MI-07: Walberg to Run Again

Roll Call:

Add former Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg’s name to the list of House Republicans defeated in 2008 who are seeking their former seats in 2010.

Walberg, who lost re-election to now-Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.), announced Tuesday morning that he will run for his old seat next year.

“I cannot sit idly while Congressman Schauer votes to raise taxes, spend trillions we don’t have and bring the failed Granholm strategies he advanced in Michigan to Washington D.C.,” Walberg said in a statement, referring to unpopular Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D).

Walberg (a highly-enriched, weapons-grade wingnut) is our third GOP retread defeated in 2008 who’s looking for a rematch this cycle (Steve Chabot in Ohio’s 1st and Steve Pearce in New Mexico’s 2nd being the other two). Somehow I don’t think the NRCC is as thrilled with the prospect of a Walberg resurrection as they are with Pearce and Chabot’s candidacies.

RaceTracker Wiki: MI-07

SSP Daily Digest: 5/11

TN-03: Paula Flowers, the former Tennessee Insurance Commissioner, formally announced her candidacy for the Democratic nomination on Thursday. This is a tough district at R+13, but between it being an open seat (as Zach Wamp is running for governor) and Flowers’ statewide profile, we have a shot here.

IL-13: Last year, businessman Scott Harper held Rep. Judy Biggert to a much closer than expected margin (54-44) without DCCC help, in this once solidly Republican district (which just plunged from R+5 to R+1). Harper filed an exploratory committee on Friday for a rematch. He can probably count on a higher-profile race this time, especially as strong fundraising might encourage the 71-year-old Biggert to think about retirement.

MI-07: The GOP is still trying to settle on a challenger to freshman Rep. Mark Schauer in this rural Michigan district. Former Rep. Tim Walberg (who lost after one term to Schauer) seems to have dibs on the race, and state GOP chair Saul Anuzis is thinking he’ll do it again, but Walberg says he’s in no hurry to decide. Brad Smith, a lawyer who’s the son of the district’s former Rep. Nick Smith, seems to be taking shape as their fallback option.

NJ-03: John Culbertson, a wealthy investor who was courted by the New Jersey GOP to run against frosh Democratic Rep. John Adler based on his capacity to self-fund, says he’s not interested in pursuing the race. (J)

KS-Sen: I’m not exactly sure what Dennis Hastert has at stake in the Kansas Senate primary, but he waded into it today, endorsing Rep. Todd Tiahrt. (Tiahrt is up against another former Hastert colleague, Rep. Jerry Moran, in a moderate/conservative duel; maybe Hastert sees this as a proxy battle over the GOP’s heart-and-soul.)

Mayors: In Austin’s mayoral election over the weekend, no candidate finished over 50%, but it looks like there may be no contested runoff after all; 2nd-place finisher Brewster McCracken, who trailed fellow city councilor Lee Leffingwell by 20 points on Saturday, said that he’s bowing out of the runoff and conceding. In San Antonio, former city councilor and rising star Julian Castro easily won against eight other challengers.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/24

NY-20 (pdf): Last evening’s total from the BoE had Scott Murphy leading Jim Tedisco by 401. With his chances approaching the “statistically impossible” realm, we may reportedly see a Tedisco concession today.

MN-Sen: Norm Coleman could take a few pointers from Jim Tedisco. The five justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court who’ll hear the election contest (two justices who’ve been actively involved in the count recused themselves) announced that their expedited hearing isn’t all that expedited: it’ll happen on June 1, to give the parties adequate time to file briefs and replies. In the meantime, that gives Minnesotans more than one more month with just one senator.

GA-Gov, GA-03: Just one day after his name was suddenly floated for GA-Gov, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland flushed that idea, saying he’ll stay in the House.

PA-Gov: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato was bandied about as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the open governor’s race in 2010, but we’ve heard nary a peep from him on the matter. Apparently, he is in fact interested, as he says he’s “laying the groundwork” and expects a formal announcement later in the year.

TN-Gov: Businessman Mike McWherter made official his candidacy for the Democratic nod in the open Tennessee governor’s race. McWherter hasn’t held elective office, but benefits strongly from links with his father, popular ex-governor Ned McWherter.

SC-Gov: Lawyer Mullins McLeod (and apparent scion of a political family, although one that pales in comparison to the Thurmonds or Campbells) announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in the open governor’s race. He joins two Democratic state senators Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford in the chase.

