Tag: Jim Gerlach

• FL-Sen: As the angling for a one-and-a-half-year fill-in for Mel Martinez’s Senate seat continues, there’s already been one prominent “no thanks,” from Jeb Bush (not that anyone would expect Charlie Crist to pick him, as there’s been a lot of Crist/Bush friction and Crist wouldn’t want to risk having a placeholder overshadow him). Meanwhile, a likelier pick, 70-year-old former Republican Rep. Clay Shaw (a Gold Coast moderate who served in the House from 1980 to his 2006 defeat) shot his hand up and said “pick me pick me!”

• IL-Sen: Chicago Urban League president (and former Rod Blagojevich spokeperson) Cheryle Jackson made her entry into the Democratic senatorial primary field official yesterday. However, the Illinois SEIU chapter, one of the state’s major unions, came out with an Alexi Giannoulias endorsement today, which, given their resources, moves him closer to having a lock on the nod. I’m wondering if they’re announcing in response to Jackson… or to Roland Burris, who keeps popping his head back up.

• KS-Sen: Not much change in the GOP Senate primary in Kansas since we last looked. SurveyUSA finds that Rep. Jerry Moran has a 38-32 lead over Rep. Todd Tiahrt, propelled along by a 78-13 edge in the state’s western portion. Moran led by 2 in June and 4 in April.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-16: It didn’t register much, at a time when all speculation focused on Rep. Carolyn Maloney, but several months ago Rep. Jose Serrano said he would consider a primary run against Kirsten Gillibrand. Yesterday he made clear that he wouldn’t get in the race (although he still didn’t sound very enthused about Gillibrand), which means that none of her former House colleagues are left planning a primary challenge.

• MN-Gov: Add one more second-tier Republican to the huge pile of prospects for the open Minnesota governor’s race: state Senator Mike Jungbauer, a religious rightist from exurban Anoka County, formally kicked off his campaign. He does already have one important endorsement in his corner; he was “called by God” to run.

• NJ-Gov: Today’s Quinnipiac poll has a slightly better showing for Jon Corzine, in line with last week’s R2K poll, though it’s far from time to start talking “comeback.” He cuts the lead to 9 points, 51-42, in a two-way poll of likely voters, down from 53-41 in July. More importantly, Corzine trails Chris Christie 46-40 in a three-way that includes independent Chris Daggett (who’s up to 7%). Campaign Diaries observes that the centrist Daggett (a former EPA regional administrator) is probably absorbing a lot of protest votes, keeping Democrats and moderate indies who hate Corzine from going over to Christie. If Corzine wins, he’ll owe Daggett a big ol’ “thank you.”

• NY-Gov The NYT reports on growing discomfort by various downballot electeds on the prospect of having David Paterson at the top of the ticket. Both Reps. Michael McMahon and Dan Maffei worry about the effect of Paterson’s low approvals spilling over into their own races. Not to worry: although it’s buried deep in the story, the Times says that powerful local Dems are pushing Paterson to stand down and make way for Andrew Cuomo — and that local bigwigs have been tugging at White House sleeves, hoping they’ll find a nice appointed position for Paterson soon.

• CA-10: The John Garamendi camp released an internal poll from Tulchin Research giving Garamendi a sizable edge in the upcoming special election: Garamendi is at 31, Mark DeSaulnier is at 21, Joan Buchanan is at 17, Anthony Woods is at 9, and Republican David Harmer is at 5. There’s a wrinkle with this poll, though (one that didn’t elude the DeSaulnier campaign): it’s a poll only of Democratic and decline-to-state voters, but the primary election is an all-party primary with one pool of votes (although under California law, the top Democrat and Republican will advance, not simply the top 2). In response to our inquiry, the Tulchin crew said that polling Republicans as well just wasn’t cost-effective, especially since there are six Republicans running and therefore there isn’t likely to be much party-line crossing.

In other CA-10 news, Garamendi got another bit of good news: he got the endorsement of both Bill Clinton and Al Gore (he was a deputy Secretary of Interior for part of the Clinton administration). However, a SurveyUSA that only tested favorables for the CA-10 candidates didn’t have good news for much of anyone: Garamendi is at 30/34, DeSaulnier is at 22/23, and Buchanan is at 16/25. Only up-and-comer Woods is in positive (if generally unknown) territory, at 14/13.

