Tag: CT-Sen

Politically speaking, I’m not sure it gets much worse than this:

At a ceremony honoring veterans and senior citizens who sent presents to soldiers overseas, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut rose and spoke of an earlier time in his life.

“We have learned something important since the days that I served in Vietnam,” Mr. Blumenthal said to the group gathered in Norwalk in March 2008. “And you exemplify it. Whatever we think about the war, whatever we call it – Afghanistan or Iraq – we owe our military men and women unconditional support.”

There was one problem: Mr. Blumenthal, a Democrat now running for the United States Senate, never served in Vietnam. He obtained at least five military deferments from 1965 to 1970 and took repeated steps that enabled him to avoid going to war, according to records. …

In 1970, with his last deferment in jeopardy, he enlisted in the Marine Reserve, landing a coveted spot in a unit in Washington, which virtually guaranteed that he would not be sent to Vietnam. The unit conducted part-time drills and other exercises and focused on local projects, like fixing a campground and organizing a Toys for Tots drive.

Wow. We need to draft Chris Murphy into this race immediately.

UPDATE: The Dem statewide convention is this weekend. Conceivably delegates could nominate someone other than Blumenthal. If someone else wants to get on the primary ballot via petition, they need to file 7,500 signatures by June 8th (PDF).

LATE UPDATE (5/21): Upon further reflection, it looks like we seriously jumped the gun here, thanks to what turned out to be a very misleading story by the New York Times. I’ve edited the headline to reflect this.

• AK-Sen: Moose man endorses Some Dude. That’s SSP shorthand for: Todd Palin just endorsed Joe Miller, the right-wing lawyer who’s taking on Lisa Murkowski in the Republican Senate primary. Recall that Mr. Palin has had some fairly fringey politics in the past (as with his membership in the Alaskan Independence Party), so I wonder if this was done with his wife’s approval (or, given her busy schedule these days, whether he was even able to block out some time with her to get her say-so). Given her rumored brief interest in taking on Murkowski in the primary herself (back when she was still Governor rather than itinerant book-selling motivational-speaking grifter), and her long-standing beef with all things Murkowksi, I’d suppose yes.

• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, trying to make up last-minute ground in the GOP primary against Tom Campbell, has thrown $1.1 million of her own money into her campaign. On top of previous loans to her campaign, that brings her total self-contributions to $3.6 million. Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner were both heard scoffing loudly.

• CT-Sen: Chalk this one up to bad, bad timing. Linda McMahon just sent out a mailer proposing to “put Connecticut back to work” by “increasing offshore drilling and production” (um, in Long Island Sound?). The mailer features a large, lovely picture of a (non-burning) offshore oil rig.

• NH-Sen: Has Kelly Ayotte just given up on any pretense of trying to look moderate? She’s appearing at a Susan B. Anthony List (the anti-abortion group) fundraiser today, headlined by Sarah Palin, along with a supporting cast like Rep. Steve King. I know that she still needs to survive her GOP primary, but her main opposition these days is looking like moderate Bill Binnie, not right-wing Ovide Lamontagne.

• NV-Sen: Steve Kornacki looks at the Nevada Senate race and the “what if” scenario if Sharron Angle somehow wins the primary. History indicates that Harry Reid can’t pin too many hopes on winning just because the GOP puts forth its most extreme candidate… maybe the biggest case in point, the Carter camp’s hopes that wacko Ronald Reagan would make it out of the GOP primary in 1980.

• NY-Sen: Wow, there’s actually going to be a GOP primary for the right to get mulched by Chuck Schumer! Nassau County Comptroller George Maragos, who’s only been on the job half a year, is already looking to move up. He’ll still have to get past political consultant Jay Townsend in the primary.

• UT-Sen: She stopped short of a formal endorsement, but fringey activist Cherilyn Eagar, who finished fourth at the GOP convention, said that Tim Bridgewater would be “an excellent senator” and complimented him on a “clean, honest race.” Eagar is back to her day job fighting the menace posed by gnomes.

• AL-Gov: I’m losing track of all the weird outside groups popping up to play dirty pool in the Alabama governor’s race. Today’s entrant is the mysterious New Sons of Liberty, whose main agenda seems to be Barack Obama’s birth certificate. They’ve reserved $1.1 million in TV airtime, although it’s unclear what they’ll be advertising about or on behalf of whom. The leader of a group, Basics Project, affiliated with the New Sons is mystified at where they would have gotten that kind of money, so it seems like they’re being used as a conduit for… well, somebody.

There’s also a new poll out of the Republican primary, by Republican pollster Baselice (on behalf of local PR firm Public Strategy Associates… there’s no word on whether any of the candidates are their client). They find Bradley Byrne barely leading Tim James 24-23. Roy Moore, who many thought would be the man to beat, is lagging at 18, with Robert Bentley at 12 and Bill Johnson at 2. The juicier numbers might be down in the AG race, where GOP incumbent Troy King is in all kinds of trouble. He’s losing 50-25 to challenger Luther Strange. There are three Dems in the AG field, most prominently James Anderson, ready to try to exploit the cat-fud fight.

• AR-Gov: One thing we didn’t mention in our writeup of Research 2000’s AR-Sen poll from yesterday is that they were the first pollster to throw the Arkansas Governor’s race into the mix. Incumbent Dem Mike Beebe routinely sports some of the highest favorables of any politician (64/24 here), and he seems immune from Arkansas’ reddish trend and the nation’s overall anti-incumbent fervor. He leads Republican former state Sen. Jim Keet, 62-19.

• CT-Gov: Former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy picked up another potentially useful endorsement today as we make our way toward Connecticut’s endorsing conventions. He got the nod from Rep. John Larson, the #4 man on the House totem pole. UPDATE: On the GOP side, ex-Rep. Chris Shays has an endorsement of his own: Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele.

• NY-Gov: It’s kind of more meta than we’d like, to report on an announcement about an announcement (about an announcement), but it sounds like we’re getting closer to pinning down a date from Andrew Cuomo. It’s being reported that he’ll announce his gubernatorial candidacy on or around May 25, the start of the state Democratic convention.

• AL-05: Rep. Parker Griffith is already up with a negative ad hitting one of his Republican primary opponents, Madison Co. Commissioner Mo Brooks, calling him a “career politician” and “big spender.” Brooks observed, perhaps correctly (although the Alabama primary is fast approaching), that an incumbent attacking a challenger is a big-time sign of weakness.

• GA-09: Former state Rep. Tom Graves, in the runoff for the special election in this seat against fellow Republican Lee Hawkins, got the endorsement from nearby Rep. Lynn “Uppity” Westmoreland. In a district this red, that may actually be a plus.

• MN-06: An unaffiliated independent, Troy Freihammer, may appear on the ballot, in addition to Independence Party nominee Bob Anderson. He needs 1,000 signatures by month’s end, though, so he may not make that hurdle. Getting him on might be a net plus for the Dems, as his website makes pretty clear he’s a Tenther and he’s only likely to take votes away from Michele Bachmann.

• OR-01: SurveyUSA is way down in the weeds here (although that’s because the poll where they get paid to do so, in this case by local TV affiliate KATU), with a look at the primaries in the 1st. In a four-way field on the GOP side, the NRCC’s preferred candidate, sports-industry consultant Rob Cornilles, leads at 31, beating mortgage broker John Kuzmanich at 19. The other guy whose name you hear in connection with this race, Stephan Brodhead (mostly because he somehow summoned up $298K CoH) is polling at all of 3, probably because his main campaign activity seems to be trolling the online comment sections of local newspapers and people have ascertained thusly that he’s a wackjob. Rep. David Wu is at 75% against token opposition on the Dem side.

