Tag: IL-Gov

• AR-Sen: Cue up that old Jim Hightower saying about how there’s nothing in the middle of the road but squashed armadillos. Blanche Lincoln, already facing strong GOP opposition, is getting hit with salvos from her left flank too. The Sierra Club is running radio ads against her, attacking her opposition to allowing the EPA to regulate carbon emissions.

• HI-Sen: In case there was any doubt, the 86-year-old Daniel Inouye confirmed that he’s running for re-election and a ninth (!) term; he’ll have his campaign’s official kickoff tonight. The GOP says it’s “too early” to discuss whether they’d field a candidate to go against him. Republican Gov. Linda Lingle hasn’t made a truly Shermanesque statement, but has said that she’s concentrating on her last year in office and not running for anything else.

• MD-Sen: There were brief waves of panic yesterday generated by a rumor (originating on a right-wing local blog, who claimed to have an impeccable source) that Barbara Mikulski, 73 years old and slowly recovering from a leg injury last year, was about to retire too. The rumors were quickly rebutted by staffers, though.

• NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand got another endorsement from one of the many Democrats associated with a potential primary challenge against her: former NYC comptroller and mayoral candidate William Thompson.

• IL-Gov: It’s the final day of counting absentee and provisional ballots in the Illinois governor’s race today, but state Sen. Kirk Dillard (who trailed by 406 votes to state Sen. Bill Brady after Election Day in the GOP primary) says he won’t concede today regardless of the final number. He’ll wait at least until Feb. 23, when counties submit reports to the state Board of Elections.

• MI-Gov: A quick change of heart for former state Treasurer Bob Bowman, who opened up an exploratory committee to run for the Democratic gubernatorial nod last week. He pulled the plug instead, offering a cryptic explanation that he “just couldn’t commit at this time.” Bowman was probably a long-shot for the nomination, although his self-financing capability could make things interesting.

• OR-Gov (pdf): It looks like most of the action in the Oregon governor’s race is in the Democratic primary, and even there, it may not be shaping up to be an edge-of-your-seat affair. Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber released an internal poll (by Fairbank Maslin Maullin & Metz) giving him a convincing lead in the primary over ex-SoS Bill Bradbury. Kitzhaber is at 55, with Bradbury at 21 (and self-funding Soloflex founder Jerry Wilson at 2). Both are extremely well-regarded by the Democratic electorate, with Kitzhaber at 69/16 and Bradbury at 54/13.

• TX-Gov: Too bad newspapers can’t vote, because polls show Kay Bailey Hutchison losing the GOP gubernatorial primary to Rick Perry by a wide margin among actual humans. However, she swept the endorsement derby over the last few days among the state’s major papers: the Dallas Morning News, the Houston Chronicle, and the Austin American-Statesman.

• FL-25: Democrats are leaning hard on Joe Garcia for another run in the 25th, now that it’s an open seat, and it seems to be working. Garcia, the former county Democratic chair and a current Energy Dept. official, came close to defeating Mario Diaz-Balart (who’s scurrying off to the open seat in the safer 21st); he’s been talking to the DCCC in the last few days and rounding up his previous staffers. On the GOP side, state Rep. David Rivera is already in and state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is certainly talking like a candidate, saying he’ll give Rivera “an old-fashioned ass-whooping.”

• IL-11: This isn’t the way to start your general election campaign off on the right foot. GOP nominee Adam Kinzinger, an Air Force vet, had to revise the military credentials section of his bio after a Facebook poster called attention to possible discrepancies in his record. Kinzinger, the NRCC’s favored candidate, left some feathers ruffled on the right en route to his easy primary victory.

• MI-03: A decent-sounding Democrat is stepping forward to run for the open seat left by Republican Vern Ehlers (where Barack Obama nearly won last year, although it’s a historically Republican area with a strong GOP bench). Attorney Patrick Miles is past president of the Grand Rapids bar association, and a Harvard Law classmate of Obama. On the GOP side, state Rep. Justin Amash, who declared his candidacy the day before Ehlers’ retirement announcement, got the endorsement of western Michigan’s biggest power broker: Amway guru and 2006 gubernatorial candidate Dick DeVos.

• MS-04: Rep. Gene Taylor has perhaps the reddest district held by any House Democrat, so it’s surprising that, with the general sense of a Republican-favorable year, no prominent GOPer has tried to surf the red tide against the usually-unassailable Taylor. A local elected official has finally stepped up, though: state Rep. Steven Palazzo.

• PA-06: One other internal poll, clearly intended to scare rich guy Steven Welch from burning any more of his money against Rep. Jim Gerlach in the GOP primary. Gerlach’s poll has Gerlach leading Welch by a head-spinning 71 to 6. Somehow I can’t imagine it’s really that bad, but Welch clearly has an uphill fight ahead of him.

• PA-12: There’s a little more clarity to the developing fields in the 12th, where two prominent potential candidates said no thanks. On the Democratic side, Jack Hanna, the state party’s southwest chair, passed. And this is a bit more of a surprise, on the GOP side: Diane Irey, a Washington County Commissioner who ran a medium-profile campaign against John Murtha in 2006 (but didn’t break 40%), decided not to run either; she’s endorsing Tim Burns, Some Dude already in the race who apparently has self-funding capacity (unlike 2008 candidate Bill Russell, who just has BMW Direct in his corner). Despite the district’s recent turn at the presidential level, this is one district where the disparity between the two parties’ benches may make the difference for the Dems.

• SD-AL: The GOP already has two decent challengers in the field in South Dakota, the state’s SoS, Chris Nelson, and state Rep. Blake Curd, who brings his own money with him. A third possible entrant seems likely now: state Rep. Kristi Noem, the assistant majority leader, says she’ll announce her candidacy soon. State Reps. in South Dakota have tiny constituencies, so name rec may be an issue – but more ominously, there are also rumors that term-limited Gov. Mike Rounds may be considering the race (although he sounded pretty disinterested when asked).

• LA-LG: SoS Jay Dardenne, who recently decided against a promotion to the Senate by challenging David Vitter in the GOP primary, now has another promotion in mind. He’d like to be elected Lt. Governor, now that that job is open (with Mitch Landrieu having departed to become New Orleans mayor). Gov. Bobby Jindal will appoint a temporary successor until the November election, but what Jindal would really like is to get rid of the whole LG position altogether (although he’ll need to get the legislature to cooperate on that idea, which doesn’t seem likely).