• CT-04: With presumptive GOP nominee state Senate minority leader John McKinney staying out, not one but two other GOPers got in the race against Democratic freshman Rep. Jim Himes. One was the party’s likely #2 choice, state Senator Dan Debicella; the other is Rob Merkle, a political novice but the wealthy owner of a financial services recruitment firm.

• PA-06: Maybe journalist Doug Pike won’t have the Dem primary to himself after all, now that Rep. Jim Gerlach is committed to the gubernatorial race. Bob Roggio, the little-known businessman who almost beat Gerlach in 2008, said he hasn’t “ruled it out.” Also, while there doesn’t seem to be anything tangible, there are indications that state Sen. Andy Dinniman, the Dems’ highest-profile elected official in the pivotal Chester County portion of the district, is “increasingly rumored to be seriously considering” the race.

• MO-Sen: This is actually starting to be a theme with Rep. Roy Blunt: he’s willing to go on the record as hating Medicare. An interview this weekend included the comments:  “We’ve had Medicare since 1965, and Medicare has never done anything to make people more healthy.” I think tens of millions of senior citizens might take exception to that.

• NC-Sen: SoS Elaine Marshall is “pretty seriously leaning toward” getting into the race against Richard Burr, according to strategist Thomas Mills in CQ (although with no mention of whether or not he was speaking on her behalf or just running his mouth). He says she doesn’t have a firm timeline, but will let us know in late summer or early fall.

• TX-Sen/Gov: When the tradmed actually refers to a conversation with a Senator as a “bizarre series of interviews,” you know something’s seriously gone awry. Kay Bailey Hutchison seemed to try to walk back her resignation announcement from yesterday when talking with the Houston Chronicle, but after some more probing, made it sound more like all she wanted was for Rick Perry to get out of the race. Because it’s her turn. Sounds exactly like something someone who’s leading in all the polls would do for her.

In the meantime, Rick Perry said he’d consider moving up the date of the special election to replace KBH, by way of mocking her resignation sort-of-decision, saying that there were too many important things going on in Washington. (Although I’m not sure Texas law would let him do so; it’s pretty clear about the election’s date.) Also, all this dissonance can only help Democratic Houston mayor Bill White in the special election, who got some good news from the FEC yesterday: they issued an advisory opinion saying he can go ahead and additional funds for the special election that technically doesn’t exist yet. (It’s kind of complex; he’s already raised $4 million in his regular 2012 Senate fund, but now he can raise additional money from the same maxed-out donors in the new fund.)

• CA-Gov: It’s not just Democratic governors who are taking a hit in approvals. Arnold Schwarzenegger is running at 28% approval and 59% disapproval in California, according to PPIC. (By contrast, Obama is at 65/27 in the state!)

• PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach is making coy reference to an internal poll that shows him losing the GOP primary to AG Tom Corbett, but with “the profile” to win. The poll says Corbett beats Gerlach (and Pat Meehan) 39-11-7 overall, but that Gerlach leads in the Philly area and that he wins when only biographical info is read. (For those not familiar with the concept, the “biographical info” poll question is the internal polling equivalent of a Hail Mary pass.)

• UT-Gov/Sen/02: Here’s one more name to take off the Open Seat Watch: Jim Matheson verified that he will run for re-election to his House seat, rather than roll the dice on a Senate bid or a run in the 2010 gubernatorial special election (despite having a conceivable shot against as-yet-to-be-promoted Gary Herbert or whatever other weirdo makes it out of the convention process).

• AK-AL: Nice to see that Rep. Don Young isn’t being forgotten, despite the gravitation of all of Alaska’s Democratic talent (ex-state Rep. Ethan Berkowitz, State Sen. Hollis French) toward the gubernatorial race. State Rep. Harry Crawford says he’s interested in the race, and has met with the DCCC in DC about it.

• CT-04: Here’s a bullet dodged for Democrats, and a miss for the NRCC, who’ve haven’t had too many targets decline them lately: state Senate minority leader John McKinney, a noted environment-minded moderate and son of former Rep. Stewart McKinney, who represented the area prior to Chris Shays, said he won’t run against freshman Rep. Jim Himes. The GOP may look to fellow state Sen. Dan Debicella instead.

