Tag: AZ-08

• CT-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons needs to look like one of those allegedly-not-quite-extinct moderate New England Republicans in order to get elected in Connecticut, but he’s not doing himself any favors by appearing with Newt Gingrich at the annual Prescott Bush Awards Dinner. With a large Puerto Rican population in Connecticut, Simmons probably doesn’t want to be anywhere near Sonia Sotomayor’s loudest and most toxic critic. Another problem for Simmons: businessman Tom Foley, the former ambassador to Ireland, made his official entry into the GOP primary field today. Foley, unlike Simmons, has deep pockets he can self-fund with.

• MN-Sen: Sources close to Norm Coleman are suggesting he won’t appeal at the federal level if he loses his case with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Republicans still publicly say they’ll try to stop any Dem efforts to seat Al Franken until Coleman has conceded or exhausted his appeals. John Cornyn has sent some mixed signals, though, saying it’s “entirely” Coleman’s decision whether to keep fighting and that he’s “amazed that Sen. Coleman’s been willing to persevere as long as he has.”

• NV-Sen: Wondering why the GOP is having a hard time attracting a challenger to supposedly-vulnerable Harry Reid? Maybe it’s because of his deep levels of support among much of the state’s Republican establishment. The Reid camp released a list of 60 GOP endorsers, including, most prominently, soon-to-be-ex-First Lady (and former NV-02 candidate) Dawn Gibbons, Reno mayor Bob Cashell, and, in a move guaranteed to nail down the key 18-29 demographic, Wayne Newton.

• NH-Sen: Could it be that the NRSC could actually be stuck running Ovide Lamontagne against Rep. Paul Hodes? Just the very fact that the NRSC is talking to Lamontagne (a businessman whose one claim to fame is losing the 1996 governor’s race to Jeanne Shaheen) with an apparently straight face should be a red flag that their top-tier possibilities (ex-Sen. John Sununu, ex-Rep. Charlie Bass) aren’t looking likely.

• NY-Sen-B: Joe Biden reportedly had a sit-down earlier this week with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who may or may not be running in the Senate primary against Kirsten Gillibrand. Presumably the meeting would contain some of the same content as Barack Obama’s now-famous phone call to Rep. Steve Israel.

• OH-Sen: If a candidate falls in the woods with no one around, does he make a sound? State Rep. Tyrone Yates has been exploring the Senate race for several months, and apparently found nothing that would help him overcome Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and SoS Jennifer Brunner, as he bowed out of the race.

• NJ-Gov: Rasmussen has the first post-primary poll of the New Jersey governor’s race. Chris Christie may have gotten a bit of a brief unity bounce in the wake of his primary victory, as he’s up to a 51-38 edge over Jon Corzine now, as opposed to 47-38 last month. There’s one spot of ‘good’ news, as it were, for Corzine: his approval rating is back up to 42%.

• AZ-08: Construction company executive and ex-Marine Jesse Kelly seems to be the establishment GOP’s choice to go against Rep. Gabrielle Giffords in 2010. He announced endorsements from three House members: Trent Franks, Duncan Hunter, and Frank Wolf. (Not quite clear how endorsements from Hunter and Wolf help him in Arizona, though.)

• KS-01: State Senator Jim Barnett got into the race for the seat being vacated by Rep. Jerry Moran, who’s running for Senate. Barnett may quickly become front-runner, based on his name recognition from being the 2006 GOP gubernatorial candidate (where he lost the state as a whole to Kathleen Sebelius, but won the dark-red 1st). He’s up against a more conservative state Senator Tim Huelskamp, and Sam Brownback’s former chief of staff, Rob Wasinger. The primary is the whole shooting match in this R+23 district.

• KY-01: After the purchase of “whitfieldforsenate.com” got people’s attention yesterday, Rep. Ed Whitfield had to tamp that down, confirming that he’s running for re-election in his R+15 House seat.

• MN-06: Even if this goes nowhere, it’s great to have a GOPer doing our framing for us… attorney Chris Johnston is publicly mulling a primary challenge to (his words, on his website) “‘anti-American’ hurling, malaprop-spouting, ‘they took me out of context'” Rep. Michele Bachmann. He confirms that he and Bachmann share “strong conservative beliefs;” he just thinks the 6th would prefer someone “who thinks before they speak.”

