Tag: CA-44

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio continues to rack up goodwill among the far right, pulling in an endorsement from Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe. Rubio has already gotten a Jim DeMint endorsement; can Tom Coburn be far behind?

• LA-Sen: Southern Media and Opinion Research has a poll (conducted on behalf of local businessman Lane Grigsby, a big Republican donor — you might remember he personally dumped a ton of money into LA-06 last year) of the LA-Sen race that shows numbers remarkably similar to what else we’ve seen. They have David Vitter beating Charlie Melancon 48-36 (while Rasmussen had it at 46-36 a couple weeks ago, and a Melancon internal from last month was 47-37).

• NC-Sen: Erskine Bowles, the guy so pathetic he managed to lose to both carpetbagger Liddy Dole and anonymous Richard Burr, now has nothing but praise for his one-time opponent, saying “I’ve had a chance to work with this guy for four full years and nobody works harder or smarter for North Carolina than Richard Burr does.” At least the DSCC remembers how the game is played, taking Burr to task for voting against the stimulus and now touting his delivery of $2 million in grant money to a local fire department from the stimulus funds that he didn’t vote for.

• NV-Sen: In an indication of just how deep the non-aggression pact between Harry Reid and John Ensign goes, now John Ensign’s parents (who apparently just love to bail out troubled politicians) both contributed the maximum amount to Reid in the third fundraising quarter. Meanwhile, Ensign himself says he’s still willing to campaign on behalf of the Republican nominee against Reid, if he or she just asks. (My advice to Ensign: don’t sit by the phone waiting for those calls.)

• SC-Sen: This is the kind of praise you might not really want: two Republican party chairs from rural counties wrote an op-ed in the Times and Democrat defending Jim DeMint from charges that he didn’t bring enough pork back to South Carolina, saying that Jews got wealthy by watching their pennies and that DeMint was doing the same. The authors later apologized, and, to his credit, DeMint deplored the remark.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some help from Joe Biden for someone who probably doesn’t need the help: Patty Murray, who’s facing very little in the way of opposition and is sitting on more than $4 million CoH. Biden will be appearing at a Seattle fundraiser on Nov. 6. (If you’re wondering who’s stepped up to go against Murray so far, it seems like the GOP’s best prospect right now is Chris Widener, a motivational speaker and president of personal development company Made for Success who’s currently exploring the race. He’ll have to sell a whole lot of Successories posters to be able to compete financially.)

• FL-Gov: Fresh off a disappointing third fundraising quarter, Florida AG Bill McCollum may be facing another dose of bad news — state Sen. Paula Dockery says she is now “leaning very heavily” toward challenging McCollum for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. (J)

• MN-Gov: One more name on the already excruciatingly-long list of gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota: former DFL state Sen. Steve Kelley (who lost the 2000 Senate primary to Mark Dayton in an almost-as-large field). It sounds like he’s trying to brand himself as the “green” candidate this time.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more New Jersey poll to add to the pile today, from Monmouth University. They find the race a flat-out tie, with 39 for Jon Corzine and Chris Christie, and 14 for Chris Daggett. (Christie led 43-40-8 one month ago.) In terms of favorables, they both suck: Corzine is at 37/51 and Christie is at 40/41. Corzine did make at least one new friend, though: Michael Kenneth Williams (better known as Omar from The Wire) offers his endorsement.

Meanwhile, Christie now is suffering from a further expansion of the Michele Brown story (remember, she’s the one who got an undisclosed $46K loan from Christie), and, already losing ground in the polls, the timing couldn’t be worse. The New York Times revealed today that, despite their claims otherwise, Brown in fact used her position as Christie’s deputy at least two times to aid the campaign, taking control of a FOIA request about Christie’s stint as US Attorney and pushing up the schedule on the arrests for the 40-person corruption sting so that the arrests would occur before Christie’s permanent successor took over, so he could get the credit.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Yet another Siena poll shows David Paterson in deep doo-doo. The most noteworthy thing about this poll may be that Rudy Giuliani seems to be improving his lot, although he still isn’t taking any steps toward running for anything; Giuliani trails Andrew Cuomo only 50-43 (and beats Paterson 56-33, naturally), and also matches up well against Kirsten Gillibrand for the Senate race, winning that one 53-36. (Other matchups: Cuomo beats Paterson 70-20 in the primary. Cuomo and Paterson both beat Rick Lazio, 66-21 and 39-37. And George Pataki beats Kirsten Gillibrand, 46-41.)