• HI-01: Another bit of good news on the recruiting front: state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa has met in DC with the DCCC about the open seat being left behind by gubernatorial candidate Neil Abercrombie. She’d probably be our best bet at keeping ex-Rep. Ed Case from making a comeback.

• IL-07: The first Democratic candidate has filed for the open seat that Danny Davis is likely to leave behind. Darlena Williams-Burnett is the Cook County chief deputy recorder of deeds; she’s married to Chicago alderman Walter Burnett.

• MI-07: Although ex-Rep. Tim Walberg is committed to running to regain his seat from freshman Democrat Mark Schauer, it looks like he’ll have some competition in the primary and may not even be the establishment’s choice in the GOP primary. Brian Rooney, an attorney at the right-wing Thomas More Law Center in Ann Arbor, brother of Florida Rep. Tom Rooney, and grandson of Pittsburgh Steelers founder Art Rooney, has been talking to the NRCC about the race.

• MN-03: One more recruiting tidbit. This one sounds like it’s far from a sure thing, but state Sen. Terri Bonoff has said she’s “undecided” but taking a MN-03 race “under consideration.” (Bonoff lost the DFL endorsement to Ashwin Madia in MN-03 last year.)

• TX-32: I’m not sure why stories involving blimps are just inherently funny, but Rep. Pete Sessions got into a bit of a blimp-related brouhaha. The ardent foe of all things earmark got busted by Politico, of all places, for very slowly and quietly steering a $1.6 million earmark for blimp construction to an Illinois company with no track record of government contracting, let alone blimp making — but it did have one of Sessions’ former aides lobbying for it.

Pennsylvania, my home state, will see a lot of big races in 2010. We are electing a new Governor – electing new members of Congress from vacant seats, have a Senate election, and progressive Democrats need to win in the State House and Senate races (We have a very un-progressive Republican state Senate, the only Republican chamber left in the Northeast). It is CRITICAL that the netroots and the grassroots and all of the progressives come together and focus on PA…it's very important.

Please read on to learn more about our 2010 races!

Pennsylvania has been a swing state for some time now so what happens here is VERY IMPORTANT nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Democrats have both Senate seats for the first time since 1968 (okay, January 1969) thanks to the Specter Switcheroo.

Pat Toomey is Rick Santorum 2.0, and he MUST NOT become our new Senator. Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak MUST win.

Our Senate race is very important and has NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, especially since Arlen Specter is known throughout the country for his switch to the Democratic Party. If Senator Specter wins his primary, we must vigorously support his re-election, no matter what.  So that means no more of the Snarlin' Arlen comments!

The U.S. House

The House delegation has gone from 12-7 Republican to 11-8, with four Democratic pickups (The biggest Democratic sweep in ANY state in 2006- no other state had more than 3 pickups).  In 2008, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper won in PA-3 (the Erie district) and now we are at 12-7, a complete reversal of pre-2006.

We want to make sure Democrats continue to stay on a roll.

PA-15

My Congressional district of PA-15 is going to be one of the most important races in the country (to me, THE most important House race and a bellwether for the entire nation). Charlie Dent, Republican, has had a VERY easy time winning here despite a prO-bama majority. Mayor John Callahan of Bethlehem is running for the Democratic nomination.  We must make him Congressman. Plus, if you ask me, he's kinda cute (-:

 Mayor Callahan's Campaign Site (Very new)

PA-8

Jim Gerlach is running in the Republican primary for Governor and we have (so far) Doug Pike, who I don't know much about but will support if he is the Democrat.  I think this is VERY winnable.  If Gerlach loses, I'm not so sure he can get back into the race.  Curt Schroder is already running.  A Pike victory will mean A LOT on Election Day since it is expected the Republicans will narrowly hold onto this seat in the Philly suburbs.  It's an Obama district though.

Governor's Race

We also have to watch the Governor's race- most likely it will be between Jack Wagner and Tom Corbett.  Ed Rendell will not have very good approval ratings which will bode poorly for the Democrat but hopefully Jack Wagner (or Dan Onorato from Pittsburgh) will run a top-notch campaign and really narrow that gap in the last few weeks.  My mind says Corbett though.  Please let me wrong.