• PA-04: What was supposed to be a victory lap for former US Attorney and loyal Bushie Mary Beth Buchanan has turned into a real dogfight with attorney Keith Rothfus, seemingly helped along by her apparent ineptitude at electoral politics. She’s currently drawing fire for a “deceitful” mailer which uses the National Rifle Association logo without its permission. Things have actually been going badly enough on the message-control front that improbable rumors have her dropping out of the race (with days to go), although her camp is saying her “major political announcement” is just a press conference to go on the offensive against Rothfus.

• Census: An interesting article from Stateline looks at what various states are doing to amp up Census participation. The real interest, here, is a neat map they’ve put together rating the states not on their overall participation percentages, but on the overall shifts in participation percentage from 2000 to 2010. Intriguingly, the biggest improvements in participation were clustered in the Deep South (especially North and South Carolina, both of which are on the cusp of adding another seat), while the Mountain West states suffered the most. California also seemed to fall off a bit, as budget limitations kept them from doing much outreach this time around, which could conceivably hurt their hopes of staying at 53 seats.

AR-Sen (4/26, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 29 (36)

John Boozman (R): 57 (51)

Some other: 9 (6)

Not sure: 5 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 30 (35)

Kim Hendren (R): 51 (51)

Some other: 11 (5)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (36)

Gilbert Baker (R): 53 (51)

Some other: 12 (6)

Not sure: 4 (7)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32 (36)

Curtis Coleman (R): 52 (48)

Some other: 8 (7)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (35)

Jim Holt (R): 54 (51)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 9 (7)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)

John Boozman (R): 56 (48)

Some other: 7 (8)

Not sure: 7 (11)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (34)

Kim Hendren (R): 45 (42)

Some other: 13 (10)

Not sure: 9 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 33 (36)

Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (44)

Some other: 10 (7)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Bill Halter (D): 37 (37)

Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (40)

Some other: 11 (10)

Not sure: 9 (13)

Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)

Jim Holt (R): 49 (43)

Some other: 12 (9)

Not sure: 8 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 4/16 in parentheses):

Terry Goddard (D): 40 (40)

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 48 (44)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 5 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (41)

Jane Norton (R): 48 (46)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 6 (8)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 48 (44)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 7 (12)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42 (39)

Tom Wiens (R): 44 (45)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (38)

Jane Norton (R): 46 (49)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (37)

Ken Buck (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (38)

Tom Wiens (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Gov (5/4, likely voters, 4/1 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 42 (37)

Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)

Some other: 11 (7)

Not sure: 13 (13)

Ned Lamont (D): 48 (41)

Michael Fedele (R): 28 (38)

Some other: 9 (9)

Not sure: 15 (12)

Dan Malloy (D): 38 (35)

Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)

Some other: 11 (8)

Not sure: 16 (14)

Dan Malloy (D): 44 (40)

Michael Fedele (R): 27 (37)

Some other: 10 (7)

Not sure: 20 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/7 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (55)

Linda McMahon (R): 39 (35)

Some other: 6 (3)

Not sure: 4 (6)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (52)

Rob Simmons (R): 32 (38)

Some other: 5 (4)

Not sure: 8 (6)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (58)

Peter Schiff (R): 29 (32)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 11 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

DE-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 2/22 in parentheses):

Chris Coons (D): 32 (32)

Mike Castle (R): 55 (53)

Some other: 7 (8)

Not sure: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/21 in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (22)

Marco Rubio (R): 34 (37)

Charlie Crist (I): 38 (30)

Not sure: 11 (11)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

GA-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Roy Barnes (D): 43 (41)

John Oxendine (R): 45 (41)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 6 (11)

Roy Barnes (D): 39 (40)

Nathan Deal (R): 46 (43)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 8 (13)

Roy Barnes (D): 41 (39)

Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 10 (14)

Roy Barnes (D): 42 (40)

Eric Johnson (R): 37 (38)

Some other: 8 (6)

Not sure: 13 (16)

Thurbert Baker (D): 34

John Oxendine (R): 44

Some other: 9

Not sure: 13

Thurbert Baker (D): 31

Nathan Deal (R): 47

Some other: 9

Not sure: 13

Thurbert Baker (D): 36

Karen Handel (R): 44

Some other: 5

Not sure: 15

Thurbert Baker (D): 35

Eric Johnson (R): 38

Some other: 9

Not sure: 18

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Gov (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (36)

Terry Branstad (R): 53 (52)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 3 (6)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (40)

Bob Vander Plaats (R): 45 (42)

Some other: 9 (8)

Not sure: 5 (11)

Chet Culver (D-inc): 43 (40)

Rod Roberts (R): 41 (38)

Some other: 9 (10)

Not sure: 7 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IA-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):

Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (36)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 53 (55)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 4 (5)

Bob Krause (D): 31 (31)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 8 (8)

Tom Fiegen (D): 30 (28)

Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (38)

Bill Brady (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 11 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/ in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (37)

Mark Kirk (R): 46 (41)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 12 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IN-Sen (5/5-6, likely voters, 4/13-14 in parentheses):

Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (33)

Dan Coats (R): 51 (54)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

KY-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 38 (36)

Rand Paul (R): 47 (50)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 10 (11)

Jack Conway (D): 38 (32)

Trey Grayson (R): 43 (52)

Some other: 8 (5)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 32 (37)

Rand Paul (R): 48 (52)

Some other: 8 (3)

Not sure: 12 (8)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 31 (33)

Trey Grayson (R): 45 (53)

Some other: 10 (5)

Not sure: 13 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MI-Gov (D primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):

Andy Dillon (D): 13 (12)

Virg Bernero (D): 12 (8)

Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 9 (10)

Some other: 15 (17)

Not sure: 51 (53)

(MoE: ±6%)

MI-Gov (R primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):

Peter Hoekstra (R): 28 (27)

Rick Snyder (R): 14 (18)

Mike Cox (R): 13 (13)

Mike Bouchard (R): 9 (6)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 32 (32)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 50 (47)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 4 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NC-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 4/19 in parentheses):

Elaine Marshall (D): 40 (32)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 48 (50)

Some other: 3 (6)

Not sure: 9 (12)

Cal Cunningham (D): 37 (31)

Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (53)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 10 (13)

(MoE: ±3%)

NC-Sen (D runoff) (5/5, likely voters, no trendlines):

Elaine Marshall (D): 42

Cal Cunningham (D): 37

Some other: 4

Not sure: 17

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-AL (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):

Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45 (44)

Rick Berg (R): 49 (51)

Some other: 2 (1)

Not sure: 4 (4)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

ND-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):

Tracy Potter (D): 24 (25)

John Hoeven (R): 69 (68)

Some other: 2 (2)

Not sure: 5 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Rory Reid (D): 47 (43)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (45)

Some other: 12 (8)

Not sure: 3 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 35 (34)

Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (55)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 5 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 39 (38)

Mike Montandon (R): 45 (45)

Some other: 9 (9)

Not sure: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (39)

Sue Lowden (R): 52 (54)

Some other: 6 (4)

Not sure: 3 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 4 (2)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)

Sharron Angle (R): 48 (51)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 4 (3)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NY-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/29 in parentheses):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 56 (52)

Rick Lazio (R): 24 (29)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 14 (13)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 50 (50)

Steve Levy (R): 27 (26)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 17 (17)

Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (51)

Carl Paladino (R): 25 (28)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 14 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Gov (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (45)

John Kasich (R): 46 (46)

Some other: 3 (2)

Not sure: 6 (7)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OH-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):

Lee Fisher (D): 43 (38)

Rob Portman (R): 42 (43)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

OR-Gov (4/26, likely voters, 2/17 in parentheses):

John Kitzhaber (D): 41 (42)

Chris Dudley (R): 41 (36)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 13 (15)

John Kitzhaber (D): 48 (42)

Allen Alley (R): 33 (34)

Some other: 6 (8)

Not sure: 13 (16)

John Kitzhaber (D): 50 (40)

John Lim (R): 34 (38)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 12 (14)

