Tag: SC-Gov

SSP Daily Digest: 10/11 (Morning Edition)

  • CO-Sen: Clinton alert! The Big Dog is doing a rally for Sen. Michael Bennet in Denver on Oct. 18th. Interestingly, Bill had endorsed Andrew Romanoff in the primary.
  • CT-Sen: Open seat fans, start getting ready for the 2022 cycle! In a weird attempt to channel 1994, Linda McMahon says she will serve a maximum of two terms. Uh, okay.
  • NY-Gov: The Carl Paladino charm offensive continues:

    • Flame-throwing Republican Carl Paladino erupted again, declaring yesterday that being gay is “not the example that we should be showing our children.”

    “I don’t want [children] brainwashed into thinking homosexuality is an equally valid and successful option – it isn’t,” Paladino said to applause at a meeting with Hasidic Jewish leaders in Brooklyn’s Williamsburg section.

    In a version of the speech distributed by a rabbi, the anti-gay rant went further, charging there is “nothing to be proud of in being a dysfunctional homosexual.”

    Getting less play, but likely to damage him among the very community he was trying to reach out to, were Paladino’s remarks attacking Orthodox Jewish “power brokers” who supposedly have conned key rabbis.

  • AZ-07: While my feeling is that Raul Grijalva probably does have a competitive race on his hands, I’m not sure this Politico piece really adds much in the way of new news. All we have is that one Magellan poll which showed the race tight, and a lot of whispers. It’s almost like Politico is holding up a mirror at the edge of a rippling pond and – lo and behold! – making the ripples appear to be twice as broad as they actually are. The only real tidbit here is that Rep. Xavier Becerra, a member of leadership, recently exhorted Congressional Hispanic Caucus members to give to Grijalva.
  • MI-07: Former Rep. Joe Schwarz once again endorsed Mark Schauer, the man who beat Tim Walberg – aka the man who beat Joe Schwarz in the GOP primary in 2006. Schwarz also backed Schauer in 2008 (and previously backed Walberg’s opponent Brian Rooney in this year’s Republican primary).
  • NJ-03: This is the kind of thing which makes the bedwetters at newspaper editorial boards wring their hands like mad men, but as far as I’m concerned, it’s just good politics. The Courier-Post has a detailed story explaining how Democrats helped mysterious teabagger Peter DeStefano get on the ballot. No one except us junkies care about process stories, so I think Dems should be doing a lot more of this kind of thing.
  • NY-02: NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg heads outside city and party lines to endorse Democratic Long Island Rep. Steve Israel.
  • SC-05: Yet another Republican hypocrite. John Spratt’s been hitting Mick Mulvaney for his involvement in a real estate development deal that received a $30 million loan from Lancaster County and then went south – but not before Mulvaney flipped the property for a profit. Now Mulvaney says, “I believe small business needs government to get out of the way.” Spratt fired back: “When he needed $30 million, he didn’t go to his bank, he didn’t go to private sources, he went to county government.” Spratt’s also been running an ad on this issue.
  • TX-17: Man, yet another similar story. Here Dave Michaels of the Dallas Morning News’ lede says it all: “The Republican challenger who has assailed Rep. Chet Edwards for supporting taxpayer bailouts once led his company through a bankruptcy that let it avoid a $7.5 million debt to the U.S. government.” The piece goes on to note that (predictably) Flores “insists that private companies shouldn’t rely on the government for subsidies or financing.” Of course he does.
  • Chamber of Commerce: The LA Times has a piece noting that the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has been digging deep to help a bunch of Blue Dogs late this cycle, including TV ads on behalf of Jim Marshall (GA-08), Glenn Nye (VA-02), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Travis Childers (MS-01), and Bobby Bright (AL-02). These spots are taking the form of “issue” ads so as to avoid election-related regulations – you can see one example here.
  • DGA: The DGA says it raised $10 million in the third quarter and has $13 million on hand. Allied groups have some $3 million in cash. Politico says the RGA is expected to top these numbers.

    • SSP TV:

    • DE-Sen: A shadowy third-party group has a funny new ad out supporting Zerata the Enchantress… uh, I mean, Christine O’Donnell
    • IL-Sen: A new spot from MoveOn hits a topic Dems nationwide have been making a big issue of recently: foreign money being used to potentially support Chamber of Commerce election activities
    • KY-Sen: Another Jack Conway ad hitting Rand Paul for his $2,000 Medicare deductable scheme – and his desire to increase payments to doctors
    • LA-Sen: Wow. This must-see ad from David Vitter takes the cake as by far the most racist ad of the 2010 cycle
    • WV-Sen: Joe Manchin attacks John Raese for the “hicky” ad casting call – and the fact that Raese wife is registered to vote in Florida and can’t even vote for her husband. A second ad could have been written and produced by Republicans
    • SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen goes after Nikki Haley for double-speak on economic issues, though I think it tries to cram too many things in, and the drum-beat kind of interferes with the audio
    • IL-17: The conservative American Future Fund says they’re dropping half a million bucks on a new ad campaign targeting Rep. Phil Hare – here’s what they’re spending it on
    • LA-02: Joe Cao has a pretty good ad hitting Cedric Richmond on ethical issues
    • MA-10: Dem Bill Keating has a good ad nailing Jeff Perry for the illegal strip-search business that took place on his watch as a police sergeant
    • MN-01: GOPer Randy Demmer has a comparison spot, going after Tim Walz for the usual (healthcare, cap-n-trade, etc.) and then finishing with some positive bio-ish crap
    • PA-08: Patrick Murphy attacks Mike Fitzpatrick for raising property taxes
    • SC-02: Rob Miller goes after Joe Wilson for spending taxpayer money on travel to Hawaii and France

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/7 (Morning Edition)

  • IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.
  • KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.
  • OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    • Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

    Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

    Undecided: 8 (9)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

    • Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

    John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

    Undecided: 7 (7)

    (MoE: ±3.1%)

  • IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.
  • NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

    • Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

    Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

    Undecided: 7 (8)

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CO-03: Morans.
  • IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.
  • MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.
  • SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.

    • Fundraising:

    • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
    • NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

    SSP TV:

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
    • FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
    • FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
    • MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

    Independent Expenditures:

    Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – October

    Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

    August and September rankings at links.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

    SENATE

    Dem Tilt

    WV (Jury is out on wisdom of election this year.)

    CT (People like Blumenthal and aren’t fussed about McMahon but closer than it should be.)

    NV (Reid can’t pull away but surely Nevadans can’t elect that nut. Can they?)

    Rep Tilt

    IL (Hardest call to make. I’m still confident Alexi can get over the hump though.)

    Dem Lean

    NY (Kirsten’s problem was always that people don’t know her. First ads now helping with that.)

    WA (Need to see polls not by Rasmussen to see if Rossi has bounced back.)

    CA (Boxer isn’t out of the woods yet but the GOP have better targets.)

    Rep Lean

    WI (Shocked this has shifted so quickly and so convincingly.)

    CO (Bennet doesn’t seem to be getting any traction.)

    KY (The one remaining shot at a pickup but I suspect it will be another heartbreaker like ’04.)

    PA (Sestak has left it too late this time I fear.)

    MO (This will be close but doesn’t look good.)

    NH (Independents leaning heavily Republican across the country so Hodes has little chance with them dominating the electorate here.)

    Dem Favored

    DE (Thanks Teabaggers!)

    Rep Favored

    OH (No Brunner fans she would not be doing better.)

