Tag: Paul Hodes

Research 2000 for Concord Monitor (10/17-19, likely voters, 9/22-24 in parens):

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (50)

John Sununu (R-inc): 43 (41)

(MoE: ±4%)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 48 (44)

Jeb Bradley (R): 43 (43)

(MoE: ±6%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 49 (47)

Jennifer Horn (R): 35 (34)

(MoE: ±6%)

Things are looking pretty stable in New Hampshire in the newest round of Research 2000 polls of that state for the Concord Monitor. Probably most notable is the improvement for Carol Shea-Porter, who has posted mostly underwhelming poll numbers this cycle; however, she’s up to a five-point lead from a one-point lead last month. (With a 6% margin of error, though… each CD’s sample seems to be half of the statewide sample… anything could be going on there.)

On the Senate side, John Sununu has gained a couple points on Jeanne Shaheen, probably on the back of major advertising expenditures (he’s got a big warchest; now’s the time to spend it). He’s left with an awful lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks, though.

Obama leads McCain 50-43 at the top of the ticket. And as a bonus, I know everyone has been losing a lot of sleep worrying over the New Hampshire governor’s race; incumbent Dem John Lynch leads John Joe Kenney 60-34.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Jeanne Shaheen (D): 48 (46)

John Sununu (R-inc): 44 (42)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

The University of New Hampshire is back with new polls, and they show a continuation of Shaheen’s four-point lead from July. The July poll was considered a bit out-of-whack at the time, but this week’s poll seems more in line with overall polling trends: still a consistent Shaheen lead (with the exception of that recent wacky Rasmussen poll), but now within the margin of error instead of out in double-digit land. Encouragingly, Sununu’s favorables are dropping, down to 44% from over 50 in July. The same sample gives McCain a 47-45 lead.

University of New Hampshire (WMUR Granite State Poll): (9/14-21, likely voters, 7-11/20 in parens)

Carol Shea-Porter (D-inc): 42 (40)

Jeb Bradley (R): 45 (46)

Undecided 12 (14)

(MoE: ±6.2%)

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 38 (43)

Jennifer Horn (R): 26 (23)

Undecided 33 (32)

(MoE: ±6.0%)

UNH also takes a look at the two Congressional races in New Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter continues to trail Jeb Bradley (now by 3) in the rematch of their 2006 race in NH-01. The gap has closed a bit from last time, probably as Jeb Bradley emerges from an acrimonious primary covered in mud. Shea-Porter has only a 44% favorable rating (up significantly from the previous sample), but Bradley is even worse at 36% favorable, down from nearly 50 last time, which indicates that his primary battle with John Stephen may have mortally wounded him. Shea-Porter maintains a financial edge and can count on DCCC help, but this still looks to be a close race come November.

The other freshman representative, Paul Hodes, is in much better shape in the more Dem-leaning NH-02, giving Hodes the tie-breaker in the battle of dueling internals we saw earlier this week. Hodes is up by 12, although note the huge number of undecideds in this race (which has only grown since the GOP primary was resolved).

Playing “spot the methodological weaknesses in the UNH poll” has become a favorite netroots pastime, and there are a few things to point out: each of the Congressional samples is only half of the statewide sample, leaving them with sample sizes of only 252 and 271, and enormous 6% MoEs. In addition, these samples seem especially heavy on the Republicans (although New Hampshire may be one state where old school New England Republicans retain their registration even as they increasingly vote Democratic as the national GOP devolves into Theocon Central). This is especially glaring in the 2nd District, where the sample includes 60 Democrats and 91 Republicans (50% more).

Anzalone-Liszt for Paul Hodes (9/14-18, likely voters):

Paul Hodes (D-inc): 50

Jennifer Horn (R): 32

Chester Lapointe (L): 4

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Horn, a disingenuous, unaccomplished radio host, recently released an internal poll of her own showing her trailing Hodes by a mere 43-39 margin. Yes, we’re looking at the results of two partisan pollsters, but I’ll take an Anzalone survey over a cheapo Public Opinion Strategies poll any day of the week.

Here are some bonus numbers: Jeanne Shaheen holds a 55-38 lead over John Sununu in the district, and Obama is leading by 52-39.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

UPDATE: And yeah, I saw that new Rasmussen poll showing Shaheen trailing Sununu by a whopping seven-point margin. This one has “funky outlier” written all over it.

A Public Opinion Strategies poll done for the NRCC has Paul Hodes only up 43%-39% over right wing Republican talk radio host in NH-02.  Now if you adjust this for partisan bias, you get a 47%-35% lead for Hodes, but that still is not overly comforting in this blue district that John Kerry won by six points in 2004 and will need to go for Barack Obama for the same margin if he is going to eke out a win in the state.  

Having to defend Shea-Porter in NH-01 is annoying enough, but having to worry about both seats in this blue trending state is a real pain in the ass.  I cant imagine this state wanting to give control of their whole delegation back to the Republicans.  Watch for other polls in this race.  If Hodes’ lead is this small in public polls, then we can worry.  

Crossposted with different title and a few clarifying edits from Blue Hampshire.