Bill Bradbury (D): 40 (39)

Chris Dudley (R): 40 (36)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 13 (17)

Bill Bradbury (D): 43 (41)

Allen Alley (R): 34 (35)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 16 (16)

Bill Bradbury (D): 44 (38)

John Lim (R): 32 (35)

Some other: 9 (9)

Not sure: 15 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Gov (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dan Onorato (D): 34

Jack Wagner (D): 17

Anthony Williams (D): 17

Joe Hoeffel (D): 9

Some other: 6

Not sure: 17

(MoE: ±5%)

PA-Sen (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (50)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 6 (6)

Joe Sestak (D): 40 (36)

Pat Toomey (R): 42 (47)

Some other: 10 (5)

Not sure: 9 (12)

(MoE: ±3%)

PA-Sen (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):

Joe Sestak (D): 47 (42)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (44)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 8 (10)

(MoE: ±5%)

RI-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Frank Caprio (D): 33 (28)

John Robitaille (R): 21 (22)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (39)

Not sure: 13 (11)

Patrick Lynch (D): 24 (22)

John Robitaille (R): 26 (26)

Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (37)

Not sure: 15 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-AL (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 45 (44)

Chris Nelson (R): 41 (42)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 9 (9)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50 (46)

Kristi Noem (R): 35 (35)

Some other: 5 (8)

Not sure: 9 (10)

Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (45)

Blake Curd (R): 36 (33)

Some other: 7 (8)

Not sure: 9 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

SD-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):

Scott Heidepriem (D): 33 (32)

Dennis Daugaard (R): 53 (49)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 9 (13)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 41 (37)

Dave Knudson (R): 41 (32)

Some other: 9 (13)

Not sure: 10 (19)

Scott Heidepriem (D): 46 (39)

Gordon Howie (R): 31 (34)

Some other: 8 (9)

Not sure: 14 (17)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

WA-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/6 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)

Dino Rossi (R): 46 (46)

Some other: 2 (3)

Not sure: 3 (4)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 52 (48)

Don Benton (R): 38 (40)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 7 (8)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (47)

Clint Didier (R): 36 (37)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 8 (11)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (45)

Paul Akers (R): 35 (37)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 10 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The signature by Gov. Jan Brewer (which may have helped her survive the GOP primary, but may also hurt her in the general) of Arizona’s new aggressive anti-immigrant law was the key motivating factor in a new Democratic candidate getting into the Senate race: civil rights activist Randy Parraz. He’ll face Rodney Glassman in the Democratic primary. (Why not the, y’know, Arizona Governor’s race instead? Apparently Glassman looks like easier primary opposition than AG Terry Goddard in the governor’s race… and at any rate, John McCain and J.D. Hayworth have both been beating the war drums on immigration.) And here’s an interesting take on the immigration law: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo just came out in opposition to it, saying, “I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over.” If even Tom Tancredo thinks you’re doing it wrong… you’re probably doing it wrong.

• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s campaign doesn’t seem to be doing anything illegal here, but there’s still no good way to spin this: the campaign has been offering students an extra $5 bounty (on top of a flat hourly rate) for every Republican registered during a Univ. of Connecticut voter registration drive. It’s a practice that the DOJ has frowned upon.

• IL-Sen: In the wake of the seizure of the Broadway Bank, Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in getting an explanatory ad on the air, laying it out in easy-to-grasp points: one, he hadn’t worked there in years and when he left it was fine, two, the broader economy took the bank down, and three, speaking of that economic downturn, don’t vote for unemployment-benefits-denying Mark Kirk.

• MD-Sen: OK, maybe all those Barb Mikulski retirement rumors will finally go away. She just had her campaign’s official kickoff event on Friday. She has 24 times the cash of her likeliest Republican opponent, Queen Anne’s Co. Commissioner Eric Wargotz.

• NC-Sen: Elon University’s out with another poll; they still aren’t doing head-to-heads, but have some assorted other numbers that Richard Burr would probably rather not see. His approvals (among flat-out everybody, not even RVs) are 28/37 and 26% say he “deserves re-election” with 44% saying “time for a new person.”

• NV-Sen: A poll for the Nevada News Bureau performed by PMI finds Sue Lowden leading the pack in the GOP Senate primary, at 41. Danny Tarkanian is at 24, Sharron Angle is at 17, and “someone else” is at 18. The poll was taken on the 22nd, shortly after Lowden laid out her support for trading chickens in exchange for poultices and tinctures.

• NY-Sen-B: Long-time Rockland Co. Exec Scott Vanderhoef has decided not to pursue a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, after having spent a month in exploratory mode, saying the money’s just not there. Vanderhoef probably found he didn’t have the name rec outside of Rockland Co. to have an advantage against the odds and ends in the GOP primary, let alone in the general.

• UT-Sen: Another poll of GOP delegates for the convention in Utah isn’t as bad for Bob Bennett as the one leaked to Dave Weigel last week, but it still looks pretty bad for him. Mike Lee leads the way among first-choice votes at 31%, followed by Bennett at 22% (and then Tim Bridgewater at 17% and Cherilyn Eagar at 10%). 41% of delegates say they will “absolutely not” vote for Bennett, so even if Bennett picks up the other 59%, he still can’t nail down the nomination at the convention (as there’s a 60% threshold).

• WA-Sen: Everyone seemed a little taken by surprise by Friday’s SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race, which has non-candidate (for now) Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray 52-42 (and leading the various no-name GOPers actively in the race by 2 or 3 points). Even the Rossi camp is downplaying it, saying that their internal polling places Murray in the lead – which is an odd strategy for someone who got gifted an outlying poll, unless either he’s trying to rope-a-dope Murray into complacency or privately cursing the results saying “aw crap, now I have to run for Senate.” One of the no-namers, motivational speaker Chris Widener, got out of the race on Friday, which may also portend a Rossi run (or just having taken a stark look at his own finances). Murray’s camp may have gotten advance warning of the SurveyUSA poll, as on Friday they leaked their own internal from Fairbank Maslin giving Murray a 49-41 lead over Rossi, very consistent with R2K’s recent poll.

• IL-Gov: Oh, goody. Scott Lee Cohen, having bailed out/gotten booted off the Democratic ticket as Lt. Governor nominee after his criminal record became news, still has a political issue that needs scratching. He’s announcing that he’s going to run an independent bid for Governor instead. Considering how thoroughly his dirty laundry has been aired, he seems likely to poll in the low single digits; I have no idea whether his candidacy (which now appeals mostly only to the steroid-addled pawnbroker demographic) is more harmful to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady, or just the world’s general sense of decency.

• MI-Gov: When I heard a few weeks ago that Geoffrey Fieger (the trial lawyer best known for defending Jack Kevorkian and second-best-known for his awful turn as 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) was pondering another gubernatorial run, I laughed it off. The new EPIC-MRA poll makes it seem a bit more serious, though… which, in turn, if he won the primary, would pretty much foreclose any Democratic shot at winning the general. They only polled the Democratic primary and find, thanks to name rec within the Detroit metro area, Fieger is actually comfortably in the lead at 28%. Andy Dillon is at 20, Virg Bernero is at 13, Alma Wheeler Smith is at 8, other is at 2, and 29% are undecided. Fieger hasn’t moved much to act on his interest, though, and has only three weeks to collect the necessary 15,000 signatures to qualify.

• FL-24: Karen Diebel earned the backing of Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary in the 24th, focusing on (with Tancredo, what else?) in the immigration issue. It seems less of a pro-Diebel endorsement than more of a slap against her GOP opponent Craig Miller, though; in a 2006 Miami Herald op-ed, Miller (who was at that point chairman of the National Restaurant Association) came out pretty solidly on the “cheap labor” side of the Republican split on immigration.