    FL (Crist is becoming a bit of a joke.)

    NC (Marshall has no money so no contest.)

    IN (In any other year I think Ellsworth wins. Want more polls.)

    AR (Lincoln won’t lose as big as some think.)

    AK (McAdams has great ads but think Dems will be strategic and help Murkowski.)

    LA (Melancon ad hitting Vitter where it hurts in final bid but he was never winning this year if any.)

    ND safely in the GOP column.

    GOVERNORS

    Dem Tilt  

    CA (August as good as it gets for Whitman. As suspected Brown just had to go up on tv to get ahead. No blowout though.)

    Rep Tilt

    OH (Strickland running a great campaign but Kasich a tough opponent.)

    IL (Quinn is clearly closing despite his problems. Not sure if it will be enough though.)

    ME (LePage seems to be sinking but suspect he still leads. Just.)

    VT (Need more polling to see if Shumlin has closed here.)

    FL (Scott floods the airwaves and Floridians don’t seem to care how dodgy he is.)

    OR (Kitzhaber surprisingly weak but still in with a good shout.)

    Dem Lean

    CT (Foley has skeletons and Malloy does not which in a blue state means a Dem gain.)

    MN (Dayton isn’t perfect but split field means a Dem gain.)

    MD (Blue state and decent O’Malley approvals mean no Ehrlich return.)

    NH (Longevity and the cycle hurt Lynch but I think he’ll be fine.)

    MA (Patrick’s job numbers have risen steadily. Suspect he wins even if Cahill drops out late.)

    Rep Lean  

    PA (Onorato seems to be closing a little but too little too late I fancy.)

    TX (Great campaign from Bill White but afraid the state is just too red this year.)

    GA (Cannot quite believe Deal is getting a pass here.)

    NM (Martinez has a perfect resume for this year.)

    WI (Seems to be moving away from Barrett.)

    Dem Favored

    CO (Hickenlooper breaks 50 on election day despite having two opponents.)

    HI (Abercrombie will have to work for it but should be fine.)

    RI (Caprio with the advantage but even if Chafee wins this is basically a Dem gain either way.)

    NY (No longer a rout but I’m not worried.)

    AR (Every incumbent Dem should be on this board!)

    Rep Favored

    SC (Latest poll looks dodgy but still expect this to tighten in the final weeks.)

    NV (Possible Rory could make this close but I can’t see any way he wins.)

    MI (Since a Republican was always likely to win Snyder isn’t half bad.)

    AZ (Brewer’s debate debacle doesn’t seem to have hurt much.)

    OK (I suspect no total blowout but a comfy margin all the same.)

    IA (Culver might be toast even with a weaker Republican.)

    TN (McWherter turns out to be a bit of dud.)

    KS (Nobody seems to have much love for Brownback but even fewer love Dems this year.)

    ID (Closer than expected but Otter will win.)

    AK (Berkowitz is a decent nominee but I bet he wishes he had challenged Murkowski instead.)

    WY safely in the GOP column.

    Projection

    SENATE – GOP +7

    GOVERNORS – GOP +7

    SSP Daily Digest: 10/4 (Morning Edition)

  • AK-Sen: Scott McAdams reports raising $650K since the August primary, saying over half his donations came from Alaskans and some 90% were $200 or less. The DSCC also finally registered its first public interest in the race, sending McAdams a $42,000 contribution, the maximum allowable direct donation. McAdams described this as the DS’s “first” check to him, suggesting more help might be on the way – but bear in mind that $42K was exactly what the NRSC gave Christine O’Donnell.
  • IN-Sen: Aaron Blake tweets that the DSCC appears to be up on the air with a “small ad buy… in the South Bend market.” SSP hoosiers in that corner of the state, let us know if you see anything.
  • NV-Sen: Jon Ralston obtained a 38-minute tape of an apparently private meeting between Sharron Angle and Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, wherein Angle (among other things) pleads with Ashjian to drop out lest he cost her the election. Ralston has links to the full audio, and also posts some transcribed excerpts. The question remains: Why the hell did Angle tape this meeting – and how did it get released publicly?
  • AL-Gov: Robert Bentley, the GOP gubernatorial nominee, just told Mitt Romney to take a hike. Romney endorsed a bunch of Alabama Republicans (obviously as part of his pre-campaign ass-kissing), but Bentley declined the singular honor. Not surprised, given that you can find something about Willard Mitt which probably makes his backing unwelcome in every state in the union.
  • SC-Gov (PDF): So there’s a poll out by a firm I’ve never heard of, Cranston & Associates, purporting to show Republican Nikki Haley up just 45-41 over Dem Vincent Sheheen. There are more than a few problem with this poll, though – click a link and check out the responses to their questions. It’s apparently an RV poll, but 100% of respondents say they’re going to vote. The male-female split is twice what it was in 2008, and the African American percentage is equal to 2008. In other words, this sample is waaay too friendly.
  • CA-03: I can’t summarize this charming bit of hypocrisy better than Torey Van Oot of the Sacramento Bee, whose lede reads: “Rep. Dan Lungren likened the federal stimulus plan to a “spending spree which will add to a growing mountain of debt,” but he helped secure $30 million from the program for a local company whose leaders later contributed to his campaign.” Click the link for the full details.
  • CA-47: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to do a rally for Loretta Sanchez (a Hillary supporter, natch) on Oct. 15th. Recall that Joe Biden was in town last month to support Sanchez, who needs all the help she can get these days. After telling a radio host that “The Vietnamese and the Republicans are, with an intensity, (trying) to take this seat” and that her opponent Van Tran is “is very anti-immigrant and very anti-Hispanic,” Sanchez came under intense fire and offered a bullshit “I’m sorry if you misunderstood me” non-apology. This one is not going well.
  • DE-AL: Republican Glen Urquhart is touting a Wilson Research Strategies poll (n=300) which supposedly has him just three points back of Dem John Carney, 45-42.
  • MA-04: Republican newcomer Sean Bielat, running against Rep. Barney Frank, says he raised $400K in September alone (and has the same amount on hand), after raising just $230K through August 25th. Frank has $1 million on hand. Even though Obama, Kerry, and Gore all won about 65% here, Scott Brown narrowly won this district, 50-49.
  • MN-06: Jebus – Michele Bachmann says she raised over $3.4 million in the third quarter alone. $3.4 million would be a lot for an entire cycle, let alone just one quarter. Put another way: That’s probably 3 to 4 times what Lee Fisher raised last quarter.
  • PA-10: Given that things like “competence” and “judgment” were not on the list of criteria Karl Rove used when hiring US Attorneys, it’s no surprise to hear that another legal impropriety has cropped up in connection with Tom Marino. During his days as Lycoming County D.A., Marino sought to get a friend’s drug conviction expunged – and when one local judge refused to do so, he asked another, who granted the expungement, but then reversed himself upon learning what happened with the first judge. Pretty scuzzy – and why was Marino, who seems to have a history of wanting to do favors for unsavory characters, even seeking the expungement in the first place? The Luzerne County Citizens’ Voice also tantalizes us with some other unexplored alleged Marino misbehavior “including claims he hired law enforcement colleagues to serve as an “entourage” and would go days at a time without going to the office.”

    • Meanwhile, the Allentown Morning Call confirms what I’ve always assumed to be the case, that Marino resigned as US Attorney while he was under investigation in the Louis DeNaples matter (see PA-10 tags), which had the effect of halting the inquiry. Reminds me of Nathan Deal bailing on Congress to stop his ethics investigation.

