Tag: State Senate

It’s time for the second edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate.  We’ve just past the petitioning and July filing deadlines, and this edition is all about the numbers.

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you’d like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  –Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Senate Democrats announced record fundraising numbers this past week, reporting a historic $3.5 million raised during the first six months of the year. We now have $3.5 million in cash on hand – more than twice the amount of money we had at this point two years ago, when we went on to pick up two seats in the November elections and take control of the Senate for the first time in decades. After all the numbers came in, Senate Democrats reported a combined $25 million in fundraising for re-election efforts over the last 20 months, $10 million more than GOP lawmakers.

Newsday: On and off L.I., state Senate Dems tout petition and fund totals. Dan Janison, of Newsday, wrote a piece on how Senate Democrats are “blowing our political horns” with our impressive fundraising and petition totals. He specifically mentioned the strength of two Long Island campaigns:Sen. Brian Foley’s, which has over $240,000 cash on hand and filed 4,073 Democratic signatures with the Suffolk County Board of Elections -four times the amount required to qualify for the ballot; and Regina Calcaterra’s, who has raised $260,000 since announcing her candidacy this year and now has nearly $180,000 in cash on hand.

Maggie Haberman of  POLITICO coined 2010 the ‘Year of the Woman’ in an extensive piece that hailed our “unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls… in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.” Jimmy Vielkind of the Albany Times Union later chimed in, wondering if “dissatisfaction with the state of state [will] cause voters to think gender at polls?” He noted that our crop of 10 women candidates may benefit from the palpable anti-incumbency sentiment.

NARAL Pro-Choice New York announced their first round of endorsements in the 2010 election and named the following Democratic candidates for State Senate as 100% pro-choice candidates: Regina Calcaterra, Dave Mejias, Carol Gordon, Mike Gianaris, Didi Barrett, Susan Savage, Kathleen Joy, Pam Mackesey, and Robin Wilt. Not a single Republican Senate candidate was endorsed by NARAL.

Eleanor’s Legacy announced the endorsement of two more State Senate candidates: Cynthia Appleton and Pam Mackesey. This makes an unprecedented seven start-up grants that Eleanor’s Legacy has provided to our candidates this election cycle. They have previously endorsed Didi Barrett, Robin Wilt, Regina Calcaterra, Joanne Yepsen, and Mary Wilmot.

Former Nassau County Legislator Dave Mejias is running strong against 21-year Republican incumbent Kemp Hannon and announced he has raised $116,925 and has $112,921 cash on hand . Mejias also released a campaign kick-off video, in which he denounced the dysfunction in Albany.

Joanne Yepsen announced that she raised more than three times as much as her opponent since she announced her candidacy less than three months ago. Yepsen brought in a total $70,000, and currently has $60,000 cash on hand. Her opponent, Roy McDonald, shockingly announced that his cash on hand actually went down over the past six months. After starting January with $48,000 in the bank, he now has just $44,000.

Didi Barrett reported that she raised over $160,000 since declaring her candidacy just three months ago . The number far surpasses the amount of cash her opponent, a 30-year Albany insider, had on hand when Barrett entered the race. The campaign also collected 3,700 signatures — almost four times the required amount to get on the ballot.

Susan Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley, reported that she raised more than $75,000 for her campaign — almost twice what Farley reported raising over the same time period. “If we want to change Albany, we have to change who we send to Albany. This filing is a clear sign that the people of New York agree,” said Doug Forand, one of Savage’s campaign advisers.

Sen. Darrel Aubertine had an impressive week: he received the Rural Schools Association ‘Appreciation Award, was deemed a “hero” by the New York Farm Bureau, and outraised his GOP opponent. The New York State Rural Schools Association honored Sen. Aubertine with its annual Appreciation Award for his work on behalf of rural schools while Peter Gregg, a New York Farm Bureau spokesman, called him a “hero” and added “we are extremely grateful for Sen. Aubertine. He worked miracles to get the funding restored at the levels at which he did. There was absolutely no money and he somehow found it.” Later in the week, Sen. Aubertine announced he has outraised his opponent by about $24,000 during the first six months of the year. Sen. Aubertine raised over $87,000 in the period, and now has over $159,000 in cash on hand – or about $110,000 more than his opponent

Sen. William Stachowski announced that he now has over $287,000 in cash on hand, after raising nearly $142,000 over the past six months. He also submitted 3,447 signatures on his ballot petitions, well over the required amount to gain ballot access. “Voters in my district are coming to appreciate the importance of qualified, independent representation,” he said. Sen. Stachowski also received the backing of the Independence Party and will appear on their ballot line this fall.

Sen. David Valesky posted impressive fundraising totals, while his Republican challengers are mired in a costly primary battle. Sen. Valesky raised $200,000 over the past six months, and has $465,580 in his campaign coffers. He also received the backing of the Independence Party over his opponent, little-known pianist Andrew Russo.

Tony Avella, running against 38-year Republican incumbent Frank Padavan, received the endorsement of City Council Member Margaret Chin – the first Asian American and the first Chinese American elected to represent New York City’s Chinatown in the city council, and the first Asian American woman elected to the city council.  “Tony Avella is the kind of elected leader that we need in Albany,” stated Council Member Chin, standing in front of the Flushing Public Library. “He has remained a champion for good government and consistently fought for his constituents while a member of the New York City Council.”

Finally, Regina Calcaterra’s campaign launched a new website, and hit their opponent Ken LaValle for improperly using his tax-payer-funded government site to launch political attacks against Democrats.

REPUBLICANS

Siena’s most recent election poll spells trouble for the GOP, showing that less than one in four voters want a Republican Senate, and 69% of voters preferred the existing or an enlarged Democratic majority. In upstate New York – where Republicans sit in most of the Senate seats – just 26% of those polled wanted Republican control of the Senate, as opposed to the 68% who favored Democratic control. Voters upstate are far more pessimistic about the direction of the state – with 86% saying we are on the wrong track – and more likely to vote their incumbent Senator out of office. This is the just the latest in a series of polls that have consistently indicated trouble for Republicans and their electoral prospects this November.

Newsday reported that at a screening for a possible endorsement of Lee Zeldin, the Republican candidate running against Democratic Sen. Brian Foley, Zeldin “turned angry”  when his military record came up. James LaCarrubba, Brian Foley’s top aide, said no one questions Zeldin’s service, just his demeanor. “We appreciate his service. But this is a man who wants to represent 300,000 people. And a candidate in a room full of people should be able to control his temper,” he said.

A Westchester County business group backed off supporting three Republican candidates  for state senate after some members expressed alarm over the sudden foray into partisan politics. The Business Council of Westchester offered an apology to its members and Council President and CEO Marsha Gordon, in an e-mail to members, apologized “for deviating from our tradition of being nonpartisan” and promised to return any checks.

Democratic Candidate Regina Calcaterra criticized her opponent, 34-year Republican incumbent Ken LaValle, for knowingly deceiving voters on Eastern Long Island about his support for jobs creation, saying he supported a measure to fund small businesses — after he voted to kill the legislation that created it.

Writing at POLITICO, Maggie Haberman profiles Democratic women challenging incumbent Republicans in the State Senate, and notes that The Year of the Woman Hits New York:

The Year of the Woman candidate has arrived in New York for the 2010 cycle, with an unprecedented slate of 10 female hopefuls vying for legislative office on the Democratic side in a state known as politically progressive but lagging at the state level.

With help from EMILY’s List over the last few years, the state Senate Democrats now have 10 women competing in districts ranging from swing-county Suffolk in Long Island to more rural areas of upstate New York.

“I think it is reflective of a larger pattern throughout the country,” said state Sen. Liz Krueger (D-Manhattan), who is the recruitment chair for the political arm of the Senate Democrats. “Women in both parties throughout the country are looking at who’s in office and saying, ‘Oh hell, I can do better than that!'”

Women make up 52% of the population in New York State. So it’s shameful that only 16% (just 10 out of 62) of our state senators are women. The slate of women candidates run by the New York Senate Dems could double the number of women serving in the state senate, and clear the way for progress on a host of issues including ethics reform and marriage equality. But what these women bring to the table goes far beyond reform and social issues that have defined past campaigns by women.

The slate of candidates looking to unseat 1/3 or the republican conference demonstrate a strong a track record of economic achievement around which they are focusing their campaigns.  These women created jobs at the county level; they increased investment in green jobs; they even took on Wall Street giants – and won.  They’re fighting not only to end the dysfunction in Albany, but to put our state back on sound economic footing

“I think what sets these women apart is they’re accomplished in their own rights and own careers and now want to turn their attentions [to government],” said state Sen. Jeff Klein, adding that those running are not being pigeonholed into campaigning on what are typically considered “women’s issues,” a fate that has befallen some other female Empire State candidates.

This election cycle, the stakes have never been higher.  Democrats hold a razor-thin, one vote majority in the State Senate.  The outcome of these races will determine how effective we are at moving a Democratic Agenda in 2011 and putting our state back on track.

As Susan Savage, the Democratic challenger to 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, says – “We’re not going to change Albany until we change the people that we send to Albany.” With your help, these women will unseat Republican obstructionists who created Albany’s corrupt culture, help revive our economy, and give New Yorkers the government they deserve.

Below is a quick look at the New York Senate Dems class of women challengers.  Click the links for more information, or to join and contribute to their campaigns.

Susan Savage – Chair of the Schenectady County Legislature, she created thousands of jobs and brought millions in investments into the county.  She is challenging 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley in the 44th Senate District.

Joanne Yepsen – As Saratoga County Supervisor, Joanne Yepsen held down local taxes and helped local businesses. She is now challenging Joe Bruno’s hand-picked-successor, Roy McDonald, in the 43rd Senate District.

