NC State Senate – Could Dems Lose Control?

http://www.wral.com/news/local…

Democrats have a 31-19 majority in the North Carolina State Senate. Democrats have controlled the Senate for an amazing 130 consecuative years.  Could this be the year that changes?

John Davis, the former president of NCFREE, a non-partisan political research business association, has been tracking legislative races for 23 years. This year, he said, eight Democratic seats are vulnerable, which could shift the balance of power in the chamber.

“If you look at all the competitive districts, most are Republican-leaning held by Democrats,” Davis said. “There’s actually the possibility that Republicans could take over the Senate.”

In addition to the Republican-leaning districts in western North Carolina, some of the incumbents face legal and public relations problems, Davis said.

Not surprisingly, both parties are confident of winning control.

Considering the heavy voter registration in NC this year, which has resulted in a net increase of 200,000 more Democrats than Republicans, I don’t see the Democrats losing 7 seats – and control.  Add in the expected heavy turnout of Democratic voters, losing this many Senate seats would be shocking.

 

NY-SD7: 3rd Craig Johnson for NY State Senate TV Ad Is Up

Here’s the third Craig Johnson (D-WFP) for State Senate TV commercial.  Craig is running in a Feb 6 special election for an open New York State Senate seat in northwestern Nassau County.

Eliot Spitzer’s ad man Jimmy Siegel directed the ad; you can see Siegel’s first two ads for the Johnson campaign here and here.

In the ad, titled “How to Save,” five accountants from the Seventh Senate District take O’Connell to task for her record of raising taxes.

Be sure to read about the O’Connell audit scandal and sign up to be part of the Johnson campaign GOTV push!

6 days until Election Day!

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The ad features Certified Public Accountants Ellyn Sosin and Lenny Kreigel of New Hyde Park, Mitch Beckerman of Great Neck, Larry Greenstein of Port Washington and Accountant Stephen Goodman of Great Neck.

Here’s the full script:

TITLE: “How to Save”

TEXT:
Here’s what you need to know to save on taxes this year.

Maureen O’Connell voted to raise taxes and fees over 80 times–a product of the same Republican machine that almost brought Nassau County to its knees.

It might have happened, if Craig Johnson hadn’t jumped in, working with Tom Suozzi to create a remarkable financial turnaround.

Bringing Nassau back to fiscal health.

So, on February 6, you can vote for someone who raises taxes–

Or, vote for someone who will lower them.

SUPER: Vote Craig Johnson for State Senate.

Special Election, February 6th.

6 days until Election Day!

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NY-SD7: New York Times Endorses Johnson for Open Senate Seat

Craig Johnson (D-WFP) has the momentum in the Feb 6 special election for an open New York State Senate seat in the Seventh Senate District in northwestern Nassau County.  Adding to his momentum, the New York Times has just endorsed Craig for State Senate:

The New York Times
Sunday, January 28, 2007
A State Senate Endorsement

The sudden vacancy in the 7th State Senate District has caused both parties to leap in with guns blazing.  When the Republican incumbent, Michael Balboni, quit to join the Spitzer administration as chief of homeland security, the race to succeed him became instantly negative and hugely expensive.

That’s because so much is at stake beyond just control of a single seat in northwest Nassau County – control of the Senate, for instance, where the Republican majority has been nearing the vanishing point, as well as the reform agenda of Gov. Eliot Spitzer, who broke with a tradition of gubernatorial nonaggression in such races to appear in an ad hailing the Democratic candidate, Craig Johnson, as an ally in the crusade to fix Albany.

Mr. Johnson, who was elected to the Nassau Legislature in 2000 after the death of the incumbent – his mother, Barbara – is challenging Maureen O’Connell, who became the Nassau County clerk a little over a year ago and now wants to return to Albany, where she served as an assemblywoman since 1998.  With very little time to campaign – the special election in Feb 6 – both sides are running at a frantic pace.

