far, though).

• NYC-Mayor: The mayor’s race in New York seems to be in a holding pattern, with I/R incumbent Michael Bloomberg beating Democratic Comptroller William Thompson, 50-35, not much change from last month’s 47-37 spread. Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella 45-10 in the primary. Further down the ballot, it looks like Air America head Mark Green is poised for a comeback as Public Advocate (a job he held 1994-2001), with 38% in a 4-way Dem primary field.

• Ads: The DNC has launched a series of radio ads providing cover for 13 potentially vulnerable Dems, regarding their earlier stimulus and SCHIP votes: Berry, Himes, Donnelly, Kissell, Teague, Rodriguez, Perriello, Ross, Hill, Etheridge, Brad Miller, Pat Murphy, and Inslee. (OK, those last four don’t seem vulnerable at all, but whatever.) Also, a coalition of MoveOn, Americans United for Change, the Sierra Club, and the League of Conservation Voters launched TV spots against 5 Republicans over cap-and-trade: McCotter, Rehberg, Blunt, Wolf, and Cantor… and print ads against 2 Dems who also were ‘no’ votes: Jason Altmire in the Pittsburgh suburbs and Ann Kirkpatrick in rural Arizona.

What an asshole:

Lieberman, through his Reuniting Our Country PAC, gave Smith’s reelection bid $5,000 on Oct. 10, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. …

The same day he wrote a check to Smith, Lieberman’s ROC PAC gave $5,000 to Rep. Peter King, the Long Island Republican. In radio and TV appearances the final days of the campaign, Lieberman also frequently said that a Democratic majority of 60 votes, a filibuster-proof level, would be a bad thing.

I’m sure Lieberman gave as late as he did to try to hide the contributions – he did something similar with his shady petty cash accounts in 2006. Senate fundraising reports take forever to process – believe it or not, they are filed in hardcopy form and scanned in! It’s insane (and of course the GOP has blocked the ridiculously obvious reforms that would bring the Senate into the 20th century). It also means that final Senate reports are not publicly available until after the election, which totally defeats the point of campaign finance disclosure laws.

The Peter King donation would have been knowable, but few people were looking since King didn’t have competitive race. But for that reason – the closeness of the contest – the donation to El Gordo was the far bigger deal. It was disgusting enough that Joementia vocally supported Susan Collins and Norm Coleman (hell, if Franken loses, we can blame it on Lieberman). But cutting a check? That is truly a crime.

Like I said, what an asshole – not that we didn’t know that already.

This is the diary I had hoped to be able to write Wednesday, but with the closeness of the Smith-Merkley US Senate race was happy enough to write a diary talking about the reasons why Merkley would win, as he indeed has.  This diary serves as my review of the Oregon campaign, in what can, without a doubt, be described as the best cycle for Oregon Democrats and other progressive organizations in my lifetime.  All of our goals were met and we beat back every single bad ballot measure to boot.

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

The Election by the Numbers:

Note: These numbers are still not completely final due to the delay in counting ballots in some counties (which was due to the extra-long ballot necessitated by the high number of ballot measures among other factors).

Total Number of Oregonians Who Voted: 1.835 million or 84%.

Highest Turnout County by %: Wallowa-90%.

Lowest Turnout County by %: Umatilla-79%.

Number of Counties won by Kerry (who won by 5%): 8.

Number of Counties won by Obama: 12.

Obama’s Margin of Victory (which will go higher as the last urban ballots are counted): 16%.

Number of Oregon House Seats Won by the Democrats: 36 (+5).

Number of Oregon House Seats Won by the Republicans in Multnomah County: 0.

Number of Oregon House Seats Won by the Republicans in either the Eugene or Portland metro areas: 3, all in outer Portland suburbs.

Number of Ballot Measures Proposed by groups other than the legislature: 8.

Number of them that passed: 0 (All 4 of the Legislature’s measures passed).

How did I do?:

My final projections were pretty well spot on in most cases this year.  Here is my record:

Statewide and Congressional Campaigns: 100%, I correctly called every single one, although to be honest except for Smith/Merkley none were close.

Ballot Measures: 11/12 correct, I thought Measure 61 would pass but with less votes than Measure 57, and it actually failed outright.  I thought Measure 65 would be a lot closer than it was (it lost by about 2-1).