Didi Barrett – A leader in the non profit world for decades, and a strong advocate for women in New York, Didi Barrett is challenging 20-year incumbent Steve Saland in the 41st Senate District, the seat once held by FDR.

Mary Wilmot – As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces, and she is determined to revitalize New York’s economy through investments in clean energy.  Wilmot is challenging 14-year incumbent James Alesi in the 55th Senate District.

Robin Wilt – As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. She is the co-founder of the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, and is challenging seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

Regina Calcaterra – A corporate fraud lawyer who took on Wall Street and won, Regina Calcaterra is now taking the fight to thirty-four-year incumbent Ken LaValle in Suffolk County’s 1st Senate District.

Kathleen Joy – Syracuse Common Counselor-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a record promoting green infrastructure.  She’s now challenging 18-year incumbent, and self-described GOP “pit bull” John DeFrancisco in the 50th Senate Distirct.

Cynthia Appleton – A three-term Warsaw, Appleton has first-hand experience with the impact of Albany’s dysfunction at the local level, and is ready to clean up the capital.  She is running for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Senator Dale Volker.

Pam Mackesey – As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face, Pam Mackesey is determined to defeat six-year incumbent George Winner in the 53rd Senate District.

Carol Gordon – As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years.  Now she is challenging twelve-year incumbent Charle’s Fuschillo in the 8th Senate District.

Disclosure: I am the New York Senate Dems’ New Media Director.

In an effort to keep folks in the loop about important down-ballot races here in New York, I’m going to start posting weekly roundups of all the news related to New York State Senate (#NYSen10 on Twitter) candidates.  If you want to follow these daily, visit the New York Senate Dems blog, or subscribe to our RSS feed.

If we missed anything, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you’d like to donate to any of the Democratic challengers running this year, New York Senate Dems has set up an Act Blue page featuring all the challengers (no incumbents) who are registered on the site: Change Albany Now!–Mike

DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES

Empire State Pride Agenda endorsed 7 of our general election candidates.  Those who made the cut:

• Regina Calcaterra (challenger)
• Brian Foley (incumbent)
• Tony Avella (challenger)
• Mike Gianaris(challenger)
• Mike Kaplowitz (challenger)
• Didi Barrett (challenger)
• Dave Valesky (incumbent)

Mary Wilmot Challenges James Alesi on Mayoral Control.  Mayoral control of schools is a hot issue in Rochester.  Today, Democratic challenger Mary Wilmot took on her opponeent, James Alesi, for his hypocrisy on the issue and for failing Rochester’s school children.

Mike Kaplowitz signed all five of the major reform packages meant to clean up Albany yesterday, in an effort to fix state government and help New York’s economy. He signed all of them – the Pledge for Change, Call to Action, Enough Already NY, New NY Agenda and NY Uprising – at a news conference in Bailey Park in Somers. “I’m calling it a plan for reform. The stakes are high but the time is now,” said Kaplowitz.

Sen. Oppenheimer became the latest Democratic candidate to sign on to New York Uprising’s reform pledge yesterday. “New York Uprising has brought together the critical reforms needed in New York State, which I have long supported and sponsored. By securing commitments from candidates now, it is my hope that we will have the momentum to make these reforms a reality in 2011,” said Sen. Oppenheimer.

Newsday profiled this year’s Senate races on Long Island (subscription required).  Long Island is a competitive battleground in this year’s campaign to expand our majority in the senate. Mentioned as the most vulnerable Republicans were  34-year incumbent Ken LaValle, who is being challenged by Regina Calcaterra, and 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon, who is being challenged by Dave Mejias.

Speaking of Regina Calcaterra, she received a glowing write up in the local press.  T.J. Clemente, lauded her as a “young gifted fighter with energy and ideals.” He also added: “There are forces at work when she speaks. Every word about this election seems to bring up a passion seen only in individuals with a singularity of purpose.”

Susan Savage stood  with nurses in demanding fair contract – Savage, running against 34-year Republican incumbent Hugh Farley,  walked a picket line with nurses in her district who are seeking a new contract. The nurses are asking for, and have so far been denied, a combination of fair wages, health care benefits, and nursing ratios.

Democratic incumbent Craig Johnson received the support of Mayor Michael Bloomberg  –  Mayor Bloomberg is lending his name to a fundraiser next Monday to support Sen. Johnson.  Mayor Bloomberg had pledged to help legislators who lead on issues of great importance to him. Charter schools are such an issue for the Mayor, and Sen. Johnson has been a fierce proponent of charter schools at the state level.  This is a departure for Bloomberg, who is typically one of the NY SRCC’s largest donors.

David Carlucci received a major endorsement from Congressman Eliot Engel, who said: “David Carlucci and I have worked together for years, and because of that relationship, I know firsthand that he is the right person to represent the people of his district in the State Senate.  David has demonstrated his commitment to making government work for the people as Town Clerk of Clarkstown.”

Michael Steele and RNC decided to dumping cash in Didi Barret’s district. Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland. The  national GOP has recently announced it will be funneling cash for local elections directly to county leaders in New York. One of the first areas to receive RNC dollars will be Dutchess county, which includes 80% of SD-41, where Barrett is running against Republican Stephen Saland.

REPUBLICANS

In an  extensive look inside the NY SRCC, The Capitol described a “shoe-string operation” defined by disarray and despair.  Just a few of the myriad of problems for the Senate GOP that the piece identified: special-interest money that once flowed has dried to a trickle, old allies have fled , and the Independence Party (which strongly backed Senate Republicans both with its ballot line and financial resources in 2008) has undergone a fundamental shift in philosophy and will support Senate candidates from both sides of the aisle this year.

The New York Observer questioned SRCC chair Tom Libous’ ties to political turncoat Carl Paladino, calling it “somewhat odd that Libous would appear alongside [Carl] Paladino, since Rick Lazio is now the GOP’s gubernatorial designee, and Paladino is threatening to run on a third party line.”

In the GOP primary to decide who will challenge Democratic incumbent Dave Valesky, home-town favorite Danny Liedka looks to get shut out by SRCC-backed concert pianist Andrew Russo (yes, you read that right).  According to the Auburn Pub, Liedka raised $48k and has just $5k cash-on-hand. Russo is reported to have raised 4 times that number.

Greg Ball, Tea Party candidate and potential opponent to Mike Kaplowitz for the 40th SD seat vacated by Vincent Leibell was accused of groping a waitress during “a rowdy night at an Albany bar.”

As we rapidly approach the July 15th filing deadline here in New York, the biggest hurdle I find for our candidates is that not enough of New York’s voters and activists know who they are, the dynamics of the race, or how great a chance we have in 2010 to pick up more seats and secure our fragile majority in the State Senate.  

Despite all the attention lavished on Cuomo, the AG race, or the budget, the State Senate looks to be where the action is in New York politics this year, and news for Democrats so far is good.  Voter registration is trending in our favor, poll after poll shows voter dissatisfaction is directed primarily at GOP incumbents, and a recent story in The Capitol revealed the state SRCC to be in disarray.

In short, this could be a very good year for Democratic challengers hoping to unseat Republican State Senators.

But to win in November, these candidates need resources.  They need volunteers to knock on doors and make phone calls, and money to hire staff, print lit, and cut ads.  Before any of that can be achieved though, politically engaged New Yorkers need to know who are candidates are, and why they are running.  

So I’ve compiled a list of 15 campaigns that the New York Senate Dems are supporting in 2010.  I hope the community will take the time to get to know these candidates, and if you like what you read, donate a few dollars before we hit the filing deadline (July 11 is the last day to give), or visit their websites and sign up for their email updates.  

I know many people are frustrated with Albany, but if we want to see progress – on ethics reform, marriage equality, green jobs and a host of other issues – the first step is expanding the Democratic majority and evicting Republican Senators standing in the way of progress.  The campaigns below could be the votes we need to push these issues through the chamber an onto the Governor’s desk.

NEW YORK SENATE DEMS CLASS OF 2010

Regina Calcaterra (Suffolk County) After growing up in Suffolk County in poverty and foster care with her four siblings, Regina Calcaterra worked hard to put herself through college and law school. As a corporate fraud lawyer, she successfully represented the pension funds of police, firefighters, and teachers, all of which suffered drastic losses due to Wall Street fraud.

While working for the NYC Comptroller, Regina strengthened the enforcement of labor laws, and advocated for laws that increased the assets of state pension funds and the city treasury while decreasing taxpayer contributions. She is a strong proponent of government reform and fiscal responsibility, including toughening of accounting standards throughout New York agencies and authorities, rescission of numerous taxes and fees, and fair share of government services for Eastern Long Island.

Her opponent is 34-year incumbent Ken LaValle.  The district (SD-1)has a Republican enrollment advantage, but it is rapidly trending Democratic and Democrats have done well up and down the ticket in recent elections.

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Dave Mejias (Nassau County)  David Mejias has dedicated his life to fighting for the people of Nassau County. In 2003, Mejias was elected to the Nassau County legislature where he voted for budgets that resulted in a no tax increases for residents and improved bond ratings for the county. He was reelected to the legislature in 2005, and in 2006 he ran for Congress against Peter King. Despite being defeated, Mejias gave Peter King the toughest challenge since King’s first election in 1992. As a life-long resident of Nassau County, Mejias understands that taxpayers on Long Island want an affordable place to call home and a government that works. As Senator, Mejias will continue his service to Nassau and bring a fresh, strong voice to Albany.

Dave’s opponent is 21-year incumbent Kemp Hannon. The district (SD-6) flipped from a GOP to Democratic registration advantage in 2009, though down-ballot Republicans still outperformed Democrats in recent years.