• NH-02: Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is launching an exploratory committee to run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Paul Hodes. St. Rep. John DeJoie is already in the primary field, and they may soon be joined by Katrina Swett.

• NY-03: Dems are scoping out potential candidates in Long Island’s NY-03 (which fell to R+4 in the wake of 2008), thinking that even if Rep. Peter King doesn’t vacate to run for Senate he’s still vulnerable. The biggest fish would be Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi, who seems to have bigger fish to fry (reportedly AG if Andrew Cuomo vacates). The next-biggest fish would Nassau Co. DA Kathleen Rice. Smaller fish listed include Isobel Coleman of the Council of Foreign Relations, and minor league baseball team owner Frank Boulton.

• NH-Legislature: It took a rewrite of a couple sentences that Gov. John Lynch didn’t like, but after a few weeks of back-and-forth New Hampshire finally enacted gay marriage. Both chambers passed the amended bill yesterday (clearing the House 198-176) and Lynch signed it into law on the same day.

(DavidNYC and Crisitunity contributed to the writing of this post.)

We made these changes on Friday night, but haven’t had the opportunity to post our full write-ups until now. Here goes:

AZ-01 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

Essentially, Republicans ceded this race the moment that former Arizona state Senate President Ken Bennett declined to run for the open seat of “retiring” GOP Rep. Rick Renzi. In his place, Republicans are running Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay, a truly D-grade candidate whose sharply right-wing views would make Randy Graf smile with pride. Most starkly, Hay has only raised $363,000 compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s $1.68 million. With the DCCC spending liberally against Hay, the end result is poised to look ugly for the GOP here. (James L.)

AZ-08 (Giffords): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

This is a case of good candidate, wrong year for the Republicans: they convinced state senate president Tim Bee to run against freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in this R+1 district. Bee came in with something of a moderate image, but that was frittered away through a public tussle with Jim Kolbe, the Republican occupant of this seat prior to Giffords (probably over Bee’s support for a gay marriage amendment to the Arizona constitution) and having to have a Bush visit to help with fundraising.

In a normal year, the GOP could have made a strong race of it, even with these few unforced errors. Given the broader trends this year, though, and the GOP’s more pressing problems on defense, Bee simply got washed away… and acknowledging their chances, the NRCC just pulled out of this race. (Crisitunity)

CA-04 (Open): Lean Republican to Tossup

Hopes have been high for Charlie Brown’s second run at this seat in the Sacramento suburbs, after he narrowly lost to corrupt John Doolittle in 2006. Unfortunately (for Brown’s chances), Doolittle subsequently retired, meaning that Brown would instead be running in 2008 against ‘generic R’ in a dark-red R+11 district.

Fortunately for Brown, though, ‘generic R’ didn’t show up, and instead he found himself running against ‘conservative icon’ Tom McClintock, who between his name-recognition and access to money was supposed to have been a formidable opponent may just be too laughable and over-the-top even for this district. First off, McClintock is from southern California and hasn’t bothered moving to the district yet. He seems to have little intention of unpacking his bags even if he wins, as he’s keeping various accounts for 2010 statewide offices open.

Things just haven’t gelled for McClintock; not only has he trailed Brown in all polls except his own internals, but he’s almost out of money, as he finished the third quarter with only $94,000 cash on hand. The district lean here should disqualify a Democrat from picking up this seat, but by any objective measure, Brown is poised to be able to do it. (C)

FL-16 (Mahoney): Lean Republican to Likely Republican

This is an ugly, awful race with an ugly, awful candidate on the Dem line who really ought to spare himself, his family, his constituents, and his nominal party a whole lot of embarrassment by resigning. We’ll have a shot here again in the future.

One point I’d like to make in passing, though, is that if Dave Lutrin, who was a short-lived primary opponent of Mahoney’s back in 2006, thought his cause was just, he should never have dropped out. I’m really tired of claims that Rahm Emanuel somehow “pushed” Lutrin out of the race.

