SSP Daily Digest: 4/21 (Afternoon Edition)

FL-Sen: The big rumor, all over the Interwebs today (courtesy of Southern Political Report/Insider Advantage’s Matt Towery), is that Charlie Crist has fully resolved to run as an independent for Senate. The announcement will be “sooner rather than later,” and he’s drafting the speech for the announcement. There’s no confirmation from anyone else, though. Crist’s camp has denied they’ve been scrubbing all references to “Republican” from Crist’s websites in preparation for the big switch. Meanwhile, GOP establishment support within Florida for Crist seems to be cratering, as current state House speaker Larry Cretul threw his lot in with Rubio today. John McCain also said today that he can’t support Crist’s independent candidacy. (Wow, that’s really going out on a limb there, Mr. Maverick.)

AK-Sen: Lisa Murkowski may be one of the least endangered Senate incumbents out there, with no Democrats of note stepping forward to challenge her. Her GOP primary may turn out to require at least a little effort, though, as a challenger of at least something-of-note has stepped forward: former judge Joe Miller, whose only elective experience is losing a Fairbanks-area state House race. Miller is sounding teabaggy themes about the Constitution and socialism, but has endorsements from three state legislators, all from the socially conservative side of the GOP.

IN-Sen: Hey, big spender! John Hostettler reports raising $37K in the first quarter, spending $27K, and ending with $10K CoH.

NC-Sen: Cal Cunningham’s fundraising haul for Q1 was a weak $345K, leaving him $478K CoH. That’s still more than Elaine Marshall, who has $181K. Pundits are left wondering if the DSCC (who seem to prefer Cunningham) will intervene on Cunningham’s behalf to get him out of the primary, where polls have shown the former state Senator lagging behind Marshall, who as SoS is known statewide.

NV-Sen: Sue Lowden would do well to heed the old expression about finding oneself in a hole and stopping digging. After her disastrous comments about bartering chickens to doctors in exchange for surgeries and MRIs, she was given ample opportunity to back down, but she doubled down yesterday, saying no, she was serious, and now her spokesperson is tripling down today, saying, no, she was still serious, and presenting a quote from one doctor who says that, yes, he does accept payment in alfalfa and bathtub form. Meanwhile, over in the other Senate seat, badly-damaged John Ensign is also on the receiving end of a lot of derision after reporting $50 in receipts in Q1. TPM actually tracked Ensign’s one donor down, who shrugged off Ensign’s problems, saying “All men are dogs.”

UT-Sen: Mitt Romney will be at the Utah Republican convention next month to lend his support to faltering incumbent Bob Bennett. I’m not sure if Romney will be able to vote for Bennett, though, as Utah may not be one of the approximately 14 states in which he has residency.

WA-Sen: Dino Rossi seems content to pad out his waiting game all the way up to Washington’s June 11 filing deadline (seemingly blissfully unaware that he needs to raise a metric ton of money ASAP if he’s going to run). That’s not sitting well with John Cornyn, who’s amping up the public statements telling Rossi to get his ass in gear.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman’s out with an internal poll via McLaughlin, giving her a 53-22 edge over Steve Poizner in the GOP primary. Some of you may also have noticed a Rasmussen poll out today showing the needle zooming back in Jerry Brown’s direction in the general. I’m very puzzled about this one… why is Rasmussen, of all people, putting up better California results for Dems than the Field Poll? I’m wondering if California is intensely blue enough that Rasmussen’s LV model works in Dems’ favor somehow.

MI-Gov: I suppose it was only a matter of time before someone went after Republican AG Mike Cox over the alleged coverup of a party-gone-very-awry at then-mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s place in 2002. The ad (a small buy on Lansing-area radio stations) attacking Cox is from Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, who, if the name sounds familiar, is the handiwork of Rick Reed, auteur of the Swift Boat Vets ads. Fingers are being pointed at primary rival Rick Snyder, but he says he didn’t have anything to do with it.

NY-19: This ought to ease the risk of a NY-23 type situation in the 19th: Nan Hayworth, from the county club wing of the GOP and facing some teabagging opposition in the primary, managed to nail down the endorsement of the Putnam County Conservative Party. Of course, exurban Putnam County is only a small minority of the district, so we’ll have to see what happens in the other more populous counties.

NY-29: Speaking of New York and teabaggers, it looks like Corning mayor Tom Reed  — a moderate who managed to deter bigger GOP names from jumping into the race following Eric Massa’s implosion — is now drawing some teabagging opposition in the GOP primary from small businessman Angelo Campini.

NY-St. Sen.: It’s kind of sad that I had to debate over whether a New York state Senate majority leader’s office getting raided by the FBI and the state AG’s office even qualifies as newsworthy because it’s so totally expected. At any rate, Pedro Espada, who mere months ago held the linchpin of power in New York, now seems on his way to an ignominious end, as the scandal over Soundview Health Center heats up.

NY-St. Ass.: This feels more like “Where Are They Now?” than an actual state Assembly story, but Dede Scozzafava, who went in a few short weeks from likely U.S. Representative to historical footnote, has decided that she’s through with the Assembly (having gotten sacked from her deputy leadership position). She’ll be retiring at the end of her term.

Governors: Here’s a fun conversation piece: CREW has released its list of the 10 worst governors, in terms of corruption, unethical behavior, and general malfeasance. In a surprise to me, Jim Gibbons didn’t top the list. (I’ll give you a hint of who did: he’s thinking of running for President in 2012, and he seems to be made partly of Foghorn Leghorn DNA.) Only two Dems made the cut: David Paterson and Bill Richardson.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/7 (Afternoon Edition)

FL-Sen: Remember the good ol’ days of 2009, when Charlie Crist’s huge cash advantage would make him inevitable even if insurgent Marco Rubio somehow caught on with the teabagger set? Yeah, I’m having trouble remembering too. Rubio just brought in $3.6 million this quarter, the best of any candidate reporting so far. (Crist has yet to report, and even if he loses the quarter may yet lead in total cash.) Rubio may be getting himself into some trouble, though, with the all-important senior demographic in Florida, though, as his recent comments about changing Social Security (by, among others, raising the eligibility age) may not sit well with the state’s 3.5 million beneficiaries.

IL-Sen: Looks like the biggest fundraising news today is coming from the GOP side of the aisle: Mark Kirk had a strong quarter, too, as he pulled in $2.2 million, leaving him with $3 million in the bank.

NY-Sen: With all the state’s second-tier Republican talent interested in taking on Kirsten Gillibrand, where they might at least have some hope of an upset, no one’s signing up for the truly quixotic task of taking on Chuck Schumer in the other Senate race. That may change, as political consultant Jay Townsend is talking about stepping out from behind the curtain and trying his hand as a candidate. Townsend is currently working for Nan Hayworth’s campaign in NY-19.

WI-Sen: A new Republican is stepping forward to run in the primary for the right to take on Russ Feingold… and, no, it’s not Tommy Thompson. Dick Leinenkugel, a former state Commerce secretary (an appointed position), plans to enter the race soon regardless of whether or not Thompson gets in. (Cillizza says, as far as Thompson goes, he’ll decide by early May and “most informed speculation seems to suggest he will take a pass.”) If Leinenkugel’s name is somehow evocative of hungover collegiate Sunday mornings, he’s from the family that owns the similarly-named brewery.