• NH-St. Sen.: There’s a special election tonight in the New Hampshire Senate, to fill the seat left behind by Republican Ted Gatsas, elected in November to become mayor of Manchester. Democratic state Rep. Jeff Goley faces Republican state Rep. David Boutin. The election gives Democrats the chance to push their edge in the Senate to 15-9, as well as just to make an assertive statement in New Hampshire, where they face tough retentions in both U.S. House races this year.

Victory Research (2/4-7, likely voters)

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 42

Bill Brady (R): 31

Rich Whitney (G): 4

Undecided: 23

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 41

Kirk Dillard (R): 35

Rich Whitney (G): 3

Undecided: 21

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Here’s the first post-primary poll of the Illinois governor’s race, and it shows Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn in OK shape for re-election, suggesting that he may not have taken on quite as much water during the heated Democratic primary as might be feared. The poll is from Victory Research, a firm I’ve never heard of before; they claim this is an “independent” poll, although, interestingly, they’ve done work for both Quinn and Republican state Sen. Kirk Dillard in the past.

As you probably know, the GOP primary has yet to be decided, and probably won’t be for several months, which is why they poll two GOPers despite the primary being two weeks old. State Sen. Bill Brady has a 406-vote edge for now, and Quinn should root for Brady to prevail, based on the disparity between Brady and Dillard’s performances. The difference between Dillard and Brady, if you delve into the crosstabs, is entirely explicable by how the more moderate Dillard performs in the Chicago suburbs (where he’s from, as opposed to the socially conservative, Downstate Brady). Dillard wins with over 50% in the collar counties, while Quinn and Brady are in a dead heat in the collar counties (while, of course, Quinn cleans up in vote-heavy Cook County).

RaceTracker Wiki: IL-Gov

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Tossup to Lean R

Rep. John Boozman officially entered the Arkansas Senate race this weekend. While he had telegraphed this for weeks, his official entry means that there’s finally a top-tier candidate for the Republicans. This race was a tossup even with a grab-bag of state legislators and self-funders, thanks to the Democratic brand’s decay in Arkansas and Blanche Lincoln’s play-it-down-the-middle-and-appeal-to-nobody approach. Two polls this week gave Boozman a lead over Lincoln in the 20-point ballpark, though, indicating that a stronger Republican probably pushes this one out of Lincoln’s grasp.

Boozman will still have to fight his way out of the crowded GOP primary — state Sen. Gilbert Baker and businessman Curtis Coleman aren’t getting out of the way (although some of the lesser opposition, like Tom Cox and Buddy Rogers, have bailed out), and Boozman’s long House tenure may be a liability in an anti-incumbent, anti-establishment year. His base in the state’s dark-red northwest will probably see him through the primary, though.

IL-Gov (Quinn): Likely D to Tossup

It’s a bit of a surprise that Pat Quinn survived the primary election, as the primary campaign revealed he had something of a glass jaw, and the last few polls of the race showed him with terrible approval ratings and getting edged by challenger Dan Hynes. It’s never a good sign to have a bloody, depleted victor staggering out of a barely-won primary, and his problems are compounded by general anti-incumbent fervor and bad economic conditions in the Rust Belt, which is enough for us to move this race all the way up to Tossup.

Still, there are a few things that Quinn has in his favor: he has an extremely long period (nine months) to rehabilitate himself, while the Republicans won’t even have a nominee for a while, and most likely it’ll be Bill Brady — while Illinois throughout the 80s and 90s was happy to elect moderate, suburban Republicans to statewide office, it remains to be seen whether a socially conservative downstate resident can get over the hump. Finally, the Scott Lee Cohen sideshow quickly and suitably resolved itself this weekend, leaving the state party to pick a more appealing running mate… although, after some initial lukewarm interest, Hynes has now taken his name out of consideration for a unity ticket.

You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen | IL-Gov

A big break for Pat Quinn:

Scott Lee Cohen, the Democratic nominee for Illinois lieutenant governor, removed himself from the campaign Sunday, freeing Gov. Pat Quinn from the baggage Cohen brought to the ticket, but also leaving him without a running mate.

“I’m someone who made mistakes in my life. And look where I am. If I let you down I’m sorry,” Cohen said Sunday evening in a tearful announcement at the Hop Haus Tavern.

For days, the pawn broker-turned Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor was dogged over allegations he abused anabolic steroids, went into fits of rage, sexually abused his then-wife, got behind in child support payments and held a knife to the throat of a former girlfriend who is a convicted prostitute.

The task now turns to Illinois Democratic Party leaders to pick a replacement for Cohen. As head-spinning and bad of an episode as this has been, at least it resolved itself fairly quickly. The Republican gubernatorial primary, however, looks like it won’t be resolving itself any time soon.

UPDATE (David): On the replacement process:

Selection of a replacement to fill the ballot vacancy is the work of the 38-member Democratic State Central Committee, made up of a male and female representative from each of the state’s 19 congressional districts. The state central committee is scheduled to meet March 17, though a meeting could be held sooner.

• FL-Sen: Jeb Bush has studiously avoided explicitly taking sides in the Florida Senate primary, but various actions (like sending out his sons to endorse Marco Rubio) have tipped his hand. Another moment like that today, as he said on a radio interview that he’s “proud” of Rubio and the challenge he’s mounted. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist seems to be digging in rather than making plans to switch to an indie or Dem bid: he’s saying “he’s no RINO,” and perhaps more tellingly, now saying he opposes the repeal of “don’t ask don’t tell,” a wedge issue he could be using to propel himself out of the GOP if he so chose. (h/t sapelcovits)

• OH-Sen: Geez, this is just bad to worse for Jennifer Brunner. She’s been holding off on reporting her fundraising again, and here’s why: she raised $93,000 in the fourth quarter, and managed to burn through more than that, leaving her sitting on a whopping total of $60,000 in the bank (1% of what Rob Portman has). Clearly she thinks someone is going to bail her out at some point – I’m just wondering who she thinks it’ll be.

• FL-Gov (pdf): Republican internal pollster McLaughlin & Assocs. finds a sizable lead for Republican AG Bill McCollum over Democratic state CFO Alex Sink: 41-30. That’s right in line with both Rasmussen and Quinnipiac’s most recent looks at the race, so this one seems to be moving away from Sink for the time being.

