Tag: IL-10

GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is seriously considering a run for Barack Obama’s seat if a special election occurs:

In an interview Wednesday morning, Kirk said he was looking at running but thought state legislators’ first priority should be getting Blagojevich out of office.

“I will look at it,” Kirk said. “As far as the people of Illinois, the first job is not to decide how we pick a Senator. The first job is getting rid of the governor.”

But Kirk doesn’t stop there. Displaying his characteristic style of douchebaggery, the faux moderate rips into five of the six Senate candidates mentioned in the federal complaint against Blago:

Kirk did not hold back his disdain for “Senate Candidates one through five” mentioned the federal complaint, at least one of whom the governor said offered money upfront in return for the Senate appointment.

“I think if they were heavily involved with Rod Blagojevich, they will not be viable for a special election – if they can hold public office at all,” Kirk said.

The Illinois Republican said Senate candidates one through five “need to sign criminal attorneys and try to protect themselves against coming indictments.”

This is pretty vile, considering that it’s not clear that any candidates alluded to in the indictment (aside from possibly numbers four and five) engaged in anything shady, especially Senate Candidate #1, who most assume is Valerie Jarrett — someone who withdrew her name from consideration after earning the ire of Blago for not offering him anything other than “appreciation” for an appointment.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/30-10/1 in parens):

Dan Seals (D): 49 (38)

Mark “Tiberius” Kirk (R-inc): 43 (44)

Undecided: 7 (16)

(MoE: ±5%)

You got that, folks? It’s a shame that Mark Kirk has lost all of his credibility when it comes to disputing poll numbers — recall that he kvetched like a little kid when Daily Kos showed him leading Seals by six. When SurveyUSA turned around and released a poll showing Seals leading by eight, suddenly Kirk’s press flacks were praising the virtues of the Daily Kos/R2K poll. Pathetic.

Let’s look at the movement: Kirk’s favorable rating is taking a dive, currently sitting at 41-47 (down from 45-40). Seals has increased his lead among Dems from 70-12 to 83-10, and has taken a 51-42 lead among Independents. In the previous poll, Kirk had lead among these voters by a 45-34 margin.

While it’s worth noting that a recent Dem poll for Progress Illinois showed Kirk up by six, the incumbent has been well under 50% in every poll released this month. Seals has Kirk on the ropes, and could be poised to deliver a knockout blow on election day.

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Debbie Halvorson (D): 50

Marty Ozinga (R): 29

Undecided: 22

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Looks like Daily Kos has a bit of competition on the blogs-commissioning-polls front: Illinois local blog Progress Illinois (sponsored by the Illinois SEIU) has ordered polls of the two hottest House races in Illinois. The IL-11 poll is extremely good news; there had been some worries that the Halvorson internal from a few days ago taken by Anzalone Liszt was a little too good to be true (at 48-29), but these numbers almost exactly match. Money was the one asset that Ozinga had and it kept him competitive for many months, but with his fundraising numbers trailing off and Ozinga’s big fundraising dinner with Dick Cheney last week called off so Cheney could go get his heart rebooted, Ozinga’s chances seem to be circling the drain.

UPDATE: Swing State Project has upgraded IL-11 to Lean Democratic.

Bennett, Petts, and Normington for Progress Illinois (10/15-16, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 41

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 47

Undecided: 12

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Things don’t look quite as good further north in the 10th, as Dan Seals trails incumbent Mark Kirk by 6. This is pretty close to R2K’s poll from a few weeks ago (Kirk up 44-38), but a mirror image to SurveyUSA‘s subsequent poll (Seals up 52-44). It’s still encouraging to see Kirk well below 50, but it looks like this one will go down to the wire, with Seals heavily dependent on Obama coattails.

Illinois 10th Congressional District Democratic candidate Dan Seals and communications director Elisabeth Smith pose with SSP’s favorite babka.

P.S. – Have you donated to Jim Martin yet?

Over the past couple of days, SSP has shifted its ratings of six competitive races. Here’s a roundup of what we did:

FL-21 (L. Diaz Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

“Clash of the Titans”.

Those are the words that have been invariably used to describe this hotly-anticipated match-up between GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The mud is beginning to fly fast and furiously, which is to be expected from these two highly-seasoned pols with a long history of personal animus and tension.