State Legislature: Senate 3/3, House 16/18.  I missed 2 house races, both of which were very close.  I projected that Adamson and Eberle would win and neither did.  Forsberg appears headed to a narrow defeat as well, which is unfortunately predicted.

Overall I think I did rather well this year as I nailed virtually every prediction and the ones I missed I didn’t miss by much.

Winners/Losers and Awards:

The final section of this diary is my favorite as I have a bit of fun with the election results and who won and lost as well as hand out some awards.

Big Winners/Losers:

Winner: Barack Obama.  Carrying the state by near-record margins, Obama led the Oregon Democrats to perhaps their best results ever.  Oh and this ad may have put Merkley over the top:

Loser: John McCain.  He never contested the state and it was apparent why.  McCain suffered perhaps the worst defeat ever for a major party candidate in the state, certainly the worst since the 1960s.

Winner: Jeff Merkley and the DSCC.  Jeff fought his way through a tough primary and won the day by unseating Republican Gordon Smith.  He did it, in no small part, thanks to the DSCC which poured more into this race than any other race in the country.

Loser: Gordon Smith, Freedom’s Watch and the NRSC.  Despite their best efforts to lie to Oregonians and mislead them into thinking Smith is a moderate, they failed this time.  At times it even seemed that the more Smith and his allies spent on negative ads, the worse they did.  This is not to say that Merkley and our side did not run negative ads because we did but theirs seemed to backfire.

Electoral Trends:

Winner: The 36 county strategy.  Although they didn’t win everywhere, Oregon Democrats surged to near record performances across the state.  They won their first state legislative seat east of the Cascades since the 1990s and basically eliminated the Republican party’s presence in Portland and Eugene.

Loser: Fake moderate Republicans.  From Gordon Smith to John Lim to Jim Torrey and beyond, Oregon Republicans who claimed to be moderates were roundly defeated by Democrats in virtually every case.  Proving that Oregonians can indeed see beyond the hype.

Interest Groups/Endorsers:

Winner: Oregon SEIU.  Perhaps the biggest winner in the state among all the unions was the Oregon SEIU as it helped ensure a majority favorable to their concerns and helped Defend Oregon defeat all the nasty ballot measures to boot.

Loser: Big Business.  The Employee Free Choice Act (Card Check Unionization) was passed in Oregon last year and despite the best efforts of big business to elect candidates who would oppose it, they failed.  Oregon is a pro-worker and pro-union state and shall remain so at least for now.

Winner: Barbara Roberts.  I so love our former Governor and honestly its hard not to.  Barbara still clearly has a lot of political power as all of the persons she endorsed and measures she took positions on went the way she hoped.

Loser: Kevin Mannix and Bill Sizemore.  They go a combined 0 for 7 in the ballot measures this year and only one of them, Measure 64, was even close.  Back to the drawing board you morans!

The Media:

Winner: Tim Hibbits.  Oregon’s top political analyst called the Senate race for Merkley Tuesday night and turned out, as usual, to be spot on.  In more than 900 races in which Hibbits has made a projection, he has been wrong exactly twice.

Loser: The Oregonian.  For endorsing Gordon Smith because Merkley’s win would give the Dems too much power.  Really, that’s a bad thing?  Well the streak continues as the Oregonian has not endorsed a winning Republican in a major race in a long time.

Awards:

Biggest Surprise in a major election: Measure 65’s stunning rejection by a 2-1 margin.  I thought it would fail but that it would be very close.  I’m happy to be wrong.

Best Victory Celebration: A crowd in Portland spontaneously breaking out into singing the national anthem after finding out Obama won.

Best political ad: Obama’s ad for Merkley (see above).

Worst Political ad: The Hot Dog ad by the NRSC:

Most disgusting political ad: Merkley supports rapists by Smith’s campaign:

Best victory speech: Merkley’s victory speech in the US Senate race, which I just saw delivered at Portland State.  Waiting a few extra days for it didn’t make it any less sweeter when Sen.-elect Merkley, flanked by his wife, his mother and current Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR), walked into the hall packed with lots of local supporters in a space designed for maybe 50-75 on a typical day.  Merkley spoke about the issues that matter both to Oregon and the nation and how he would be a new progressive voice for this state.

