Tag: Quinnipiac

IL-Sen: My god, Mark Kirk is an asshole. The excellent ArchPundit catches Kirk bragging about funding “the largest voter protection” operation in 15 years in “key vulnerable precincts” where “the other side might be tempted to jigger the numbers somewhat.” And pray tell which precincts are those? Says Kirk: “South and West Side of Chicago, Metro East, Rockford.” Those aren’t just Dem strongholds – they happen to be the places where almost all of the African Americans in Illinois live. What a fucker. “Jigger,” huh.

KY-Sen: Clinton Alert! The Big Dog is coming to Kentucky to campaign for Jack Conway on Monday.

OH-Sen: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 36 (35)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (55)

Undecided: 8 (9)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

OH-Gov: Quinnipiac (9/29-10/3, likely voters, 9/9-14 in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 41 (37)

John Kasich (R): 50 (54)

Undecided: 7 (7)

(MoE: ±3.1%)

IL-Gov: Biden alert! The VPOTUS is joining Gov. Pat Quinn for a rally in Chicago on October 12th at the Chicago Journeymen Plumbers Local 130 Hall.

NY-Gov: Carl Paladino, international man of mystery? The noted scuzzball is apparently buying time on all the networks for 5 p.m. today to make a “major announcement.” Sounds pretty stunty to me.

SC-Gov (PDF): Hamilton Campaigns (D) for Vincent Sheheen (10/1-4, likely voters, 9/24-28 in parens):

Vincent Sheheen (D): 44 (41)

Nikki Haley (R): 49 (51)

Undecided: 7 (8)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

CO-03: Morans.

IL-14: A Randy Hultgren internal from the Tarrance Group shows him leading Dem Rep. Bill Foster 44-38, with 4 points going to Green Party candidate Daniel Kairis.

MD-01: Clinton Alert 2.0! The Big Dog is holding a fundraiser in Washington, D.C. this Sunday for Rep. Frank Kratovil. Man, after all the work he’s done this cycle, I hope Clinton has a phat vacation planned for after election day.

SC-02: Rob Miller says he won’t vote to retain Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. He also said that he plans to draft Joe DiMaggio in his fantasy baseball league next year and that he’s getting his wife a jetpack for Christmas.

Fundraising:

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio, $5 million raised (a new record)
• NRCC: Securing a $6.5 million loan

SSP TV:

• MA-Gov: Deval Patrick hits Charlie Baker for raising premiums as a healthcare CEO (while noting that he capped them as governor)
• FL-Gov: Rick Scott tries to paint Alex Sink as a hypocrite on various financial goings-on during her tenure as state CFO
• FL-08: A new spot from Alan Grayson hits Webster on women’s issues
• MA-04: Republican Sean Bielat is out with two ads (apparently cable only): the first attacks Barney Frank on the bailout (and features someone calling Bielat “a reasonable guy” – such praise!); the second is basically the same low production values, faux man-on-the-street shtick, and also has a dude saying, “If you don’t like the new guy, get rid of him in two years!”

Independent Expenditures:

• DCCC: Forty-eight different reports, all below











































































AL-02	HI-01	MI-07	OH-18
AL-02	IA-03	MO-04	OR-05
AZ-01	IA-03	MS-01	PA-03
AZ-05	IL-10	NC-08	PA-11
AZ-05	IL-14	NH-02	SC-05
CA-11	IL-17	NM-02	TX-23
CA-11	IN-02	NV-03	VA-02
CO-03	IN-09	NY-20	VA-05
FL-25	MA-10	NY-24	VA-11
FL-25	MD-01	OH-13	WA-03
GA-02	MI-01	OH-15	WI-07
GA-08	MI-07	OH-16	WV-01

• Concerned Taxpayers: MD-01: $38K on media against Frank Kratovil (D)
• Crossroads GPS: CO-Sen: $780K on media against Michael Bennet (D); FL-Sen: $350K on media for Marco Rubio (R); IL-Sen: $1 mil on media against Alexi Giannoulias (D); KY-Sen: $100K on media against Jack Conway
• EMILY’s List: CO-04: $160K on TV against Cory Gardner (R); WI-07: $20K on mail against Sean Duffy (R)
• NEA: OH-13: $550K on TV against Tom Ganley (R); AZ-05: $650K on TV against David Schweikert (R)
• NRCC: $111K on various media expenditures (they look radio-sized) in AZ-08, MA-10 & MO-04
• NRSC: $1.3 million on various media expenditures (these look more TV-sized) in CO-Sen, KY-Sen, WA-Sen & WV-Sen
• Revere America: NH-02: $356K on media against Annie Kuster (D) (see Blue Hampshire for more)

