Tag: CA-03

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio continues to rack up goodwill among the far right, pulling in an endorsement from Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe. Rubio has already gotten a Jim DeMint endorsement; can Tom Coburn be far behind?

• LA-Sen: Southern Media and Opinion Research has a poll (conducted on behalf of local businessman Lane Grigsby, a big Republican donor — you might remember he personally dumped a ton of money into LA-06 last year) of the LA-Sen race that shows numbers remarkably similar to what else we’ve seen. They have David Vitter beating Charlie Melancon 48-36 (while Rasmussen had it at 46-36 a couple weeks ago, and a Melancon internal from last month was 47-37).

• NC-Sen: Erskine Bowles, the guy so pathetic he managed to lose to both carpetbagger Liddy Dole and anonymous Richard Burr, now has nothing but praise for his one-time opponent, saying “I’ve had a chance to work with this guy for four full years and nobody works harder or smarter for North Carolina than Richard Burr does.” At least the DSCC remembers how the game is played, taking Burr to task for voting against the stimulus and now touting his delivery of $2 million in grant money to a local fire department from the stimulus funds that he didn’t vote for.

• NV-Sen: In an indication of just how deep the non-aggression pact between Harry Reid and John Ensign goes, now John Ensign’s parents (who apparently just love to bail out troubled politicians) both contributed the maximum amount to Reid in the third fundraising quarter. Meanwhile, Ensign himself says he’s still willing to campaign on behalf of the Republican nominee against Reid, if he or she just asks. (My advice to Ensign: don’t sit by the phone waiting for those calls.)

• SC-Sen: This is the kind of praise you might not really want: two Republican party chairs from rural counties wrote an op-ed in the Times and Democrat defending Jim DeMint from charges that he didn’t bring enough pork back to South Carolina, saying that Jews got wealthy by watching their pennies and that DeMint was doing the same. The authors later apologized, and, to his credit, DeMint deplored the remark.

• WA-Sen: Here’s some help from Joe Biden for someone who probably doesn’t need the help: Patty Murray, who’s facing very little in the way of opposition and is sitting on more than $4 million CoH. Biden will be appearing at a Seattle fundraiser on Nov. 6. (If you’re wondering who’s stepped up to go against Murray so far, it seems like the GOP’s best prospect right now is Chris Widener, a motivational speaker and president of personal development company Made for Success who’s currently exploring the race. He’ll have to sell a whole lot of Successories posters to be able to compete financially.)

• FL-Gov: Fresh off a disappointing third fundraising quarter, Florida AG Bill McCollum may be facing another dose of bad news — state Sen. Paula Dockery says she is now “leaning very heavily” toward challenging McCollum for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. (J)

• MN-Gov: One more name on the already excruciatingly-long list of gubernatorial candidates in Minnesota: former DFL state Sen. Steve Kelley (who lost the 2000 Senate primary to Mark Dayton in an almost-as-large field). It sounds like he’s trying to brand himself as the “green” candidate this time.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more New Jersey poll to add to the pile today, from Monmouth University. They find the race a flat-out tie, with 39 for Jon Corzine and Chris Christie, and 14 for Chris Daggett. (Christie led 43-40-8 one month ago.) In terms of favorables, they both suck: Corzine is at 37/51 and Christie is at 40/41. Corzine did make at least one new friend, though: Michael Kenneth Williams (better known as Omar from The Wire) offers his endorsement.

Meanwhile, Christie now is suffering from a further expansion of the Michele Brown story (remember, she’s the one who got an undisclosed $46K loan from Christie), and, already losing ground in the polls, the timing couldn’t be worse. The New York Times revealed today that, despite their claims otherwise, Brown in fact used her position as Christie’s deputy at least two times to aid the campaign, taking control of a FOIA request about Christie’s stint as US Attorney and pushing up the schedule on the arrests for the 40-person corruption sting so that the arrests would occur before Christie’s permanent successor took over, so he could get the credit.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Yet another Siena poll shows David Paterson in deep doo-doo. The most noteworthy thing about this poll may be that Rudy Giuliani seems to be improving his lot, although he still isn’t taking any steps toward running for anything; Giuliani trails Andrew Cuomo only 50-43 (and beats Paterson 56-33, naturally), and also matches up well against Kirsten Gillibrand for the Senate race, winning that one 53-36. (Other matchups: Cuomo beats Paterson 70-20 in the primary. Cuomo and Paterson both beat Rick Lazio, 66-21 and 39-37. And George Pataki beats Kirsten Gillibrand, 46-41.)

• SC-Gov: Could the end of the road finally be approaching for Mark Sanford? (Assuming that Sarah Palin suddenly shows up and does something else stupid yet captivating, probably not.) A resolution of impeachment will be introduced in the GOP-held legislature during a special session next week. However, actual proceedings, if any, won’t occur until the full session in January.

• VA-Gov (pdf): Two new polls are out in Virginia, and neither one offers Creigh Deeds much cause for optimism. Clarus finds a 49-41 advantage for Bob McDonnell (up from a 42-37 edge last month). And Christopher Newport University for WVEC and the Virginian-Pilot finds, in their first poll of the race, a 45-31 lead for McDonnell (with a lot of undecideds). Meanwhile, former governor Doug Wilder continues to somewhat less than useless in this race, saying that Virginia “won’t sink into the seas” if McDonnell wins.

