Tag: Creigh Deeds

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (6/15-17, likely voters, 6/1-3 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 44 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 45 (46)

Undecided: 11 (20)

(MoE: ±4%)

This is the second poll we’ve seen of the race since the Democratic primary concluded, and it’s more good news for Deeds (Rasmussen had Deeds up by 47-41 the day after the primary). While McDonnell will be a pretty tough candidate to beat, it’s worth repeating that, four years ago, Tim Kaine didn’t start off his race in nearly as good a position. Kaine lagged behind Republican Jerry Kilgore by mid-single digits in almost every poll prior to October before posting a beautiful finish. McDonnell will be a less embarrassing candidate strictly in terms of messaging and presentation for the GOP than Kilgore was in 2005, but the state has also become more Democratic since then. This will be a fun race to watch.

RaceTracker: VA-Gov

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

While 2010 will be chock-full of exciting races at all levels of government.  In 2009, though, there will be two marquee races across the country: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey.  Republicans are favored in both races, but both races should come down to the wire, and Democrats can hold both seats – with your help.

In Virginia, Democratic State Senator Creigh Deeds won an impressive, come-from-behind victory for the nomination this past Tuesday, demonstrating a strong ground game.  The Republican nominee will be far-right-winger Bob McDonnell.  The best description for McDonnell’s brand of Republicanism is that he is a Pat Robertson disciple.  You can learn more about McDonnell at TheRealBobMcDonnell.com.  Deeds and McDonnell have tangled before, in the 2005 Virginia Attorney General race, where McDonnell barely edged Deeds by 323 votes (yes, just 323 votes – that’s not a typo with zeroes missing) out of over 1.94 million votes counted.  This race will be exceptionally close, so every single dollar contributed and every single hour spent volunteering will make a real difference.  A bit of good news is that the first poll taken after Tuesday’s primary, by Rasmussen Reports, shows Deeds with a 47-41 lead over McDonnell, but this could just be due to a primary bump.  Rasmussen’s last poll showed McDonnell leading Deeds 45-30.  Your support will help Deeds sustain his new lead.

In New Jersey, Democratic incumbent Governor Jon Corzine will square off against Republican former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie.  Christie is very much at home in the Republican Culture of Corruption.  Republican Christie has faced scandals involving no-bid contracts, abuse of the state pension system, pay-to-play, and even allegedly cutting a deal to get his younger brother’s sentence reduced after being implicated for fraudulent trading practices on Wall Street.  Despite Christie’s mountain of scandal, New Jersey’s lagging economy has hurt Governor Corzine’s poll numbers.  Recent polling gives Christie a 7 to 13 point lead over Corzine.  Research 2000, May 25-27: Christie 46, Corzine 39; Rasmussen Reports, June 4: Christie 51, Corzine 38; and, Quinnipiac, June 10: Christie 50, Corzine 40.  In other words, Christie has an edge, but the fundamentals of the race moving forward favor Governor Corzine.  As the economy gradually picks up over the coming months and voters learn more about Christie’s corrupt background, New Jersey’s blue state status will shine through and Governor Corzine should tighten the race back up.  Your support will help Governor Corzine tighten the race up even faster.

Below are the links to how you can connect with the gubernatorial campaigns (and – please – contribute anything you can to these campaigns, and spread the word!).  Republicans are expecting (and expected) to win both of these races.  However, after being upset in the NY-20 special U.S. House election and losing a U.S. Senator to a Party switch, the GOP is reeling.  Losing either (or both!) VA-Gov or/and NJ-Gov would be a major body blow and simply crush Republicans heading into the 2010 calendar year.  If Democrats across the country are able to support these Democratic campaigns, we can flush the conventional wisdom down the toilet and deliver two more embarrassments to the Rush-Newt-Cheney Republican Party and two more losses to the Michael Steele RNC.

