Tag: SSP 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings

Rasmussen (9/27, likely voters):

Terry Goddard (D): 42

Jan Brewer (R-inc): 35

Some other: 13

Not sure: 11

Terry Goddard (D): 44

Fife Symington (R): 37

Some other: 9

Not sure: 10

(MoE: ±4.5%)

It’s becoming very clear that Democrats have a good shot at a pickup in the Arizona governor’s race, where appointed Republican governor Jan Brewer is struggling, both in her own primary and against Democratic AG Terry Goddard. Last week’s PPP poll giving a big edge to Goddard (beating Brewer by 10 and Symington by 23) seemed fluky at the time, but now Rasmussen is out with numbers almost as good. Now that Brewer’s seeming weakness has been thoroughly quantified, we’re moving this race to “Tossup.”

Rasmussen finds Brewer laboring under a 37/57 job approval and 42/54 favorable. Compounding her situation, Brewer couldn’t have helped herself with remarks last week dissing Phoenix (calling it a “hell hole”), where most of the state’s voters are, while at a Tucson appearance. Convicted-then-pardoned ex-Gov. Fife Symington, inexplicably looking for a comeback, fares even worse at 36/54 favorable, while Goddard is at 54/38. (Rasmussen doesn’t test state Treasurer Dean Martin, who also seems a likely GOP primary opponent to Brewer.)

RaceTracker: AZ-Gov

SSP is changing its ratings on eight Senate and gubernatorial races:

• AR-Sen: Safe D to Likely D
• CA-Sen: Safe D to RTW
• CO-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Gov: RTW to Likely D
• MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
• NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup
• NY-Sen-B: Safe D to RTW
• WI-Gov: Lean D to Tossup

We’ll be posting full write-ups for these changes soon. Our full race ratings charts: Gov | Sen.

Well, ain’t this a surprise:

Douglas, midway through his fourth term, will hold a news conference at 11 a.m. in the Governor’s Ceremonial Office in the Statehouse.

Multiple Republican sources have said the governor has decided against running for a fifth two-year term.

Douglas met with his staff and with cabinet members at 10 a.m. Member of the administration now are making their way to the Statehouse for the 11 a.m. announcement.

Douglas perfected the knack of survival in this deep blue liberal state, but he was already drawing some decent challengers — state Sen. Doug Racine (a former Lt. Governor who lost a gubernatorial race to Douglas by two points in 2002), state Sen. Susan Bartlett, and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz. In his announcement (which is streaming live right now), Douglas says that he won’t run for the Senate or the House in 2010, and he’ll serve out the remainder of his term.

Republicans will likely turn to the next biggest name on their bench to take over in 2010 — sitting Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who, somewhat amazingly, has also managed to win his office on his own right since 2002.

UPDATE (Crisitunity): With this decision, Swing State Project is changing our rating of this race to “Tossup.” Given the state’s decidedly blue hue, “Lean Democratic” wouldn’t be out of the question, but Dubie is no slouch and we are intensely aware of the capacity of the Progressives in Vermont to screw things up for Democrats. If it’s clear that Anthony Pollina won’t get in the race this time, we will feel more confident about Dems’ chances.

RaceTracker Wiki: VT-Gov

Our latest moves:

CT-Sen (Dodd): Lean D to Tossup

Chris Dodd may have received a bit of good news lately on the Countrywide mortgage fiasco (the Senate Ethics Committee cleared him of any wrongdoing and the Hartford Courant’s editorial page recently came to his defense on the matter, saying that there was no there there), but it really remains to be seen whether or not the damage done to his reputation can reverse itself. The most recent Q-Poll has ex-Rep. Rob Simmons beating Dodd by a 48-39 margin; if an incumbent under 50 is in an ugly situation, an incumbent under 40 is in seriously dangerous waters. While we’ve held out hope that Dodd can correct his course, he doesn’t seem to be doing any better than running in place. His best hope right now may be for an extremely expensive, nasty Republican primary.