GA-Gov: A sudden late entrant to the already-crowded Republican field in the Georgia governor’s race is bringing a lot of his own money with him. Ray Boyd is a wealthy real estate executive, and he kicked off his campaign by writing himself a $2 million check. He promises to reach out to the state’s teabaggers for support. The newest Insider Advantage poll of the GOP primary field doesn’t include Boyd; it finds Insurance Comm. John Oxendine with a solid lead at 26. Ex-Sos Karen Handel is at 18, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal is at 9, state Sen. Eric Johnson is at 5, and “Other” racks up 11, with 31% still undecided.

MD-Gov: Ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich officially kicked off his campaign to get back his old job from Martin O’Malley in November. The DNC, however, is trying to tie Ehrlich today to his former #2 man, who’s gone on to rather overshadow Ehrlich for the last few news cycles: ex-LG and current RNC boss Michael Steele.

MI-Gov: There’s another EPIC-MRA poll of the Michigan governor’s race, suggesting they’re going to be polling pretty frequently. This time, they find the likeliest matchup, Democratic state House speaker Andy Dillon vs. Rep. Peter Hoekstra, goes to Hoekstra, 40-33 (one month ago Hoekstra led 41-37). Mike Cox beats Dillon 43-34 and Rick Snyder beats Dillon 42-30, while Lansing mayor Virg Bernero loses to Hoekstra 42-29, to Cox 44-30, and to Snyder 42-26. Dillon leads the Dem primary 22-15 (with 11 for Alma Wheeler Smith), while Hoekstra leads the GOP primary at 27, with Cox at 21, Snyder at 15, Mike Bouchard at 13, and Tom George at 3.

NV-Gov: Here’s some strategic thinking from the camp of Reid the Younger. The Committee to Protect Nevada Jobs (headed by Rory Reid’s consultant Dan Hart) is running ads bolstering incumbent Gov. Jim Gibbons and attacking GOP primary rival Brian Sandoval (who’ll provide a much more difficult opponent for Reid than the thoroughly-trashed Gibbons).

RI-Gov: The Association of Democratic City and Town Chairpersons — the umbrella group for the Dem party chairs of each of the state’s 39 municipalities — issued endorsements for a number of key races. Maybe there’s some tension between them and the state party, as they endorsed Treasurer Frank Caprio for the Governor’s race (instead of AG Patrick Lynch) and in RI-01, Providence mayor David Cicilline (instead of former state party chair William Lynch, brother of Patrick). They also endorsed Jim Langevin in RI-02, where he faces a primary challenge from a state Rep.

WY-Gov: Democrats in Wyoming seem to have moved somewhere back behind square one in their search for a gubernatorial candidate. Their seeming best bet in the wake of Gov. Dave Freudenthal’s decision not to go for re-election, state Sen. Mike Massie, has decided to run for state superintendent of public instruction instead, where he’ll face incumbent GOPer Jim McBride.

DE-AL: The NRCC has to be happy to get something of an upgrade in the open seat race in Delaware, shaping up to be their likeliest loss in the House. Michelle Rollins, a wealthy philanthropist, has confirmed that she’ll run. She hasn’t run for office before, but the DCCC already started attacking her several weeks ago, indicating they take her (or at least her wallet) more seriously than the Some Dudes already running. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney is the Democratic candidate, and has had a long head-start on the race.

MA-09: Progressives looking for a primary challenge to Stephen Lynch (in the wake of his “no” vote on HCR) will have to look somewhere other than Needham town meeting member Harmony Wu; she announced via Facebook that she won’t be running.

MI-01: Seems like Rep. Bart Stupak got his feelings hurt after taking a serious pounding from the left, from the right, and from pretty much all points in between during his last-minute obstruction of the health care reform passage. He’s saying that, although he has the signatures prepared for another run, he’s not ruling out retirement this year. Assuming he runs again, he faces a primary from the pro-choice left as well as a general election challenge from angry teabaggers on his right. If he does retire, Menhen is already on top of it in the diaries, listing some potential replacement candidates.

NY-23: Paul Maroun, a Franklin County Legislator who got passed over by local GOP heads in favor of Dede Scozzafava in the special election in the 23rd, had been planning to run in the primary this year, but just decided against it. That leaves only two remaining contenders, Doug Hoffman (who ran on the Conservative Party line last year and is still doing his part to cheese off the local GOP), and self-funding investor Matt Doheny.

PA-15: Bethlehem mayor John Callahan keeps on being one of the Dems’ few bright lights among its challengers this cycle, pulling in $320K this quarter, with $825K CoH. For more numbers, Reid Wilson’s out with today’s fundraising wrapup at the Hotline, with other numbers worth checking out including everybody in PA-Gov and FL-Gov.

DNC: Michael Steele rolled out the RNC’s gaudy committee fundraising numbers early as a means of distracting the media from, well, everything else that’s happening at the RNC. Unfortunately, that kind of backfired, as the DNC put out numbers that topped the RNC’s already-high numbers. The DNC pulled in more than $13 million in March (compared to $11 million for the RNC), showing (via the HCR victory) that nothing succeeds like success.

RNC: Speaking of the RNC’s numbers, here’s an interesting accounting trick that’s just come to light: the RNC had a deal going with the Michigan GOP to give money back and forth to each other, in order to inflate the RNC’s fundraising numbers. Not really the day that Michael Steele would have chosen for this news to come out.

Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 13

Ever take the week off, and come back to find your inbox full of spam?

AL-Gov (3/29, likely voters):

Artur Davis (D): 33

Bradley Byrne (R): 50

Some other: 9

Not sure: 9

Artur Davis (D): 36

Kay Ivey (R): 43

Some other: 12

Not sure: 8

Artur Davis (D): 35

Tim James (R): 49

Some other: 10

Not sure: 7

Artur Davis (D): 44

Roy Moore (R): 40

Some other: 11

Not sure: 6

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Bradley Byrne (R): 43

Some other: 11

Not sure: 13

Ron Sparks (D): 33

Kay Ivey (R): 39

Some other: 15

Not sure: 13

Ron Sparks (D): 34

Tim James (R): 38

Some other: 13

Not sure: 14

Ron Sparks (D): 40

Roy Moore (R): 35

Some other: 15

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AL-Sen (3/29, likely voters):

William Barnes (D): 32

Richard Shelby (R): 59

Some other: 3

Not sure: 6

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AR-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (39)

John Boozman (R): 51 (48)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 7 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (40)

Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (45)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)

Kim Hendren (R): 51 (43)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 36 (41)

Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (43)

Some other: 7 (7)

Not sure: 8 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D): 35 (38)

Jim Holt (R): 51 (45)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 7 (10)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (33)

John Boozman (R): 48 (55)

Some other: 8 (6)

Not sure: 11 (9)

Bill Halter (D): 36 (37)

Gilbert Baker (R): 44 (43)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 12 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (35)

Kim Hendren (R): 42 (42)

Some other: 10 (7)

Not sure: 13 (15)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (35)

Curtis Coleman (R): 40 (38)

Some other: 10 (9)

Not sure: 13 (18)

Bill Halter (D): 34 (38)

Jim Holt (R): 43 (42)

Some other: 9 (8)

Not sure: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Gov (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 36 (35)

Bill McCollum (R): 47 (48)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 12 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

