Tag: SSP 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on two Senate and two gubernatorial races. Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

IN-Sen (Open): Safe D to Tossup

SSP was reluctant to change its rating on this race when Dan Coats announced, in part because he started off hedging about his intentions, and in part because the DSCC landed so many solid hits on him in such a short time, we could plausibly believe he might reconsider his decision to un-retire. Now, of course, we’re waiting for the dust to settle from Evan Bayh’s collossal retirement announcement. Dems have a good shot at retaining this seat, especially if they nominate someone like Rep. Brad Ellsworth. But until we know more about who either party’s nominees will be, the future is too hazy to rate this race as anything other than a Tossup. (D)

WA-Sen (Murray): Safe D to RTW

Optimistic Republicans seem to be reading a lot into Dino Rossi’s three words regarding this race: “Never say never.” (While ignoring the statement from the same article that he has “no plans to run for any office at this point.”) The two-time gubernatorial loser has disassembled the campaign apparatus he had in place between 2004 and 2008, and returned to the private sector – but who knows. With enough encouragement from the NRSC, and from folks like Rasmussen (who gave him a 2-point lead against Patty Murray), he might feel motivated to give it one last shot. Murray is a more likable and better-funded figure than Chris Gregoire (who beat Rossi twice), but with the possibility of a Rossi (or Rep. Dave Reichert, although that’s unlikely too) entry, we’ll need to keep one eye on this race. (C)

Gubernatorial races:

IA-Gov (Culver): Tossup to Lean R

Man, it’s hard out there for a gov. Chet Culver was looking pretty good for much of last year, especially since he faced a mostly third-tier crowd of wannabes. But along came former Gov. Terry Branstad looking for his old job back, which drastically changed the equation. Branstad’s long and somewhat rocky tenure doesn’t seem to have hurt him, but all-too-familiar economic woes seem to be pounding Culver, along with so many other incumbent governors. The polls have been especially unkind to him. If it were just Rasmussen showing him down big, we’d be slower on the trigger. But respected pollster Selzer & Co. has now pegged Culver at twenty points behind in two consecutive surveys. That’s brutal, deep hole, which makes this race Lean R. (D)

TX-Gov (Perry): Likely R to Lean R

Despite a national headwind that can only be described as atrocious, Democrats appear to have their best shot at winning back the Governor’s mansion in Texas in over a decade. A series of new polls have placed incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the precarious position of facing a possible run-off after the state’s March 2nd primary. A run-off would tack on another five weeks to the primary process and would drain the GOP of even more resources. Meanwhile, former Houston Mayor Bill White has been raising money at a prodigious clip and trails Perry by only mid-single digits in many recent polls. There’s no question that Republicans still hold a clear edge in a state as red as this, but White has pushed this race into a more competitive stratum. (J)

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Tossup to Lean R

Rep. John Boozman officially entered the Arkansas Senate race this weekend. While he had telegraphed this for weeks, his official entry means that there’s finally a top-tier candidate for the Republicans. This race was a tossup even with a grab-bag of state legislators and self-funders, thanks to the Democratic brand’s decay in Arkansas and Blanche Lincoln’s play-it-down-the-middle-and-appeal-to-nobody approach. Two polls this week gave Boozman a lead over Lincoln in the 20-point ballpark, though, indicating that a stronger Republican probably pushes this one out of Lincoln’s grasp.

Boozman will still have to fight his way out of the crowded GOP primary — state Sen. Gilbert Baker and businessman Curtis Coleman aren’t getting out of the way (although some of the lesser opposition, like Tom Cox and Buddy Rogers, have bailed out), and Boozman’s long House tenure may be a liability in an anti-incumbent, anti-establishment year. His base in the state’s dark-red northwest will probably see him through the primary, though.

IL-Gov (Quinn): Likely D to Tossup

It’s a bit of a surprise that Pat Quinn survived the primary election, as the primary campaign revealed he had something of a glass jaw, and the last few polls of the race showed him with terrible approval ratings and getting edged by challenger Dan Hynes. It’s never a good sign to have a bloody, depleted victor staggering out of a barely-won primary, and his problems are compounded by general anti-incumbent fervor and bad economic conditions in the Rust Belt, which is enough for us to move this race all the way up to Tossup.

Still, there are a few things that Quinn has in his favor: he has an extremely long period (nine months) to rehabilitate himself, while the Republicans won’t even have a nominee for a while, and most likely it’ll be Bill Brady — while Illinois throughout the 80s and 90s was happy to elect moderate, suburban Republicans to statewide office, it remains to be seen whether a socially conservative downstate resident can get over the hump. Finally, the Scott Lee Cohen sideshow quickly and suitably resolved itself this weekend, leaving the state party to pick a more appealing running mate… although, after some initial lukewarm interest, Hynes has now taken his name out of consideration for a unity ticket.