• GA-12: Democrats looking for an upgrade from ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas (who raised $10K last quarter and has $4K CoH) for a primary challenge to recalcitrant Blue Dog John Barrow are going to have to keep looking. State Sen. Lester Jackson decided to take a pass, and will stay neutral in the Barrow/Thomas race. He’ll focus instead of supporting the Senate bid of Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond (another rumored, but no-longer, challenger to Barrow).

• LA-03: Bobby Jindal just appointed Scott Angelle, the state’s Sec. of Natural Resources, to the vacant position of Lt. Governor. Why is this filed under LA-03? Angelle was rumored to be one of the top contenders to run for the 3rd (although it was unclear whether he was going to do it as a Dem or a GOPer… Angelle was a Dem in the legislature, but appointed by GOP Gov. Jindal to his cabinet). With Angelle saying he’ll return to his job at Natural Resources after a permanent replacement is elected, that means that former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty well locked-in as the GOP nominee in the 3rd, and the Dems aren’t likely to get an upgrade from attorney Ravi Sangisetty, making this open seat a very likely GOP pickup. (H/t GOPVOTER.)

• NY-01: Randy Altschuler got the endorsement from the Suffolk County Conservative Party on Friday, which guarantees him a place on the ballot if he wants it. He’ll still need to overcome Chris Cox and George Demos in the competitive three-way moneybags duel in the GOP primary (where the county GOP recently switched its endorsement from Altschuler to Cox). It’s unclear whether he’d keep the Conservative line if he lost the GOP primary, as that would create a NY-23 type situation and pretty much assure Rep. Tim Bishop’s safety. (Unlike the patchwork of counties in the upstate districts, all of the 1st is within Suffolk.)

• NY-29: The GOP would really, really like to have a special election in the 29th, despite David Paterson’s apparent intention to play out the clock until November (and prevent a possible GOP pickup, given the difference in strength between the likely candidates). Several GOP party chairs within the district are preparing a lawsuit that would force a special election; the state GOP plans to assist.

• OH-02: Bad news for Jean Schmidt: although she got the Hamilton Co. GOP’s endorsement in the previous two elections, she’s going to have to proceed without it this year. They’re staying neutral as she faces several primary challengers, most notably Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn.

• PA-12: In battling independent expenditures in the 12th, the GOP went large, as the NRCC plunked down $235K on media buys. The DCCC also spent $16K on media buys.

• SC-04: The dean at Bob Jones University (the crown jewel in the buckle of the Bible Belt, in Greenville in the 4th), Robert Taylor, has announced he’s supporting Trey Gowdy in the GOP primary instead of incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis. The occasionally-moderate Inglis (more stylistically than in actual voting substance, though) faces at least three right-wing competitors in the primary, but could run into trouble if he doesn’t clear 50% and gets forced into a runoff with one of them.

• WV-01: There are dueling internal polls in the 1st, in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Mike Oliverio was first to release a poll, saying he led Rep. Alan Mollohan 41-33. (One caveat: Oliverio’s pollster is Orion Strategies, owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who also just happens to be Oliverio’s campaign manager.) Mollohan struck back with a poll from Frederick Polls giving him a 45-36 lead over Oliverio, with the primary fast approaching on May 11.

• MA-AG: Despite it now being widely known that Martha Coakley has a glass jaw (or what’s something more fragile than glass? what do they make those fake bottles out of that they use in bar fights in the movies?), she may actually get re-elected Attorney General without facing any GOP opposition whatsoever this fall. Of course, that may have something to do with the fact that the GOP’s entire bench in Massachusetts just got elected to the Senate.

• Pennsylvania: The Philadelphia Inquirer has an interesting look at the changes in registration in Pennsylvania over the last decade. The Democratic Party grew substantially in the state’s east, gaining 550,000 registrations up to 4.3 million voters. The GOP shrank by 103,000 registrations down to 3.1 million votes. The Dems lost 20,000 voters in the state’s southwest, though; in 2002, 27.8% of the state’s Dems were in the Pittsburgh area, but that’s down to 23.8%. Contrast that with the Philadelphia metro area: in its five counties, the number of Republicans dropped 13.5%, from a million to 873,000.

• Redistricting: Here’s the last redistricting resource you’ll ever need: a handy map showing congressional and legislative redistricting procedures for all 50 states. There’s also an accompanying document (pdf) which goes into remarkable detail about the various processes, and even contains an appendix of some of the ugliest current gerrymanders.

AZ-Sen (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Rodney Glassman (D): 32

John McCain (R-inc): 54

Some other: 8

Not sure: 6

Rodney Glassman (D): 39

J.D. Hayworth (R): 48

Some other: 7

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

AZ-Sen (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):

John McCain (R-inc): 47 (48)

J.D. Hayworth (R): 42 (41)

Some other: 2 (3)

Not sure: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4%)

CA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/11 in parentheses):

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (43)

Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 10 (10)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)

Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (40)

Some other: 7 (4)

Not sure: 13 (10)

Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)

Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)

Some other: 8 (4)

Not sure: 12 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42 (42)

Scott McInnis (R): 48 (48)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 6 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CO-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (39)

Jane Norton (R): 46 (48)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 8 (6)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)

Ken Buck (R): 44 (44)

Some other: 3 (6)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)

Tom Wiens (R): 45 (43)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 12 (11)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (42)

Jane Norton (R): 49 (44)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 8 (9)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 37 (40)

Ken Buck (R): 45 (41)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 13 (13)

Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (41)

Tom Wiens (R): 45 (41)

Some other: 6 (6)

Not sure: 11 (13)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Gov (4/1, likely voters, 2/1 in parentheses):

Ned Lamont (D): 37 (40)

Tom Foley (R): 44 (37)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 13 (14)

Ned Lamont (D): 41 (41)

Michael Fedele (R): 38 (33)

Some other: 9 (8)

Not sure: 12 (18)

Dan Malloy (D): 35 (37)

Tom Foley (R): 44 (36)

Some other: 8 (10)

Not sure: 14 (18)

Dan Malloy (D): 40 (36)

Michael Fedele (R): 37 (35)

Some other: 7 (9)

Not sure: 16 (21)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

CT-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (58)

Rob Simmons (R): 38 (32)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (60)

Linda McMahon (R): 35 (31)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (57)

Peter Schiff (R): 32 (27)

Some other: 4 (6)

Not sure: 6 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

FL-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):

Marco Rubio (R): 57 (56)

Charlie Crist (R): 28 (34)

Some other: 3 (1)

Not sure: 12 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (37)

Bill Brady (R): 45 (47)

Some other: 7 (6)

Not sure: 10 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

IL-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (44)

Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)

Some other: 8 (5)

Not sure: 13 (10)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

KY-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):

Jack Conway (D): 36 (34)

Rand Paul (R): 50 (49)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 11 (13)

Jack Conway (D): 32 (31)

Trey Grayson (R): 52 (49)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 11 (14)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (34)

Rand Paul (R): 52 (51)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 33 (33)

Trey Grayson (R): 53 (46)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 9 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

LA-Sen (4/, likely voters, 3/10 in parentheses):

Charlie Melancon (D): 36 (34)

David Vitter (R-inc): 52 (57)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 8 (6)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MA-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Deval Patrick (D): 35 (35)

Charlie Baker (R): 27 (32)

Tim Cahill (I): 23 (19)

Not sure: 15 (14)

Deval Patrick (D): 38 (34)

Christy Mihos (R): 15 (19)

Tim Cahill (I): 33 (30)

Not sure: 14 (16)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

MO-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)

Roy Blunt (R): 48 (47)

Some other: 3 (4)

Not sure: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Gov (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

John Lynch (D-inc): 47 (50)

John Stephen (R): 37 (35)

Some other: 5 (2)

Not sure: 11 (14)

John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (51)

Jack Kimball (R): 34 (32)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 12 (13)

John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (54)

Karen Testerman (R): 33 (28)