Of course, with the recent news that Dodd is undergoing treatment for prostate cancer, it’s possible that he may choose to retire, in which case this race will be turned upside-down yet again. (J)

IL-Sen (Open): Likely D to Lean D

It’s difficult to imagine Barack Obama’s home state voting to put a check on the White House’s power next year, but with Rep. Mark Kirk making his candidacy official and popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan taking a pass on the race, the GOP has about as good of a shot as they’re gonna get. Yes, Kirk didn’t exactly have the smoothest launch possible, but his most recent Twitterfail isn’t the kind of stuff that will sear itself into anyone’s lasting memory besides the most diehard of newsjunkies. What he does bring to the table, though, is the resume of a battle-hardened incumbent who has performed the rare feat of surviving in a Dem-leaning district since 2000.

The likely Democratic nominee, on the other hand, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, is bringing some baggage to the table in the form of his family’s bank loans to convicted felons and his unsuccessful overhaul of the state’s college investment program — a fund that lost $85 million under Giannoulias’ watch. Giannoulias touts his ties to Barack Obama at every possible moment, but it remains to be seen whether Obama, who is notoriously squeamish when it comes to campaigning for fellow Democrats, will come to his aid anytime soon.

Of course, the news that Roland Burris may be reconsidering his decision to retire doesn’t help things out in the least. The sheer power of Illinois’ blue slant is the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column. (J)

MA-Gov (Patrick): Likely D to Lean D

Deval Patrick’s approval ratings are bad even by the standards of most other governors in northeast and Rust Belt states. On top of that, a recent Boston Globe poll shows Patrick narrowly trailing both of his prospective Republican opponents. This poll is also likely to encourage Democrat-turned-Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill to get into the race. The good news for Democrats is that Cahill seems to sop up most of the Democratic anti-Patrick protest votes that were going to the Republicans. The bad news for Patrick, in particular, though, is that there are just so many protest votes that it’s plausible Cahill could ride them to victory. It’s entirely possible that, a year from now, we could have two “Lean I” races on our board (here and in Rhode Island). (C)

Quinnipiac University (7/8-12, likely voters, 6/3-8 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (40)

Chris Christie (R): 53 (50)

Undecided: 6 (9)

(MoE: ±2.5%)

Optimists like to point out that New Jersey seems to hate all its politicians, but hates Republicans a little bit more. This would explain why the Garden State GOP hasn’t won a single statewide race since 1997, and hasn’t won by more than a single percentage point since 1985. So it’s certainly tempting to think that Jon Corzine might sweat this one out like so many of his Democratic predecessors have.

But this race simply feels different. In particular, the economy – and the deep unhappiness it engenders – weighs more heavily than at almost any time in recent or even distant memory. The traditional unemployment rate is almost 9% in Jersey. Broader measures like the U6 are much worse. Painful budget cuts have been made. And Corzine has also stumbled on his own, like with his series of failed plans involving the always-sensitive issue of turnpike tolls. Like it or not – fair or not – the folks in power get blamed when things go to hell. If you’re a guy like Jon Corzine, who didn’t start off with high approvals and goodwill to burn, it puts you in a very precarious spot.

Ordinarily, we don’t like to move races with unindicted incumbents past “Tossup.” But there’s nothing ordinary about 2009, or these poll numbers:

If you want to see what a classic “Jersey Dem sweats one out” race looks like, check out this chart of Bob Menendez vs. Tom Kean, Jr. from 2006 (turn off “poll results” to better see the trendlines):

Sure, Menendez definitely started perspiring a bit  in September, but he never spent months lagging by double digits. He also benefitted from a good economy and a huge Democratic wave – and he wasn’t an incumbent with anemic favorables.

Back in 2009, things have picked up somewhat for Corzine in recent months, but his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, has also steadily improved. And the other internals on this Q-poll are a lot more worrying. Corzine’s job approval is at its lowest ever (33-60), his attacks on Christie for being close to Bush don’t resonate at all with voters (only 10% call it a “fair criticism”), and the state legislature “generic ballot” is a virtual tie at 45D-43R (in a state where Dems otherwise hold wide margins in the lege).

This, of course, is just one poll – but pick apart any survey and you’ll find plenty of bad news. The fact that Corzine leaked an internal allegedly showing him at 38% is perhaps most disturbing of all. Is this supposed to constitute good news? (The fact that no one’s seen the full memo is also telling.)