• IL-Gov: With all the new allegations popping up about pawnbroker-turned-LG nominee Scott Lee Cohen – on top of yesterday’s news about his rap sheet, today’s news features his steroid use and resulting ‘roid rage and sexual violence — I’m starting to wonder where the other Lt. Governor candidates were in terms of doing opposition research. For that matter, where was the media? That’s the kind of thing that sells papers, if nothing else. At any rate, Cohen is saying he isn’t stepping down (having invested more than $2 million of his own money in winning the race purely on name rec), while Pat Quinn is reduced to saying that “the situation will resolve itself.” Ex-Sen. Adlai Stevenson is advising Quinn to take the same route he did in 1986 when he was saddled with a LaRouchie running mate, which is to abandon ship and make a third-party run. Of course, that didn’t work too well for Stevenson, who lost anyway, although he was running an uphill fight against popular Gov. Jim Thompson.

The one bright spot for the Dems in all this is that the GOP may be months away from having a candidate. State Sen. Kirk Dillard, who came up 406 votes short, isn’t conceding, and is saying let’s wait until all the absentee and provisional ballots (possibly up to 10,000 of them) are counted. Even if he wants a recount, that won’t be able to start until the race’s certification in early March.

• MN-Gov: The Democratic field in the Minnesota governor’s race got a little smaller, as state Sen. Steve Kelley dropped out. He was probably motivated by his poor showing on Tuesday’s informal straw poll, where he finished with 4%, behind at least half a dozen other candidates and “uncommitted” as well.

• OR-Gov: With ex-SoS Bill Bradbury getting a Howard Dean endorsement, ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber just rolled out an endorsement of his own from another netroots favorite: Steve Novick, who barely lost the 2008 Senate primary. Kitzhaber, of course, was one of the few establishment figures to line up behind Novick, so Novick is returning the favor. (You’ve gotta love the photo of the two of them at the link.)

• AL-05: Looks like the Democrats are moving closer to a candidate to take on Parker Griffith (or whoever defeats him in the GOP primary). Taze Shepard, a Huntsville attorney and elected member of the state Board of Education in the 90s, is considering the race. He has quite the pedigree, too: he’s the grandson of John Sparkman, who represented the 5th from 1936-1946 and then was Alabama’s senator from 1947 to 1979 (and was the Democratic VP nominee in 1952). Also, Griffith may have a little more company in the GOP primary, and it’s an old foe: businessman Wayne Parker, who narrowly lost to the Democratic version of Griffith in the open seat race in 2008.

• MA-10: There are increasing retirement rumors about Rep. William Delahunt, since, of course, the dominant narrative is that Democrats start to cry and run home as soon as usually-ignored Reps face a halfway-credible challenge. Also feeding the rumors, perhaps, are Delahunt’s fundraising numbers from last quarter: $31K (although he is sitting on $568K). What may be most interesting is that the rumors all come with a likely replacement attached: Joe Kennedy III.

• WA-08: Ex-Microsoft executive Suzan Del Bene brings her own money to the race (and lots of it – she already has $773K on hand, compared with Rep. Dave Reichert’s $477K), but now she’s poised to tap into a nationwide donor base, with an endorsement from EMILY’s List.

• Mayors: So primary season is here for real: the primary election in the New Orleans mayoral race is tomorrow. With a highly cluttered field and one clear frontrunner looming over the field (Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu), the real question here seems to be who manages to get into a runoff with Landrieu (who was polling at 45% in the most recent poll of the race). Other major opponents include John Georges, Rob Couhig, Nadine Ramsey, James Perry, and Troy Henry.

• CA-Sen: Possibly the most bizarre political ad (well, web video) of all time has just gotten unveiled by the Carly Fiorina campaign, which makes their “Carlyfornia Dreaming” website look reasoned and well-thought-out. I mean, they’re going to be studying this in political rhetoric classes 50 years from now, as an example of what not to do. Not only is the imagery laughable (check out the glowing-eyed demon sheep at 2:24) but the metaphor completely falls apart (Tom Campbell is a “FCINO” (financial conservative in name only) and thus a crafty wolf, while good politicians are a herd of helpless mindless sheep?).

• CT-Sen: Even Rasmussen can’t find a way to put a happy face on the tombstone piledriver the Connecticut GOP suffered with the Chris Dodd-for-Richard Blumenthal swap. They find Blumenthal leading ex-Rep. Rob Simmons 54-35 and Gorgeous Lady of Wrestling Linda McMahon 56-36. Simmons is actually very well-liked, at 60/26 favorables, but that’s no match for Blumenthal at 70/27.

• IL-Sen: Republicans can content themselves with Rasmussen’s first post-primary poll of the Senate field; they find GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leading Dem state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias 46-40. This, of course, doesn’t jibe with not only last week’s PPP poll (with a 42-34 Alexi lead) but the last Rasmussen poll of the general, from December (with a 42-39 Alexi lead). Both those polls predate the strangely-timed consent decree between the FDIC and the Giannoulias-family-owned Broadway Bank, so it’s possible Giannoulias might have taken a hit from that. Also, Rasmussen’s numbers aren’t that far off from an internal (pdf) from Magellan that the Kirk campaign was quick to release yesterday: 47-35. One suggestion that might cast a little doubt on the samples, though, is Barack Obama’s approval ratings in his home state, oddly low at 54% and 51% respectively, only a few points ahead of his national average.

• IN-Sen: Ex-Sen. Dan Coats is leaving himself a lot of elbow room with the way he’s carefully phrased what he’s doing: “as I test the waters for a potential challenge…” I realize that SSP is pretty much powerless to change the nature of the political discourse, but we’re getting very tired of the whole “I’m not running, but I’m running, wink wink” kabuki that seems to be standard practice these days (John Boozman, we’re talking to you too). We fully intend to change the rating on this race, but not until Coats truly and officially gets in. At any rate, Coats may be wise leaving himself an escape hatch, if the dribs and drabs like this one keep piling up: one of his lobbying clients has been Hugo Chavez-connected oil company Harvest Natural Resources (but, then, making nice with Chavez is IOKIYAR, I guess).  