FL-Sen (3/18, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (32)

Charlie Crist (R): 45 (48)

Some other: 11 (11)

Not sure: 10 (9)

Kendrick Meek (D): 34 (31)

Marco Rubio (R): 48 (51)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±3%)

HI-Gov (3/24, likely voters):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 54

Duke Aiona (R): 31

Some other: 6

Not sure: 9

Mufi Hannemann (D): 50

Duke Aiona (R): 29

Some other: 14

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

HI-Sen (3/24, likely voters):

Dan Inouye (D): 65

Linda Lingle (R): 25

Some other: 3

Not sure: 6

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Gov (3/17, likely voters, 2/18 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D): 36 (37)

Terry Branstad (R): 52 (53)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 6 (4)

Chet Culver (D): 40 (40)

Bob Vander Plaats (R): 42 (46)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 11 (7)

Chet Culver (D): 40

Rod Roberts (R): 38

Some other: 10

Not sure: 13

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Gov (3/23, likely voters):

Keith Allred (D): 28

Butch Otter (R): 60

Some other: 3

Not sure: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ID-Sen (3/23, likely voters):

Generic Democrat (D): 28

Mike Crapo (R): 60

Some other: 3

Not sure: 9

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (D) (3/24, likely voters):

Andy Dillon (D): 12

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 10

Virg Bernero (D): 8

Some other: 17

Not sure: 53

(MoE: ±4%)

MI-Gov (R) (3/24, likely voters):

Peter Hoekstra (R): 27

Rick Snyder (R): 18

Mike Cox (R): 13

Mike Bouchard (R): 6

Some other: 5

Not sure: 32

(MoE: ±4%)

NC-Sen (3/22, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 35 (34)

Richard Burr (R): 51 (50)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Cal Cunningham (D): 32 (29)

Richard Burr (R): 51 (51)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):

Earl Pomeroy (D): 44 (40)

Rick Berg (R): 51 (46)

Some other: 1 (3)

Not sure: 4 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (3/23-24, likely voters, 2/9-10 in parentheses):

Tracy Potter (D): 25 (17)

John Hoeven (R): 68 (71)

Some other: 2 (4)

Not sure: 5 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NM-Gov (3/24, likely voters):

Diane Denish (D): 51

Susana Martinez (R): 32

Some other: 7

Not sure: 10

Diane Denish (D): 52

Pete Domenici Jr. (R): 35

Some other: 6

Not sure: 6

Diane Denish (D): 45

Allen Weh (R): 35

Some other: 7

Not sure: 13

Diane Denish (D): 52

Janice Arnold-Jones (R): 30

Some other: 6

Not sure: 12

Diane Denish (D): 43

Doug Turner (R): 34

Some other: 7

Not sure: 16

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NY-Gov (3/29, likely voters, 3/1 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 52 (55)

Rick Lazio (R): 29 (30)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 13 (10)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 51 (56)

Carl Paladino (R): 28 (27)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 15 (11)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 50

Steve Levy (R): 26

Some other: 7

Not sure: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D): 45 (38)

John Kasich (R): 46 (49)

Some other: 2 (6)

Not sure: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (3/30, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 38 (39)

Rob Portman (R): 43 (44)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 14 (12)

Jennifer Brunner (D): 38 (37)

Rob Portman (R): 45 (43)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 13 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

RI-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/25 in parentheses):

Frank Caprio (D): 28 (27)

John Robitaille (R): 22 (19)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 39 (37)

Not sure: 11 (17)

Patrick Lynch (D): 22 (24)

John Robitaille (R): 26 (22)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 37 (38)

Not sure: 15 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 44 (45)

Chris Nelson (R): 42 (38)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 9 (11)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 46 (49)

Kristi Noem (R): 35 (34)

Some other: 8 (4)

Not sure: 10 (13)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D): 45 (51)

Blake Curd (R): 33 (33)

Some other: 8 (5)

Not sure: 14 (12)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-Gov (3/25, likely voters, 2/23 in parentheses):

Scott Heidepriem (D): 32 (32)

Dennis Daugaard (R): 49 (41)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 13 (19)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 37 (34)

Dave Knudson (R): 32 (31)

Some other: 13 (13)

Not sure: 19 (22)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 39 (37)

Gordon Howie (R): 34 (29)

Some other: 9 (12)

Not sure: 17 (22)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

TN-Gov (3/22, likely voters):

Mike McWherter (D): 27

Bill Haslam (R): 45

Some other: 5

Not sure: 23

Mike McWherter (D): 29

Ron Ramsey (R): 43

Some other: 5

Not sure: 23

Mike McWherter (D): 31

Zach Wamp (R): 41

Some other: 7

Not sure: 22

Kim McMillan (D): 26

Bill Haslam (R): 46

Some other: 5

Not sure: 23

Kim McMillan (D): 25

Ron Ramsey (R): 43

Some other: 8

Not sure: 24

Kim McMillan (D): 29

Zach Wamp (R): 42

Some other: 5

Not sure: 25

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WY-Gov (3/25, likely voters):

Mike Massie (D): 25

Matt Mead (R): 43

Some other: 8

Not sure: 24

Mike Massie (D): 23

Ron Micheli (R): 45

Some other: 8

Not sure: 25

Mike Massie (D): 26

Rita Meyer (R): 43

Some other: 7

Not sure: 25

Mike Massie (D): 26

Colin Simpson (R): 41

Some other: 8

Not sure: 25

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SSP Daily Digest: 3/26 (Afternoon Edition)

CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is still lagging in the single digits in polling, but prominent conservatives keep coming to his aid. He just got the endorsement of libertarian-minded Arizona Rep. Jeff Flake, and also of the Tea Party Express (the corporate wing of the teabaggers’ movement).

DE-Sen: “Repeal!” of HCR has become the rallying cry for almost every Republican candidate for federal office lately, but Rep. Mike Castle has stood out from the crowd with his reluctance, saying repeal is not “realistic.” Now that’s turning into an issue in his GOP primary, where his far-right opponent, marketing consultant and occasional Fox News contributor Christine O’Donnell, is accusing him of “breaking faith” with Delaware voters by not supporting it. A few other of the more sensible GOPers running in blue states, like Rob Simmons and Tom Campbell, are also keeping repeal at arms-length.

FL-Sen: Good news for Charlie Crist, I suppose: Mason-Dixon has polled the GOP primary, and they find that he’s losing to Marco Rubio by a mere 11 points (much less than a number of other pollsters, ranging from Rasmussen to R2K, have found): 48-37. Crist leads Democratic Rep. Kendrick Meek 50-26, while Rubio leads Meek 44-29, although half of respondents didn’t know who Meek was. Meanwhile, you might have forgotten (as I often did) that ex-New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith was, as far as he was concerned, in the GOP primary as well. Well, not anymore: Smith shuttered his campaign today, citing (big surprise) fundraising problems.

WA-Sen: If there’s one group that should be getting behind Dino Rossi’s possible Senate candidacy, it’s the Washington Association of Realtors. Not only are they a usually conservative-leaning organization with close ties to the builders’ lobby, but also Rossi is one of them: his day job is real estate salesperson. So, hot on the heels of yesterday’s R2K poll, here’s another problem Rossi needs to seriously contemplate: WAR just endorsed Patty Murray.