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Carol Gordon (Nassau, Suffolk Counties) As a Mental Health Clinic Manager and Patient Advocate at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Carol Gordon served our veterans for 25 years. In this role, Carol developed a strong commitment to American Veterans and initiated sustainable support programs, including championing an effort to have the first women veterans admitted to an all male unit. She was active on the Ethics, Family Council, and various veterans committees, and also served as manager of the Federal Women’s Program for 22 Years. In 2008, Carol became a member of the National Organization of Women and the Chairperson of the mentoring and education committee for Urban Financial Services Coalition of Long Island, an organization that promotes financial literacy.

Her opponent is 12-year incumbent Charles Fuschillo, and the district (SD-8) recently shifted from a GOP enrollment advantage to a slim Democratic advantage.

George Sava (Nassau County) George Sava has recognized the need for real leadership in Nassau County. After years of inaction by Dean Skelos, Sava is running for Senate to reverse the decades of tax-hikes that have led Nassau County to be one of the most highly taxed counties in the country. While maintaining his private law practice, Sava served in the military for over nine years. He is a veteran of Operation Enduring Freedom, and in 2004 he was deployed to the Horn of Africa. A former Republican, Sava became disillusion with the GOP’s continual contradictions, tax-hikes and dysfunction. As a husband and the father of three young children residing in Woodmere, George is running for the families in Nassau County that are finding themselves priced out of Long Island.

His opponent is Republican Senate Minority Leader Dean Skelos.  Like other Western Long Island districts, SD-9 recently flipped from a GOP to Democratic enrollment advantage.

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Tony Avella (Queens County) Tony Avella has dedicated his life to fighting for middle-class families. In 2001, Tony won election to the New York City Council in the 19th District – Northeast Queens and was reelected with an overwhelming majority in both the 2003 and 2005 elections. As a member of the City Council, Tony refused the “lulu;” an unethical and additional taxpayer funded salary increase in return for loyalty to council leadership instead of taxpayers. Tony fought against and subsequently refused the 25% City Council pay raise, which he considered unethical.  In 2008, Tony ran in the Democratic Mayoral primary in New York City against Bill Thompson, who has since endorsed Tony’s run for state senate.  

Fed up with the pay-to-play status quo and political special interests that have consumed Albany, Tony’s reputation as a staunch reformist will help to bring real change to Albany. A strong advocate for more reform and transparency in government, Tony will fight to transform the State Senate so that it works for the people once again.

Tony’s opponent is 38-year incumbent Frank Padavan.  The district is heavily Democratic and Padavan held onto his seat by only a few hundred votes in 2008 against a underfunded Democratic opponent.

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Mike Kaplowitz (Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess Counties) Mike Kaplowitz is a Westchester County Legislator and small business owner with a history of political independence and a record of smart fiscal management. As a county legislator, he saved over $110 million dollars in wasteful spending, and helped preserve Westchester County’s AAA bond rating, saving the county millions more in higher interest costs. As a Senator, Mike Kaplowitz will work to help small businesses, create jobs, fight to put caps on property taxes and to restore and strengthen the STAR program.

Kaplowitz is running for an open seat being vacated by Republican Vincent Leibell (SD-40). The district has a Democratic enrollment advantage, and his most likely opponent will be Tea Party candidate Greg Ball.

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Didi Barrett (Dutchess, Columbia Counties) Didi Barrett, a citizen candidate, has been a leader in the not-for-profit community for more than two decades. She is a board member of the North East Dutchess Fund and the Millbrook Education Foundation; she was the founder of Girls Inc of New York and is spearheading the development of the new Dutchess Girls Collaborative. She has served on the boards of the NY Women’s Foundation, the Women’s Campaign Fund, NARAL-NY, Planned Parenthood NY and the American Folk Art Museum. For the last two years, she has been the coordinator for her town’s Community Day.

As a State Senator, Didi Barrett will use her skills as a creative problem solver to bring jobs to the 41st District and alleviate property tax burdens for all New Yorkers. She will work to reform Albany’s dysfunctional culture.

Her opponent is 20-year incumbent Steve Saland.  The district (SD-41) has a Democratic enrollment advantage, but down ballot results have been mixed in recent elections.

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Joanne Yepsen (Saratoga, Rensselaer Counties) A Saratoga County Supervisor, Yepsen has helped keep Saratoga the lowest taxed county in the state of New York. She is committed to a zero-tolerance policy for party politics that get in the way of open, honest, efficient government. She has been re-elected County Supervisor three times on a proven record of integrity that focuses on the issues and needs of the individuals, families and businesses she represents.

Her opponent is Joe Bruno’s hand-picked successor in a district with the largest share of independent voters in the state.

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Susan Savage (Schenectady, Montgomery, Fulton, Saratoga Counties) Since she became Schenectady County Legislative Chair, Susan Savage restructured and streamlined county economic development. She helped bring $400 million and created 3300 jobs. Her efforts have led to a revitalized downtown Schenectady and expanded suburban industrial parks in Rotterdam and Glenville. Savage’s new perspective also fostered cooperation between county and local government, saving taxpayer money. Her approach and success have resulted in a resurgent economy that is a model in upstate New York. Now, Savage is ready to bring her new perspective and new ideas to Albany.

Her opponent is 34-year incumbent Hugh Farley, and the district (SD-44) has a shrinking Republican enrollment advantage.

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Kathleen Joy (Onondaga County) As Syracuse Common Counsel-At-Large and Majority Leader Kathleen Joy has a history of working across the aisle to get things done for her community is challenging.  As a Councilor, she has sponsored legislation to promote green infrastructure, building standards and open space, and she also initiated many of the housing programs embraced by the Syracuse City Administration and adopted by the Common Council.  In addition to her civic work, Joy is a real estate attorney and small business owner who has helped many first time homeowners fulfill their dreams of home ownership.

Her opponent is 18-year incumbent and self-described “GOP Pitbull” John DeFrancisco.  Democratic and GOP enrollment in the district (SD-50)is at parity, and Democrats have edged out some down-ballot wins in recent years.

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Pamela Mackesey (Streuben, Yates, Schuyler, Chemung, Tompkins Counties) Pam Mackesey is running for State Senate because she is fed up with high taxes, continual budget deficits, and the dysfunction in Albany. As a union organizer, she witnessed first-hand the struggles that everyday Shuyler, Steuben, and Chemung county residents face. As a single parent, she raised her daughter while working two, sometimes three jobs. Serving on Ithaca’s Common Council for 6 years and currently fulfilling her second term on the Tompkins County Legislature, Pam is prepared to go to Albany to work hard for her constituents and change the way business is done.

Her opponent is six-year incumbent George Winner.  The District (SD-53) has a sizeable Republican enrollment advantage.

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Mary Wilmot (Monroe County) Mary Wilmot is a life-long resident of Monroe County who brings a strong family background of service to District 55. As Regional Director for the Governor and the New York State Senate, Wilmot has extensive knowledge of the challenges Upstate New York faces. Drawing on her experience in this role, she understands the need to rein in excessive government spending and high taxes in order to preserve our local economies. As a mother and working parent, Wilmot is also committed to revitalizing our upstate community job markets. Mary will bring her passion for the environment to the Senate, championing investment in clean energy alternatives and energy conservation that will bring new industries to New York and create good jobs in Monroe County.

Her opponent is 14-year incumbent James Alesi.  The district (SD-55)has a slim Democratic enrollment advantage and Democrats have generally won up and down the ballot in recent years.

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Robin Wilt (Monroe County) Robin Wilt brings a long-standing commitment to progressive causes to Monroe County. As community activist, real estate agent, and small business owner, Wilt has seen first-hand the economic challenges facing Monroe County. In 2008, Robin co-founded the Genesee Valley chapter of Progressive Democrats of America, a grassroots organization dedicated to working inside and outside the Democratic Party to advance progressive causes. As Senator, she will work tirelessly for the people of Monroe and champion a return to good government, good jobs and good leadership.

Her opponent is seven-year incumbent Joe Robach.

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Cynthia Appleton (Erie, Wyoming, Livingston, Ontario Counties)  Cynthia Appleton is a long-time community leader who is now stepping up to help us in Albany. She has spent 35 years in health care, the last 24 years as a critical care nurse. A lifelong resident of Wyoming County, her family roots in dairy farming and small business in western New York go back over a century. Now in her third term as a Village Trustee in Warsaw, Appleton has the experience to understand the impact Albany has on the local level and what needs to be done. A wife and mom, Appleton is also an award-winning director and actor in local theater and a member of Warsaw Grange 1088, the Warsaw Chamber of Commerce, and many other groups.

Cynthia is running for the seat being vacated by retiring GOP Senator Dale Volker.

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Marc Coppola (Erie, Genesee Counties)  As a former State Senator in the 60th District, and former Majority Leader of the Common Council of the City of Buffalo, Marc Coppola brings a wealth of legislative experience to his campaign. As Majority Leader of the Common Council, he made tough decisions and cut the council budget by 33%. His campaign for State Senate is a direct response to Senator Ranzenhofer’s failure to look beyond partisanship and work to address the economic challenges facing New York, and the needs of residents of Erie and Genesee Counties.

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Disclosure – I am the New Media Director for the New York Senate Dems.

      The Alabama legislature has been known to be one of the conservative legislatures in the nation. The democrats have maintained control of both chambers continuously for over a century. That said while these democrats tend to be pretty conservative they still tend to be more populist and left leaning on certain economic issues compared to their Republican counterparts. For a state that has only voted for one democratic president(Carter) in the last 50 years, it is amazing to see the local level under so much democratic control

   It looks like it will be real battle to hold both of these chambers this year. For the longest time I thought it was a miracle that this legislature has remained in democratic hands for so long. That was until I noticed  that 60% of the democrats were first  elected over 15 years ago some as much 30 years ago in the senate. The house is slightly better with only 40% of the dems first elected over 15 years ago.