• WI-Sen: If you’re looking for a tea leaf on whether or not ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson is interested in taking on Russ Feingold this year, look no further: he just took a position as an advisor to a hedge fund. He’ll consult with Peak Ridge Capital Group on agribusiness matters. Not only will that keep him occupied in the near future, but it’s not really the kind of thing you want on your resume if trying to run at a time of anti-banker agitas. (Another hint: the talk of an ex-Rep. Mark Neumann switch from the Governor’s race, to a rematch with Feingold, suddenly bubbling up.)

• IL-Gov: We have winners in the gubernatorial primaries, as all of Illinois’s precincts reported by the end of the day yesterday. Pat Quinn wound up with a more than 8,000 vote margin over Dan Hynes (good for 50.4%), and Hynes conceded this morning. On the Republican side, state Sen. Kirk Dillard didn’t make up as much ground in Cook County on fellow state Sen. Bill Brady as anticipated, and Brady wound up finishing with a 406-vote margin. There’s no automatic recount law in Illinois, so it’s up to Dillard to decide whether or not to proceed with a challenge.

Meanwhile, down the ballot, both parties seem somewhat aghast at the winners of their Lt. Governor primaries. News came out today that pawnbroker Scott Lee Cohen, winner of the Democratic nod, was arrested four years ago for misdemeanor assault after holding a knife to the throat of a girlfriend (who had also been convicted of prostitution). Needless to say, Quinn is already distancing himself from Cohen, calling on him to step aside. (Although Governor and Lt. Governor are elected separately in primaries, they’re then lashed together as a ticket for the general, which is how Rod Blagojevich and Quinn got put together despite their antipathy – I’m not sure if any other state does it that way.) Which isn’t to say that the Republicans fared much better on that front, nominating random teabagging businessman Jason Plummer (who, like Cohen, won by pouring his own money into the race) instead of state Sen. Matt Murphy.

• NY-Gov: I can’t see this being of any interest unless something goes seriously wrong and we somehow wind up with a David Paterson/Rick Lazio matchup and we need to shunt off some right-wing votes to get Paterson over the hump. But now there’s a teabagger-linked rich guy, Buffalo real estate developer Carl Paladino, saying that he’s considering a gubernatorial run, and that he “would go in as a pure independent.”

• PA-Gov: Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato has the big financial edge in the Dem gubernatorial primary, and now he has some key labor backing as well. The Teamsters are the first major union to endorse in the primary, and they went for Onorato.

• TX-Gov: Looks like there’s going to be a crazy Wang Dang Tango at Rick Perry’s Houston rally on Sunday: not only is Sarah Palin going to be there to endorse Perry, but so too is the Motor City Madman, the Ten Terrible Fingers of Doom, the Rock ‘n’ Roll Caveman: Ted Nugent (who plans to perform). In case you’re wondering where the normally reserved and understated Nugent stands on all things political, he recently said: “I think that Barack Hussein Obama should be put in jail. It is clear that Barack Hussein Obama is a communist. Mao Tse Tung lives and his name is Barack Hussein Obama. This country should be ashamed. I wanna throw up.”

• AR-01: The first Democrat making moves to replace retiring Rep. Marion Berry is Berry’s very own Chief of Staff, Chad Causey, who has already scheduled a fundraiser. State Sen. Steve Bryles, state Rep. Keith Ingram, and former state party chair Jason Willett are other Dems publicly eyeing the race. For the GOP, broadcaster Rick Crawford probably won’t have the race to himself, with state Sen. Johnny Key interested. Princella Smith is also likely to get in – she’ll definitely need a new job starting in November, as she’s currently a staffer to Rep. Joe Cao.

• FL-24: The 24th seems like an apt target for Republicans, with a Republican lean and freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas not quite finding her footing – but fundraising has gone poorly for the two GOPers in the race, state Rep. Sandy Adams and Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, neither of whom has broken into the six digits in the last few quarters. The NRCC is now touting the likely entry of Craig Miller, the former CEO of Ruth’s Chris Steakhouses. He’s never held office before, but at least he brings his own money with him.

• NC-10: In the dark-red 10th, the only way odious chickenhawk Rep. Patrick McHenry is going to get dislodged is in a GOP primary – and it’s starting to look like that’s a possibility this year. Not one but two different opponents have outraised him (although mostly by dipping into their own wallets): dentist and Iredell Co. Commissioner Scott Keadle and businessman Vance Patterson. Keadle has some electoral experience, coming within 14 points of Mel Watt in NC-12 in 1998, during the brief period when the frequently-modified VRA district had a sizable white plurality. Keadle claims to be coming at McHenry from the right, which is hard to fathom as McHenry is already one of the most stridently conservative members of the House.

• NH-01: Another one-time NRCC fave who’s fallen by the side of the road somewhat as he’s put up quarter after quarter of mediocre fundraising is former Manchester mayor Frank Guinta. Sensing an opening, several other contenders have gotten into the GOP field; one, Richard Ashooh, has been exploring the race but made it official today. He comes with his own set of insider credentials, though: he’s the VP of governmental relations for large locally-based defense contractor BAE Systems.

• NY-23: Talk about not learning from the past. If Assemblyman Will Barclay wins the GOP nomination, he may find himself getting Scozzafavaed by the same guy. Doug Hoffman plans to run on both the Republican and Conservative lines, but Conservative party chair Mike Long says he’ll continue to back Hoffman on the Conservative line even if Hoffman loses the Republican primary.

• Redistricting: There’s still a chance to get on the newly-created California legislative redistricting board. The deadline to submit an application is Feb. 12. The state is taking notice that 73% of applicants are non-Hispanic whites and 70% are males, neither of which is very representative of the state’s makeup, and is shelling out for a last-minute outreach campaign to bring in some more minority applicants. Part of the problem is that applicants can’t have run for office or worked for a politician, which filters out many of the most politically engaged in minority communities. At any rate, it’s an opportunity to get more progressives behind the wheel of shaping a more competitive legislative map for next year, so any SSPers in the Golden State are urged to apply.