A key quote from Merkley’s speech:

Speaking at PSU’s Urban Center, Merkely said he couldn’t be “more honored” than to be serving with veteran Democrat Ron Wyden in the U.S. Senate and said that it is now “time for a problem solving, bi-partisan approach” to the many issues facing the country

Link to article about the victory: Jeff Merkley accepts his role as Oregon’s newest senator

Best-run campaign: Jeff Merkley (US Sen.).  One should not underestimate what Jeff and his team just accomplished as they unseated Gordon Smith, who many even in Democratic circles thought was untouchable.  Kudos to his staff and the army of supporters who carried the day.

Worst-run campaign: Mike Erickson (OR-5).  Not so much for how he ran the campaign as for how he reacted to all his personal scandals.  Whether it was taking his girlfriend to an abortion doctor and lying about it or taking a trip to Cuba supposedly for humanitarian reasons and instead partying the night away, Erickson in a textbook example of how NOT to run a campaign.  Yet he is utterly clueless about this and has, in fact, already been rumored to be running again in 2010.

Most-misleading campaign: Both sides of the Measure 64 campaign, the union payroll deduction.  Both sides stretched the truth more than a bit when it came to this proposed measure.  The yes folks overstated the danger of having public employee unions involved in politics while the no die claimed a far wider impact from this law than was likely (stifling the Oregon Food Bank among others supposedly).  Still, the good guys on the no side won, and I am very happy they did.  This criticism is not about their position but some of the ads they ran during this campaign.

Best-run campaign in a losing cause: Michele Eberle (OR House).  Came within inches of unseating a man with a long history in this state, Rep. Scott Brunn.  She may well win again if she runs in two years but given that this seat was not on anyone’s target list two years ago, the fact that she came this close says a lot.  Honorable mention to Jessica Adamson in Wilsonville as well.

Politician I am most happy to see lose: Gordon Smith.  After the misleading attack ads in what was without a doubt the most negative campaign in Oregon history, I really wanted to win this one.  We did, so I’m happy.

Let me know what you think.

With 80% of the vote in, Merkley has closed the gap to 1200 votes. Lots of ballots left in Multnomah (Portland).

Our friend Kari is projecting Merk to win by 85,000 55,000 votes.

Update: Merkley has now pulled ahead by 400 votes. Still only 62% of the vote counted in Multnomah.

Later Update: The Oregonian has called it for the Merkster! Congratulations to Media Mezcla for providing the engine that powered this stunning win!

Kari Chisholm, a great friend of SSP, estimates that Merkley will win the Oregon Senate race by about 36,000 votes — there are lots of Dem-friendly precincts still on the table here. Kari writes that this situation is pretty similar to the 2006 2002 gubernatorial race, when the late-counting precincts gave Kulongowski the win.

I was planning on posting a diary reviewing the results of Oregon’s elections but that will have to wait until tomorrow.  Due to the VERY close numbers in OR’s Senate race and the misconceptions out there, it is important that I correct some of them.  Please read this as your “chill out” diary.

As of this moment the official count shows Merkley trailing by about 8k votes with 1/3rd of the vote still out (Results at http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html).  However, most of the remaining votes are in deep blue counties like Multnomah, Lane and Benton.

To get into detail, these are the numbers we are looking at:

Multnomah County (Merkley winning 66-30) has only 47% in at this time.

Lane County (Merkley winning 58-38) has only 46% in at this time.

Benton County (Merkley winning 60-37) has only 74% in at this time.

By contrast, the largest Smith counties with votes still out are Jackson and Marion and there are both less votes there and the margins aren’t as big.  Merkley won BOTH Washington and Clackamas Counties but was offset a bit by huge margins for Smith in eastern OR (Smith won 3-1 in most of those counties where Obama did 10-15% better).

Oh and making me more sure of this result than anything else is that Tim Hibbits, Or’s preeminent political analyst, called the race for Jeff last night (http://www.kptv.com/index.html)

As to why this is taking so long, a few reasons:

1. It always does.  Vote by mail ballots take longer to process because they have to be verified AND counted at the county office, rather than merely counted.

2. Last minute turnout was huge.   It was 2-2.5 times what it was in 2004 and given that the first priority of elections officials is to verify ballot, counting had to wait.  That’s how we know that about 180k votes are still to be counted in Multnomah County.

3. The precinct calculation is BS.  Since we don’t have polling places, ballots are counted as they come in (although not before election day), NOT by precinct.  That is why the Oregonian shows votes still out there when no one else.  

So sit tight, calm down and know when all the votes are counted Jeff will be victorious.  Thanks to everyone for all your hard work in electing Jeff the next Senator from Oregon.

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.