State Senate

We have a ridiculous 30-20 Republican majority in the State Senate and it keeps getting bigger by the day, so to turn it blue we'll need SIX MAGIC SEATS to take it back (I'm assuming Democrats had control of it at one point).

We will have 25 chances to win the Senate (half of it is up for election in 2010) and most of these will remain the same, however…judging from previous election results, I see these six Republican seats as the most vulnerable (Keeping in mind that they were all last up in 2006, a Democratic year):

SD 6 – held by Robert Tomlinson (R), last won by 53.4%

SD 10 – held by Chuck McIlhinney (R), won by a measly 51.5% against Democrat Chris Serpico

SD 12 – held by Stewart J. Greenleaf (R), won by 57.4%

SD 16 – held by Pat Browne (R), won by 54.2%

SD 24 – Bob Wonderling (R), won by 56.5%

SD 26 – Edwin Erickson (R), won by 52.2% (his challenger in '06 was Mike Farrell)

SD 34 – Jacob Corman (R), won by 56.0% (but Democrat Jon Eich only got 39.1%)

SD 44 – John Rafferty (R), won by 56.2%

SD 50 – Bob Robbins (R), won by 53.5% (challenger was Art Allen)

 The good news is that all of the Democratic seats will likely, barring any unusual events, be safe so we can focus on these nine seats, which are ripe for a takeover.

 State House

Democrats hold onto a 104-99 majority.  It's clearly not a safe majority.

All of the 201-or-some House seats are up and there are a lot of opportunities to pick off some of these Republicans, so let's go through the seats where the Republican won by less than 60%:

HD 15 – Jim Christiana, 51.5%

HD 26 – Tim Hennessy, 52.1%

HD 57 – Tim Krieger, 51.7%

HD 75 – Matt Gabler, 52.8%

HD 128 – Sam Rohrer, 52.2%

HD 142 – Frank Farry, 51.7%

HD 146 – Thomas Quigley, 53.4%

HD 187 – Gary Day, 52.3%

If we win all of these eight seats (a nice goal), and keep onto our close seats, we will have a 112-91, which will be a significant improvement.

Worst Case Scenario

If the Republicans win PA big, we will have:

U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (formerly the president of right-wing Club for Growth and you can just imagine those tax breaks for the rich)

Governor Tom Corbett replacing the fairly progressive Ed

A 30-20 Republican Senate (I sincerely doubt they'll win any Democratic seats)

A Republican State House (which will pass an anti-gay marriage amendment to the Constitution, at top of their to-do list when they retake the House)

The loss of Democrats Paul Kanjorski (he barely won last time around), Jason Altmire (represents a very conservative district), Chris Carney (representing an even more conservative district), freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Republican victories in the 6th and 15th, which will give the Republicans a pickup of FOUR seats…which would undo the results of 2006, and perhaps if Joe Sestak runs for the Senate and abandons his House seat they will have FIVE seat pickups.

So as you can see the stakes cannot be higher here in the Keystone State.

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters):

Dan Onorato (D): 16

Jack Wagner (D): 16

Tom Knox (D): 13

Undecided: 55

Tom Corbett (R): 38

Jim Gerlach (R): 15

Pat Meehan (R): 9

Undecided: 37

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Quinnipiac’s first look at the Pennsylvania governor’s race of 2010 finds that, well, people still haven’t decided on much of anything yet. AG Tom Corbett has a pretty solid edge in the GOP field (as the only statewide GOPer), and Rep. Jim Gerlach may be left wondering if he was safer staying in PA-06 all along. On the Democratic side, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner both poll at 16, leaving them way behind “Undecided,” who has a solid majority.

Given that few people have any idea who these guys are, Quinnipiac simply asks a Generic Democrat/Generic Republican question instead of a bunch of different head-to-head permutations. Hearteningly for Democrats, that race is a dead heat, with R beating D 38-37. One other interesting number: Gov. Ed Rendell, who’s termed-out, seems to have caught the same case of recession-itis that’s dragging down all the other governors in the northeast and Rust Belt: his approvals are down to 39-53, in the wake of Pennsylvania’s month without a budget, down from 54-37 from their last measurement in May.