• SC-Gov: Could the end of the road finally be approaching for Mark Sanford? (Assuming that Sarah Palin suddenly shows up and does something else stupid yet captivating, probably not.) A resolution of impeachment will be introduced in the GOP-held legislature during a special session next week. However, actual proceedings, if any, won’t occur until the full session in January.

• VA-Gov (pdf): Two new polls are out in Virginia, and neither one offers Creigh Deeds much cause for optimism. Clarus finds a 49-41 advantage for Bob McDonnell (up from a 42-37 edge last month). And Christopher Newport University for WVEC and the Virginian-Pilot finds, in their first poll of the race, a 45-31 lead for McDonnell (with a lot of undecideds). Meanwhile, former governor Doug Wilder continues to somewhat less than useless in this race, saying that Virginia “won’t sink into the seas” if McDonnell wins.

• AL-07: An internal poll from state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. gives us our first insight into the Democratic field in the open seat in this dark-blue district. Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot leads the field with 24, followed by Hilliard at 17, former Selma mayor James Perkins Jr. at 9, and attorney Terri Sewell at 4. Smoot, who may be the most progressive candidate in the field, benefits from high name recognition (68%), thanks to also being a radio talk show host. Sewell has much lower name recognition (32%) but a big fundraising advantage over everyone else; she’s probably the most moderate option, as seen in her close links to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis and her connections to Birmingham’s business community.

• CA-44: There seems to be some confusion as to whether or not the FBI is investigating GOP Rep. Ken Calvert. Calvert’s investment group apparently bought land that had been slated for development as a public park, which a grand jury found was in violation of state law. Whether or not the FBI is now involved, it’s the kind of publicity that can’t be good for Calvert, who’s facing a tricky rematch against Bill Hedrick in California’s Inland Empire.

• KS-04: One other internal poll to discuss, this time in the Republican field in the 4th. State Sen. Dick Kelsey (who paid for the poll) leads the field at 17, trailed by state Sen. Jean Schodorf at 15, businessman Wink Hartman at 8, and RNC member Mike Pompeo at 6. Whoever wins faces off against Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle, who’s been on a fundraising tear all of a sudden.

• MN-03: State Sen. Terri Bonoff, who lost the endorsement to Ashwin Media in 2008, is still “open” to running against freshman Republican Erik Paulsen in 2010, which would boost this race back into the top tier. Other Democrats interested in the race include Jim Meffert and Maureen Hackett.

• ME-Init (pdf): PPP polls Maine on Question 1 (the gay marriage initiative) and finds the state evenly split. 48% are in favor, and 48% are against. With a clear party line vote set, it looks like it’ll come down to independents, and they’re currently 50-44 in favor of the initiative (and thus against gay marriage).

• NJ-St. Ass.: While everyone has been focused on the governor’s race, there are also races for all the state Assembly seats in New Jersey in a few weeks as well. Republicans need to pick up eight seats in order to tie the Assembly (with a current Democratic advantage of 48-31). However, the fundraising advantage falls to the Democrats: taken together, Assembly Democrats have raised $6.8 million and spent $4 million, while Republicans have raised $2.9 million and spent $1.2 million. The financial disparity is especially pronounced in the “sleeper” districts where Republicans are counting on being able to make gains.

• Fundraising: There’s an interesting CQ piece on the sudden burst of fundraising among the Indian-American community, as that affluent and educated group gradually becomes more politically engaged. As you might have guessed, strong nationwide fundraising among Indian-Americans is what’s driving the surprisingly strong hauls from Ami Bera in CA-03, Manan Trivedi in PA-06, and Raj Goyle in KS-04.

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is apparently warming up to the idea of running for Senate instead of Governor (thanks to some entreaties from some big players — Madigan met with Barack Obama at the White House last week). However, according to the Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet, she has some demands: she wants an endorsement from Obama when she announces, and she wants the field cleared of rivals.

