Tag: AR-Sen

Has anybody heard anything about there being an election of some sort today? I’ll look into it, but this is the first I’ve heard. In the meantime…

• AR-Sen (pdf): Talk Business Quarterly had a strange poll earlier in the year where they had a huge disparity between Blanche Lincoln’s favorables (mediocre) and her re-elect (terrible), and now they’re back with another poll showing pretty much the same thing. Her favorable is 42/46, but she gets a 25/61 on the oddly worded question “Would you vote to re-elect Blanche Lincoln as your United States Senator no matter who ran against her?” Gov. Mike Beebe doesn’t have much to worry about, though; he may be the nation’s most popular politico these days, with a favorable of 71/15.

• NC-Sen: Research 2000 did another poll on behalf of Change Congress, this time looking at North Carolina. They see the same pattern as PPP and most other pollsters: tepid re-elect numbers for Burr (21 re-elect/45 someone new, with 39/46 favorables), but a decent lead for Burr against SoS Elaine Marshall (42-35) and Rep. Bobby Etheridge (43-35).

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One last poll straggled across the finish line yesterday afternoon, from Fairleigh Dickinson University. They give Jon Corzine a 43-41-8 edge over Chris Christie and Chris Daggett, but it’s a very large timeframe (Oct. 22 to Nov. 1). Unusually, this incorporates the smaller sample that was the basis for the standalone poll that FDU released over the weekend (which was in the field from Oct. 22 to Oct. 28) had a topline of 41-39-14 for Christie)… which is good news, I suppose, as it showed either movement to Corzine in the last few days or just that more Corzine voters were picking up their phones over the weekend, but a strange technique (why not release the Oct. 29-Nov. 1 data as a separate poll?). Because of the sample overlap, Pollster.com didn’t add this one to the pile, leaving their final regression line total at a remarkable 42.0-42.0.

Meanwhile, this being Jersey, both parties are engaged in some last-minute chicanery: the Democrats are reportedly robocalling Republicans to encourage them to vote for Daggett, while Republicans are seeing what we’re all seeing — a race that’s within a percentage or two, and one that’s possibly to be decided in the post-game of recounts and even litigation — and are getting a jump on the post-election framing by leveling allegations of ‘election fraud’ (without proof, or even specifics, of course).

• TX-Gov, TX-Sen: The first Univ. of Texas/Texas Tribune poll of the GOP gubernatorial primary gives a bigger edge to incumbent Rick Perry than other pollsters have; he leads Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison 42-30, with a surprisingly large 7% going to Debra Medina from the party’s Paulist contingent. (Rasmussen has the most recent poll of the race, from September, and actually found KBH ahead, 40-38.) On the Democratic side, they find only chaos, with Kinky Friedman actually in the lead with 19, followed by Tom Schieffer at 10, Ronnie Earle at 5, and Hank Gilbert at 3. In the general, Perry is surprisingly vulnerable to Generic D (34-33, with 8 going to “Generic third party”), while Hutchison performs better (36-25, with 9 to third party) against Generic D. Against actual human Democrats, though, Perry seems safe (beating Friedman 38-23 and Schieffer 36-25).

They also look at the Senate race that may or may not ever happen and get more inconclusive results; polling all participants together in one pool, they find Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Democratic Houston mayor Bill White tied at 13 each, followed by Democrat John Sharp at 10 and a gaggle of other Republicans, none of whom break 3. Here’s the poll’s one heartening tidbit: Barack Obama actually has a better favorable (41/52) than either Perry (36/44) or Hutchison (39/27).

• MD-04: Here’s one more potential challenge to Rep. Donna Edwards in the safely Democratic 4th. (Delegate Herman Taylor is already scoping out the primary.) Prince George’s County State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey, a former senior staffer on the Hill, is now considering a run in the Dem primary too. The bulk of the district’s votes are in mostly-black Prince George’s County in the DC suburbs. It sounds like members of the local business community are looking for a more establishment challenge to the fiercely progressive Edwards.

• NY-23: New York State, the last state in the nation to comply with the Help America Vote Act, is finally switching over to optical scan machines from its ancient (but awesome) lever machines. The 2009 election is just a “pilot” run, so the entire state hasn’t adopted the new machines yet, but most of the counties which make up the 23rd CD have. This means one of two things: results will come in more quickly than usual thanks to speedier and more reliable equipment… or results will come in more slowly that usual, thanks to the inevitable learning curve. (D)

Meanwhile, this seemed inevitable: overzealous electioneering by revved-up teabaggers. Police have been called to several locations in the North Country for violations of the 100-foot polling barrier by rabid Doug Hoffman fans.

• SC-05: Republican State Sen. Mick Mulvaney today made official his race against veteran Democratic Rep. John Spratt. Mulvaney is one of Mark Sanford’s closest allies, so in the next year expect to see lots of the photo that’s at this link.