CA-Gov: Remember Pete Wilson? The former Governor is largely responsible for turning the California Republican Party’s name into mud, among Latinos, in the 1990s with his support for anti-immigrant Proposition 187 — a decision that may have had short-term benefits but has turned into a long-term disaster as the state’s demographics change. The California Accountability Project is shining the spotlight back on Wilson in his new job: campaign chair for Meg Whitman.

MI-Gov: Um, no. Just no. Mop-topped attorney Geoffrey Fieger is best known for his defense of Jack Kevorkian, but he also somehow wound up with the 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nomination and went on to lose to John Engler by a 62-38 margin after a slew of bone-headed remarks. Fieger now says he’s considering another run at the Democratic nomination.

NY-Gov (pdf): Marist has a new poll of the New York gubernatorial race, finding that party-switching Suffolk Co. Executive Steven Levy is in for a rude reception from the GOP. He’s losing the primary to ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 53-21. Andrew Cuomo dispatches either one, 61-30 against Lazio or 65-26 against Levy. Meanwhile, the saga of David Paterson (with a 16/80 job rating according to Marist) keeps getting sadder/weirder/yuckier, with a NYT article today about his attempts to secure an endorsement from the woman involved in a domestic dispute with one of his top aides.

TN-Gov: The GOP side in the gubernatorial race shrank today, with the withdrawal of Shelby County DA Bill Gibbons from the race. He had the advantage of being the only western Tennessee candidate in the primary, but he never got very far on the fundraising front. Meanwhile, among what’s left of the Democratic field, beer baron Mike McWherter just got an endorsement from Memphis’s new mayor, A.C. Wharton. McWherter’s only remaining Dem opponent is former state House majority leader Kim McMillan.

AR-03, PA-07: Mike Huckabee offered up two different endorsements, one right on his home turf. He endorsed former state Rep. Doug Matayo in the open seat race to succeed John Boozman in the dark-red 3rd. The other place seems kind of odd: endorsing ostensibly moderate Pat Meehan in the Dem-leaning, heavily Catholic, decidedly non-Southern-fried PA-07.

HI-01: The final candidate list for the May 22 all-mail special election in the 1st is out. The only three candidates of consequence are, as expected, Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case for the Dems, and Charles Djou for the GOP. With the winner-takes-all nature, minor candidates may weigh heavily on the outcome, but there’s a pretty even split with three extra no-name Democrats and four extra GOPers, as well as four independents.

KS-03: Stephene Moore, the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore, backed off slightly from reports yesterday that she was entering the race to succeed him. She said that she was going to continue thinking about it and would have a formal statement soon. Chris Cillizza has sources, though, who say it’s a done deal.

IL-LG: It sounds like Pat Quinn has settled on something of an outsider (albeit one with a famous family name) for his Lt. Governor running mate: Sheila Simon, the daughter of former Sen. (and former LG) Paul Simon. She’s a law professor at Southern Illinois Univ., whose only political experience seems to be losing a race for Carbondale mayor. State Sen. Susan Garrett appears to have been bypassed over not supporting Quinn’s income tax plan, which Simon supports. Meanwhile, supporters of African-American Rep. Art Turner are warning of depressed black turnout in November if Quinn doesn’t opt for Turner instead.

RNC: A decision from the trial-level U.S. District Court in Washington DC was a fundraising setback for the RNC, which wanted to be able to raise unlimited soft money from corporations and individuals but didn’t receive the green light to do so.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/26 (Morning Edition)

  • GA-Sen: Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson was released from the hospital after being treated for a bacterial infection and dehydration. Sounds like he’s okay, but he’ll be out of commission for at least a week.
  • MI-Gov, MI-09: Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard is batting down rumors that he may switch races from Michigan’s gubernatorial race to a run against Democratic frosh Rep. Gary Peters. The NRCC apparently denies that they’re wooing Bouchard, and his campaign manager adds: “Mike is committed to running for governor. He’s not considering that congressional seat or any other race.” (JL)
  • GA-12: In yesterday’s digest, we mentioned the increasing heat that Dem Rep. John Barrow was facing from back home over his vote against healthcare reform. It looks like some of that discontent may spill over into the form of a legitimate primary challenge. (No, ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas, lover of hats, does not qualify as a serious threat.) Current state Sen. Lester Jackson, who lobbied Barrow heavily on the HCR vote, says that he finds the prospect of a primary challenge against Barrow to be “appealing”, and state Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond is another name being batted around by Georgia Democrats eager to give this out-of-whack incumbent the boot. (JL)
  • MD-01: Businessman Rob Fisher, a “cyber-security firm” owner, has announced that he’ll take on state Sen. Andy Harris in the GOP primary to face Dem Rep. Frank Kratovil. (JL)
  • PA-06: Doug Pike has asked J Street, a liberal pro-Israel group, to remove his name from their list of endorsees and also says he’ll return $6,000 the group raised for him.
  • WA-08: GOP Rep. Dave Reichert is in the hospital for treatment of a chronic subdural hematoma. His office says the procedure was successful and that he’ll be discharged in a few days. Jwaalk has more here.
  • VA-05: Terry McAuliffe just did a solid for a fellow Virginian: He sent out an email blast soliciting funds for Rep. Tom Perriello, specifically citing his pro-healthcare vote (and the fact that he’s now in Sarah Palin’s “crosshairs”). I’m told that T-Mac’s list contains over 75K names, which is pretty monster.
  • Census: The good news: Several lawmakers are planning ahead – way ahead – to ensure that the 2020 Census isn’t plagued by the problems that have affected the 2010 Census. The bad news: Tom Coburn is involved. WTF?
  • Healthcare: The hullabaloo over the winger AG lawsuits against the healthcare reform bill just gets dumber and dumber. Wisconsin’s Republican attorney general, J.B. Van Hollen, apparently had to seek permission from the governor to file suit against the bill – and got smacked down hard by Dem Jim Doyle. On the flipside, moron Gov. Jim Gibbons of Nevada is berating his Democratic AG, Catherine Cortez Masto, for not jumping into the fray. Gibbons has been demanding an analysis of the constitutionality of the new law from Masto, sneering that it’s a task worthy of a “second-year law school” student. No shit, Jimbo – the answer is “shut up.”
  • White House: Again, not news – WH Press Sec’y Bob Gibbs said that the White House will treat all Dems equally in terms of helping them this fall, whether they voted in favor of healthcare reform or against it. No kidding. What else is the president’s political team supposed to say?
  • SSP Daily Digest: 3/23 (Afternoon Edition)

    NC-Sen: The newest Elon University poll of North Carolina finds that, as with most pollsters, that Richard Burr is strangely anonymous for a Senator: he has a favorable of 34/17. His best-known Democratic competitor, SoS Elaine Marshall, is at 18/8. The poll doesn’t contain head-to-heads, and also, bear in mind that it only polls “residents,” not even registered voters, which would explain the super-low awareness.

    TX-Sen: 20 of Texas’s Republican House members wrote a letter to Kay Bailey Hutchison, asking her to reconsider and stay on as Senator. (Recall that she planned to resign once she was done “fighting health care.”) I wonder if the letter was signed by Joe Barton, who was pretty public about his desire to take over that seat back when a resignation seemed likelier.