CA-10: Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who previously issued an internal poll showing her leading senator Mark DeSaulnier, has officially jumped into the special election field. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi’s entry into the race, splitting the white-guy vote, Buchanan probably feels that her hand has been strengthened.

CO-03: Rep. John Salazar has drawn a solid Republican challenger in this R+5 district: Martin Beeson, who’s the district attorney for Pitkin, Garfield, and Rio Blanco Counties. Blue Dog Salazar has had little trouble with re-election despite the district’s lean.

CA-36: Jane Harman’s high-profile role in the still-unfolding wiretap scandal has liberal activists in the 36th, long frustrated by Harman’s hold on this D+12 district, wondering if they finally have an opening to defeat her in a primary. Marcy Winograd, who won 38% against Harman in 2006, has been urged to run again and is “thinking about it.”

MI-07: For real? Republicans in DC (read: the NRCC) are telling MLive.com’s Susan J. Demas that their top choice to take on frosh Dem Mark Schauer is none other than… ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who was ingloriously defeated in a 2006 primary by wingnut Tim Walberg. Schwarz, who went so far as to endorse Schauer over Walberg last fall, tells Demas that he’s not interested in running again. (J)

NH-02: Democratic New Hampshire State Rep. John DeJoie has formed an exploratory committee for the seat Paul Hodes is leaving open. (D)

KS-04: Democrats have their first candidate in the open seat in the 4th: Robert Tillman, a retired court services officer, and former precinct committeeman and NAACP local board member. There’s more firepower on the GOP side of the aisle in this now-R+14 district, including RNC member Mike Pompeo and state senator Dick Kelsey.

Redistricting: Republican Ohio state senator John Husted (who will probably be the GOP’s candidate for SoS in 2010) has introduced legislation that would totally change the way redistricting is done in Ohio. It would create a 7-member bipartisan commission that would draw both congressional and state district lines (removing congressional district authority from the legislature, and legislative district authority from the 5-member panel that Dems currently control). It remains to be seen, though, whether this proposal would make it past the Democratic governor and state house.

Nostalgia: Yahoo is shutting down the venerable Geocities. What ever will former Louisiana senate candidate John Neeley Kennedy do? (D)

MI-07: What To Watch For

It promises to be a tough Election Night for me and my Michigan 7th. If I had my way, I’d be sitting in front of the computer with a bag of popcorn from about noon until 3:00am. I really get into elections. And I’m ready to be done with the Mark Schauer versus Tim Walberg race. But sadly, I won’t be able to watch the beginning of the drama I’ve waited so long to see.

From 7:00pm to 9:00pm, I'm going to be away from a computer– and, in fact, away from any televisions, radios, or other devices which report election results. During arguably the most exciting portion of the night, when Virginia may be called for Obama, or when the returns start coming in for the Georgia Senate race, or when our own district begins reporting, I won't be able to be a part of it.

For a political junkie like me, that's like missing the World Series, the Rose Bowl (Go 'Cats! I believe in you!), and the World Cup all at once, which, by the way, are also on Christmas. Tomorrow could be a really amazing day, and I’m disappointed that I’ll be missing a big part of it.

But when I do get to a computer, I’ll be looking for a few things. I don’t claim to have a secret formula or know which tiny town will be the bellwether, and I’m definitely not a Grebner-like expert. But I can tell you what I think a Schauer victory might look like, and where I’ll be looking for it.

Turnout in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties

With 98 percent of Michigan’s voting population registered, there are a lot of people who could show up to vote. That’s got to worry Tim Walberg, whose victory in the 2006 GOP primary was thanks to what former Congressman Joe Schwarz called a “motivated minority” of 7.8 percent in a low-turnout primary. (Schwarz also called them “quasi-theocrats… infiltrating the party power structure”). Granted, a general election is very different from a primary, but a Walberg victory will depend on certain people not showing up, namely in Calhoun County, where Mark Schauer could run up the margin.

But Walberg has someone working against him: Barack Obama. The Obama campaign has done a phenomenal job of registering new voters who are trending Democratic. But they didn’t ask prospective voters for a partisan affiliation before they registered them, nor should they have. In a Republican-leaning district, is it possible that the Obama campaign might have just registered a bunch of new Republicans?