  • TN-08: Uh-oh – time to get Steve Fincher on “Better Know a District.” The Republican agribusiness kingpin didn’t realize that the 8th CD includes parts of a small little town you might have heard of once… you know, Memphis, Tennessee. While declaring his ignorance, Fincher also informed the public that he wouldn’t debate his opponent, Dem Roy Herron, nor would he release his tax returns (Herron has). Herron’s also raised some questions about Fincher’s personal financial disclosures, noting that they include zero liabilities – even though Fincher obtained a $250K bank loan that he in turn loaned to his campaign.

    • SSP TV:

    • AL-02: Bobby Bright runs through a litany of numbers which he says define him – including voting with John Boehner 80% of the time
    • AZ-03: In his first ad, Dem John Hulburd strikes out at Ben Quayle for his fucked-up moral compass
    • IA-01: Republican Ben Lange has his first ad up, a biographical spot
    • LA-02: Cedric Richmond features President Obama speaking directly to the camera (and making lots of hand gestures that look like someone speaking very broken sign language)

    Independent Expenditures:

    • NRCC: $5.3 million worth of NRCC spending on too many races to count
    • SC-05: “Citizens for a Working America” spends $250K against Dem Rep. John Spratt

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/24 (Afternoon Edition)

    • DE-Sen: One more Real World alum in the political news: that’s first-season vet Eric Neis debating Christine O’Donnell in this new 90s video that’s surfaced. Ooops, I’m burying the lede: the point of the video is that O’Donnell answers in the affirmative when asked if she wants to stop the whole country from having sex.

    • KY-Sen: Benenson Strategy Group for DSCC (9/14-19, likely voters, early Sept. in parentheses):

    Jack Conway (D): 42 (45)

    Rand Paul (R): 45 (47)

    Undecided: 13 (8)

    (MoE: ±3.7%)

    The newest Benenson poll from the DSCC shows things pretty stable in the Kentucky race, with Jack Conway hanging back within striking distance of Rand Paul. They also find Conway leading 48-45 among those who actually know both candidates (and find Paul with greater name recognition: 84%, to 72% for Conway).

    • MO-Sen: The DSCC is also out with an internal poll in Missouri, one of the other races where they’d like you to know they’re still playing offense, courtesy of Garin Hart Yang (no mention of the dates, MoE, or any of that useful stuff, though… just a leak to the Fix). The poll has Robin Carnahan trailing Roy Blunt 45-41 (and only 41-40 without leaners). Roy Blunt, meanwhile, is engaging in typical frontrunner behavior, trying to limit debates (to avoid any grist for the negative ad mill); there will only be two debates, neither in a network TV setting.

    • NC-Sen: National Research for Civitas (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/19-21 in parentheses):

    Elaine Marshall (D): 29 (37)

    Richard Burr (R-inc): 49 (44)

    Mike Beitler (L): 3 (3)

    Undecided: 17 (15)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    Thanks to a big lead with unaffiliateds (48-21), Richard Burr has a big lead in North Carolina. With a big financial disparity, unless there’s some outside assistance, that lead’s probably going to continue (although I’d be surprised if it’s actually a full 20 points). One other interesting note: Civitas hires out third-party pollsters, and this is their first poll since they switched to Republican internal pollster National Research.

    • NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The only evidence we have of this poll is a Jon Ralston tweet, but apparently there’s a poll rumbling around behind the scenes from a reputable Republican pollster that gives a 5-point lead to Harry Reid, 42-37 (among RVs). That’s quite plausible; the real shock here, though, is that it also finds Rory Reid trailing only by 6 in the governor’s race.

    • WV-Sen: The big news here is probably that the NRSC is plowing $1.2 million into this race, hoping for the upset (as this race seems to be increasingly taking the place of Washington and California) or at least to pull DSCC fire away from elsewhere. That’s just to run one new ad, tying Joe Manchin to Barack Obama; part of the expense is that the ad is running in the DC market, so it can reach the Panhandle. (You can see the IE filing here.)

    One more plus, though, for Joe Manchin, is that he’s getting the NRA’s endorsement (one more in a seemingly endless parade of ConservaDems getting backed this week). Also, some details about John Raese are surfacing that may lead to ads that write themselves: photos of his marble-driveway Florida mansion, where it turns out his family lives full-time (presumably because of Florida’s big juicy homestead exemption, but also because of the schools, as he wants a school system he “believes in”)… and Raese’s own description, in a radio interview yesterday, of how hard he worked for his riches:

    RAESE: I made my money the old-fashioned way, I inherited it. I think that’s a great thing to do. I hope more people in this country have that opportunity as soon as we abolish inheritance tax in this country, which is a key part of my program.

    • AZ-Gov: Here’s a look at the financial situation in Arizona, where both gubernatorial candidates are relying on clean elections public financing in their bids. Dem Terry Goddard has about $1 million left to spend, while Jan Brewer has $860K left. Goddard also spent more in the last reporting period, spending $477K to Brewer’s $291K.

    • MA-Gov: If you’re shedding your main campaign strategist with 40 days to go, that’s probably a sign that you’re not going to win. That’s what happened with the Tim Cahill camp, who said goodbye to John Weaver. Having seen Cahill’s share plunge into the single digits, Weaver said (in a parting shot) at this point, Cahill’s candidacy is just hurting Charlie Baker’s chances.

    • NY-Gov: Marist (9/14-19, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 53 (67)

    Carl Paladino (R): 34 (22)

    Rick Lazio (C) : 9 (NA)

    Undecided: 6 (11)

    (MoE: ±4%)

    I don’t know if the Marist poll exactly qualifies as a tie-breaker in the New York gubernatorial race, but it’s a likely voter poll (instead of an RV poll, like Siena), and it doesn’t have that outlier-ish whiff that Quinnipiac had. Also adding to its potential credibility: it’s about halfway between the two, if erring somewhat on the side of Andrew Cuomo’s safety. (It looks like they’ll release Senate numbers later, separately.)

    • CA-47: This is the first time I’ve ever used the scary all-caps to put words in the mouth of a Democratic candidate, but Loretta Sanchez just sent up the alarm that THE VIETNAMESE ARE COMING FOR HER SEAT!!!1!! Not just Van Tran, but apparently all of them!!! I suppose that’s a dog-whistle of sorts to her Latino base in this seat that has a Latino majority (though not a lot of actual voters among them) and a politically active Asian minority, where her Republican challenger is Vietnamese. Kind of a faceplant moment for Sanchez, who has had good outreach to the Vietnamese community in the past (up until now, I’d imagine) and has relied on their votes to stay in office.

    • MI-01: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Gary McDowell (9/21-22, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Gary McDowell (D): 38

    Dan Benishek (R): 41

    Glenn Wilson (I): 12

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Here are some not-bad numbers from an internal for Gary McDowell, showing this is one of the few Republican-leaning open seats where we’re still in fighting shape right now. McDowell’s offering some pushback against a Dan Benishek internal that gave Benishek a 39-25 lead in a race that also includes wealthy independent Glenn Wilson.

    • MI-07: It’s a little late in the game for ex-Rep. Tim Walberg to be jumping on the birther train (that’s so 2009…) but he just said that he doesn’t know if Obama was born in the U.S. Meanwhile, his incumbent Dem opponent, Mark Schauer, is out with an internal poll in response to the Rossman Group poll that gave a 4-point lead to Walberg. Schauer’s poll, taken 9/21-22 by Myers Research, finds a mirror-image 4-point lead for Schauer, 49-45 (or if you’d prefer inclusion of all third-party candidates, he’s up 45-43).  