It appears that the GoOPers in high places have decided to put their heft behind Nashua right-wing radio talk show host Jennifer Horn to go against Paul Hodes in the second district of New Hampshire.  I say this because unlike earlier challenger, lawyer and veteran Jim Steiner, Horn’s candidacy has arrived with great fanfare, with the NRCC putting the Telegraph article on their site, an up-column mention from DiStaso in the Union Leader, and a feature from the Republico Politico, which, without any empirical evidence, declares her the “emerging as an early front-runner” and boasts:

National Republicans have been attempting to recruit her into the race for several months. She currently faces a nominal primary challenge from attorney Jim Steiner, though other candidates could emerge before the June filing deadline.

So, what’s Jennifer Horn’s candidacy in a nut-shell?

She said she entered the race because “it’s time we stop electing lawyers and politicians and people who have spent their entire lives setting themselves up for the next office.”

Yes, by all means, let’s not elect lawyers to the legislative branch of government.

And given the above statement, I’m somewhat amazed at the fawning eulogy she gave to career politician Charlie BassMaster at his defeat. Clearly what the law-making branch of our government needs is less experts on laws and public servants, and more right-wing talk show hosts.

What does she think of Paul Hodes?

“Paul Hodes is a do-nothing representative in a do-nothing Congress,” she said.

Quite a piece of shop-worn candidate rhetoric for someone framing herself as an ordinary person outside the beltway.  For those of you looking beyond the slogans of politicians, check out this graph of how the 2006-elected Blue Wave (of which Paul Hodes is frosh president, btw) stacks up against career politician Charlie Bass’ freshman year with the Gingrich-led Contract with America in 1994:

By all means, throw out the do-nothing lawyers and bring in the Gingrich-style ideologues.  That’ll drain the swamp and get things done.  And is back-bencher Bass available for an encore?

Former Republican Rep. Charlie Bass’ service in Congress can be called many things (“disingenuous” and “Bush-enabling” being my top two), but you've gotta give the Bassmaster some credit where credit is due for some straight-up honesty:

Charlie Bass, who lost to Hodes last year after serving five terms, isn't sounding like a candidate for a rematch.

“Life after Congress is not bad,” said Bass, now executive director of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a Washington-based organization focused on getting moderate Republicans elected.

“I haven't ruled anything out, but, frankly, I think that if the election were held today, the outcome might be worse for me than it was last November. I'm not making any decisions at this point.” (emphasis added)

Couldn’t have said it any better myself, Charles.

(H/T: Dean Barker)

The Hill published an article highlighting some of the fundraising efforts of freshmen Democrats in the House.  Apparently, many are doing quite well.  David Loebsack (IA-02) has raised about $71,000.  Kirsten Gillebrand (NY-20) has raised $65,000 in PAC money alone.  Earl Perlmutter (CO-07) has raised $79,000.  Charlie Wilson (OH-06) has raised $34,000.  Paul Hodes has raised $35,000.  Jason Altmire (PA-04) and Patrick Murphy (PA-08) have both raised $50,000 in PAC money alone.  Zack Space (OH-18) and Steven Kagen (WI-08) have both raised $35,000 in PAC money.

As far as simple financial numbers go, this is good news.  All of these candidates are vulnerable to some degree.  So, if all of these House members are already off to good starts, they may be able to force out potentially strong challenges early on.

But the article also has some worrying relevations.  For one thing, Nancy Boyda (KS-02) has raised only $13,000.  Considering the presidential vote in her district (Bush won it by 20 points), Boyda is probably one of our top five most vulnerable Democrats.  Plus, she will not have Sebelius’ coattails helping her and will instead have to contend with the Republican tide at the top of the ticket from the eventual Republican nominee and Senator Pat Roberts. Finally, she will possibly face a rematch against Jim Ryun. More over the flip…

However, the thing that is more disappointing to me than Boyda’s numbers (it’s early, give her some time) is where the other candidates are getting there money.  First, relying heavily on PAC money does not give the best image.  But beyond that, it’s a question of which PACs they’re getting donations from.

Both Gillebrand and Perlmutter have taken money from Altria, which represents the makers of Marlboro cigarettes. Loebsack and Perlmutter have received contributions from the American Bankers Association PAC while Perlmutter also has donations from Comcast and JP Morgan and Loebsack has donations from the American Association of Realtors.

It’s unsettling to see any elected officials taking money from cigarette makers.  It’s worse to see Democrats, liberal Democrats at that, doing that.  And while Comcast, et al. aren’t the scourge of Satan, I also don’t like the image of elected Democrats at their beg and call.

http://www.thehill.c…

My suggestion for anyone else who feels the way I do, is to donate through the Netroots and other liberal PACs like MoveOn and Democracy for America.  The more candidates and elected officials can get from the Netroots, the less they have to rely on PACs whose goals are sometimes/often/always contrary to the goals of progressives/working people/middle class/etc.

One should also note that Netroots heroes Jerry McNerney (CA-11), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), John Yarmuth (KY-03), Joe Sestak (PA-07), John Hall (NY-19), and Tim Walz (MN-01) are not mentioned in the article.  We need to act now to keep these people a)in Congress by making sure they have adequate resources to be re-elected and b)from becoming corrupted by negative interests.