Maybe, but judging from where the new voters are coming from, probably not. With help from the Detroit Free Press (who got the data from the Michigan Secretary of State), here’s a fun table:

County Reg. Voters New Voters % Change (Jan. – Oct.)

Branch 31,805 683 +2%

Calhoun* 103,707 3,950 +4%

Eaton 80,023 2,781 +4%

Hillsdale 33,327 724 +2%

Jackson 115,357 4,672 +4%

Lenawee 71,552 2,170 +3%

Washtenaw* 273,955 24,962 +10%

Note that both Calhoun and Washtenaw Counties have portions not in the 7th District. This is especially important in Washtenaw County, where Ann Arbor (and the University of Michigan) probably accounts for most of the voters and most of the growth. However, Battle Creek, which is in the district, is the major population center for Calhoun County, and is probably responsible for most of that growth. So for our simplified purposes here, let’s ignore Washtenaw County but keep Calhoun County.

As you can see, the most new voters were added in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties (both in absolute number of voters and in proportion to their populations). Calhoun County is generally considered safe territory for Mark Schauer, who has represented the voters there in the state House and Senate since 1996 and is generally very popular. Jackson and Eaton Counties, meanwhile, are the major “battlegrounds.” Not only are they vote-rich, but they were divided pretty evenly in the 2006 election (Eaton: Renier 50 Walberg 48; Jackson: Walberg 51 Renier 46). Although Schauer currently represents much of Jackson County in the state Senate, I’m expecting it to be a major battleground again. Neglected in the voter registration drives were the Walberg strongholds of Branch and Hillsdale Counties, and to a lesser degree, Lenawee County (more on it in a minute).

I don’t have solid data behind me, but I’m going to guess that if they turn out to vote, the new voters in Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson Counties will break Democratic. If they were registered by the Obama folks, they were probably targeted as students or underrepresented populations, which is probably good news for Mark Schauer. At least, that’s what I’m hoping.

In 2006, Calhoun County had 47.5 percent turnout, Eaton County had 59.9 percent turnout, and Jackson County had 51.8 percent turnout (data here and here). If turnout is higher than that in those three counties (and especially Calhoun County), new voters and Schauer loyalists could run up enough of a margin to offset losses in the southern part of the district. If the turnout is really big in Calhoun County, that might be the whole ball game.

Is that a possibility? Could central-west Michigan see a massive surge in turnout? I don’t know, but it sounds like Kalamazoo County (one west from Calhoun County) is getting ready for one:

KALAMAZOO — Bracing for a very long and very busy Tuesday, area election officials say they're "as ready as we'll ever be" for the 2008 presidential election.

"We're in good shape," Kalamazoo County Clerk Tim Snow said. "We've been preparing for this all year. We knew this was going to be big."

A surge in voter registrations and predictions of a higher rate of participation means the county could have as many as 144,000 voters this year, compared to the 120,000 who cast ballots four years ago.

The city of Kalamazoo, in particular, has taken steps to avoid long lines Tuesday, putting in a minimum of 14 voting stations at each precinct and substantially increasing the staffing.  

[…]

On Tuesday, polls will be open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. People who are in line at 8 p.m. will be allowed to vote. The forecast calls for sunny skies and a high near 70 degrees.

 

Lenawee County

This is where Tim Walberg should win. He represented Lenawee County for 16 years in the state House of Representatives, and the mostly rural county is famous (or infamous) for its conservative politics and sometimes frightening tendencies. (Anyone else remember “Radio Free Lenawee”?) This is where I’m from, and I can say that it is a conservative place.

At the same time, though, people don’t really like Tim Walberg all that much. Oh, sure, some do. Whenever I was canvassing, I was bound to run into someone who would say, “I plan to vote for Tim, I’ve known him for years” or something like that. But I’d also meet someone who’d say, “Walberg? I can’t believe we keep electing that guy!” The solidly-Republican state House seat Walberg vacated has been in Democratic hands (albeit moderate ones) for ten years. With state Representative Dudley Spade basically guaranteed reelection, it’ll stay that way for at least two more years.

Meanwhile, the county is changing. Before the economy got really bad, a lot of people were moving out to Clinton or Tecumseh from Ann Arbor or metro Detroit for the cheaper properties, willing to put up with the couple-hour commute. They don’t have a relationship with Tim Walberg, and some of them are even (gasp) Democrats.