    UT-Sen: Tonight’s the night we get our first hard impression of what degree of trouble Bob Bennett is in. Tonight are neighborhood caucuses, where delegates to the state convention are elected. A particularly ultra-conservative-skewing convention could pose some trouble to Bennett, although with so many GOP challengers, it seems likely no one will hit the 60% mark at the convention needed to avoid a primary.

    CT-Gov: You might recognize these numbers from last week; we’ve been waiting for Quinnipiac to release general election numbers in the Governor’s race but they just don’t seem to be forthcoming, so here are their primary numbers. On the Dem side, Ned Lamont is leading at 28, followed by former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy at 18, Mary Glassman at 4, Rudy Marconi at 2, and Juan Figueroa at 1. (Susan Bysiewicz has a big edge over George Jepsen, 54-10, in the AG primary, despite concerns about her eligibility for the job.) On the GOP side, Tom Foley is dominating at 30, followed by Lt. Gov Michael Fedele collapsing down to 4, Danbury mayor Mark Boughton at 4, ex-Rep. Larry DeNardis at 2, and Oz Griebel and Jeff Wright at 2.

    CA-Gov: Wondering how Meg Whitman pulled into a huge lead in the primary and a small lead in the general in California governor’s race? She’s spent a mind-boggling $27 million on her race so far this year (for a total of $46 million), compared with Steve Poizner’s $3 million and Jerry Brown’s $142K.

    OR-Gov: Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley is the first candidate to hit the TV airwaves in the Oregon governor’s race so far, touting his “outsider” credentials.

    PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett, who oh just coincidentally happens to be running for Governor this year, finally got a conviction in the Bonusgate investigation, against former state Rep. Mike Veon and several of his staffers. The timing is certainly helpful to Corbett, for whom the investigation has been dragging out and the possibility of mistrials (or no convictions before November) was starting to loom. Trials against several other former Democratic House leaders, including GOPer John Perzel and Dem Bill DeWeese, are still in the pipeline.

    WY-Gov: The Democrats are about to land a gubernatorial candidate: attorney Paul Hickey, who plans an announcement later this week. If the name is familiar, he’s the son of former Governor J.J. Hickey. Democratic State Sen. Mike Massie hasn’t ruled out a run yet either, although he may run for one of the statewide offices.

    IL-11: Here’s one more district that hasn’t been high on people’s watch lists but will need to be monitored, at least if a new internal poll from Republican pollster POS is to be believed. They find their patron, Adam Kinzinger, leading freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson 44-38.

    MA-09: With primary challenges moving onto the radar against HCR “no” votes Jason Altmire and Mike Arcuri, another one may be taking shape: Needham Town Meeting member (and, well, college classmate of mine) Harmony Wu has pulled papers for the race and is gauging local sentiment for a primary run against Stephen Lynch.

    NY-01: Whoever faces off against Tim Bishop for the Republicans is going to have to fight through an arduous primary to get there. Any hopes of an easy coronation for Randy Altschuler seem to have vaporized, as now Chris Cox (Republican party insider and Nixon grandson) is setting his own Wall Street-powered fundraising operation in motion. And a 3rd option, former SEC prosecutor George Demos, has had his own fundraising success.

    NY-20: One more Republican, Queensbury town supervisor Dan Stec, bailed out of the field today, suggesting that the GOP is finally coalescing behind retired Col. Chris Gibson as a standard-bearer against freshman Dem Rep. Scott Murphy, in what’s one of their slowest races to take shape.

    OK-05: Finally, we have a Democrat on tap for the open seat race in Oklahoma’s dark-red 5th, where there’s already a half-dozen GOPers jousting. Tom Guild is secretary of the Oklahoma County Democratic Party, and was a poli sci professor at Univ. of Central Oklahoma for many years.

    PA-11: Things got easier for Lou Barletta in the race in the 11th, where his Republican primary challenger, Chris Paige dropped out, citing family concerns. Paige, an attorney, was underfunded but had delivered some surprisingly-hard hits to Barletta, especially on Barletta’s signature issue of immigration.

    SC-01: The Club for Growth weighed into another GOP primary in a reddish open seat, endorsing state Rep. Tim Scott. Scott faces off in the primary against several well-known last names: Carroll Campbell III and Paul Thurmond.

    HCR: The Republican pivot from health care reform to health care repeal has some implications in the gubernatorial races. Rep. Peter Hoekstra is going full-on repeal, stopping by Sunday’s teabagger rally to pledge to fight that battle. It’s also showing up in a number of races where the Republican AG is running for Governor and joined the multi-AG suit against HCR on easily-rebuttable 10th Amendment grounds (hint to teabaggers: read Scalia’s opinion in Raich) – many in dark-red states where it probably helps more than hurts (like Henry McMaster in South Carolina). There are a few blue state AGs involved, though, like Tom Corbett (although he probably feels like he has a safety cushion to do so, thanks to his Bonusgate-related popularity). Most puzzling, though, is Washington’s Rob McKenna, who got where he is only by acting moderate. Throwing off his well-maintained moderate mask and joining forces with the wackjob likes of Ken Cuccinelli seems like a weird gamble for his widely-expected 2012 run, where success is utterly dependent on making inroads among suburban moderates.

    SSP Daily Digest: 3/22 (Afternoon Edition)

    CA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell is getting an endorsement that may boost his cred with the socially conservative right: from the man who couldn’t even beat Gray Davis, Bill Simon. Simon hopes socially conservative voters will still take a look at Campbell’s fiscal credentials.

    IN-Sen: Retiring Evan Bayh hasn’t said anything specific about what he’s doing with his gigantic $13 million federal war chest. But a spokesperson gives some hints: “What he has said is that you can expect him to help the Democratic Senate nominee in Indiana and to help like-minded Democrats – people who want to get things done, who are practical and who want to reach out and forge principled compromises.”

    KY-Sen: Jack Conway is pointing out an important ideological fracture line, which seems to have gotten little media attention in the Democratic primary in the Bluegrass State. Conway says he supports the health care legislation passed yesterday, while Dan Mongiardo has previously said he’d “throw it out and start over.”

    NH-Sen: Speaking of HCR, Kelly Ayotte was quick to abandon her previous flavorless, position-less campaign and get on the “repeal!” bandwagon. With Paul Hodes having been a “yes” in the House, this may become one of the marquee issues in this race, and by extension, the battle for the Senate.

    NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena has a new poll out of the Empire State which includes a couple head-to-heads in the Senate race. They just won’t let up on the George Pataki front, finding that he leads Gillibrand 45-39 in a hypothetical race, while Gillibrand leads actual candidate Bruce Blakeman 48-24. There are a couple other names on the “actual” candidate front they might want to try out instead — Joe DioGuardi and David Malpass — and now it looks like one more is poised to get in. Dan Senor apparently has enough Wall Street support behind him to go ahead and launch his bid. One other name who’s now saying she won’t run, though, is former Lt. Gov. and malfunctioning health insurer spokesbot Betsy McCaughey, who it turns out is backing Malpass.

