Tag: NV-Gov
SSP Daily Digest: 5/26 (Afternoon Edition)
• Idaho: The numbers from Idaho’s primary election last night that everyone is focused on is state Rep. Raul Labrador’s somewhat surprising victory over Vaughn Ward in ID-01, by a 48-39 margin. This means that the NRCC-preferred, Sarah Palin-endorsed candidate lost… although given the way Ward’s wheels fell off over the last few weeks, Republicans may be breathing a sigh of relief. Not that Labrador may turn out that well either, as he’s poorly-funded and apparently not a favorite of the local establishment (as he’s tight with ex-Rep. Bill Sali). Democratic freshman Rep. Walt Minnick may actually be feeling… dare I say it… confident going into November?
ID-02 had some eyebrow-raising numbers too, consistent with mediocre primary performances from establishment incumbents on both sides of the aisle in previous months; Rep. Mike Simpson — not exactly a moderate, but certainly not the flamethrower you’d expect in such a dark-red district – had an unexpectedly rough time in the GOP primary, winning against Chick Heileson only 58-24. And incumbent GOP governor Butch Otter, who’d looked dominant in polling, got a teabagging of his own, scoring only 55% while rancher Rex Rammell (the only guy around with a name even manlier than “Butch Otter”) got 25%, as apparently there was a lot of resentment on the right over Otter’s failed attempt to raise the state gas tax. Dem nominee Keith Allred has a fundraising lead over Otter and good bipartisan credentials as former head of group Common Interest; combined with Otter’s underperformance in the primary, that leaves us thinking Allred might have a legitimate shot here.
• CA-Sen: Anti-abortion group the Susan B. Anthony List (whom you might remember from their involvement in the WV-01 Dem primary) is getting involved in California, in support of Carly Fiorina. They’re spending $215K in IEs, as Fiorina opposes the pro-choice Tom Campbell in the GOP primary.
• IN-Sen: The spotlight is starting to turn back toward Dan Coats’ lobbying past, with state Democrats demanding that Coats disclose a full list of his lobbying clients. Coats (who worked for law firm King & Spaulding as a lobbyist) is citing attorney-client privilege as a reason for keeping mum, although recent court cases have made clear that the privilege doesn’t extend to lobbying activities.
• KY-Sen: No matter how pure you try to be, someone’s always going to be more pure than you: dissatisfied with Rand Paul’s sops to Republican orthodoxy, the Libertarian Party is saying that they’re planning to run a candidate against him in November. They’re accusing Paul of having deviated from the Libertarian line on social issues and foreign policy. Meanwhile, the Paul camp’s emergency retooling continues apace; he’s hired Jesse Benton as his new campaign manager (to replace David Adams, who was the behind-the-scenes equivalent of Some Dude). Benton’s not a GOP establishment figure, though; he was the communications director for the 2008 Ron Paul presidential campaign.
• NV-Sen: The feathers are flying in the Nevada GOP primary, where the Club for Growth is taking aim at the very large target on Sue Lowden’s back, hitting her for voting to raise taxes while in the state Senate and her previous support for Harry Reid. The CfG, of course, endorsed opponent Sharron Angle last week.
• CA-Gov: MoveOn co-founder Peter Schurman apparently got tired of polling at 1% in the Democratic primary, and ended his recently-launched bid against Jerry Brown. Seeming satisfied that Brown has been stepping up his game lately, he threw his backing to Brown.
• FL-Gov: It’s looking like insiders are realizing that Bill McCollum screwed up by letting wealthy health care magnate Rick Scott run rampant on their airwaves for the last month, letting him get a major foothold in the GOP primary. Now rumors suggest that an unnamed independent group is about to start a major advertising blitz on McCollum’s behalf, to try and level the playing field.
• NV-Gov: The most recent batch of polls have shown incumbent GOP governor Jim Gibbons down but not out in the Republican primary. But with the primary only a few weeks away, this new poll from the RGA by POS looks like Gibbons is in too deep a hole to dig out of: Brian Sandoval is at 50, with Gibbons at 27 and Mike Montandon at 11.
• NY-Gov: It’s convention time in New York, and now that Andrew Cuomo isn’t playing coy any more, his first order of business is picking a running mate. He’s chosen Rochester mayor Robert Duffy for the position. Duffy will still need to win his own primary, though, before getting joined to the ticket (a la Scott Lee Cohen in Illinois). Cuomo also got welcome news from the Independence Party: he’ll be getting that centrist third party’s line on the ballot in November. (The IP backed Eliot Spitzer last time, but rich weirdo Tom Golisano three times before that.)