This isn’t a third-world country. His family wasn’t threatened. In America, if you want to run for office, you run. Some people might make things difficult for you, but that’s called politics. And we also have excellent proof that such a course of action by no means has to be quixotic – just look at Reps. Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter. In other words, there’s no excuse for giving up just because Rahm allegedly likes someone else better than you. (David)

FL-24 (Feeney): Tossup to Lean Democratic

Who would have ever thought that the first Republican incumbent to fall off the cliff and into the no-man’s land of “Lean Dem” would be someone other than Don Young? Tom Feeney was one of the few representatives tarred with the brush of Abramoff to survive 2006 and then decide to try again in 2008. Until recently, however, with Jack Abramoff disappearing in the rear-view mirror and Feeney safely ensconced in an R+3 district that he designed for himself while in the state legislature, it looked like he was going to skate through.

As Republican fortunes in general started to dwindle this summer, though, Feeney found former state representative Suzanne Kosmas gaining on him. So, he did exactly what any rational politican would do… he issued an ad reminding everyone of his involvement in the Abramoff affair and begging forgiveness for it. Wait… what? That’s not what a rational politician would do? Hmmm.

From that point on, everything seemed to go haywire for Feeney, and another Kosmas internal from last week gave her a head-spinning 58-35 lead over Feeney. This week would have been the time for Feeney to issue his own internal as a rebuttal… and his silence on the matter is extremely telling. Even in a good year for Republicans, this would be a difficult hole for Feeney to climb out of, but this year, it’d be nearly impossible. (C)

FL-25 (M. Diaz-Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

This one is all about demographics. What was once a Cuban-American GOP stronghold has turned into a pure tossup district, at least according to the latest voter registration numbers. Recent polling shows Diaz-Balart up by only three points and well below 50%, and the DCCC is spending heavily against both Diaz-Balart brothers (while the NRCC has been focusing solely on protecting Lincoln with massive independent expenditures). This one feels hard to predict, making it a perfect tossup. (J)

ID-01 (Sali): Lean Republican to Tossup

Well, here we are – a place I distantly imagined we might possibly reach but am nonetheless quite surprised (and delighted) to be. The race for Idaho’s first Congressional District is a tossup, my friends, and this is a race rating change you can believe in.

Bill Sali has done for Democrats what even the lovechild of FDR and Howard Dean never could have: He’s made a seat that’s supremely conservative extremely competitive. As we’ve explained at great length, Sali is the perfect fuckup, capable of doing no right.

Meanwhile, Dem Walt Minnick has been an ideal candidate running a nearly flawless campaign. He’s scored support from a broad range of conservatives furious with Sali’s antics and ineffectiveness, and he’s picked up endorsements from the region’s most important papers (see here and here). What’s more, the polling (particularly a recent SUSA survey) has shown a tight race. We think Minnick has put himself in an excellent position to win this race and are eager to follow the returns on election night. (D)

KY-03 (Yarmuth): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

In any other cycle, this race would have been a barnburner: A popular, longtime incumbent narrowly upset in a wave election by a first-time candidate wages a serious comeback in a swing district. The problem is that this isn’t just any ordinary cycle. Indeed, it’s looking like a vale of tears for all of the Republican retreads who are seeking rematches this year.

But Northup is a special case – she was actually a replacement candidate against John Yarmuth, after her bitterly humiliating primary loss to corrupt Gov. Ernie Fletcher in 2007. Northup’s fundraising network may still be intact, but her political appeal isn’t. Yarmuth, who is proving to be a great fit for this district, has led comfortably in five straight SUSA polls.

Once you factor in top-of-the-ticket excitement in Louisville, the chances of Northup pulling this one off seem remote indeed. Hopefully, with three shattering losses in just twenty-four months, we won’t be seeing much more of Anne any time soon. (D)

NY-24 (Arcuri): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

We’ve heard very little all cycle long in this sleepy race. When last we checked in half a year ago, malfunctioning NRCC robot Ken Spain was busy telling the world that Mike Arcuri would be vulnerable unless the DCCC spent its entire $44 million warchest to defend him.

