Tag: AK-Sen

Fresh off the presses:

Begich: “This Race is Far From Over”

U.S. Senate candidate Mark Begich delivered the following comments at a news conference today in Anchorage:

“Let me say right up front that I have every reason to be optimistic about last night’s election results. I’ve been in this position before – Alaskans know every vote counts.

As you know, we ended the evening last night within less than two percent of winning this race, a spread of about 3,330 votes over the more than 220,000 cast in the Senate race. Each new wave of results last night put us a little closer.

I’m confident that Alaskans, like the rest of the country, want a new direction in Washington, and ultimately that will be reflected in the results.

Let me congratulate Senator Stevens on a hard-fought race. He has 40 years of accomplishments for our state and I believe Alaskans remembered that last night.

But he is no position to declare victory.

Let me be clear, this race is far from over. A lot of the information about what happens now is still being determined. But this is what we do know.

The rest of the statement is available below the fold.

There could be 20 percent or more of the ballots in this election still to be counted. We’ve heard numbers as high as 60,000 ballots still out there, including absentees, early voting, and question ballots.

We will do everything possible to make sure every vote is counted. Alaskans deserve that.

We ran an aggressive campaign and especially when it came to early voting and absentees. Just yesterday, over at the University, we had volunteers strongly encouraging students and faculty to vote, with significant results. Those votes have not been counted.

Lines have been long for weeks at City Hall and other early voting locations. We strongly encouraged our supporters to turn out. Those votes have not been counted. My vote has not been counted.

We will be monitoring closely the vote counting by the State. Already we’ve heard a few interesting reports at precincts that don’t make much sense.

For example, in the North Slope village of Wainwright, the Division of Elections doesn’t show a single vote for me, while the Libertarian candidate got 90, the non-partisan candidate received 84 and Senator Stevens got 8. That just defies common sense. I flat out won five of the other seven villages on the North Slope.

Before this election, we set up a legal team to monitor the vote counting and that team is in place to make sure every vote is counted properly.

It’s a little unclear to us when the outstanding votes will be counted. Some have said it could be as late as November 21st.  We hope it doesn’t take that long.

Alaska has serious business in the United States Senate and delaying our full attention there is a disservice to Alaskans.

Meanwhile, I will continue to devote my full energies to my responsibilities as mayor. We’re in the middle of our Fiscal ’09 budget cycle with the Assembly, so I’ll be working to pass that budget.

I think back just six years ago when I was first elected mayor of Anchorage. After several weeks of recounting, we ended with an 18-vote margin.

I’d settle for a little larger spread than that, but I’m optimistic in the end I’ll be setting a new direction for Alaska families in the United States Senate.”

This is it.  It’s time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races.  There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively.  Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered “safe” for the incumbent.  So what are the competitive races?

Again, just to be clear, I don’t do predictions.  Every time I do, horrible things happen.  So I won’t even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner.  And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I’ll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch.  All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.

See my previous mid-October diary to see what things have changed since my last update.  Previous rankings are in parentheses.

Tier I

1. Virginia (1): Former popular Governor Mark Warner (D) is still cruising.  Former unpopular former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) hasn’t even gotten above 35% in any poll taken since early September, and Warner cannot get below 55%.  Only God or the Devil can stop this one now, but still, no official predictions from me.

2. New Mexico (2): Rep. Tom Udall (D) is running against Rep. Steve Pearce (R).  Since October, Udall’s re-opened his massive lead after getting hit by attacks from conservative independent groups.  Pearce has not gotten above 42% since early September, while Udall has been consistently over the 50% mark at the same time.  The NRSC has basically conceded defeat in this race.

3. Colorado (3): Rep. Mark Udall (D) is Mo Udall’s son, and Tom Udall’s cousin.  He’s facing off against former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R).  All the late October polling shows Udall ahead by double digits.  The NRSC finally pulled out of Colorado last week after doing a head fake.

4. New Hampshire (4): Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen (D), who John Sununu (R) beat in 2002, is back for a rematch.  She has led Sununu in almost every single poll taken in 2008, and without some illegal phone-jamming on Election Day to help Sununu out this time around, Shaheen looks to be in good shape.  Though Sununu still has a significant cash on hand advantage, it hasn’t helped him.

5. Alaska (8): Conviction!  84-year-old Ted Stevens (R) was convicted on all 7 felony counts for not disclosing the gifts (over $250,000 worth) he got from oil company Veco Corp. last Monday.  Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D), who had been in a very close race with Stevens, has now opened up a decent lead in the polls, turning what seemed to be a nailbiter into a more comfortable lead.  Something about voting for a convicted felon, I guess.  Still, Rasmussen’s poll has it as a single-digit race, so don’t count out Alaska’s unique brand of crazy just yet.