Quinnipiac (9/23-28, likely voters, 8/11-16 (using RVs and including Bud Chiles) in parentheses):

Alex Sink (D): 43 (33)

Rick Scott (R): 49 (29)

Undecided: 7 (20)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

Quinnipiac (9/23-28, likely voters, 8/11-16 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Kendrick Meek (D): 18 (16)

Marco Rubio (R): 46 (32)

Charlie Crist (I): 33 (39)

Undecided: 3 (10)

(MoE: ±2.9%)

If, even half a week ago, you’d told me that we’d be talking about losing the Florida gubernatorial race and winning the Illinois gubernatorial race… but, well, that’s one more chapter in the very game-of-whack-a-mole nature of this turbulent cycle. But Quinnipiac is the latest pollster to see that Alex Sink’s advantage in the Florida governor’s race has dissipated. My best guess is that Sink gained some traction while Rick Scott was letting his money take a brief respite on the advertising front, and now that he’s back he’s starting to control the tempo again. And it certainly helps him (since his ads are mostly anti-Obama and about nationalizing the race) that in Quinnipiac’s sample, Barack Obama’s approval is a strangely low 40/56. (Bear in mind that this is Quinnipiac’s first LV-based sample of this race, and the effect of their switch to LVs has been particularly dramatic compared with other pollsters, as seen in New York, Connecticut, Ohio… well, most of the state’s where they’re active, really.)

Oh, by the way, there’s also that Senate race, which for most of the cycle was one of the nation’s most exciting but now, uh, isn’t. Maybe the most interesting number here is that Charlie Crist still has very positive approvals as Governor: 51/43 (and Qpac’s write-up asks if Crist is “kicking himself for giving up his day job”). However, 48% of Qpac’s sample is “angry” at the federal government, and 68% of them are going for Marco Rubio… Crist’s measured finger-in-the-wind stances aren’t the kind of red meat they’re craving.

Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 48 (43)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 42 (28)

Other: 2 (1)

Undecided: 9 (25)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

SurveyUSA:

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 45

Joe DioGuardi (R): 44

Other: 8

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 57 (54)

Joe DioGuardi (R): 31 (29)

Undecided: 12 (17)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

You tell me.

Quinnipiac (9/16-20, likely voters, 8/23-29 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 49 (60)

Carl Paladino (R): 43 (23)

Other: 1 (1)

Undecided: 7 (14)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

The entire political world’s been abuzz about this poll, showing an astounding tightening of this race in under a month, going from Cuomo +37 to Cuomo +6. In that timeframe, Cuomo’s unfavorables spiked, going from 54-21 to 51-34. Still good numbers, but Paladino’s name rec has soared, taking him from 16-13 to a not-exactly-great 36-31. The biggest change of all, though, is structural: Quinnipiac finally switched to a likely voter model, whereas all of its previous polling on this race relied on responses from registered voters.

A potentially major issue with this poll is Quinnipiac’s failure to include Rick Lazio, who when we last checked still had the Conservative Party line. While Lazio hasn’t made up his mind about how vigorously he plans to contest the election, his name will remain on the ballot unless some shenanigoats are pulled on his behalf. (After the Jon Powers debacle last cycle, in which he unsuccessfully tried to have himself taken off the Working Families line by moving out of the state, pretty much the only reliable way off the ballot now is to get nominated for a judgeship – or croak.) Quinnipiac’s reasons for not including Lazio don’t seem compelling, and as Nate Silver suggests, they could have tested with and without him.

One other detail: Q’s poll was in the field for an unusual five days… and I notice their last survey was in the field for seven days. That’s definitely on the long side. But in any event, the real question is, is the race really this close? At least one other pollster seems to think so.

SurveyUSA (9/20-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 49

Carl Paladino (R): 40

Other: 8

Undecided: 3

(MoE: ±4.2%)

Of course, it’s SUSA, whose internals have left a lot to be desired this cycle. Once again, 18-34 is the strongest GOP segment, preferring Paladino by a kind of amazing 56-33 margin. But they may yet be right about some things, such as the fact that it’s apparently a close race among independents (41-39 Cuomo) – which Quinnipiac sees as well (Paladino is 49-43 with indies). Thankfully Democrats still dominate the New York electorate, but this is still not where you want to be. And if SUSA’s 44D-35R-20I sample is correct, then we’ve had an amazing comedown from 2008’s 50D-26R-25I distribution.