Actual DCCC expenditures on this race? $00,000,000.00. That sort of tells you all you need to know. Rep. Mike Arcuri has raised solidly if not spectacularly ($1.5m), but that’s been more than enough to keep his Republican opponent Richard Hanna at bay. Arcuri is likely to hold this seat for a long time to come. (D)

OH-15 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

After a paper-thin margin in 2006, this R+1 district in Democratic-trending Columbus was considered a prime pickup opportunity. Once incumbent Deborah Pryce decided to flee for the hills (actually, K Street is pretty flat, come to think of it) and county commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy came back for another try, many prognosticators thought this was the Dems’ single-best pickup chance. Subsequent retirements (NY-25) and retirements/sex scandals/untimely deaths/party meltdowns (NY-13) moved it down the list a bit, but it always looked good for the Dems.

The GOP scored big, though, by nailing their desired candidate, moderate state senator Steve Stivers. Polls never showed a big edge for Kilroy, and Kilroy got pinned down with various weird minutiae (like controversies over bids to build a baseball stadium and the radical leftist pamphlet alternative weekly she used to edit) that kept her from building much momentum.

However, the general trend toward the Dems seems to have pushed this race into the Lean Dem column in the last month, with polls moving in Kilroy’s direction and the NRCC, in triage mode, more focused on saving incumbents than open seats. Throw in pro-life independent Don Eckhart making Stivers’ task even more difficult, and this becomes a race where a GOP victory would, at this point, be quite surprising. (C)

OH-18 (Space): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Republicans thumped their chest pretty loudly after 2006 that Democrat Zack Space had a fluke victory and would be quickly dispatched with by a top-tier challenger in 2008. Well, it’s 2008, and we see no top-tier challenger here. We do see a sadsack nobody who has raised a whopping $332,000 in a year and a half since kicking off his campaign. That’s simply not enough to topple a Representative who, by most reviews, has been a good fit for his district and has provided superior constituent services.

Memo to Republicans: Better luck next year. (J)

The DCCC hasn’t spent an especially large amount in defense of freshman Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (just $350K according to our IE tracker), and it seems that they won’t be spending much more:

In southeastern Arizona’s 8th District, incumbent Rep. Gabrielle Giffords denounced a Democratic committee ad that criticized the bus company belonging to Republican Tim Bee’s family.

The ad said the bus company has substandard service, lacks trained drivers and left children unsupervised, and that Bee “should be ashamed of himself.”

The committee pulled the ad as soon as it was aware of Giffords’ displeasure and replaced it with a different one, the Democratic committee’s Crider said.

The committee won’t run any more ads for Giffords after the current ad buys run out.

While we haven’t seen any recent polls from this race, I’ll take the DCCC’s less-than-heavy investment and their decision not to use all of their $705K ad reservation as a good sign for Giffords.

Update: Sounds like they’ll be cutting back on 5th District expenditures, too:

While Republicans have expressed confidence in Schweikert’s ability to unseat Mitchell, the DCCC doesn’t think it’s going to happen.

Accordingly, according to the insider, the DCCC’s ad presence in the 5th district is also going to be “drastically reduced” prior to election day.

The focus for the DCCC in Arizona is now the 3rd Congressional District race, where Bob Lord is attempting to defeat the seven term Republican incumbent, U.S. Rep. John Shadegg. The DCCC, which was once reluctant to put money behind what many considered a long shot candidacy, has pumped hundreds of thousands of dollars into the district in recent weeks.

The DCCC filed $1.37 million worth in media buys in support of Democratic House candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has aired ads in AZ-08, FL-16, KY-02, MD-01, and VA-11.

The lone GOP-friendly media buy comes from the bastards at the American Academy of Ophthalmology, which is dropping cash in support of Republican Bill Cassidy (himself an MD) in his race against Don Cazayoux. See you in hell, eye doctors!

But don’t get the impression that this is one-sided affair just because the NRCC is holding its musket fire. Freedom’s Crotch is up with some ad buys of its own smearing Democrats:

• AL-02: $150,000
  

• IL-11: $430,000
  

• NJ-03: $74,000
  

• NJ-07: $500,000

The Crotch is also spending an unspecified amount on NM-01 and NV-03. Ugh.