• Mayors: One last mayoral poll out, in a close race between two different flavors of progressive. Joe Mallahan leads Mike McGinn 45-43 in the Seattle mayoral race, according to SurveyUSA. SurveyUSA also finds Democrat Dow Constantine surging into a comfortable lead over stealth Republican Susan Hutchison in the King County Executive race, 53-43. Previous SUSA polls had given a small edge to Hutchison, suggesting that a lot of voters weren’t paying much attention yet and hadn’t found out that she was a Republican.

• Illinois Filings: Yesterday was the filing deadline in Illinois, and lots more names trickled in after yesterday’s digest. For starters, we actually did get a Dem on the ballot in IL-06 (and all the other GOP-held House districts), although it really seems to be Some Dude: the heretofore unknown Benjamin Lowe. In IL-07, more electeds eventually showed up, in addition to state Sen. Rickey Hendon. So too did alderwoman Sharon Dixon, alderman Bob Fioretti, and former state Rep. Annazette Collins. And I’m left wondering about the weird saga of Patrick Hughes, the great wingnut hope in the Senate race; after rumors of not having enough signatures, he withdrew around 10 am yesterday, but then filed again after 4 pm. Most likely that was a ploy to get the last line on the ballot (which was why Cheryle Jackson waited so long to file on the Democratic side) — but I’m preferring to envision a scenario where he had to hold a benefit show to scrape together those last few signatures, then rush back to Chicago along Lower Wacker Drive, trashing about 80 police cars while trying to get to the Cook County Assessor’s Office Board of Elections before it closed.

• Teabaggers: Could it be that the legacy media are finally noticing that the rise of the teabaggers, as seen in their decapitation of the Republican establishment candidate in NY-23, could spell only deeper trouble for Republicans in 2010? Politico and Roll Call both take notice today, that this dynamic is poised to repeat itself in the crucial Senate race in Florida… and, for that matter, Connecticut, Kentucky, New Hampshire, Nevada, Missouri, Arkansas, Colorado, and Illinois. In fact, the real question may be: where are the Senate races where there won’t be a hot establishment/movement Republican primary? (Weirdly, Pennsylvania may be that place, where running the teabagger that nobody loved may actually turn out to be an asset for the GOP.)

• Babka: Hey! Do you want not just bragging rights among your fellow electoral junkies, but also a delicious chocolate babka? Don’t forget to submit your entries in the SSP elections prediction contest! Do it in the prediction thread, though, not in the digest, at least if you want it to count.

PINCH HITTER EDITION.

• AR-Sen: A new R2K poll for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy For America is yet another bad omen for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln: she’s only beating state Sen. Gilbert Baker by a 41-39 margin.

• NC-Sen: An Elon University poll finds GOP Sen. Richard Burr with crappy re-elects (19-42), while the latest Civitas poll shows Burr leading Democrat Elaine Marshall by 43-33.

• CA-10: In yet another sign that the Democratic base is taking a prolonged ganja break, Democrat John Garamendi, California’s Lt. Governor, is only leading Republican David Harmer by 50-40 in SurveyUSA’s final poll of the race. Obama won this CD by a 65-33 margin last year.

• FL-02: Republicans have added a second challenger to the mix against Blue Dog Allen Boyd. Attorney Charlie Ranson is joining funeral home chain-owner Steve Southerland in the GOP primary.

• NY-23: Under normal circumstances, I would have said that ex-Gov. George Pataki was breaking ranks by endorsing Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman over Republican DeDe Scozzafava, but considering that RNC Chair Michael Steele came out today tacitly cheering Hoffman on, it seems that the GOP establishment itself is leaving Scozzafava out in the cold. Democrats, meanwhile, have deployed Joe Biden to campaign with Bill Owens in South Memphis Watertown on Monday.

• VA-05: The GOP field taking on frosh Dem Rep. Tom Perriello has gotten a little bit slimmer today, as “grassroots” candidate Bradley Rees is attempting to switch his candidacy over to the Virginia Conservative Party ticket. In any event, get a good look at this guy’s mug.

• SC-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, a guy with few friends in the Republican establishment, has just opened up a gubernatorial campaign account. I guess we can expect a formal announcement soon.

• Congress: Tons of lawmakers, including quite a few in bright blue jumpsuits, are under investigation for ethical misconduct.

• Midterms: Joe Lieberman is still an asshole, in case you have forgotten. The Rave Master himself says that he expects to share some of his Joementum with GOP candidates next year through his personal endorsement.

• Voting: Chuck Schumer’s legislation mandating that military and overseas voters get at least 45 days to return their ballots came into force as part of the defense spending bill that President Obama signed into law on Wednesday. As we noted previously, this could force a number of states to push their primaries earlier. Green Papers has a list of potentially affected states. (D)

• AR-Sen: Another day, another random conservative guy running for the Senate in Arkansas. Today, it’s the turn for Stanley Reed, the former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau and former president of the University of Arkansas board of trustees, who says he’s considering the race for the Republican nod. (H/t CongressDaily.)