• Election Results: With 99.1% of precincts reporting (97 remain, apparently mostly in Cook County), both sides of the governor’s race remain too close to call. Democratic incumbent Pat Quinn has declared victory, sitting on a 7,000 vote lead (50.4%-49.6%) and with the remaining precincts in Cook County likely to go his way, although Dan Hynes hasn’t conceded yet. On the GOP side, we’re looking most likely at a recount, as state Sen. Bill Brady leads fellow state Sen. Kirk Dillard currently by a 751-vote margin (20.3%-20.2%), as they both squeaked past the two presumed frontrunners, former state party chair Andy McKenna and former AG Jim Ryan. The fact that the remaining votes are from Cook County, however, may be poised to help the moderate suburbs-based Dillard, though, rather than the conservative downstate Brady, so this race seems likely to get even closer (Nate Silver actually projects a one-vote victory for Brady based on broader Cook County trends). Recount procedures make it sound like a protracted process – an initial vote tally won’t happen until March 5, and then the process “could take months to complete” – giving Quinn a big headstart on whoever the GOP victor turns out to be.

As expected, Alexi Giannoulias and Mark Kirk are the Senate nominees, although both won their races with somewhat underwhelming percentages (39% for Giannoulias, and 57% for Kirk, who could have been in more trouble had the teabagging right coalesced behind one person in particular). Conservatives did triumph over establishment candidates in several GOP House primaries, though, as Bob Dold! beat state Rep. Beth Coulson in the 10th, and state Sen. Randy Hultgren beat Ethan Hastert in the 14th.

In Florida, as expected, state Sen. Ted Deutch easily won the special election primary to succeed Rep. Robert Wexler, beating former Broward Co. Commissioner Ben Graber 86-15. It looks like he’ll face Republican Ed Lynch (the 2008 nominee), who defeated Joe Budd by only 46 votes (but with only 8,000 total GOP votes, that’s outside the margin for an automatic recount). And here’s a surprise out of Kentucky: Democrats picked up a state House seat in the dark-red HD 24, which was recently vacated when Republican Jimmy Higdon got promoted to the state Senate in another special election. Terry Mills won, 54-46, based on an overwhelming edge (89-11) on his home turf of Marion County, reminding us that, at the end of the day, all politics is local.

Finally, last night was caucus and straw poll night in Minnesota. Only 80% of precincts have reported yet – I guess they go to bed early in Minnesota – but the straw poll in the Democratic governor’s race points to only a lot of chaos at this point. Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak led with 21.8%, followed closely by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 20.2%. However, “uncommitted” is a solid 3rd at 15%, there are five other candidates who managed to break 5% (John Marty, Tom Rukavina, Paul Thissen, Matt Entenza, and Tom Bakk), and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton doesn’t even seem to be bothering with the whole process, planning on going straight to the primary, so there’s not much clarity on how the field will shake out. The GOP field seems much more clear-cut, where former state House minority leader Marty Seifert beat state Rep. Tom Emmer 50-39, with the rest of the field in the low single digits.

• AZ-Sen: With the imminent entry of ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth into the Republican primary against John McCain, we’re already looking at dueling internal polls. McCain offers up a poll from POS, giving him a 59-30 lead over Hayworth. Hayworth has his own poll from McLaughlin, which, not surprisingly, shows him much closer, trailing 49-33.

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek, NASCAR dad? Meek plans to call attention to his campaign by shelling out to be the lead sponsor of Mike Wallace’s car in an upcoming race at Daytona.

• IN-Sen: With the surprising announcement by ex-Sen. Dan Coats last night that he’s interested in a comeback and would start seeking the signatures to qualify for the Indiana GOP nod, the oppo pretty much writes itself. For starters, Coats can’t even sign his own petition – he’s been a registered voter in Virginia for more than a decade, not Indiana. And what’s he been doing for much of that time? Lobbying… for King & Spalding, on behalf of nice people like the Carlyle Group and Bank of America. The Plum Line also points to Coats accusing Bill Clinton of “wagging the dog” when he started going after al-Qaeda in 1998, allegedly to distract the press from his peccadilloes… and we all know how that turned out.

• ND-Sen: Democrats have, well, somebody ready to go if ex-AG Heidi Heitkamp doesn’t get into the Senate race to replace retiring Byron Dorgan. State Sen. Tracy Potter, who represents Bismarck, will be announcing his candidacy on Friday. Other potential candidates seem to be holding back, waiting to see what Heitkamp does; she’s been strangely silent since initially expressing interest in the seat last month.

• NY-Sen-B: Quinnipiac’s first poll of the New York Senate race after the Harold Ford Jr. boomlet began finds, well, pretty much what everyone else has found: Kirsten Gillibrand beats him by a wide margin but doesn’t break 50%. Gillibrand beats 36-18, with Jonathan Tasini at 4. Quinnipiac also tests general election matchups against Republican port commissioner Bruce Blakeman (they don’t even bother testing ex-Gov. George Pataki, who doesn’t seem to be making any moves to get into the race). Gillibrand beats Blakeman 44-27, and Ford beats him 35-26. Gillibrand is slowly gaining some more name rec, up to a 42/28 approval. Blakeman may not have the GOP primary to himself, though, as a strange blast from the past is re-emerging to say he’s interested in the race: ex-Rep. Joseph DioGuardi. In case the name doesn’t ring a bell, DioGuardi served in the House representing Westchester County from 1984 to 1988, when he was defeated by Nita Lowey.

• NY-Gov: The same Quinnipiac sample looks at the governor’s race, finding huge approval gaps between Andrew Cuomo (54/16) and David Paterson (34/49). Cuomo wins the Democratic primary 55-23. Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 57-25, while Lazio manages to get past Paterson 40-39. There’s also one other bit of good news for Cuomo (who’s seemed gunshy about taking on Paterson, perhaps out of bad memories of his race against Carl McCall). The poll asked if his candidacy would be “racially divisive,” and respondents answered “no” by an 80-14 margin, including 73-22 among African-Americans. Marist (pdf) also just released the gubernatorial half of its recent Senate poll, finding generally similar numbers. Cuomo wins the primary 70-23. Cuomo beats Lazio 64-27, while Lazio edges Paterson 46-43.

• TN-Gov: Add one more candidate running for higher office who’s publicly copped to being birther-curious: Lt. Gov. (and GOP gubernatorial candidate) Ron Ramsey. Not having made much of an impression in terms of polling (where Rep. Zach Wamp has an edge) or fundraising (where Knoxville mayor Bill Haslam is cleaning up), this seems like the most attention Ramsey has gotten so far.