We’re also pretty troubled by word that Corzine might tap a reality TV star (yes, you read that right) for the newly-created post of Lieutenant Governor. This is beyond bizarre, and is reminiscent of John McCain picking Sarah Palin as his number two. Let’s pray Corzine doesn’t go this route – but it’s not a heartening sign that he’s considering something so gimmicky when he should be picking someone experienced and fit to succeed him if need be.

The one genuinely positive event on the horizon is the rally Obama is doing with Corzine on Thursday. But that’s just a one-time event, and given how parsimoniously the President spends his political captial, I doubt Obama’s going to attach himself to Corzine at the hip and drag him across the finish line in November.

As I say, this isn’t a move we make lightly, but nonetheless we’re changing the rating on NJ-Gov to “Lean Republican.” This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.

• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we’re downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren’t reacting to any one recent event (the only two polls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.

• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here’s some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she’s now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities… which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.

• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP’s Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state’s Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.

• MO-Sen: In the “did he really just say that file?” Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it “distorts the marketplace.” Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!

• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be “on the table” and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada — Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller — it’s time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there’s a certain pot/kettle thing going on).

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a “flagrant hypocrite” for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm… remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can’t help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They’ve been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she’s almost as conservative as Toomey, so it’s not clear what benefit that would provide).

• AK-Gov: Guess who’s saying “thanks but no thanks” to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who’d like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World’s Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan‘s authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.

• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor’s race and asking “is that all there is?” a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he’d be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).

• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.

• NY-23: Don’t count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn’t made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he’ll have, now that the Senate is back to “normal”).

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.

• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he’d been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver’s seat for the next mayoral election.

• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/6-8, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44

John Kasich (R): 39

Undecided: 17

(MoE: ±4%)

R2K is now the third straight pollster to peg Strickland in the mid-to-low 40s, apparently solving the OH-Gov polling mystery. This is not a pretty chart:

One important thing to note, though: R2K has Obama’s favorables at 59-35 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac pegs them at 49-44. R2K is probably the outlier, though, as the two firms show similar favorables for Strickland, and Q’s job approval numbers for Obama now match up with PPP’s.

As a result of this recent nosedive, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on OH-Gov from Likely Dem to Lean Dem. Of course, it’s early; if Strickland can pull out of this tailspin, then we’ll be ready to adjust our rating once again as needed.

R2K also looked at the Senate race:

Lee Fisher (D): 22

Jennifer Brunner (D): 17

Undecided: 61

(MoE: ±5%)

Lee Fisher (D): 42

Rob Portman (R): 35

Undecided: 23

Jennifer Brunner (D): 40

Rob Portman (R): 36

Undecided: 24

(MoE: ±4%)

These numbers are very similar to those shown by Quinnipiac and PPP.

RaceTracker: OH-Gov | OH-Sen

The Swing State Project is changing ratings on five different gubernatorial races, three of which favor Dems and two of which favor the GOP. We’re also republishing our full race rating chart. As always, you can find our perma-post here.

Races to Watch:

     AK (Palin)

     CT (Rell)

     IA (Culver)

     IL (Quinn)

     NY (Paterson)

     TX (Perry)

     UT (Herbert)

     VT (Douglas)

Georgia (Open): Likely R to Lean R

With former Gov. Roy Barnes’ entrance into the race, this contest just became very interesting. Two different surveys (Insider Advantage and Research 2000) have shown Barnes in a good position against a range of possible Republican candidates. Barnes first has to navigate the Dem primary (where Attorney General Thurbert Baker & House Minority Leader DuBose Porter present formidable obstacles), though the only primary poll to date shows him with a big lead, and he may yet clear the field. This race is likely to become more competitive rather than less so as time progresses.

Iowa (Culver): Safe D to RTW

While we haven’t seen any head-to-head polling in Iowa yet this year, Gov. Chet Culver’s approvals have started to head southward, according to both SurveyUSA and the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to have netted a relatively non-crazy candidate, former state House Speaker Chris Rants. Are we really worried about Culver’s prospects? No – or at least, not yet. But with so many incumbent governors taking scorching heat for the brutal economy, this race bears watching.