You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

RaceTracker Wiki: AR-Sen | IL-Gov

Dan Jones & Associates for Deseret News/KSL-TV (1/12-13, adults, 11/19-23 in parens):

Peter Corroon (D): 35 (32)

Gary Herbert (R-inc): 48 (56)

(MoE: ±5%)

In a state with a pretty limited Democratic bench, the recent entry of Peter Corroon in the gubernatorial race is a huge boon for Utah Democrats. Corroon isn’t just another sacrificial lamb that Utah Dems have become accustomed to running against entrenched incumbents — he’s the mayor of Salt Lake County, which is home to more than a third of the state’s population. While it goes without saying that this will be a challenging race, Corroon at least gives Democrats a fighting chance here, especially if some of the same budgetary problems facing many of the other beleaguered governors begin to take a toll on the freshly-minted Gov. Gary Hebert. SSP is changing its rating of this race from the sub-competitive Races to Watch to the more competitive category of Likely Republican.

RaceTracker Wiki: UT-Gov

The Swing State Project recently announced changes to ten race ratings. Since then, we’ve added three more races to the list (MA-Sen, IL-Gov & OH-Gov). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Lean D to Tossup

With Chris Dodd out of the picture, conventional wisdom is starting to coalesce around Blanche Lincoln as the Democrats’ most vulnerable Senate incumbent. She has a few things still in her favor: a sizable warchest, a 2010 ballot shared with popular Dem governor Mike Beebe, and most importantly, no top-tier opponents – just a grab-bag of Republican odds and ends in a state with little GOP bench (with state Sen. Gilbert Baker the main contender).

However, the decline in Democratic fortunes over the last few years was perhaps most precipitous of all states in Arkansas, and some of that has rubbed off on Lincoln. She’s trailing even her weaker Republican opponents according to Rasmussen, while other pollsters find the Lincoln/Baker matchup a dead heat. Her conservative positioning on health care has fizzled, having served only to enrage her base while winning her no new fans on the righ. Lincoln, who may also face a primary challenge from Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, has little time left to right her capsizing ship. (C)

AZ-Sen (McCain): Safe R to RTW

Former Rep. J. D. Hayworth has put this once-sleepy race on the map. Hayworth, a bull-headed conservative, has been making noises about challenging John McCain in the Republican primary, recently saying that he’s “testing the waters” for a potential bid. Even though the allegedly Mavericky McCain pretty much dropped all pretense of having anything in common with Democrats once he began his presidential run, somehow he’s still mistrusted by the right. When the tribe speaks, it may well be McCain who gets voted off the island.

Sadly, Democrats don’t really have anyone who could capitalize on a potential Hayworth coup. The only announced candidate is one Rudy Garcia, former mayor of the town of Bell Gardens (pop. 45,000). Not so helpfully, Bell Gardens is in California. This race seems ripe for a young up-and-comer looking to raise his or her profile – no one will blame you for losing to John McCain, and hey, you might get a chance to take on Hayworth instead. Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman, who has formed an exploratory committee, might fit the bill. It’ll be a while yet before we know if Team Blue can make any waves here, though. (D)

CO-Sen (Bennet): Lean D to Tossup

Michael Bennet, the former Denver schools superintendent appointed to fill the vacant Senate seat, has had a year to introduce himself to his constituents and still doesn’t seem to have made much of an impression. Bennet may be well-connected and a monster fundraiser, but he seems a little short on charisma and retail politicking talent. For a while this year, he seemed safe simply by virtue of having third-tier opposition, but with the entry of former Republican Lt. Governor Jane Norton this summer, he’s facing a competitive race. And things are complicated by a primary challenge from former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff, although Romanoff has seemed lately to struggle to get any traction (and may even change over to the now-open gubernatorial race).

It’s hard to get a handle on this contest, as only Rasmussen has been polling it lately. They’ve been finding leads over both Bennet and Romanoff for Norton and some of the Republicans’ lesser lights as well. The Democrats’ decline in Colorado this year has been across the boards (affecting Obama approvals and Gov. Bill Ritter), and that seems to be hampering the blank-slate-ish Bennet as well. One item in Bennet’s favor, though, is that the withdrawal of the unpopular Ritter and a potential upgrade to the better-liked John Hickenlooper may help pull him across the finish line in November. (C)

IA-Sen (Grassley): RTW to Likely R

Chuck Grassley is a seemingly entrenched, allegedly sometimes “moderate” Republican, sitting on a decent ($4.4 mil) pile of cash in a state which has elected him five times – in other words, a tough nut to crack. Dems did a good job landing a very credible candidate, though – former gubernatorial candidate and super-lawyer Roxanne Conlin. Conlin is personally wealthy and, as one-time president of the Association of Trial Lawyers of America, she ought to have good connections to other well-to-do attorneys. We’ll be watching her fourth-quarter fundraising reports very closely.