That’s potentially very awk-ward, though, as state Treasurer (and, more notably, Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias is already in the race, and has been fundraising very well (Madigan is sitting on $4 million, but that’s marked for a governor’s race and can’t be transferred to a federal race, so she’d be back to square one). Giannoulias issued a strong statement today that he wouldn’t be “bullied” out of the race, and sought to tie Madigan to party insiders. And even if Obama does manage to dangle some sort of carrot to entice Giannoulias out of the race, does he have the same sort of traction with Chris Kennedy, who also looks set to get in?

• NC-Sen: Here’s not the way to rebut polls showing you in bad shape: with a transparently pathetic internal poll. The Richard Burr camp points to a poll that reveals him “winning” (albeit with no specific topline numbers) against SoS Elaine Marshall, but with the head-to-head question asked only after questions as to which of the two would better serve as a “check and balance on the policies of Barack Obama.” No results against other interested Dems (like Mike McIntyre) were discussed.

• NH-Sen: More focus today on the possibility of Kelly Ayotte for the GOP Senate nomination. Attorney General in NH is an appointed position, so she’s never faced voters before, but that may be an asset; the rest of the state’s GOP bench, in Chuck Todd’s words, “all seem to have the smell of defeat on them.” Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel will be hosting a DC fundraiser for Rep. Paul Hodes later this month, as Hodes (who banked only $260K in 1Q) looks to pick up the fundraising pace.

• NV-Sen: In an example of the law of unintended consequences, John Ensign’s little indiscretions are further complicating the Nevada GOP’s efforts to find a suitable challenger to Harry Reid, as insiders get distracted by assessing the fallout. If today is any indication, it looks like the fallout is growing, not shrinking, with allegations of a second affair, and Ensign walking back his initial “extortion” claims in view of the complicated financial links between Ensign and the Hampton clan. For emphasis, if there were any doubt about it, ex-Rep. Jon Porter confirmed today that he won’t be running against Reid.

• SD-Gov, SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin hasn’t ruled out running for Governor in 2010; she said she’ll make a decision by the August recess.

• CA-03: Many insiders seem settled on CA-03 as the Democrats’ top target in California next year. Unbeknownst to many, there’s a third Democrat in the race against Rep. Dan Lungren, physician Ami Bera, who got in in April… and he’s actually been fundraising like a champ, claiming he’s on pace to have $250K at the end of June.

• CA-44: CA-44 seems like a good place for a pickup, too, especially now that Rep. Ken Calvert is getting softened up with a primary challenge from his friendly neighborhood teabagger. Real estate broker Chris Riggs said the race would be a “litmus test” and referred to Calvert as a “big tax-and-spend incumbent.”

• FL-08: State House speaker Larry Cretul (who just took over the job in March, in the wake of former speaker Ray Sansom’s corruption indictment) may already be looking to move up. He’s been talking to the NRCC about taking on Rep. Alan Grayson in this Dem-trending R+2 district. This may push out state Rep. Steve Precourt, who said he wouldn’t want to share a primary with Cretul. Cretul might still face an uphill battle in a primary, though, as his base is in Marion County, rather than the district’s population center of Orange County, where another likely GOPer candidate, Rich Crotty, is mayor.

• MS-01: State Sen. Merle Flowers has decided to forego a challenge to Cold Chillin’ Travis (apparently at the behest of the NRCC), clearing a path for fellow Sen. Alan Nunnelee – for now. Others may get in, and in a move reminiscent of the disastrous post-primary period last year, Flowers did not endorse Nunnelee. The big advantage for Nunnelee is that he, like Childers, is from the Tupelo region, whereas Flowers (like Greg Davis) is from DeSoto County in the south Memphis suburbs. (D)

• DSCC/DCCC: Tonight’s DSCC/DCCC fundraiser with Barack Obama is projected to raise $3 million, an amount that seems kind of weak compared with the $14.5 million haul from the NRCC/NRSC dinner a few weeks earlier. However, lobbyists were banned from the event, and the GOP haul involves some accounting sleight of hand, as the $14.5 million is the two committees’ entire fundraising haul over the eight-week period since early April. In addition, there’s a lower-profile fundraising breakfast/”issues conference” planned for Friday morning where there’s no Obama appearance but also no lobbyist ban in place.