• FL-Sen: The Police Benevolent Association, friendly with Charlie Crist from his law-and-order days as Attorney General, commissioned a poll via McLaughlin & Associates that paints a slightly rosier picture of Crist’s race against Marco Rubio than we’ve seen from several other pollsters last week. They find Crist up against Rubio 53-29, with a 67% approval.

• IA-Sen: It looks like Christie Vilsack (the former Iowa first lady, and political heavyweight in her own right) won’t be challenging Chuck Grassley after all. She’d sounded receptive to the idea in the last few weeks, but today she’s telling the Des Moines Register that she won’t run. Lawyer and former gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin had sounded close to running last week, so the ball’s in Conlin’s court now.

• LA-Sen: Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is the only prominent Republican left who hasn’t ruled out a challenge to David Vitter in the Republican primary, and, although he hasn’t taken any steps, he’s still not shutting the door on it. Last week on a radio show he confirmed that he hasn’t ruled it out. While a primary between the two hasn’t been polled since March (with Vitter leading 43-32), a recent poll had Dardenne overperforming Vitter against Charlie Melancon in the general.

• MA-Sen: A poll of the Democratic primary, from Western New England College Polling Institute, in the special election in Massachusetts finds that AG Martha Coakley is still in the driver’s seat, but that some of her competitors are gaining ground as they get better-known. Coakley is at 37, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca at 14 (that’s what spending all that money on ads will get you), Rep. Michael Capuano at 13, and City Year founder Alan Khazei at 4. The general election is shaping up to be a non-event, as Coakley beats Republican state Sen. Scott Brown 58-32 and Capuano beats him 49-33.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold finally has a noteworthy challenger: Terrence Wall, a Madison-area real estate developer who seems to have lots of money, although he’s never been elected before and it’s not clear what poltical skills he brings to the table. Wall is a frequent GOP donor, although he’s also given money to his local Dem, Rep. Tammy Baldwin.

• MI-Gov: Rasmussen took a look at the Michigan governor’s race, but without a clear sense of who the nominees will be, they just did a generic ballot test. Generic R leads Generic D by only a point, 37-36 — suggesting that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who hasn’t polled well in general election matchups, is underperforming Generic D. Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm’s approval is 40/60.

• NJ-Gov: Suffolk University takes its first poll of the New Jersey governor’s race, and while it would be nice to say this was the new reality, it’s probably more likely an outlier: Jon Corzine leads Chris Christie 42-33, with Chris Daggett pulling in 7. Suffolk did an interesting experiment: they listed all 12 minor candidates, and they ate a bit into Daggett’s numbers, pulling in a cumulative 3%. Corzine also has surprisingly high favorables, at 45/46, with Christie at 34/46. Monmouth, however, explains what might have happened with this sample (apparently a simple mistake that out-of-state pollsters often make): Suffolk weighted party ID by registration, but because of NJ’s semi-open primary system, many unaffiliateds are actually partisan and should be polled as such.

Meanwhile, with most polls still pointing to a tossup, Barack Obama is back for one more rally with Corzine next weekend. Chris Christie can ill-afford one more scandal in the news, but that seems to be happening anyway, as stories about his seemingly politically-motivated hiring of the son of Christie patron and mentor Herbert Stern as an assistant US Attorney, despite Stern Jr.’s mediocre interviews.

• NY-Gov: This is the kind of courtesy call you don’t really want — the kind that says “I’m taking the job you want.” According to the NY Post’s Fred Dicker (so add salt according to taste), Andrew Cuomo contacted Rudy Giuliani through intermediaries to let him know that he will, in no uncertain terms, be running for Governor.

• CA-11: One more Republican sounds like he’s ready to join the strangely crowded field to go up against Rep. Jerry McNerney next year. Former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram says he’ll move into the district to take on McNerney — but it seems like he may want to do a little research before getting too committed, as he claimed that McNerney is weak because he was just swept in as part of the “Obama wave.” (McNerney, of course, was first elected in 2006.)

• FL-19: The special election in the 19th is shaping up to be pretty uneventful: over the weekend, not only did outgoing Rep. Robert Wexler endorse state Sen. Peter Ted Deutch to take over for him, but so too did everyone else representing the Gold Coast: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Ron Klein, and Alcee Hastings.

• MI-02: A whole lot of Dutch-American conservative Republicans are jostling to take over from Rep. Peter Hoekstra in the solidly-red 2nd, and one of the field’s heavy hitters made his entry official: state Sen. Wayne Kuipers. He faces former state Rep. Bill Huizenga, former NFL player Jay Riemersma, and businessman Bill Cooper.