• AL-07: An internal poll from state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr. gives us our first insight into the Democratic field in the open seat in this dark-blue district. Jefferson County Commissioner Shelia Smoot leads the field with 24, followed by Hilliard at 17, former Selma mayor James Perkins Jr. at 9, and attorney Terri Sewell at 4. Smoot, who may be the most progressive candidate in the field, benefits from high name recognition (68%), thanks to also being a radio talk show host. Sewell has much lower name recognition (32%) but a big fundraising advantage over everyone else; she’s probably the most moderate option, as seen in her close links to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis and her connections to Birmingham’s business community.

• CA-44: There seems to be some confusion as to whether or not the FBI is investigating GOP Rep. Ken Calvert. Calvert’s investment group apparently bought land that had been slated for development as a public park, which a grand jury found was in violation of state law. Whether or not the FBI is now involved, it’s the kind of publicity that can’t be good for Calvert, who’s facing a tricky rematch against Bill Hedrick in California’s Inland Empire.

• KS-04: One other internal poll to discuss, this time in the Republican field in the 4th. State Sen. Dick Kelsey (who paid for the poll) leads the field at 17, trailed by state Sen. Jean Schodorf at 15, businessman Wink Hartman at 8, and RNC member Mike Pompeo at 6. Whoever wins faces off against Democratic state Rep. Raj Goyle, who’s been on a fundraising tear all of a sudden.

• MN-03: State Sen. Terri Bonoff, who lost the endorsement to Ashwin Media in 2008, is still “open” to running against freshman Republican Erik Paulsen in 2010, which would boost this race back into the top tier. Other Democrats interested in the race include Jim Meffert and Maureen Hackett.

• ME-Init (pdf): PPP polls Maine on Question 1 (the gay marriage initiative) and finds the state evenly split. 48% are in favor, and 48% are against. With a clear party line vote set, it looks like it’ll come down to independents, and they’re currently 50-44 in favor of the initiative (and thus against gay marriage).

• NJ-St. Ass.: While everyone has been focused on the governor’s race, there are also races for all the state Assembly seats in New Jersey in a few weeks as well. Republicans need to pick up eight seats in order to tie the Assembly (with a current Democratic advantage of 48-31). However, the fundraising advantage falls to the Democrats: taken together, Assembly Democrats have raised $6.8 million and spent $4 million, while Republicans have raised $2.9 million and spent $1.2 million. The financial disparity is especially pronounced in the “sleeper” districts where Republicans are counting on being able to make gains.

• Fundraising: There’s an interesting CQ piece on the sudden burst of fundraising among the Indian-American community, as that affluent and educated group gradually becomes more politically engaged. As you might have guessed, strong nationwide fundraising among Indian-Americans is what’s driving the surprisingly strong hauls from Ami Bera in CA-03, Manan Trivedi in PA-06, and Raj Goyle in KS-04.

• FL-Sen: Here’s something of an ooops from Bob Mendendez at the DSCC: his comments last week where he seemed to leave out the possibility of a pickup in the open seat race in Florida prompted former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre to jump into the race, saying “You can’t write off Florida” (or at least that’s what Ferre said was the impetus, although that doesn’t seem like the kind of thing you do with less than a week of planning). This week, the DSCC is saying that Menendez misspoke and that they’re pleased with Kendrick Meek’s fundraising so far.

• KS-Sen: You might remember that yesterday we said that Democratic state Treasurer Dennis McKinney hadn’t ruled out running for Senate. However, a source close to McKinney tells us that McKinney (who was appointed after previous GOP Treasurer Lynn Jenkins was elected to KS-02) plans to run for Treasurer in 2010.

• CT-Gov: Jodi Rell is facing some possible ethical trouble; Democrats accuse her of spending state money for political purposes by hiring pollsters to do focus groups on the state budget, and have referred the matter to the Office of State Ethics. The polling seemed to veer into politics in terms of message-testing and looking at perceptions of AG Richard Blumenthal, a possible Democratic opponent. Rell has formed an exploratory committee for re-election, but we’re still waiting to see if she follows through; stuff like this may help chip away at her veneer of inevitability.

• MN-Gov: Here’s a first: someone’s not running for Minnesota governor. St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman decided against trying to wade into the crowded Democratic primary field, saying his work as mayor wasn’t done.

• NJ-Gov: One more pollster finds a super-tight gubernatorial race in New Jersey. Neighborhood Research, a Republican pollster (but not working for the Christie campaign) finds Chris Christie leading Jon Corzine only 36-35, with Chris Dagget pulling in 11. Their previous poll last month gave Christie a 4-point edge. Corzine’s campaign has apparently succeeded in making Christie just as widely disliked as Corzine — Christie’s favorables have dropped to 28%, equal to Corzine’s. Also, it doesn’t look like Sarah Palin will get to ride to Chris Christie’s rescue: the Christie and McDonnell camps have both given a “thanks but not thanks” to her offer of help, according to Politico.

• PA-Gov: GrassrootsPA, the rightosphere’s Pennsylvania outpost, commissioned a poll through Dane & Associates to see how Republican AG Tom Corbett matches up against his Democratic rivals (no Jim Gerlach head-to-heads, unfortunately). The sample size is a teeny-weeny 200, but the numbers line up with other polling: the closest race is with fellow statewide official, Auditor Jack Wagner, who trails Corbett 41-37. Corbett leads Philly businessman Tom Knox 44-36, Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato 44-32, and ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel 53-27.