• Census: It looks like we might break the logjam that’s keeping incoming Census Director Robert Groves from being confirmed; it appears he’s part of a blanket hold on several dozen nominees, not a specific hold, and Susan Collins is happy with Groves and working with Democrats to get him in place. In other Census news, the tinfoil-hat wingnuts intent on avoiding and/or lying to the Census have a high-profile supporter: Rep. Michele Bachmann, who says she won’t answer any questions on her form beyond number of people in her house. Because, y’know, if you told Uncle Sam how many bathrooms are in your house, ACORN might somehow win.

• Voting Rights: An interesting trio of voting rights bills passed committee in the House last week to little fanfare: most notably, the Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act (which guarantees no-excuse absentee voting in all states, something that’s still restricted in 22 states right now). Also passed were legislation providing grants to help states provide absentee ballot tracking and confirmation systems, and preventing state election officials from serving on federal campaign committees.

I’ve been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain’s closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Numbers are over the flip.

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

District	10-08 DIFF	02-09 DIFF	03-09 DIFF	05-09 DIFF
CA-03	R+2.19%	R+1.93%	R+1.91%	R+1.85%
CA-04	R+14.88%	R+14.68%	R+14.64%	R+14.69%
CA-24	R+6.40%	R+6.13%	R+6.04%	R+5.99%
CA-25	R+2.37%	R+1.68%	R+1.63%	R+1.52%
CA-26	R+5.57%	R+4.96%	R+4.92%	R+4.83%
CA-44	R+8.25%	R+7.52%	R+7.68%	R+7.77%
CA-45	R+4.60%	R+3.98%	R+3.99%	R+4.27%
CA-46	R+12.16%	R+11.79%	R+11.57%	R+11.47%
CA-48	R+16.12%	R+15.78%	R+15.46%	R+15.37%
CA-50	R+9.20%	R+8.90%	R+8.98%	R+8.87%

STATE SENATE DISTRICTS

District	10-08 DIFF	02-09 DIFF	03-09 DIFF	05-09 DIFF
SD-04	R+11.11%	R+11.05%	R+11.05%	R+11.10%
SD-12	D+13.92%	D+14.32%	D+14.37%	D+14.66%
SD-16	D+16.21%	D+16.53%	D+16.46%	D+16.49%
SD-18	R+16.01%	R+15.70%	R+15.67%	R+15.74%
SD-22	D+43.91%	D+44.21%	D+44.24%	D+44.35%
SD-24	D+31.96%	D+32.46%	D+32.39%	D+32.59%
SD-34	D+8.18%	D+8.63%	D+9.24%	D+9.39%
SD-36	R+17.49%	R+17.11%	R+17.19%	R+17.12%
SD-40	D+16.13%	D+16.84%	D+16.94%	D+17.07%

