Tag: ID-01

Well, it looks like Boehner is starting to take matters into his own hands and rectify some of Tom Cole’s incompetence.

More after the fold…

Full article from cq politics:

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp…

It’s not uncommon for congressional leaders to steer fundraising assistance to party candidates who are in difficult races and in need of extra campaign cash. One such effort is the House Republicans’ “ROMP,” an acronym for Regain Our Majority Program, which has released its latest list of Republican candidates who will benefit from additional aid because they are politically vulnerable and/or have been targeted by the Democrats for defeat.

“ROMP 2008,” presently overseen by the political operation of House Minority Leader John A. Boehner of Ohio, was recently established in papers filed with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). These records identify the 10 newest recipients of the program’s assistance.

These candidates make up the first batch of ROMP candidates named this year, and the third since the current election cycle began in the 2007-08 cycle. The new recipients’ election contests are outlined below.

7/10 of the candidates were incumbents we ousted in the last election cycle.

• Michele Bachmann , Minnesota’s 6th District (North and east Twin Cities suburbs; St. Cloud). Bachmann was first elected in 2006 to succeed Republican Mark Kennedy, who lost his campaign for the U.S. Senate to Democrat Amy Klobuchar . The Democratic nominee for November’s election will be either Bob Olson, a lawyer, or Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former state transportation commissioner. The latter candidate initially campaigned for the Democratic nomination in 2006 but later deferred to Patty Wetterling, a child safety advocate who lost to Bachmann after also losing as the Democratic nominee against Kennedy in 2004.

• Vito J. Fossella , New York’s 13th (Staten Island; part of southwest Brooklyn). Fossella is the only House Republican who represents part of New York City. He saw his re-election percentage drop from 70 percent in 2002 to 59 percent in 2004, and then again to 57 percent in 2006 even though Democratic challenger Steve Harrison didn’t raise much money. Harrison, a lawyer, is seeking a rematch, though he faces a well-funded primary opponent in New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia.

• Sam Graves , Missouri’s 6th (Northwest – St. Joseph, part of Kansas City). Graves’ campaign for a fifth term may well be the toughest of his career. His Democratic opponent, former Kansas City mayor Kay Barnes, is well-known and well-funded.

• Ric Keller , Florida’s 8th (Central – most of Orlando). Keller won a fourth term in 2006 by a 7 percentage-point margin over Democrat Charlie Stuart, a marketing executive who is one of several Democrats seeking the 2008 nomination.

• Anne M. Northup, Kentucky’s 3rd (Louisville Metro). Northup, who served in the House from 1997 through 2006, is challenging Democratic freshman Yarmuth, who unseated her by a margin of less than 3 percentage points. Northup hadn’t planned a bid to reclaim her seat this year, but she jumped in after the Republican she had been backing, lawyer Erwin Roberts, dropped out of the race to fulfill his military obligations. Northup sought a quick political comeback last year but lost a primary challenge to then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher, who subsequently lost the general election to Democrat Steve Beshear.

• Erik Paulsen, Minnesota’s 3rd (Hennepin County suburbs – Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Plymouth). Paulsen, a state representative, is the presumed Republican nominee in this suburban Minneapolis district, which retiring Republican Jim Ramstad is giving up after nine terms. The Democratic nominee will either be state Sen. Terri Bonoff or Ashwin Madia, a lawyer and Iraq War veteran.

• Bill Sali , Idaho’s 1st (West – Nampa, Panhandle, part of Boise). The strong Republican leanings of this district are indisputable, as President Bush took 68 percent of the vote there in his 2004 election. But Sali underperformed in his 2006 election for the then-open 1st District seat, in which he defeated Democrat Larry Grant by the underwhelming vote of 50 percent to 45 percent. Grant is seeking the 2008 Democratic nomination along with Walt Minnick, a businessman who lost as the party’s losing Senate nominee against Republican Larry E. Craig in 1996. Sali is opposed in the May 27 Republican primary election by Matt Salisbury, an Iraq War veteran.

