We need another “Use It Or Lose It” campaign

On Saturday a fundraising solicitation arrived in the mail from Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. It asked me to confirm delivery of the enclosed “supporter card” within ten days, and also to “help keep my 2008 re-election campaign on the road to victory” with a special contribution.

Funny, I wasn’t aware that Harkin needed any extra help. Everyone in the election forecasting business has labeled this seat safe for him. The available polling shows Harkin with a comfortable lead.

According to Open Secrets, Harkin had $4.1 million cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. His little-known Republican opponent, Christopher Reed, has raised a total of $11,765 for his Senate campaign and had $292 (two hundred and ninety-two dollars) on hand as of June 30.

Harkin’s letter got me thinking that we need a “Use It Or Lose It” campaign for 2008.

In 2006, MyDD and MoveOn.org launched a “Use It Or Lose It” campaign to contact “ultra-safe Democratic House Representatives and ask them to help fully fund all of our competitive challengers this cycle.” The project spurred at least $2.3 million in additional major donations from House incumbents (click the link to read details).

A similar project targeted at safe incumbents in the House and Senate has the potential to raise even more money this year.

The Democratic House and Senate campaign committees have been crushing their Republican counterparts in fundraising. At the end of the second quarter, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had about $46.2 million cash on hand, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $54.7 million cash on hand. As of June 30, the DSCC had about twice the cash on hand as the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and the DCCC had six times the cash on hand as the National Republican Congressional Committee.

But we should be able to outspend the Republicans even more if our Democrats in safe seats donate more to the relevant committees.

Everyone agrees that the Democrats have an unusually large number of solid pickup opportunities. Here’s the Swing State Project list of competitive Senate races. All them are Republican-held but one (Louisiana), and that one is “lean Democratic.” Only one Democratic-held seat (New Jersey) is even on the “races to watch” list.

Look at the most recent Senate forecast by Chris Bowers. He’s projecting a pickup of six seats. He also lists ten “Democratic held, uncompetitive locks”:

Arkansas (Pryor), Delaware (Biden), Illinois (Durbin), Iowa (Harkin), Massachusetts (Kerry), Michigan (Levin), Montana (Baucus), Rhode Island (Reed), South Dakota (Johnson), West Virginia (Rockefeller)

I haven’t added up the cash on hand numbers for all those incumbents from the latest FEC filings, but it must total many millions of dollars.

In the past six weeks, the DSCC has sent out many fundraising e-mails touting “11 battleground states” (Alaska, Colorado, Kentucky, Maine, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia).

How many more Senate races could become more competitive if the DSCC were able to put significant resources behind our candidates? Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Georgia immediately come to mind.

The netroots are already working hard to promote Democratic challengers for Republican-held seats. Daily Kos has featured 10 House and four Senate candidates in its “Orange to Blue” ActBlue page. MyDD is raising money for five Senate candidates on its “Road to 60” ActBlue page. SenateGuru even went “on strike” until readers donated enough to three of eleven candidates on SenateGuru’s ActBlue page.

But it’s likely that Tom Harkin alone could donate more to the DSCC than all of the donors to all of those ActBlue pages combined.

Not only that, but safe Democratic incumbents sitting on huge war chests could do a lot for legislative candidates in their home states. A few thousand dollars can go very far in a statehouse race.

I don’t mean to pick on Harkin. (After all, he was the only senator to have the guts to vote against confirming Gen. David Petraeus as the new chief of U.S. Central Command last month.)

More to the point, I know Harkin is already helping other Democrats. He has reportedly donated to the Iowa Democratic Party’s GOTV efforts. Over the weekend he held a joint event with Becky Greenwald, the Democratic candidate in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district. He’s holding a fundraiser with Rob Hubler, candidate in Iowa’s fifth Congressional district, this Thursday. Earlier this summer, he gave $2,000 each to five Iowa House and five Iowa Senate candidates, plus an extra $5,000 to two candidates who received the most votes from constituents in Harkin’s “Building Blue” contest. I hear rumors that Harkin will hold fundraisers for other Democratic candidates in key Iowa statehouse races, or perhaps donate substantial amounts to the Iowa House and Senate Democratic leadership funds.

For all I know Harkin has already donated a substantial amount to the DSCC as well. I couldn’t find a list of Senate incumbents who have given to that fund.