One other thing to think about: former US Attorney Pat Meehan had, for a period of about half a day in May, looked like he was about to bail on the governor’s race and move over to the probably open seat in PA-07, where he used to be Delaware County DA. Meehan batted down that rumor, but with his paltry performance in today’s poll, and now with Rick Santorum (an ally of Meehan) urging him to give a second thought to running in the 7th, you’ve gotta wonder if Meehan is reconsidering.

RaceTracker wiki: PA-Gov

• FL-Sen: Although Rep. Corrine Brown, who’s expressed interest in running in the Democratic Senate primary, has been pretty inactive on the fundraising front, she did get at least one prominent donor to her Senate exploratory account: Rep. Donna Edwards, who gave her $1,000. (Edwards also gave to Rep. Kendrick Meek’s account on the same day — but only $250 to him.)

• KY-Sen: Jim Bunning finally released his fundraising numbers, and they’re still “lousy.” He raised $285K for the quarter, with $595K CoH, which is less than half of the amount raised by the guy who says he won’t run against Bunning in the primary, SoS Trey Grayson (who raised $603K). Both, of course, are dwarfed by Democratic AG Jack Conway, who raised $1.32 million for the quarter and is increasingly looking like the man to beat. (Conway’s primary rival, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, pulled in a lukewarm $303K.) Meanwhile, in another indication of Bunning’s dwindling power, lots of elected GOP officials seem willing to out themselves as Grayson supporters: Grayson got contributions from three state Reps., city councilors from Louisville and Lexington, and executives from three large counties.

• NH-Sen: One more indicator that there’s still going to be a contested GOP primary in New Hampshire: local political insider and long-time friend of AG Kelly Ayotte Mike Dennehy isn’t going to be working for Ayotte. He’s been working with businessman Fred Tausch on his anti-tax STEWARD organization since last fall, and will continue to do so.

• NC-Sen: Kenneth Lewis, a Durham corporate attorney who’s planning to run for the Democratic Senate nomination in 2010, made a big hire: Joe Trippi. It suggests, if nothing else, Lewis plans to spend a lot of money on the race, and maybe also that he’s interested in reaching out the netroots (although he may have some competition on that front, if he runs, from former state Sen. Cal Cunningham).

• NM-Gov: If ex-Rep. Heather Wilson doesn’t get in, the New Mexico GOP is left with a bunch of third-stringers for the governor’s race. Here’s a newly interested potential candidate, though, who’s at least interesting from a demographic perspective: Susana Martinez. She’s the DA of Dona Ana County, location of Las Cruces and New Mexico St. Univ., the state’s second-most populous county and one of its Democratic anchors. Running a Latina against an Anglo (likely Dem nominee Lt. Gov. Diane Denish) might also help the GOP peel off some ordinarily-Dem votes.

• NY-14: Roll Call previews the many possible Democratic replacements for Carolyn Maloney, if she follows through on her planned Senate race. On the Manhattan side of the East River, state Sen. Liz Krueger is at the top of the list. Younger up-and-comers, though, include city councilor Dan Garodnick, state Assemblyman Jonathan Bing (both of whom are Maloney allies and unlikely to run against each other), and city councilor Jessica Lappin. On the Queens side, there’s also city councilors Eric Gioia and Peter Vallone Jr. (son of the former council speaker), and Assemblyman Michael Gianaris. Karenna Gore Schiff (Al Gore’s daughter) has also been rumored, although she told TPM today she won’t run.

• PA-06: With Rep. Jim Gerlach gone, the primary opponents are descending on this open seat… but contrary to what I would have expected a few months ago, it’s happening on the GOP side. While state Rep. Curt Schroder got in, as expected, he didn’t clear the field: Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello also said he’s likely to get in. Also, Guy Ciarrocchi, Gerlach’s former chief of staff, is interested, and Chester County Commissioner Carol Aichele’s name has been floated, although she’s already exploring a Lt. Gov. race. On the Dem side, Doug Pike’s early fundraising dominance may have locked things down for him, although the Hill says potential heavyweight state Sen. Andy Dinniman is still “eyeing” the race, as well as Manan Trivedi (a former health care policy advisor to the Obama campaign).