• VA-Gov: Lots of poll watchers were waiting for the newest Washington Post poll of the Virginia race to come out, to see if it gave more favorable numbers to Creigh Deeds than we saw out of recent Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls. WaPo tended to be a bit more favorable to Deeds, but they’re seeing what everyone else is seeing: Bob McDonnell now leads 53-44. Looks like whatever traction Deeds got post-thesis-gate has drifted away.

• WY-Gov: The main story in Wyoming is that everyone is still waiting to see whether Dave Freudenthal challenges Wyoming’s term limits law and goes for a third term. Former GOP state Rep. Ron Micheli is running regardless, as we reported recently, but there are a few other behind-the-scenes moves going on. State House Speaker Colin Simpson (and son of Sen. Alan Simpson), at some point, filed to open an exploratory committee (and would probably be GOP frontrunner if he got in). On the Democratic side, state Sen. Mike Massie has been touring the state rounding up support (with Freudenthal’s blessing), but says he won’t create an exploratory committee until he knows Freudenthal isn’t running.

• CA-03: Elk Grove city councilor Gary Davis has dropped his bid for the Democratic nomination in the 3rd, to go up against Rep. Dan Lungren (who squeaked by in 2008). Davis didn’t seem to be making much fundraising headway against physician Ami Bera and public utility executive Bill Slaton.

• CA-10: Republicans are hanging on to some glimmers of hope in the special election in the 10th, offering up an internal poll from David Harmer’s camp, by Wilson Research. The poll shows Harmer within single digits of Democratic Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, 41-34. (It also claims that, once you adjust for the 35% share that the GOP got in the primary, it closes to a 2-pt gap.)

• FL-24: Another three-way primary got less crowded, this time on the Republican side. State Rep. Dorothy Hukill decided to end her campaign for the primary to go up against Democratic freshman Suzanne Kosmas; Hukill will run for re-election instead. That leaves fellow state Rep. Sandy Adams, and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel in the Republican field.

• IN-02: It looks like Republican state Rep. Jackie Wolarski (generally known as “Wacky Jackie”) is set to launch her campaign against sophomore Rep. Joe Donnelly. She says she’s leaning in that direction and will open an exploratory committee by Monday.

• KS-02: The Democrats have nailed down a solid recruit to go up against Great White Dope Lynn Jenkins in the 2nd. State senator Laura Kelly, who has represented a Topeka-area district since 2004, announced today that she will try to reclaim the seat lost by Nancy Boyda last year.

• NY-19: This could get inconvenient for Republican Assemblyman Greg Ball, who’s going up against Rep. John Hall in this swing district. The New York Democratic Lawyers Council filed an FEC complaint against Ball this week, alleging a series of illegal solicitations, improper automatic phone calls, and illegal use of Assembly resources for his congressional campaign.

• NY-23: The establishment/hardliner schism continues unabated in the 23rd, where state Conservative Party chair Michael Long has sent around a memo calling on other conservative activists to stop funding the NRCC until it backs off its support for moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava. However, Texas Rep. Jeb Hensarling didn’t get the message; the former chair of the Republican Study Committee (the House GOP’s right-wing ideological caucus) gave his endorsement to Scozzafava, on purely pragmatic grounds (saying “she’s the only Republican who can win”). This endorsement probably won’t resonate much outside the Beltway’s financial circles, though; I can’t imagine more than a handful of 23rd district residents know Hensarling’s name.

• IL-Sen: AG Lisa Madigan is apparently warming up to the idea of running for Senate instead of Governor (thanks to some entreaties from some big players — Madigan met with Barack Obama at the White House last week). However, according to the Sun-Times’ Lynn Sweet, she has some demands: she wants an endorsement from Obama when she announces, and she wants the field cleared of rivals.

That’s potentially very awk-ward, though, as state Treasurer (and, more notably, Friend of Barack) Alexi Giannoulias is already in the race, and has been fundraising very well (Madigan is sitting on $4 million, but that’s marked for a governor’s race and can’t be transferred to a federal race, so she’d be back to square one). Giannoulias issued a strong statement today that he wouldn’t be “bullied” out of the race, and sought to tie Madigan to party insiders. And even if Obama does manage to dangle some sort of carrot to entice Giannoulias out of the race, does he have the same sort of traction with Chris Kennedy, who also looks set to get in?

• NC-Sen: Here’s not the way to rebut polls showing you in bad shape: with a transparently pathetic internal poll. The Richard Burr camp points to a poll that reveals him “winning” (albeit with no specific topline numbers) against SoS Elaine Marshall, but with the head-to-head question asked only after questions as to which of the two would better serve as a “check and balance on the policies of Barack Obama.” No results against other interested Dems (like Mike McIntyre) were discussed.

• NH-Sen: More focus today on the possibility of Kelly Ayotte for the GOP Senate nomination. Attorney General in NH is an appointed position, so she’s never faced voters before, but that may be an asset; the rest of the state’s GOP bench, in Chuck Todd’s words, “all seem to have the smell of defeat on them.” Meanwhile, Rahm Emanuel will be hosting a DC fundraiser for Rep. Paul Hodes later this month, as Hodes (who banked only $260K in 1Q) looks to pick up the fundraising pace.