And the Schauer campaign has taken the county seriously, opening an office in downtown Adrian and hiring a full-time field organizer to staff it and coordinate with the Obama and Spade campaigns. Whenever he’s in the county, Mark Schauer is certain to mention his great relationship with Doug and Dudley Spade, both of whom carry a lot of weight. (Side note: Their secret to success? They’re actually really good representatives. If you go to Dudley Spade with a problem, he’ll do everything he can to solve it.) Throw in the Obama organizers, and you’ve got a real chance for 2008 to be a year of Democratic revival in Lenawee County.

Will Mark Schauer win it? … No. It just won’t happen. But he can keep it close. Governor Jennifer Granholm managed to take 47 percent of the vote in 2006, and if Schauer can get a similar share of the vote and hold Walberg to 51 or 52 percent, it could mean a lot. If Schauer opens up a big lead in Calhoun County and Washtenaw County, then there just aren’t enough voters in Branch and Hillsdale Counties to make up for it. Walberg needs to win Lenawee County convincingly. If Lenawee County is as tight as the other “battlegrounds,” it’s going to be a rough night for Tim Walberg.

And what if Mark Schauer wins Lenawee County? Then short of something really unexpected happening, Schauer will win the district. But like I said, Schauer won’t win Lenawee County. I’m not going to let my hopes get that high.

Obama

Barack Obama is going to win the state of Michigan. The only question left is “How big?” Since John McCain pulled out of Michigan, it’s started to look pretty big. Here’s the Pollster.com chart for Michigan:

That’s quite a sight, isn’t it? The final Pollster average puts it at Obama +16, which would be a bigger margin than Bill Clinton’s +13 win in 1996. That year, with the help of Ross Perot, Bill Clinton carried four of the counties that currently make up the 7th District: Calhoun, Washtenaw, Lenawee, and Branch. Calhoun and Washtenaw are to be expected, but Lenawee and Branch surprised me when I looked back at them. After all, these are supposed to be the conservative parts of the district.

Supposing Obama has similar success, picking up Calhoun, western Washtenaw, and at least one other county, is there any way Mark Schauer can lose? I’m not sure what the Obama-Walberg voter looks like, and I’d be shocked to see Obama carrying Jackson County by a wide margin but Schauer losing it. Maybe it’s possible, but Mark Schauer has done a good job presenting himself as a moderate and a hard-working, dependable public servant. If Obama wins big, I can’t imagine any reason for the Obama voter to choose “more of the same” and Tim Walberg.

*****

Upon re-reading all of that, I’m worried that I’m being too optimistic and tempting fate for another disappointing election night. It’s possible. Even so, and despite not having any idea of what I’m doing, I think that most of my reasoning has some foundation to it. I think one of the three factors above (if not all of them) could contribute to a Schauer victory.

That’s what I’ll be looking for, sometime around 9:15pm Eastern Time. It’s possible that there will be a clear leader by the time I arrive on the scene. We’ll see soon enough if any of this is right.

Cross-posted from Walberg Watch

MI-07: Schauer Leads by 8 in New Poll

Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC (10/6-7, likely voters):

Mark Schauer (D): 43

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 35

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Those numbers are basically a death sentence for an incumbent, and they’re not far off at all from a recent Schauer internal poll showing Walberg trailing by 46-36. Obama leads McCain by 46-37 in this poll, which might be a bit optimistic for a district that supported Bush by 54-45 in 2004, but perhaps that’s the byproduct of John McCain flipping his wrinkly middle finger at the entire state of Michigan in recent days.

And while we’re on this race, check out the attack ads from both Schauer (hitting Walberg on his ties to the Club For Growth) and Walberg (hitting Schauer for being endorsed by… Michael Moore):

Now, pray tell, which one would you assign descriptors like “effective” and “sane” to? That’s what I thought.

MI-07: Schauer Leads by 10 in New Poll

Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (10/5-6, likely voters, 9/23-24 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 46 (42)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (36)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Could we be seeing a bounce for Schauer after ex-GOP Rep. Joe Schwarz endorsed him last week? It’s not the only bounce for a Democrat in this district: after McCain decided to flip the bird to the entire state of Michigan by withdrawing his campaign from the state, Obama has pulled ahead to a 50-39 lead over McCain here. Maybe that’s a bit optimistic, but there’s no denying that Walberg lost some pretty key infrastructure after McCain pulled out his ground game in Michigan.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: The Politico reports that the NRCC is dropping $2.2 million in ads against Schauer and Steve Driehaus in OH-01. That’s a lot of scrilla — at that rate, they’ll only be able to make concentrated bursts in a relatively small number of districts, and still get outspent by the D-trip.