    The senate right now is barely on the Dem turf. A couple years ago back in 2007, when there were more dems in the chamber, there was a coalition of Republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect leadership that would be more favorable to Republican Gov. Riley. The coalition was barely defeated 18-17! But it showed that democrats could still muster an offensive against the republicans even in a state like Alabama. This was a decisive win for the interesting power play that had been going on in the state. The lieutenant governor serves as the president of the senate. When a republican was elected to this position the Democrats in the senate moved to transfer most of that power to their Senate president Pro-temp(who was elected by their caucus).

    In the following 2008 elections (plus the special elections) Republicans continued to eat away at the Dem majority in the senate. But Jim Folsom Jr., a democrat, was elected to the position of lieutenant governor. The democrats in the senate then tried to restore much of the power back to the Lieutenant Governor (I don’t know if they were successful).The move made sense as I’m sure there enough republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect a leadership more favorable to Governor Riley this time around.

Democrats chances of holding  the senate look bleak when you look at the numbers. Dems control the chamber 20-15.  A mere 3 seats are all it takes to switch control.  That’s not to say that the Dems can’t pick up seats.  Parker Griffith for example won seat by defeating an incumbent Republican 66-34 which was an impressive result in the south( Where Dems tend to bleed more seats than win them; on top of the fact that the few seats we win, tend to be open/or have an incumbent immersed in a scandal). Griffith then resigned t o run for congress and his senate seat reverted back to republican just as his affiliation would later in the house). There seems to be a theme of a popular conservative Dems  winning against republicans only to make the switch later down the road. The same thing happened with Dick Shelby( who was the last democrat to defeat a sitting republican senator). It will really come down to which incumbent democrats chose retire and the year they were first elected. The more recent they incumbent was first elected (such as mid 2000’s) the better the chance we can hold these seats.

   The state house looks slightly more favorable to hold. Looking at the numbers the Dems control the chamber with a 60-45 advantage. It takes 8 seat pick-up for the Republicans to win control of this chamber.  There are quite a few open seats for Democrats to defend including the current Speaker who was elected in the late 1970s.  The Tennessee state house also had similar margin of control prior to the 2008 election. So nothing can be taken for granted. This chamber is as most pundits have said tossup at best.

    Now why do I feel this chamber is important to control? Well mainly because the Alabama dems in the legislatures are the only thing standing between governor Riley/the republican party from having the trifecta in this state. These races along with the open governor’s race are what control the redistricting map for the next 10 years. If Bobby Bright does survive his tough race this year his next race will ultimately depend which party is in power in this state.

It ‘s only a matter of time when the republicans take over both chambers as many of the Dem legislators who were first elected in the 1970s finally retire (much like the NY Senate in reverse). A lot on who controls the chambers will depend on how well Ron sparks does in his governor’s race.  His coattails could be the difference between Republican controlled of the legislature and one controlled by the Democrats. Tensions have also been high in this chamber as just a couple years ago there was a little fist fight in the senate.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

This is my first real diary. Feel free to comment and let me know  if there are any discrepancies

Beltway political pundits are pointing to Scott Brown’s recent U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts as a sign that Republicans nationwide should be excited about their prospects in November.

You know what would be a terrific rebuke to that false logic: a progressive Democrat winning the historically Republican state senate seat that Scott Brown gave up upon his election to the U.S. Senate.  Turning the Scott Brown seat from dark red to bright, progressive blue would make a resounding statement with these political pundits and be a big victory for progressive change.

Dr. Peter Smulowitz is that progressive Democrat!

Dr. Smulowitz is a health care expert and progressive Democrat, very much in the proud, progressive tradition of Dr. Howard Dean.  He will bring to Massachusetts government innovative ideas on reducing health care costs while focusing on primary and preventative care – ideas that can be duplicated in states across America.  Dr. Smulowitz will fight for economic growth and job creation, particularly by easing the tax burden on small businesses and promoting investment in green industries.  He will fight to make government more transparent and responsive to its citizens.  And he will always fight for civil rights and privacy rights, including protecting marriage equality for same-sex couples and reproductive rights for women.

The primary in the special election to fill Brown’s old state senate seat is in just a few weeks, on Tuesday, April 13.  Dr. Smulowitz needs your help in the Democratic primary to make sure that a Howard Dean progressive can succeed the conservative Scott Brown.  Dr. Smulowitz has a primary challenger, a hack in the state legislature who was formerly a member of the state House leadership under two consecutive House Speakers, Tom Finneran and Sal DiMasi, who both eventually became convicted felons and who both represent what is wrong with Massachusetts state government.  This hack’s ties to the convicted felon former Speakers make her completely unelectable in a general election.

On the other hand, Dr. Smulowitz can help champion progressive change by winning conservative Republican Scott Brown’s old State Senate seat.  But we need your help in the progressive blogosphere!

Please join our fight to help a progressive Democrat, rather than an establishment hack, win the primary and have the opportunity to turn the Scott Brown seat blue.  Please make a contribution today via ActBlue!

The pundit class thinks that Senator Ted Kennedy’s seat going to Scott Brown is a big, bad omen of what is to come for Democrats in November.  Electing a Howard Dean Democrat, Dr. Peter Smulowitz, to succeed Scott Brown would turn that omen on its ear and send a poweful message of its own.  Please join our fight!

On the web:

*Dr. Peter Smulowitz for State Senate campaign website

*Contribute to Dr. Smulowitz’s campaign via ActBlue

*Become a fan of Dr. Smulowitz on Facebook

*Follow Dr. Smulowitz on Twitter

That the Northeast has been trending blue in recent cycles is self evidently true. Will it continue in 2010?

Below the fold for all the details and hey go check out the 2010 Race Tracker Wiki over at Open Congress for all your House, Senate and Gubernatorial needs.

(Cross posted at Daily Kos, MyDD and Open Left)

Whilst current polls don’t look too good for incumbent Democrats across the Northeast I believe that we have hit the bottom. Now that Health Care reform is done I believe that the polls will rebound for Democrats, particularly in the Northeast.

Thus it is my contention that despite the current challenging environment the Northeast will continue its long term move towards the Democratic Party, despite a sure to be spiteful debate on cap and trade and despite an economic outlook that is improving in fits and starts.

The US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 5/9

US Senators: 15/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 69/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying anything about it.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Jodi Rell not running again it is very likely to be a Dem pickup.

US Senate – Both Dems. If Dodd runs he may lose for any other Dem it is a safe hold.

US House – All Dem, all Safe (including Himes in the 4th.)

State Senate – 24D/12R – Safe

State House – 114D/37R – Safe

Maine

Gubernatorial – Whilst it seems that half of Maine is running for the open Gubernatorial mansion I believe that the Democratic nature of the state will lead to a Democratic retention.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 20D/15R – Safe (Margin is growing).

State House – 95D/55R – Safe

Massachusetts –

Gubernatorial – Whilst Deval Patrick really hasn’t set the world on fire the 2nd tier nature of his potential opponents should see him safely re-elected.

US Senate – Both Dems (at least after the upcoming special election.)

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R – Safe

State House – 144D/16R – Safe

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – Safe Dem

US Senate – definitely a race to watch. I will be stunned if Hodes loses here. Hodes has almost $1 million dollars COH and there is a divisive GOP primary in the offing also. New Hampshire, whilst less Blue than almost all of the other states in the North East, is not going to elect a Republican as US Senator in 2010.

US House –

NH-01 – There has been a lot of focus on both of the New Hampshire congressional races. I don’t get it to be honest – Shea Porter will win, not by much but she will win.

NH-02 – Again a lot of focus here including a lot of hand wringing about how vulnerable it is to switch. Not gonna happen folks. Gore, Kerry and Obama all won this district – Obama by 13 points – and we have a quality field of candidates  running AND a divisive GOP Primary. Lead Dem Ann McLane Kuster has 250K COH as at the end of September.

State Senate – 14/10 – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains. If this one flips it will be a bad night for us.

State House – 223D/176R – Safe

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – Repub – Not on ballot in 2010

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that Obama won 54/45 and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004.

NJ-03 – Adler is safe.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and Obama lost 47/52 so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Unlikely to be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – This district is winnable particularly with a freshman GOP incumbent. Obama carried it 51/48 also. Surprising then that there is no declared Dem candidate yet. Potentially a top tier race that will probably be a big miss for the DCCC.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2011

New York

Gubernatorial – Safe for Cuomo.

US Senate – Gillibrand will get over the line against 3rd tier opponents and Schumer is Safe too.

US House –

NY-03 – Unless Suozzi or another top tier candidate emerges then this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-13 – McMahon is safe.

NY-20 – Murphy will prevail – bet on it. He had almost 1 Mill COH at the end of September!

NY-23 – One of two really competitive races in Dem held districts in NY. I think Owens will prevail, especially against Hoffman.

NY-24 – After a scare in 2008 Arcuri will be safe.

NY-25 – Maffei is safe.

NY-26 – Unless a good candidate pops up this will be a big miss for the DCCC.

NY-29 – Massa has his work cut out for him – that’s for sure. But for me Massa by a nose. Why? When was the last time the NY GOP won a District off us? Massa’s 500K COH as at end of September will help too.

State Senate – 32D/30R – A chamber to watch – big time. I expect us to hang onto or increase our majority.

State House – 109D/41R – Safe

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – A real worry this one could flip.

US Senate – 2 Dems – Whoever emerges from the Dem primary will beat Toomey. The good folk of Pennsylvania wouldn’t be crazy enough to sent Toomey to the US Senate would they?

US House –

PA-03 – Dahlkemper will have her work cut out to win this District that Obama JUST lost. Race to watch.

PA-04 – Altmire will be safe.

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – Generic Dem beats generic Rep – Period. Doug Pike’s massive COH advantage (largely self funded) of 750K as at end of September should help him pull this one out.  