• Jean Schmidt , Ohio’s 2nd (Eastern Cincinnati and suburbs; Portsmouth). Schmidt, who is seeking a second full term in a district that usually exhibits strong Republican leanings, faces a rematch of her exceptionally close 2006 race against Democratic physician Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt won that contest by a margin of about 1 percentage point. In the primary elections that took place March 4, Schmidt was renominated with 57 percent of the Republican vote and Wulsin won with 58 percent on the Democratic side.

• Tim Walberg , Michigan’s 7th (South central – Battle Creek, Jackson). Walberg, a freshman, was elected in 2006 over Democrat Sharon Renier, a little-known and underfunded Democrat who lost by just 4 percentage points. The unexpectedly close outcome was influenced by a bitter Republican primary fight in which the very conservative Walberg unseated one-term GOP moderate Joe Schwarz. Renier is running again this year, though Democratic officials are rallying behind state Sen. Mark Schauer, a better-known and better-funded candidate.

• Darren White, New Mexico’s 1st (Central – Albuquerque). White is the sheriff of Bernalillo County, which includes Albuquerque and which is the population base of a politically competitive district that Republican Heather A. Wilson left open to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. White is opposed in the June 3 primary by state Sen. Joseph Carraro. The four Democratic primary candidates are Michelle Grisham, a former state health secretary; Martin Heinrich, a former Albuquerque councilman; Robert L. Pidcock, a lawyer; and Rebecca Vigil-Giron, a former New Mexico Secretary of State.

We have just officially begun Q2 of the election cycle.  I want to bring back a good friend to the netroots community from the election cycle of 2006- Larry Grant.

As a refresher, Larry ALMOST pulled off an upset of epic proportions by barely losing to extreme right-wing nutjob Bill Sali.  In 2006, by running a grassroots and netroots oriented campaign, he gained recognition amongst both communities and garned immense name recognition and popularity.  Alas, Larry lost the district by a slim margin of 50-45.  

Here is a quick summary of the district from plf515‘s Congressional round-up diary:

District: ID-01

Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise

Representative Bill Sali (R)

First elected  2006

2006 margin 50-45

2004 margin NA

Bush margin 2004 30-69

Notes on opponents Larry Grant raised about $750K to Sali’s $1 million

Current opponents   Larry Grant

and

Rand Lewis (site down)

and

Walt Minnick

Sali is also being primaried

Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican

Assessment Even for a Republican, Sali is crazy. Even for an Idaho Republican Sali is crazy.  He’s really nuts.  He might even lose in this Republican stronghold (I hope he wins the primary)

 

To kick off our fundraising efforts for our BlueMajority, Red to Blue, and Obamajority candidates in Q2, I would like everyone to consider Larry as a potential candidate to donate to.

Although Idaho is a ruby red state, Larry provides the Democratic Party and the progressive community the perfect candidate to paint this state with a brilliant shade of blue.  

Here are his stances on the important issues:

Dear Friend,

Recently, I was asked what the Democrats should do when we win the election in 2008. I started imagining what it will be like having more seats in the U. S. House, a filibuster-proof Senate, and a Democrat in the White House. Starting with what Speaker Nancy Pelosi called her “6 in ’06” agenda last time, it wasn’t hard to come up with 9 for 09

Here they are:

1.     Provide for negotiating prescription drug prices under Medicare:

Speaker Pelosi got this one through the House last time, but it got blocked in the Senate. Let’s try again.

2.     End subsidies for big oil:

Speaker Pelosi got this one through too, but it got blocked in the Senate as well. Let’s do it again, too.

3.     Pass the expanded State Children’s Health Insurance Program (“SCHIP”):

Six million more deserving children would have been covered by the new SCHIP program. Let’s get them covered as soon as possible.

4.     Repeal No Child Left Behind:

Let’s quit mandating what local schools have to teach without providing the funds to do it.

5.     Pass an extended Craig-Wyden plan:

We need to continue the Craig-Wyden program for replacing revenue that local communities lost when the timber harvest on federal lands was curtailed.

6.     Repeal the Patriot Act:

We need to protect our civil liberties and stop spying on American citizens without a warrant.

7.     Balance the budget:

We need to stop burdening our grandchildren with our national debt.