• OH-01: In the War of the Steves, Republican ex-Rep. Steve Chabot is out with a poll giving himself a substantial lead over freshman Democratic Rep. Steve Driehaus. The poll by POS gives Chabot a 53-39 lead. That’s actually a smaller Chabot lead than that notorious Firedoglake poll from January, but regardless, Driehaus is going to need huge African-American turnout in Cincinnati if he’s going to pull this out.
• OH-16: If that wasn’t enough, there’s also a Republican poll of the 16th giving a significant lead to Jim Renacci, who has a 47-35 lead over fellow Democratic freshman Rep. John Boccieri. The press release touts this as an independent poll, but it was conducted by Republican pollster Fabrizio, McClaughlin, & Associates, and it was paid for by the innocuous-sounding U.S. Citizens Association who, if you go to their website, have a major ax to grind over health care reform (for which Boccieri was a ‘no’ to ‘yes’ vote).
• TN-06: Illegal immigration isn’t the kind of issue you’d expect to take center stage in rural Tennessee, but in the race to succeed retiring Bart Gordon, the two main GOP contestants are trying to outflank each other to the right on the issue. State Sen. Jim Tracy is accusing state Sen. Diane Black of trying to water down legislation requiring local authorities to report the arrest of illegal immigrants to ICE.
• Polltopia: Jonathan Chait joins the chorus of Rasmussen doubters, pointing nicely to Rasmussen’s role in the cycle of right-wing epistemic closure. Nate Silver also an interesting tidbit that promises to be part of a forthcoming larger revamping of his pollster ratings, one that seems likely not to see Rasmussen in as positive a light as his previous ratings: he finds that while Rasmussen was OK in 2004 and 2006, its performance in 2000 was way off, as they missed seven states, with a Republican bias of 3.5%.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/17 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: The White House hasn’t given up on trying to put Blanche Lincoln over the top tomorrow; they’re out with a new Barack Obama robocall on her behalf, saying she’s “standing on the side of workers.” Greg Sargent’s head is busy exploding from all the logical disconnect, since Lincoln’s main argument is that Bill Halter’s union support is an indication of how he’s a tool of Beltway liberals.
• AZ-Sen: I know, I know, people pick up and move on from jobs all the time, and you shouldn’t read too much into it. But when your campaign manager and deputy campaign manager depart on the same day, in the middle of a dogfight against an insurgent primary opponent, it’s going to always send up red flags. John McCain’s camp maintains they weren’t fired but are moving over to the national GOP’s fundraising operations.
• CA-Sen: This isn’t a good time for Tom Campbell to be cutting back on advertising, with the June 8 GOP primary fast approaching and Carly Fiorina still within striking distance and pitching in a few million dollars of her own. He’s cutting back on TV ad buys for the campaign’s final two weeks (although certainly not going dark) and will be focusing on direct mail instead. This could mean he’s running low on money, feeling confident enough in the primary to start marshaling general election resources… or both.
• IL-Sen: I don’t know if it’s much of a sign of strength to release an internal poll that shows you tied, but it seems like the Alexi Giannoulias camp is eager to push back on the meme that he’s somehow been fatally wounded by the Broadway Bank saga. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds Giannoulias and Mark Kirk tied at 44-44. For comparison purposes, they also let it be known that their previous (unreleased) poll, immediately after the Feds’ seizure of the bank in late April, had Giannoulias in much worse shape, down 43-37, so it’s possible the worst of the damage has passed as the story slips down the memory hole.
• KY-Sen: Wow, turns out not only Democrats get to whine about Fox News’ selective treatment of the news. Trey Grayson is getting in on the act, griping about Rand Paul’s constant presence on the network and the softball questions he gets thrown. That’d be fine if he were, y’know, not trying to win the GOP primary, where questioning the almighty Fox is an act of heresy. (Ironically, at the same time Grayson was having his press conference to level the charges, Rand Paul was busy appearing on Fox.)