CQ in midst of House Ratings Change to No Clear Favorite in MI

It appears that CQ is in the midst of changing two Michigan races from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite.

I did my daiy check on the CQPolitics.com Election Map, and noticed the number of House races in No Clear Favorite went to 17 from 15. I went to the map and now MI-07 (Mark Schauer against Rep. Walberg) and MI-09 (Gary Peters against Rep. Knollenberg) are “yellow” and in a no clear favorite status.

I expect a story to be submitted by CQ and provide the details in the next day. At that time, the remaining information on the pages will get updated to reflect the “No Clear Favorite” status. Recent polling has been documented on SSP. Details of each race below the fold.

MI-07

2008: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) vs. Mark Schauer (D)

2006: Walberg (R) 50 percent, Sharon Renier (D) 46 percent

Democrats are heavily targeting the seat, arguing that Walberg, who ousted moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz in a bitter primary in 2006, is too conservative for the southern, rural district. Democratic state Sen. Mark Schauer continued to out-raise the first-term Republican congressman through the second quarter of 2008 and easily cleared the Aug. 5 primary against Renier, the organic farmer whose underfunded candidacy in 2006 highlighted Walberg’s vulnerability.

MI-09

2008: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) vs. Gary Peters (D)

2006: Rep. Joe Knollenberg (R) 52 percent, Nancy Skinner (D) 46 percent

Democratic gains in the Oakland County district combined with Knollenberg’s record low win in 2006 have made Michigan’s 9th Congressional District a top Democratic target and former state Sen. Gary Peters a top candidate for the party in 2008. Knollenberg has eight terms under his belt and has gotten an early start in campaigning for re-election. He raised $1.8 million as of March 31, but Peters is receiving support from the Democratic House campaign committee and had raised three-quarters of a million dollars by the same date.

MI-07: Bombshell — GOP Ex-Rep. Schwarz Endorses Schauer

Game-changer:

Former U.S. Rep. Joe Schwarz is endorsing Democratic challenger Mark Schauer in his former south-central Michigan congressional district, even though he’s a Republican.

Schwarz told The Associated Press on Tuesday that he decided to endorse Schauer over Republican Rep. Tim Walberg because the anti-tax Club for Growth began running ads critical of Schauer. […]

Schwarz says he couldn’t remain neutral in the race once the group got involved. He says it’s “the straw that broke the camel’s back.”

Schwarz, a relatively moderate Republican, was defeated in the GOP primary in 2006 after the Club For Growth flooded the district with over $1 million in negative advertising. Earlier in the day, the Club announced that they’d be once again injecting themselves into this district by spending $175,000 on new attack ads against Democrat Mark Schauer.

In the end, it looks like that was a costly buy — for wingnut Rep. Tim Walberg.

MI-07: Schauer Leads by 6 in New Poll

Myers Research & Strategic Services for Mark Schauer (9/23-24, likely voters, 5/8-15 in parens):

Mark Schauer (D): 42 (37)

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 36 (40)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Schauer posts another lead over Walberg, whose job approval rating (34-46) is still in the dumps. Looks like the money spent by Patriot Majority and the DCCC here has had some effect.

The full polling memo is available below the fold. SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

DCCC Spends $1.4 Million in 15 Districts

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

































































































District Incumbent Group Media Buy
AL-02 Open DCCC $91,520
AL-05 Open DCCC $60,700
AZ-01 Open DCCC $183,679
AZ-05 Mitchell DCCC $168,245
AZ-08 Giffords DCCC $58,462
CT-04 Shays DCCC $119,130
FL-16 Mahoney DCCC $91,081
IL-11 Open DCCC $40,953
KY-02 Open DCCC $88,977
LA-06 Cazayoux OPHTHPAC $49,163
MD-01 Open DCCC $145,851
MI-07 Walberg DCCC $63,040
MI-09 Knollenberg DCCC $47,392
MN-03 Open DCCC $131,894
VA-11 Open DCCC $80,915

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

  • AL-02: $150,000

  • IL-11: $430,000

  • NJ-03: $74,000

  • NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.