Tim Bee is desperate for money. That’s why he sucked it up and asked his political hero, George W. Bush, to fly out to his district and raise a reported $600,000 for his campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

But Tim Bee isn’t the only one hurting for funds. In a recent editorial by the Tucson Citizen, the paper is raking Bee over the coals for the costs of Bush’s swanky private fundraiser at a posh home in the Catalina foothills: $99,000 for the services of 161 police officers and 165 sheriff’s deputies over the course of two days in July. From the editorial:

Bee is a third-generation Tucsonan with a fine record of public service, but his campaign now is tapping our community’s public safety resources and not giving back. That’s wrong. And we expect better from Bee.

His staff needs to pull some money out of that $600,000 windfall and put it back where it belongs: in the budgets of our local law enforcement agencies.

In tight economic times like these, that’s the only appropriate response. Public safety officers cannot be used for purely private security.

The Arizona Daily Star agrees, and has also called for Bee’s campaign to reimburse taxpayers. The only problem? Bee will have none of such talk, as his campaign says that they have “no plans” on reimbursing the city of Tucson or Pima County for the security costs.

And it’s no small wonder why Bee is holding firm: According to his pre-primary report filed with the FEC last night, Bee only raised $278,000 from July 1st through August 13th, including just $184,000 from the “Tim Bee Arizona Trust”, the committee set up specially for Bush’s fundraiser — that’s less than a third of what the event raised, as the remainder went to other costs associated with the event and to the state party and the NRCC.

As we reported last night, Bee has less than $590,000 in the bank compared to Giffords’ $2.15 million. Was the hassle of sacrificing his “moderate” image, and the follow-up of the local media roasting him for squandering taxpayers’ dollars worth the $184,000 that his event brought in?

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.

With congressional primaries on September 2nd in Arizona, the deadline for candidates to file their pre-primary reports with the FEC was tonight. SSP rounds up the numbers once again, so you don’t have to:

Note: All figures are in thousands, and cover the period from July 1st through August 13th. Sandra Livingstone has yet to file her report, but if and when she does, you’ll be able to find it here. (Update: Her report has now been filed.)

Some impressive numbers from Ann Kirkpatrick and Gabrielle Giffords, in particular. Despite the hype surrounding Tim Bee, I really like Giffords’ re-election chances.

Hot on the heels of President Bush’s $600,000 fundraiser for Tim Bee, we have two starkly different polls of freshman Democrat Gabrielle Giffords’ first re-election campaign.

First, we have Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (6/18-22, likely voters, including leaners):

Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 59

Tim Bee (R): 35

(n=502)

Lots of good news for Giffords here, including a very high 92% name recognition and a 57% favorability rating. But is it too good to be true? Tim Bee’s pollster thinks so.

Arizona Opinion for Tim Bee (5/15-23, likely voters):

Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 47

Tim Bee (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Bee’s poll is staler and from (as far as I know) a less reputable polling outfit than GQR. However, if we fall back on the clichéd but time-tested method of locating the truth somewhere in the middle of these two spreads, Giffords is starting off in a solid place against one of the GOP’s few legitimately formidable recruits.

SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.

Tim Bee has just lost the support of a key ally in his bid to unseat freshman Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords:

Retired Congressman Jim Kolbe has ended his support of Tim Bee’s congressional campaign.

“I will not be actively campaigning for Bee,” the former Republican congressman said during a telephone interview with the Herald/Review on Thursday. Kolbe, whose district included Cochise County and whose seat in Congress is now held by Democrat Gabrielle Giffords, hosted a fundraiser recently for fellow Republican Bee at his Washington, D.C., home.

Tom Dunn, a spokesman for the Bee campaign, also confirmed Kolbe’s decision.

“For personal reasons, Mr. Kolbe is no longer associated with our campaign,” Dunn said.

Kolbe is declining to specify the reasons for pulling his support, but it probably has something to do with this:

Last Friday, the Arizona Senate placed a constitutional marriage amendment on the November ballot.

Bee, the Senate president, cast the deciding vote because of rules in the Senate that dictate that he vote last because of his position.

Arizonans defeated a similar measure in 2006 by a 51-49 margin, and I doubt Kolbe is pleased that Bee was instrumental in resurrecting the issue this year.