    MI-Gov (pdf): It turns out there was a lot more meat to that Insider Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group poll than what got leaked on Friday. They also looked at the Democratic primary, finding state House speaker Andy Dillon in charge at 21, followed by Lansing mayor Virg Bernero at 9 and state Rep. Alma Wheeler Smith at 6. They also did a whole bunch of general election permutations, all of which were won by the GOPers by suspiciously large margins (at least when compared with other recent polls): Mike Bouchard over Dillon 41-26, Mike Cox over Dillon 44-27, Peter Hoekstra over Dillon 43-27, Rick Snyder over Dillon 42-26, Bouchard over Bernero 45-23, Cox over Bernero 45-26, Hoekstra over Bernero 43-27, and Snyder over Bernero 44-24.

    NY-Gov (pdf): Naturally, Siena also has a gubernatorial half to its poll. They find newly-minted Republican Steve Levy’s entry to the field to be rather unwelcome: ex-Rep. Rick Lazio is beating him 45-16 in the GOP primary. Either way, Democratic AG Andrew Cuomo (with a 63/22 approval) seems to have little to worry about; in November, Cuomo beats Lazio and Libertarian candidate Warren Redlich 59-21-3, while beating Levy and Redlich 63-16-4.

    OH-Gov: John Kasich is still reaching out to teabagger nation as his core of backers, and consistent with that, he’s having Fox gabber Sean Hannity host a Cincinnati fundraiser for him on April 15. I sure hope Kasich gets a bigger cut of the proceeds than Hannity’s military charity recipients seem to.

    OR-Gov: The last big union left to endorse in the Democratic gubernatorial primary finally weighed in, and Oregon’s AFSCME went with ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber rather than ex-SoS Bill Bradbury, who’d gotten the teachers’ union endorsements. The AFSCME also endorsed newly appointed Treasurer Ted Wheeler in his primary bid against state Sen. Rick Metsger, and also, in an unusual step, endorsed two Republican state Reps. in rural eastern Oregon who voted “yes” on raising income taxes, probably figuring that non-wingnut GOPers is probably the best we’re going to do in those districts.

    LA-02: Republican Rep. Joe Cao probably ended any hopes of hanging onto his dark-blue (and 21.7% uninsured) seat by voting against health care reform yesterday, but just in order to emphasize the way in which he slammed the door shut on himself, he also compared abortion as a moral evil comparable to slavery. Because that’s a comparison just bound to go over well in his black-majority district.

    MA-10: Former Republican state Treasurer (from the 1990s) Joe Malone made it official: he’s running in the 10th to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt. He’ll still have to get past state Rep. Jeff Perry in the GOP primary, though.

    PA-06: Manan Trivedi and Doug Pike traded union endorsements in their Dem primary battle in the 6th. Trivedi got the backing of the Iron Workers local, while Pike got the nod from the local AFSCME.

    PA-12: Bill Russell seems like he just can’t take a hint, despite the GOP uniting behind Tim Burns. Russell says he’ll write himself in for the special election between Burns and Democrat Mark Critz, in addition to continuing to contest the same-day GOP primary against Burns. Meanwhile, the pro-life Critz’s main opponent remaining, Navy vet Ryan Bucchanieri, got an endorsement that ought to give him a financial boost, from the National Organization for Women.

    WV-01: We’ve heard rumors that the local Democratic establishment wasn’t very enthused about propping up Rep. Alan Mollohan, who faces both a credible primary challenge and a self-funding Republican opponent. Here’s some of the first public whiff of that: the state Democratic chair, Nick Casey, says he won’t be taking sides in the primary battle between Mollohan and state Sen. Mike Oliverio (although he did predict that Mollohan would be the eventual victor).

    Redistricting: Cillizza has a little more background on the Democrats’ efforts to gear up for the 2012 redistricting battles, which we discussed last week in terms of the DLCC’s efforts. The DGA is getting in on the act, too, with a Harold Ickes-led effort called Project SuRGe (for “Stop Republican Gerrymandering”), also focused on maximizing Dem control of state legislatures.

    Votes: Lots of slicing and dicing in the media today regarding who voted which way, and why, on yesterday’s historic health care reform vote. Nate Silver has a bunch of nice charts up, which show that district lean and Reps’ overall ideology was much more determinative than whether the Rep. is considered vulnerable in November in terms of a “yes” or “no” vote. And Some Dude over at Salon has a more concise look at Reps who most mismatched their districts with their votes. Finally, if you want to see the “(some) Dems are still doomed” conventional wisdom in full effect, they’ve got that in spades over at Politico.

    Passings: Our condolences to the Udall family, which lost family patriarch Stewart Udall over the weekend. Udall, 90, was Congressman from Arizona and then John F. Kennedy’s Interior Secretary, and many of our environmental protections that we take for granted today bear his stamp.

    $$$: The fundraising quarter is almost over, and Adam B. is opening up another round of “We’ve Got Your Backs” over at Daily Kos (and cross-posted here), dedicated to showing some (financial) love to the House Dems in the most difficult districts who did the right thing on health care reform.

    SSP Daily Digest: 3/18 (Afternoon Edition)

    NV-Sen: It’s starting to look like the investigation into John Ensign may really take off. The DOJ is actually serving subpoenas to at least six different Las Vegas area businesses, as they expand a criminal probe into the tangle of quid pro quos that arose as Ensign tried to find lobbying work for cuckolded friend Doug Hampton.

    CA-Gov: Usually politicians wait to say this kind of thing privately instead of publicly, but maybe Jerry Brown, as is his way, is engaged in some sort of Jedi mind trick. Brown openly encouraged his union allies to start spending now in the governor’s race and to go on the attack against likely GOP opponent Meg Whitman, so that he can stay “the nice guy” in the race.

    MI-Gov: Chris Cillizza has access to a new poll from Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group, which looks at the Republican primary in the Michigan Governor’s race. It’s more evidence that businessman Rick Snyder’s splashy spending and catchy “one tough nerd” ad has turned this into a real three-way race. The poll finds AG Mike Cox and Rep. Peter Hoekstra tied at 21, with Snyder right there at 20. Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard trails, at 10.

    NY-Gov: Guess who doesn’t like the idea of running a Democrat for the Republican nomination for Governor (even if NY GOP head Ed Cox seems to think it’s the best idea since sliced bread)? The RNC has threatened not to put money into New York races (and note that says “races,” not just the Gov’s race) if Democratic Suffolk Co. Exec Steve Levy winds up the GOP’s nominee. Meanwhile, David Paterson‘s case just gets weirder and weirder, as now he’s saying he himself was the anonymous source for the NYT story on his interceding on his aide’s behalf.

    WY-Gov: It’s still not clear that state Sen. Mike Massie is going to run for Governor on the Democratic side, but it is looking like he’s planning to move up. He confirmed he won’t run for his Senate seat again, although he’s interested in Superintendent of Public Education as well as Governor.

    NY-24: Chalk Rep. Mike Arcuri up as a “no” vote on health care reform. This comes despite the threat of losing the Working Families Party line in November, which will probably imperil his chances of re-election more so than any Republican votes he might pick up (which will probably equal zero, regardless of how he might vote on HCR).

    NY-29: Corning mayor Tom Reed has a bright idea on how to pay for the special election caused by Eric Massa’s resignation: make Massa pay for it, out of the money in his campaign fund (which is roughly equal to the actual cost of holding the election). Not that it’s going to happen, but it raises an interesting question: is there a legal mechanism for Massa to write a $644K check to the state of New York out of his account?