• VA-05: One last fundraising tidbit, that apparently couldn’t fit in James’s fundraising wrap-up because it rounds off to $0. Ex-Rep. Virgil Goode raised sub-Roland Burris totals last quarter: $154. Not the kind of money that suggests a rematch against Rep. Tom Perriello.

• Demographics: Two interesting reads you’ll want to check out: one from Ruy Teixeira, on how the rise of the millennial generation, more “seculars,” and more Latinos all point to an imminent end to the “culture wars.” And also an important 538 piece from Nate Silver, where he somehow got his hands on polling data on uninsured voters broken down by CD, finding that — unlike voting against cap-and-trade, where their districts tend to be more carbon-reliant and voting against the measure might seem short-term rational — Blue Dogs are disproportionately from districts that are heavy on uninsured voters and voting for the bill would, if framed correctly, be a big boon for their districts’ voters. With the public option still hanging in the balance, if you’re represented by a Blue Dog (although, if you’re reading SSP, chances are that you aren’t), this would be a great piece to forward to them.

• CA-32: Congratulations to Judy Chu, who will be the newest member of the House Democrats. She defeated Republican Betty Chu in last night’s special election, by a margin of 62-33, with the balance going to Libertarian Chris Agrella. (It’s a bit of an underperformance in the district, where Obama won 68-30, so I’m wondering if the Chu/Chu confusion actually ate into her share a bit. Or, it could just be a highly unmotivated base on a day when nothing else was on the ballot.)

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer “that Jew” when he couldn’t think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as “this new minority judge.” Don’t confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who’s the one who thought you should “get shots” before going down to southeast Arkansas.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk — who’s had some past problems with the space-time continuum — has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he’s been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada’s other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can’t count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood’s political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won’t run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue’s job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let’s just say we should be glad she isn’t up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that’s the worst individual performance of anyone they’ve polled this year except for Roland Burris!

• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who’s running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can’t really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle’s tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn’t been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He’s joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that’s been linked to the teabagging movement) on their “Patients First Tour” in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit ‘eject,’ he’s starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he’ll announce his campaign plans for “statewide office,” without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor’s race. Does Ohio have a statewide “dogcatcher” position?

• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

The Allentown Morning Call has the scoop:

U.S. Rep. Jim Gerlach has alerted top officials at the National Republican Congressional Committee that he’ll run for governor next year in lieu of a reelection effort in Congress.

The decision is expected in an announcement Tuesday. It sets up a GOP primary battle for governor of Pennsylvania between the four-term suburban Philadelphia lawmaker and Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett and leaves the Republican Party facing a battle to retain a congressional seat that Gerlach has held since the district was drawn at the turn of the decade.

A “GOP source” is confirming the news with Roll Call. This will be a pretty hot open-seat battle; while the GOP does have some bench strength in this district, the ground has rapidly shifted from underneath them on the Presidential level. In 2000, Al Gore barely nosed Bush with 49% of the vote in this CD, while John Kerry bumped that margin up to 52-48 four years later. According to an SSP analysis of the results from last November, Barack Obama blew the door wide open, scoring a ridiculous 58-41 win over McCain while Gerlach won another term with a much narrower margin than anyone expected against an opponent with severe name recognition issues. It’s no wonder that Gerlach is pulling on the ripcord after so many election nights filled with heartburn.

The Democrats’ early recruit, former Philadelphia Inquirer editorial board member Doug Pike, has an early fundraising advantage over the field, having raked in a reported $500K in the second quarter and possessing a substantial amount of personal wealth to supplement that haul in the future… but whether or not that will scare off other potential Democratic candidates in this CD remains to be seen. Meanwhile, the GOP’s leading recruit, state Rep. Curt Schroder, only raised $20K during this exploratory phase of his campaign. Presumably he’ll kick things into gear now that he’s no longer fundraising for an officially-hypothetical race, but that’s still not an impressive way to christen one’s campaign.

UPDATE (David): This also sets up a Republican primary between Gerlach and AG Tom Corbett. Can Gerlach actually win against the more conservative Corbett, given how many moderates have left the PA GOP?