    • NRCC: The NRCC is wading into six more districts that they haven’t been in before, with IE ad buys. Most (except for WA-03) of these districts feel like “Lean Dem” districts right now, but where the GOP thinks it can make some inroads: Ike Skelton’s MO-04, Chris Carney’s PA-10, Steve Kagen’s WI-08, Martin Heinrich’s NM-01, and the open seats in MA-10 and WA-03.

    • AFF: The financially-disadvantaged NRCC can’t win this all on its own, so AFF is keeping up its IEs, too. They’re going on the air in four new districts, two of which overlap the above list. They’re hitting SD-AL ($360K), TX-17 ($117K), NM-01 ($290K), and WA-03 ($875K).

    • SSP TV:

    • CO-Sen: The softer side of Ken Buck? He’s out with a positive ad with testimonials from senior citizens

    • FL-Sen: Charlie Crist simultaneously hits both his opponents on corruption issues in one ad, hitting Kendrick Meek’s real estate dealing and Marco Rubio’s enthusiastic use of RPOF credit cards

    • NC-Sen: It seemed to work well the first time for Richard Burr, so the rocking chair guys are back for another round

    • NV-Sen: The newest ad from Harry Reid hits Sharron Angle for not supporting requiring health insurers to cover mammograms and colonoscopies

    • NY-Sen-A: Chuck Schumer’s running his first ad of the cycle, a bio spot, on local cable

    • PA-Sen: Pat Toomey’s newest ad is a hard negative one linking Joe Sestak to Barack Obama; interestingly, it’s not running in the Philadelphia market

    • WA-Sen: Dem group Commonsense Ten is out with an anti-Dino Rossi ad throwing the kitchen sink at him, including the foreclosure seminars

    • CA-Gov: The latest Meg Whitman opus attacks Jerry Brown over Oakland schools during his tenure as mayor

    • CA-47: Loretta Sanchez launches a negative ad against Van Tran, featuring him asleep on the job (during an Assembly budget all-nighter)

    • LA-03: Bet you’d forgotten there’s still one race where the field isn’t set? (There’s still a GOP runoff here.) Anyway, Hunt Downer is out with an ad full of adorable babies… to make the point that Jeff Landry is insufficiently pro-life

    • PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper engages in some fat-cat bashing, tying Mike Kelly to Wall Street

    • Rasmussen:

    • FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 50%

    • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 31%

    • MN-Gov: Mark Dayton (D) 41%, Tom Emmer (R) 42%, Tom Horner (I) 9%

    • OK-Gov: Jari Askins (D) 34%, Mary Fallin (R) 60%

    • SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 33%, Nikki Haley (R) 50%

    • TX-Gov: Bill White (D) 42%, Rick Perry (R-inc) 48%

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/21 (Afternoon Edition)

    • AK-Sen: Joe Miller finally fessed up to what we told you about last week (concerning farmland he owned in Alaska): he’s a hypocrite on the farm subsidy issue, having gladly accepted them while railing against them. This time, it’s about a different parcel of farmland in Kansas that he owned before moving to Alaska, receiving $7K in GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS FOR LAZY UNPRODUCTIVE PEOPLE WHO’VE MADE BAD LIFESTYLE CHOICES!!!1! between the years 1990 and 1997. And check out the excuse he offers: “This was back in the ’90s, the situation the country was in was far different than now.” (Uh huh… when some guy named Bill Clinton was running a surplus.)

    • DE-Sen: Whoops. Prior to getting their establishment asses handed them to them on the end of a mob-wielded pitchfork, the Delaware state GOP filed a FEC complaint against Christine O’Donnell for illegal campaign coordination with and excessive contributions from the Tea Party Express. Now that they’re saddled with her as the nominee, the FEC is telling them no-backsies, and that they can’t withdraw the complaint… the complaint against their own nominee.

    • NC-Sen: And now it’s Richard Burr’s turn in the hypocrisy dunk tank. An announcement of 240 new jobs and a $130 million expansion at Cree Inc. in Durham is drawing four major Democrats and Richard Burr to celebrate. Burr, unlike the Democrats, though, did not support the stimulus package that, y’know, was behind that expansion.

    • NV-Sen: John Ensign may not even survive till the general election in 2012, if Jon Ralston’s tweet is to be believed. John Chachas, the little-known self-funder who barely made a ripple in the overcrowded 2010 GOP Senate field but who seems likely to do better in a one-on-one, is saying he may run against Ensign in two years.

    • GA-Gov, GA-Sen: Mason-Dixon for Georgia Newspaper Partnership:

    Roy Barnes (D): 41

    Nathan Deal (R): 45

    Michael Thurmond (D): 33

    Johnny Isakson (R-inc): 52

    (MoE: ±4%)

    While this isn’t as nice as the InsiderAdvantage poll showing the race tied in the wake of disclosures about Nathan Deal’s financial disarray, Mason-Dixon does show a close race. This appears to be their first poll of the Barnes/Deal matchup, so there’s no sense of whether things have tightened.

    • RI-Gov: Faced with the choice between a labor-friendly indie candidate and a Democrat whom they endorsed for state Treasurer four years ago, the AFL-CIO finally decided to punt, and endorse neither Lincoln Chafee nor Frank Caprio, remaining neutral. Recall that Chafee got SEIU and nurses’ union backing yesterday.

    • AZ-05: There’s a new internal out in the rematch in Arizona’s 5th that founds its way across someone’s desk at the Hill. It’s from Democratic pollster Harstad Strategic Research and is apparently on behalf of the Harry Mitchell campaign, giving Mitchell a narrow lead over David Schweikert, 45-44 with 6 to the Libertarian candidate. That’s kind of pushing the limits on when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but with Schweikert having claimed an 8-point lead in his own internal and the DCCC’s ambiguous pull-out announcement about this district triggering some alarms, Mitchell seemed to need to show he’s still right in the thick of things.

    UPDATE: The Mitchell campaign writes in to clarify that this isn’t their internal poll (which the Hill had originally reported, then apparently deleted), but rather is on behalf of Project New West. Mitchell’s up 51-29 among independents, which helps him prevail even in a sample that’s slightly GOP-skewed (46% GOP, 30% Dem) You can see the polling memo here.

    • LA-02: Anzalone-Liszt for Cedric Richmond (9/12-15, likely voters, no trendlines):

    Cedric Richmond (D): 45

    Joe Cao (R): 35

    (MoE: ±4.4%)

    Here’s the antidote to that bizarre Joe Cao internal from a few months back, that gave him a 25-point lead over Cedric Richmond. Even this Richmond internal, which has him up by 10, indicates that this isn’t going to be a total cakewalk for the Dems, though; with only 35%, Cao is still way overperforming the GOP baseline in this district that went for Barack Obama with 75% of the vote in 2008.  

    • MN-01: Tim Walz picked up an endorsement from an unexpected corner yesterday. He got the backing of former Republican Senator David Durenberger, who support Walz’s stance on “uniting people” but also his support for health care reform. (Durenberger is also supporting IP candidate Tom Horner in the governor’s race.)

    • PA-15: Muhlenberg College for the Allentown Morning Call (9-11/16, likely voters, 4/19-27 in parentheses):

    John Callahan (D): 38 (33)

    Charlie Dent (R-inc): 49 (45)

    Jake Towne (I): 3 (?)