    PA-12 (pdf): There’s a second poll of the 12th, from a slightly more established pollster (although one who still requires a grain or two of salt): Republican pollster Susquehanna. Their numbers are pretty close to the weird robopoll from yesterday, finding Democrat Mark Critz leading Republican Tim Burns 36-31. Bad news for Dems: by a 49/44 margin, voters want to turn away from a candidate who, in the John Murtha tradition, supports earmarks for the district. Good news for the Dems: of the undecideds, 67% are Democrats, meaning that Critz has more room to grow.

    VA-11: Rich guy Keith Fimian is up with his first radio ad in the 11th, attacking Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly for saying, in reference to the stimulus, “I want to be there with all four paws and snout in the trough.” Um, yeah… except Connolly was saying that long after the stimulus passage, making fun of Eric Cantor’s hypocrisy on the issue. Too bad snark tags don’t translate to radio very well.

    NY-Something: Former Republican Lt. Governor, and then unsuccessful former health care industry spokesbot, Betsy McCaughey, apparently is looking for a way into the Republican field in one of the various statewide races in New York; she’s been polling both races. (There’s one small wrinkle: she’s still registered as a Democrat, and voted in the 2009 Democratic primary. She became a Dem after George Pataki dropped her from his 1998 ticket, and tried to run against Pataki as a Dem instead.)

    Votes: After all the sturm and drang surrounding the cloture vote, the final vote on the Senate jobs bill was pretty uninteresting, with 11 different GOPers crossing the aisle to vote for it: Alexander, Bond, Brown, Burr, Cochran, Collins, Inhofe, LeMieux, Murkowski, Snowe, and Voinovich.

    WATN?: A must-read editorial in today’s WaPo comes from ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, whose despite her two years in the House looms large in history as the decisive vote on the 1993 Clinton budget, which is usually assigned as the reason for her loss in 1994. She pushes back against the mind-numbing Beltway conventional wisdom that your electoral survival depends on bucking the party line on the tough votes, and seems to be weighing on the minds of members like the aforementioned Mike Arcuri. A wave is a wave, and it takes out those in unsafe districts who vote for or vote against; the key is to not let the wave become a wave in the first place:

    Votes like this are never a zero-sum game…. While it is easy to say my balanced-budget vote cost me reelection, that assumes the line of history that followed the bill’s passage. Had I voted against it, the bill wouldn’t have passed, the Republican opposition would have been emboldened, the Clinton presidency would have moved into a tailspin . . . and all of this could have just as easily led to my undoing.

    Simply put, you could be Margolies-Mezvinskied whether you vote with or against President Obama. You will be assailed no matter how you vote this week. And this job isn’t supposed to be easy. So cast the vote that you won’t regret in 18 years.

    There’s still one strange contention in her piece: that “I was in the country’s most Republican district represented by a Democrat.” Sorry, not even close: that district would’ve been R+4 at the time, based on its 1988 and 1992 results, good for 51st most Republican held by a Democrat. Even though she famously got bounced out in 1994, the 13th was promptly back in Democratic hands in 1998, courtesy of Joe Hoeffel (and now, thanks to trends in the Philly suburbs and thanks to redistricting, it’s a safe Dem district). The most Republican district held by a Dem in 1993? FL-01, then held by Earl Hutto, at R+20. (Hutto retired in 1994, giving way to… wait for it… Joe Scarborough.)

    SSP Daily Digest: 3/15 (Morning Edition)

  • CA-Sen: No one does weird-ass like Carly Fiorina, who has another web video out that hails from the land of the bizarre.
  • CO-Sen: Seventh CD Rep. Ed Perlmutter has endorsed Sen. Michael Bennet over Andrew Romanoff in the Dem primary.
  • FL-Sen: It looks like Marco Rubio is finally starting to come in for some serious scrutiny. The St. Pete Times has a lengthy examination of the corporate money that has flowed Rubio’s way, and the irregularities which have riddled his campaign finance reports.
  • IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias says he’s going to return all campaign contributions from, as Politico puts it, “accused bank fraudster Nick Giannis and his family.”
  • IN-Sen: Ah, this is good. Dan Coats is trying to run as hard as he can against the bailout… but back in 2008, he was lobbying the government on behalf of a hedge fund which owned 80% of Chrysler – a huge recipient of bailout funds. (He didn’t do a very good job, it seems, considering that the fund, Cerberus, has its equity stake wiped out.) As Texas Dem astutely noted the moment Coats rumors started flying, “Usually retired senators get rich in some unseemly way that makes them unelectable in the future.” Sure looks like the case here.
  • NY-Sen-B: I hope all those Democrats who supported Mike Bloomberg over the years are happy: The NYT has an in-depth look at Bloombo’s hostility to Kirsten Gillibrand, and all the candidates he has tried to push into running against her. The latest is his own girlfriend, Diana Taylor. The Times fails to find any rational reason for why His Bloominess has chugged so much haterade, but devtob points out that they ignored a key item: Bloombo was a big backer of Caroline Kennedy, who of course was snubbed in favor of Gillibrand.
  • RI-Sen: Don’t look to retiring Dem Rep. Patrick Kennedy to share any of his spoils with the DCCC. Calling his decision not to seek another term in the House more of a “sabbatical” than a retirement, Kennedy says he plans to transfer his $500K campaign purse into an interest-bearing account, just in case he should need it for a Senate campaign someday. This is total bullshit. (Thanks to SSPer Andrew for this one.) (JL)
  • ID-Gov: Dem Keith Allred has made it official. Allred, a former Harvard professor, had spent five years running a non-partisan “citizens group” called The Common Interest which he left to pursue a gubernatorial run.
  • MI-Gov: Virg Bernero locked down another big union endorsement: the AFL-CIO took a vote, and it was “overwhelming” (their words) in Bernero’s favor. The United Auto Workers union, itself a member of the AFL-CIO, had already gotten behind Bernero, but now the entire umbrella organization (which also includes AFSCME, IBEW and AFT) is doing so. Bernero’s been running exactly the sort of populist campaign his supporters would have hoped, lately proposing that Michigan establish a state-run bank, modeled after the Bank of North Dakota.
  • NM-Gov: Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez won the support of 47% of the delegates at the state GOP convention this past weekend, while former NM Republican Party chair Allen Weh pulled in 26%. Pete Domenici, Jr. took less than 5%, but still plans to file petitions to get on the ballot. Because Martinez and Weh got over 20%, they only have to file half as many signatures, but as Heath Haussamen points out, no candidate who hasn’t scored 20% at the convention has ever come back to win the nomination.
  • OH-Gov: A voluminous auditor’s report on the demise of Lehman Brothers was published last week, documenting all of the company’s shady financial practices which led to its doom. Why does this matter to the Ohio governor’s race? John Kasich was a managing partner at Lehman for several years, right up until the bitter end in 2008. Ted Strickland is putting some pointed questions to Kasich, whose response so far has been extremely feeble.
  • FL-08: Sarah Palin’s gotten mixed up in the race to take on Rep. Alan Grayson, firing some broadsides at the Democrat during a recent trip to Orlando. Grayson did not let this challenge go unanswered.
  • KY-03: Tacked on to a Louisville mayoral poll, SUSA included a sort of unusually-worded question about Dem Rep. John Yarmuth’s re-elects. They asked voters if they would vote for or against Yarmuth “no matter who else is on the ballot,” with a not sure “until I know who else is on the ballot” option. Yarmuth scored 27-23-48. It still seems that Yarmuth’s only challenger so far is a dude who owns a bunch of Pizza Huts.
  • NY-14: EMILY’s List has finally done something right: They’re endorsing Rep. Carolyn Maloney, a longtime advocate for women’s issues, in her primary fight against Some Dude Reshma Saujani.
  • NY-23: After months of sounding pretty serious about a bid, state Assemblyman Will Barclay has decided to pass on a race against Dem Rep. Bill Owens. Barclay’s exit greatly improves the chances of Club For Growth nutter Doug Hoffman in the GOP primary, where his main rival now appears to be investment banker Matt Doheny, who lost the special election nomination to Dede Scozzafava last fall. (JL)
  • OK-05: The Republican primary to succeed Mary Fallin in the House just gets bigger and bigger. State Rep. Shane Jett is now the sixth candidate in a field that includes state Rep. Mike Thompson, former state Rep. Kevin Calvey, and Some Other Dudes. (JL)
  • IL-Lt. Gov: The 38 members of the IL Dem central committee will hold interviews with prospective candidates around the state next week and then pick a replacement Lt. Gov. nominee on March 27.
  • SSP Daily Digest: 3/12 (Afternoon Edition)