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-06 | PA-Gov

There was a brief Jim Gerlach-for-Senate boomlet in the weeks following Arlen Specter’s party switch, when establishment GOP figures suddenly realized that they were going to have the Specter vs. Pat Toomey battle in the general instead of the closed GOP primary and that they might want a more palatable alternative. That seems to have gradually dissipated over the intervening months (as seen by John Cornyn‘s recent campaign contribution to Toomey), and today Gerlach made it clear he won’t be running in the Senate primary:

“That is pretty much off the table,” Gerlach, in an interview, said of the idea of a Senate run, which has lingered as a possibility since U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party in late April.

Asked if he would definitely run either for the House or governor of Pennsylvania, Gerlach responded: “I think that would be safe to say.”

Gerlach says that he’ll decide next month whether to pursue the Governor’s race (where he already has an exploratory committee open, although he may have a difficult shot against AG Tom Corbett, compounded by splitting the Philly suburban vote with former US Attorney Pat Meehan) or run for re-election in increasingly blue PA-06.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen | PA-Gov | PA-06

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is still under a lot of pressure from inside the Beltway to move over from her preferred race (Governor) to the Senate race instead. Thing is, the pressure seems to be working (and the fact that Pat Quinn remains pretty popular also helps): she says she’s “seriously considering it” and will decide within “four to six weeks” whether to run for gov, senate, or another term as AG.

• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson is still treating Jim Bunning as undecided about running for a third term, despite the crotchety Bunning’s many protestations, Abe Simpson-style, that he ain’t dead yet. While saying that he has “no plans to run against him right now,” Grayson says he’d have a better answer to the question “after next month, when Bunning makes a decision….” Still, he says “I don’t suspect that (having to run against Bunning) would be a problem,” if Bunning stays in the GOP primary. The remarks were made at a poorly-attended (as in less than 50) Grayson fundraiser in Corbin.

• MO-Sen: Rep. Roy Blunt can’t catch a break. No sooner than professor Tom Schweich bailed out and former Treasurer Sarah Steelman’s message discipline came completely unglued, along comes yet another likely primary challenger: state Senator Chuck Purgason, who formed an exploratory committee. It sounds like he’ll be going at Blunt from the right (Purgason is known for his “country-western fashion sense and iron-clad fiscal conservatism,” and said we must “stop the ‘changing’ of America”).

• NC-Sen (pdf): Good polling news out of North Carolina, according to PPP: Generic Democrat leads Richard Burr, 41-38. (There’s still the little matter of nailing down a candidate, of course.) Only 29% overall (and 49% of Republicans) think he deserves another term, while 49% say give someone else a chance. Burr’s approval is 34/35, with a 31% “not sure,” which is still crazily high for a sitting senator.

• NH-Sen: Senatorial speculation for the GOP in the Granite State has turned to AG Kelly Ayotte. (AG is an appointed position in New Hampshire; Ayotte was appointed by ex-Gov. Craig Benson, but retained by John Lynch.) Still, everything seems to be on hold until fall, when the younger John Sununu is supposed to make known his senate intentions. Dean at Blue Hampshire observes ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (another possible Senate, or NH-02, candidate) getting a little testy about having to wait for Sununu Jr. to make up his mind (or for Sununu Sr. to make up Jr.’s mind).

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn Maloney keeps ratcheting up her attacks on Kirsten Gillibrand, focusing increasingly on character and credibility. She hit Gillibrand’s “evolving” stances and said “She’s, to my knowledge, never passed anything. She spends all her time fund-raising. I spend my time doing things.” Meanwhile, Gillibrand rolled out the endorsements of 52 of the 62 Democratic Party county chairs in New York. That seems huge, but only half the population of New York state is accounted for, as they have yet to endorse in New York, Kings, Queens, Bronx, Richmond, and Suffolk Counties.

• CA-Gov: Rep. John Campbell from CA-48 in Orange County endorsed Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner a few months ago, but he recently dropped that endorsement and then this week endorsed ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman instead. Campbell’s explanation is that when he first endorsed Poizner, Whitman wasn’t in the race yet and he had never met her. (This Campbell, of course, is not to be confused with ex-Rep. Tom Campbell, who’s the third wheel in the GOP gubernatorial primary.)