Their ads are studies in negativity, with Mr. Johnson’s campaign accusing Ms. O’Connell of being as anti-choice extremist on reproductive issues, and Ms. O’Connell running a preposterous spot showing a woman tied to railroad tracks about to mowed down by a train.  The train represents taxes, taxes, taxes, specifically the 19-percent increase that County Executive Thomas Suozzi pushed through the Legislature in his first term as part of his utterly sensible – and successful – effort to rescue Nassau’s finances from decades of Republican misrule.

Of the charges being burled back and forth over the airwaves, we find Mr. Johnson’s the more persuasive. Ms. O’Connell does have a troubling record on choice, having taken stands in Albany – like voting against as emergency contraception bill when it was in committee – that infringed on women’s reproductive rights.

Ms. O’Connell’s claims that Mr. Johnson’s taxing madman are, by contrast, unfounded.  The Suozzi tax plan he voted for was a prudent and responsible response to a fiscal mess. He has also assembled a credible record on other issues, including open space preservation.

The race is, though, about something larger – which is the reason the eyes of the whole state are on it.  Governor Spitzer will need the cooperation of the Republican-dominated State Senate if he is going to make progress on the ambitious reform agenda that he has laid out.  Mr. Johnson has vowed to be his ally in the coming battles, while Ms. O’Connell is likely to give reinforcement to the Albany status quo.

For voters who have hopes that Mr. Spitzer will succeed in fixing Albany, as we do, Mr. Johnson is the obvious choice.  We enthusiastically endorse him.

We can’t let up.  You can help.

Sign up to hear about daily volunteer opportunities.

The WFP is running the door-to-door and election day GOTV operation for the Johnson campaign.  Make a donation to help pay for the GOTV program.

Here’s the press release:

MOMENTUM BUILDS: NY TIMES ENDORSES CRAIG JOHNSON
Newspaper Challenges O’Connell’s Credibility on Taxes and Choice

Momentum is building for independent Democrat Craig Johnson’s campaign for State Senate as The New York Times endorsed Johnson over his right-wing Republican opponent, Maureen O’Connell.  An editorial in Sunday’s Timessays:

“Governor Spitzer will need the cooperation of the Republican-dominated State Senate if he is going to make progress on the ambitious reform agenda he has laid out. Mr. Johnson has vowed to be his ally in the coming battles, while Ms. O’Connell is likely to give reinforcement to the Albany status quo.

“For voters who have hopes that Mr. Spitzer will succeed in fixing Albany, as we do, Mr. Johnson is the obvious choice.  We enthusiastically endorse him.”

The Times editorial also debunks O’Connell’s campaign claims:

  • Ms. O’Connell negative spot on Craig Johnson’s record on taxes is called “preposterous”
  • “Ms. O’Connell claims that Mr. Johnson is a taxing madman are, bycontrast, unfounded”
  • Ms. O’Connell, who has tried to deny an anti-choice voting record in the legislature has a record on reproductive health services that the Times calls “troubling”

The 7th Senate District encompasses the entire town of North Hempstead.  It also includes the communities of Elmont, Floral Park, South Floral Park, Stewart Manor, Bellerose, Franklin Square, and part of Hicksville.  Craig Johnson, a member of the Nassau County Legislature, is currently running for the open Senate seat as the Democratic and Working Families Parties candidate.

Johnson has also been endorsed by Governor Eliot Spitzer, U.S. Senator Charles E. Schumer, U.S. Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Lt. Governor David A. Paterson, Nassau County Executive Tom Suozzi, State Assemblyman Tom DiNapoli, People for the American Way, SEIU Local 32BJ, Communication Workers of America District 1, Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union (RWDSU) and Union of Food and Commercial Workers, Local 1500.

10 days until Election Day!

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NY-SD7: WFP Knocks on 23,427 Doors for Craig Johnson

The Working Families Party field operation is hitting the doors every day to elect Craig Johnson to the State Senate. In 12 days we’ve already knocked on 23,427 doors for Craig Johnson, including a one-night high of 2,501 doors this weekend.