• CA-Gov: In the Fix endorsement hierarchy, this probably slots in as “12) The “Oh shit, do I have to accept this endorsement?” Endorsement.” Meg Whitman just got Dick Cheney’s endorsement, fittingly in an op-ed in the Orange County Register. Meanwhile, a new poll from M4 Strategies (on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee) finds Whitman in better shape than the last few polls have: they say she leads Steve Poizner 49-32.
• CT-Gov: Yet another pre-convention dropout, as the minor candidates jump out of the way. This time it was on the Republican side, as Danbury mayor Mark Boughton plans to pull the plug on his campaign and sign on as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele’s running mate.
• NM-Gov: The Albuquerque Journal polled the Republican gubernatorial primary, which, like many other primaries, has moved into “fast-approaching” territory (on June 1). They find a two-way duel at the top, between former state party chair Allen Weh and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez. Weh leads 31-30, while Pete Domenici Jr. has discovered that you’ve gotta have something more than name rec as a reason to run; he’s lagging at 10. Martinez was also the latest female politician to get the endorsement of Sarah Palin this week, so we’ll have to see if that gives her some momentum to break away.
• NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also looked at the Republican gubernatorial primary in their most recent poll. (Recall they released the surprising results of Sue Lowden 30, Sharron Angle 25, Danny Tarkanian 22, John Chachas 3, and Chad Christensen 2 in the Senate primary last week.) They find, to no one’s surprise, that Jim Gibbons’ time is about done. Brian Sandoval leads the incumbent Gibbons, 45-27, with Mike Montandon clocking in at 6.
• OR-Gov: One more Republican gubernatorial primary, and this one actually is a surprise: while most pollsters (especially SurveyUSA) have given Chris Dudley a significant edge in Oregon, Eugene-based Lindholm says that Allen Alley is narrowly in the lead. Alley is ahead of Dudley 29-26, John Lim is at 10, and Bill Sizemore is at 4. One caveat: I’ve never heard of Lindholm before today, although they do maintain they aren’t working for any of the candidates in the race. At any rate, maybe there’s some potential for a surprise tomorrow.
• NY-13: Here’s some interesting cat fud in the primary in the 13th, where GOP state Sen. Andrew Lanza was seen going after GOP candidate Michael Grimm over campaigning at a Memorial Day event. Lanza had been associated with running for the seat himself, and says he’ll back ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in case the odd rumors about a comeback come true.
• NY-24: After refusing to commit to his re-election bid back in April after getting pressed from all sides on his HCR conduct, Dem Rep. Mike Arcuri announced today that he will indeed be seeking a third term. (J)
• OR-05: After some earlier suspicions that moderate state Rep. Scott Bruun, the NRCC’s preferred recruit, might not even get past teabagging businessman Fred Thompson (no, not the Fred Thompson), SurveyUSA polled the GOP primary and found that Bruun is very likely to prevail. Bruun leads Thompson 46-25, including 52-30 among the “already voted.”
• WV-01: Political scientist Boris Shor has attracted some good notices, at 538 and similar places, for his work on extrapolating DW-Nominate-type scores into the state legislatures. Looking at Mike Oliverio’s votes in the West Virginia state Senate (where he’s about as conservative as the average WV Senate Republican), Shor projects Oliverio as the most conservative Democratic member of the House, more so than even Walt Minnick.
• CfG: Speaking of Walt Minnick, he was one of only three Democrats to get the seal of good housekeeping from the Club for Growth. Minnick, Gene Taylor, and Bobby Bright all managed to break 50% on the CfG’s scoring system; in fact, Bright got up to 64% positive.
• Polltopia: PPP wants your input on where to poll next: California, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, or Washington? PPP’s Tom Jensen is also teasing that another NRSC-backed candidate is in some trouble, in a poll to be released tomorrow. Don’t leave us hanging, Tom!
SSP Daily Digest: 5/17 (Morning Edition)
Still, Ward might yet win. An independent poll last week from Greg Smith & Associates showed Ward leading Raul Labrador in the primary, 34-16, but with 50% undecided. The general election numbers (PDF) are really weird, though – Smith tested Rep. Walt Minnick “jungle-style” against both Labrador and Ward together. Yeah, Idaho doesn’t do their elections that way, so I don’t get the choice, but in any event, Minnick was at 50% with both Republicans combining for 20%.