PA-07 – Not quite sure why so many people are predicting this will flip. Top tier candidates for both parties makes for a tough race but this district was won by Gore, Kerry and Obama. Add in a competitive GOP Primary and it is Dem for me.

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-11 – Against Lou Barletta Kanjorski will be fine. Tough part of Pennsylvania for Democrats though.

PA-12 – Murtha is vulnerable but i expect him to survive (just).

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Dem Callahan is a top tier challenger and is fundraising like one (325K COH as at end of Spetember).

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010, unless Todd Platts lands the Government job he is chasing. Even then unlikely to be competitive.

State Senate – 20D/30R – Safe GOP

State House – 104D/99R – Definitely a chamber to watch.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited so either a Dem or former Repub Sen now Indy Lincoln Chaffee will be elected. The GOP bench here is terrible.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 35D/5R Safe

State House – 69D/6R Safe

Vermont

Gubernatorial – With GOP Gov Douglas not running the GOP have scored their best possible candidate in Lt Gov Brian Dubie; who will lose to a Dem (unless the Progressive Party act as a spoiler).

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – All Dem, all Safe

State Senate – 28D/7R Safe

State House – 95D/48R Safe

So with 10 months until election day it is off to the races!

What do you think?

The North Carolina State Senate will see considerable turnover in the Democratic Leadership by the end of 2010. Democrats currently hold a 30-20 majority, and have controlled the Senate Chamber since the 1870s. All members face re-election every 2 years.

3 Democrats have announced they will not run in 2010, and Majority Leader Tony Rand resigned today to accept a new position in state government. The retirements include 3 (now 4) of the 5 most senior Democrats in the Senate.

1/17 Update – Another retirement announced – Sen Charlie Albertson will not run in 2010.

Majority Leader Tony Rand has resigned after 27 years to accept Governor Bev Perdue’s appointment as Chair of the State Parole Commission. Gov Perdue will appoint Rand’s replacement.

http://www.fayobserver.com/Art…

Sen David Hoyle, co-chair of the Senate Finance Committee, has announced he will not run for re-election in 2010 after serving for 18 years in the State Senate.

http://jackbetts.blogspot.com/…

Sen Julia Boseman has announced she won’t seek a 4th term in 2010. Boseman is NC’s only openly gay or lesbian legislator.

http://www.starnewsonline.com/…

Sen RC Soles, Chairman of the Commerce Committee and NC’s longest serving State Senator, has announced he will not run for re-election in 2010. Soles was first elected to the Legislature in 1968, serving 40 years. Soles shot and wounded an intruder in his home earlier this year, and may face charges.

http://www.wral.com/news/state…

The seats held by Hoyle, Boseman, and Soles were all considered competitive in 2008.

http://www.wral.com/news/local…

1/17 update: Sen Charlie Albertson announced Friday he will not run for re-election in 2010. His district #10 is a D +3 district. Albertson has served in the legislature for 20 years. He is the 3rd most senior Democrat in the Senate.

http://www.wral.com/news/local…

We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year.  If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says “Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats” next year.  To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats.  Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982.  Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district.  I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.  

Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a “High Water Mark” here.  Note that I didn’t calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days.  They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.

I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources.  I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders.  Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup.  The Senator’s name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.

I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don’t want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.

Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.

District 1– Hansen Clarke (D) OPEN Easten Detroit; Downtown

Hansen Clarke (AKA “The man who kicked Ann Coulter’s Ass”) is term limited next year.  It’s a shame, because Clark has been one of my favorite Senators, and even one of my favorite politicians.  He recently donated his hair to a nine year old burn victim http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/dp… and is a tireless advocate for under-represented and underpriveledged Americans.  

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Coleman Young II (D), State Rep. (2006- ) 2009 Candidate for Detroit Mayor

Fred Durhal, Jr. (D)  State Rep. (2002-2003, 2008-  )

Betty Cook Scott (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 2 Martha G. Scott (D) OPEN North Detroit, Hamtrack, Grosse Cities.  

Martha Scott, who was one of Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick’s 2008 primary challengers, is term limited.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

LaMar Lemmons (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bill McConico (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2006 Candidate

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Bert Johnson (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 3 Irma Clark-Coleman (D) OPEN Central Detroit, Dearborn

This district includes Dearborn, so there is the potential for this district to elect an Arab-American to the Senate.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Morris Hood, Jr. State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 4 Buzz Thomas (D) OPEN North and Central Detroit

Another very good legislator who is term limited this year, although I’m keeping my fingers crossed that John Conyers will retire so that Thomas can replace him in Congress.

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

George Cushingberry (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Virgil Smith (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Keith Williams (D) Wayne County Commission (2003-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 5 Tupac Hunter (D) West Detroit, Dearborn Heights, Inkster

Hunter will be fine in this majority black district, however term limited State Rep. Gabe Leland may challenge Hunter.  Leland’s father, Burt, represented this district prior to Hunter for decades.  

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 6 Glenn Anderson (D) Livonia, Westland, Redford, Garden City

Senator Anderson won this historically Republican suburban Wayne County district in 2006, defeating Republican Sen. Laura Toy.  He is favored to win re election, but former Rep. John Pastor (R) of Livonia could make it competitive.

Presidential Results: 57.8 – 40.4 Obama

Rating: Likely Democrat

District 7 Bruce Patterson (R) OPEN Canton, Northville, Plymouth, Trenton

Republican Pruce Patterson barely held on in 2006 against Democrat Mark Slavens in 2006 in this L-shaped suburban Wayne County district.  Democrats now hold every State House District that is wholly or partially in this district.  Mark Slaven’s wife Dian won the last remaining Republican held district last year, and Obama won this district comfortably.  This district will be one of the most competitive and expensive districts in the state.  If Democrats want to retake the Senate, this is a district that they almost have to win.  Former Republican-turned Democrat State Representative John Stewart, who served was an R while serving in the State House from 2000-2006 and who switched parties in 2007, is running.  The fact that he represented a 3rd of this district, and was a Republican, makes him a top tier candidate. h/t Sean Fitzpatrick

Presidential Results: 54.7 – 43.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

John Stewart (D) Former Republican State Rep. (2000-2006) bin/cfr/com_det.cgi?com_id=514363

Potential Candidates:

Marc Corriveau (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Kathleen Law (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Mark Slavens (D) 2006 Candidate

Phillip LaJoy (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 8 Ray Basham (D) OPEN

Romulus, Taylor, Lincoln Park, Allen Park, Riverview, Wyandotte

The Democrat will be strongly favored in this suburban Wayne County district that is located south of Detroit.

Presidential Results: 64.6 – 33.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Hoon Yung-Hopgood (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Barbarah Farrah (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Ed Clemente (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Safe Dem

District 9 Dennis Olshove (D) OPEN  Warren, Eastpointe, Fraser, St. Clair Shores

This district is Democratic but mostly socially conservative one located in southern Macomb County.  It is, along with the 10th District, the home of the “Reagan Democrats,” who also voted strongly for Obama.  The Democrat is favored here.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 39.6 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates: Lisa Wojno (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Frank Accavitti (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Jack Brandenburg (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Dem

District 10 Mickey Switalksi (D) OPEN

Sterling Heights, Utica, Roseville, Clinton, Mount Clemens

Although slightly less Democratic than the 9th, this district still favors Democrats. And like the 9th, a conservative Democrat should have no problem winning this district.  Switalski announced earlier this year that he would challenge Rep. Sandy Levin in the 12th Congressional district.

Presidential Results: 55.5 – 42.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Bieda (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Fred Miller (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Tory Rocca (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 11 Alan Sanborn (R) OPEN

Northern Macomb County

This district is very conservative, but if nutjob crazy Leon Drolet gets the Republican nomination, a Democrat would have a chance here. Still, the Republican should be favored.

Presidential Results: 50.6 – 47.7 McCain

Announced Candidates: Leon Drolet

Potential Candidates:

Kim Meltzer (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Brian Palmer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 12 Mike Bishop (R) OPEN

Pontiac, Rochester, Auburn Hills, North East Oakland County

Majority leader Bishop is term limited in this swing district in Oakland County.  Although President Obama won this district, I’m not extremely optimistic about picking this one up because Obama’s margin of victory was almost entirely from majority black Pontiac, where turnout won’t be as high next year.

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 46.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Tim Melton (D) State Rep. (2006 –  )

Tom McMillan (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 13 John Pappageorge (R)

Royal Oak, Madison Heights, Berkley, Troy, Bloomfield, Birmingham

In 2006, State Rep. John Pappageorge beat Andy Levin (son of Sandy Levin) by less than 1,000 votes.  Many Democrats blamed Levin’s loss on Kyle McBee, the Green Party candidate who took 3,129 votes, more than 3 times Pappageorge’s margin of victory.  Democrats will challenge Pappageorge again, although it isn’t clear whether Levin will try again, or a State Representative like Marie Donigan will give it a shot.

Presidential Results: 53.7 – 44.8 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Levin (D) 2006 nominee

Marie Donigan (D) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Tossup

District 14 Gilda Jacobs (D) OPEN

Farmington Hills, Southfield, Huntington Woods, Oak Park, Ferndale

This district is probably the most liberal district in Michigan, although not the most Democratic.  Rep. Gilda Jacobs is term limited, and while the all three of the State Reps. in the district are freshmen, whoever wins the Dem nomination will win.

Presidential Results: 74.6 – 24.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Rep. Ellen Cogen Lipton (D) (2008-   )

David Coulter (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Helaine Zack (D) Oakland County Commission (2002-  )

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 15 Nancy Cassis (R) OPEN

Novi, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, Northville

I was shocked when I calculated the results for this district.  A decade ago, this was at least one of, if not the most Republican area in Michigan.  Western Oakland County being so Republican is the reason that we have Thad McCotter and Craig DeRoche, and yet this district voted for Barack Obama.  Even the city of Novi voted for him.  And better yet, he won by more than 3,000 votes!  Still, locally we have a while to go before a Democrat can represent Western Oakland County in the State Legislature.  I’m not very keen on this district as a possible pickup in ’10.