But another pollster is seeing things very differently – though with two major caveats.

Siena (PDF) (9/16-17 & 9/19-21, registered voters, 8/9-12 in parens):

Andrew Cuomo (D): 57 (56)

Carl Paladino (R): 24 (14)

Rick Lazio (C): 8 (16)

Undecided: 10 (14)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

The analysis here is basically the inverse of what we said regarding the Q poll. As you can see, of course, Siena tested Lazio, and they don’t appear to have done a straight Cuomo-Paladino head-to-head. If the Lazio numbers are at all accurate (and he does stay in the race), then this further butresses the argument that Quinnipiac erred by not including him, since the two right-wingers are clearly sharing the same part of the pie.

But the bigger issue here is that Siena is still clinging to a registered voter model, rather than using a likely voter screen, despite election day being just six weeks away. However, Siena may have offered us a further means for comparison. Here, Paladino narrowed the race by ten points, while Quinnipiac sees him tightening things by thirty. If Siena is right, then the change in Quinnipiac’s model would account for something like a twenty-point shift. That would be more or less double the largest shifts we’ve seen when other pollsters move from RVs to LVs. (Of course, we’re comparing apples and oranges here for a variety of reasons; this would be a lot simpler if we had just one outfit that tested both types of voters.)

So what’s the answer? Has Paladino turned this into a real race? Or is Cuomo still cruising? I think it’s impossible to say without more polling, and I’m sure that the stir these numbers have generated will inspire more companies to go into the field. (And for what it’s worth, Harry Enten claims on Twitter that Marist will have a new poll out on Friday showing better results for Cuomo.)

If you’re in the mood to be depressed, my good buddy Jake (aka the artist formerly known as Trapper John) thinks Cuomo’s in real trouble, and he may well be right. Voters are ticked off and, especially in New York State, truly disgusted at politicians. Cuomo’s spent his whole life acting like an entitled twit, and he’s seemed to view this election as a coronation. Meanwhile, Paladino, revolting meatbucket that he is, is a true outsider with a ton of money and a lot of anger on his side. If this race comes down to barfbag versus d-bag, voters may just wind up holding their noses. And as a New Yorker, I can tell you that the thought of Gov. Paladino chills me to my soul. Let’s just pray Siena is right.

Quinnipiac (9/15-19, likely voters, 7/6-11 (using RVs) in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 43 (43)

Pat Toomey (R): 50 (43)

Undecided: 7 (12)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Quinnipiac (9/15-19, likely voters, 7/6-11 (using RVs) in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 39 (37)

Tom Corbett (R): 54 (44)

Undecided: 7 (18)

(MoE: 3.8%)

Say what you will about the Pennsylvania Senate race; it’s consistent if nothing else. Quinnipiac’s 7-point Pat Toomey edge is disappointing considering that their last look was tied, but that was using their registered voter model, and that’s actually a less drastic RV/LV shift than we’ve seen in a few other states (like Ohio) from them. And the 7-point Qpac lead is consistent with just about everyone else, who tend to see this race in the 6-to-8 point range for Toomey. (There’s a similar 7-point shift in the Governor’s race, which was already pretty solidly in Tom Corbett’s hands.)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 44

Pat Toomey (R): 49

Undecided: 3

Dan Onorato (D): 44

Tom Corbett (R): 52

Undecided: 2

(MoE: 3.5%)

There’s also been a truckload of other pollsters releasing Keystone State results, perhaps most notably today from CNN/Time. These are LV numbers; as with last week’s wave, they also offer RVs, and they show that a similar-sized enthusiasm gap as the Quinnipiac polls (among RVs, the Sestak/Toomey race is tied 45-45, while Corbett leads 50-45 in the governor’s race — considering those are similar to Quinnipiac’s July RV numbers, this is a verrrry static race).