• NV-Sen: In an example of the law of unintended consequences, John Ensign’s little indiscretions are further complicating the Nevada GOP’s efforts to find a suitable challenger to Harry Reid, as insiders get distracted by assessing the fallout. If today is any indication, it looks like the fallout is growing, not shrinking, with allegations of a second affair, and Ensign walking back his initial “extortion” claims in view of the complicated financial links between Ensign and the Hampton clan. For emphasis, if there were any doubt about it, ex-Rep. Jon Porter confirmed today that he won’t be running against Reid.

• SD-Gov, SD-AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin hasn’t ruled out running for Governor in 2010; she said she’ll make a decision by the August recess.

• CA-03: Many insiders seem settled on CA-03 as the Democrats’ top target in California next year. Unbeknownst to many, there’s a third Democrat in the race against Rep. Dan Lungren, physician Ami Bera, who got in in April… and he’s actually been fundraising like a champ, claiming he’s on pace to have $250K at the end of June.

• CA-44: CA-44 seems like a good place for a pickup, too, especially now that Rep. Ken Calvert is getting softened up with a primary challenge from his friendly neighborhood teabagger. Real estate broker Chris Riggs said the race would be a “litmus test” and referred to Calvert as a “big tax-and-spend incumbent.”

• FL-08: State House speaker Larry Cretul (who just took over the job in March, in the wake of former speaker Ray Sansom’s corruption indictment) may already be looking to move up. He’s been talking to the NRCC about taking on Rep. Alan Grayson in this Dem-trending R+2 district. This may push out state Rep. Steve Precourt, who said he wouldn’t want to share a primary with Cretul. Cretul might still face an uphill battle in a primary, though, as his base is in Marion County, rather than the district’s population center of Orange County, where another likely GOPer candidate, Rich Crotty, is mayor.

• MS-01: State Sen. Merle Flowers has decided to forego a challenge to Cold Chillin’ Travis (apparently at the behest of the NRCC), clearing a path for fellow Sen. Alan Nunnelee – for now. Others may get in, and in a move reminiscent of the disastrous post-primary period last year, Flowers did not endorse Nunnelee. The big advantage for Nunnelee is that he, like Childers, is from the Tupelo region, whereas Flowers (like Greg Davis) is from DeSoto County in the south Memphis suburbs. (D)

• DSCC/DCCC: Tonight’s DSCC/DCCC fundraiser with Barack Obama is projected to raise $3 million, an amount that seems kind of weak compared with the $14.5 million haul from the NRCC/NRSC dinner a few weeks earlier. However, lobbyists were banned from the event, and the GOP haul involves some accounting sleight of hand, as the $14.5 million is the two committees’ entire fundraising haul over the eight-week period since early April. In addition, there’s a lower-profile fundraising breakfast/”issues conference” planned for Friday morning where there’s no Obama appearance but also no lobbyist ban in place.

• Census: It looks like we might break the logjam that’s keeping incoming Census Director Robert Groves from being confirmed; it appears he’s part of a blanket hold on several dozen nominees, not a specific hold, and Susan Collins is happy with Groves and working with Democrats to get him in place. In other Census news, the tinfoil-hat wingnuts intent on avoiding and/or lying to the Census have a high-profile supporter: Rep. Michele Bachmann, who says she won’t answer any questions on her form beyond number of people in her house. Because, y’know, if you told Uncle Sam how many bathrooms are in your house, ACORN might somehow win.

• Voting Rights: An interesting trio of voting rights bills passed committee in the House last week to little fanfare: most notably, the Universal Right to Vote by Mail Act (which guarantees no-excuse absentee voting in all states, something that’s still restricted in 22 states right now). Also passed were legislation providing grants to help states provide absentee ballot tracking and confirmation systems, and preventing state election officials from serving on federal campaign committees.

• MO-Sen: I’m not sure if Roy Blunt’s task just got easier or harder. Tom Schweich, a law professor and former ambassador, who started exploring the Missouri Senate race and landed some surprisingly hard blows on Blunt, yesterday decided not to run and instead endorsed Blunt. Schweich was a friend of moderate ex-Sen. John Danforth and was understood to be something of a Danforth proxy in the race. So Blunt should be happy to be free of that challenge, right? No, because he’s still likely to face a challenge from former Treasurer Sarah Steelman, who hasn’t formally announced her candidacy but has been stepping up her attacks on Blunt as an unprincipled insider. Without Schweich in there splitting the outsider anti-Blunt vote, Steelman becomes more viable.

• FL-Sen: Here’s an endorsement from a key player for Rep. Kendrick Meek: he was endorsed by Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who’s recently been associated with possibly running in FL-25 or for Lt. Gov. next year. Another interesting Meek tidbit that just came out: Meek has gotten more tobacco industry money than anyone else in the 2010 election cycle (more than, say, Jim Bunning or Richard Burr). Meek has close ties with the Tampa-based cigarmaking industry.

• OH-Gov: What’s that? An endorsement from a puny mortal like Manny Diaz? Screw that, because John Kasich just got an endorsement from Chuck Norris. (Which is odd, because I thought the fact was that Chuck Norris didn’t endorse politicians; politicians endorse Chuck Norris.) Ted Strickland was reportedly last seen running in terror on the shoulder of I-70, trying to get out of Ohio before sunset.

• CA-03: A second credible Dem has gotten into the race against the newly-vulnerable Rep. Dan Lungren in this R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs. Bill Slaton, director of the Sacramento Municipal Utility District (and overseer of the electrial grid for 1.5 million people), filed to enter the race, joining confusingly-named fellow Dem (and Elk Grove city councilor) Gary Davis.