Presidential Results: 50.3 – 48.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Craig DeRoche (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

David Law (R) State Rep. (2004-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 16 Cameron Brown (R) OPEN, Lenawee, Branch, Hillsdale, and St. Joseph Counties

I doubt this district will be competitive, unless State Rep. Dudley Spade (D) runs, but even then a Republican like Bruce Caswell starts off with an advantage.

Presidential Results: 49.8 – 48.3 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Dudley Spade (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Bruce Caswell (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rick Schaffer (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Likely Republican

District 17 Randy Richardville (R) Monroe County, South Washtenaw, East Jackson

Not only the most gerrymandered, but also one of the most closely divided districts in Michigan, this one will likely be home to another competitive race in 2010.  The Washtenaw County portion of this district favors Dems, while the Jackson county portion favors Republicans and Monroe county is a swing region.  In fact, the Presidential results here are almost exactly what President Obama got nationwide, giving it a 2008 PVI of EVEN.  Unfortunately, our bench in this district isn’t the greatest, with our strongest possible candidate running for Secretary of State.  Still, State Rep. Kate Ebli might be able to beat Richardville.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Kate Ebli (D) State Rep. (2005-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 18 Liz Brater (D) Open Washtenaw County, Ann Arbor

One of the most Democratic districts in Michigan and the home of the University of Michigan.  The Democratic bench in this district is quite deep.  Any Democrat is safe here.

Presidential Results: 73.7 – 26.2 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Hieftje (D) Mayor of Ann Arbor

Rebekah Warren (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Pam Byrnes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Chris Kolb (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 19 VACANT (D)  Calhoun County (Battle Creek) and most of Jackson County

This is the Senate seat that Mark Schauer left vacant when he moved up to Congress last year.  It is usually a swing district, although President Obama won it with votes to spare.  Because this seat is vacant, there will be a special election to fill it later this year.  The Primary will be August 4th and the General on November 9th.

The Democratic candidates are State Rep. Martin Griffin of Jackson, and Sharon Reiner, who ran for congress in 2006 and 2008, narrowly losing to Tim Walberg and then losing badly in the primary to Mark Schauer.  Griffin is backed by the State Democratic Party and should win the Primary.  The Republican candidates are State Rep. Mike Nofs of Battle Creek and Sandstone Township Supervisor C. James Wellman.  Nofs, who is a moderate and popular in the Battle Creek area, should win the primary.  

The fact that 1. Nofs is very moderate 2. He’s very well known and liked in the Battle Creek area and 3. This will be a low turnout special election makes this a tough race for us.  Both parties with certainly spend a lot of money here.  Martin Griffin is from the Jackson area, which is an advantage, as Mark Schauer lost Jackson County in 2002 when he first ran for the State Senate.  If we lose this race it will make it that much more difficult to retake the Senate, so in some ways, whether or not Democrats can gain the trifecta and control redistricting depends on this race.

Presidential Results: 52.7 – 45.6 Obama

Candidates:  

Martin Griffin (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Sharon Reiner (D)

Mike Nofs (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

C. James Wellman (R) Sandstone Township Board Memeber

Rating: Tossup

District 20 Thomas George (R) OPEN Kalamazoo County, part of Van Buren County

Tom George, who is running for Governor, will be vacating the 2nd most Democratic seat currently held by a Republican, going by Obama’s winning percentage.  The Republican field is already starting to shape up, with former State Rep. Lawrence Wenke, who’s district included part of Western Kalamazoo County, and current State Rep. Tonya Schuitamaker are both running.  Schuitamaker’s base is Van Buren County, which she represents.  This district only includes two townships in Van Buren, so she would probably be at a disadvantage against Wenke in the primary.  Still, Republicans would do well to nominate someone from the city of Kalamazoo or it’s suburbs, and both Wenke and Schuitamaker are from the rural parts of the district.

Democrats have a few good potential candidates.  Former state Rep. and 2006 candidate Alex Lipsey, State Rep. Robert Jones, or Kalamazoo County Commission Chairman David Buskirk.

Presidential Results: 58.6 – 39.7 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Lawrence Wenke (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Tonya Schuitamaker (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Alex Lipsey (D) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Robert Jones (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

David Buskirk (D) Kalamazoo County Commissioner; Chairman

Rating: Tossup

District 21 Ron Jelinek (R) OPEN Berrien, Cass and Van Buren Counties

A historically Republican area, President Obama did very well here.  This area is home to a lot of moderate Republicans (Fred Upton is from this area), and Berrien County is home to a lot of African-Americans.  Democrats have a very weak bench here, so don’t expect a win here.

Presidential Results: 52.1 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Judy Truesdell (D) 2006 and 2008 Candidate for State House

John Proos (R) State Rep. (2002-   )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 22 Valde Garcia (R) OPEN Livingston, Shiawassee, and Southern Ingham Counties

Livingston County is one of the most Republican Counties in Michigan.  You can be sure that another conservative “family values” Republican will be elected to replace Senator Garcia.

Presidential Results: 52.4 – 45.8 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Joe Hune (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Chris Ward (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 23 Gretchen Whitmer (D) Ingham County (Lansing)

Gretchen Whitmer will be safe if she runs for re-election.  If she runs for Attorney General, as many expect her to, there is a strong bench of Democrats in the lansing area to take her place.

Presidential Results: 67.2 – 31.3 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 24 Patricia Birkholz (R) OPEN Allegan, Barry, and Eaton Counties

Although Eaton county showed an impressive swing towards President Obama, the rest of this district, especially heavily Dutch Allegan, is still strongly Republican.

Presidential Results: 50.5 – 47.6 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Brian Calley (R) State Rep. (2006-   )

Rick Jones (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Fulton Sheen (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Safe Republican

District 25 Judson Gilbert (R) OPEN Lapeer and St. Clair Counties

Lapeer and St. Clair Counties are mostly suburban/exurban areas north of Detroit.  There is also quite a bit of rural farmland and the medium sized city of Port Huron.  A democrat could win here, expecially moderate like John Espinoza, although he doesn’t actually live in the district.  The Republicans have a deep bench here, and I’m not sure whether or not the State Democratic party will decide to put money here.

Presidential Results: 49.2 – 48.6

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Phillip Pavlov (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Stahl (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 26 Deb Cherry (D) OPEN North and East Genesee County, Central Oakland County, Waterford

I don’t know why, but for some reason Republicans gave this suburban Flint area district an arm that reaches into central Oakland County, and they actually used touch-point contiguity to connect it to Waterford Township.  Maybe it was to make this district more Republican, although Waterford voted easily for Obama.  This district was held by Lt. Gov. John Cherry, and is now held by his sister, Deb.  It’s comfortably Democratic, but rising star, moderate African-American Republican Paul Scott could concievably give a Democrat a run for their money.

Presidential Results: 55.8 – 42.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Richard Hammel (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

Jim Slezak (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Ted Hammon (D) State Rep. (2006-2008)

Fran Amos (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Paul Scott (R) State Rep. (2008-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 27 John Gleason (D) Flint, South-West Genesee County

The other Genessee County District, this one is much more Democratic.  It includes the city of Flint and other very Democratic areas west of the city.  If Gleason primaries Dale Kildee, there is a big Democratic bench here.

Presidential Results: 68.8 – 29.7 Obama

Rating: Safe Democrat

District 28 Mark Jansen (R) Kent County, suburban Grand Rapids

The 28th District is very strangely shaped.  It skirts around the city of Grand Rapids but includes conservative suburbs like Wyoming.  Mark Jansen should have not trouble winning re-election.

Presidential Results: 55.9 – 42.5 McCain

Rating: Safe Republican

District 29 Bill Hardiman (R) OPEN Grand Rapids, Kentwood

This is another district that we almost must win if we want to retake the senate.  It is the most Democratic district currently held by a Republican, going by Barack Obama’s winning margin.  It is basically all of the city of Grand Rapids plus a few suburbs.  Both Republicans and Democrats have decent benches here, but Democrats have been making gains lately (we won a state house seat in 2006).  I think that at the end of the day, the Democrat will win this district.

Presidential Results: 59.1 – 39.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Michael Sak (D) State Rep. (2002-2008)

David LaGrand (D) Grand Rapids City Commissioner and 2006 Candidate

George Heartwell (D) Grand Rapids Mayor

Carol Hennessy (D) Minority Vice-Chair, Kent County Commission

Dave Hildenbrand (R) State Rep. (2004-  )

Glenn Steil (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Justin Amash (R) State Rep. (2008-   )

Jerry Kooiman (R) State Rep. (2000-2006)

Rating: Tossup

District 30 Wayne Kuipers (R) OPEN Ottawa County

This district is home to Ottawa County, one of the fastest growing and most Republican counties in Michigan.  Although, like with the South, as the population grows, so does the Democratic performance.  I’d estimate we may start winning this district by the 2020’s, but until then it will remain safely in Republican hands.

Presidential Results: 61.0 – 37.4 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

David Agema (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Arlan Meekhof (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Safe Republican

District 31 James Barcia (D) OPEN Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Bay, and Arenac Counties

Former Congressman James Barcia is term limited in this big district which includes the “Thumb” region and wraps around Saginaw Bay, including Bay City.  It’s relatively Democratic, although not overwhelmingly.  Democrats have a good bench, and State Rep. Jeff Mayes would be a big improvement over the moderate to conservative Barcia.