But still–Harkin had more than $4.1 million in the bank at the end of June, which is more than 14,000 times the amount his Republican challenger had in the bank. Couldn’t Harkin dig a little deeper to help the DSCC get behind Scott Kleeb, Jim Slattery, Andrew Rice and other good Democrats?

While I’ve talked primarily about Senate races in this diary, of course a potential “Use It Or Lose It” 2008 campaign should also focus on some House incumbents. The DCCC has reserved ad time in 51 districts so far, and only 17 of those are Democratic-held. (Click here for the first wave of DCCC ad buys and here to see the 20 districts targeted in the second wave.) I take that to mean that the DCCC feels confident about holding more than 200 of our House seats.

There have to be at least 150 House Democrats who meet the “ultra safe” standard and should be putting more of their campaign funds into the DCCC pot.

Look at Swing State Project’s list of competitive House races. Four Republican-held seats are in the “lean Democrat” category, another 11 are “tossups”, another 17 are “lean Republican,” and at least two dozen more could become competitive with more money for Democratic challengers to spend. Meanwhile, no Democratic-held seats are in the “lean R” category, and only two are even rated tossups.

How many of those Lean R or Likely R races can we break open with more money for challengers to spend? How many races not even on Swing State Project’s list right now could become surprise wins for us, along the lines of NH-01 in 2006?

For instance, Swing State Project’s list does not currently include the two Republican-held seats in Iowa, but in my opinion both Becky Greenwald in IA-04 and Rob Hubler in IA-05 have a chance to win in a strong Democratic year. (I explain why here and here.)

I look forward to reading your thoughts and comments on a possible Use It Or Lose It campaign. Bob Brigham had some great suggestions earlier today at MyDD:

1. The earlier the better. Getting the money moving now helps a great deal with budgeting. Money spent just after Labor Day is worth far more than a last minute spree just before the election.

2. When it comes to lose it for senators, I wouldn’t just focus on those with a safe race this year, but those who left 2006 with big warchests.

3. I think after they pay up, they should be made a secondary ask to their supporters to get involved in local federal races. This is easy to do. Yet since most out of state money comes from blue, urban areas, this segment could be asked to Adopt-A-Race.

MyDD user Ramo already thought of a reasonable proposal for the senators:

If you’re Landrieu, Lautenburg, or Obama, we’re not asking for anything.  If you’re vulnerable in 2010 (Boxer, Salazar, Dorgan, Reid, and Feingold), we’re asking for 3% of your CoH.  If you’re vulnerable in 2012, we’re asking for 7% (McCaskill, Tester, Conrad, Menendez, Brown, and Webb).  Otherwise, 10%.

That would net us $9.693 million.

NC-Sen: DSCC Goes Up on the Air

The DSCC is going on the air with their first ad in North Carolina’s Senate race, designed to drive up Elizabeth Dole’s negatives:

From the AP:

The ads set to begin airing Friday evening across the state indicate how much the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is willing to invest in the North Carolina race. Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan has less than half the cash available to spend against Dole, and she can’t match the national profile held by the Republican incumbent who is finishing her first six-year term. […]

The committee would not comment on the ads and declined to say how much the group plans to spend. Multiple North Carolina television stations confirmed that the ad buy requested airtime starting Friday and through Aug. 11. Dole’s campaign said its own media research estimated the cost at $400,000.

(H/T: bear83)

OR-Sen: DSCC Reserves $850K in Cable Ad Time

From Roll Call:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has reserved more than $847,000 in cable advertising time for the fall in Oregon, presumably to boost state Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) in his bid to dethrone Sen. Gordon Smith (R).

The DSCC declined to comment, as is the committee’s custom when asked to discuss advertising. But according to information obtained by Roll Call, the DSCC plans to advertise on cable television Sept. 2 to Nov. 4 in five markets, including Bend, Eugene, Medford and Portland.

The DSCC’s buy also includes the Yakima, Wash., market, which hits only a small percentage of Oregon cable television viewers but includes Smith’s hometown of Pendleton. Among the cable networks included in the DSCC’s buy are CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, ESPN, ESPN2, TLC, the Food Network, Lifetime, TNT, TBS, MTV and VH1.

That’s just a taste of the expenditures to come in this race, where the DSCC will be flexing its cash-on-hand advantage on Merkley’s behalf this fall.