Some other: 6 (5)

Not sure: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NH-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):

Paul Hodes (D): 35 (37)

Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (47)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 11 (12)

Paul Hodes (D): 37 (36)

Bill Binnie (R): 49 (46)

Some other: 4 (4)

Not sure: 10 (14)

Paul Hodes (D): 39 (42)

Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (38)

Some other: 7 (5)

Not sure: 11 (15)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Gov (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):

Rory Reid (D): 43 (44)

Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 45 (36)

Some other: 8 (15)

Not sure: 4 (4)

Rory Reid (D): 34 (35)

Brian Sandoval (R): 55 (53)

Some other: 6 (7)

Not sure: 4 (5)

Rory Reid (D): 38 (37)

Mike Montandon (R): 45 (42)

Some other: 9 (13)

Not sure: 8 (8)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

NV-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):

Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (38)

Sue Lowden (R): 54 (51)

Some other: 4 (7)

Not sure: 2 (3)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (37)

Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)

Some other: 6 (9)

Not sure: 2 (4)

Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (38)

Sharron Angle (R): 51 (46)

Some other: 6 (11)

Not sure: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

PA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (40)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (49)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 6 (7)

Joe Sestak (D): 36 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 47 (42)

Some other: 5 (7)

Not sure: 12 (15)

(MoE: ±3%)

PA-Sen (D primary) (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (48)

Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)

Some other: 4 (5)

Not sure: 10 (9)

(MoE: ±5%)

UT-Gov (4/8, likely voters, no trendlines):

Peter Corroon (D): 29

Gary Herbert (R-inc): 57

Some other: 4

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±3%)

UT-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters):

Bob Bennett (R-inc): 37

Tim Bridgewater (R): 14

Mike Lee (R): 14

Merrill Cook (R): 6

Cherilyn Eagar (R): 4

Some other: 3

Not sure: 21

(MoE: ±4%)

WA-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (46)

Dino Rossi (R): 46 (49)

Some other: 3 (3)

Not sure: 4 (2)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)

Don Benton (R): 40 (37)

Some other: 4 (3)

Not sure: 8 (12)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)

Clint Didier (R): 37 (30)

Some other: 5 (6)

Not sure: 11 (15)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (47)

Chris Widener (R): 37 (32)

Some other: 5 (5)

Not sure: 12 (16)

Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (NA)

Paul Akers (R): 37 (NA)

Some other: 5 (NA)

Not sure: 13 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

• CA-Sen: Russian law enforcement officers raided Hewlett-Packard’s Moscow offices today, as part of an investigation into whether HP paid millions in bribes to the Russian government to win a large contract. Why are we leading with this story today? Guess who was CEO of HP in 2003, when the contract was executed? That’s right… Carly Fiorina.

• CO-Sen: Ken Buck, the right-wing Weld County DA who’s become a fave of the teabagger set (to the extent that establishment GOPer Jane Norton isn’t even looking to compete at the activist-dominated state assembly), just received the endorsement of hard-right starmaker Jim DeMint. (Buck’s last quarter wasn’t that impressive, though: $219K raised, $417K CoH.)

• CT-Sen: Here’s an indication of the savvy investment skills that got Linda McMahon to the top. She revealed that she self-financed another $8 million this quarter, bringing her total self-funding all cycle to $14 million. (She also raised $37K from others.) What was the return on her gigantic investment? Now she’s down a mere 25-or-so points to a guy who speaks in 10-minute-long run-on sentences. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons, who has to rely on the kindness of strangers instead, has seen his fundraising get drier in a post-Chris Dodd environment; he raised only $550K last quarter.

• IN-Sen: Here’s a big fat fundraising fail, although it may explain why he didn’t see any shame in missing the reporting deadline. Republican ex-Sen. Dan Coats’ comeback bid managed to pull in a whopping $379K last quarter. (He has $331K CoH.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt is doubling down on the stingy: he reiterated his desire to repeal HCR, even the part about making sure that people with preexisting conditions are able to get coverage. He also lost another skirmish in the perception battle today, as Robin Carnahan narrowly outraised him for the first quarter, $1.5 million to $1.3 million.

• NH-Sen, NH-01: In the New Hampshire Senate race, Kelly Ayotte and Paul Hodes are pretty closely matched fundraising-wise: she raised $671K in Q1 with $1.3 million CoH, while he raised $665K with $1.7 million CoH. Ayotte’s GOP primary opponent, William Binnie, raised $400K from donors even though he’s mostly focused on self-funding; he’s sitting on $1.7 million CoH, despite having been advertising constantly. In the 1st, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, never much of a fundraiser, had a so-so quarter; she raised $168K and sits on $485K.

• NV-Sen: Although she’s been dwindling in the polls, don’t quite count out former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle yet. The Tea Party Express endorsed the one-time Club for Growth favorite in the GOP Senate primary.

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter continues to be the cash king in the Pennsylvania Senate race, now sitting on a $9 million warchest, but he was substantially outraised by Pat Toomey in the last quarter. Specter raised $1.1 million in the first quarter, half of Toomey’s haul.

• GA-Gov, GA-Sen: It’s strange we’ve been dropping the ball on mentioning this poll for almost a week now, as it’s good news for Democrats. Research 2000 polled the general election in the Georgia gubernatorial race, and found ex-Gov. Roy Barnes narrowly ahead in all three configurations. He leads expected GOP nominee Insurance Comm. John Oxendine, 45-42, ex-Rep. Nathan Deal 44-42, and ex-SoS Karen Handel 44-43. AG Thurbert Baker, if he somehow gets the Dem nod, loses 48-36 to Oxendine, 48-35 to Deal, and 49-35 to Handel. Over in the Senate race, GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson looks pretty safe: he beats Baker 50-34 and Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond 53-26 (not that either one is planning to run).

• ME-Gov: Good news for Dems turned into bad over the course of a few days; social conservative Michael Heath (former head of the Maine Family Policy Council) launched an independent bid earlier this week (which would only serve to hurt the GOP), then did an about face and pulled the plug on it today. There’s already one prominent indie candidate in the race, environmental lawyer Eliot Cutler, who seems poised to draw more from Dems than the GOP.

• OR-Gov: Here’s a camera-ready moment from last night’s debate between Democratic party candidates John Kitzhaber and Bill Bradbury at the University of Oregon. In response to calls of “is there a doctor in the house?” when an elderly audience member started having a seizure, Kitzhaber (a former emergency room doctor) hopped down from the podium, stabilized him, and once an ambulance had arrived, resumed debating.

• CA-03: Ami Bera continues to do well on the fundraising front; he raised $380K in the first quarter, and is sitting on $977K CoH as he prepares for a tough challenge to Republican Rep. Dan Lungren.

• DE-AL: We’re going to have a big-dollar race in the at-large seat in Delaware, which just had the entry of two different Republicans with the capacity to self-finance large sums. Democratic ex-LG John Carney is working hard to stay in the same ballpark; he raised $255K in the first quarter and sits on $675K.

• FL-08: Could we still see The Devil vs. Daniel Webster? Rep. Alan Grayson repelled the socially conservative former state Senator many months ago, forcing the NRCC to scramble to find a lesser replacement (businessman Bruce O’Donoghue seems to be their preferred pick, although state Rep. Kurt Kelly is also in the race). But now people close to Webster say he’s giving some consideration to getting back in the race (apparently undaunted by Grayson’s huge Q1 haul). Insiders seem to think that’s unlikely, though, given the late date.

• FL-19: Congratulations to our newest Democratic Congressperson, Rep. Ted Deutch. The winner of Tuesday’s special election was sworn in this afternoon.

• NY-01: The battle of the rich guys is on, in the GOP primary in the 1st. Facing well-connected Randy Altschuler, Chris Cox (son of state chair Ed Cox, and grandson of Richard Nixon) whipped out his own large balance sheet. He raised $735K for the quarter, and has $624K CoH. (Cox loaned himself $500K.)