• CT-04: The GOP has landed an interesting challenger to go against freshman Rep. Jim Himes: 24-year-old Will Gregory, a “young, fiscally conservative, socially moderate Republican” activist who applied for a White House job during the Bush administration and, when asked to name two administration policies he agreed with, couldn’t provide an answer. State Senate minority leader John McKinney also seems likely to get in the race for the GOP and would bring a bit more, um, gravitas.

• NY-29: Tom Reed, the mayor of Corning, New York, announced that he won’t run for a second turn but that he was looking at another public service opportunity that he couldn’t be specific about, but that sounded suspiciously like running in the 29th against freshman Rep. Eric Massa.

• FL-Ag. Comm.: Ordinarily even we at SSP wouldn’t get so far down into the weeds as to post results of a poll of the GOP primary for the Florida Agriculture Commission race, but the results are too unbelievable to pass up… unbelievably funny, that is. The idea that the guy who used to be #3 on the House leadership ladder would try to demote himself to Florida Agriculture Commissioner is odd enough, but Rep. Adam Putnam is trailing a state Senator, Carey Baker, 26-17, in that race.

• NY-St. Senate: As everyone sits and waits to see whether state Senator Hiram Monserrate should stay or go (he’s vacillating on his coup participation, meaning the whole thing turns on him now), two interesting new developments. One is that the coup may lead to ouster of Dem leader Malcolm Smith and his replacement with John Sampson, who apparently has a better relationship with the dissidents. Also, there’s buzz (though nothing confirmed) that Barack Obama himself has been on the phone with not just Monserrate and Pedro Espada, trying to get them back into the fold, but also with Darrel Aubertine (although it’s unclear whether Obama would encourage Aubertine to stay in the Senate as the Dems try to get their narrow edge back or to get into the NY-23 race that Obama opened up for him by promoting John McHugh).

I’ve been saving the changes in registration differences in the competitive districts that I track in my regular registration number updates. Here I will show the changes in registration going from the last numbers before the 2008 election to the latest numbers released a few days ago. Here they are in tabulated form. And for the congressional districts, in addition to the 8 Obama-Republican districts, I tossed in CA-04, because the House race there was very close in spite of the considerable Republican advantage in registration and the presidential race, and CA-46, the district of McCain’s closest win of the 11 McCain districts and the only one that he won with less than 50%.

Cross-posted at Calitics.

Numbers are over the flip.

CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS

District	10-08 DIFF	02-09 DIFF	03-09 DIFF	05-09 DIFF
CA-03	R+2.19%	R+1.93%	R+1.91%	R+1.85%
CA-04	R+14.88%	R+14.68%	R+14.64%	R+14.69%
CA-24	R+6.40%	R+6.13%	R+6.04%	R+5.99%
CA-25	R+2.37%	R+1.68%	R+1.63%	R+1.52%
CA-26	R+5.57%	R+4.96%	R+4.92%	R+4.83%
CA-44	R+8.25%	R+7.52%	R+7.68%	R+7.77%
CA-45	R+4.60%	R+3.98%	R+3.99%	R+4.27%
CA-46	R+12.16%	R+11.79%	R+11.57%	R+11.47%
CA-48	R+16.12%	R+15.78%	R+15.46%	R+15.37%
CA-50	R+9.20%	R+8.90%	R+8.98%	R+8.87%

STATE SENATE DISTRICTS

District	10-08 DIFF	02-09 DIFF	03-09 DIFF	05-09 DIFF
SD-04	R+11.11%	R+11.05%	R+11.05%	R+11.10%
SD-12	D+13.92%	D+14.32%	D+14.37%	D+14.66%
SD-16	D+16.21%	D+16.53%	D+16.46%	D+16.49%
SD-18	R+16.01%	R+15.70%	R+15.67%	R+15.74%
SD-22	D+43.91%	D+44.21%	D+44.24%	D+44.35%
SD-24	D+31.96%	D+32.46%	D+32.39%	D+32.59%
SD-34	D+8.18%	D+8.63%	D+9.24%	D+9.39%
SD-36	R+17.49%	R+17.11%	R+17.19%	R+17.12%
SD-40	D+16.13%	D+16.84%	D+16.94%	D+17.07%