• NY-23 (pdf): There have been rumors of private polls out there given a small lead to third-party Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in the 23rd, and now his sponsors at the Club for Growth have openly released one. Basswood Research finds Hoffman in the lead with 31, with Democrat Bill Owens at 27 and Republican Dede Scozzafava lagging at 20, with 22 undecided (although with a huge 6% MoE, anything could be happening). That must have something to do with the DCCC’s new strategy; their new negative ad is going after Hoffman, rather than Scozzafava. Also, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty finally got off the fence and decided to throw his lot in with the movement: he endorsed Hoffman.

• NY-24: The New York Times, in a broader piece on GOP targeting of New York House Democrats, has an interesting tidbit we hadn’t seen before: the GOP is trying to coax Michael Richard Hanna, the businessman who performed surprisingly well against Rep. Mike Arcuri last year, into a rematch.

• KY-St. Sen.: We’re moving one step closer to another vacant seat and special election in Kentucky’s Senate (which is controlled 21-17 by Republicans right now). Republican Dan Kelly was nominated for a state circuit court position, and he just needs Gov. Steve Beshear’s approval to get the job. Competitors are already lining up for the special, including Republican state Rep. Jimmy Higdon and Democratic former state Rep. Jodie Haydon. (In case you were wondering if Kentucky, which votes for statewide offices in odd-numbered years, is having legislative elections next week, the answer is no; state legislators are still elected in even-numbered years.)

• VA-St. House: One more good piece in the diaries breaking down the individual races in Virginia’s House of Delegates into Tossup, Lean, and Likely, thanks to our Johnny Longtorso. One particularly interesting race is the 51st District in exurban Prince William County, where Republican Rich Anderson, challenging Dem incumbent Paul Nichols in a very competitive race, may face criminal charges for giving out Nichols’ Social Security number on a mailer to over 15,000 area residents.

• ME-Init: Another poll from Pan Atlantic SMS of Question 1 in Maine on gay marriage. They find 42 yes and 53 no (with “no” being a vote in favor of continuing gay marriage), not much changed from their September poll (43-52) but the most optimistic numbers we’ve seen yet here.

• Mayors: In New York City, Quinnipiac finds incumbent Michael Bloomberg (the $85 million man) with a sizable edge against Democratic comptroller William Thompson, leading 53-35 with a lead in every borough. (Not much change from 52-36 a month ago.) In what looks to be the first poll of the Atlanta mayoral race, SurveyUSA finds city councilor Mary Norwood with a big lead, although not quite enough to avoid a runoff with the 2nd place finisher. Norwood is at 46%, followed by state Sen. Kasim Reed at 26% and city councilor Lisa Borders at 17%. Norwood leads 6:1 among whites, independents, and Republicans; Reed leads among African-Americans. Also worth a read is a piece from our own diaries about major (and minor) mayoral races from elections09, which gets into the weeds on some tight races not on anybody’s national radar screen (with Vancouver, WA and Stamford, CT as particularly interesting examples).

• AR-Sen: With Blanche Lincoln already facing the vague possibility of a primary challenge from her right from Arkansas Senate President Bob Johnson, now there are rumors that she might face a primary challenge from what passes for the left in Arkansas, from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter. Halter would focus on Lincoln’s health-care related foot-dragging, but apparently has a track record of threatening to run for higher office and then not following through, so this, like Johnson’s bid, may amount to a big bowl of nothing.

• HI-Sen: Congratulations to Senator Daniel Inouye, who today becomes the third-longest-serving Senator in history and, adding in his House tenure, the fifth-longest-serving Congressperson. The 85-year-old Inouye has been in the Senate for almost 47 years. Inouye passed Ted Kennedy today, and will pass Strom Thurmond in another eight months, but is still chasing Robert Byrd. (Unfortunately, Inouye may be spending his special day being a jerk, by trying to remove Al Franken‘s anti-rape amendment from the defense appropriations bill.)

• KY-Sen: Feeling the heat from Rand Paul in the GOP Senate primary in Kentucky, establishment choice Trey Grayson played the “you ain’t from around these parts, are you?” card, calling himself a “5th generation Kentuckian” and Texas-born Paul an “outsider.” (Of course, by implication, doesn’t that make Grayson the… “insider?” Not exactly the banner you want to run under in 2010.)

• LA-Sen: David Vitter spent several days as the lone high-profile politician in Louisiana to not join in the condemnation of Keith Bardwell, the justice of the peace who refused to marry an interracial couple. Given the uselessness of his response, he might as well not have bothered — Vitter’s spokesperson still didn’t condemn Bardwell, merely rumbling about how “all judges should follow the law as written” and then trying to turn the subject to Mike Stark’s Vitter-stalking.

• AL-Gov: This is a good endorsement for Ron Sparks, but it’s also interesting because it’s so racially fraught: former Birmingham mayor Richard Arrington, the first African-American to be elected that city’s mayor in 1979, endorsed Sparks instead of African-American Rep. Artur Davis Jr. in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. Arrington puts it: “I think if we are ever to move forward, across racial lines in this state, we have got to begin to trust each other, work with each other, and I think Ron Sparks can be the kind of governor that helps to make that possible.”