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS

District	10-08 DIFF	02-09 DIFF	03-09 DIFF	05-09 DIFF
AD-03	R+5.44%	R+5.37%	R+5.34%	R+5.45%
AD-05	R+1.23%	R+0.89%	R+0.87%	R+0.87%
AD-07	D+28.72%	D+29.11%	D+29.09%	D+29.09%
AD-09	D+37.61%	D+37.89%	D+37.93%	D+37.99%
AD-10	R+0.43%	R+0.11%	R+0.07%	D+0.01%
AD-15	D+3.96%	D+4.45%	D+4.51%	D+4.57%
AD-20	D+28.16%	D+28.43%	D+28.48%	D+28.44%
AD-21	D+20.26%	D+20.32%	D+20.39%	D+20.52%
AD-23	D+32.24%	D+32.39%	D+32.32%	D+32.29%
AD-25	R+5.51%	R+5.48%	R+5.46%	R+5.51%
AD-26	D+2.31%	D+2.76%	D+2.82%	D+2.83%
AD-30	D+9.81%	D+9.89%	D+9.65%	D+9.69%
AD-31	D+14.62%	D+15.12%	D+15.23%	D+15.30%
AD-33	R+4.81%	R+4.83%	R+4.86%	R+4.77%
AD-35	D+19.86%	D+20.26%	D+20.29%	D+20.34%
AD-36	R+0.05%	D+0.83%	D+0.91%	D+1.18%
AD-37	R+5.95%	R+5.62%	R+5.54%	R+5.47%
AD-38	R+3.76%	R+3.21%	R+3.18%	R+3.06%
AD-47	D+53.60%	D+53.67%	D+53.66%	D+53.67%
AD-50	D+45.03%	D+45.68%	D+45.71%	D+45.87%
AD-63	R+3.11%	R+2.59%	R+2.45%	R+2.37%
AD-64	R+5.98%	R+5.35%	R+5.72%	R+6.03%
AD-65	R+4.54%	R+3.92%	R+3.94%	R+4.82%
AD-68	R+9.27%	R+8.89%	R+8.43%	R+8.36%
AD-70	R+13.94%	R+13.61%	R+13.30%	R+13.16%
AD-74	R+11.11%	R+10.74%	R+10.79%	R+10.65%
AD-75	R+9.23%	R+9.07%	R+9.17%	R+9.08%
AD-76	D+14.91%	D+15.16%	D+15.07%	D+15.09%
AD-78	D+10.97%	D+11.50%	D+11.55%	D+11.62%
AD-80	D+7.82%	D+8.63%	D+8.84%	D+9.09%

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	37.73%	39.58%	R+1.85	O+0.5
CA-04	Tom McClintock	31.14%	45.83%	R+14.69	M+10.1
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.83%	41.82%	R+5.99	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.77%	39.29%	R+1.52	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.67%	40.50%	R+4.83	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.63%	42.40%	R+7.77	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.81%	42.08%	R+4.27	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.40%	44.77%	R+15.37	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.40%	40.27%	R+8.87	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.02%	44.12%	R+11.09	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.60%	32.94%	D+14.66	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.88%	47.62%	R+15.74	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.94%	46.06%	R+17.12	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.59%	33.10%	D+16.49	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	59.01%	14.66%	D+44.35	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.63%	21.04%	D+32.59	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.84%	33.45%	D+9.39	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.57%	29.50%	D+17.07	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.80%	40.25%	R+5.45	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.90%	38.77%	R+0.87	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.81%	42.32%	R+5.51	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.06%	39.23%	D+2.82	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.28%	36.59%	D+9.69	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.92%	40.69%	R+4.77	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.69%	38.51%	D+1.18	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.87%	41.34%	R+5.47	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.85%	39.91%	R+3.06	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	38.00%	40.37%	R+2.37	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	35.96%	41.99%	R+6.03	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.82%	41.64%	R+4.82	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.80%	41.16%	R+8.36	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.20%	43.36%	R+13.16	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.93%	41.58%	R+10.65	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.72%	39.80%	R+9.08	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.80%	23.71%	D+29.09	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.66%	18.67%	D+37.99	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.33%	39.32%	D+0.01	O+4.0
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.61%	36.04%	D+4.57	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.61%	20.17%	D+28.44	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.27%	26.75%	D+20.52	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.22%	18.93%	D+32.29	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.08%	33.78%	D+15.80	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.22%	27.88%	D+20.34	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.92%	11.25%	D+53.67	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	62.00%	16.13%	D+45.87	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.94%	26.85%	D+15.09	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.08%	31.46%	D+11.62	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.38%	36.29%	D+9.09	O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

• NY-20: Scott Murphy gets sworn in today as the newest member of the House Democratic caucus. Congratulations! (D)

• PA-Sen: All of a sudden, the Pennsylvania GOP is beating a path to Jim Gerlach’s door to get him to consider jumping over to the Senate race, now that they’re stuck facing an Arlen Specter vs. Pat Toomey wipeout in the general election. (Gerlach has been associated with the open governor’s race, but is still in the exploratory stage.) Gerlach says “Don’t rule anything out.” The rather moderate and Philly-burbs-based Gerlach might face the same weaknesses in a closed primary against Toomey that Specter did, though (although Gerlach hasn’t been cultivating conservative ill-will for decades like Specter).