• NY-20: Republican Chris Gibson seems to have finally locked down the GOP slot in the 20th, but he has a deep hole to dig his way out of, against Rep. Scott Murphy’s seven-digit warchest. Gibson raised $109K and has $92K CoH.

• OH-13: Wealthy car dealer Tom Ganley is moving even more of his own money into his uphill race against Rep. Betty Sutton. He loaned himself another $2 million (although apparently his cupboard was bare before he did so, as now his CoH is also $2 million). Sutton, seeming caught off-guard by Ganley’s entry, raised only $135K and is sitting on $281K.

• PA-06: Rep. Jim Gerlach raised $500K in his first quarter, after his belated decision to come back for his old job; he only has $335K CoH, though. Democratic opponent Doug Pike raised $225K but has $1.2 million CoH. (No word yet from his primary opponent, Manan Trivedi.)

• PA-07: Republican ex-US Attorney Pat Meehan continues to have a fundraising edge over Democratic state Rep. Bryan Lentz in the open seat in the 7th; Meehan raised $340K and has $855K CoH, while Lentz raised $235K and has $610K CoH.

• PA-08: Ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick put up showy numbers a few days ago in his quest to get his seat back, but Rep. Patrick Murphy surpassed Fitzpatrick’s $510K. Murphy raised $586K and has $1.3 million CoH.

• PA-11: Finally, in Pennsylvania, Rep. Paul Kanjorski had a decent quarter, raising $260K (less than Lou Barletta’s $300K, but Kanjo has a mammoth CoH advantage, sitting on $1.2 million. Kanjorski’s Democratic primary rival Corey O’Brien has quite the burn rate: he raised $115K this quarter, but has only $47K CoH.

• Teabaggers: The Tea Party Express also issued a full target list today (no gun sights on their districts, though), and as befits their role as the corporate arm of the teabaggers, their goals aren’t that much different from those of the NRSC and NRCC. Top targets are (with the odd toss-in exception of Barney Frank) just the usual names considered most likely to lose, making it easy for them to claim they claimed some scalps come November: Harry Reid, Blanche Lincoln, Betsy Markey, Tom Perriello, and so on. They also list some heroes, and in the interest of bipartisan cover, they actually included a Democrat. In what’s not a surprise, it was ID-01’s Walt Minnick. (Wouldn’t it be ironic if their endorsement actually helped Minnick, likely to face a very close race this year, squeak by?) Also, on the teabagger front, Some Dude over at Salon looks at Tea Partier demographics and the roots of their resentments.

CT-Sen: It looks like Dick Blumenthal, who hasn’t run a competitive race in 20 years, has a lot of rust to shed on the campaign trail. An NYT article paints an unflattering portrait of Blumenthal’s political skills, describing his long-winded and legalistic answers to simple questions, and a flop in a debate against an unknown primary opponent. (Please tell me why Blumenthal’s campaign team consented to a debate against Merrick Alpert in the first place?) None of this is making me feel very good.

KY-Sen: Heh – from the king of fuck-yous comes a final hurrah: Retiring Sen. Jim Bunning is endorsing weirdo Rand Paul in the Republican primary to succeed him, snubbing establishment pick Trey Grayson. Considering that Bunning was shoved aside very much against his will to make way for Grayson, this last knife-twist makes sense.

NY-Sen-B: Here’s one clear reason why Kirsten Gillibrand has scared off legions of opponents, including George Pataki: She raked in another $1.6 million in the first quarter, bringing her total raised since she became a senator to $8.8 million. No word on her cash-on-hand yet, though.

OH-Sen: Dem Lee Fisher’s Q1 haul doesn’t look too pretty – just $550K, and with only $1.8 million on hand, and his warchest will undoubtedly shrink heading into his primary with SoS Jennifer Brunner (Fisher just went up with an introductory TV ad). For her part, Brunner hasn’t released her numbers yet. (GOPer Rob Portman has $7.6 million on hand.)

FL-Gov: Yowza. Republican rich guy Rick Scott, who appeared on the gubernatorial scene out of nowhere just days ago, says he’ll spend $1.5 million of his own money on a statewide TV and radio ad buy this week. Is he trying to Meg Whitman his way into contention?

PA-12: The NRCC has spent another $50K on media on behalf of Tim Burns. The D-Trip hasn’t laid out any cash here yet.

TN-08: We noted in a previous digest that Rob Kirkland has been filing independent expenditures on behalf of his brother, Ron Kirkland, who is in the midst of a competitive GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner. The two claim they are no longer communicating (if they did, they’d be violating the no-coordination rules required for IEs), but a local attorney (who is supporting another campaign, but won’t tell which) says he doesn’t buy it and has filed a complaint with the FEC.

WATN?: This is very good news: President Obama has nominated former Rep. Don Cazayoux to be U.S. Attorney for the Middle District of Louisiana. Here’s hoping he is swiftly confirmed. Cazayoux is only 46, so this post would put him in great position to stage a return to electoral politics some day, if he so chooses.

• CO-Sen: The nomination process in Colorado has worked its way up to the county-level assemblies now, and former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff still has an edge over appointed incumbent Michael Bennet in the race for Democratic Senate primary delegates. Romanoff has a 57-42 edge over Bennet, bolstered by strong numbers in the urban Denver and El Paso Counties.

• CT-Sen: This may not turn out to be much, but it’s another drip-drip hurting Linda McMahon’s credibility. It’s been revealed that in 1989, she gave advance warning to a doctor, George Zahorian, of a pending federal investigation; Zahorian was later convicted of selling steroids to WWF wrestlers. (Only Zahorian was convicted; the government’s case against the WWF fell apart.)

• IN-Sen: Take this with as much salt as you’d like, as it’s a leak of an Indiana GOP Senate primary poll to a right-wing blog and the leak doesn’t even say which candidate’s camp it came from, let alone who the pollster is. Nevertheless, it shows a tight race between Dan Coats and John Hostettler: Coats leads 29-26, with Marlin Stutzman not to be counted out either at 18.

• MA-Sen: Here’s more evidence that Scott Brown is intent on trying to have a long career as a moderate New England Senator, rather than flaming out in half a term of teabagging glory. He said thanks but not thanks to appearing with Sarah Palin at a teabagger rally on Boston Common on Wednesday.

• OH-Sen: Another big quarter for Rob Portman, who’s started to fall behind in recent polling against his Democratic opposition but who will have a huge cash advantage over whoever his opponent is. He pulled in $2.3 million last quarter, bringing his CoH total to a ridiculous $7.6 million.

• WA-Sen: Here’s what may be a tea leaf that Dino Rossi isn’t likely to run for Senate this year: state Sen. Don Benton, who’s already in the race for the GOP and is a friend of Rossi, says “I don’t believe Dino would allow me to sacrifice my family time and my business if he was going to run for the U.S. Senate,” and “If he had serious plans, I really believe he would have told me that.” Of course, this may also be a shot across Rossi’s bow, especially since Benton also points out that his fundraising ($130K last quarter) has suffered as everyone watches Rossi instead.

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): I don’t know why so many small schools in the Northeast feel the need to have their very own polling operation, but now Muhlenberg College is getting in on the act too. Their apparently first look at the Senate race uses a likely voter model, so as you might expect, it gives a bit of a lead to Pat Toomey. Toomey leads Arlen Specter 47-40 and leads Joe Sestak 33-22 (with leaners). There’s a whole lotta undecideds in the gubernatorial race, but Tom Corbett has a clear advantage among those who’ve decided: he leads Dan Onorato 42-18, Jack Wagner 44-16, and Joe Hoffel 45-11.