6. North Carolina (5): The polls have shown a complete reversal of fortune starting in August.  Kay Hagan (D) has been climbing steadily in the polls, while incumbent Elizabeth Dole (R) has been steadily falling.  So what do you do if you’re Dole?  Run an incredibly horrible attack ad calling your opponent, a Sunday school teacher, “godless”.  That’s the sign of a desperate and losing campaign, as four different polls taken in late October now show Hagan at or above the 50% mark.

7. Oregon (6): Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) is challenging incumbent Gordon Smith (R), and has been steadily gaining ground in the polls over the past month.  Every non-partisan poll taken in late October showed Merkley with some kind of lead.  Still, none of them showed him at 50% or above, so this one’s not a done deal yet.

8. Minnesota (7): Norm Coleman (R) won this seat in 2002 only after Paul Wellstone (D) died just a few weeks before the election.  Comedian Al Franken got the DFL (basically the Democratic Party for Minnesota) nod.  The recent polling now shows a pure tossup, with some polls showing Franken in teh lead, and some polls showing Coleman leading.  But late-breaking news has a new lawsuit filed against Coleman alledging $75,000 being funneled to Coleman’s wife from a big GOP donor.

9. Georgia (9): Former state representative Jim Martin (D) is going up against Saxby Chambliss (R), who ousted Vietnam veteran and triple amputee Max Cleland (D) in 2002 by running a despicable ad blending the images of Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein into Cleland’s face, earning him the nickname “Shameless Saxby”.  Starting with the economic collapse, poll after poll showed a completely different race, with Martin only behind by a statistically insignificant margin.  However, they all still show Martin trailing.  Now, Georgia has a rule that the winner must get over 50% of the vote, and the Libertarian candidate may take enough away that nobody can get 50%, in which case it will go to a runoff in December.

10. Kentucky (10): Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) is now a top target of the Democrats.  Wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) can afford to self-fund, and he’ll need to, with McConnell’s HUGE warchest of over $9 million.  In just the last month, the polls suddenly showed Lunsford gaining significant ground on McConnell, but the latest two polls show McConnell gaining ground again, getting over the 50% mark.

11. Mississippi-B (11): Roger Wicker (R), appointed by governor Haley Barbour (R) on New Year’s Eve after Trent Lott (R) resigned to become a lobbyist, was previously the Congressman from MS-01.  Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove (D) has kept it close in the polls until recently.  As with Kentucky, the latest two polls now show Wicker above 50%.

Democratic safe seats

Arkansas (Mark Pryor)

Delaware (Joe Biden)

Illinois (Dick Durbin)

Iowa (Tom Harkin)

Louisiana (Mary Landrieu)

Massachusetts (John Kerry)

Michigan (Carl Levin)

Montana (Max Baucus)

New Jersey (Frank Lautenberg)

Rhode Island (Jack Reed)

South Dakota (Tim Johnson)

West Virginia (Jay Rockefeller)

Republican safe seats

Alabama (Jeff Sessions)

Idaho (Jim Risch)

Kansas (Pat Roberts)

Maine (Susan Collins)

Mississippi (Thad Cochran)

Nebraska (Mike Johanns)

Oklahoma (James Inhofe)

South Carolina (Lindsey Graham)

Tennessee (Lamar Alexander)

Texas (John Cornyn)

Wyoming (Michael Enzi)

Wyoming (John Barrasso)

So there you have it, my final rankings for the 2008 Senate races, as they stand with less than 24 hours to go.  We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

Hays Research Group (11/2, likely voters):

Mark Begich (D): 49

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 42

Other: 2

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And for the at-large House race:

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 49

Don Young (R-inc): 43

Other: 1

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Sounds about right to me. The fact that these two crumb-bums (Young and Stevens) are polling even in the low 40s is a testament to just how crusty of a GOP-loving state Alaska is.

But here’s a fun bonus finding: the McCain/Palin ticket leads Obama/Biden by only 48-45 according to this poll. Amusing!

A thought occurred to me earlier that I wanted to share to get peoples’ views.  Alaska’s polls close at 8 pm Alaska time, or 12 am on the East Coast (with the exception of the Aleutian Islands, which close at 1 am EST).  If the presidential election looks like it is over early, say 9 pm EST, it will only be 5 pm in Alaska, three hours before just about all of the Last Frontier’s polls shut.  Would this lead to many Democrats staying home, thereby saving Ted Stevens’ and Don Young’s butts?