Critical Insights for the Times-Leader (9/14-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 40

Undecided: 24

Dan Onorato (D): 37

Tom Corbett (R): 38

Undecided: 25

(MoE: 4%)

MuniciPoll for PoliticsPA (9/15-16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Joe Sestak (D): 36

Pat Toomey (R): 45

Undecided: 19

(MoE: 3.2%)

Finally, two other polls from first-time pollsters round out the pile, with MuniciPoll giving a slightly more pessimistic look and Critical Insights giving probably the best-looking numbers we’ve seen in either race in a while, including a probably-too-good-to-be true 1-point lead for Tom Corbett in the gubernatorial race.

Any wonder what’s behind the GOP dominance here? Well, aside from the obvious stuff about the nature of the year, Pennsylvania’s swing state status and clockwork 8-year gubernatorial flips, and so on, there’s also the money story. In the Senate race, it’s been all Toomey so far, with 72% of the ads running in the state’s two biggest markets (Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) being GOP spots so far. Sestak’s only starting to engage the Philly market this week, so we’ll see if his powder-saving/late-salvo strategy is anywhere near as effective in the general as it was in the primary. And in the somewhat-sleepier and less ad-saturated gubernatorial race, Tom Corbett is winning the money battle, holding $7.7 CoH in his report last week compared with $3.4 million for Dan Onorato.

Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 37 (43)

John Kasich (R): 54 (38)

Undecided: 7 (15)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Quinnipiac (9/9-14, likely voters, 6/22-27 (RVs) in parens):

Lee Fisher (D): 35 (42)

Rob Portman (R): 55 (40)

Undecided: 9 (17)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Given that every other pollster has seen a very bumpy ride for Democrats as they make the transition from a registered voter model to a likely voter model, I was already expecting a steep drop for the Dems in Quinnipiac’s Ohio polling (they’re the last of the major pollsters to make the switch to LVs). But, dang, that is one unbelievably steep drop, not consistent with the 5-point-ish RV-to-LV difference seen elsewhere (including Qpac’s Connecticut polling this week, or PPP’s latest round of Ohio polling). Take the Senate race, for example: I have absolutely zero doubt that Lee Fisher is trailing in reality, and probably by at least 10, but the 20-point reversal plus these favorables suggest a decidedly GOP-ish sample (Fisher 29/36, Portman 44/20, and Obama 38/60).

SurveyUSA for WCMH (9/10-13, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 40

John Kasich (R): 52

Other: 5

Undecided: 3

Lee Fisher (D): 40

Rob Portman (R): 49

Other: 7

Undecided: 4

(MoE: ±4%)

Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/16, likely voters, no trendlines):

Ted Strickland (D-inc): 44

John Kasich (R): 51

Undecided: 1

Lee Fisher (D): 41

Rob Portman (R): 52

Undecided: 2

(MoE: ±3.5%)

I hate to be that guy who cherrypicks polls, but SurveyUSA and particularly CNN/Time’s polls seem more plausible here. Neither of them have trendlines, but CNN/Time is instructive because it looks at an RV model as well as an LV model. Among registered voters, they find Kasich leading 49-46 (a 4-point variance from the LV model) and Portman leading 49-42 (a 3-point variance). That’s much more consistent with usual enthusiasm gap findings, so it’s a good bet to assume that the Republicans are “only” leading in the 7-11 point range. Yay!

Well, Ted Strickland knows how to fight back. He rolled out an internal poll showing a 3-point lead… for John Kasich?!? (It’s from the Feldman Group, and the toplines are 48-45). Given the Raul Labrador rule, and on top of that, the fact that Strickland is the incumbent, that internal poll doesn’t leave me feeling any more confident than before. The Strickland camp is rolling out two new ads and is also benefiting from a huge AFL-CIO direct mail blitz on their behalf, but given the national climate, it looks like money alone isn’t going to fix these races.

Quinnipiac (9/8-12, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 51 (50)

Linda McMahon (R): 45 (40)

Undecided: 3 (7)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

There was a lot of OMG! that came out associated with this poll yesterday, as this is the first Quinnipiac poll of their home state showing Richard Blumenthal leading in the single digits. Nate Silver, as is often the case, remained the calm, level-headed presence in the room, pointing out that Quinnipiac’s previous poll of registered voters saw a 10-point spread, and considering that the average gap we’re seeing between RV and LV polls of the same population is usually around 4 or 5, then a 6-point spread in Quinnipiac’s first poll of likely voters probably means nothing, in fact, has changed.