Undeterred, the DCCC just chipped in another $40K for ads. Also, we mentioned the SEIU’s big ad buy here last week – click this link if you want to see the ad itself.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/13 (Afternoon Edition)
• AZ-Sen: A little tension here between John McCain and retiring Rep. John Shadegg? Shadegg has endorsed McCain (along with the rest of Arizona’s GOP House delegation) but was publicly laughing along with the Morning Joe crew to John McCain’s new TV ad on border security (which marks a big ‘ol flip-flop for the one-time pro-immigration reform McCain).
• NV-Sen: Everyone’s abuzz today about the new Mason-Dixon/LVRJ poll that has right-winger Sharron Angle moving into contention in the GOP primary, mostly as Sue Lowden’s expense. The numbers suggest that may have more to do with Angle’s higher profile after getting the Tea Party Express endorsement, rather than blowback from Lowden having laid an egg. We’ll have more on that poll once we have the general election numbers. Danny Tarkanian still seems to be in the thick of things, though; he’s touting an internal poll that has him tied with Lowden at 30-30, with Angle hanging back at 15. Tarkanian may also be able to blunt Angle’s surge a bit with a far-right endorsement of his own, from Minutemen co-founder Jim Gilchrist.
• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Peter King took a pass on challenging Kirsten Gillibrand after much public pondering, but today he’s announcing that he’s backing Bruce Blakeman in the GOP primary among the various lower-tier candidates who did get in.
• CA-Gov: Yesterday, Steve Poizner rooted around in his change jar and found an extra $2.5 million to go toward a final push in the GOP gubernatorial primary. Meg Whitman was unimpressed, raising the stakes with another $5 million (bringing her own campaign-long total to $64 million of her own money). “That’s not a ludicrous waste of money. Now this is a ludicrous waste of money,” she was overheard saying in an Australian accent.
• CT-Gov: Stop the presses! Rudy Marconi is out of the Democratic field for the gubernatorial race. Since this is probably the first you’ve heard of him and you may be thinking he’s the guy who invented the radio, no, he’s the First Selectman of Ridgefield. He was the last minor Dem to fall, making it a two-man fight between Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy. (Marconi endorsed Lamont on the way out.) Both Lamont and Malloy picked up some labor endorsements too, although it seems like Malloy got the bigger score, in the form of the SEIU’s two largest locals in the state. Lamont got the Laborers.
• MA-Gov: It looks like the RGA’s hard hit on indie Tim Cahill (echoes of their attacks on Chris Daggett in New Jersey) may have had the desired effects. A Rasmussen poll this week showed Cahill lagging into the teens, in the third place, with GOPer Charlie Baker moving up (unfortunately for them, it also seemed to suggest some Cahill votes moving to Patrick too, as he moved up even more than Baker and pushed into the 40s, but I suppose that’s part of the GOP’s plan to try and minimize Cahill and turn it into a traditional two-man race). It also blunted a social conservative uprising: a number of RNC national committee members had moved to stop the RGA from spending money on Charlie Baker because of his tolerant social views, but many of them withdrew that request shortly after seeing the polls indicating that the GOP attacks were actually working. UPDATE: National Journal has some additional background, and it seems like the back-down may have had more to do with some hard arm-twisting from Haley Barbour than a sudden epiphany on the part of the recalcitrant Iowans.
• MN-Gov: Looks like Margaret Anderson Kelliher, despite her DFL endorsement, is far from having things locked down in the Democratic primary. The United Steelworkers endorsed one of her opponents who didn’t bother with the party process, ex-sen. Mark Dayton.
• NV-Gov: One small tidbit from yesterday’s poll by Dem pollster Fairbank Maslin, that raised a lot of eyebrows over its NV-Sen numbers, escaped our attention. They also found Rory Reid within striking distance of likely GOP nominee Brian Sandoval, 46-41. (No word on a Reid/Gibbons result.)
• NC-07: Now here’s one of the last places I’d expected to see an intramural cat-fud fight. After attracting some good notices from the NRCC (including addition to the “On the Radar” tier) based on respectable fundraising and Iraq vet credentials, Ilario Pantano got over the 50% mark in the GOP primary. But now his two vanquished rivals, 2008 nominee Will Breazeale and Randy Crow, are uniting to fight against Pantano in the general. This doesn’t sound like a typical lame case of sour grapes: Breazeale, a vet himself, says he has a “moral obligation” to fight Pantano over his actions in Iraq. It turns out Pantano was charged with murder after shooting two Iraqis in his custody, although charges were eventually dropped. Pantano faces Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre, who’s had little trouble holding this R+5 seat so far.