• LA-03, LA-Sen: GOP state Rep. Nickie Monica, who has recently met with officials at the NRCC, is telling his contacts that he’s planning on running against Democrat Charlie Melancon. Meanwhile, faced with the prospect of a strong challenge and the looming uncertainties of redistricting, Melancon is still giving a race against GOP Sen. David Vitter a “pretty hard” look, according to a “Democratic insider.” (J)

• NY-23: Republican state Senator Joe Griffo, who’s based outside the district in Rome but whose turf overlaps part of the 23rd, said he won’t run in the special election. For the Dems, veteran Danny Francis (who ran twice against McHugh in the 1990s) said he’ll seek the nomination. Dem state Senator Darrel Aubertine shot down speculation that he’d fielded a call from Barack Obama about the seat, although he did cop to talking to DCCC recruitment guru Steve Israel about it.

• OH-15: ’08 candidate/ex-state Sen. Steve Stivers says that he’ll make up his mind on a rematch against Mary Jo Kilroy by the 4th of July, but Ohio Republicans apparently feel very confident that he’ll jump into the race. (J)

• PA-06, PA-Gov: Rep. Jim Gerlach has set a deadline of “this summer” for deciding whether to jump into the 2010 governor’s race — although he certainly seems to be moving to do so, positioning himself message-wise as the only GOPer who’s dealt with fiscal issues in a legislature. In the meantime, GOP power brokers are getting antsy that Gerlach’s delay in announcing his plans are complicating their efforts to hold this D+4 seat (although GOP state Rep. Curt Schroder is already warming up in the bullpen, having opened an exploratory committee).

• Votes: The war supplemental passed the House 226-202 yesterday, with 32 Democrats and 5 Republicans breaking ranks. The GOPers fall under the ‘moderate’ umbrella: Cao, King, Kirk, Candace Miller, and John McHugh (for whom a ‘no’ vote would be awk-ward, as the incoming Sec. of the Army). The Dems are generally the most liberal few dozen, although with a few eyebrow-raising exceptions (Eric Massa, maybe most notably): Baldwin, Capuano, Conyers, Doggett, Donna Edwards, Ellison, Farr, Filner, Grayson, Grijalva, Honda, Kaptur, Kucinich, Barbara Lee, Lofgren, Massa, McGovern, Michaud, Payne, Pingree, Polis, Serrano, Shea-Porter, Sherman, Speier, Stark, Tierney, Tsongas, Waters, Watson, Welch, and Woolsey.  

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (5/26-30, likely voters, early May in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 34

None/other: 4

Undecided: 32

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (42)

Pat Toomey (R): 37 (36)

None/other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first poll I’ve seen of the Pennsylvania governor’s race; it’s from Susquehanna, a Republican pollster (this poll doesn’t seem to be taken on anyone’s behalf, although the early May Senate trendlines are from a poll on behalf of pro-business PEG PAC), so take with salt as needed. As expected, it shows a very tight race, giving a slight edge to Republican AG Tom Corbett over Democratic Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato. With very high undecideds, a lot of this seems to be about name recognition, and Corbett benefits by being a statewide official.

But, looking at geographical crosstabs, Onorato performs very well where he’s well-known, giving him a lot of room to pull into the lead once he’s better known. While Corbett actually leads 28/27 in the Dem-leaning Philadelphia suburbs, Onorato leads 51/29 in the Pittsburgh area, which is where both Corbett and Onorato are from. Also, bear in mind that this may not be the matchup in November 2010; on the Democratic side, there’s also Auditor Jack Wagner (also from the Pittsburgh area), while for the GOP, there’s former US Attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach (both from the Philly burbs).

On the Senate front, no surprises: Arlen Specter leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey by a comfortable but not huge margin of 9, up from a gap of 6 in the previous Susquehanna poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll from last week, as well as a month-old POS poll, both found a 9-point spread as well (although R2K and a month-old Quinnipiac found the margin over 20).

The poll also took a subsample of Democrats, and while they inexplicably didn’t ask about the possible Specter/Joe Sestak matchup, they did ask whether should face a primary challenge to earn his rightful place in the party. Dems approved of the primary challenge, 63%-28%.