    Undecided: 10 (22)

    (MoE: ±5%)

    John Callahan’s one of the best Dem challengers to a GOP incumbent this cycle, but he’s got a lot of work ahead of him to make up that last 12 points against Charlie Dent.

    • NRSC: Here’s an interesting Roll Call dispatch from the front lines in the war between the NRSC and the Army of One known as Jim DeMint. DeMint is apparently dissatisfied with current NRSC allocations, and is moving money from his own personal stash to bolster Sharron Angle in Nevada ($156K) and Ken Buck in Colorado ($250K). The NRSC has reserved $3.2 million for Buck in TV time, more than any other candidate, so his concerns about Colorado may be misplaced.

    • SSP TV:

    • IL-Sen: The DSCC hits Mark Kirk for voting against unemployment extensions and minimum wage raises

    • MO-Sen: Roy Blunt disappears down the meta rabbithole, with an attack ad about Robin Carnahan’s attack ads

    • NV-Sen: Can we just have Harry Reid handle the advertising for all our candidates? He turns up the heat even higher on Sharron Angle, saying she wants to privatize the VA and “end our promise to our veterans”

    • IA-Gov: Two separate ads for Chet Culver, one featuring endorsements from his immediate family members, the other making the case that “hey, Iowa’s not that bad off compared to all those other states”

    • NM-Gov: Susana Martinez’s ad is a positive bio spot recounting her early prosecuting days

    • SC-Gov: Vince Sheheen’s TV ad features a litany of reasons to be suspicious of Nikki Haley, recited by various average folks

    • OH-16: The DCCC’s newest spot is a tax-time two-fer, hitting Jim Renacci on supporting the 23% “fair tax” and on his own pile of back taxes owed

    • OR-05: Kurt Schrader’s newest is a testimonial from a thankful veteran

    • TN-08: Roy Herron’s newest ad hits Stephen Fincher mostly on his various campaign finance discrepancies of misfilings and mysterious loans

    • WI-07: Julie Lassa’s newest ad features criticism from a Sean Duffy underling from the DA’s office in Ashland County, focusing on his neglect of that stepping-stone job

    • Rasmussen:

    • AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 25%, Joe Miller (R) 42%, Lisa Murkowski (W-I-inc) 27%

    • CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

    • NY-Sen-B: Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc) 49%, Joe DioGuardi (R) 39%

    • RI-Gov: Frank Caprio (D) 30%, John Robitaille (R) 23%, Lincoln Chafee (I) 33%

    • Rasmussen (appearing as Fox/Pulse):

    • CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Meg Whitman (R) 45%

    • CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 47%, Carly Fiorina (R) 46%

    • DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 54%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 39%

    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 46%

    • OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 41%, John Kasich (R) 47%

    • OH-Sen: Lee Fisher (D) 36%, Rob Portman (R) 49%

    • PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 39%, Tom Corbett (R) 49%

    • PA-Sen: Joe Sestak (D) 40%, Pat Toomey (R) 48%

    SSP Daily Digest: 9/7 (Afternoon Edition)

    • AK-Sen: Once again, the Swing State Project is proud to issue one of its once-in-a-blue-moon endorsements, and to do it for Scott McAdams, the Democratic nominee in Alaska. We’re two-thirds of the way to our $2,400 goal, and we’ve just hit 50 contributors, so please join in!

    • CO-Sen, CO-Gov: This is a real head-scratcher: Ken Buck’s camp is out with an internal poll by POS… showing him losing (despite what a number of public polls have said)?!? The poll gives a 43-40 edge to Michael Bennet, with 5 going to the Libertarian candidate. Either this is an odd attempt to mess with Dems’ heads, or, more likely, a message to his supporters to stop taking the race for granted and to keep the contributions flowing. UPDATE: OK, this isn’t a Buck internal; it’s a joint POS/Fairbank Maslin collaboration, and it’s not said on whose behalf this poll was performed. One other bit of news from the poll: it also includes gubernatorial numbers, and John Hickenlooper is closing in on the 50% mark. He’s at 48, to 25 for Dan Maes and 15 for Tom Tancredo.

    • DE-Sen: Tax liens and penalties are sort of the common cold of political scandals, but this isn’t timed well for Mike Castle, who’s trying to stave off a last-minute zone-flooding from Tea Party Express on behalf of Christine O’Donnell. Castle had to make interest and penalty payments three times on his Capitol Hill pad in 2005 and 2006, although of course that pales in comparison to O’Donnell’s long track record of ducking her bills. Meanwhile, we have a sense of what the Tea Party Express‘s fully operational battle station looks like: they’ve spent only $60K on O’Donnell’s behalf so far, but plan to have spent $250K by the primary (including more airing of their TV spot and radio ad, as well as direct mail and out-of-state phone banking).

    • KY-Sen: The moneybomb shoe’s on the other foot: Jack Conway’s doing an online one-day fundraising scramble today. As of 1 pm ET, the day’s total was up to $130K. Meanwhile, against that moneybomb backdrop, is an instance of a paid Rand Paul staffer having gotten caught sockpuppeting over at Daily Kos, concern-trolling against Conway from the left.

    • NH-Sen: A lot of money ($10K from various officers and employees) has flowed into Kelly Ayotte’s campaign from a decidedly sketchy company in Texas: Tax Masters, one of those companies that relies heavily on late-night advertising to generate business for helping resolve debts owed to the IRS. The company and its CEO were charged with multiple violations of Texas’s consumer protection laws, in the wake of hundreds of consumer complaints.

    • OH-Sen, OH-Gov: The Columbus Dispatch offers up some truly bad numbers for the Democratic candidates in Ohio, finding Rob Portman leading Lee Fisher 50-37 in the Senate race and John Kasich leading Ted Strickland 49-37 in the governor’s race (and the GOP winning all lower statewide races too), among registered voters. One important caveat, though: the Dispatch’s poll are notoriously an all-mail-in survey (why not just poll subscribers to Literary Digest?!?), and have consistently ranked dead last in most of 538’s pollster ratings (until the most recent installment, when they managed to leap ahead of a few other members of the rogues’ gallery, including Research 2000, ARG, and Zogby Interactive).

    • WA-Sen: Patty Murray leaked an internal poll today to Politico, showing that the needle has barely budged in this race between two ubiquitously-known, well-defined candidates. The Fairbank Maslin poll gives Murray a 50-45 lead, and 53/42 approval. An April internal by the same pollster, back when Dino Rossi was only considering entering the race, gave Murray an 8-point lead.

    • MA-Gov: A poll from local wire service State House News Service gives a decent lead to Deval Patrick, thanks to an assist from Tim Cahill. Their first poll of the gubernatorial race has Patrick leading Republican Charlie Baker, independent Cahill, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein 34-28-18-4, among registered voters.

    • MD-Gov: For every Joe Miller, there’s, well, a Brian Murphy. The Washington Post takes a quick look at the upstart GOP gubernatorial candidate, whose Sarah Palin endorsement hasn’t turned into much of anything (other than a way for Bob Ehrlich to burnish his moderate credentials). In the pre-primary reporting period (all of which covers the post-Palin period), he’s raised only $35K, including $14K from himself, leaving him with $31K CoH. Ehrlich raised $725K over the 18-day period, taking him to $2.5 million CoH, while Dem Martin O’Malley raised $267K and has $6.5 million CoH.