• FL-Gov: Rasmussen released part III of its Florida extravaganza, finding that Republican AG Bill McCollum leads Democratic CFO Alex Sink 46-35. (This is the same sample that had Marco Rubio overperforming Charlie Crist against Kendrick Meek.)

• IA-Gov: Ex-Governor Terry Branstad’s Republican primary rivals aren’t going to go away quietly. Bob vander Plaats attacked Branstad on his insufficient conservatism, ranging from sales tax increases during his tenure, choosing a pro-choice running mate in 1994, and even fundraising for Nebraska’s Ben Nelson.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): One more poll out today, from Rutgers-Eagleton, finds Jon Corzine with a small lead. Corzine leads Chris Christie and Chris Daggett 39-36-20. This is the first poll to find Daggett breaking the 20% mark; also, with the addition of this poll to the heap, it pushes Corzine into the lead in Pollster.com and Real Clear Politics’ regression lines.

• OR-Gov: Two different candidates have suspended their campaigns due to family health problems. One is pretty high-profile: state Sen. Jason Atkinson, who was initially considered to have the inside track toward the GOP nomination in Oregon but who had, in the last few days, been the subject of dropout speculation. (Could this mean that Allen Alley might actually somehow wind up with the nomination?) The other is John Del Arroz, a businessman who had put a fair amount of his own money into a run in the Republican field in CA-11. Best wishes to both of them.

• RI-Gov: While conventional wisdom has seen ex-Republican ex-Senator and likely independent candidate Lincoln Chafee as having a strong shot at capturing the state house by dominating the middle, he’s running into big a problem in terms of poor fundraising. He’s only sitting on $180K, compared with Democratic state Treasurer Frank Caprio’s $1.5 million; that’s what happens when you don’t have a party infrastructure to help bolster the efforts.

• CT-04: While it’s not an explicit endorsement, Betsi Shays, the wife of ex-Rep. Chris Shays, gave $500 to state Sen. Rob Russo last quarter. Russo faces off a more conservative state Senate colleague, Dan Debicella, for the GOP nod to go against freshman Rep. Jim Himes.

• IL-14: Cross out Bill Cross from the list. With Ethan Hastert and state Sen. Randy Hultgren probably consuming most of the race’s oxygen, the former Aurora alderman announced that he wouldn’t be running in the crowded GOP primary field in the 14th to take on Democratic Rep. Bill Foster after all.

• LA-03: Houma attorney Ravi Sangisetty announced his run for the Democratic nomination for the open seat left behind by Charlie Melancon. He’s the first Dem to jump into the race, but certainly not expected to be the only one. He’s already sitting on $130K cash.

• PA-11: After a long period of silence, Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta has re-emerged and sources close to him are saying it’s “highly likely” he’ll try another run at Rep. Paul Kanjorski, who narrowly beat him in 2008. Barletta is encouraged by the lack of presidential coattails and the primary challenge to Kanjorski by Lackawanna County Commissioner Corey O’Brien — although it’s possible that, if O’Brien emerges from the primary, he might perform better in the general than the rust-covered Kanjorski.

• NJ-St. Ass.: If you haven’t already, check out NJCentrist’s diary, filled with lots of local color, on the upcoming elections in New Jersey’s state Assembly. Republicans seem poised to pick up a couple seats in south Jersey, which would bring them closer but leave the Dems still in control.

• State Legislatures: Another fascinating graphic from 538.com, this one about the ideological makeups of various state legislatures. Apparently, political scientists have found a DW/Nominate-style common-space method of ranking all state legislators. The reason this is brought up is because of NY-23 candidate Dede Scozzafava, who it turns out is pretty near the center of New York legislative Republicans, not the flaming liberal she’s made out to be, although that puts her near the nationwide center of all state legislators, because NY Republicans are still, believe it or not, pretty centrist on the whole. There’s plenty else to see on the chart, including how Mississippi and Louisiana Democrats (who control their legislatures) are still to the right of New York and New England Republicans, and how (unsurprisingly, at least to me) California and Washington are the states with the simultaneously most-liberal Democrats and most-conservative Republicans.

• Mayors: In New York, incumbent Michael Bloomberg is holding on to a double-digit lead according to Marist, beating Democratic comptroller William Thompson 52-36 (with Thompson down from 52-43 last month). In Seattle, Joe Mallahan is opening up a lead over Mike McGinn according to SurveyUSA, 43-36, compared with a 38-38 tie three weeks ago. (The Seattle race is nonpartisan and both are very liberal by the rest of the country’s standards, but Seattle politics tends to be fought on a downtown interests/neighborhoods divide, and this race is turning into no exception as the previously amorphous Mallahan is consolidating most of the city’s business and labor support.)