8.     Pass comprehensive immigration reform:

We need to protect our borders while providing employers the workers they need.

9.     End the war in Iraq:

The war is costing far too much in both lives and money.

There you have it, my goals for Congress in 2009.  Now its your turn what are your top 9?  

Larry Grant

His stances is a perfect example of a true progressive looking to make a difference in Washington.  

To add a bit of a personal touch, here is a story from NYBri‘s diary over at DailyKos:

I have asked those who work with Larry in his campaign to tell me in their own words about why they are committing themselves to working with Larry in Idaho, and over the next few weeks, I’ll be sharing with you what they have written in a series called, In Their Own Words, and when it’s all over, I think Larry will be one of your favorite people as well.

Larry’s North Idaho Field Coordinator is Kristy Reed Johnson, and here is her story:

When I met Larry Grant over two years ago, I thought he was just another attorney who was willing to throw himself on his sword for Idaho Democrats in another 1st District Congressional race that would end like all the others since the early 1990’s.

I’m a fairly jaded political junkie.  In 1968, at the tender age of 22, and a “hostess” for Trans World Airlines I received two “special assignments.” First I was sent to work the Republican National Convention in Miami, FL. That was the  year of Barry Goldwater, Nelson Rockefeller, and Richard Nixon. We all know what happened.

My next assignment was to be one of three crews who worked the Hubert Humphrey Charter after he won the Democratic nomination. It was five years after John F. Kennedy was assassinated, and three years after the Democrats got Civil Rights legislation through Congress, lost all the support of the Southern Democrats, and Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek re-election.  It was also the year that Martin Luther King Jr. was assassinated. Two months after that, on the same evening he won the California Primary, Bobby Kennedy was also shot to death, as we all watched on television.

I became a Eugene McCarthy supporter. At the scene of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, there were protests in a park across the street against the ongoing war in Vietnam. Those kids (my age) were dragged and beaten by Chicago Police, actions ordered by Mayor Daly (a Democrat and the father of the current Mayor Daly).  

I formed my life long opinion of politics that year. Politicians are just people, some good, some dreadful, and all flawed, just like the rest of us. There is nothing “grand” about them.

But they seem come in two types, regardless of party: The ones who are in it for their own aggrandizement and those who honestly believe they can make a difference in the lives of ordinary people.

Larry Grant is the only candidate I’ve had the opportunity to know that I would walk on hot coals for to get elected. Larry Grant earned my respect.

Time after time I have seen his honesty, his integrity, his core values and moral compass lead this campaign team in a way that restores my faith in the democratic process. It’s all about us, the people of Idaho, the team, the crew, the mission. I actually believe Larry possesses at the very roots of his character everything we so desperately need in our political leaders.

His kind of responsible, intelligent, thoughtful leadership is missing in most of the politicians who are running for office these days. Larry leads by example.  

He will take that Idaho-grown moral and ethical compass to Washington D.C. and restore our faith in how a government should be run — of the people, by the people, and for the people. Can you support a man like that?

Larry has a list of 9 reasonable, achievable goals he wants to accomplish the first year he gets to Congress. They are his ‘9 for 09.’ Check them out. You don’t have to walk on hot coals for him, but could you help us, his staff, help him, communicate with the voters in the 1st District?

Larry doesn’t take money from corporate lobbyists. Small donations of $9 or $19 or $29 are gratefully accepted. Larry knows times are tough for working families in Idaho, and he knows every donation that comes to him means that the donor is sacrificing something for him or herself.  

As I write this, The Grant Team just received a bulletin: Larry Grant just received a phone call from a person who offered him the database for the Republican Party in Idaho. He refused. He thanked the potential donor, but said it would not be ethical, and warned us (the staff) not to accept something like that either.  

I can vote for a man like that. Will you join me? Become a member of the club and let’s send Larry Grant to Congress. He is just what the citizen’s of Idaho ordered.

There you have it, please head on over to Larry’s website to join and contribute to a truly stand up guy!

Grant for Congress:

http://www.grantforcongress.co…

Larry’s stances on Issues:

http://www.grantforcongress.co…

Give Larry a shot in the arm!

http://www.actblue.com/entity/…

If we start now, we can provide Larry with an even BETTER chance!  