Now, the networks will not be able to call the race until at least 11 pm EST.  Why?  Because California’s polls close at that time (8 pm on the West Coast), and Obama almost certainly cannot get to 270 before California’s 55 electoral votes are awarded to him.  So, while it may be clear that Obama has won the whole thing — if say, he captures Virginia and North Carolina, which close at 7 pm and 7:30 pm EST — the networks not be able to actually declare the winner until he is at the 270 electoral vote plateau.  Still, if it is clear that Obama has won, this could impact voters still heading to the polls in far away Alaska.  (A big part will be how the network anchors and analysts are portraying the results, and if they will be presuming Obama is the winner before California comes in. My guess is that to be on the safe side, they will temper their official language until they are sure.)

I think the situation is unlikely also because many voters will be clamoring to get to the polls, but it is possible that the election will no longer be any doubt by 8 pm Alaska time. Indeed, unless we are all still waiting at midnight here on the East Coast, Alaskans will still be heading to the polls after the race has been called.  Severely depressed resulting Democratic turnout may be the last saving grace that Ted and Don are praying for.

I posted this on my own blog, but I wanted the expert views of fellow SSPers.  What are peoples’ thoughts? Am I missing anything?

http://trumantolong.blogspot.c…

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/28-30, likely voters, 10/14-16):

Mark Begich (D): 58 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 36 (46)

(MoE: ±4%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 53 (50)

Don Young (R-inc): 44 (44)

(MoE: ±4%)

Ted Stevens and Don Young have a combined 75 years of congressional seniority, but it looks like Alaskans are poised to blow that up and start over. Most notably, Stevens’ conviction accounted for a 20-point swing since the previous poll two weeks ago. But some of the spirit of cleaning-house seems to have even transferred over to Berkowitz, whose numbers jumped a little as well.

McCain still has a big advantage at the presidential level, 58-39, but this poll also sees Sarah Palin’s favorables dropping back to somewhat earthbound levels (65-35) after two months of constant airing of her dirty laundry.

Rasmussen (10/28, likely voters, 10/6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 52 (48)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 44 (49)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Here it is: the first post-conviction poll of Alaska shows Stevens trailing Begich by 8 points. It’s a testament to Stevens’ strong popularity (and the redness of Alaska) that a man on his way to jail is still taking a share of the vote that large.

The Donald:

Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska), who is also under investigation by federal officials, offered a whole-hearted, but odd endorsement of Stevens, equating his pursuit of justice with that of disgraced former President Richard Nixon.

“I can remember Richard Nixon, you know, his years of service, what he’s done, and everybody [was] ridiculing him, and he ended up being the greatest president in the history of our century. … The Senator will be re-elected. He will appeal it. When he does go, he will win it because there’s no way this is a jury of his peers,” Young told the Anchorage Daily News.

No further comment required.

Ted Stevens was just found guilty of at least one all seven counts of making false statements. No link yet, but that’s the word that I’m hearing. (Update: CNN confirms it.)

What a huge bullet dodged for Mark Begich.

UPDATE: SSP is moving our rating of this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic.

Ivan Moore for Anchorage Press (10/17-19, likely voters, 10/3-6 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 46 (49)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 45 (45)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 51 (51)

Don Young (R-inc): 43 (42)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

After the initial shock of Ted Stevens’ indictment wore off (giving Mark Begich a huge boost), it seems like voters have been more and more willing to give Stevens some of the benefit of the doubt until a verdict is handed down, as the numbers in this race have drawn back to a tossup. With the case now in the hands of the jurors, it looks like we’re likely to have a verdict (or a mistrial) before Election Day, so whatever happens in the jury box may well decide the election.

Things look a little more settled in the House race, where Ethan Berkowitz continues to lead Don Young by high double single-digits. One note for caution, though, while Berkowitz’s favorables are as high as they’ve ever been in an Ivan Moore poll, the same is true of Young: Young’s positive/negative rating is 44-47, also his best showing in an Ivan Moore poll… but Young’s position in the head-to-head poll hasn’t improved much. Maybe the good folks of Alaska are starting to fondly recall why they love their own little grizzled 1890s prospector, consarn it… but still plan to turn the page on him.

Perhaps most noteworthy in this poll is the presidential numbers, showing Obama climbing much closer to McCain at 53-42 (reverting closer to the pre-Palin numbers, down from as much as a 54-35 McCain lead during the GOP convention). Perhaps the novelty effect of an Alaskan on the ticket is starting to wear off.

Research 2000 for The Great Orange Satan (10/14-16, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

Mark Begich (D): 48 (50)

Ted Stevens (R-inc): 46 (44)

Ethan Berkowitz (D): 50 (53)

Don Young (R-inc): 44 (39)

(MoE: ±4%)

Kos says that “we got spoiled by months of big leads in both these races”, but aside from a quick flurry of post-indictment polls showing Begich with a bounce, the Senate race has been close for a while now. (The at-large House seat less so, but it’s clear that Young is on the upswing.)

If you thought that beating these two tough old bastards would be a walk in the park, I’m afraid that you underestimated the ability of Alaska Republicans to rally around their own.