Meanwhile, Grassley’s approval ratings – which typically were sky-high for most of his career – have slipped in recent months. He’s still the heavy favorite here, and Conlin has a lot of work to do. But this race is now officially on the map. (D)

IL-Sen (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Democratic front-runner Alexi Giannoulias’s baggage is well-known at this point, so there’s no need for us to rehash his troubles here. Suffice it to say we’re concerned that the battle-hardened GOP Rep. Mark Kirk can exploit these weaknesses in a general election. Democratic internal polling (from primary opponent David Hoffman and from Giannoulias’ own pollster) has placed Giannoulias either down or up on Kirk by a scant three points. This suggests to us that Giannoulias can’t count on the usual generous margin of error that this Dem-leaning state has given to the likes of Rod Blagojevich in the past.

It’s still possible that Hoffman or Cheryle Jackson could win the Democratic nomination, but the primary is less than a month away, and an upset seems unlikely. At the same time, any chance that teabagger Patrick Hughes might ding up Kirk are mostly evaporating, given the short time left. Still, the general election is a long ways off, and a well-disciplined campaign could dispel our doubts. But for now, it’s too difficult to give the Democratic field the edge. (J)

MA-Sen (Open): Safe D to Lean D

Democrats shouldn’t have to be at all worried about Ted Kennedy’s Senate seat – and yet, with the special election just a week away, here we are. The DSCC is sending out a fundraising email on behalf of Martha Coakley. Meanwhile, big gun Bill Clinton will campaign with Coakley next week. And there’s probably more to come.

But why? A Rasmussen poll showed a nine-point race between Coakley and GOPer Scott Brown, while Tom Jensen at PPP is about to release a survey he’s touted as showing a “losable” race for Team Blue. If internal polls were showing a prettier picture, we’d be seeing them. While it’s hard to believe things have come to this in the state of Massachusetts, many have faulted a lackluster Democratic campaign and general Democratic complacency – the sorts of things we saw a bunch of in 2009. At least there finally seems to be a sense of urgency about this race, though let’s hope it’s not too little, too late. (D)

PA-Sen (Specter): Lean D to Tossup

Some pretty credible polling has shown Democrats Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak in a dogfight against Republican Pat Toomey. After Specter switched, it was difficult to fathom  a Toomey win. But as is the case in most states, the underlying environment has become a lot less favorable for Democrats since last April, and Toomey’s taken advantage of the opportunity to keep his head down, stockpile arms, and refrain from saying anything insane. Indeed, Toomey’s lack of a primary challenged has allowed him to practice his crossover pitches to Democrats and independents (e.g. endorsing Sonia Sotomayor). After the Democrats settle their contentious primary, Toomey will need to be held to account, but that will be an expensive and surprisingly arduous task. (J)

TX-Sen (Hutchison): Likely R to RTW

Kay Bailey Hutchison has changed her mind about resigning her Senate seat a thousand times, and honestly, who the hell knows what she’s going to do at this point. One report says she’ll only step down if she beats Gov. Rick Perry in the GOP gubernatorial primary; another says she’ll bail no matter what happens. And even if she does win the Republican nod, she may want to hold on to her current job just a bit longer, given that she’d face a stiff Democratic challenge in November from Houston mayor Bill White. Since this Class I seat ordinarily wouldn’t be up again until 2012, we’re downgrading this contest to Race to Watch status until KBH actually makes a decision. (D)

Gubernatorial races:

IL-Gov (Quinn): RTW to Likely D

Republicans succeeded in bumping this race up a notch with the recruitment of former state AG Jim Ryan, who was last seen losing this race to Rod Blagojevich by a 52-45 spread in 2002. Ryan is a credible contender, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is currently on the receiving end of hard hits from his primary opponent, state Comptroller Dan Hynes. There’s still plenty of time for this race to evolve, and if Illinois winds up like many of its Rust Belt brethren, this race will only get more competitive for the Democrats, not less so. But in the meantime, we’re starting off with a rating of Likely D. (J)

KS-Gov (Open): Likely R to Safe R

In November, the Dems finally landed a plausible candidate in an admittedly extremely uphill race, retired pharmaceutical executive Tom Wiggans. Unfortunately, just a month later, he dropped out. Dems are now trying to find a replacement, but it won’t be easy. Gov. Mark Parkinson (who filled Kathleen Sebelius’s spot when she joined the Obama administration) was asked if he’d reconsider his earlier decision not to run; the good news is that he didn’t offer a flat-out rejection, and he’d almost certainly be our strongest candidate. But unless and until he or someone else credible bites the bullet, this race is now Safe Republican. (D)

OH-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Gov. Ted Strickland was riding a wave of popularity for most of his first term, but he’s fallen victim to the same plague that’s afflicted many other Rust Belt governors. His approvals have dwindled alongside his state’s economy, particularly hard-hit by the decline in the manufacturing sector – and his fate is probably linked with how well the jobs market improves in the next year.