Yes, Martinez has baggage from legal troubles in the ’90s, but he’s also a larger than life figure in his hometown of Hialeah, and has an intensely loyal following in that GOP stronghold — as evidenced by many recent endorsements from prominent local Republicans.

The publicly-released polling of this race has been very close: Diaz-Balart led by four points in a June Bendixen poll, and SUSA actually found Martinez leading by two in August. A recent Carlos McDonald poll gives Diaz-Balart a five-point edge, but that’s too close for an incumbent’s comfort. This one is shaping up to be close.

IL-10 (Kirk): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the races that have been in SSP’s “Lean Republican” column since March, this one’s addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome — it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls — one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos — give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it’s possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there’s one thing we’ve learned in the past few years, it’s that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let’s not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal poll during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

While Kirk has a wrongly-perceived “moderate” profile working in his favor, Seals is deftly using Kirk’s past criticism of Obama to his advantage. This race is a tossup.

NJ-03 (Open): Lean Democratic to Tossup

While Democrat John Adler has been a fundraising machine in his race for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton, he has yet to show much in the way of polling strength so far. In the internals of Republican Chris Myers and recently-released Zogby and Monmouth polls, Myers has led Adler by close margins. You can say what you like about those pollsters, but the fact that we haven’t seen any Democratic polls of this race seems a bit telling.

While this is a D+3 open seat (albeit one that voted for Bush in 2004), it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in over 100 years. While Jersey Democrats seem to have a habit of being underestimated in the polls, and it still would be surprising if Myers was the ultimate victor in November, it’s hard to give Adler a clear edge here for now.

NV-02 (Heller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

After Dean Heller beat Democrat Jill Derby in the open seat race for this R+8 district in 2006, many figured a rematch would be fruitless for Democrats here. However, several factors are making this contest interesting, the most glaring being the dramatic change in the district’s voter pool.

By the end of 2006, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 171,874 to 124,008 in this district. (Bear in mind that Derby lost here by under 13,000 votes that year.) The most recent figures listed with the Nevada SoS are significantly different; since 2006, Republicans have added under 4000 new voters to the rolls here, while Democrats have picked up nearly 26,000. That’s a potentially big group of voters who simply were not in play for Derby two years ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from August gave Heller a mere 47-42 lead over Derby, and private numbers haven’t been especially strong for Heller, either. While Heller retains a clear edge, an upset feels a bit more than just distantly possible in this district.

NY-29 (Kuhl): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl faced a close race from Democrat Eric Massa here in 2006, ultimately winning by only 6,000 votes despite heavy assistance from the NRCC and no DCCC response.

Since then, Kuhl hasn’t exactly been showing much fire in the belly. He was dogged by retirement rumors earlier this year, and has consistently posted sluggish fundraising numbers, being outraised by Massa since the start of the cycle. And don’t forget his response to debate requests from community leaders and local media outfits last month:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is an R+5 Appalachian-flavored district, it’s facing tough economic times and that should make for a volatile race for Kuhl. Two recent polls, one by the Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC and another by SurveyUSA, have given Massa the lead here. This looks set to be the most challenging race of Kuhl’s career.

OH-01 (Chabot): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has been a perennial target for Democrats in this Cincinnati-based district, but this year’s conditions appear to be the most treacherous.

A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Chabot a two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Moreover, Chabot is particularly at-risk by Barack Obama’s strong push in this 28% African-American district. That same SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a 52-43 lead, a considerable improvement over John Kerry’s 49-51 loss here in 2004.

The big Democratic push at the top of the ticket by Obama seems set to give Chabot his biggest test in years.

SurveyUSA just released a batch of polls undertaken on behalf of Roll Call which tested seven rematches from 2006. Three of them covered races which feature Democratic challengers who came heartbreaking close to victory last time. The news looks very, very good all around. (Full polling summary available as PDF. James’s roundup of the Dem incumbent polls is here.)

First up, IL-10 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Seals (D): 52

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±3.9%)

Bonus finding: Obama romps here, 62-36. Fuckin’ A.

Next, NC-08 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Larry Kissell (D): 49

Robin Hayes (R-inc): 41

Thomas Hill (L): 6

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Bonus finding: Obama 53, McCain 44. Remember, Bush won this district 54-45 in 2004.