STATE ASSEMBLY DISTRICTS

District	10-08 DIFF	02-09 DIFF	03-09 DIFF	05-09 DIFF
AD-03	R+5.44%	R+5.37%	R+5.34%	R+5.45%
AD-05	R+1.23%	R+0.89%	R+0.87%	R+0.87%
AD-07	D+28.72%	D+29.11%	D+29.09%	D+29.09%
AD-09	D+37.61%	D+37.89%	D+37.93%	D+37.99%
AD-10	R+0.43%	R+0.11%	R+0.07%	D+0.01%
AD-15	D+3.96%	D+4.45%	D+4.51%	D+4.57%
AD-20	D+28.16%	D+28.43%	D+28.48%	D+28.44%
AD-21	D+20.26%	D+20.32%	D+20.39%	D+20.52%
AD-23	D+32.24%	D+32.39%	D+32.32%	D+32.29%
AD-25	R+5.51%	R+5.48%	R+5.46%	R+5.51%
AD-26	D+2.31%	D+2.76%	D+2.82%	D+2.83%
AD-30	D+9.81%	D+9.89%	D+9.65%	D+9.69%
AD-31	D+14.62%	D+15.12%	D+15.23%	D+15.30%
AD-33	R+4.81%	R+4.83%	R+4.86%	R+4.77%
AD-35	D+19.86%	D+20.26%	D+20.29%	D+20.34%
AD-36	R+0.05%	D+0.83%	D+0.91%	D+1.18%
AD-37	R+5.95%	R+5.62%	R+5.54%	R+5.47%
AD-38	R+3.76%	R+3.21%	R+3.18%	R+3.06%
AD-47	D+53.60%	D+53.67%	D+53.66%	D+53.67%
AD-50	D+45.03%	D+45.68%	D+45.71%	D+45.87%
AD-63	R+3.11%	R+2.59%	R+2.45%	R+2.37%
AD-64	R+5.98%	R+5.35%	R+5.72%	R+6.03%
AD-65	R+4.54%	R+3.92%	R+3.94%	R+4.82%
AD-68	R+9.27%	R+8.89%	R+8.43%	R+8.36%
AD-70	R+13.94%	R+13.61%	R+13.30%	R+13.16%
AD-74	R+11.11%	R+10.74%	R+10.79%	R+10.65%
AD-75	R+9.23%	R+9.07%	R+9.17%	R+9.08%
AD-76	D+14.91%	D+15.16%	D+15.07%	D+15.09%
AD-78	D+10.97%	D+11.50%	D+11.55%	D+11.62%
AD-80	D+7.82%	D+8.63%	D+8.84%	D+9.09%

With the release of the new registration numbers, and a couple of special elections just around the corner, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts, as well as the eight Obama-Republican districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each district.

Breaking news: We now have a (albeit slight) registration advantage in AD-10!

And an edit: I am including CA-04 in the list because of McClintock’s less-than-1% win, even though the presidential race and registration gap are not particularly close.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	37.73%	39.58%	R+1.85	O+0.5
CA-04	Tom McClintock	31.14%	45.83%	R+14.69	M+10.1
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.83%	41.82%	R+5.99	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.77%	39.29%	R+1.52	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.67%	40.50%	R+4.83	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.63%	42.40%	R+7.77	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.81%	42.08%	R+4.27	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.40%	44.77%	R+15.37	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.40%	40.27%	R+8.87	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.02%	44.12%	R+11.09	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.60%	32.94%	D+14.66	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.88%	47.62%	R+15.74	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.94%	46.06%	R+17.12	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.59%	33.10%	D+16.49	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	59.01%	14.66%	D+44.35	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.63%	21.04%	D+32.59	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.84%	33.45%	D+9.39	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.57%	29.50%	D+17.07	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.80%	40.25%	R+5.45	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.90%	38.77%	R+0.87	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.81%	42.32%	R+5.51	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.06%	39.23%	D+2.82	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.28%	36.59%	D+9.69	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.92%	40.69%	R+4.77	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.69%	38.51%	D+1.18	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.87%	41.34%	R+5.47	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.85%	39.91%	R+3.06	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	38.00%	40.37%	R+2.37	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	35.96%	41.99%	R+6.03	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	36.82%	41.64%	R+4.82	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.80%	41.16%	R+8.36	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.20%	43.36%	R+13.16	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.93%	41.58%	R+10.65	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.72%	39.80%	R+9.08	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.80%	23.71%	D+29.09	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.66%	18.67%	D+37.99	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.33%	39.32%	D+0.01	O+4.0
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.61%	36.04%	D+4.57	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.61%	20.17%	D+28.44	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.27%	26.75%	D+20.52	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.22%	18.93%	D+32.29	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.08%	33.78%	D+15.80	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.22%	27.88%	D+20.34	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.92%	11.25%	D+53.67	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	62.00%	16.13%	D+45.87	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.94%	26.85%	D+15.09	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.08%	31.46%	D+11.62	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.38%	36.29%	D+9.09	O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

Democrats have scored a legit recruit to take on imperiled GOP Rep. Dan Lungren. From the Sacramento Bee:

Gary Davis, first-term city councilman for Elk Grove, said he will formally announce his candidacy today for the 3rd Congressional District seat held by Republican Rep. Dan Lungren of Gold River.

Davis, who served as Elk Grove mayor in 2008, led a push for greater citizen involvement in city decision-making after his election to the council in 2006.

As a Democrat, he must win in the 2010 California Democratic primary to face Lungren in the general election.

Davis said he began considering a run for the federal seat in mid-2008 after Lungren declined to transmit $11.6 million in funding requests from the city to the subcommittee of the House Committee on Appropriations for consideration. At the time, the congressman’s staff said it was determined that Elk Grove’s requests were not likely to win approval.

Davis said his final decision to run came in recent weeks after Lungren voted against a bill to authorize grant money to put more cops on the street.

He called running “the right thing to do.”

Lungren’s 3rd District, once a GOP bastion that went for Bush by 17 points in 2004, has seen some pretty dramatic demographic changes in recent years. Much of its new growth has come from minority demographics, and that sea change is making its mark on the district’s voter registration composition.

By the end of 2004, Republicans held a voter registration advantage of 169,464 to the Democrats’ 139,848 in the 3rd District. Since then, the district has both hemorrhaged Republicans and added Democrats to its voter rolls; while Republicans still outnumber Democrats here, the margin has been cut to 161K-153K. The cherry on top, of course, was Barack Obama’s slim win of the district’s presidential vote last November, while Lungren himself only won his race by 5.5% against Democrat Bill Durston (who has opted not to seek a rematch this cycle).