Committees Issue May Reports; Good Month for GOP

You all knew it was inevitable: at some point, Democratic donors, exhausted by the finally-concluded presidential primary and looking into their empty wallets, would take a little breather from giving, allowing the GOP to play catch-up.

Fear not, though, fellow downballot enthusiasts: most of the damage occurred at the DNC vs. RNC level. The DSCC and DCCC had still slightly better months of May than their Republican counterparts, and they maintain towering edges in cash-on-hand.

Committee May Receipts May Disbursements May Cash-on-Hand May Debts & Obligations
DSCC (est.) $5,920,000.00 $4,950,000.00 $38,530,000.00 $0.00
NRSC (est.) $4,890,000.00 $2,700,000.00 $21,560,000.00 $0.00
DCCC $6,091,737.14 $4,192,275.05 $47,174,105.00 $0.00
NRCC $5,017,140.54 $5,096,869.15 $6,654,801.50 $0.00
DNC $4,795,890.97 $5,263,698.72 $3,965,886.11 $6,306.93
RNC $24,377,740.11 $11,513,030.77 $53,508,001.57 $0.00
Total Democrats $16,807,628.11 $14,405,973.77 $89,669,991.11 $6,306.93
Total Republicans $34,284,880.65 $19,309,899.92 $81,722,803.07 $0.00

Ordinarily, I wouldn’t worry too much about the DNC/RNC chasm: the DNC has consistently lagged the RNC lately. That points to one of the most remarkable things about the Obama campaign: for most people, the Obama website has become top-of-mind for direct giving, leading to a bypass of the DNC.

One potential warning sign I see on the horizon, though, is the RNC turning around and allocating a lot of its money to Congressional races, as it realizes that its last best shot at preventing Democratic hegemony is in the Senate by holding GOP losses to 3 or 4 there. If polling continues to go south for McCain along the same trajectory as the last couple weeks, it’s not out of the question that the RNC will consider writing down the McCain campaign as a casualty loss, in order to bolster the likes of Gordon Smith and Roger Wicker.

Schumer & Van Hollen Talk Shop

DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer and DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen briefed reporters in Washington today about the state of 2008’s downballot races.  Their commentary was nothing especially groundbreaking for anyone who reads the Swing State Project, but Schumer did reveal a “target ranking” that should be of interest.  MSNBC’s First Read has the scoop:

Schumer, chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, said the DSCC is challenging in 17 of 23 GOP-held seats, including eight he believes Democrats have a solid chance in and nine others where he thinks they can be competitive. […]

Here’s the picture for the DSCC provided by Schumer:

Top targets: VA, NH, NM, CO, AK. (Schumer says they are ahead here.)

Second tier: OR, MN, ME. (These are blue states; Democrats are not ahead, but are competitive.)

Red-state seats in striking range: KY, NC, MS.

Good candidates with an outside chance: NE, KS, OK, GA, ID, TX. (Schumer says of Texas that he likes Noriega as a candidate and that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn is polling surprisingly low.)

Potentially, that’s a very wide net to play with.  Only the two Wyoming seats, Thad Cochran, Jeff Sessions, Lindsey Graham and Lamar Alexander are definitely off the table in the DSCC’s eyes.

Congress 2008: time to decouple from the presidential race?

The spat between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama shows no sign of ending anytime soon.  McCain is going to win this election, likely by 6-10%.  Obama is damaged goods and Hillary’s negative are simply too high.  I believe voters are in the process of rejecting both candidates.

And I don’t think there’s a realistic way of getting through McCain’s huge teflon coating and getting swing voters to doudt his :maverick” image.

So how does this impact the Congressional elections?  Right now, not yet.  But it’s important that this long battle between Obama and Clinton could weaken the Democratic brand.  And I actually think Barack Obama would more of a drag on downballot races than Clinton would be.

I know that’s contrary to the CW, but I just don’t think Hillary Clinton is as radioactive to other Democrats.

So the leaders of the DSCC and DCCC have to make a decision.  How and when to separate from the presidential race?  And waht about the 527s who are about to pour millions in to a likely hopeless presidential election?  Will they save enough for House and Senate races?

So I’m ready to forget about the presidential election and concentrate on Congress.  Then, what’s the best way do this?