• OK-Gov: Stuart Rothenberg reports that ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is getting close to a decision on whether to run for the governor’s seat in Oklahoma, and that he’s likely to get in. This would pit him in a battle royale with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin for the GOP nod.

• CA-03: Here’s some proof that there’s a lot of blood in the water in the eight GOP-held House seats that Obama won in California: some pretty big sharks are sniffing out the races. Phil Angelides (the former treasurer, and loser of the 2006 governor’s race) is reportedly “taking a serious look” at a run against Dan Lungren in the Dem-trending R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs.

• OH-08: Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, widely known as an anti-immigration activist, may challenge House GOP leader John Boehner in a primary in this R+14 district. (D)

• CA-44: No surprise here, but Bill Hedrick, who held Rep. Ken Calvert to 51-49 in this R+6 Inland Empire seat last year, officially announced he’s back for another try. The Corona/Norco School Board chair can’t expect another under-the-radar surprise attack, but can expect a lot of DCCC help this time.

• RNC: Although he seems to have publicly escaped the NY-20 loss without calls for his head, the behind-the-scenes attempts to take down or at least circumvent Michael Steele continue. Some RNC members are proposing a new rule that would place new restrictions and oversight on Steele’s power of the purse-strings. (Seems like they might get better results if they sought better restrictions and oversight on Steele’s mouth instead.)

• Gay Marriage: I’m pleasantly surprised how fast gay marriage is gaining widespread acceptance and turning into a winning issue for us: a CBS/NYT poll finds 42% support nationwide for legalized gay marriage, with another 25% supporting civil unions and only 28% opposed to any legal recognition. 57% of those under age 40 support gay marriage.

• Census: Here’s another example of how there’s no such thing as a neutral and apolitical census: there’s a debate raging over the issue of where to count persons who are in prison. While the Census Bureau currently plans to continue its policy in 2010 of counting prisoners where they reside (often in rural counties where a sizable percentage of the population is incarcerated), civil rights groups and even NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg support counting them at their last known address… which would mean more funds, and a redistricting advantage, for major cities.

• History: For the history fans among us, the Senate’s website has profiles of all 20 previous Senate party-switchers. (Here’s a chapter from US History I’d completely forgotten about: more than one-third of these switches were western-state senators in the 1890s during the free silver movement.)

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	37.72%	39.63%	R+1.91	O+0.5
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.84%	41.88%	R+6.04	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.72%	39.35%	R+1.63	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.64%	40.56%	R+4.92	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.70%	42.38%	R+7.68	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.97%	41.96%	R+3.99	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.41%	44.87%	R+15.46	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.38%	40.36%	R+8.98	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.05%	44.10%	R+11.05	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.46%	33.09%	D+14.37	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.91%	47.58%	R+15.67	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.94%	46.13%	R+17.19	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.61%	33.15%	D+16.46	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.98%	14.74%	D+44.24	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.62%	21.13%	D+32.49	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.82%	33.58%	D+9.24	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.59%	29.65%	D+16.94	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.81%	40.15%	R+5.34	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.93%	38.80%	R+0.87	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.84%	42.30%	R+5.46	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.04%	39.22%	D+2.82	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.31%	36.66%	D+9.65	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.91%	40.77%	R+4.86	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.56%	38.65%	D+0.91	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.86%	41.40%	R+5.54	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.84%	40.02%	R+3.18	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.90%	40.35%	R+2.45	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.11%	41.83%	R+5.72	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	37.14%	41.08%	R+3.94	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.82%	41.25%	R+8.43	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.19%	43.49%	R+13.30	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.89%	41.68%	R+10.79	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.71%	39.88%	R+9.17	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.81%	23.72%	D+29.09	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.64%	18.71%	D+37.93	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.32%	39.39%	R+0.07	O+4.0
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	54.23%	22.06%	D+32.17	O+41.2
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.60%	36.09%	D+4.51	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.65%	20.17%	D+18.48	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.22%	26.83%	D+20.39	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.28%	18.96%	D+32.32	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.07%	33.84%	D+15.23	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.24%	27.95%	D+20.29	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.93%	11.27%	D+53.66	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.92%	16.21%	D+45.71	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.96%	26.89%	D+15.07	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.09%	31.54%	D+11.55	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.33%	36.49%	D+8.84	O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he’s seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.

• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he’s out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter’s ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.

• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y’know, follow the rule of law)… or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he’ll need in 2012 if he’s going to have any hope in the presidential primary.

• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn’t buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it’s a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn’t be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).

• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is “considering” another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he’d have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there’s also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.

• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).

• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn’t yet decided how he’ll vote on the Democrats’ budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)

• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it’s a good pick. It’s Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census’s associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won’t be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).

After very nearly shocking the nation with his surprisingly strong result against GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert, Democrat Bill Hedrick has finally conceded defeat. From the Riverside Press-Enterprise:

More than three weeks after Election Day, the votes have finally been tallied in the 44th Congressional District, and Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick acknowledged defeat.

“We have shown quite clearly that we most certainly can win this seat two years from now,” Hedrick said in a letter sent late Thursday to supporters. “While we are disappointed that we did not win this election, we are not discouraged.”

The longtime Corona-Norco school board member vowed to run again in two years to unseat incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert.

This is a rematch that I can get behind. On paper, Hedrick is a fine candidate — he’s an elected school board president with a son serving in Iraq. I wouldn’t mind seeing what he’d be able to do with the enthusiastic backing of national Democrats, as well as a healthy campaign budget (he raised just $155K for his race). In a district like this one, the Dem bench is probably pretty bare, so giving Hedrick a second crack seems like a pretty good idea to me.

Update: In the comments, SSPer Steven Axelrod, himself a CA-44 resident, weighs in. It’s worth a read.

When we last checked in with the shocking result in California’s 44th District, Democrat Bill Hedrick was trailing GOP scuzzbucket Rep. Ken Calvert by 4600 votes. The margin has since grown to about 5900 votes. Here’s an update from Bill Hedrick communications director Lori Vandermeir:

Here’s where we stand:  They began counting ballots today in Riverside County so we should have some sort of indication when those numbers are released as to how we’re trending.

The end of last week only OC ballots was being counted which of course didn’t help our numbers – we’re down in that portion of the district (but OC accounts for only 20% of the district and we’re up in Riverside which accounts for 80%).

At this point, only VBM ballots are being counted (those that came in late but were postmarked correctly or those that were dropped off at the polls on election day).

As long as we trend the way we believe we will (maintaining a 4%-5% lead in Riverside County) we should be fine going into the provisional ballot count which should trend highly in our favor.  That process doesn’t begin for another week or two.

Stay tuned.

UPDATE (David): Another dispatch from Lori:

The good news is we’ve been told by the Orange County Registrar that they are now done counting the VBM ballots and we’ve held steady at 37% (which is 14% above Democratic registration – an amazing feat considering that county didn’t really know our candidate before this race).  The bad news is that the OC number today knocked us down a few more thousand overall.

I think I’ve already mentioned to you that our district spans both Orange County and Riverside.  80% of the district is in Riverside (where we’ve been winning) while 20% is in south Orange County (where we’re losing).

While Orange County is now complete, there are still over 50,000 VBM ballots to count in Riverside and we are very sure those will continue to trend in our favor (as they have all along) so the gap should narrow on both Wednesday and Friday (when that county continues counting).

In addition, there are still tens of thousands of provisional ballots which we know will trend our way.  Our campaign received hundreds of calls on election day from solid Democrats complaining that they had been issued provisional ballots even though they had voted in June at the exact same location so we feel safe in saying that we believe the majority of provisional ballots will lean Democratic.

This is what things look like in Orange and Riverside  (the county websites appear to be more up-to-date than the CA SoS):

At current rates, Hedrick would only net about 1,500 votes in Riverside if there are 50K left to count, as Lori suggests. However, unlike some counties in CA, Orange and Riverside don’t appear to break out VBM vs. election day stats, so there’s no way to know just yet if perhaps Hedrick did better in the early vote thanks to heightened Dem enthusiasm.