You can join in too. This weekend kicked off with State Sen. Liz Krueger meeting volunteers at the Mineola LIRR Train Station and sending them out canvassing for Craig Johnson. Sign up now and find out about more volunteer opportunities.

If it’s to cold or wet for you to canvass outside then you can still help.  A massive field operation like this is an expensive undertaking.  Make a donation to support the field operation.

Pictures after the jump.

15 days until Election Day!

Here are some pictures of the people working hard out there from a recent briefing.  I’ve been tagging these on flickr as NY-SD7, so if you’ve got pictures please add them to the stream.  Careful watchers will be able to pick out Aaron Hecht, the Johnson campaign Field Director, who came in to talk to the canvass before they went out into the field.

JohnsonStateSenate_canvass_10 JohnsonStateSenate_canvass_11
JohnsonStateSenate_canvass_8 JohnsonStateSenate_canvass_9

15 days until Election Day!

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NY-SD7: Joe Mondello Can’t Count

Joe Mondello, Chair of the New York state GOP and of the Nassau County GOP, has a lot riding on the Feb 6 special election for an open New York State Senate seat in the Seventh Senate District.  It’s the first election under his watch as chair of the state GOP, it’s happening in his backyard, and it’s a test of how the state GOP will respond to their drubbing in the 2006 Governor’s race.

So maybe that’s why Joe chose to be a little, shall we say, extravagant with the truth.  From a New York Times article on the race:

The campaign is off to a quick start. “We had 500 people going door to door last weekend, and we hope to have 700 this weekend,” Mr. Mondello said. Democrats say they have an equally ambitious field operation. Their county chairman, Jay S. Jacobs, said that with an expected 10 to 15 percent voter turnout, “the ground game is the decider.”

Yeah right.

Details after the jump.

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Now it is right that the ground game is the decider.  And the Working Families Party is running an ambitious field operation, that’s right too.

But there’s no way the state Republicans have 100 people going door to door, much less 500 or 700.  The thing about canvassing is, if you’re out there canvassing for hours and the other side is out there canvassing for hours then each side’s canvassers are going to run into each other.  But I asked our 45 canvassers, who are knocking on thousands of doors every night, if they’ve seen a GOP door knocker.

The word from the Working Families Party canvass is that yesterday is the first day O’Connell had people on the doors, and it was only a handful of people.

And it’s not like we stick to the areas where turnout has historically been in our favor.  Our targeting is pretty advanced, so we can pick out the voters likely to go our way even in areas that don’t look promising overall.  So we’d be running into any GOP door knockers that are out there.  A couple of nights ago, we were in Maureen O’Connell’s home turf, near her house, and we didn’t see any GOP door knockers.  Not a one.

So I’m asking you. Campaign volunteers were deep in Republican turf in Mineola on Saturday, with not a single Republican walker spotted. If you were out there knocking on doors for Craig, did you see any of Joe Mondello’s imaginary friends?

16 days until Election Day!

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“Raise New York”, a Blograiser For Craig Johnson With Governor Eliot Spitzer

(Let’s do this thing! – promoted by James L.)

(Adapted from a post at the albany project)


We are very, very excited to announce “Raise New York”, a “blograiser” for SSD-07 candidate Craig Johnson featuring Governor Eliot Spitzer! And when I say “we”, I am referring to, amongst many others, The Daily Gotham, Rochester Turning, Democracy In Albany, onNYTurf, WNYMedia.net, Swing State Project and, of course, us here at TAP.

Raise New York will take place on Thursday, February 1st at Prey in NYC. The event will also be liveblogged here and at Daily Gotham and DailyKos. There will be photos, audio and video in near real time for those who for whatever reason can’t attend in person. It’s gonna be a hoot.

What is so exciting about this event for me is that, besides raising some much needed money for Craig Johnson, it represents a real opportunity for partnership building between the progressive net/grassroots and a state Dem Party establishment  that hasn’t always been so interested in such things. There exists some very real potential for some mending of fences and and some trust building amongst all these groups as they fight for a common goal, namely reforming our joke of a state government.