• Nassau Co. Exec: Candidates slamming each other over ticky-tacky financial mistakes like unpaid liens is commonplace, but it’s not commonplace when the unpaid liens add up to almost a million dollars. Republican Nassau County Executive candidate Ed Mangano has a whopping $900K liens against property owned by his family business. (Nassau County is the western part of Long Island’s suburbs.)

• Fundraising: CQ has one more slice-and-dice of the third quarter fundraising information, listing the  biggest self-funders so far this year. Top of the list is Joan Buchanan, who already lost the Democratic primary in the CA-10 special election, who gave herself $1.1 million. In 2nd place is Republican Brad Goehring, running in CA-11 and self-funder to the tune of $650K; 7 of the list of 10 are Republicans.

Benenson Strategy Group (D) for the DSCC (10/5-7, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 50

Gilbert Baker (R): 37

Don’t know: 13

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 51

Kim Hendren (R): 37

Don’t know: 12

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Polls have truly been all over the place on this race so far — in recent months, Rasmussen found incumbent Blanche Lincoln in DOA territory, PPP found Lincoln neck-and-neck with her little-known opponents, and R2K found her with tolerable but sub-50% leads. Now, along comes a DSCC-commissioned poll that finds Lincoln with a double-digit advantage, even against her ostensibly toughest challenger, state Sen. Gilbert Baker.

Lincoln also clocks in with a 50% favorable, and 68% agreeing with the platitude that the new Agriculture chair “gets things done for Arkansas.” Even if this poll turns out to be a little overly optimistic, it still should challenge the coalescing conventional wisdom that Lincoln is coming into her re-election in this quickly-reddening state as an underdog. The full memo is below the fold.

RaceTracker: AR-Sen

Hello everyone, It has been a long long while since I have posted here on SwingStateproject and due to the lack of posting/sleep I figured it would be nice to write up a little summary of how the 2010 Senate races look about a year out and take a closer look at how things may look further down the road.

So far from what I can tell there are 5 Democratic seats that are vulnerable and another 6 Republican Seats that are vulnerable.

Our Democratic Incumbents that face a stiff challenge in 2010.

AR-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Blanche Lincoln is polling very weak back home in Arkansas as James post from last week clearly shows.  http://www.swingstateproject.c…

To make the situation worse shes polling badly against virtual unknowns. This race kind of surpirses me since Senator Lincoln was able to win in 2004 with a solid 56-44 as Former (can’t say that enough) President Bush won the state by roughly the same margin. I think the Senator has a serious base problem on both sides. The Democratic base is likely turned off by her flip-flop on the Public Option in the heatlh care while the Republican base in this southern state is likely more energized. This is also one of the few states where President Obama did worse the Senator Kerry in the last presidential election. If I had to pick any incumbent democrat that I thought would go down next election I would place my bets on Senator Lincoln.

CO-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) The question here is will the Democratic primary hurt or help? My personal guess is hurt. Andrew Romanoff the former speaker of the Colorado House is running to challenge the appointed incumbent Senator Michael Bennet. I haven’t seen to many polls for the primary or general election in this state. Rassmussen had a poll about two weeks ago that had the likely Republican nominee Former Lietenant Governor Jane Norton defeating both Democrats (surprise, surprise) http://www.swingstateproject.c…

The Good news for Bennett however is that he is going into this race with a decent financial advantage over the NRSCs newest recruit. Romanoff could prove a problem but I have a feeling that deciding to run to the right of the incumbent Democrat in the Democratic primary is the nail in the coffin for his campaign.

CT-Sen: (No Clear Favorite)

Senator Dodd is in trouble allright. The countrywide scandal isn’t likely to go away anytime soon (no doubt Dodd must be contemplating stabbing Micheal Moore). The Republicans are likely to run on the countrywide scandal and nothing else. While useing scandal as an evasion for providing ideas has proven to work as an effective way of running a campaign in some cases, it might not work here simply becuase of how democratic Connecticut is. One asset Dodd has going for him is that the Senate Ethics commitee cleared him of any wrongdoing which will work well for him in the ad wars. Dodds polling is also on a rebound (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1296.xml?ReleaseID=1374) after having been in the tank for several monthes however he still has a lot of work ahead of him if he plans on getting reelected. The likely republican candidate is fomrer Represenatative Rob Simmons.

NV-Sen (No Clear Favorite)

Sen. Harry Reid the guy who beat his opponent by a 2-1 margin in 2004 and rose to become the leader of the democratic caucus is now in the fight of his politcal carrier. Senator Reids position is comparable to that of Senator Lincolns in Arkansas. Both are trailing virtual unknowns. However both have the triditional advantages of incumbency and the money that comes with that. There are only 2 ways I see Reid getting saved between now and next year. 1. He starts winning some legislative victories for his caucus and party or 2. He follows the Corzine (NJ-GOV) Strategy of throwing the kitchen sink and everyone thing else a 8-figure campaign warchest can throw.