And no matter what, there are all the provisionals, which always tend to favor Dems – and we don’t have an exact count on those yet. Hedrick is facing difficult odds here, but my fingers are crossed.

(Proudly cross-posted at C4O)

This week has been nothing short of amazing! Barack Obama will be our next President. More and better Democrats will be going to Congress. The electoral map has undergone a major blue shift.

So why has this whole experience been bittersweet at best for me? Well, all is not well in my own home state. So what can we celebrate and what must we fix? Let me share with you the story of this election from behind the scenes.

First off, let’s start with the bad news. We lost in California. But wait, you ask, didn’t Obama win by about 24%? Isn’t that good? Of course it is, and that isn’t the problem.

The problem in California is that Barack Obama had hardly any coattails here. Look at how Prop 8, the marriage ban, may end up having to be stopped at the courts (again, hopefully). Look at how, barring the results in CA-44 & CA-04 changing in the provisional vote count, we have not gained any new Congressional seats. Look at how we’re still short of a 2/3 supermajority in both houses of the state legislature.

Simply put, we failed our mission in The Golden State. There were hundreds of thousands of “undervotes” here, meaning that people voted Obama for President but did NOT continue downballot to vote on Congress, the initiatives, and local races. This is nothing short of tragic, and there’s no excuse for the nation’s biggest Blue State to still show so much red! Because of the inept and disastrous “leadership” of the state party, the refusal of the DCCC to invest in real races like CA-44 & CA-46, and the horribly gawd-awful “leadership” by The Task Force & Equality California on the No on 8 campaign & their failure to have a real ground game, we missed the opportunity to turn the Obama victory into a progressive victory in California.

Now contrast what happened in California on Tuesday to what happened in Nevada on the same day. While one state didn’t change much, the other state next door underwent a massive transformation! Like Mountain West neighbors New Mexico & Colorado, Nevada is now officially a Blue State! And not just that, but Democrats now have a broad and clear mandate for progressive change.

Progressive Democrat Dina Titus was elected to Congress in a “swing district” that Bush won in 2004. Democrats now control both houses in the state legislature for the first time since 1991, including a 2/3 supermajority in the Assembly. Voters approved a good initiative that will actually help Nevada fully fund its schools. And of course, Barack Obama won the ex-Red State by a whopping 12%, including an 18% win in Clark County (Las Vegas Metro) and wins in the formerly Republican Carson City & Washoe (Reno) Counties!

So why were the results in Nevada so dramatically different? Let’s see, Harry Reid and the state party leaders actually began early in registering more Democrats and building an aggressive field operation while the GOP was power drunk and asleep at the wheel. The Obama campaign and the state party were effective in coordinating with the Dina Titus campaign, the Jill Derby campaign up north, and the local campaigns. All the candidates up and down the ballot had a clear and consistent message for change more. economy, energy & environment, education, health care, and so much more. Basically, Democrats worked together on the ground and that’s why we won!

So what lessons can we learn from this tale of two states? First off, there’s no real substitute for a grassroots door-to-door, face-to-face campaign. Despite the good last-minute ads, they may have been too little & too late to make up for the lack of a ground game for No on 8 in California. Meanwhile in Nevada, no amount of negative attack ads from the Republicans against Dina Titus & Barack Obama could make up for their complete lack of a ground game while we Democrats truly rocked the vote!

OSecondly, Nevada Democrats succeeded in translating an Obama victory into a progressive victory while California Democrats were simply lost in translation. Why couldn’t we win the 45th & 48th Congressional Districts when Obama carried them? Why couldn’t Debbie Cook win in the 46th when Obama carried it? Why were there so many undervotes statewide? Whatever the Nevada Democratic Party did right, the California Democratic Party needs to learn how to do it.

And finally, we should all be of good cheer! The West is ours if we want it! The results across the region prove that where Democrats work, Democrats win. But in places like California where state party leaders grew complacent, we lost out on real opportunities.

So what do we do next? After we’re done celebrating, we will go back to work! We have more work to do to keep progress going, so let’s do it! 😀