    • MI-Gov: While organized labor is the biggest force propelling Dem Virg Bernero in Michigan, there’s one union that isn’t falling in line. The state’s largest construction union, the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, is backing Rick Snyder instead. More alarmingly for Bernero, the much-larger Teamsters haven’t endorsed yet and could conceivably go for Snyder too.

    • MS-Gov: The 2011 election is only fourteen months away, and things are taking shape in Mississippi. Phil Bryant, the first-term Republican Lt. Governor, is taking steps to prepare for a bid. Businessman Dave Dennis also seems likely to run, while the state’s great-named SoS, Delbert Hosemann, also sounds like he’s interested.

    • TX-Gov: We have two wildly divergent polls in Texas, both from GOP pollsters. Hill Research, on behalf of the Texas Watch Foundation (in a poll that seems primarily about homeowners’ insurance reform, but where the gube race seems to have gotten thrown-in as an attention-getter), finds Rick Perry leading Bill White by only a 42-41 margin. On the other hand, GOPAC (perhaps having gotten an advance heads-up about the Texas Watch numbers) rolled out numbers showing Perry in better shape. Their poll, via Wilson Research Strategies, gives Perry a 50-38 lead over White.

    • KS-04: With polling now pretty consistently showing Mike Pompeo leading Raj Goyle by single digits in the open seat race in the 4th, the last thing the Republicans can afford here is a high-profile third-party challenge on the right. That’s what they might get, though, if businessman (and former Tic-Tac-Dough host) Wink Hartman follows through on threats to pick up the just-abandoned Libertarian ballot line. The state party has started scrambling to lean on Hartman to get him to stand down.

    • NY-various: There’s a bonanza of pre-primary fundraising reports in New York (where the primary is next week). The biggest raiser among the various Republican House challengers was Chris Cox in the 1st, who raised $103K to Randy Altschuler’s $59K (although Altschuler still has a big CoH advantage). In the 23rd, the numbers were much smaller: Matt Doheny raised $41K and Doug Hoffman raised $37K, although Doheny has about three times Hoffman’s CoH.

    • WV-01: On the back of the DCCC’s wave of internal polls today, here’s one more poll that probably has to go in the “good news” file: an internal poll, from POS, has Republican David McKinley trailing Dem Mike Oliverio in the open seat race in the 1st. Oliverio leads McKinley 41-36. The only other poll of this race was an Oliverio internal last month that gave him a seemingly too-good-to-be-true 52-36 lead over McKinley, but at the very least, it seems like everyone’s in agreement that Oliverio’s in pole position for now.

    • Ads:

    • CO-Sen: The DSCC is out with an ad in Colorado, letting Ken Buck go after himself with his own words on Social Security and the 17th Amendment

    • DE-Sen: Mike Castle’s new ad is out; predictably, it goes after Christine O’Donnell for her crazy finances

    • FL-Sen: First TV ad from Charlie Crist, stressing his (what else?) independence; also Kendrick Meek’s first TV ad, which is him on a swamp boat and stressing his (what else?) Dem credentials

    • MO-Sen: Roy Blunt ad about how much he loves small business

    • OH-Sen: Lee Fisher’s first TV ad out of the gate is negative, going after Rob Portman for being George Bush’s job-exporting trade representative

    • CA-Gov: Strangely sepia-toned ad is Jerry Brown’s first, seemingly to remind older Californians about how much things sucked less when he was Governor the first time (SOTB: $1.2 million for one week… that’s California for you)

    • FL-Gov: Rick Scott’s first post-primary TV ad is an attack ad against… Barack Obama? (and Alex Sink, too, I guess)

    • GA-Gov: Roy Barnes goes negative against Nathan Deal on the issues of his recently-released tax returns, calling him “too corrupt even for Congress”

    • SC-Gov: Nikki Haley’s first TV spot, outsider-themed with a jab at Mark Sanford

    • FL-22: The new Ron Klein spot is another anti-Allen West spot, but still hammering on the tax liens instead of, well, West’s non-stop stream-of-consciousness crazy

    • ID-01: Walt Minnick’s first TV spot: please disregard the “D” next to his name, because he’s independent

    • IN-02: The NRCC’s first television IE of the cycle, hitting Joe Donnelly for, well, being a Democrat

    • IN-08: Trent van Haaften’s first TV ad is a basic introductory spot

    • PA-03: Kathy Dahlkemper’s second ad tries to cram “jobs” in there as many times as possible

    • PA-06: Manan Trivedi’s first TV ad also works the outsider angle

    • PA-11: Paul Kanjorski’s second ad works the Social Security privatization angle, smart in such an aged district

    • PA-15: Interestingly, Charlie Dent’s first ad is a negative shot against John Callahan (on local property taxes), indicating he may be feeling some heat here

    • WI-07: Julie Lassa’s second ad goes after Sean Duffy for saying that he can’t do anything to create jobs

    • AFSCME: Here’s the big buy of the day: the AFSCME is shelling out $1.5 million in four states (Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) for an ad attacking Republicans for voting against the state aid package in August)

    • Rasmussen:

    • DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 37%, Mike Castle (R) 48%

    • DE-Sen: Chris Coons (D) 47%, Christine O’Donnell (R) 36%

    • ID-Gov: Keith Allred (D) 36%, Butch Otter (R-inc) 52%

    • ID-Sen: Tom Sullivan (D) 24%, Mike Crapo (R-inc) 63%

    • MA-Gov: Deval Patrick (D-inc) 39%, Charlie Baker (R) 34%, Tim Cahill (I) 18%

    • NE-Gov: Mike Meister (D) 28%, Dave Heineman (R-inc) 61%

    • NV-Gov: Rory Reid (D) 33%, Brian Sandoval (R) 58%

    • NV-Sen: Harry Reid (D-inc) 45%, Sharron Angle (R) 45%

    Senate and Gubernatorial Rankings – September

    Rankings are ‘Tilt’ (less than 5 point race), ‘Lean’ (5-10 point race) and ‘Favored ‘(10-20 point race). Anything beyond that is ‘Solid’ for either party.

    August rankings at link.

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

    SENATE

    Dem Tilt

    IL (Which matters more, state or year? I think the latter but only just.)

    NV (Rasmussen’s latest has Reid up three with leaners which is probably about right.)

    WI (Basically a tie in most polling. I think the DSCC will have to bail Feingold out here.)

    WA (Same deal as WI and IL.)

    Rep Tilt

    CO (Very few post-primary polls but looks like Buck is up. Bennet has a chance because his opponent says crazy things.)

    KY (Best chance of a pickup but only because of Rand Paul.)

    FL (Rubio ahead thanks to the exposure of the Dem primary but Crist still well in the game.)

    Rep Lean

    MO (I don’t expect Blunt to win by much but I now expect him to win.)

    PA (I really hope Sestak hasn’t left it too late to try and define Toomey.)

    NH (Still a chance that Ayotte isn’t the nominee.)

    OH (Fisher doesn’t have the money to compete.)

    Dem Lean

    CA (Very close to only a tilt but CA is more Dem than WA and WI.)

    CT (Maybe should be favored still but the last two polls were a worry.)

    Rep Lean

    NC (Unless the DSCC gets involved I don’t see Marshall getting close. Unfortunately I doubt they can afford it.)

    Dem Favored

    WV (Need to see more polling before moving this to leans but suspect may need to.)

    Rep Favored

    DE (Castle probably wins the primary but it is damaging him. I think Coons will surprise people.)

    IN (Like Castle, Coats never seems to poll much above 50 but the year looks to much to overcome.)