Club For Growth nutcase Bill Sali has another Democratic challenger on his hands: businessman Walt Minnick, a former Senate candidate who lost by 16% to Larry Craig in 1996.  For those keeping score, that’s not a bad performance considering that Bill Clinton won less than 34% of the state’s Presidential vote that year.  Minnick will join ’06 nominee Larry Grant and army vet Rand Lewis in the Democratic primary.

At his announcement speech today, Minnick was joined by former Gov. Cecil Andrus, the last meaningful Democratic figure to hold office in Idaho:

“This is a man who can win in the fall; a man I trust and can be elected in November as Congressman from the first district,” said former Idaho governor and Secretary of the Interior Cecil D. Andrus.

Andrus was introducing Walt Minnick, candidate for the Democratic nomination to the House of Representatives, in front of supporters and press this morning in front of the Idaho Historical Museum in downtown Boise.

Minnick’s entry and Andrus’ endorsement comes with this as a backdrop:

After Grant lost to Sali, Idaho Statesman political columnist Dan Popkey quoted a few Idaho Democrats who were angry with Larry Grant for running a lackluster campaign, squandering goodwill with unreturned phone calls and offers of help, not listening to campaign advisors and declining to campaign aggressively against Sali’s far-right philosophies.

Some Democrats think Popkey’s column opened the door for party members to talk about their disappointment with Grant, leaving room for a challenge primary.

While the ripest year to beat Sali was 2006, it’s certainly a change of pace to see a three-way primary for a House seat in Idaho.  Perhaps this race could get interesting later down the line.

The race to fill Republican Butch Otter’s open seat in Idaho’s first district was one of my favorite stories to write about last year.  In what is now a campfire legend, Bill “Brain Fade” Sali rode a wave of bad press for his asinine antics and bad reputation in the Idaho state legislature to a spectacularly dismal 49-46 victory over Democrat Larry Grant last November.  (And when Bush carries your district with 68% of the vote, no self-respecting Republican candidate has any business performing that badly.)

However, aside from being the handmaiden of his campaign benefactors, the economic regressives at the Club For Growth, Sali has kept a mostly low profile in the House this year.  So one might expect that Sali’s high negatives have softened over the past eight months, right?  Well, maybe not, if you believe the latest polling. 

Via The Hill and New West comes news of a new poll conducted by Greg Smith and Associates showing Sali with some serious baggage (“voters”, July 11-13):

Bill Sali (R-inc.)
Favorable: 29
Unfavorable: 46
No Opinion: 13
Unaware: 12
MoE: ±5.3%

Just dismal.  And how does Larry Grant fare, the rematch candidate who commissioned the poll?

Larry Grant (D)
Favorable: 28
Unfavorable: 13
No Opinion: 29
Unaware: 30
MoE: ±5.3%

So, despite losing a close race and feeling the full fury of the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Club For Growth (who spent $483,000 and $441,000 smearing Grant’s name, respectively, in the closing weeks of the campaign), Grant walks away with only a 13% disapproval rating, while 59% of the district’s voters either do not recognize his name or have no opinion of him either way.  Losing a House race, it would seem, does not earn one a great deal of meaningful name recognition.

While Sali has not shaken off his negatives, it is difficult not to mention that this district had little problem re-electing the late Congresswoman Helen Chenoweth despite her own psychedelically nutty reputation.  It seems that Sali still has yet to endear himself in the same way, though.

PS: You might remember the Boise-based Smith & Associates firm as the curators of a startling poll last fall showing Sali’s support evaporating while the rest of his Republican colleagues were in solid shape.

Nationally, many pundits and bloggers didn’t take Nevada’s 2nd district too seriously in 2006. It was too safe a Republican district to be even slightly competitive, so the argument went.

Well, we all know that Dean Heller in the end won his election against Democrat Jill Derby. Against expectations though, his result wasn’t very convincing. The man who was elected Secretary of State of Nevada three times, barely won more than 50% of the vote in a district that doesn’t include Democratic Las Vegas. So today, I ventured out in search of Republicans who won their districts in 2006 and did worse than him. Turns out that there weren’t that many.