Still feeling the need to push back on the Quinnipiac result, the DSCC rolled out its own internal from Hamilton Campaigns, giving Blumenthal a 54-39 lead over McMahon. (It also gave him 70/27 approval in his job as AG. And here’s perhaps the flipside of that, given McMahon’s former day job: the favorables for World Wrestling Entertainment are 21/62.) Even in the Quinnipiac poll, Blumenthal’s faves (55/39) are still much better than McMahon’s (45/41). Nevertheless, the overall trendline can’t be said to look good for Blumenthal. The question is, is there enough time left (and enough persuable undecides left) for McMahon to be able to do anything more?

Quinnipiac (9/8-12, likely voters, 7/28-8/2 (using RVs) in parentheses):

Dan Malloy (D): 50 (46)

Tom Foley (R): 41 (31)

Undecided: 8 (16)

(MoE: ±3.3%)

Here’s some more support for the Nate Silver hypothesis: the exact same movement happened in the Governor’s race, where Dan Malloy’s 15-point lead in the last pre-primary RV poll turned into a 9-point lead post-primary with LVs. At any rate, it’s a bit of a surprise to see Dan Malloy (who a few months ago wasn’t really even expected to win his primary) faring better than Blumenthal is, but that probably has more to do with McMahon’s massively-self-funded, smoothly-humming campaign compared with Foley’s efforts, which have seemed disorganized and mostly defensive since even before the GOP primary. Malloy’s faves are 46/21, while they’re 34/24 for Foley.

• DE-Sen: Christine O’Donnell’s radio interview on a local station yesterday should answer any doubts about whether or not the new Tea Party fave is ready for prime time (the answer: she isn’t). Mostly it’s notable for how testy it got, but also for O’Donnell pushing back on rumors that Mike Castle is gay – rumors that apparently no one has ever heard until O’Donnell brought them up in the first place. At any rate, Castle isn’t content to just stand back and let her dig her own hole: not wanting to fall into the Lisa Murkowski trap, his camp confirms that his last-minute pre-primary ad buy will be negative against O’Donnell. He also said he won’t be debating with (or otherwise even talking to) O’Donnell… ordinarily a safe decision for a quasi-incumbent, but who knows, maybe a mid-debate implosion by O’Donnell would be all Castle needs to put this one away.

• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist’s out with an internal today from Fredrick Polls, and while it gives him the lead, it’s a small enough edge compared with his rather robust leads pre-Dem primary that it shouldn’t fill anybody with much confidence about where his trendlines are headed. He leads Marco Rubio and Kendrick Meek 35-34-17. That comes against the backdrop of getting squeezed in both directions, with the NRSC “pledging” (I don’t know what that means, but it’s not actual reservations) $2.5 million for the race, and Meek airing a new radio ad going after Crist’s GOP past, airing Crist’s own words, including calling himself “pro-life” and a “Jeb Bush Republican.” At least Crist is getting some backing from one rather unusual corner: state Sen. Al Lawson, who just lost the FL-02 primary to Allen Boyd, just endorsed Crist.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Maybe I should’ve been patient yesterday instead of complaining about Quinnipiac’s lack of New York primary numbers, because they rolled them out today. At any rate, they find, as I’d suspected, things tightening in the GOP gubernatorial primary: Rick Lazio leads Carl Paladino 47-35. (“Tightening” may not be the right word, as this is their first look at the NY-Gov primary, but it’s what other pollsters have seen.) In the Senate special election, Joe DioGuardi leads David Malpass and Bruce Blakeman, 28-12-10. And in another sign that Democratic voters are only dimly aware that there’s an election this year, fully 77% of Dem voters have no idea who they’ll vote for in the Attorney General’s race. Kathleen Rice leads Eric Schneiderman by a margin of 4-3. (That’s not a typo.)

• WI-Sen: Ron Johnson has been outspending Russ Feingold 3-to-1 on the TV airwaves, which goes a long way to explaining why this is a tied race, but that may not matter much if he keeps stepping on his own free-market-fundamentalist message. Johnson found himself, in a recent radio interview, tying himself into knots by praising Communist China for having a more favorable investment climate for business than America, in part because of its “certainty.” So, let’s see… to stop America’s descent into socialism, we need to become more like the Communists, because the path to freedom is actually through the kind of “certainty” that comes from a command economy? Finally, this is probably too little too late, but Terence Wall, the guy who dropped out in a huff from the GOP field after the state convention, is now publicly touting the idea of a write-in campaign in the upcoming primary. I don’t know if he actually thinks he has a shot against a stumbling Johnson or is just engaged in some last-minute sour grapes.