• TX-Gov: Here’s more evidence that the Texas GOP gubernatorial primary may be headed for a runoff: the new Rasmussen poll of the primary doesn’t have anyone coming even close to 50%. Incumbent Rick Perry leads at 44, with Kay Bailey Hutchison lagging at 29, and Paulist insurgent Debra Medina all the way up to 14 on the strength of some buzz coming out of her debate performances. KBH may be counting on a runoff as her only way left to salvage this race, but somehow it seems like, in a runoff, Medina votes are a lot likely to gravitate toward the secession-invoking Perry rather than consummate DC insider Hutchison. In the general, all three defeat Democratic ex-Houston mayor Bill White, although, as one would expect, KBH puts up the biggest margin: 49-36. Perry wins 48-39, while Medina wins by only 41-38.

• AR-02: One of the non-Tim Griffin candidates in the Republican field, David Meeks, dropped out of the race today, probably realizing he was in over his head with the kind of attention open seat races get. One other candidate, restaurant owner Scott Wallace remains, and he may well carry the teabagger flag against Beltway creature Griffin. Realizing the best way to win this is by painting Griffin as insider, the DCCC is turning their attention to Griffin’s past as GOP behind-the-scenes fixer, calling attention to his efforts at voter suppression. Over in the diaries, ARDem takes a look at the developing Dem field, which currently contains state House speaker Robbie Wills, liberal state Sen. Joyce Elliott, and retiring Vic Snyder’s chief of staff, David Boling. It won’t contain, however, Little Rock mayor Mike Stodola, or Public Service Commissioner Paul Suskie, who had seemed to be laying the groundwork for a run.

• CA-12, CA-AG: False alarm: Rep. Jackie Speier is staying put in the 12th District, where’s she been in place for only a couple years. Rumors that she was about to move over to the state AG’s race had many of the state legislators on the Peninsula angling to replace her.

• GA-04: In the wake of an internal from Rep. Hank Johnson showing him crushing his three opponents in the Dem primary in this solidly-blue district in Atlanta’s suburbs, one of those opponents got out of the way: DeKalb Co. Commissioner Lee May. May is an ally of former DeKalb Co. CEO Vernon Jones, so it’s possible that he’s getting out of the way primarily so that Jones can get a bigger share of the non-Johnson vote.

• MA-10: With the general sense that this is the most vulnerable district in Massachusetts (as seen with its votes in the Senate special election last month), Republicans are taking more of an interest in challenging Rep. William Delahunt in this usually-ignored seat. Former state treasurer Joe Malone is probably the biggest name to express interest, but at least one other credible contender, state Rep. Jeffrey Perry, is already announcing his candidacy. State Sen. Robert Hedlund is also expressing some interest.

• NJ-07: One big hole in the Dems’ recruitment schedule has been the 7th, narrowly won by freshman GOP Rep. Leonard Lance in 2008. They’ve managed to fill the gap with Ed Potosnak, who’s elevated slightly above Some Dude status by the full Rolodex he brings with him after working for a number of years as a Hill staffer for Rep. Mike Honda.

• PA-11: Lackawanna Co. Commissioner Corey O’Brien has a compelling argument for why he should win the primary in the 11th: he says Rep. Paul Kanjorski has “zero” chance of defeating Republican Lou Barletta in their third face-off, citing Kanjorski’s low approval ratings. O’Brien has been fundraising well ($180K last quarter, not far from Kanjo’s $237K) and recently hit the airwaves with a small cable buy for his first TV spot.

• CA-LG: Is San Francisco mayor (and gubernatorial race dropout) Gavin Newsom actually thinking about a run for the dead-end job that is California’s #2? Officially he’s not interested, but he hasn’t said no, and a new public poll from Tulchin gives him a big lead in a hypothetical LG primary, with Newsom at 33 against the two declared candidates: Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn at 17 and state Sen. Dean Florez at 15. Meanwhile, the state Senate this week takes up the issue of filling the current vacancy in the LG’s chair (vacated by now-Rep. John Garamendi); there’s actually talk of blocking Ahnold appointee state Sen. Abel Maldonado, despite that getting the moderate Republican Maldonado out of his seat would open up his Dem-leaning district for a takeover and help push the Dem edge in the Senate toward the magic 2/3s mark.

• CT-AG: The story of Susan Bysiewicz just gets stranger and stranger; she decided that rather than run for governor, she’d prefer to run for AG, but now the job’s current occupant, Richard Blumenthal, says that possibly she can’t. An AG opinion interprets state law requiring ten years of legal practice as unclear and urges a declaratory ruling on Bysiewicz’s case from a court. Bysiewicz, for her part, said she won’t seek the declaratory ruling and is simply plowing ahead with her AG campaign, although it’s possible one of the other candidates in the race might force the issue in the courts.

• Polltopia: The skepticism toward those SurveyUSA polls commissioned by Firedoglake continues to grow, this time from political science professor and frequent Pollster.com contributor Alan Abramowitz. His gravest concerns are with the leading questions in the issues portions of the poll on health care reform, but he also points to serious problems with the samples’ compositions that we were quick to flag. He observes that the samples deeply underrepresent younger votes, and that the youth subsets are so small that there’s no good way to “weight up” younger voters to a more proportionate level.

Three paragraphs of original writing, well a picture’s worth a thousand words, right?

But in all seriousness, here are maps of the Democratic primary for both Governor and Senator.

For Governor (on left), green is for Hynes, Orange for Quinn. For Senator (on right), green is for Giannoulias, Orange for Hoffman. The color scale is slightly different for Senate, since it was a three-person race, Cheryle Jackson won exactly one county. (Too many colors is part of the reason I’m not attempting to do the Republican race at this point in the night.)

As you can see, Quinn won where it mattered: his slight margin in Cook County (especially 10% margin in the city of Chicago), is what’s pulling him across the finish line. Frankly, I think Hynes screwed up with his Harold Washington ad that enraged plenty of voters. (On the bright side, I had been considering voting GOP for governor, but now that the GOP nominee is Bill Brady, the Dem is getting my vote.)