1.  The fundamental dynamics still favor Democrats.  We must still run on the economy, offering relief from the foreclosure crisis and ending giveaways.  I would like to see a united Democratic proposal on health care.

2.  Instead of just opposing Iraq, emphasize our opposition to Republicans’ “war-first” approach, and tie the current economic climate to this costly war on Iraq.

3.  Most importantly, we can’t run away from Democratic values and principles.  On most issues, the Democrats are still favored.

4.  More leadership needs to forthcoming, starting with the removal of Debbie Dubya from the Red-to-Blue Committee.  That’s an unconscionable conflict of interest.

Any other thoughts?  I know, writing off the Presidency is a huge step, but we may have to settle for winning enough seats in Congress to keep McCain in check (that’s another issue for another post).

More Q4-2007 Numbers from the Senate Races

[First, a cheap plug for my blog

Senate 2008 Guru: Following the Races.
]

Starting off with the big one, DSCC vs. NRSC:

DSCC 2007 FEC Filing

Total Raised 4rd Q: $13.3 million

Total Raised in December: $6.1 million

Total Raised in 2007: $55.4 million

Cash on Hand: $29.4 million

Debt: $1.5 million

NRSC 2007 FEC Filing

Total Raised 4rd Q: $8.4 million

Total Raised in December: $3.1 million

Total Raised in 2007: $31.8 million

Cash on Hand: $12.1 million

As of the end of 2007, the DSCC’s cash-on-hand-minus-debt compared to the NRSC’s is $27.9 million to $12.1 million.  Massive!

NM-Sen:

Tom Udall (D): $1 million Q4, $1.7 million on hand

Steve Pearce (R): $425,000 Q4, $820,000 on hand

Heather Wilson (R): $515 Q4, $1.1 million on hand

Udall raised more in Q4 than Pearce and Wilson combined!

ID-Sen:

Larry LaRocco (D): $166,000 Q4, $200,000 on hand

Jim Risch (R): $236,000 Q4, $171,000 on hand

Even in Idaho, the Democrat has more on hand than the Republican!

CO-Sen:

Mark Udall (D): $1.1 million Q4, $3.6 million on hand

Bob Schaffer (R): $673,000 Q4, $1.5 million on hand

The Republican raised only 60% of the Democrat in Q4 and has less than half the cash on hand of the Democrat.

AR-Sen:

Mark Pryor (D): $616,000 Q4, $3.6 million on hand

The GOP can’t find an opponent for Pryor.

KS-Sen:

Greg Orman (D): $450,000 in December alone (recently entered race)

NH-Sen:

Jeanne Shaheen (D): $1.2 million Q4, $1.15 million on hand

John Sununu (R): $922,000 Q4, $3.42 million on hand

Another race where the Democratic challenger outraised the Republican incumbent.

VA-Sen:

Mark Warner (D): $2.7 million Q4, $2.9 million on hand

I’m guessing that Republican Jim Gilmore will report significantly less.

MI-Sen:

Carl Levin (D): $840,000 Q4, almost $5 million on hand

Levin should face only token GOP opposition.

IA-Sen:

Tom Harkin (D): $802,000 Q4, $3.4 million on hand

ME-Sen:

Tom Allen (D): $813,000 Q4, $2.5 million on hand

Susan Collins (R): $965,000 Q4, $3.9 million on hand

Want to help Democrats expand the map of competitive races?  Send a few bucks their way!

DSCC Trounces NRSC in March & Q1 Fundraising

(From the diaries. – promoted by James L.)

Numbers courtesy of The Washington Post and the Senate 2008 Guru.

January ’07
DSCC: $2.2 million
NRSC: $0.9 million

February ’07
DSCC: $2.7 million
NRSC: $2.4 million

March ’07
DSCC: $8.8 million
NRSC: $3.7 million

Q1 Take
DSCC: $13.7 million
NRSC: $ 7.0 million

Cash-on-hand at end of March ’07
DSCC: $9.50 million ($6 million debt)
NRSC: $3.45 million ($0 debt)

Observations:
1) DSCC had a better March than the NRSC had for its entire Q1
2) DSCC’s cash-on-hand advantage is larger than the debt difference (so let’s pay off some of that debt and get it out of the way!)
3) Who has the momentum is clear.