• WV-Sen: Joe Manchin continues to rake in the bucks in the West Virginia Senate special election. (Facing self-funding John Raese, the money issue is the main threat to Manchin… well, that, and the perilously low approvals for national Dems here.) He reported raising $393K last week, bringing his total to $1.5 million. Raese reported $717K, but $520K of that was self-funded, with only $22K from donors.

• AZ-Gov: This may not get much press in the wake of her amazing debate performance, but Jan Brewer is also engaged in an interesting strategy of retaliation, pulling her campaign ads off the local CBS affiliate, whose news department dared to question Brewer’s relationship with a key advisor who’s also connected to private prison company Corrections Corporation of America, which stands to make significant money incarcerating illegal immigrants rounded up under Arizona’s SB 1070. That’s not the same station whose reporter aggressively questioned Brewer post-debate last night… my advice to Brewer would be to go ahead and stop advertising on all local network affiliates as punishment. That’ll show ’em!

• CO-Gov: This may be kind of repetitive, but Dan Maes again turned down calls to drop out of the race today, after former state Senate president John Andrews withdrew his endorsement and told him to get out. Andrews wasn’t alone in the endorsement rescinding department: it looks like the whole ooops-no-I-actually-wasn’t-an-undercover-cop-in-Kansas thing was the fridge too far for former GOP Senator Hank Brown, who is now saying he’s “looking around” for a new candidate. Meanwhile, on the touchy subject of water law, maybe Maes should take a page from Scott McInnis and just plagiarize all his work on the subject, as at least that way he wouldn’t appear completely ignorant of the law. He just introduced an entirely new water law doctrine with his proclamation that “If it starts in Colorado, it’s our water” – ignoring the 7-state compact on use of Colorado River water and the whole concept of prior appropriation. As much as I’d like to see Jan Brewer using the Arizona National Guard to invade Colorado and reclaim its water, I don’t think the courts would let it get to that point.  

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink is expanding her current TV advertising buy, throwing another $600K into keeping her introductory spot on the air in a number of non-Miami markets. Oddly, Rick Scott has been taking the week off since the primary, at least from advertising.

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber has finally decided to go negative on Chris Dudley… it might be too little too late, but at least he’s recognizing what he needs to do (as recently as last week, he negged a DGA ad that went negative on Dudley… and this is the first time he’s aired a negative ad since 1994). The ad attacks Dudley for having “never managed anything” and never “shown much interest in Oregon” before (as seen in his decision to live in income-tax-free Washington while playing for the Trail Blazers).

• CT-04: Republican state Sen. Dan Debicella offers up a recent internal poll, via National Research. It has him within 4 points of Rep. Jim Himes, trailing 42-38 (the same 4-point margin seen in the recent round of AAF polling).

• FL-25: Here’s an offensive opportunity for House Dems that nobody should be writing off. Joe Garcia posted a lead in a recent internal poll (taken in wake of the primary, and revelations about various unsavory moments from Republican opponent David Rivera’s past) for his campaign. Garcia leads by 4 points in the poll from Benenson, 40-36 (with 5 for the Tea Party candidate and 1 for the Whig).

• MO-03: Republican challenger Ed Martin got the endorsement of the Missouri Farm Bureau, a change from their backing of Russ Carnahan in previous cycles. Carnahan didn’t show up for his meeting with the Farm Bureau, although it’s unclear whether that’s why he didn’t get endorsed or if he felt the endorsement was already lost.

• NH-02: EMILY’s List, Planned Parenthood, and NARAL are all coordinating their efforts in favor of Ann McLane Kuster ahead of the Dem primary in the 2nd, where’s she’s running against Katrina Swett, who has supported parental notification laws. In addition to a joint rally, they’re sending out a joint mailer together.

• PA-12: The NRCC is out with a poll, via POS, of the 12th, giving Tim Burns a small lead in his rematch against special election victor Mark Critz. Burns leads 48-43, quite the reversal from Critz’s 53-45 win in May. (Bear in mind that POS’s final released poll before that election gave Burns a 2-point lead.)