Davis will still have to prove that he’s got chops, but with a base in the district’s major population anchor, he looks good on paper — and the broader political winds appear set to give him a fighting chance in 2010.

• NY-20: Scott Murphy gets sworn in today as the newest member of the House Democratic caucus. Congratulations! (D)

• PA-Sen: All of a sudden, the Pennsylvania GOP is beating a path to Jim Gerlach’s door to get him to consider jumping over to the Senate race, now that they’re stuck facing an Arlen Specter vs. Pat Toomey wipeout in the general election. (Gerlach has been associated with the open governor’s race, but is still in the exploratory stage.) Gerlach says “Don’t rule anything out.” The rather moderate and Philly-burbs-based Gerlach might face the same weaknesses in a closed primary against Toomey that Specter did, though (although Gerlach hasn’t been cultivating conservative ill-will for decades like Specter).

• OK-Gov: Stuart Rothenberg reports that ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is getting close to a decision on whether to run for the governor’s seat in Oklahoma, and that he’s likely to get in. This would pit him in a battle royale with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin for the GOP nod.

• CA-03: Here’s some proof that there’s a lot of blood in the water in the eight GOP-held House seats that Obama won in California: some pretty big sharks are sniffing out the races. Phil Angelides (the former treasurer, and loser of the 2006 governor’s race) is reportedly “taking a serious look” at a run against Dan Lungren in the Dem-trending R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs.

• OH-08: Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, widely known as an anti-immigration activist, may challenge House GOP leader John Boehner in a primary in this R+14 district. (D)

• CA-44: No surprise here, but Bill Hedrick, who held Rep. Ken Calvert to 51-49 in this R+6 Inland Empire seat last year, officially announced he’s back for another try. The Corona/Norco School Board chair can’t expect another under-the-radar surprise attack, but can expect a lot of DCCC help this time.

• RNC: Although he seems to have publicly escaped the NY-20 loss without calls for his head, the behind-the-scenes attempts to take down or at least circumvent Michael Steele continue. Some RNC members are proposing a new rule that would place new restrictions and oversight on Steele’s power of the purse-strings. (Seems like they might get better results if they sought better restrictions and oversight on Steele’s mouth instead.)

• Gay Marriage: I’m pleasantly surprised how fast gay marriage is gaining widespread acceptance and turning into a winning issue for us: a CBS/NYT poll finds 42% support nationwide for legalized gay marriage, with another 25% supporting civil unions and only 28% opposed to any legal recognition. 57% of those under age 40 support gay marriage.

• Census: Here’s another example of how there’s no such thing as a neutral and apolitical census: there’s a debate raging over the issue of where to count persons who are in prison. While the Census Bureau currently plans to continue its policy in 2010 of counting prisoners where they reside (often in rural counties where a sizable percentage of the population is incarcerated), civil rights groups and even NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg support counting them at their last known address… which would mean more funds, and a redistricting advantage, for major cities.

• History: For the history fans among us, the Senate’s website has profiles of all 20 previous Senate party-switchers. (Here’s a chapter from US History I’d completely forgotten about: more than one-third of these switches were western-state senators in the 1890s during the free silver movement.)

With the release of the new registration numbers, I now have updates for the open and/or competitive State Senate and State Assembly districts. The Secretary of State’s website has the presidential results by district, so I am including the presidential results in each districts.

I am also tacking on the eight districts that are our top targets in 2010: CA-03, CA-24, CA-25, CA-26, CA-44, CA-45, CA-48, and CA-50.

Cross-posted at Calitics and Democracy for California.

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
CA-03	Dan Lungren	37.72%	39.63%	R+1.91	O+0.5
CA-24	Elton Gallegly	35.84%	41.88%	R+6.04	O+2.8
CA-25	Buck McKeon	37.72%	39.35%	R+1.63	O+1.1
CA-26	David Dreier	35.64%	40.56%	R+4.92	O+4.0
CA-44	Ken Calvert	34.70%	42.38%	R+7.68	O+0.9
CA-45	Mary Bono Mack	37.97%	41.96%	R+3.99	O+4.6
CA-48	John Campbell	29.41%	44.87%	R+15.46	O+0.7
CA-50	Brian Bilbray	31.38%	40.36%	R+8.98	O+4.2

Competitive and/or open state legislature districts are over the flip…

Our current numbers in the Senate are 25 Democrats/15 Republicans, with winning 2 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3; and in the Assembly 51 Democrats/29 Republicans, with winning 3 GOP-held seats necessary for 2/3.

SENATE

Republicans (4)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-04	Sam Aanestad	33.05%	44.10%	R+11.05	M+11.8
SD-12	Jeff Denham	47.46%	33.09%	D+14.37	O+17.6
SD-18	Roy Ashburn	31.91%	47.58%	R+15.67	M+23.1
SD-36	Dennis Hollingsworth	28.94%	46.13%	R+17.19	M+14.2

Democrats (5)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
SD-16	Dean Florez	49.61%	33.15%	D+16.46	O+19.5
SD-22	Gilbert Cedillo	58.98%	14.74%	D+44.24	O+58.7
SD-24	Gloria Romero	53.62%	21.13%	D+32.49	O+41.3
SD-34	Lou Correa	42.82%	33.58%	D+9.24	O+16.8
SD-40	Denise Ducheny	46.59%	29.65%	D+16.94	O+25.7