Strickland is facing off against ex-Rep. John Kasich, whose supply-side, free-trading economic conservatism doesn’t initially seem a good fit for blue-collar Ohio. Perhaps Strickland can regain the upper hand if he’s able to highlight Kasich’s relationship to those who helped cause the economic woes buffeting Ohio. But in the meantime, Kasich, functioning as something of a Generic R, is currently leading Strickland according to Rasmussen and polling close to him according to other pollsters. (C)

OR-Gov (Open): Lean D to Likely D

Here’s one of the few moves in the Democrats’ favor, and it has less to do with the national or even state atmosphere as it does with a complete recruiting failure on the Republicans’ part. Rep. Greg Walden was about the only Republican with a shot at making this a truly competitive race, and he said no thanks. Likable young state Sen. Jason Atkinson wouldn’t have likely won, but could have at least made it a spirited, high-energy race – but he, too, said no. That left the Republicans with an almost comedic assortment of spare parts: hopelessly moderate former Treasurer candidate Allen Alley, long-forgotten ex-state Sen. John Lim, and anti-tax initiative huckster Bill Sizemore, who’s likelier to be in prison come 2011 than in the governor’s mansion. Former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley seems left as the de facto frontrunner by virtue of his name recognition, personal pocketbook, and pleasant persona, but even party faithful seem flummoxed by his utter lack of substance so far.

The Democrats are facing a primary between two of their top statewide figures, ex-Governor John Kitzhaber and ex-SoS Bill Bradbury (with the outside possibility that populist Rep. Peter DeFazio may still join them). While it’s hard to imagine a primary between those two amiable guys turning rancorous, even a depleted and wounded primary victor would still have to be heavily favored against whatever the GOP offers up. (C)

TX-Gov (Perry): RTW to Likely R

Despite facing a challenging environment elsewhere in the country, Democrats appear to have their best shot at taking back the governor’s office in Texas in over a decade. Why? Because Team Blue has landed a legitimate top-flight candidate in outgoing Houston Mayor Bill White. White has broad appeal in metro Houston, which will be a big asset for Democrats, especially if GOP Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison’s primary challenge against incumbent Rick Perry results in serious intra-party damage for the Republicans.

Perry, who has to be considered the primary favorite at this point, is coming off an underwhelming 39% victory in 2006, making him about as appealing a target for Democrats as one can reasonably hope for. In truth, a Perry vs. White general election match-up is probably a shade better for Dems than “Likely R”, but we’re going to err on the side of caution for the time being. In terms of money raised, GOTV, polling, and messaging, White has a lot to prove before we can talk about Texas Democrats snapping their painfully long statewide losing skid. (J)

The Swing State Project is changing its ratings on seven Senate and three gubernatorial races:

• AR-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• AZ-Sen: Safe R to RTW
• CO-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• IA-Sen: RTW to Likely R
• IL-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• PA-Sen: Lean D to Tossup
• TX-Sen: Likely R to RTW

• KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
• OR-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
• TX-Gov: RTW to Likely R

We’ll be posting full write-ups for all of these changes soon. In the meantime, the end of the year seems like a good time to post our full ratings charts, especially given the number of changes we’ve just made.

Our Senate chart:

Races to Watch:

     AZ (McCain)

     CA (Boxer)

     HI (Inouye)

     ND (Dorgan)

     NY-B (Gillibrand)

     TX (Hutchison)

     UT (Bennett)

     WI (Feingold)

Our gubernatorial chart:

Races to Watch:

     AK (Parnell)

     IL (Quinn)

     NY (Paterson)

     UT (Herbert)

Big news out of the Nutmeg State:

Connecticut Gov. M. Jodi Rell says she will not seek re-election next year.

Rell made the announcement in a news conference with reporters Monday at the statehouse in Hartford.

This comes as a surprise, as Rell has had fairly high job approval ratings, although they’d been trending downwards lately, and a recent bit of ethical bad news couldn’t have helped matters. Democrats already in the hunt include Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont, and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy. Without a Republican in the field yet, and given the state’s bluish hue, Swing State Project is immediately moving the Connecticut race to “Tossup” (and may move it further in the Democrats’ direction once the field gets better sorted out).