• Rasmussen:

• AK-Sen: Scott McAdams (D) 44%, Joe Miller (R) 50%

• FL-Gov: Alex Sink (D) 44%, Rick Scott (R) 45%

• WA-Sen: Patty Murray (D-inc) 46%, Dino Rossi (R) 48%

• DE-Sen: Wow, the mounting establishment/teabagger war in the GOP Delaware primary is actually getting physically violent. A Christine O’Donnell supporter got into a scuffle with a tracker from the state GOP party who was videotaping O’Donnell at a candidate forum

• IL-Sen: The Constitution Party is still trying to get back on the ballot in Illinois, maybe most notably in the close Senate race where Randy Stufflebeam would be their candidate. They’re going to court to get back on the ballot after the state Board of Elections kicked them off for not having enough valid signatures.

• NV-Sen: School’s out for the summer/ school’s out… forever! The latest daily nugget of crazy from Sharron Angle is her recounting last week of her struggles back in the state legislature in 2003 against a supplemental budget bill that would have paid for emergency funding to make sure that the state’s public schools could actually open at the start of the school year. Meanwhile, Harry Reid is continuing his apparently successful advertising strategy of letting Angle say the usual things she says, and just turning them straight into his own ads against her, as with his newest ad launched this week.

• NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov: Despite the utter lack of drama in the big races in the Empire State, Quinnipiac just keeps polling it. (I guess that’s OK; we’ll take good news where we can get it.) In the governor’s race, Andrew Cuomo beats Rick Lazio 57-25 and Carl Paladino 60-23. (Unfortunately, there aren’t GOP primary numbers, as it’d be interesting to see, as other pollsters have seen, whether Paladino might actually be able to overtake the insufficiently-crazy Lazio for the nomination.) In the Senate race, Kirsten Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 44-26, David Malpass 45-24, and Joe DioGuardi 43-28.

• CO-Gov: If either Dan Maes or Tom Tancredo is going to drop out and stop their tragic pas de deux, it’d better be soon. Friday, it turns out, is the last day before the November ballot printing is finalized. Meanwhile, here’s the kind of headline you don’t want to see when you’re already fighting public perception that you’re a bit of a paranoid wackjob who thinks that bicycles are a United Nations plot:

GOP gubernatorial candidate Maes backs off claims of undercover police work

• KY-Gov: The establishment slate for Kentucky Republicans for the off-year gubernatorial race (only a year from now!) seems like it’s officially coalesced. David Williams, the state Senate president, will run for Governor, and Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer (who’d been a rumored governor candidate himself) will run for Lt. Governor. They’ll still have to get past businessman Phil Moffet, running under the teabagger banner, in the GOP primary before facing Steve Beshear, who’ll be seeking re-election. A recent poll had Farmer and Beshear neck-and-neck, but there hasn’t been any Beshear/Williams polling yet.

• MA-09: Mac d’Allesandro’s against Stephen Lynch in the Dem primary in the 9th is raising some decent cash in the late innings. Since July 1st, the SEIU, MoveOn, and Act Blue have raised $178K for d’Allesandro.

• PA-06: DNC DGA head Tim Kaine heads to Philly to fundraise on Manan Trivedi’s behalf, as part of a tour on behalf of Asian-American Dem candidates. Trivedi’s also had help on the stump this week from Bob Casey and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

• RGA: Good thing the RGA already has an unprecedented amount of money squirreled away… because they’re going to have to give a decent chunk of it to Chris Bell, the ex-Rep. who was the 2006 Dem gubernatorial candidate in Texas. A Travis County judge ordered the RGA to pay Chris Bell a cosmic $2 million because of campaign finance violations in the ’06 election (where the RGA gave an undisclosed $1 million to Texans for Rick Perry).

• WATN?: This isn’t really FL-Sen anymore, but Jeff Greene is insisting on staying in the limelight even as his vomit-covered yacht sails into the sunset. In fact, the phrase “vomit-covered yacht” is really what’s at stake here; he says he’s following through with a libel suit against the St. Petersburg Times and Miami Herald over their reporting of his many foibles. Good luck proving actual malice!

• Maps: They’re rapidly scrolling their way down the front page, so if you haven’t had a chance to check out jeffmd’s maps of Alaskan elections past, do it now. Begich/Stevens, Murkowski/Miller, and Young/Parnell all played out in similar ways, geographically, so if you’re wondering what Scott McAdam’s path to a win might look like, check it out.

• Ads:

• NH-Sen: We told you a few days ago that Ovide Lamontagne was finally going on the air; his first ad is a talk-to-the-camera introductory spot.

• PA-Sen: The DSCC is out with another ad, attacking Pat Toomey on the derivatives trading issue.