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The filing period in Nevada is now open, and there was one more surprise credible entrant in the Republican field for the Senate race, attracted by the stink lines coming off of Harry Reid. Assemblyman Chad Christensen of suburban Las Vegas, who at one point was minority whip, decided to take the plunge. That takes the number of Republicans jostling to face Reid up to a whopping 10. In other filings news, New York investment banker John Chachas decided to follow through on his planned expensive run despite usually polling with 0%, and on the gubernatorial side, Jim Gibbons put to rest any retirement rumors by filing for re-election.

    NY-Sen-B: It looks like the GOP has managed to find another warm body to take on Kirsten Gillibrand. Ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi, ousted by voters from Congress over 20 years ago and now a darling of the local teabaggers, says that he’ll enter the race. (JL) (Port Authority commissioner Bruce Blakeman is already in the race, and has gotten a lot of county-level endorsements, while the Beltway media is treating former Bush aide Dan Senor as their flavor of the day, seeing as how he’s a guy they’re all familiar with.)

    UT-Sen: The start of the Utah Republican caucus process is in just two weeks, and Utah’s GOP chair is busy telling outside groups to butt out, warning them that they risk a backlash for their negative campaigning. He’s referring to Club for Growth, who’ve been advertising and robocalling to attack incumbent Bob Bennett (although they aren’t endorsing a particular opponent).

    MI-Gov: Much has been made of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andy Dillon’s poor relations with organized labor, with the assumption that labor is now getting behind Lansing mayor Virg Bernero instead. However, Dillon managed to nail down at least one union endorsement, from the Michigan Building and Construction Trades Council.

    CO-07: He’d gotten Tom Tancredo’s endorsement, but that wasn’t enough to keep music promoter Jimmy Lakey in the race. Not having gotten much traction against Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier in the primary, he bailed out.

    IN-03: I’m not sure if that rumored teabagger challenge to Republican Rep. Mark Souder – near-legendary for his lackluster campaigning – from attorney and former Dick Lugar staffer Phil Troyer ever came to pass, but now it sounds like Souder is facing another challenge from the right (or at least from the land of the awake). Auto dealer Bob Thomas (a former head of the national Ford dealers association) is planning a run and expected to advance himself $500K to get things rolling. If he has two insurgent opponents, look for Souder to survive the split… but one well-financed one could give him fits.

    MA-10: I’m not sure that “top aide to Deval Patrick” is the thing you want on your resume right now, but Ted Carr is now considering a run for the open seat in the 10th in the Democratic primary (where he’d join state Sen. Robert O’Leary and Norfolk Co. DA William Keating). Carr is currently the director of the Massachusetts Office of International Trade and Investment and is also a selectman in Cohasset.

    NJ-07: Looks like Dems finally have a candidate nailed down in the 7th, although probably not one who’s going to put the contest against freshman Rep. Leonard Lance squarely on the map. The Union Co. Dems endorsed educator and former Hill aide Ed Potosnak for the race, and his principal rival, Zenon Christodoulou, vice-chair of the Somerset Co. Democrats, dropped out and endorsed Potosnak.

    NY-29: Here’s a big break for Corning mayor Tom Reed, and, in terms of avoiding a toxic split of the kind that’s sabotaged many a House special election for them, possibly for Republicans in general. Monroe Co. Executive Maggie Brooks has decided not to run in the special election to replace Eric Massa, whenever that might be held, which leaves Reed (who was running before Massa’s resignation) as the consensus choice. On the other hand, Brooks is probably better known than Reed and may also have better fundraising connections (on which front Reed has been lackluster so far), so she might have turned out to be a better bet for the GOP. The Dems still have nobody lined up, although several Assembly members have floated their names.

    PA-06: The Manan Trivedi Express keeps gaining steam, scoring a big endorsement last night from the Montgomery County Democratic Committee. Trivedi can place this endorsement in his back pocket — right alongside his endorsement from the Chester County Democrats last month. (The MontCo Dems also endorsed local fave Joe Hoeffel for Governor, and declined to endorse for Senate.) Meanwhile, The Hill notes that Trivedi’s primary opponent, the moneyed Doug Pike, is taking a “silence is best” approach on the topic of healthcare reform, refusing to respond to multiple requests for comment on the bill. (JL)

    DCCC: Barack Obama’s wading into the Congressional electoral fray on May 13, hosting a big-dollar fundraiser in New York hosted by the DCCC.

    CA-LG: State Sen. Dean Florez decided to jump out of the way of the Gavin Newsom juggernaut, ending his own Lt. Governor bid. It looks like the LG race will come down to Newsom vs. Los Angeles city councilor Janice Hahn.

    NY-St. Sen.: Here’s one of those polls that helps restore your faith in humanity. Ex-state Sen. Hiram Monserrate does not appear to be on track to win back the Senate seat he got expelled from after being convicted of assault, according to a new Siena poll of the SD-13 special election. Democratic Assemblyman Jose Peralta is polling at 60%, followed by Monserrate (now an independent) at 15, with Republican Robert Beltrani at 9. The election is scheduled for next Tuesday.

    Georgia: I can’t think of how to connect this story to national politics, but it’s certainly interesting just from the perspective of geographical geekery. Ever wonder about the strange shape of Fulton County, Georgia (which is kind of arrow-shaped, where the pointy part is a cluster of right-leaning mostly-white exurbs far to the north of Atlanta)? It turns out that Fulton County is a conglomerate of three former counties (Milton and Campbell), and now the Republicans in the state House are pushing legislation that would allow historic merged counties to reconstitute themselves. The racial undertone, of course, is that the wealthy exurbs of former Milton County (like Roswell and Alpharetta) would like to split off from mostly-black Fulton County… which would be a big hit on Fulton County’s property tax base, so Democrats are opposed. The plan may not succeed though, as it would require two-thirds of the legislature because it requires amending the state constitution.

    Humor: If you missed Scott Rasmussen’s appearance on the Colbert Report last night, check it out. The actual interview itself wasn’t revelatory, but the self-feeding sausage machine bit that precedes it is amazing.