The very nature of how this event came about is unprecedented as far as I can tell. This has never been done, or done in this way, ever before.

It also represents something potentially very special for the progressive NY blogosphere. It’s a demonstration that we can and will work together towards that common goal when we choose to do so. That’s never happened before and these new relationships could turn into something pretty freaking amazing. In fact, this may be what I find  most exciting.

So please join us for this amazing event! Join us in person or online and let’s do all we can to make ol’ Joe Bruno’s majority one seat more tenuous.

NY-SD7 Johnson Works, O’Connell Heads Home Early

I wanted to share an anecdote from the campaign trail with everyone.  In New York’s Seventh District, Craig Johnson (D-WFP) is running for an open State Senate seat in a special election set for February 6th.

Last night, while Craig Johnson was rallying supporters and the Working Families Party canvass was knocking on doors and talking to people, Craig’s Republican opponent Maureen O’Connell was sitting at home.

From Spin Cycle:

“One of Nassau Legis. Craig Johnson’s canvassers in the state Senate race ran into Johnson’s opponent, Republican County Clerk Maureen O’Connell, after the campaign worker got a little lost Monday evening.

O’Connell had just pulled into a driveway in the East Williston neighborhood when the canvasser, needing directions, approached her. As they talked, the canvasser recognized O’Connell and she realized she was talking to one of her opponent’s foot soldiers. They exchanged pleasantries and wished each other luck.”

Now, since the WFP is running the canvass, I can give you the inside story straight from the canvasser who talked to her:

“A little after 5:30, I was trying to find an address on my  turf and was looking from the sidewalk at a number on one of the houses from the  street to determine if it was on my walk list.  A woman saw me looking at her house and came out to ask if she could help me.

I recognized her as Maureen O’Connell as soon as she came out because she had an O’Connell lawn sign and I’m friends with one of her former Assembly opponents.  I decided to exchange pleasantries, and we each did some campaigning and talked about the situation in Albany.  Then she realized I was part of the WFP canvass campaigning for Craig Johnson, and we wished each other good luck and parted ways.  I kept canvassing for the rest of the night and she went back inside.”

Gonna have to work harder than that to win this race.

21 more days until Election Day!

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It’s Official. Nassau Dems Nominate Craig Johnson for SSD-07 Seat

(x-posted from the albany project)

It’s official. As expected, Nassau county dems nominated County Legislator Craig Johnson to run against County Clerk, Maureen O’Connell in the Feb 6th special election to replace new state Homeland Security chief Michael Balboni.

As usual, Newsday is all over it.

NY Dems nominate county legislator Johnson for Senate

Craig Johnson, a popular county legislator, was nominated Monday to run for a key state Senate seat being left vacant by Michael Balboni’s departure to Democratic Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s administration as chief of homeland security.

Jay Jacobs, chairman of the Nassau County Democrats, said Johnson comes to the table with a solid record and base of supporters.

“He knows how to campaign, voters are used to voting for him and he has an excellent record in the Legislature,” Jacobs said.

Johnson was elected to the 11th Legislative District in a special election in 2000 after the death of the former legislator, Barbara Johnson, his mother.

He was re-elected to the post in 2001 and 2003. In 2005, he received 73 percent of the votes, Jacobs said.

This one is gonna be a dogfight and there’s less than month for these campaigns and the parties to make their case. The stakes are HUGE, especially for the GOP, and their new party chair who has deep roots in the district and will likely pull out all the stops to not only protect the seat, but his own home turf.

As for the Dems, the shakeup at the DSCC probably isn’t so well timed given the gravity of the race. Then again, not like they’ve been particularly effective as of late anyway. This race is going to be very expensive and the money advantage definitely tilts towards the GOP at this moment though the voter registration trends tilt towards the Dems. (the trend from Republican to Democrat has been rather steep and pretty quick)

It’s a very expensive and potentially vicious four week sprint to a conclusion that could have massive implications for the future of the entire Republican party in the state of New York.

Let the dogfight begin!