UPDATE: The Hartford Courant sheds a little more light on the possible Republican field. Current Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has apparently already said he would seek the GOP nomination if Rell didn’t, and also says that Rell privately promised her support in such a case. The article also cites state House minority leader Larry Cafero and state Senate minority leader John McKinney (who begged out of a CT-04 run recently) as possible candidates.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Gov

• VA-Gov: It’s grown exceedingly hard to see a path to victory for Creigh Deeds in Virginia’s gubernatorial race. The polls aren’t closing (if anything, the gap may be widening), and there’s less than two weeks until election day. What’s more, the highest echelons of the Democratic Party are now distancing themselves from Deeds, saying he rejected Barack Obama & Tim Kaine’s “road map to victory.” The Swing State Project is therefore changing its rating on this race from Lean R to Likely R. (D)

Also, while the second-guessing has begun, PPP suggests that it’s just a bad year for Dems and/or a strong opponent in Bob McDonnell: they found that if Tim Kaine had been able to run for re-election, he’d be losing too, 51-43. Nevertheless, 57% think that governors should be able to run for re-election in Virginia (which is the only state left that doesn’t allow gubernatorial re-elections), with 35% opposed. Still, Kaine probably wouldn’t be running anti-cap-and-trade ads as Deeds is doing in the state’s southwest; with the public option already with the Deeds’ bus treads all over it, it’s one more reason for the Democratic base to lose interest in him.

• CA-Sen: The war between movement conservative candidate Chuck DeVore and the NRSC just keeps building. DeVore is calling attention to a seemingly loose-lips quote from Carly Fiorina that “the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has encouraged me to enter the race, reaffirming my belief that Chuck DeVore cannot beat Barbara Boxer,” which he says contradicts the NRSC’s claim they haven’t endorsed in the race. Of course, that’s not really an endorsement per se, but his camp also claims that the NRSC has rebuffed his attempts to dialogue with them.

• IA-Sen: Wealthy attorney and one-time Democratic gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin seems to be moving closer to a matchup with Chuck Grassley. She’s says she’s “more likely than not” to step up. While Grassley would start out with the edge, it would push one more competitive race onto the map for 2010.

• MA-Sen: Rep. Michael Capuano pulled down the endorsement of the state’s biggest union in his Democratic primary bid in the special Senate election: the 107,000-member Massachusetts Teachers Association. Capuano has a 96% rating from the MTA’s national affiliate, the National Education Association.

• NV-Sen: Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle has made it official: she’s getting into the Nevada Senate race. She had sounded hesitant earlier, but she’s emboldened either by her fundraising or by the general climate for conservative candidates right now to jump in. This sets up a confusing and potentially bloody 5-way primary in the Nevada GOP primary (although there’s likely to be some field winnowing before then), and potentially, Angle could sneak through with, say, 33%, if she consolidates the hard-right/Club for Growth/teabagger vote (remember that she was the CfG’s candidate in the open seat primary in NV-02 in 2006, where she barely lost to Dean Heller). With the opposition consisting of an establishment-backed but empty-suitish candidate in Sue Lowden, a random rich guy (John Chachas), a random name-recognition guy (Danny Tarkanian), and Mark Amodei as seemingly what passes for a moderate in the race, she seems likeliest to become the standard-bearer on the movement conservative right, especially if she somehow gets a CfG endorsement again. And the hard-right Angle would be a rather less imposing general election candidate for Harry Reid than, say, Lowden.

• NY-Sen-B: Former Governor George Pataki seems to be taking note of polls showing him competitive with Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race, although he doesn’t sound enthusiastic about it. His spokesperson tells the Daily News that he’ll make a decision about the race in the coming weeks, but “friends” say that he’s leaning toward “no.”

• UT-Sen: The name of Tim Bridgewater (the former Utah County GOP chair who’s lost several primary elections) surfaced earlier in the year in connection with a GOP primary challenge to Bob Bennett in the Senate race, but faded away as AG Mark Shurtleff seemed to gobble up all the oxygen to Bennett’s right. Suddenly, Bridgewater’s back, saying he’ll join the primary field.

• GA-Gov: Rasmussen has another poll of the gubernatorial primaries in Georgia; the only news is that Thurbert Baker seems to be gaining on ex-gov Roy Barnes. Barnes still has a big lead on the Dem side at 43 (42 in August), followed by Baker at 19 (up from 9 in August), David Poythress at 4, Dubose Porter at 4, and Carl Camon at 3. On the GOP side, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine is in command at 27, with Karen Handel at 12, Nathan Deal at 9, and Eric Johnson, Ray McBerry, and Austin Scott all at 3.

• IL-Gov: Rasmussen also looked at the Illinois governor’s race, apparently as part of their IL-Sen sample from last week; since nobody seems to know who any of the Republicans are, they just ran a Generic D/Generic R ballot, which Generic D won, 43-36. Incumbent Dem Governor Pat Quinn clocks in with approvals that are much lower than any other pollster has seen, at 45/53.