Presidential Results: 51.8 – 46.3 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Jeff Mayes (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Terry Brown (D) State Rep. (2006-  )

John Espinoza (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 32 Roger Kahn (R) Saginaw and Gratiot Counties

In 2006, Roger Kahn (AKA Kaaahn!!) won this seat by only 450 votes.  He’s had sort of a rough first term, alledgedly getting into a physical altercation with a 72 year old female Senator Irma Clark-Coleman (D) of Detroit.  The incident was so bizarre that I think that I should post here excerpts from Clark-Coleman’s letter to Majority leader Bishop:

I submit this letter as a formal complaint against the State Senator

from the 32nd District who is a menace to the state legislature. He

perpetrated petulant and violent behavior toward me following a Senate

Appropriation committee meeting yesterday afternoon in the Capitol

building. I ask that you sanction him for conduct unbecoming of an

elected official. I am fearful that given the opportunity, this

legislator would continue to use physical intimidation to reinforce his

policy positions.

He accosted me inside of the main elevator. He rushed at me as if he

were going to strike me in the face after I expressed my great

displeasure with the committee’s approval of the Senate substitute for

HB 4436, which decimates Wayne County’s and Detroit’s ability to provide

mental and medical treatment for poor and uninsured residents…

The Senator from Saginaw charged at me like a bull while we were both

confined in a 6 x 6 elevator. His hysterical behavior startled

citizens who like me were simply trying to leave the Capitol building.

Everyone looked on in horror until the good Senator from the 13th

District blocked his advance to my side of the elevator car.

As the doors opened on the ground floor, the Senator from Troy took me

by the elbow and escorted me out of harm’s way. Despite my exit, the

legislator from the 32nd District continued his verbal assault. His

bellowing startled the Kentwood Senator and the state Budget Director

who were conversing at the visitor’s desk. Both gentlemen looked up in

utter amazement.

Never, in my twelve years as a state legislator, seven years as a member

of the Detroit Board of Education, and thirty years as a Wayne County

employee have I been attacked for my policy positions. I commend Troy’s

best for his quick action to shield me from my aggressor who had lost

control of his temper and his ability to reason.

Senator Kahn denies this, although it’s pretty crazy if true.  That, plus the Democratic nature of this district means he should be in for a tough race next year.

Presidential Results: 56.9 – 41.5 Obama

Announced Challengers:

Potential Challengers:

Andy Colouris (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Carl Williams (D) State Rep. (2000-2006) and 2006 Candidate

Rating: Tossup

District 33 Alan Cropsey (R) OPEN Clinton, Montcalm, Isabella, and Ionia Counties

Cropsey, who has always been to conservative for his district, is term limited.  Based mostly on his strength in Isabella County (home to CMU), Barack Obama won this district.  We also picked up a State House seat within this district last year, and we will probably pick up another one next year.  Still, our bench is not very strong here.  Democratic turnout may not be a strong next year, either, so I’m cautious about this district.

Presidential Results: 50.7 – 47.4 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Mike Huckleberry (D) State Rep. (2008-  ), 2004 and 2006 candidate for Congress

Bill Caul (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Paul Opsommer (R) State Rep. (2006-  )

Rating: Leans Republican

District 34 Gerald VanWoerkom (R) OPEN Muskegon, Oceana, Newaygo, and Mason Counties

It’s difficult to tell this far out, but I think that if we win any seats next year, this is our best shot.  Moderate Muskegon Republican Gerald VanWoerkom is retiring, and the Republican candidate to replace him looks to be State Rep. Geoff Hansen, although former State Rep. David Farhat it “thinking about it.”

Either way, we start out with an advantage.  Unlike VanWoerkom, who represented Muskegon County in the House, Hansen hails from the rural Northern portion of the district.  David Farhat, on the other hand, represented the same district as VanWoerkom.  That is, until he was spanked in 2006 by Dem Mary Valentine (he lost 56-44).  Mary Valentine has announced that she is running. Her popularity in the more suburban and rural part of the district and the fact that Farhat is thought to be somewhat corrupt, and Hansen has no base in Muskegon tells me that this one looks like a pickup.

Presidential Results: 58.3 – 40.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Geoff Hansen (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

Potential Candidates:

Mary Valentine (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Doug Bennett (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

Julie Dennis (D) State Rep. (1998-2004) and 2006 Candidate

David Farhat (R) State Rep. (2002-2006)

Rating: Leans Democrat

District 35 Michelle McManus (R) OPEN Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, Kalkaska, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Lake, Osceola, Clare, and Mecosta Counties

I consider Michelle McManus to be Michigan’s version of Michelle Bachmann.  She’s crazy, loud, and extremely conservative.  Luckily, she’s term limited.  Unluckily, she’s running for Secretary of State.  I doubt, however, that she’ll make it out of the Primary.  Obama won her district, and we picked up a State House seat, but our bench is weak in the North-Western Lower Peninsula area.  

Presidential Results: 49.3 – 49.0 Obama

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Darwin Booher (R) State Rep. (2004-   )

David Palsrok (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 36 Tony Stamas (R) OPEN Alpena, Alcona, Iosco, Ogemaw, Midland, Gladwin, Crawford, Montmorency, Oscoda, and Otsego Counties

Although Republican leaning nationally, this is a swing district in local in statewide races.  The southernmost county, Midland, favors Republicans.  In fact, the Republicans intetionally drew the Democratic northern Counties, especially Alpena, with Midland to create a Republican district.  In 2002, Alpena Democrat Andy Neumann ran against Midland Republican Tony Stamas, with Stamas prevailing narrowly.  Stamas in now term limited and Neumann, who is a State Representative, is “Strongly Leaning Towards running,” also likely to run is State Rep. Joel Sheltrown (D), who is more moderate than Neumann, and also not from the Alpena area, but Iosco County in the center of the district.  I think that Sheltrown would be a stronger candidate, but the primary will be nasty.  The Republican candidate will probably be former State Rep. John Moolenaar of Midland.

Presidential Results: 49.9 – 48.1 McCain

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Andy Neumann (D) State Rep. (1998-2002, 2008-   )

Joel Sheltrown (D) State Rep. (2004-  )

John Moolenaar (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Tossup

District 37 Jason Allen (R) OPEN Grand Traverse, Antrim, Charlevoix, Emmett, Cheboygan, Presque Isle, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties

This is the most Republican Northern Michigan District.  I starts at Traverse City, then jumps the Straits of Mackinac and takes in Mackinac and Chippewa Counties in the U.P., including Sault Ste. Marie.  The Traverse City area has quite a few Republicans to replace Senator Allen, but Emmett, Mackinac, and Chippewa Counties, also a Republican area, are represented by State Rep. Gary McDowell (D).  McDowell is term limited and I could concievably see him winning this district, although it would be an uphill climb.

Presidential Results: 50.8 – 47.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Gary McDowell (D) State Rep. (2004-   )

Howard Walker (R) State Rep. (2002-2008)

Rating: Leans Republican

District 38 Mike Prusi (D) OPEN Keweenaw, Houghton, Ontonagon, Gogebic, Baraga, Iron, Dickinson, Marquette, Menominee, Delta, Alger, Schoolcraft, and Luce Counties.

My home district! I’ll be sad to see Prusi go, but it’s more important that we get a progressive Dem like him to take his place.  The Democratic bench is deep, the Republican one, not so much.  The Presidential results are a bit misleading, as the Democratic baseline here is far higher than President Obama’s total (which was still a comfortable win).  The most likely candidate is probably former State Rep. Tom Casperson, although the spanking he received at the Hands of Bart Stupak last year make keep him out of politics forever.  If he doesn’t run, it’s likely Dem.  If he does, it’s leans Dem.  Democrats hold every house seat in this district, and other than Casperson, we have for years, so we’ve got a very strong bench.  The two progressive Dems, Steve Lindberg and fmr. Rep. Steve Adamini are from Marquette, while the more conservative Reps are Mike Lahti of Houghton County and Judy Nerat of Menominee County.  

Presidential Results: 52.5 – 45.5

Announced Candidates:

Potential Candidates:

Steve Lindberg (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Mike Lahti (D) State Rep. (2006-   )

Steve Adamini (D) State Rep. (2000-2006), 2008 Candidate for Marquette County Prosecutor, Northern Michigan University Board of Trustees

Judy Nerat (D) State Rep. (2008-   )

Tom Casperson (R) State Rep. (2002-2008) and 2008 Candidate for Congress

Joel Westrom (R) First District GOP chairman and 2006 Candidate for State House

Rating: Leans Democrat

And for those who skipped some of that, here’s my summary.  Republican seats are bold and italic

Safe Democrat Seats

District 1 (OPEN)

District 2 (OPEN)

District 3 (OPEN)

District 4 (OPEN)

District 5 Hunter

District 8 (OPEN)

District 14 (OPEN)

District 23 (OPEN)

District 27 Gleason

Likely Democrat Seats

District 6 Anderson

District 9 (OPEN)

Leans Democrat Seats

District 10 (OPEN)

District 26 (OPEN)

District 31 (OPEN)

District 34 (OPEN)

District 38 (OPEN)

Tossup Seats

District 7 (OPEN)

District 13 Pappageorge

District 19 VACANT

District 20 (OPEN)

District 29 (OPEN)

District 32 Kahn

District 36 (OPEN)

Lean Republican Seats

District 12 (OPEN)

District 17 Richardville

District 21 (OPEN)

District 25 (OPEN)

District 33 (OPEN)

District 35 (OPEN)

District 37 (OPEN)

Likely Republican Seats

District 11 (OPEN)

District 15 (OPEN)

District 16 (OPEN)

Safe Republican Seats

District 22 (OPEN)

District 24 (OPEN)

District 28 Jansen

District 30 (OPEN)

We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.

That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!

But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast……..