• GA-Gov: Ethics questions are continuing to follow around ex-Rep. Nathan Deal even though he’s left the House now, in order to pursue his gubernatorial bid. Turns out he spent $20K from his state campaign account to pay for legal fees related to the House Ethics inquiry into his car inspection business. The state’s ethics board says it’s unclear whether or not it’s a violation, as it’s a situation they’ve never dealt with before.

• NY-Gov: With his teabag-flavored gubernatorial campaign only a few weeks old, Carl Paladino’s campaign manager is already in damage control mode, acknowledging today that, yes, his boss send out some e-mails to political and business contacts that were “off-color” and “politically incorrect.” If, by politically incorrect, you mean including an African tribal dance photo entitled “Obama Inauguration Rehearsal,” and hardcore bestiality photos.

• PA-Gov: Two House members endorsed in the Democratic governor’s primary, and given their geographical connections, neither one should be a surprise. Pittsburgh-area Rep. Mike Doyle endorsed Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, while PA-01’sBob Brady (who just happens to be chair of the Philadelphia City Democrats in his spare time) backs state Sen. Anthony Williams. Getting the Philly machine officially behind Williams, currently lagging his opponents, may help him gain a little ground on his competition.

• SC-Gov: AG Henry McMaster had a strong fundraising quarter in the race to replace Mark Sanford, pulling in $464K and sitting on $1.4 million CoH. He’s almost caught up with Rep. Gresham Barrett, who was last year’s fundraising leader; Barrett raised $427K and holds $1.5 million CoH.

• HI-01: Looks like it’s turning into the DCCC vs. everybody else in the 1st. The AFL-CIO and Longshoremen, undeterred by the D-Trip’s preferences, are both weighing into the race with mailers on behalf of Colleen Hanabusa, pointing out Ed Case’s anti-labor record.

• MI-01: More local politicians are starting to jump into the race in the 1st, with last Friday’s sudden departure of Bart Stupak. Democratic State Rep. Joel Sheltrown said he’ll get in the race (joining Connie Saltonstall, who had been challenging Stupak in the primary). One problem for Sheltrown, though, is that he’s a “troll” (i.e. from under the bridge, instead of from the Upper Peninsula, where the district’s center of gravity is). One other sorta-big-name possible contender who doesn’t quite live in the district, ex-Rep. Jim Barcia (who’s got gerrymandered out of MI-05 in 2002, dropped down to the state Senate, which he’s now term-limited out of), confirmed he wouldn’t run. Roll Call also has the names of a few other potential Dems that we haven’t mentioned yet, including state Reps. Jeff Mayes, Judy Nerat, and Steve Lindberg, and state Agriculture Director Don Koivisto. Other possible GOPers include state Sen. Jason Allen, former state Rep. Tom Casperson (who lost by a wide margin to Stupak in 2008), and former state Rep. Scott Shackleton.

• NY-24: Republican repeat challenger Richard Hanna raised $350K in the first quarter for the race against Rep. Mike Arcuri; that’s on top of the $600K he loaned himself.

• PA-04: The growing scandal surrounding the Orie family (centered on state Sen. Jane Orie, who allegedly had staff in her office working on campaign work on the state’s dime) spilled over into the 4th. Mary Beth Buchanan’s campaign manager, Kurt Acker, resigned on Friday after it came out that he was one of those Orie staffers participating in the violations.

• TN-08: Looks like we’ve got a good case of the dueling rich guys in the GOP primary in the 8th: physician Ron Kirkland is reporting $607K raised last quarter. Throw in the $250K he lent himself, and he’s already drawn almost even with Stephen Fincher, who’s already gotten the NRCC’s imprimatur based on his own fundraising.

• VA-05: Freshman Rep. Tom Perriello also put up excellent fundraising numbers this quarter, and that seems to have more to do with getting the base excited about him (with his tough vote in favor of HCR) rather than dipping into his own wallet. Perriello raised $600K in the first quarter, leaving him with $1.4 million CoH for what’s sure to be a bruising general election campaign.

• WV-01: There have been some indications that Rep. Alan Mollohan was on the outs with the West Virginia Democratic establishment (starting top-down with Gov. Bob Manchin), but here’s an interesting clue that suggests otherwise: Mollohan’s primary opponent, state Sen. Mike Oliverio, complained at a candidate forum that he’d requested registered voter files from the state committee and hadn’t received them, and he wondered if Mollohan’s influence had anything to do with that.

• Polltopia: Mark Blumenthal has some added nuance on the issue of the House generic ballot, which pundits have been pointing to lately as evidence of possible huge Republican gains in the House in November. The Gallup generic ballot poll does have some predictive value… but that’s only the final Gallup poll before the election, making it a not-terribly-reliable measure at this point in time.

• AZ-Sen: Maybe she was scared off by that R2K poll that had her down more than 20-odd points? Nan Stockholm Walden, a wealthy attorney and businesswoman who had been the subject of DSCC interest as a candidate in Arizona, decided not to run. That gives Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman a pretty clear path to the nomination (assuming he runs; he’s still in exploratory mode).

• CT-Sen: Did you know that Linda McMahon actually held (until now) a political position, in addition to, of course, all the important work she does at WWE? She was on Connecticut’s Board of Education (an appointed position, courtesy of Jodi Rell), but just resigned from that role. She says that there are too many restrictions on political activities by board members for her to be able to remain in that position, as she tries to get the GOP Senate nomination.

• SD-Sen: John Thune may have dodged having to run against a Democrat in November, but he won’t be running purely unopposed. He’s still facing off against an independent, perennial candidate Kurt Evans.

• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: I had no idea that St. Norbert was the patron saint of fucked-up polls. A poll from Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College is tilted even further in the Republican direction than recent offerings from Rasmussen and the decidedly conservative Wisconsin Policy Research Institute. They find Russ Feingold losing to Tommy Thompson 45-33 (with 14% for an independent/third party, whoever that might be), and beating Generic R by only 40-37. Their gubernatorial numbers find Tom Barrett losing to Scott Walker 44-28 and to Mark Neumann 43-29. Even the GOP primary numbers seem screwy, with underdog Neumann almost even with Walker, who leads 24-23.

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman rummaged around in her purse and found another $20 million to throw on the table, bringing her personal contributions to the race up to a whopping $59 million. Despite her big lead over Steve Poizner in the primary, she may need to prepare to shore things up, as Poizner has been telegraphing that he’s going to start going hard at her on the hot-button issue of immigration, in a last-ditch effort to get the state’s right-wingers to pay some attention to him.

• GA-12: There were some poorly sourced rumors yesterday that Rep. John Barrow — a conservadem in a swing district facing a primary challenge and the ire of a large swath of his African-American constituency after his HCR “no” vote — was going to switch parties. Barrow now says he was never even contemplating that, though.

• KS-03: After the Kansas City Star reported last week that Stephene Moore was going to run to replace her husband, Dennis, in the 3rd, she started acting coy about it (despite insider assurances that it was a done deal). As expected, though, today she made it official, filing a glaring hole in this R+3 open seat.

• LA-03: It looks like the NRCC is finally getting a top-tier participant in the open seat race in the 3rd (despite that winning it won’t be much of a prize, as the 3rd is poised to vaporize in 2012 redistricting). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer says he’ll announce his candidacy very soon. Probably the surest indication that Downer is serious is that state Rep. Nickie Monica, who may have been the strongest GOPer in the field to date, now says he’s getting out of the race to make way for Downer. With attorney Ravi Sangisetty the only Dem willing to stick his neck out for this one, this one’s pretty thoroughly in the GOP column.

• MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark has been putting up some monster fundraising numbers against Michele Bachmann this cycle; I guess that’s what happens when you run against one of the nation’s top lightning rods for teh crazy. She pulled in $505K last quarter, bringing her to $1.1 million in total receipts this cycle. Unfortunately, Clark (or her primary opponent Maureen Reed, who’s also raised well but hasn’t released Q1 numbers yet) will likely have to contend with the presence of spoiler Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson. Anderson pulled in 10% of the vote in 2008 (while Elwyn Tinklenberg lost by only 3%), and he’s seeking the IP’s endorsement again.