PA-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Specters recent change of heart at the sight of polling showing him getting crushed in the Republican primary has not been as easy of a transition as the senator would have liked. Specter is polling dead even with his Republican rival Former Congressman Pat Tomney. Senator Specter also has to watch his left flank where Congressman Joe Sestak is running a tough campaign to defeat Senator Specter in the democratic primary.

Republicans:

KY-Sen (Lean Republican) With Senator Bunning out of the running the democratic hopes for an easy pickup have been dashed and replaced with a competitive open seat fight. The major Democratic candidates are Attorney General Jack Conway and Lt. Governor Daniel Mongiardo. Mongiardo this week caught a little bit of the shoe in foot while recorder in room disease last week http://www.swingstateproject.c… While this might not be the nail in the coffin for his campaign it certainly isn’t helpful to tell your boss you expect him to fail at this job and you are not interested in the office you are seeking. The Republican frontrunner in both the general and priamry elections by small margins is Secretary of State Trey Grayson. Taking Grayson on in the Republican primary is Son of the libertarian movements hero Rand Paul. I would personally like to see Conway vs. Paul and I think that would be the best scenario for democrats in this race.

LA-Sen: (Lean Republican) Senator Vitter would be a okay if he could have stayed out of the moral hypocracy zone. Sadly for Senator Vitter the democrats have found the one candidate that can give him a decent challenge, Congressman Charlie Melancon of the 3rd district is running.

Senator Vitter will need to rely on the same strategy as Senator Dodd and hope that the Republican lean of his state will help him survive scandal.

MO-Sen: (Lean Democratic) Senator Bond of Missouri has announced his intentions to retire which has opened up his senate seat. Secretary of State Robin Carnahan is running on the democratic side and has the primary locked up at the moment. Meanwhile Congressman Roy Blunt has also locked up his parties nomination. It doesn’t look like either side will have the fun of a competitive primary in this state. The head to heads have generaly shown Carnahan with modest leads over Blunt.

OH-Sen: (No Clear Favorite) Lt. Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner are leading the charge for democrats in there aim to take back Ohios remaining GOP senate seat. With Republican Senator George Voinovich retiring, republicans have turned to one of the worst places to recruit potential candidates, the bush adminisration. Former congressman and trade rep. Rob Portman has the republican primary locked up. Most head to heads show both Fisher and Brunner with slight leads over Portman. In the Democratic primary it looks like Fisher should be considered the favorite due to a large financial advantage.

NH-Sen:(No Clear Favorite)

This is another state where the Republican incument (Senator Judd Gregg) has retired and both parties have allready selected there nominees for the office. The Republicans have nominated appointed Attorney General Kelly Ayotte while the Democrats have nominated Congressman Paul Hodes. The polling on this race shows a close match up. It is to early to tell which of these two will end up winning however Ms. Ayottes constant dodging of questions related to critical issues certainly is not helping her cause.

Other races that could become competitive:

Illinois: Waiting to see if Mark Kirk can avoid a tough challenge from the right and if he wins how well he polls after the primary.

Florida: If Floridas economic troubles can start being blamed on its governor like the other states have started doing then Crists bid for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martinez may face some opposition.

North Caroinla: The Democrats problem here is that they cannot get a strong candidate to announce. It is quite clear that Senator Burr is vulnerable but without a strong opponent there is a strong chance he will be reelected.

I promise I will do a mop up job of fixing grammatical mistakes after I wake up for real and have some coffee in my system.

Anyway what are your thoughts on the competitive Senate races for the next election?  

Rasmussen (9/28, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39

Gilbert Baker (R): 47

Undecided: 8

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Curtis Coleman (R): 43

Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 40

Tom Cox (R): 43

Undecided: 11

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 41

Kim Hendren (R): 44

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Back in August, Public Policy Polling put out a release with Lincoln in tossups with some of these same names. Research 2000, more recently, had a somewhat healthier diagnosis: she was ahead of all of these guys by anywhere between 7 and 19 points, but she only did so while scoring in the mid-40s — well under that magical 50% line. Whether or not Rasmussen is painting an exaggerated picture (and, arguably, they’re not that far out of line with PPP) is questionable, but the fact remains that Lincoln hasn’t posted a higher showing than the low or mid-40s in any poll we’ve seen this year.

RaceTracker: AR-Sen

• AR-Sen: Because you can never have too many wingnuts: yet another unknown Republican is piling into the GOP field in the Arkansas Senate race, financial adviser Buddy Rogers. At his announcement today, Rogers was introduced by, and is apparently something of a stand-in for, Benton County Judge and former state Sen. Dave Bisbee, who’s an arch-enemy of state Sen. Gilbert Baker, who’s already in the race.