Massachusetts (Patrick): RTW to Likely D

Most other folks with poll numbers as lousy as Deval Patrick’s would be in a lot more trouble than this. Luckily, he’s running for re-election in Massachusetts. Still, Kwik-E-Mart magnate Christy Mihos, who garnered 7% of the vote as an independent in 2006, is seeking a rematch, and he got more money than Picasso got paint. It’s enough to give Patrick serious headaches.

Minnesota (Open): Lean R to Tossup

Even if Tim Pawlenty had decided to seek re-election, this race likely would have reached Tossup status at some point. But with T-Paw busy checking out the color of his parachute, the timetable’s accelerated. The field is very much in flux on both sides, but if anything, Dems will have a slight edge just given the blue background hue of this state.

Vermont (Douglas): Safe R to RTW

We aren’t getting excited about the possibility of chucking out Republican Jim Douglas just yet. But the Dems have a better slate of potential candidates (including Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz) than they have in the past, and Douglas is facing his first election in hard times. He’s started to get dinged on some local issues, and of course had a high-profile defeat on gay marriage. And a January R2K poll showed him with a not-so-hot 52-41 approval rating. The key here will be Vermont’s left-wing Progressive Party; if they hold their fire, then a Democrat could do some real damage.

One consequence of Gov. Jon Huntsman’s sudden decision to accept Barack Obama’s offer of the position of Ambassador to China is that the newly-promoted governor, current Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert, will need to face the voters in 2010. Huntsman’s term would have taken him through 2012, but Utah law is such that a replacement Governor newly elevated in a term’s first year faces a special election at the next regularly scheduled general election. (Remember, Huntsman was just re-elected in 2008.)

Herbert seems to be giving every indication that he will not be a placeholder and run for re-election in 2010 (for the remaining two years of the term; if he won, he’d still have to run again in the regularly-scheduled 2012 election if he wanted a full term). However, history may not be on his side. Lt. Gov. Olene Walker took over as Utah Governor in 2003 after Mike Leavitt became the Bush-era EPA Administrator, but because of Utah’s weird nominating procedures (previously discussed here), she didn’t even make it into the primary for her 2004 re-election, finishing third at the convention. (The top two finishers at the nominating convention advance to the primary, unless one candidate receives more than 60% at the convention, in which case he or she moves straight to the general.)

Herbert does not sound as out-of-step with activist base that dominates the nominating conventions as the somewhat moderate Walker, so he may still survive. He may still face some top-shelf competition, starting with AG Mark Shurtleff, last seen screwing up the announcement of his Senate primary candidacy against Bob Bennett via Twitter. Although Shurtleff is rumored be “Senate or bust,” he may be tempted to run against the less-known Herbert rather than longtime institution Bennett. (Another Bennett challenger, Tim Bridgewater, may be also interested in swapping races.)

There’s also the possibility that a decent Democrat might be more attracted to a chaotic, off-year gubernatorial election. That probably wouldn’t include Rep. Jim Matheson (who’d still have to give up his seat in 2010 to run), but it could include Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon or Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker, who could run without giving up their current seats. While Swing State Project is skeptical of any Democrats’ chances in this race (it is, after all, Utah), there is enough fluidity here, especially on the GOP side, for us to add this as a “Race to Watch” to our 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings.

UPDATE (James): The Salt Lake Tribune touched bases with both Corroon and Jim Matheson, and they both are refusing to rule anything out:

A run for governor “is certainly not something I was planning for,” said Corroon, who “would never say never.” He says his “intent” is to finish his second term as Salt Lake County mayor.

Matheson says he will weigh his options. “In politics you always look at your opportunities,” he said, “and that’s what I always do.”

In a statement:

Today, I’m announcing I will be a candidate for Governor of Florida in the November 2010 election, and put my business experience and know-how to work restoring our economy.

This is great news for Florida Dems – this seat instantly rockets to the top of our big-state pickup lists. As such, the Swing State Project is moving this from a Safe R “Race to Watch” to Tossup.