• NY-01: With three rich guys duking it out in the GOP primary, Newt Gingrich, for some reason, waded into the fray to endorse the seemingly richest of the bunch: Randy Altschuler.
• WI-07: One more prominent local Dem decided against competing in the primary to replace retiring Rep. David Obey, leaving state Sen. Julie Lassa pretty much the consensus pick. Former state Sen. Kevin Shibilski said he liked the idea of getting in, but recognized the importance of avoiding a contested primary.
• West Virginia: Highly motivated voters in both parties this year? Guess again, if West Virginia’s primary is any indication. Turnout in the Mountain State was actually a record low, with only 166,000 votes cast, or 14% of registered voters.
• Florida: Mason-Dixon’s Senate and Governor poll included a whole bunch of downballot races too, offering a mixed bag for Dems. Maybe the most noteworthy finding: Dem ex-Tallahassee mayor Scott Maddox is leading the Ag Commissioner race, 31-30. That’s surprising, since the GOP fielded a top-tier opponent (in fact, several tiers above what this kind of race usually attracts) in the former of retiring Rep. Adam Putnam. In the CFO race, GOP state Senate president Jeff Atwater leads Dem ex-state Rep. Loranne Ausley, 33-26. For the AG race, they don’t poll the general but look at both primaries (where undecideds rule the day). On the Dem side, state Sen. Dan Gelber (who had run for Senate for a while) leads state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who really should be running in FL-16 instead) 15-12, while on the GOP side, Lt. Gov. Jeff Kottkamp leads Pam Bondi 13-10.
• Demographics: While we’re talking about Florida, Josh Goodman has some interesting number-crunching about where the growth in Florida is, and what that may mean for redistricting. The fastest-growing counties in the state seem to be the dark-red exurbs around Jacksonville (like Clay County), but that’s counterbalanced somewhat by the fast growth in the Orlando area, where the growth isn’t quite as fast but where there’s also a Democratic trend in the electorate.
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 16
AR-Sen (4/26, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 29 (36)
John Boozman (R): 57 (51)
Some other: 9 (6)
Not sure: 5 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 30 (35)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (51)
Some other: 11 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 53 (51)
Some other: 12 (6)
Not sure: 4 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32 (36)
Curtis Coleman (R): 52 (48)
Some other: 8 (7)
Not sure: 7 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (35)
Jim Holt (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 9 (7)Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
John Boozman (R): 56 (48)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (11)Bill Halter (D): 33 (34)
Kim Hendren (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 13 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)Bill Halter (D): 33 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 9 (12)Bill Halter (D): 37 (37)
Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (40)
Some other: 11 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
Jim Holt (R): 49 (43)
Some other: 12 (9)
Not sure: 8 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 4/16 in parentheses):
Terry Goddard (D): 40 (40)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 48 (44)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (41)
Jane Norton (R): 48 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 6 (8)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 7 (12)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 44 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 9 (12)Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (38)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (37)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Gov (5/4, likely voters, 4/1 in parentheses):
Ned Lamont (D): 42 (37)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (7)
Not sure: 13 (13)Ned Lamont (D): 48 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 28 (38)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (12)Dan Malloy (D): 38 (35)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (8)
Not sure: 16 (14)Dan Malloy (D): 44 (40)
Michael Fedele (R): 27 (37)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 20 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/7 in parentheses):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (55)
Linda McMahon (R): 39 (35)
Some other: 6 (3)
Not sure: 4 (6)Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (52)
Rob Simmons (R): 32 (38)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 8 (6)Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (58)
Peter Schiff (R): 29 (32)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 11 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
DE-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 2/22 in parentheses):
Chris Coons (D): 32 (32)
Mike Castle (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/21 in parentheses):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (22)
Marco Rubio (R): 34 (37)
Charlie Crist (I): 38 (30)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
GA-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Roy Barnes (D): 43 (41)
John Oxendine (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 6 (11)Roy Barnes (D): 39 (40)
Nathan Deal (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 8 (13)Roy Barnes (D): 41 (39)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 10 (14)Roy Barnes (D): 42 (40)
Eric Johnson (R): 37 (38)
Some other: 8 (6)
Not sure: 13 (16)Thurbert Baker (D): 34
John Oxendine (R): 44
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13Thurbert Baker (D): 31
Nathan Deal (R): 47
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13Thurbert Baker (D): 36
Karen Handel (R): 44
Some other: 5
Not sure: 15Thurbert Baker (D): 35
Eric Johnson (R): 38
Some other: 9
Not sure: 18
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Gov (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (36)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (52)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 3 (6)Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (40)
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 5 (11)Chet Culver (D-inc): 43 (40)
Rod Roberts (R): 41 (38)
Some other: 9 (10)
Not sure: 7 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (36)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 53 (55)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 4 (5)Bob Krause (D): 31 (31)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 8 (8)Tom Fiegen (D): 30 (28)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (38)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/ in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (37)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (41)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IN-Sen (5/5-6, likely voters, 4/13-14 in parentheses):
Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (33)
Dan Coats (R): 51 (54)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 38 (36)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (50)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 10 (11)Jack Conway (D): 38 (32)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (52)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 12 (11)Dan Mongiardo (D): 32 (37)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (52)
Some other: 8 (3)
Not sure: 12 (8)Dan Mongiardo (D): 31 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 45 (53)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 13 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MI-Gov (D primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):
Andy Dillon (D): 13 (12)
Virg Bernero (D): 12 (8)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 9 (10)
Some other: 15 (17)
Not sure: 51 (53)
(MoE: ±6%)
MI-Gov (R primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):
Peter Hoekstra (R): 28 (27)
Rick Snyder (R): 14 (18)
Mike Cox (R): 13 (13)
Mike Bouchard (R): 9 (6)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 32 (32)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NC-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 4/19 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 40 (32)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48 (50)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 9 (12)Cal Cunningham (D): 37 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (53)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±3%)
NC-Sen (D runoff) (5/5, likely voters, no trendlines):
Elaine Marshall (D): 42
Cal Cunningham (D): 37
Some other: 4
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-AL (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):
Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45 (44)
Rick Berg (R): 49 (51)
Some other: 2 (1)
Not sure: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):
Tracy Potter (D): 24 (25)
John Hoeven (R): 69 (68)
Some other: 2 (2)
Not sure: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Rory Reid (D): 47 (43)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (45)
Some other: 12 (8)
Not sure: 3 (4)Rory Reid (D): 35 (34)
Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (55)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 5 (4)Rory Reid (D): 39 (38)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 52 (54)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 3 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 4 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharron Angle (R): 48 (51)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 4 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NY-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/29 in parentheses):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 56 (52)
Rick Lazio (R): 24 (29)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (13)Andrew Cuomo (D): 50 (50)
Steve Levy (R): 27 (26)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 17 (17)Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (51)
Carl Paladino (R): 25 (28)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Gov (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (45)
John Kasich (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 3 (2)
Not sure: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 43 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 42 (43)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OR-Gov (4/26, likely voters, 2/17 in parentheses):
John Kitzhaber (D): 41 (42)
Chris Dudley (R): 41 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (15)John Kitzhaber (D): 48 (42)
Allen Alley (R): 33 (34)
Some other: 6 (8)
Not sure: 13 (16)John Kitzhaber (D): 50 (40)
John Lim (R): 34 (38)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (14)Bill Bradbury (D): 40 (39)
Chris Dudley (R): 40 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (17)Bill Bradbury (D): 43 (41)
Allen Alley (R): 34 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (16)Bill Bradbury (D): 44 (38)
John Lim (R): 32 (35)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Gov (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Onorato (D): 34
Jack Wagner (D): 17
Anthony Williams (D): 17
Joe Hoeffel (D): 9
Some other: 6
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±5%)
PA-Sen (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (50)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 6 (6)Joe Sestak (D): 40 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (47)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)
PA-Sen (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):
Joe Sestak (D): 47 (42)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (44)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 8 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
RI-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Frank Caprio (D): 33 (28)
John Robitaille (R): 21 (22)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (39)
Not sure: 13 (11)Patrick Lynch (D): 24 (22)
John Robitaille (R): 26 (26)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (37)
Not sure: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-AL (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 45 (44)
Chris Nelson (R): 41 (42)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (9)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50 (46)
Kristi Noem (R): 35 (35)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 9 (10)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (45)
Blake Curd (R): 36 (33)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Scott Heidepriem (D): 33 (32)
Dennis Daugaard (R): 53 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (13)Scott Heidepriem (D): 41 (37)
Dave Knudson (R): 41 (32)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 10 (19)Scott Heidepriem (D): 46 (39)
Gordon Howie (R): 31 (34)
Some other: 8 (9)
Not sure: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
WA-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/6 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 3 (4)Patty Murray (D-inc): 52 (48)
Don Benton (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (47)
Clint Didier (R): 36 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (11)Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (45)
Paul Akers (R): 35 (37)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Morning Edition)
Bill Foster (D-inc): 44
Randy Hultgren (R): 45
(MoE: ±5.7%)
SSP Daily Digest: 4/27 (Morning Edition)
• Brewer has seen a significant improvement in her job approval numbers with Republicans. When we looked at the state in September she was under water even with voters of her own party, as 37% of them expressed disapproval of her job performance while only 28% felt she was doing a good job. Now 54% of Republicans approve of her and only 27% disapprove, so she’s seen a good deal of improvement on that front, which should be particularly helpful for her prospects of winning nomination for a full term against a crowded field of primary opponents.