    LA (Vitter doesn’t deserve his easy ride. A Dem would be toast in an equivalent state.)

    AR (I seriously doubt that Lincoln loses as she polls but she is certain to lose.)

    AK (Not as hopeful as some about this but I guess you never know.)

    ND safely in the GOP column.

    GOVERNORS

    Dem Tilt

    OR (Kitzhaber goes negative and not a moment too soon.)

    MN (Would be leans if not for the latest poll.)

    MD (O’Malley consistently leads if by a small amount.)

    FL (Exit of Chiles is a boost to Sink but this is no slam dunk despite Scott’s negatives.)

    MA (I suspect Cahill’s support will start to bleed away but Patrick should still squeeze past Baker.)

    Rep Tilt

    GA (Deal was probably the best opponent for Barnes but still tough this year.)

    IL (Hopefully Quinn continues to close but he is still behind for now.)

    ME (Not much polling here so anything could happen as in the primaries.)

    VT (The primary may have been civil but overtime is hurting.)

    NM (Denish has work to do but all is not lost.)

    WI (Walker missteps mean I’m more bullish here than I was.)

    CA (Whitman barrage finally takes a toll in the polls. I still think Brown can turn it around.)

    Dem Lean

    CT (Malloy has the advantage but I wonder if Foley’s money will yet tighten things up.)

    Rep Lean

    AZ (Brewer’s debate mess gives Goddard a chance.)

    MI (Snyder has appeal to Dems but hopefully Bernero can yet catch fire.)

    PA (Probably ends up closer than the polls suggest but not much chance of an Onorato win.)

    TX (Polling seems to be moving this out of grasp which is a damn shame.)

    OH (Can’t quite believe Kasich is doing this but believe we must.)

    Dem Favored

    CO (Governor Hickenlooper I presume!)

    HI (Abercrombie likely wins primary and then the general.)

    RI (Either Chafee wins or Caprio wins, neither is a Republican so we can safely count this as a Dem pickup.)

    Rep Favored

    SC (If any of this category tighten it will be here. Pushback in the base to Haley gives Sheheen an opening. Possibly.)

    OK (Askins may yet make this competitive but probably not enough.)

    IA (Ugly numbers for the incumbent means defeat.)

    NV (Rory needs to avoid a blowout to help his dad.)

    AL (Sparks is good but Bentley is better and this is Alabama in a heavily GOP year.)

    ID (Not as big a lead for the GOP as one would expect but it is still Idaho.)

    KS (Theoretically Holland may be able to exploit the state moderate/conservative split but I doubt he gets close.)

    SD (Daugaaurd is popular and in 2010 that is more than enough for a Republican in a red state.)

    TN (Haslam has some moderate credentials so could be worse I guess.)

    AK (Parnell should be safe but Berkowitz will make him work for it.)

    WY (No Freudenthal means no Dem governor.)

    UT (This is Utah.)

    Projection

    SENATE – GOP +6

    GOVERNORS – GOP +7

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/27 (Evening Edition)

    • FL-Sen: Well, so much for the secret ballot. The Palm Beach Post deduced that Jeff Greene voted for himself… inasmuch as his vote was the only vote for himself in his entire precinct. It was a 2-to-1 vote (literally… Kendrick Meek got 2). Even his wife didn’t vote for him, although that’s because she isn’t registered to vote in the county. (Marco Rubio got 26 votes in the same precinct.) Meanwhile, Charlie Crist seems to have lost some of his footing after a convincing Meek victory in the Dem primary; he flip-flopped on health care reform in the space of one day, saying in a TV interview that he would have voted for health care reform, then, after the Rubio camp started flagging that, saying later in the day that he actually wouldn’t have voted for it. I get that he wants to appeal to both Dems and moderate GOPers, but he has to be less transparent than that.

    • IL-Sen: Bad news for Alexi Giannoulias: the Constitution Party slate just got struck from the ballot, so Randy Stufflebeam won’t be there to siphon right-wing votes from Mark Kirk. Libertarian candidate Mark Labno will be on the ballot, though, as a Kirk alternative (as will Green LeAlan Jones).

    • IN-Sen: This is sort of pushing the outer limit of when it’s a good idea to release an internal, but it looks like the Brad Ellsworth camp needed to let people know that he’s still in this race. His own poll, via Garin Hart Yang, finds him trailing Dan Coats 49-38. The race is closer among those who actually know Ellsworth, but his six-week-long ad buy is about to end, so his name rec problems may persist.

    • KY-Sen: Jack Conway is joining Elaine Marshall on the Alan Simpson-pile-on, seconding calls for the firing of Simpson from the Social Security commission in the wake of his “milk cow” comments. Meanwhile, Rand Paul has apparently brushed up on his elementary math skills recently, as he’s now backtracking on previous pledges to erase the nation’s federal budget deficit in one year.

    • MO-Sen, MO-04: Although this poll from Missouri State University (on behalf of TV station KY3) looks good for Robin Carnahan, it’s got some methodological issues that we just aren’t comfortable with. It was taken over the period of Aug. 7-22, is of registered (not likely) voters, and it also wound up with a sample that was 63% female, although they say they weighted for various demographic factors. At any rate, it shows the race a dead heat, with Roy Blunt leading Robin Carnahan 49-48. It also took looks at three House races in the Show Me State, although with MoEs in the 7% ballpark. In the 4th, Ike Skelton has a 47-35 lead over Vicki Hartzler. Two GOP-held seats look to be pretty uneventful: in the open 7th, Billy Long leads Scott Eckersley 51-23, and in the 8th, Jo Ann Emerson leads fundraising maven Tommy Sowers 64-17.

    • WI-Sen: Seems like it was just this morning we were discussing the second instance of Ron Johnson’s flagrant hypocrisy when it comes to railing against government involvement in the market, except when it comes to government aid for his own business… and now we’re up to a third instance before the day’s even out. On Wednesday it came out that in 1985 he’d gotten $2.5 million in government loans to expand his plastics business, and now it’s come out that in 1983, two years earlier, he’d gotten a separate $1.5 million loan for a $4 mil total.

    • NM-Gov: The DGA is out with a new ad against Susana Martinez in the gubernatorial race, hitting her for $350K in bonuses handed out in her prosecutor’s office. NWOTSOTB, but we’re told it’s a statewide saturation buy.

    • VT-Gov: The final count from the SoS office in the Dem gubernatorial primary seemed to get finished ahead of schedule, as numbers today gave Peter Shumlin a 197-vote win over Doug Racine. Racine said that he would go ahead and request a recount; state law provides for a taxpayer-funded recount for a candidate trailing by less than 2% (seems like a pretty generous recount policy compared with most states). In keeping with the primary’s very civil tone, both candidates continued to praise each other and say they understood the recount choices.

    • CO-07: Republican pollster Magellan (which put out an internal for Scott Tipton in CO-03 last week) is out with a poll in the 7th as well now, although this appears to be on their own, not as an internal for Ryan Frazier. At any rate, their poll gives a 40-39 lead to Republican Frazier, over incumbent Dem Ed Perlmutter. (10% opt for “some other candidate.”)

    • MS-04: Thanks to Haley Barbour, the previously low-dollar campaign of state Rep. Steven Palazzo just kicked into higher gear (or into gear, period). Barbour held a fundraiser for Palazzo that raised $177K, which will help his uphill campaign against Democratic Rep. Gene Taylor.