Time to add another screw-up to the list.

Since Crisitunity has covered some of the remaining competitive House primaries on the front page, I thought I’d do a diary on the Arizona primaries, which are September 2.  Here are profiles of the Congressional races (I used to live in CD-01 and have continued to follow the state’s politics online since I moved):

AZ-01: An open seat (indicted GOP Congressman Rick Renzi is retiring), and the most exciting primary for the Democrats.  State Sen. Ann Kirkpatrick, a moderate, has the cash and the establishment support.  Her expected chief rival from the left, former television news reporter Mary Kim Titla, has absolutely fizzled and can’t seem to raise any money.  Who is giving Kirkpatrick quite a scare is outspoken progressive Flagstaff attorney Howard Shanker.  Though Shanker hasn’t raised as much money as Kirkpatrick (though more than Titla), he’s been endorsed by a fairly impressive list of folks: Progressive Democrats of America, CD-07 Congressman Raul Grijalva, and every single chapter council of the Navajo Nation.

You might ask why the Navajos are backing a white dude from Flagstaff over someone born on a reservation (Kirkpatrick) or an ethnic Native American (Titla).  It’s because Shanker was the attorney who defeated a proposal for snowmaking with reclaimed water on one of the Navajo’s sacred mountains, arguing before the Supreme Court that to do so would violate their tribal sovereignty.

Unfortunately for Shanker, the stars are aligned against him this year.  It’s a well-known secret that the Navajo only turn out to vote in off-year elections, when their tribal president is elected.  In 2002, they propelled political unknown George Cordova to victory over a crowded primary field, but in 2008, it’s unlikely they’ll turn out for Shanker.  Shanker’s also hurt by the fact that there’s another candidate to his left, Kucinich 2008 GLBT Coordinator Jeffrey Brown — whom Shanker unsuccessfully tried to have tossed off the ballot.

For the Republicans, mining lobbyist and 2002 candidate Sydney Hay will be the nominee, though she’s facing an interesting challenge from Tucson Electric Power VP Tom Hansen.  Hansen is a rarity in Republican circles: a bedrock conservative who’s shocking liberal on environmental issues (as in, he wants to phase out gasoline-powered cars altogether over the next 20 years).  If the Republicans had any brains, they’d nominate Hansen, but the smart money’s on Hay.  Either Kirkpatrick or Shanker is favored over Hay, particularly given the fact that there’s a right-leaning independent in the race (he’s a climate-change denier).

AZ-02: This is a rematch between horrific Congressman Trent Franks and retired music teacher John Thrasher (D), whose wife is a State Representative.  Expect the same result as last time: a blowout win by Franks.

AZ-03: One of the hottest races in the country, as hard-fundraising attorney Bob Lord (D) gears up to challenge surprisingly-vulnerable Congressman John Shadegg.  No primaries in this race, as Lord’s strong fundraising scared everybody else out.  Call me a pessimist, but I really can’t see East Valley voters tossing out Shadegg, whose father was Barry Goldwater’s chief of staff.  Then again, I never expected to see Congressman J.D. Hayworth in neighboring CD-05 go down; he’d weathered two stiff challenges in the 1990’s and was considered safe before losing to Harry Mitchell in 2006.  I also never expected to see anyone seriously challenge Shadegg, and Lord has certainly blown me away with his polling and fundraising so far.  In any case, this is the one of all eight races I’m least certain about in terms of predictions.

AZ-04: Another rematch between Congressman Ed Pastor (D) and challenger Don Karg.  Expect the same result as last time — Karg lost in a landslide and didn’t even bother to put up a website.  He’s got one now, but it’s pretty darn pathetic.

AZ-05: Freshman Congressman Harry Mitchell (D) faces a crowded field of top-drawer Republican challengers: former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, State Reps. Laura Knaperek and Mark Anderson, millionaire Jim Ogsbury, and a late entrant, lobbyist and former State Sen. Susan Bitter Smith.  Nevertheless, Mitchell dodged a bullet when his most fearsome challenger, moderate and beloved Corporation Commissioner (a statewide office) Jeff Hatch-Miller, dropped out for personal reasons.  The field seems to be coalescing around Schweikert and Bitter Smith, though Ogsbury could use his millions to keep it close.  I was really sweating about Hatch-Miller, but I think Mitchell is favored over all of his remaining rivals — the dude has a thirty-five-foot statue of himself in his district that was erected by his beloved constituents (when he was just a State Senator, no less).