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold’s new ad is testimonials from a variety of (as C. Montgomery Burns would say) Joe Lunchpails and Sally Housecoats.

• IN-02: Jackie Walorski is out with an introductory bio spot.

• NE-02: Tom White is also out with an introductory bio spot, carefully steering clear of anything Democratic-sounding.

• NJ-03: John Adler may actually win the advertising day today, with a negative spot that slams Jon Runyan for his tax break for his “farm” (a.k.a. McMansion plus one donkey).

• NV-03: Dina Titus hits Joe Heck for comments that “it’s not Congress’s role to create jobs.” (This comes on top of the AFSCME’s huge buy of anti-Heck ads.)

• Rasmussen:

• LA-Sen: Charlie Melancon (D) 33%, David Vitter (R-inc) 54%

• OH-Gov: Ted Strickland (D-inc) 39%, John Kasich (R) 47%

• PA-Gov: Dan Onorato (D) 37%, Tom Corbett (R) 50%  

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):

Rick Scott (R): 47 (43)

Bill McCollum (R): 40 (29)

Undecided: 13 (28)

(MoE: ±5.6%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 51 (28)

Jeff Greene (D): 27 (25)

Glenn Burkett (D): 5 (6)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (4)

Undecided: 13 (37)

(MoE: ±5.4%)

With the Sunshine State’s primaries tomorrow, three major pollsters have rolled out last-minute predictions today. For the Democratic Senate race, everyone’s in agreement, except for maybe the magnitude of the victory. However, for the Republican gubernatorial primary, there are some divergent results, and PPP seems to be the odd man out this time. Contrary to the general trend of this race lately (I don’t know if there’s ever been a clearer illustration of “peaking too early” than this graph of Pollster trendlines), they give Rick Scott a 7-point lead over Bill McCollum. It’s still an improvement for McCollum over their July numbers, where he trailed by 14.

PPP’s GOP sample gives McCollum favorables of 38/45, while Scott’s actually above water at 46/33. Did they manage to find a group of voters who somehow have avoided the last few months’ worth of attack ads about Scott’s gigantic Medicare fraud?

Quinnipiac (8/21-22, likely voters, 8/11-16 in parens):

Bill McCollum (R): 39 (44)

Rick Scott (R): 35 (35)

Undecided: 22 (19)

(MoE: ±3.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 39 (35)

Jeff Greene (D): 29 (28)

Maurice Ferre (D): 3 (6)

Undecided: 28 (29)

(MoE: ±3.6%)

Quinnipiac finds a small lead for McCollum (smaller than they did a week earlier, showing that McCollum’s late surge seems to have maxed out); their pool of GOP voters gives 39/37 faves to McCollum and 31/40 to Scott. Interestingly, they also find a much smaller lead for Meek than did PPP, and freakishly high undecideds (28%) for an election that’s, y’know, tomorrow, indicating how little motivation the Dem primary seems to have generated.

Mason-Dixon for Miami Herald (pdf) (8/17-19, likely voters, 8/9-11 in parens):

Bill McCollum(R): 45 (34)

Rick Scott (R): 36 (30)

Mike McAlister (R): 4 (3)

Undecided: 15 (33)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Kendrick Meek (D): 42 (40)

Jeff Greene (D): 30 (26)

Maurice Ferre (D): 4 (5)

Glenn Burkett (D): 1 (NA)

Undecided: 23 (28)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Mason-Dixon’s numbers are a few days older than PPP’s and Quinnipiac’s; they’re pretty closely in line with Quinnipiac, although they see the biggest lead of all three for McCollum over Scott (and more momentum, compared with last week). They give McCollum 43/32 favorables, compared with 33/40 for Scott. Could this truly be the end of the line for shameless bald supervillain Scott? (The Lex Luthor comparisons have written themselves this cycle — but to me Scott’s always been the Bizarro World version of Peter Garrett, the very liberal, very earnest, very tall, very bald Australian Labor Environment Minister… who those of you who were listening to music in the 80s probably remember better as the singer for Midnight Oil.)

UPDATE: Was it worth it? Pre-primary campaign finance reports came out, and between Scott and McCollum, $70 million was spent on the GOP gubernatorial primary: $49.9 million from Scott, $21 million for McCollum (although the majority of the money spent on McCollum’s behalf was from allied outside groups). No worries: even after that spending, Scott still has a net worth of $218 million.