• NH-01: RNC committee member Sean Mahoney made a big show out of resigning his post, ostensibly out of disgust with the Michael Steele administration and its free-spending, strip-clubbing ways. Speculation, though, is that Mahoney is planning to run in the GOP primary in the 1st (where Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is considered frontrunner, although so-so fundraising has diminished his luster a bit), which would require him to resign anyway. Mahoney isn’t promising anything on that front yet, though.

• NY-29: The Democrats have literally chosen Some Dude as their standard bearer in the 29th. The party chairs in the eight counties in the district issued a statement where they said they’ve chosen a consensus nominee to replace Eric Massa in the special election that may or may not happen. However, they neglected to actually say who that candidate might be. We’ll know the masked man’s identity next week.

• TN-03: A Huck divided against itself cannot stand? In a prime example of one hand not knowing what the other is doing, HuckPAC (Mike Huckabee’s national financial arm) and Team Huck Tennessee (the local grassroots operation) are endorsing different candidates in the GOP primary in the 3rd. Team Huck is endorsing former state GOP chair Robin Smith, while HuckPAC (and presumably, Huckabee himself) is going with attorney Chuck Fleischmann.

• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron had another fine fundraising quarter as he tries to keep this open seat in Democratic hands; he pulled in $490K last quarter, leaving him with more than $1 million cash on hand. It’s not an expensive district, media-wise, but he has some strong fundraising competition from humble gospel-singing farmer agribusiness mogul Stephen Fincher, who pulled in over $300K himself and is sitting on $820K CoH.

• PA-St. Sen.: As if the Pennsylvania legislature couldn’t be held in any lower esteem, here’s another fresh scandal. Luckily, this one seems to be falling on the Republican side of the aisle: state Sen. Jane Orie, the body’s third-ranking GOPer, was just accused by a grand jury of repeatedly using her staff for political campaigns on the state’s dime (include the campaign of her sister, state Supreme Court justice Joan Orie Melvin). Charges are expected, but Orie is shrugging it off, saying it’s a politically motivated smear by Democratic Allegheny Co. DA Stephen Zappala.

• Filings: The filing deadline in Missouri has passed, on March 30. Rep. Roy Blunt wound up with (count ’em) 10 Republican primary opponents in the Senate race, although state Sen. Chuck Purgason seems the only one worth paying attention to. The number of GOPers vying to take on Ike Skelton in MO-04 also reached the double digits. Probably the biggest surprise and disappointment was in MO-09: not that the DCCC would likely have strongly contested this district that they barely lost in 2008 when it was open, but not a single Democrat showed up to run in this race.

• Teabaggers: Here’s a nice catch from Ruy Teixeira: teabagging is about as popular as socialism. In slightly-differently-worded questions from two different 2010 polls, Gallup found that 37% had a favorable opinion of “the Tea Party movement” (including 14% of Democrats), while 36% had a positive image of “socialism” (including 17% of Republicans?!?).

The daily digest is so hunormous today that we had to CHOP IT IN HALF!

AR-Sen: Chris Cillizza’s incredibly annoying Mr. Rogers wallpaper tweets that Bill Halter raised $2 million in his first month on the trail.

AZ-Sen: This Roll Call piece has some interesting tidbits about the nascent Democratic (yes, Democratic) primary in the Arizona senate race. Tucson city councilman Rodney Glassman is all but running, and he has some personal wealth due to his family’s farming business. He also has the backing of Rep. Raul Grijalva (Glassman was once a Grijalva aide). Some other Dems, however, are talking up the potential candidacy of Nan Stockholm Walden, who is also wealthy and is a well-connected Democratic donor. The knock on Glassman is that he’s young and inexperienced; the knock on Walden is that she was a registered lobbyist for several years. Glassman says he’ll run no matter what Walden decides, and I think a primary here could actually be helpful if it stays clean.

On the GOP side of things, John McCain says he raised $2.2 million in the first quarter and has $4.5m on hand. Primary opponent J.D. Hayworth, meanwhile, seems like he hasn’t been doing quite so hot on the money front.

CA-Sen: A whiff of extra-special dumb: Carly Fiorina sent around an email to supporters describing Passover as a time to “break bread.” Of course, the one thing that Jews don’t eat on Passover is… bread. Trying to wiggle their way out of this one, a staffer tells TWI: “We meant all bread, leavened and unleavened, and matzo is just unleavened bread so that’s what we meant by that.” That still doesn’t work.

CT-Sen: GOP hopeful Linda McMahon is taking heat from opponent and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons for her $10,000 donation to the DCCC in 2006. Not only should this make McMahon suspect to Republicans, argues Simmons, but he seems to be tying that donation to the fact that he himself lost in 2006, perhaps nudged out the door by McMahon’s very own cash. (Considering Simmons came up just 83 votes short, he may have a point.)

FL-Sen: The joke is that when the New York Times finally gets to writing about a hitherto underground phenomenon (steampunk, miracle fruit, etc.), that’s the moment it becomes mainstream and therefore loses its cool. Marco Rubio’s “NYT moment” happened months ago, so anyone endorsing him at this late stage is about as cool as your mom using Facebook. Welcome to the club, Sen. Tom Coburn. Meanwhile, Charlie Crist’s old buddy, former FL GOP chair Jim Greer, is under criminal investigation for some sort of self-dealing.

KY-Sen: I think this is where Paulists probably part ways from teabaggers: Rand Paul thinks the government “shouldn’t be involved” in requiring people to wear seat belts. Not really sure ultra-libertarian whackness like this plays too well in most quarters. Please, please let this guy win the GOP primary. Incidentally, Paul says he’s raised $600K in the last quarter (lower than I would have thought), but also says he’s spent almost all of it. Apparently, though, he’s pre-paid for “the next six weeks of activity” (until the primary), perhaps locking in lower rates on things like TV ads.

MO-Sen: One last odd-n-end from PPP’s MO-Sen poll: Roy Blunt is under 50% against his unknown GOP primary challenger, Chuck Purgason – he leads 48-18. Purgason’s favorables are just 7-9 (not a typo), so obviously there’s a chunk of Republicans out there who just hate Blunt.

NC-Sen: Former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt will endorse attorney Ken Lewis, who is seeking the Dem senate nomination. Gantt himself ran for the Senate twice, losing two close races to the unthinkably odious Jesse Helms. Meanwhile, GOP Sen. Richard Burr says he’s raised $1.4 million in the first quarter and is sitting on a $5.3 mil warchest. No word yet on any of the Dems.

TX-Sen: It looks we will have Kay Bailey Hutchison to kick around some more – for at least the next two years. She announced yesterday that she’ll serve out the remainder of her term, which ends in 2012. I wouldn’t be surprised if she subsequently changed her mind (at least, after this November), but for now, that means TX-Sen comes off our “Races to Watch” list.

WI-Sen: Richie rich Terrence Wall says he’ll stay in the GOP primary even if ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson gets in. Wall had kind words for Thompson, and also thanked him for drawing Democratic fire, but it sounds like Wall wants to present himself as the “true conservative” option.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is the latest moron-American to jump onto the “healthcare reform is unconstitutional” bandwagon, agreeing wholeheartedly with a supporter who asked at a campaign event if she would “force your attorney general to file suit” against the legislation. (Of course, CA’s governor can do no such thing.) I really can’t wait until these idiots get punked out of court.

PA-Gov: Some fundraising numbers from some of the big players in Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race – click the link for details. One of them, Dan Onorato, is up on the air with his first TV ads. No exact word on the size of the buy, but supposedly the ads are in “heavy rotation around the state,” which could cost $1 million.