Creigh Deeds for Governor of Virginia	Deeds Website	Deeds Facebook	Deeds Twitter	Deeds YouTube	Deeds Blog	Deeds CONTRIBUTE
Jon Corzine for Governor of New Jersey	Corzine Website	Corzine Facebook	Corzine Twitter	Corzine YouTube	Corzine Blog	Corzine CONTRIBUTE

Rasmussen (6/10, likely voters, 4/15 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 47 (30)

Bob McDonnell (R): 41 (45)

Some other candidate: 2 (5)

Not sure: 10 (20)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That was fast! Hot off his surprisingly strong victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, state Senator Creigh Deeds seems to have gotten quite a post-primary bounce, pulling into a 6-point lead against AG Bob McDonnell. This is the first poll I can find where Deeds led McDonnell in a head-to-head matchup (although if you go back to December, Rasmussen found them tied at 39 apiece), and a huge improvement from the 45-30 gap in April… not coincidentally at a time in the primary when Deeds seemed to be lagging, tortoise-like, and Terry McAuliffe was sprinting ahead, hare-like.

The question is how long this will last. Obviously, there’s a lot of media visibility for Deeds right now and good buzz as well (as seen in his 59/27 favorables), thanks to his dominant statewide performance and also thanks to T-Mac’s quick and effusive endorsement. This may settle back into a tied race during the summer doldrums… or, given that Deeds seems to have already made strong inroads among NoVa voters even while doing what he was expected to do (put the rural parts of the state into play), maybe this will be the new normal. (Discussion already underway in DCCyclone‘s diary, which also contains a little more information about the crosstabs.)

I thought even before the primary that a Deeds win would get us a nice post-primary bump in general election trial heat polling, and that bump is happening a little faster than I imagined!  More below the jump.

Rasmussen has Deeds up 47-41 on the strength of Democratic unity.  McDonnell has the edge among independents, but only with a 43-36 plurality as but 16% of them are undecided.  Only 4% of Dems are undecided with Deeds picking up 89%, and Repugs have 11% undecided with 9% going to Deeds.

Another key demographic is that Deeds trails 49-36 among white voters with 12% undecided and 3% saying they’ll vote for “some other candidate,” although almost all of that 3% will end up choosing between the 2 so that the true undecided whites are 15%.  In Virginia about 40% of the white vote means a Democratic victory in a Governor’s race, so Deeds sitting at 36% with another 15% still persuadable puts him in a great position for victory.

Yes, yes, it’s early, and anything can happen, so this poll isn’t to be relied on too strongly……I’m a campaigns junkie and I know all that.

But the fact is this poll does mean something, that this race is winnable, and McDonnell no longer can be called “the frontrunner” as he was legitimately called in the pre-primary stretch.

It’s a toss-up at worst for us.

I voted for Deeds in the primary thinking he was the only one of the 3 who could beat McDonnell, and today that seems more true than ever.

Creigh’s top responsibilities for the next few weeks need to be fundraising and outreach to minority voters, especially blacks but also Hispanics and Asians.  I hope he raises the cash he needs this time, as he failed to do 4 years ago vs. McDonnell in the A.G. race.

Well, it looks like we get to take a jenga break a bit early tonight. We thought we’d open up the floor to what surely is topic #1: how did Creigh Deeds win? And looking forward, what does he need to do to win again in the fall? Please share your thoughts in comments.

UPDATE: In some not-so-great news, it looks like Democrats have decisively lost the race to hold on to Rep. Parker Griffith’s state Senate seat in Alabama.

Public Policy Polling is going to release their final VA-Gov survey very shortly. Tom Jensen teased us with this:

Looks like a tight race in Virginia… for second place. The undecideds seem to almost all be moving in the same direction.

I’m not going to call the race like I did the Saturday before the election for Kay Hagan based on early returns from our final poll because preferences in this race have been so fluid. But it doesn’t look like things are going to be as close on Tuesday as the polling in the last week suggested.

What do you think the numbers will look like? For reference, their prior numbers are here. We’ll post the results just as soon as PPP makes them available.

UPDATE (James): It’s out.

Public Policy Polling (6/6-7, likely voters, 5/28-31 in parens):

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (27)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 26 (24)

Brian Moran (D): 24 (22)

Undecided: 10 (26)

(MoE: ±3.0%)

Wow. What a huge movement for Creigh Deeds in just a few short weeks. Remember, Deeds was lagging at 14% in PPP’s 5/1-3 poll, but a well-timed endorsement from the Washington Post was clearly the catalyst for Deeds’ remarkable surge — and probably also a sign that a sizable share of Moran and McAuliffe’s support was pretty soft in the first place. Indeed, in the vote-rich DC burbs in Northern Virginia, where Deeds has been almost a non-factor for much of the race, Deeds has now pulled ahead of Moran by a 38-35 margin, with 20% going to McAuliffe.