Only 11 Republicans were elected with a worse result than Heller. Among them: Rep. Sali of Idaho, Rep. Cubin of Wyoming, Rep. Musgrave of Colorado and Rep. Doolittle of California. All these districts were presumed to be safely in Republican hands. There was no way they would become competitive and yet they were.

Again, there is talk of Heller being safe, of other Republican districts more important than Nevada’s 2nd. This is reminder for all of these folks that Heller is among the vulnerable dozen Republicans currently serving in Congress:

  * 50.37% Heller
  * 50.24% Pryce (OH-15)
  * 50.21% Wilson (NM-01)
  * 50.14% Hayes (NC-08)
  * 50.08% Buchanan (FL-13)
  * 50.05% Bachmann (MN-06)
  * 49.95% Sali (ID-01)
  * 49.53% Ferguson (NJ-07)
  * 49.26% Doolittle (CA-04)
  * 48.46% Porter (NV-03)
  * 48.33% Cubin (WY-01)
  * 45.91% Musgrave (CO-04)

Results were taken from NPR.

PS: Please note that I only looked at how many people were willing to vote for the Republican, not how well the opponent did. This is not a diary on close margins. Feel free to comment on that below.

Cross posted from Helluva Heller, where Nevada bloggers have united to take down Heller in 2008.

Yep here we go again. With the dust not yet settled on the last challenge in FL-13 (Good luck Christine) we take a look forward to 2008.

Wander below the fold for the good oil.

Well well well. It seems so soon since we were celebrating the Midterm results and our record of contesting 425 Districts. That’s because it is so soon (LOL). Odd thing to do here in Australia watch the midterms but I took the day off work and had a merry old time watching it all unfold on the net and on cable he he he.

Nonetheless time for the 50 State Page to crank up for 2008 courtesy of the redoubtable Barry Welsh. This cycle we have some help however from the magnificent 2008 Race Tracker wiki. Go and take a look at them both right now and whilst you are there throw Barry some cash. He will be running again and is rightly a netroots champion.

Now for the good oil;
248 races with confirmed candidates. A confirmed candidate has either filed with the FEC, The Sec of State or has an active campaign website, or even if they come and blog and say yep I am running.

The 248 includes all 233 Democratic incumbents (yeh yeh I know some will not run but I am assuming we will find candidates in those districts, and all Dem incumbents are also listed as Running But Unconfirmed).

There are also 15 Republican held districts where we have confirmed candidates as follows:
FL-01,
FL-09,
FL-21,
IL-14,
IA-04,
MI-07,
MO-09,
NE-02,
NJ-11,
NC-08,
NC-09,
OH-07,
OH-16,
PA-03,
TX-04.

But wait there is more.
We also have 238 candidates who I believe are running but who are at this stage unconfirmed according to the above criteria. All 233 districts held by Democrats but also 5 districts held by Republicans as follows:

AR-03,
CA-04,
ID-01,
IN-06 hurry up and confirm Barry!,
NJ-05.

We also have 6 rumoured candidates. These guys are mentioned as considering the race in the following districts:
FL-06,
FL-13 *** depends on the outcome of the challenge,
NV-03,
NJ-07,
PA-15,
TX-06.

So we are off and racing for 2008. Use the 2008 Race Tracker wiki as the primary source of gossip and information as it is a fantastic site and I have spent a LOT of time contributing there also.

Any candidate news, particularly opponents for Repubs welcome in the comments!

(From the diaries with minor editing – promoted by James L.)

You have GOT to check out this independent poll!

http://www.ktvb.com/…

Yes, the number of undecideds is absurd, the MOE is huge, and our margins our slim, but HOLY GOD this is wonderful news! God bless Howard Dean and the fifty state strategy! WE’RE LEADING IN FRIGGIN’ IDAHO!

ID-Gov:

Jerry Brady (D): 41

Butch Otter (R): 36

Undecided: 20

MoE: ±4.4%

ID-01:

Larry Grant (D): 38

Bill Sali (R): 34

Undecided: 25

MoE: ±5.7%

On the web: Larry Grant  |  Jerry Brady