Hynes won huge in Metro-East (Madison County by 27%, St. Clair by 5%), Springfield (Sangamon County by 24%) and Decatur (Macon County by 27%). Hynes also added to his margin in North Central Illinois, winning Peoria by 2%, Bloomington (McLean County by 3%), and LaSalle/Peru by 4%. Again, Quinn won where it matters – he didn’t get completely demolished in the collar surrounding Cook County, losing Will County by 10% but eking out wins in both Lake and DuPage. Quinn’s strongest county? Jo Daivess (and you say we’re not southern!) in the northwest corner of the state, Hynes’ was Fayette in the souther-center of the state.

For Senate, Giannoulias did extremely well downstate: that solid green represents Giannoulias at 60%+ in a 3-way race. Hoffman held his own in the population centers in Chicagoland, especially the more affluent ones, stomping out wins in Lake and DuPage. Giannoulias won the city of Chicago itself, while Hoffman squeezed out an edge in the Cook suburbs. Giannoulias’ solid margins downstate were probably too much to overcome without definitive wins in Chicago and bigger wins in the suburbs. Hoffman’s best county was Lake (49.4%), worst was Rock Island (only 18.2%). Giannoulias’ best was 63.3% in Monroe, worst was Clark, the exact reverse of Cheryle Jackson. Her 23.7% in Cook was pretty important to her strong showing though.

Lastly, of note, the collar counties’ voting powers were diluted today thanks to astronomic turnout (in comparison) in Cook County:

550,000 were cast in Cook for the Democratic primary compared to 905,000 votes for Blagojevich in 2002 (when he had a very generic Dem quality), a 60% turnout ratio compared to 2002 Democratic turnout.

34,000 votes were cast in Lake compared to 76,000 for Blago (a 44% ratio). The ratio in DuPage was 42%, 37% in Kane County, and 45% in Will County. I’m guessing the (relative) high turnout in Cook County is due to our willingness to vote out Todd Stroger (incidentally, whoo Toni Preckwinkle!).

Once we get precinct results and I make the requisite shapefiles, we can break down the city of Chicago and suburban Cook County to compare areas of strength. I’ll probably do maps for that for Governor, Senate, and Cook County Board President. Let me know what other maps you’d like…

2:00am: We’ve crossed the threshold into 99% of the vote reporting; Quinn’s lead over Hynes is 5,400, while it’s a little thinner for Brady, who’s up on Dillard by 1,484. Even if we hit 100% reporting at some point tonight, both sides may head to recounts.

1:15am: Still waiting on more numbers, but here’s an interesting bit of trivia: despite winning only 21% of the vote, it looks like Brady won 61 of the state’s 102 counties.

12:50am: Things are still stalled at 98% reporting in the governor’s race. Quinn’s up by about 5,000 on the Dem side, 50.3% to 49.7%. On the GOP side, it’s Brady has a 1,700 vote edge over Dillard, 20.6% to 20.4% (with McKenna in 3rd at 18.9%). Who would’ve ever thought Brady, who’d polled in fourth place for the most part, would pull it out? Looks like he consolidated the Downstate vote while everyone else tore each other apart in the Chicago metro area.

12:07am: It looks like Dillard should be able to pick up about 1,300 votes in the oustanding precincts (most of which are in Cook County). But that won’t be enough.

11:53pm: What a wild ride — with 97% in, Bill Brady is back up over Kirk Dillard by over 2100 votes. How many times did the lead for this race change hands tonight?

11:44pm: Over in IL-10, Julie Hamos has conceded to Dan Seals.

11:39pm: 96.3% in now, and Quinn has expanded his margin over the past few minutes to a bit under 5200 votes. With a lot of the outstanding precincts coming from Cook, Quinn looks like he’ll end up on top — but just barely. For the GOP, Dillard leads Brady by a cool grand.

11:30pm: Ethan Hastert has conceded to Randy Hultgren. Aaron Blake says Hastert has pledged to help Hultgren, unlike the helpful Oberweis/Lauzen debacle. Sigh.

11:25pm: The kids down at the SSP Labs Skunkworks have been furiously scribbling on the backs of envelopes. They tell us that if the remaining precincts follow existing trends, Quinn is likely to pick up about 2,000 more votes on Hynes.

11:20pm: 93.9% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads by 0.6% (or 5,400 votes). The problem for Hynes is that half of the outstanding precincts are in Cook County — I’m not really sure if the outstanding votes downstate will give him enough juice to overcome that deficit.

11:10pm: With 93.1% now in, Quinn’s lead is now at 0.6%. For the GOP, Dillard has leap-frogged ahead of Brady by 2,200 votes.

11:07pm: Looks like Dan Seals has pulled out a squeaker in IL-10. With 99.2% of votes counted, he leads 22,267 to 21,605.

11:04pm: Note to Patrick Hughes and Adam Andrzejewski: The Illinois filing deadline for independent or third-party candidates is not until June 21st. You still have a second chance!

11:01pm: 91.3% of the vote is now in, and Quinn still leads by 0.8%. Note that the slightly Quinn-friendly DuPage County is now 86.5% in, and 8.3% of the vote is left uncounted in the more Quinn-friendly Cook.

10:56pm: For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by about 3000 votes. (McKenna, in turn, trails Dillard by another 3000.)

10:54pm: With 87% in, Quinn’s lead over Hynes is down to 0.8%. DuPage is now half-in, and 9.6% of precincts are outstanding in the marginally Quinn-friendly Cook County.

10:53pm: Shira Toeplitz of Roll Call says that Hoffman has conceded.

10:51pm: Randy Hultgren seems to have this one sewn up – 54-46 lead with only 12% outstanding.

10:47pm: The Hill’s Aaron Blake says Beth Coulson has conceded IL-10 – Bob Dold! wins.

10:41pm: 82.6% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead has been whittled down to 1.2%. For the GOP, Brady leads Dillard by almost 4000 votes.

10:36pm: With 81% of the vote in, Quinn holds stead at a 1.4% lead, but he’s only stemming the bleeding now that more votes are being counted in Cook (where just over 10% of the vote is outstanding). For the GOP, Brady now leads, and McKenna has slipped behind Dillard to third place. Plenty of time for that to flip around, though.

10:29pm: Photo finish? With 79% in, Quinn leads Hynes by 1.4%. For the GOP, McKenna, Brady, and Dillard are in a three-way race for the gube nod — the trio are separated by just 2000 votes.