And finally, NY-29 (10/04-05, likely voters, no trendlines):

Eric Massa (D): 51

Randy “Shotgun” Kuhl (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 5

(MoE: ±4.1%)

Bonus finding: Obama leads 49-47, and this ain’t exactly considered the heart of Obama country.

All in all, some awesome results for Team Blue. A bunch of Republican campaigns are going to have seriously miserable days tomorrow. And just think – Marky Mark “Capt.” Kirk was kvetching like little kid today about poll which showed him six points ahead. Can’t wait to see how he reacts to a survey which has him eight behind. Joy!

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 38

Mark “Tiberius” Kirk (R-inc): 44

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±5%)

The major flaw of this poll was that it was conducted during Rosh Hashanah, meaning that some Democratic-leaning voters could have been shut out of the poll in a distict with a significant Jewish population.

Still, though, the numbers are in-line with a Global Strategy Group poll from August showing Kirk ahead by 46-39. But the big number is at the top of the ticket, where Obama is leading McCain by 50-38. John Kerry won this district by only 53-47 in 2004, and Obama is poised to do significantly better here. That will seriously complicate things for faux moderate Mark Kirk as he tries to claw his way up to 50%.

Progress Illinois has a pretty amusing take-down of faux-moderate GOP Rep. Mark Kirk’s recent backtracking on his enthusiasm for Sarah Palin.

Earlier in September, Kirk was gushing about how “encouraged” he was that McCain tapped Palin, and that he was excited that the GOP would be the ones to once again break through “key barriers” in politics by electing a female VP. In a radio interview the next day, describing her as a “fearless” maverick with a history of bucking the old GOP guard. He even went so far as to squawk about Palin’s deep “executive experience”:

   HOWELL: How can you convince me — a guy who is not a far-right social conservative Republican — to really consider her one heart beat away from the Presidency?

   KIRK: She’s obviously an unknown figure, but she has had a rocket sled of a career already in Alaska. I think as governor, obviously she does have more executive experience — ironically — than the three other guys on the ticket. Her big asset, though, will be on the campaign. We have seen Sen. Obama now standing forth as a recognized national figure, but his greatest achievement has been his own campaign, and being able to command and defeat the electorate and push Hillary Clinton to the side. We now will look at Sarah Palin. She did very well in her first time out when she was nominated by Sen. McCain. It was a risky strategy.

With the bloom obviously coming off the Republican ticket’s rose, Kirk is now singing a much different tune:

In an interview of two of the 10th Congressional District candidates conducted by the Tribune editorial board, Kirk would not say whether he believed Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had the qualifications to become president.

“Quite frankly, I don’t know,” said Kirk, 49, of Highland Park, when asked if Palin could step into the job. In answer to repeated inquiries about Palin’s experience, Kirk said, “I would have picked someone different.”

Of course you would have, Mark.

Update: Statement from the Seals campaign:

“It says a lot about Mark Kirk’s desperation that he will say one thing when he’s in front of an editorial board, and do another thing when he’s attending the Republican National Convention and bundling over a hundred thousand dollars for the McCain-Palin ticket. Despite his latest efforts to distance himself from the sinking McCain-Palin ship, he can’t run from his attacks against Dan for supporting the Obama agenda or praise of Palin’s now discredited ‘reformer’ credentials. Once again, Mark Kirk has shown that he is more interested in playing partisan political games than bringing the change we need to Washington.”

Global Strategy Group for the DCCC (8/17-19, likely voters):

Dan Seals (D): 39

Mark Kirk (R-inc): 46

Undecided: 14

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Kirk’s latest internal shows him with a monster 22-point lead over Seals, and while these are older numbers, I’m more inclined to buy this picture than Kirk’s lopsided polls which have Democrats and Republicans at near-parity in the 10th.

In the Presidential race, GSG finds that Obama has a 51-36 lead over McCain. As Dan Seals continues to hammer Kirk for railing against the “Obama agenda”, more Democratic-leaning voters should return home in the coming weeks.

I approve of this message:

Mark Kirk attacks me for backing the Obama agenda. Well, you bet I do!

Does anyone doubt that Obama will carry this district by a wide margin? An excellent ad by Dan Seals.