• ME-Gov (pdf): PPP polled the Maine governor’s race as part of its poll on Question 1, and finds what R2K found a few weeks ago, which is that nobody has any idea what’s going on. As with R2K, they found “not sure” dominating the head-to-heads and even the favorability questions. Unlike R2K, though, they found that moderate GOP state Sen. Peter Mills matches up well against the Dems, beating state Sen. President Libby Mitchell 34-31 and ex-AG Steve Rowe 33-25. Mitchell beats rich guy Les Otten 34-26, but Otten beats Rowe 28-26. Meanwhile, one more sorta-prominent Republican now says he’s seriously considering the race: Steve Abbott, who’s currently Susan Collins’ chief of staff.

• NJ-Gov: Two more polls split the difference between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in New Jersey. Democracy Corps, who’ve usually been Corzine’s most favorable pollster, finds a 3-point race, with Corzine at 42, Christie at 39, and Chris Daggett at 13. SurveyUSA, on the hand, has tended to lean toward Christie and continue to do so, giving him a 2-point lead, with Christie at 41, Corzine at 39, and Daggett at 19. Christie, for his part, is turning for help to the one Republican in New Jersey that most people still like: ex-Governor Tom Kean, who just cut a TV ad on Christie’s behalf.

• RI-Gov: Businessman Rory Smith has announced his candidacy on the Republican side for Rhode Island governor. Insiders are comparing him to current GOP Gov. Don Carcieri, who was also a little-known businessman before winning in 2002; unlike Carcieri, though, Smith is socially liberal. He may have the field to himself; little-known state Rep. Joe Trillo, who was viewed as the default frontrunner after former Senate candidate Stephen Laffey declined, recently said that he too is leaning against the race.

• AK-AL: Trouble just keeps following Republican Rep. Don Young around, and there’s more of it today. A retired oil industry exec from VECO, Bill Allen, told the Justice Department that his company gave paid for fundraising events for Young to the tune of $130K to $195K, and also gave gifts to Young which didn’t get disclosed. This provides the first hard evidence linking Young to the same VECO scandal that took down Ted Stevens last year. Young has not been charged in the matter, although suspicion was cast his way in previous VECO-related testimony. Young, who narrowly won in 2008, faces another competitive race in 2010 (assuming he’s still in office at that point) from Democratic state Rep. Harry Crawford.

• IL-08: On the “some dude” front, businessman (and apparently, not the former Eagles guitarist) Joe Walsh (who ran unsuccessfully against Sidney Yates in the 9th back in the 90s) announced that he’ll run against Melissa Bean in the 8th.

• NY-23: Now that all the cool kids are endorsing Doug Hoffman, the floodgates are starting to open among the cognoscenti of the conservative movement: Rick Santorum endorsed, and so too did former presidential candidate Michael Steve Forbes. Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who seems like he’s still trying to decide whether to be establishment or movement in 2012, has his finger in the air but said he’ll probably endorsed and gave a clue by saying he had issues with the way Scozzafava got the nomination.

• VA-05: Also on the “some dude” front, businessman and first-time candidate Ron Ferrin got into the overstuffed Republican field to go against freshman Rep. Tom Perriello. State Sen. Robert Hurt seems to have the inside track, though.

• VA-St. House: One other worry for Democrats in Virginia is that Creigh Deeds’ seeming negative coattails could cost them some seats in the state House of Delegates (where the GOP has a 53-43 edge, with 2 R-caucusing indies and 2 vacancies). Not Larry Sabato gives a preview of the hot races there, helpfully breaking it down into Tossup, Lean, and Likely for us. They see 2 GOP seats and 3 Dem seats as leaning toward takeovers, with 5 true tossups, but a strong McDonnell performance could push things more in the GOP direction.

• Campaign Finance: Here’s an interesting development on the campaign finance arena, although experts are still trying to sort out just what it means. The FEC won’t appeal an appellate court decision that would allow outside groups to spend significantly more money on elections. The case was brought by EMILY’s List; the decision allows them and other 527s to use soft money (in addition to hard money) to pay for ads and GOTV. The Obama administration’s Solicitor General, Elena Kagen, however, can still appeal the case without the FEC’s involvement.

• 2010: It sounds like some of the more timid members of the House Democrats were in need of a pep talk, so Chris Van Hollen of the DCCC sent around a memo with a nice list of bullet points on why 2010 won’t be 1994.

Democracy Corps (D) (10/6-7, likely voters, 9/22-23 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (39)

Chris Christie (R): 38 (40)

Chris Daggett (I): 14 (11)

Undecided: 7 (9)

(MoE: ±4%)

That’s the second poll this week which has shown Jon Corzine with the slimmest of leads. And, as happened on Tuesday, there’s also another poll alongside this one showing Corzine just behind.