• At the same time Democratic candidate Terry Goddard leads Brewer 71-25 with Hispanics. That may seem ho hum, but consider this: Barack Obama only won Hispanic voters in the state by a 56-41 margin. So Goddard’s outperforming him by more than 30 points there. And on our September poll Goddard was up just 53-33 with Hispanics so it’s a 26 point improvement on the margin even relative to that.
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 14
AZ-Sen (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Rodney Glassman (D): 32
John McCain (R-inc): 54
Some other: 8
Not sure: 6Rodney Glassman (D): 39
J.D. Hayworth (R): 48
Some other: 7
Not sure: 7
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Sen (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):
John McCain (R-inc): 47 (48)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 42 (41)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4%)
CA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/11 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (43)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 10 (10)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 13 (10)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)
Some other: 8 (4)
Not sure: 12 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):
John Hickenlooper (D): 42 (42)
Scott McInnis (R): 48 (48)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (39)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (48)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (6)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)
Ken Buck (R): 44 (44)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 12 (11)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (43)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 12 (11)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (42)
Jane Norton (R): 49 (44)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 8 (9)Andrew Romanoff (D): 37 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 13 (13)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (41)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 11 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Gov (4/1, likely voters, 2/1 in parentheses):
Ned Lamont (D): 37 (40)
Tom Foley (R): 44 (37)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 13 (14)Ned Lamont (D): 41 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 38 (33)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 12 (18)Dan Malloy (D): 35 (37)
Tom Foley (R): 44 (36)
Some other: 8 (10)
Not sure: 14 (18)Dan Malloy (D): 40 (36)
Michael Fedele (R): 37 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (21)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (58)
Rob Simmons (R): 38 (32)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 6 (7)Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (60)
Linda McMahon (R): 35 (31)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 6 (7)Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (57)
Peter Schiff (R): 32 (27)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 6 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):
Marco Rubio (R): 57 (56)
Charlie Crist (R): 28 (34)
Some other: 3 (1)
Not sure: 12 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (37)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (47)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (44)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 36 (34)
Rand Paul (R): 50 (49)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)Jack Conway (D): 32 (31)
Trey Grayson (R): 52 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 11 (14)Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (34)
Rand Paul (R): 52 (51)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 8 (12)Dan Mongiardo (D): 33 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 53 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 9 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
LA-Sen (4/, likely voters, 3/10 in parentheses):
Charlie Melancon (D): 36 (34)
David Vitter (R-inc): 52 (57)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MA-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Deval Patrick (D): 35 (35)
Charlie Baker (R): 27 (32)
Tim Cahill (I): 23 (19)
Not sure: 15 (14)Deval Patrick (D): 38 (34)
Christy Mihos (R): 15 (19)
Tim Cahill (I): 33 (30)
Not sure: 14 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MO-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 48 (47)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NH-Gov (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
John Lynch (D-inc): 47 (50)
John Stephen (R): 37 (35)
Some other: 5 (2)
Not sure: 11 (14)John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (51)
Jack Kimball (R): 34 (32)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 12 (13)John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (54)
Karen Testerman (R): 33 (28)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NH-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Paul Hodes (D): 35 (37)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (12)Paul Hodes (D): 37 (36)
Bill Binnie (R): 49 (46)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 10 (14)Paul Hodes (D): 39 (42)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (38)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 11 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Gov (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):