ASSEMBLY

Republicans (16)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-03	Dan Logue	34.81%	40.15%	R+5.34	M+1.6
AD-05	Roger Niello	37.93%	38.80%	R+0.87	O+4.2
AD-25	Tom Berryhill	36.84%	42.30%	R+5.46	M+7.9
AD-26	Bill Berryhill	42.04%	39.22%	D+2.82	O+4.4
AD-30	Danny Gilmore	46.31%	36.66%	D+9.65	O+3.9
AD-33	Sam Blakeslee	35.91%	40.77%	R+4.86	O+1.4
AD-36	Steve Knight	39.56%	38.65%	D+0.91	O+0.8
AD-37	Audra Strickland	35.86%	41.40%	R+5.54	O+3.7
AD-38	Cameron Smyth	36.84%	40.02%	R+3.18	O+4.9
AD-63	Bill Emmerson	37.90%	40.35%	R+2.45	O+4.1
AD-64	Brian Nestande	36.11%	41.83%	R+5.72	O+1.8
AD-65	Paul Cook	37.14%	41.08%	R+3.94	M+4.1
AD-68	Van Tran	32.82%	41.25%	R+8.43	M+2.9
AD-70	Chuck DeVore	30.19%	43.49%	R+13.30	O+3.9
AD-74	Martin Garrick	30.89%	41.68%	R+10.79	O+2.2
AD-75	Nathan Fletcher	30.71%	39.88%	R+9.17	O+4.1

Democrats (15)

District	Incumbent	DEM	GOP	Margin	2008 Result
AD-07	Noreen Evans	52.81%	23.72%	D+29.09	O+43.3
AD-09	Dave Jones	56.64%	18.71%	D+37.93	O+49.0
AD-10	Alyson Huber	39.32%	39.39%	R+0.07	O+4.0
AD-11	Tom Torlakson	54.23%	22.06%	D+32.17	O+41.2
AD-15	Joan Buchanan	40.60%	36.09%	D+4.51	O+16.9
AD-20	Alberto Torrico	48.65%	20.17%	D+18.48	O+42.3
AD-21	Ira Ruskin	47.22%	26.83%	D+20.39	O+45.8
AD-23	Joe Coto	51.28%	18.96%	D+32.32	O+44.4
AD-31	Juan Arambula	49.07%	33.84%	D+15.23	O+26.1
AD-35	Pedro Nava	48.24%	27.95%	D+20.29	O+35.6
AD-47	Karen Bass	64.93%	11.27%	D+53.66	O+71.9
AD-50	Hector De La Torre	61.92%	16.21%	D+45.71	O+55.9
AD-76	Lori Saldaña	41.96%	26.89%	D+15.07	O+34.4
AD-78	Martin Block	43.09%	31.54%	D+11.55	O+21.8
AD-80	Manuel Perez	45.33%	36.49%	D+8.84	O+20.7

In the Senate, our obvious plan of action is to win the 12th and possibly the 4th if we have a strong candidate, and hold the 34th. In the Assembly, we have a lot of offense opportunities and of course, we will need to defend our 4 freshmen in vulnerable districts (Huber especially, Buchanan, Block, Perez). As for the potentially vulnerable Republican districts we should target, we should prioritize them like this:

(I) Open seats in Obama districts: 5, 33, 37, 63, 70

(II) Incumbents in Obama districts: 26, 30, 36, 38, 64, 74, 75

(III) Open seat in McCain district with small (<6%) registration edge: 25

(IV) Incumbents in McCain districts with small (<6%) registration edge: 3, 65

(V) Other open seat: 68

It’s looking increasingly obvious that we have major opportunities opening up nationwide. We have a real chance to expand our Democratic majority in Congress beyond our wildest dreams (back in 2007) while also winning back The White House with Barack Obama. That’s why it’s critical that we take action NOW to take advantage of this unique opportunity we have now.

Want to see where I’m looking?  

Well, let’s start with a race that’s suddenly jumped onto the national radar. Let’s talk about California’s 46th District. I’ve been working this district for a while now, as I live just blocks away from the district boundary. I can’t emphasize enough how good a chance Debbie Cook has to win. I’ve walked the district everywhere from Santa Ana to Long Beach to Costa Mesa to Catalina. I’ve talked to Republicans who are ready to vote for Debbie and Democrats who are excited now like they’ve never been excited before. Now’s our chance to turn this red district blue.

Let’s talk about the 44th District. This race may still be under the radar, but we shouldn’t be ignoring Bill Hedrick. The Republican registration gap has narrowed dramatically, the Inland Empire has been shifting gradually to Democrats, and we have a great candidate running in Corona-Norco School Board Member Bill Hedrick. He’s been winning in a “red district” before, so let’s not underestimate him now.

And of course, we have even more special opportunities in California today. Both Bill Durston in CA-03 (Suburban Sacramento) and Nick Leibham in CA-50 (Suburban San Diego) are in a dead heat against the Republican incumbents. Charlie Brown in CA-04 (Exurban Sacramento) remains poised to send Carpetbagger Tom McClintock packing to the next race he’ll file for. Even supposedly safe Republicans like Mary Bono Mack in CA-45 (Palm Springs Area) are now feeling the heat!

So what can we do to make California bluer? Give! I mean it… Give!

We’re only two weeks away from victory. How big do you want it? Well, we can make it big here in California. Are you ready to make it happen?