SurveyUSA (10/5-7, likely voters, no trendlines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40

Chris Christie (R): 43

Chris Daggett (I): 14

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±4%)

Unfortunately, this is SUSA’s first poll of NJ-Gov, so we have no trendlines here. But they’re seeing the same thing as everyone else – a very close race:

Back when we last changed our rating on this race, we were at the point on the Pollster chart where the distance between the red and blue lines had been getting wider and wider, and was in fact at the widest it had ever been – “peak Christie,” you might call it. At the time, we felt that this race exhibited a number of signs that set it apart from the usual “unloved Jersey Dem comes back in the end” storyline. Yet we did conclude with this remark:

This doesn’t mean we think Corzine can’t stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.

Well, things have changed. True, Corzine’s popularity still sucks, and so does the economy. But it turns out Chris Christie wound up being a whole lot suckier. His non-stop parade of ethical lapses and his utter failure to articulate any kind of vision for the Garden State have proven that as a candidate – dare I say it? – he’s a lightweight. Even the conservative Wall Street Journal has hammered him for his “empty” campaign. In retrospect, though, I suppose we shouldn’t have expected much more than this from a handpicked Karl Rove-brand US Attorney.

The other factor, of course, is the emergence of independent Chris Daggett, who has almost certainly been siphoning off a good helping of anti-incumbent discontent. SUSA, interestingly, shows that similar proportions of folks who voted for Corzine in 2005 and his Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, are defecting to Daggett. But both my intuition and Daggett’s overall trendlines make me think that if he weren’t in the race, plenty of Democrats would still be defecting but fewer Republicans would be. In other words, Daggett offers an escape valve for some anti-Corzine votes that would otherwise go to Christie.

Add in Corzine’s considerable money advantage and it’s enough for us to conclude that this race is anybody’s game. So we’re moving NJ-Gov back to “Tossup.” Election night should be a wild ride.

Because four terms as Governor just aren’t enough:

Former Gov. Terry Branstad filed papers today creating a campaign committee for governor, signaling the beginning of a potential comeback campaign for the Republican and reshaping the race for the 2010 primary election….

Schwarm, who plans to file the paperwork, said it should not be interpreted as a definitive sign that Branstad is committed to running. But veteran Republican strategists see the move as a tacit campaign launch, establishing Branstad as the prohibitive favorite capable of thinning the robust primary field.

Branstad, the current President of Des Moines University, was Iowa’s Republican Governor from 1982 to 1998. You might think that makes him an ancient mummy, but he was only 35 when first elected, so he’s only 62 years old (heck, he probably has another four terms in him). Branstad has polled well, pulling down high favorables and beating current Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in head-to-heads. Polls, however, have also shown a surprisingly low number of people thinking it’s a good idea for him to run again, especially among older Iowans (the ones who actually remember him).

This suggests that while Branstad starts out in strong position, once voters are reminded of the lingering negatives from his administration he may lose some steam. There’s also the little matter of the Republican primary, where it seems unlikely that some of the hard-right candidates (like Bob vander Plaats) will step out of his way. With all this in mind, Swing State Project is changing this race to a Tossup.

RaceTracker: IA-Gov

The Swing State Project announced changes to eight race ratings recently. Since then, we’ve added one more race to the list (VA-Gov), and we’re changing the rating once more on another (AR-Sen). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.

Senate races:

AR-Sen (Lincoln): Safe D to Lean D

When we were debating our ratings changes a few weeks ago, we decided to push the Arkansas Senate contest to Likely D. But that was then. We’re now moving the race to Lean D, and even that is probably pretty generous. All the recent polling on this race has shown Blanche Lincoln to be in pretty dire shape – R2K, PPP, and Rasmussen all have her mired in the 40s. The latter two both have her losing to the most recent & credible entrant into the race, non-crazy state Sen. Gilbert Baker.

Arkansas is a rough state which really hates Obama. While it had for a long time been much friendlier to Dems than most of its Southern neighbors, it now seems to be playing catch-up with a vengeance. In a word, Lincoln is in trouble. Probably the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column at this point is that Gilbert is still something of an unknown quantity. We’ll be watching him, and especially his upcoming fundraising reports, very closely. (D)

CA-Sen (Boxer): Safe D to RTW

You might recall this race started out as a Race to Watch, then vanished once it was clear that Arnold Schwarzenegger was not going to run against Barbara Boxer. We’re giving it a second look, though, because the NRSC has found another lesser celebrity, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Fiorina (assuming she runs – she’s still in exploratory mode) has a few things going for her: She’s moderate enough to get some traction in the general (assuming she gets by conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the primary), the NRSC clearly will go all out to help her out, and, most of all, she has gobs of money she can spend on herself. On the downside, she was very publicly and unceremoniously dumped from HP after presiding over its downfall, and she doesn’t have much political discipline yet, as seen by her getting muzzled after a brief stint as a McCain surrogate. Polls have ranged from single-digit to 20-point gaps in favor of Boxer, so the race bears further watching. (C)

NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup

Harry Reid may have more coin the in the bank than the Bible’s got psalms, but that can’t cover up for the fact that Nevadans have downright frosty feelings for him. Despite avoiding a challenge from any top-shelf GOPers, poll after poll after poll after poll after poll has shown that Reid’s B-grade opponents are all clobbering him in the court of public opinion. (It also looks like Reid might have even mustered a B+ challenger, in the form of state Sen. Mark Amodei.)

Making matters worse for the embattled Majority Leader is the fact that son Rory Reid has a clear, uncontested path to the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Rory seems to be one of the weakest candidates the Democrats could muster for this race, and pappy is apparently unhappy that the Reid name will be so over-exposed on the Nevada ballot next year. Like a major collision that can’t be prevented, the trajectory of this race is both catastrophically ugly and mesmerizing at once. (J)

NY-Sen-B (Gillibrand): Safe D to RTW

The New York State Republican Party is in a shambles, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand looks strong, with lots of money in the bank, endorsements galore, and powerful friends behind her. The only possible wrinkle here is named George Pataki. The former governor has been floated as a potential challenger for some time, but he doesn’t seem to have actually indicated any interest. Still, out of an abundance of caution, we’re going to slot this in as a Race to Watch, in case Pataki does get in. (D)

Gubernatorial races:

CO-Gov (Ritter): Lean D to Tossup

Bill Ritter is being squeezed from all sides. Not only is there new evidence that Democrats are beginning to lag in Colorado after several cycles of strong growth, Ritter has succeeded in making enemies out of friends by vetoing every major labor-friendly bill that the Democratic legislature has churned out over his first term. Polls have shown Ritter in trouble against his Republican opponents, and it wouldn’t be surprising if many rank-and-file Democrats don’t feel compelled to bail Ritter’s ass out at on Election Day next year. (J)

IA-Gov (Culver): RTW to Likely D

Freshman Gov. Chet Culver’s approval ratings have been hard to pin down – as low as 36% in August according to SUSA before rebounding to 41% this month, but 50% according to a recent Selzer survey, down from 55% in April. Luckily, though, Culver hasn’t drawn much in the way of opposition – yet. But in this toxic political environment, few incumbents are truly safe, and regardless of which pollster you believe, it would be hard to describe Culver’s approval ratings as “good.”

Even more worrisome, former Gov. Terry Branstad is supposedly considering the race, and his favorables are quite strong. The good news, though, is that Branstad hasn’t been in office for a decade, and his numbers now are a lot better than they were at the end of his tenure. That will change once he faces a real campaign. Plus, Branstad’s entrance might trigger a civil war between his “moderate” faction and the conservative base. Still, Branstad would be a very formidable opponent and if he does face off against Culver, we will very likely revise our rating once more. (D)

MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup

With the long-rumored but now-official entry of Treasurer Tim Cahill into the race, we’ve got a serious shot at seeing Massachusetts elect its first-ever Independent Governor. Cahill, who recently dropped his Democratic affiliation in order to challenge the unpopular incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick without the hassle of a primary, seems to have as good a shot as anyone at winning this race. Polls of the race that have just focused on a head-to-head between Patrick and Republican challengers (convenience store czar Christy Mihos, health care magnate Charlie Baker) have given narrow edges to the GOP, while three-way polls have generally shown Cahill either leading or tied with Patrick, as Cahill seems to eat up the protest votes of a lot of Democrats who’ve lost patience with Patrick. Massachusetts has a bad habit of electing moderate non-Democrats as Governor to counteract its Democratic supermajorities in the legislature, so this race is truly anybody’s ball game now. (C)

VA-Gov (Open): Tossup to Lean R

We’re a little late on this one, but we had wanted to give Creigh Deeds the benefit of the doubt. At this stage, though, it’s hard to see how Bob McDonnell doesn’t have the edge. While the race has tightened somewhat lately, Deeds has not led in a single poll since a very brief post-primary bounce back in June. In 2005, this race also tightened up very late, so we’re not ruling out a move back to Tossup status before the end. But Tim Kaine’s move began in September, and now it’s already October. Time’s running out. (D)

WI-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup

Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle’s decision to retire rather than to seek a third term may actually prove helpful to Democrats in the long run, as “incumbent fatigue” will not be an issue in retaining this office next year. Still, it’s a wide open race in the near-term, and the GOP has a pair of credible candidates in Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann. Democratic Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton is in the race, but she may have to campaign against popular Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett for the nomination. (J)