Just to avoid any debate, (and because I got it wrong last time I tried this) the US Census defines the Northeast region as including 9 states as follows: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And aggregating across all 9 states the lay of the land looks like this:

States that voted for Obama: 9/9

Governors: 6/9

US Senators: 14/18 (Counting Sanders and Leiberman as Dems)

House Districts: 68/83

State Senates: 8/9

State Houses: 9/9

Where I think a race is a safe Democratic hold I won’t be saying much about it such as all of our Northeast US Senators and US House races on the ballot in 2010.

Going state by state then:

Connecticut

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Jodi Rell is quite popular and will likely be looking for a 3rd term. OTOH the Dem bench is VERY deep and a top tier challenger should be able to be found. Problem is who would want to take on such a popular pol?

US Senate – Both Dems (Hey Lieberman isn’t up for re-election in 2010 Dodd is.)

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on CT-04

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Maine

Gubernatorial – Dem John Baldacci probably won’t run again which on balance makes this gubernatorial chamber an easier hold for us than otherwise. The only possible exception to this is if either of the GOP US Senators run – a highly unlikely thing to happen.

US Senate – Both Repubs! Not on ballot in 2010

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – We actually added to our margin here in 2008 moving it from 18/17 to 20/15 and yep they are all up again in 2010. A chamber to watch but we should be ok in this increasingly reliable state.

State House – zzzzzzzzzz

Massachusetts – aka nothing to see here move right along!

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

US Senate – Both Dems zzzzzzzzzzzz

US House – ALL OURS BABY! zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzzz

New Hampshire

Gubernatorial – If Dem Gov Lynch runs he will win. If, as I hope, Lynch runs for the Senate then look for 2nd CD Rep Hodes to run and win for team Blue instead. My how New Hampshire has quickly shifted to us.

US Senate – 1 Dem 1 Rep and the Rep is on the ballot – Judd Gregg. Gregg has a target on his back already and I expect either Gov Lynch or Rep Hodes to run and for this one to be a barn burner.

US House – ALL OURS BABY! – Keep an eye on NH-01

State Senate – No change in 2008 really locks in our 2006 gains.

State House – Nothing really to see here we held onto almost all of our 2006 gains, dropping from 231 to 225 out of 400 we will hang onto this one in 2010 IMHO.

New Jersey

Gubernatorial – On ballot in 2009 (Go Corzine). Any Dem would be favoured to win this one as NJ residents hate all their pols they just hate Democrats less than Republicans.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House –

NJ-02 – If State Senator Jeff Van Drew finally steps up and runs this race becomes very competitive. Hopefully he won’t wait until 2012. If State Sen Jim Whelan runs it could also get competitive in this district that I suspect Obama won and that Bush won by less than 1% in 2004. Will have a Cook Dem PVI.

NJ-04 – Gore carried this district and I think Obama only just fell short so a good candidate here is a must to get it on the radar instead of the second tier candidates we have run thus far.

NJ-05 – Gee I hope 2008 Dem candidate Dennis Shulman runs again in 2010. Holding a GOP incumbent to 56% in this reasonably strong GOP district is a fair effort. Otherwise this one won’t be on the radar in 2010.

NJ-07 – I don’t know what happened here this year but a top tier candidate who is NOT Linda Stender is required. This district is winnable particulalrly with a freshman GOP incumbent. I think Obama carried it also.

NJ-11 – The safest GOP district in NJ and a rarity in the Northeast, (outside Pennsylvania,) a generically safe GOP district. Short of a fantastic candidate this one won’t be on the radar.

Keep an eye on NJ-03.

State Senate – Up in 2011

State House – Up in 2009 zzzzzzzzzz

New York

Gubernatorial – zzzzzzzzzzz – Name one GOPper who could be elected statewide? – exactly.

US Senate – Both Dems. Despite Hillary’s appointment as SOS this one will be held by whichever Dem is appointed IMHO.

US House –

NY-03 – Pete King is genuinely popular in his district and we should be hoping that the rumours of him making a gubernatorial run turn out to be true. Otherwise we really do need a top tier candidate here – paging Tom Suozzi – but that is unlikely unless the seat is Open.

NY-23 – I expect McHugh to retire in 2010; call it a hunch. If so we will easily find a top tier candidate here otherwise McHugh is perceived as unbeatable.

NY-26 – Democrats in this District just got it wrong in the Primary and we need a top tier candidate against a freshman incumbent who only got 55% first time at bat.

Keep an eye on Dem incumbents in NY-24, NY-25 and NY-29.

State Senate – Yep we have just won control of this chamber for the first time in like 3 million years. It should be 32/30 or maybe 33/29 with one race still undecided. With them all up again in 2010 we need to look for GOP State Senators who are in heavily Democratic areas of NYC and unlikely to run again as they are now free of the influence of Joe Bruni (R-thug) who kept a number of GOP Senators in place long after they wanted to retire.

I think the following are potentially competitive races as open, specials or vulnerable incumbents in 2010:

NY SS-06 – GOP incumbent won with 51.5% of the vote in 2008.

NY SS-11 – Race still undecided if Repub incumbent wins it will be by less than 1000 votes.

NY SS-22 – GOP incumbent in heart of blue NYC.

NY SS-42 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-44 – GOP incumbent rumoured to be retiring mid-term.

NY SS-56 – GOP incumbent won with 52.2% of the vote.

NY SS-61 – GOP incumbent won with 53.5% of the vote.

Not to mention that an additional 4 or 5 GOP State Senators will be older than 70 in 2010.

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Pennsylvania

Gubernatorial – This one might get complicated. Dem Gov Ed Rendell is term limited and Dem Lt Gov Catherine Baker Knoll has just sadly passed away thus making State Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati the new Lt Gov and he is a Republican. Deep bench on our side including Senator Bob Casey? It goes without saying that the Repubs will have a top tier candidate also. This race makes me nervous as Pennsylvania is less reliably blue than any other state in the North East.

US Senate – 1 of ours (Casey), 1 of theirs (Specter) who is up in 2010. It has been suggested to me that Specter coud be approached to switch which would be fine by me but failing that we have a deep bench and this is a must win if we are to continue the blueing of the Northeast. Specter may yet decide to retire in which case we really are in the box seat for this race.

US House –

PA-05 – This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans.

PA-06 – As probably the single biggest recruiting miss of 2008 this one is infuriating. Gerlach was held to 52% by a 3rd tier candidate and Obama won every county that this district covers. It is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Probably the highest priority house race for the DCCC on offense in the Northeast (open seats notwithstanding).

PA-09 – One of 4 super safe districts in the state for the Republicans. This central Pennsylvania district will not be on the radar unless we have an ultra conservative candidate. Yep just like PA-05.

PA-15 – Like PA-06 Obama carried every county in this one and yep it is also one of only 5 won by Kerry that is occupied by a GOP House Rep. Disappointing 41% for 2008 Dem candidate means we need a top tier challenger here ASAP.

PA-16 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th and 9th unlikely to be a priority.

PA-18 – In theory could be vaguely competitive in 2010 (Bush only got 54% here in 2004) but unlikely given the low hanging fruit in the 6th and 15th.

PA-19 – Another super safe district for the GOP. Like the 5th, 6th and 16th unlikely to be a priority in 2010.

Watch Dem incumbents in PA-03 and PA-11.

State Senate – The only State chamber still controlled by the GOP in the Northeast. We actually went backwards there this year dropping from 21/28/1 to 20/29/1. And with only half of the State Senate up every two years this one is a hard one to flip in 2010. However the following should probably be targetted IMHO, particularly if they are open races:

PA SS-06 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.4% in 2006.

PA SS-10 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.5% in 2006.

PA SS-12 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-16 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 54.2% in 2006.

PA SS-20 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-24 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.2% in 2006.

PA SS-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SS-50 – Incumbent got 53.5% in 2006.

Now I am not suggesting that every State Senate race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also.

State House – In 2008 we managed to increase our margin of control from 102/101 to 104/99; still far too close for comfort. Vulnerable Repubs include:

PA SH-4 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-13 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-15 – Incumbent got 51.5% in 2008.

PA SH-18 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-26 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-28 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-29 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-30 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-31 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-44 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-57 – Incumbent got 51.6% in 2008.

PA SH-61 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-70 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-75 – Incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-102 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-104 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-105 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-106 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-128 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.8% in 2008.

PA SH-129 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-131 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-134 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-138 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-142 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 51.7% in 2008.

PA SH-146 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 53.3% in 2008.

PA SH-150 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-152 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-155 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-157 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-158 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-160 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-162 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-163 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-164 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-165 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-167 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-168 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-169 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-170 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-172 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-176 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-177 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-178 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-183 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama.

PA SH-187 – Wholly contained in Counties carried by Obama, incumbent got 52.3% in 2008.

Now I am not suggesting that every State House race here will be competitive in 2010 as I understand that Blue counties can have Red parts, particularly given that State House districts are so small, but if the Red parts of NYC can be turned then Red parts of Blue counties in PA can be turned also. Yep the same thinking that applies to the PA State Senate.

Rhode Island

Gubernatorial – GOP Gov Don Carcieri is term limited! With a bench a mile deep we should be a lock to pick this one up as the GOP bench is almost non existent.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzz

Vermont

Gubernatorial – If GOP Gov Jim Douglas runs he wins I think. However if he runs for the Senate then we should win here EXCEPT for one nasty wrinkle. In Vermont the Progrssive Party frequently run in statewide races which not only splits the left of centre vote but often allows Republicans to get elected. Surely an accomodation must be able to be found to allow us to have a decent shot at this one in 2010. OTOH GOP Lt Gov Brian Dubie is almost the only statewide candidate that the GOP could present and he could make a race of it.

US Senate – Both Dems

US House – ALL OURS BABY!

State Senate – zzzzzzzzzzzz

State House – zzzzzzzzzzzz

What do you think?