Rory Reid (D): 43 (44)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 45 (36)
Some other: 8 (15)
Not sure: 4 (4)Rory Reid (D): 34 (35)
Brian Sandoval (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 4 (5)Rory Reid (D): 38 (37)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (38)
Sue Lowden (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 2 (3)Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (37)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)
Some other: 6 (9)
Not sure: 2 (4)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (38)
Sharron Angle (R): 51 (46)
Some other: 6 (11)
Not sure: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (49)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 6 (7)Joe Sestak (D): 36 (37)
Pat Toomey (R): 47 (42)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 12 (15)
(MoE: ±3%)
PA-Sen (D primary) (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (48)
Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov (4/8, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 29
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 57
Some other: 4
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±3%)
UT-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters):
Bob Bennett (R-inc): 37
Tim Bridgewater (R): 14
Mike Lee (R): 14
Merrill Cook (R): 6
Cherilyn Eagar (R): 4
Some other: 3
Not sure: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
WA-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (46)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 4 (2)Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Don Benton (R): 40 (37)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 8 (12)Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)
Clint Didier (R): 37 (30)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 11 (15)Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (47)
Chris Widener (R): 37 (32)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 12 (16)Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (NA)
Paul Akers (R): 37 (NA)
Some other: 5 (NA)
Not sure: 13 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen, NV-Gov, NV-03: Both Reids and Titus Trail
Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (4/5-7, likely voters, 2/22-24 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 39 (51)
Scott Ashjian (T): 11 (NA)
Undecided: 11 (9)Harry Reid (D-inc): 38 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 46 (52)
Scott Ashjian (T): 5 (NA)
Undecided: 11 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)
Sue Lowden (R): 45 (47)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 27 (29)
Sharron Angle (R): 5 (8)
Chad Christensen (R): 4 (NA)
John Chachas (R): 3 (1)
Undecided: 16 (15)
(MoE: ±6%)
Mason-Dixon is doing a few things differently from their last batch of polling: maybe most importantly, they’ve started to do a three-way including Jon Scott Ashjian (here listed simply as “Scott”), which would explain Harry Reid’s slightly improved position. (Last time, they tested head-to-heads against the top 3 Republicans — Sharron Angle seems to have faded from relevance since their last poll — and then did a test of Reid, Generic R, and Generic Teabagger.)
I’m not sure polling Ashjian is that wise, as he may be in jail rather than campaigning come November (but there’s always the possibility that if Ashjian falls, another equally random teabagger quickly takes his place. Interestingly, Ashjian’s presence makes a big difference in the Danny Tarkanian matchup (most likely because Tarkanian isn’t inspiring much loyalty, as seen with his declining primary numbers… although, who knows, maybe there’s a kernel of truth to that Armenian-American vote-splitting charge) but much less impact on the Sue Lowden matchup.
Here are the gubernatorial numbers:
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 25 (30)
Brian Sandoval (R): 39 (37)
Michael Montadon (R): 7 (9)
Undecided: 29 (24)
(MoE: ±6%)
Rory Reid (D): 35 (29)
Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (51)
Undecided: 15 (20)Rory Reid (D): 42 (42)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 40 (38)
Undecided: 18 (20)
(MoE: ±4%)
Not much change here. Rory Reid is still holding his own against thoroughly damaged GOP incumbent Jim Gibbons, but the chances of Gibbons surviving his primary against Brian Sandoval seem to be getting even slimmer.
Finally, as if that weren’t enough to worry about, we’ve got a new problem brewing in NV-03 (trendlines from 11/30-12/2-2009):
Dina Titus (D-inc): 44 (40)
Joe Heck (R): 49 (40)
Undecided: 7 (20)
(MoE: ±6%)
An earlier LVRJ poll had Titus tied with former state Sen. Joe Heck, and now Heck has pulled 5 points ahead, similar to his own internal released a few weeks ago. There are a couple things at work here: for starters, Titus can’t be helped by the reverse coattails coming downticket from father and son Reid. That’s compounded by Las Vegas’s particularly bad economy, crushed by the foreclosure crisis and the drop in construction, and compounded even further, as the LVRJ points out, by $1.3 million in spending by outside interests trying to sink Titus over her pro-HCR vote. Heck is fairly moderate as far as GOPers go, coming complete with his own charges of flip-flopping regarding raising or not raising taxes… hmmm, maybe Nevada’s nascent Tea Party should get involved in some RINO-hunting here too (hint hint)?