And speaking of McAuliffe, take a look at his horrid favorability rating; among Democratic primary voters, just as many voters have a favorable opinion of the ex-DNC chair as those who dislike him (40%-40%). That’s pretty brutal. If Deeds can hold onto his lead on Tuesday, we may be dodging a major bullet here.

Of course, the usual caveats apply: Pegging the primary voter universe is a notoriously tough business (especially in an ultra-low turnout state like Virginia), and the ground game will be key on Tuesday. For now, though, the momentum is clearly at the back of Deeds.

SurveyUSA (5/31-6/2, likely voters, mid-May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (37)

Brian Moran (D): 26 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 29 (26)

Other/Undecided: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Cap’n, will you have a look a’ that!

Deeds was also the only candidate of the three to improve in head-to-heads against Bob McDonnell – in the last poll, he trailed 46-40, but is now just a point back at 44-43. McAuliffe and Moran both treaded water. The primary is this coming Tuesday, June 9th. Once again, SSP will be here to liveblog the results.

UPDATE (James): Suffolk has released a poll this morning showing Deeds with 29% to McAuliffe’s 26%, with Moran at 23%. And with that, Deeds takes the lead in Pollster.com’s graph.

• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he’d jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn’t have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he’ll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn‘s comments about how the Senate GOP doesn’t have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.

• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

• KY-Sen: Here’s a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for “whitfieldforsenate.com” and “whitfieldforgovernor.com” (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn’t a topline, but the result from a subsample that’s disposed to do well for Moran: people who’ve participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year’s presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are “interested.” Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she’ll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who’d do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card… Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can’t have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn’t interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor’s race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard’s entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run — but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state’s west to sneak through.

• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey’s advantage; she made reference to Musgrave’s letter in her own appeal for contributions.

• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she’d still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

• FL-25: Here’s a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

• NC-11: PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina’s state Senate districts.)

• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a “thank you” party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to “the conservative, religious crazy vote” and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney’s 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor’s position.

• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who’s only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn’t so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It’s Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/18-20, likely voters,  early April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 36 (19)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (24)

Creigh Deeds (D): 13 (16)

Undecided: 29 (41)

(MoE: 5%)

Public Policy Polling (PDF) (5/19-21, likely voters, early May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 29 (30)

Brian Moran (D): 20 (20)

Creigh Deeds (D): 20 (14)

Undecided: 31 (36)

(MoE: 3.9%)

Despite what you see here, PPP and R2K actually showed similar surges for McAuliffe – it’s just that PPP has polled more frequently. If you go back to their late March survey, the numbers are very similar to R2K’s. The biggest difference between the newest polls is that PPP, like SUSA, shows Deeds – who was just endorsed by the Washington Post – moving up, while R2K has him stagnating.

Even if Deeds does have positive momentum, will it be enough? The primary is just two weeks from today, and this is what all the recent polling looks like:

PPP suggests that McAuliffe is benefitting from the fact that neither Moran nor Deeds has been able to consolidate the support) of people who don’t like T-Mac (they split that group 40-35 in Moran’s favor). Time is running out for either man to break that logjam.

P.S. R2K also tested general election matchups, which you can find here.

SurveyUSA (5/17-19, likely voters, late April in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 37 (38)

Brian Moran (D): 22 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 26 (22)

Other/Undecided: 14 (18)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Creigh Deeds (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (44)

Terry McAuliffe (D): 40 (39)

Bob McDonnell (R): 46 (46)

Brian Moran (D): 37 (34)

Bob McDonnell (R): 47 (46)

(MoE: ±2.4%)

Reasearch 2000 will have a new primary poll out tomorrow, and PPP will have one Friday or Saturday. They note that the three candidates are evenly split among frequent primary voters, but more casual voters lean decidedly toward McAuliffe. The primary is on June 9th.