AZ-06: We finally managed to find two candidates to run against Congressman Jeff Flake, who’s gone unchallenged the past two cycles — and one of them, trucking company account manager Chris Gramazio (D), seems fairly serious.  (The other candidate is university librarian Rebecca Schneider.)  Nevertheless, the wildly popular Flake should easily dispatch all comers until he decides to either retire or run for higher office.

AZ-07: All that remains to be seen in this heavily Dem district is whom progressive Congressman Raul Grijalva (D) will face in the general election: pastor Gene Chewning, or virulent racist Joseph Sweeney.  Sweeney was the Republicans’ sacrificial lamb in 2006 after defeating the well-funded Mayor of Avondale in the primary, so he’ll probably defeat Chewning as well.  In any case, Grijalva, who’s one of the most liberal Congressmen in the country, will easily win reelection.

AZ-08: Another tight district, as freshman Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords prepares to square off against State Senate President Tim Bee.  No primaries here, and the right-leaning independent who was planning to run dropped out and endorsed Bee.  Bee has a reputation as being somewhat moderate, and he’s well funded, but Giffords is a superstar (albeit a moderate DLC one) and will probably win again.

Predictions:

AZ-01: Kirkpatrick (D) def. Hay (R)

AZ-02: Franks (R) def. Thrasher (D)

AZ-03: Shadegg (R) def. Lord (D)

AZ-04: Pastor (D) def. Karg (R)

AZ-05: Mitchell (D) def. Schweikert (R)

AZ-06: Flake (R) def. Gramazio (D)

AZ-07: Grijalva (D) def. Sweeney (R)

AZ-08: Giffords (D) def. Bee (R)

Net pickup: +1

(Note: I also blog for ProgressiveHistorians.)

• LA-04: Former Shreveport Mayor Keith Hightower (D) is taking a hard look at the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery:

  Hightower said he is “trying to look at the lay of the land” before making a decision.

  One thing that may be in his favor, he said, is that Democratic candidates have an advantage in 2008 because Congress is under Democratic control.

  “Part of the reason McCrery is getting out is that he was on the down side. But I would be on the up side,” Hightower said.

  A Hightower candidacy would force Republicans to sweat a little in this R+6.5 district.  Could they afford to play defense in this district and in LA-06, where state Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) will challenge what is likely going to turn into an open seat?

• AZ-08: Should Democrats start worrying about the seat of frosh Rep. Gabby Giffords?  A Summit Group poll conducted 12/3-4 for AZ state Senate President Tim Bee (R) shows Giffords under 40%:
  

  Gabrielle Giffords (D-inc): 36%
  
  Tim Bee (R): 30%
  
  (MoE: 5%)

  Bee has yet to make his candidacy official (he’s still in the “exploratory phase”), but with results like these, you can bet that he’ll be entering the race in the near future.

• IN-07: Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels has set a date for the special election to replace the late Rep. Julia Carson: March 11.  Democrats will caucus this Saturday to choose the nominee for the special election, and a contested primary will happen in May to determine the November nominee.  While Carson’s grandson, Indianapolis city councilor Andre Carson, is looking like the front runner for the caucus nomination, some are speculating that we could see a different cast of characters contest the May primary.




• NM-03: NM FBIHOP brings the news that Carol Miller, the same spoiler who caused Republicans to win a 1997 special election for the seat now held by Tom Udall, is running again.  However, I haven’t been able to find this story in other media yet. UPDATE: Link to sub. only ABQ Journal story.




• IL-14: The fists are flying in the GOP primary to replace Dennis Hastert.




• CT-05: Chris Murphy tells it like it is: “I think it’s hard to justify that Senator Lieberman is a member of the Democratic Party any longer.”

  The early makings of a 2012 Senate campaign, perhaps?  We can only hope…