    • SC-05: Another POS poll in the 5th on behalf of GOP state Sen. Mick Mulvaney has him making up ground on Rep. John Spratt; the two are now tied at 46-46. Spratt led by 2 in a previous POS poll in May. Spratt retorted to CQ that in his own polling he was ahead with “breathing room,” but declined to provide specific numbers.

    • Ads: Other ads for your consideration today include not one but two new ads from Roy Barnes, going negative against Nathan Deal (on the ethics issue, but also general Washington-bashing). In OH-Gov, Ted Strickland is also out with a double-shot of ads, hitting John Kasich for his free-trading past. Chet Edwards is out with an anti-Bill Flores ad in TX-17 accusing Flores of lying about having voted for GOPer Rob Curnock in 2008 (he didn’t vote at all that day), while the Club for Growth is out with a PA-Sen ad that calls Joe Sestak “liberal” several hundred times in the space of 30 seconds.

    • Rasmussen:

    • AZ-Sen: Rodney Glassman (D) 31%, John McCain (R-inc) 53%

    • FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 36%, Rick Scott (R) 41%, Bud Chiles (I) 8%

    • NM-Gov: Diane Denish (D) 43%, Susana Martinez (R) 48%

    • SC-Gov: Vincent Sheheen (D) 36%, Nikki Haley (R) 52%

    • WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Scott Walker (R) 47%

    • WI-Gov: Tom Barrett (D) 44%, Mark Neumann (R) 48%

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/26 (Afternoon Edition)

    • AZ-Sen: Bad news! For John McCain! J.D. Hayworth still hasn’t conceded. He’s still waiting for those late-breaking absentee ballots to help him make up that oh-so-narrow 56-32 margin, apparently.

    • CT-Sen: This doesn’t seem like it’ll end well for Linda McMahon, whose stance on WWE has been that it’s harmless soap opera. Harley McNaught, the father of recently-deceased pro wrestler Lance Cade (who died of heart failure at age 29 in the wake of painkiller addiction), is going on the offense against McMahon in response to her comments that she “might have met him once.” McNaught said that he’d been to several functions with his son where they’d met McMahon and she’d known him by name, and also ripped the company’s “Wellness Program,” which he says was more about PR than about helping employees.

    • DE-Sen: There’s no third-party fallback option for teabagger Christine O’Donnell, challenging Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination. The Constitution Party had nominated O’Donnell for its ballot line, but didn’t even receive a ballot line after its membership dwindled to 287(!) members. (That’s less than something called the “Blue Enigma Party,” which still qualified for the ballot.) O’Donnell still can mount a write-in campaign after losing the primary to Castle (which she already did in the 2006 race after losing the primary to Jan Ting).

    • KY-Sen: Our James L. summed this up pithily: “Douche Day Afternoon.” Losing Dem Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo’s latest statement of semi-support for Jack Conway was that Conway was “not the best” but that “he’s a heck of a lot better” than Rand Paul, whose “scare[s him].”

    • PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): The newest Franklin & Marshall poll is another one of their choose-your-own-adventure specials, which shows the dimensions of the enthusiasm gap the Dems are facing, especially in the Keystone State. In the Senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 40-31 among likely voters, but only 31-28 among registered voters, which isn’t much different from where we left off with their last general election poll in May. And in the gubernatorial race, it’s similar, with Tom Corbett leading Dan Onorato 38-27 among LVs, but only 29-28 (probably the best showing I’ve seen in a head-to-head in this race) among RVs.

    • FL-Gov: With Hayworth and Murkowski already mentioned today, it’s just turning out to be the big day of GOP disunity and sour grapes all around. While figures like Jeb Bush and state party chair John Thrasher have gotten behind Rick Scott without any major hedging, Bill McCollum is continuing his sulk, flat-out not endorsing Scott.  

    • KY-Gov: The aptly-named Republican Agriculture Commissioner, Richie Farmer (I guess “Rich Farmer” was a little too overly descriptive), is still mulling over a run for Governor in next year’s off-year election against Dem incumbent Steve Beshear, where early polling has shown he’d be competitive. He’s also been linked to a possible Lt. Gov. bid, as running mate to state Senate president David Williams.

    • SC-Gov: In another sign that a chunk of the local political establishment prefers Dem Vincent Sheheen to GOPer Nikki Haley, Sheheen just got the endorsement of 30 mayors around South Carolina. Most of these mayors are in nonpartisan elected positions, although one, Greer mayor Rick Danner, said he was a two-time voter for Mark Sanford.

    • VT-Gov: Faced with the unenviable task of certifying her own gubernatorial primary loss, SoS Deb Markowitz says that the final certification of the super-close race in Vermont will be done on next Tuesday. All five candidates appeared amicably at a unity rally yesterday, but only shortly after Doug Racine’s campaign manager called Peter Shumlin’s declaration of victory premature, saying to wait until Tuesday. Shumlin currently leads Racine by 192 votes.

    • AL-02: Rep. Bobby Bright caused some hyperventilating today when it came out that, in meeting with constituents, had punted on the issue of whether or not he’d be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker next session. He did so by listing a number of reasons why that might not be an issue, including the decidedly morbid “heck, she might even get sick and die.”

    • CA-18: I don’t know who looks worse in this situation, Mike Berryhill (the Republican launching an uphill, but generally credible, challenge to Rep. Dennis Cardoza), or his former campaign consultant John Villareal. Apparently they parted ways in unpleasant fashion, as Villareal blasted Berryhill’s campaign as a lost cause… but did it in the form of a somewhat unhinged-sounding, 25-minute long rant posted to YouTube.

    • OH-17: Jim Traficant may still yet be able to beam himself back into Congress. He just got an extension from Jennifer Brunner, giving him more time to prove that he did collect enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot as an independent. He previously got bounced for the ballot for not having enough valid signatures.

    • OR-05: Hot on the heels of a too-good-to-be-true internal from Scott Bruun giving him a small lead a few days ago, Rep. Kurt Schrader hauled out his own internal from Lake Research giving him a pretty comfortable lead: 46-35. The poll’s from late July, though, so one wonders if there’s a more recent one that he’s not sharing.

    • PA-08: The ubiquitous POS is out with an internal poll on behalf of ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, giving him a 7-point lead (48-41) over Democratic sophomore Rep. Patrick Murphy. Murphy hasn’t been one of the Dems’ top worries in Pennsylvania, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Dem brand in Pennsylvania seems to be waning particularly quickly.

    • VA-05: Tom Perriello, in an interesting bit of distancing from national Dems that’s ambiguous enough that it works from both right and left, called for the replacement of Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner, at a local town hall. He didn’t say who his preferred replacement would be (Robert Reich, anyone?).

    • Ads: Lead-off ad of the day is from Alan Grayson in FL-08; the Hotline actually says it makes Grayson look “angelic” and they refer to it as the most positive ad they’ve seen so far from anyone. That Grayson… always zigging when everyone else is zagging. Other Dems out with their first TV ads for themselves today include Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03, Julie Lassa in WI-07, and Tom Hayhurst in IN-03.

    All the GOP ads today are anti-Dem ads being run by third party groups: America’s Future Fund running against Bruce Braley in IA-01, the Heritage Foundation’s lobbying arm against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, and Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity running against Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and a weird two-fer (aimed at the Phoenix market, I guess) attacking both Anne Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell in AZ-01 and AZ-05. NWOTSOTB, on any of the ads.

    • Rasmussen:

    • CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 40%, Meg Whitman (R) 48%

    • FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

    • UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 60%

    • UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%