10:23pm: They spark a fast joint in the 10th CD: Dan Seals is now up by almost 700 votes with just 2.5% remaining. And Randy Hultgren is now up 7 points.

10:22pm: Some more MN-Gov news: On the GOP side, Marty Seifert is cleaning up in the precinct caucuses, 55-34 over Tom Emmer. This will be hard for Emmer to claw his way back from… Seifert probably has to be seen as the favorite for the Republican nomination now.

10:20pm: 75% of the vote is now in, and Quinn’s lead inches down to 1.6%. And it looks like they’re taking a ganja break in IL-10.

10:17pm: 73% of the vote is now in, and Quinn leads Hynes by 1.8%. Alexi’s looking a lot more comfortable with a 4.2% lead.

10:12pm: More non-Illinois news: In Minnesota’s precinct-level caucuses, Margaret Anderson Kelliher and and RT Rybak have about 19% apiece. “Uncommitted” is in third with 14%.

10:08pm: 67% in, and Quinn’s lead has been cut down to 2.4%.

10:04pm: With 64% in (and 86% in Cook County), Quinn leads Hynes by 2.8%. Hynes is counting on the outstanding downstate votes to give him a win, but Quinn is also leading in the early DuPage county returns — and less than 10% of the vote has been counted there.

10:01pm: Sadly, in IL-03, Daniel Lipinski is winning his primary with about 77% of the vote. Not that anyone expected his unknown opponent to put up much of a fight. Still, Jorge Mujica is getting 22%… not much worse than the well-funded and somewhat-highly touted Mark Pera got in 2008 (26%).

9:56pm: It’s time for a new thread. Hultgren is up 52-48 over Hastert, with 40% reporting.

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RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico

9:57pm: Please join us in our new thread.

9:54pm: The Dem gov race is also tightening – Quinn is now up just 3.2% with 58% in.

9:53pm: Alexi’s lead is back down to 3.5% with 59% of the vote in – but is there any way for Hoffman to catch up?

9:50pm: IL-10 just got a lot tighter – Seals’ lead has shrunk to 48.1-46.5. But only 12% of precincts are left to count.

9:45pm: The GOP gov race is really, really tight. Andy McKenna is at 21.5, Kirk Dillard at 19.2, Jim Ryan at 17.2 and Bill Brady, also at 17.2 Adam Andrzejewski, the favorite of teabaggers and Lech Walesa, is all the way back in fifth place. My advice to him: Run as an independent this fall.

9:42pm: In non-Illinois news, Democrats have actually picked up an open seat in the Kentucky state House tonight, winning the seat that Republican Jimmy Higdon left behind after winning a special election to the state Senate. Nice score!

9:37pm: Quinn now leads by 4.6%, and Alexi by 4.3%.

9:35pm: Check out IL-14, where Randy Hultgren is ahead of Ethan Hastert by 51-49 with 9% in.

9:34pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 4.1% with 66% in. Bob Dold! leads by 9.

9:32pm: It looks like Alderman Toni Preckwinkle has won the Cook County Board Presidency.

9:31pm: Alexi is up by just 3.8% now, with 43% in. Quinn is up 5.

9:28pm: In the open-seat SoS Dem primary, it’s a dogfight between Miller and Krishnamoorthi – Miller is up 47-46.

9:25pm: In IL-10, Seals now leads Hamos by 5.3%, while Bob Dold! is cruising by over 8% with 54% in.

9:23pm: Quinn now leads by 5.6%, and Alexi is up by 4.2%. For the GOP, McKenna and Dillard are now both ahead of ex-AG Jim Ryan.

9:17pm: In IL-14, Ethan Hastert has a mere 51-49 lead over Randy Hultgren, with just 3% reporting. Brothers and sisters, let us all pray for a protracted, nasty recount.

9:15pm: In IL-11, Adam Kinzinger is cruising with 62% of the vote. Is that low? Is that high? You tell me.

9:13pm: In IL-08, Some Dude Joe Walsh leads the pack with 34% with about 42% of votes counted. The winner here gets the privilege of taking on Melissa Bean.

9:11pm: In IL-07, Danny Davis, who had vacillated between running for re-election and seeking the Cook County Board Presidency, is taking about two thirds of the vote. Not terrific for an incumbent, but the remainder is split between several candidates.

9:05pm: As for the gube race, Quinn leads Hynes by 6.8 points on the nose, while Alexi leads Hoffman by 4.5%. Hoffman has widened his lead in Lake County, but that’s more than offset by Giannoulias’ strong performance downstate. With almost 39% reporting in IL-10, Seals leads Hamos by 51.5-43.1. For the Republicans, Bob Dold! leads Coulson by about 10 points.

8:55pm: The thing is, it seems like most of the big names on tonight’s ballot call Chicago home… so it’s hard to say who, if anyone, ought to be cleaning up in the Windy City.

8:52pm: Dave Wasserman tweets that Hoffman is only up narrowly in Lake County, a place where he should have expected to do well, and suggests it’s a good sign for Alexi.

8:49pm: In IL-10, Dan Seals is up 51-44 over Julie Hamos with about 8% reporting. Bob Dold leads Elizabeth Coulson for the GOP nod, 38-30.

8:47pm: To no one’s surprise, Mark Kirk is running away with the GOP nomination. My advice to Patrick Hughes: Run as an independent this fall.

8:45pm: So with 16% of the vote in on the Dem side, Quinn has a narrow 53-47 lead. For the GOPers, Andy McKenna leads with 27%, while Ryan, Dillard and Andrzejewski are at 20, 19, and 17 respectively.

8:42pm: Politico has much quicker results. In the Senate race, it’s 37A-30H-26C, while Quinn is up 54-46 in the gov contest.

8:39pm: I don’t know why the AP is being so slow – Lake County has already counted a bunch of votes. FWIW, they have Hoffman and Hynes up.

8:27pm: Congrats to the folks in DeKalb County, who clock in with the first precinct (out of 11,215) of the night.

8:24pm: Pass the dutchie ‘pon the left hand side….

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Polls are now closed in Illinois, where we’ve got hot Democratic and Republican primaries up and down the ticket. (For a full review of the biggest races to watch, check out DavidNYC’s preview.) We’ll be using this thread to track the results as they come in.

RESULTS: Associated Press | Chicago Tribune | Sun-Times | Politico