• CA-Sen: The DSCC has launched a web ad going after Carly Fiorina’s disastrous tenure at Hewlett-Packard, especially her $21.5 million severance package and 18,000 layoffs. Conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is still hanging in there in the GOP primary, though, and got a helpful endorsement from the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, who carry on the legacy of the 1970s anti-property tax crusader upon whom much of the blame for California’s current condition can be directed.

• IL-Sen: Although Rep. Mark Kirk has been accorded front-runner status in the Illinois GOP Senate primary, he has at least half a dozen minor opponents, and real estate developer Patrick Hughes seems to be getting the most attention of them; Kirk has been trying to move to the right to shore up that flank, as seen in his contorted waffling on cap and trade several weeks ago. Hughes has released an internal poll that shows, well, mostly very high undecideds, but with Kirk not in terribly commanding position. In a head-to-head, Kirk leads Hughes 24-11. In the seven-person field, Kirk gets 23% (no number for Hughes, though… gee, I wonder why?).

• MA-Sen: With Republican procedural stalling tactics having gotten exhausted, the state Senate is taking up debate today on the issue of revising state law to allow a temporary appointment to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat. The House has already passed the measure, and both chambers could be in agreement by tomorrow. The Boston Globe endorsed former Governor Mike Dukakis for the short-term position.

• WV-Sen: 91-year-old Robert Byrd has returned to the hospital today after a fall at his home. A spokesman says he was being checked out and unlikely to be admitted to the hospital, though.

• NJ-Gov: When we left off yesterday, Independent Chris Daggett had joined a suit by a libertarian candidate challenging New Jersey’s ballot placement laws. However, yesterday, a superior court judge refused to expedite the case, meaning it won’t be heard until after November, leaving major-party candidates Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in the positions at the top of the ballot.

• NY-Gov (pdf): I’m not sure why the New York governor’s race is so heavily polled, since the numbers don’t change much, but I guess people like gawking at train wrecks. It’s Siena’s turn today; they find David Paterson’s approval at 29/59, with a re-elect of 14%. Paterson loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo 66-20. In a general, Paterson loses to Rudy Giuliani 52-35, but beats Rick Lazio 39-35, while Cuomo beats Giuliani 52-39 and Lazio 64-18. Also, while it’s clear Giuliani isn’t running for Senate, he’d be competitive if he did, beating Kirsten Gillibrand 46-38.

• TN-08: Rep. John Tanner has drawn GOP competition that doesn’t sound that impressive on paper — Steve Fincher is a farmer who also travels Tennessee with his family gospel singing group. But Fincher at least has access to money, as he says he’ll report more than $100K in donations at month’s end.

• NY-LG: In a surprise decision, New York’s Court of Appeals (the state’s highest court) upheld David Paterson’s appointment of Richard Ravitch as Lt. Governor, in a 4-3 vote (the 3 against were all Pataki appointees). The state Constitution is vague on the LG issue, but Paterson was the first Governor to try to appoint an LG instead of leaving the spot vacant. This finally brings some stability back into New York’s politics (which devolved into chaos with a state Senate coup over summer) by giving a tie-breaking vote to Senate Dems in case there’s another defection, and maybe more importantly, enabling Paterson to resign to take a nice comfy ambassadorship somewhere without turning control of the state over to Pedro Espada Jr.

SSP is changing its ratings on eight Senate and gubernatorial races:

• AR-Sen: Safe D to Likely D
• CA-Sen: Safe D to RTW
• CO-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Gov: RTW to Likely D
• MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup
• NY-Sen-B: Safe D to RTW
• WI-Gov: Lean D to Tossup

We’ll be posting full write-ups for these changes soon. Our full race ratings charts: Gov | Sen.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/8-10, likely voters):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 44

Gilbert Baker (R): 37

Undecided: 19

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 45

Curtis Coleman (R): 37

Undecided: 18

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 46

Tom Cox (R): 29

Undecided: 25

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 47

Kim Hendren (R): 28

Undecided: 25

(MoE: ±4%)

Blanche Lincoln fares a little better in R2K’s first look at the Arkansas Senate race than she did in the recent PPP poll, which had her trailing state Sen. Gilbert Baker by 2 points. Here, she has a 7-point lead on Baker, and also beats her goofier GOP opponents by margins ranging from 8 to 19 (in the case of state Sen. Kim “That Jew” Hendren).

Still, Lincoln shouldn’t be resting on her laurels. She’s polling well below the 50% mark, and her approvals are a net negative: 43/49 (with only 17% “very favorable”). Her opponents remain largely unknown, with “no opinion” ranging from 73% for Baker and 75% for Curtis “Shots and Visa” Coleman, to 85% for Cox and Hendren. One finding that might give her a little breathing room, though, is that Arkansans support creation of the public option, 55-38 (when the interviewer fully explains it and doesn’t just say “public option”)… assuming, of course, that she’s actually interested in what her constituents think about the matter.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen