Tag: IN-02

A weirdly Senate-free version of the Digest…

• IL-Gov: State Rep. Jack Franks, a Democrat from exurban McHenry County, was a loud and frequent Rod Blagojevich critic, and he was considering parlaying that into a run in the Illinois governor’s primary against incumbent Pat Quinn. Franks just decided against it, though. (He does sound like he’s going for higher office in 2012, including a possible run against Rep. Don Manzullo in IL-16, a low-profile wingnut who’s gotten a free pass for almost two decades in a district that just went for Obama.) Meanwhile, Pat Quinn got another key union endorsement, from UNITE HERE’s Local 1 (giving him pretty much the big union trifecta, having already gotten the SEIU and Teamsters).

• MI-Gov: I can honestly say I didn’t see this coming; businessman Rick Snyder, who’s been polling in the low single digits in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, won a straw poll this weekend at a confab of party insiders on Mackinac Island. Snyder (who looks like he’s positioning himself as the ‘moderate’ in the race) got 31%, while AG Mike Cox and Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard each got 24%.

• MN-Gov: Minnesota’s Democratic-Farmer-Labor just moved its statewide convention from June to late April. This change appears to be due in part to the expected shift in Minnesota’s primary from September to August (or earlier), thanks to a new federal law regarding the date by which absentee ballots for the general election must be mailed. The new convention date probably makes life a bit harder for candidates who are currently members of the state legislature, since the legislative session doesn’t end until May 17th, 2010. (D)

• OR-Gov: Up-and-coming Clackamas County Chairwoman Lynn Peterson was the subject of some gubernatorial speculation a few weeks ago, but now she’s declared that she won’t be running for the Democratic gubernatorial nod next year (despite her Facebook page saying otherwise).

• PA-Gov: AG Tom Corbett got another high-profile (if somewhat stale) endorsement in the GOP gubernatorial contest: Dick Thornburgh, Pennsylvania’s former governor and US Attorney General.

• IN-02: GOP St. Rep. Jackie Wolarski (who has earned the sobriquet “Wacky Jackie” for her right-wing views) turned down the NRCC’s entreaties for a run against Rep. Joe Donnelly in 2008, leaving them with the woeful Luke Puckett. However, she’s sounding more interested about a run in the R+2 2nd for 2010.

• NV-03: Back to the drawing board for the NRCC in Nevada: their touted recruit John Guedry, a deep-pocketed banker who announced his bid last month against freshman Rep. Dina Titus, withdrew from the race over the weekend, citing family concerns. They may turn to former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins instead, who had considered the race. Former state Sen. Joe Heck could be another replacement, but he says he’s staying put in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

• NY-14: Our condolences to Rep. Carolyn Maloney and her family; her husband, Clifton Maloney, died while on a climbing expedition in the Himalayas, having just summitted the world’s sixth-highest peak.

• NY-23: More trouble for moderate GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava on her right flank: the Club for Growth has endorsed her Conservative opponent, Doug Hoffman (although they’d certainly telegraphed their intents, having released a poll showing him making it a 3-way race). Also, Hoffman got another boost among the social conservative set, via an endorsement from Fred Thompson (of 2008 presidential nap race fame). Democrat Bill Owens isn’t wasting any time; he’s up with his second TV spot of the campaign already.

• TN-03: Robin Smith, the leading GOP candidate to replace Zach Wamp, is claiming that Barack Obama personally called her “everything from racist to terrorist to extremist”. Smith, who served as chair of the Tennessee GOP during the last cycle, gained some previous notoriety for taking a hard run at Michelle Obama. The Smith campaign has yet to issue a retraction. (J)

• WV-01: Rep. Alan Mollohan, long-serving Democrat in northern West Virginia, has easily dispatched GOP opposition in his R+9 district over the decades. In 2010, it looks like he’ll face off against state Senate minority whip Clark Barnes. One glitch: although Barnes grew up in the 1st, his Randolph County residence and almost all of his Senate district are in the 2nd.

• Census: Sen. Robert Bennett of Utah — feeling the heat from the right in his primary — is introducing legislation to require the Census to ask a citizenship status question for purposes of apportionment. Such a bill is unlikely to gain any traction in a Democratic-controlled Congress.

Research 2000 for the South Bend Tribune/WSBT TV (9/29-30, likely voters):

Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 53

Luke Puckett (R): 35

Mark Vogel (L): 3

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Donnelly’s been on the airwaves for weeks, and his name ID, at 87%, is pretty strong for a freshman. His favorable rating, at 54-33, is also solid.

I don’t think that mosquito-plagued candidate Luke Puckett has much of a shot here. SSP currently rates this race as Safe Democratic.

SSP’s latest batch of House race ratings changes:

AZ-01 (Open): Tossup to Lean Democratic

With the Democratic and Republican fields now set after last night’s primary, it’s now safe to acknowledge the Democratic lean of this contest — and it all comes down to candidate recruitment. The GOP’s top choices to run in the place of retiring Rep. Rick Renzi, including former state Senate President Ken Bennett and state Rep. Bill Konopnicki, all bailed on this race. Instead, the GOP has nominated Arizona Mining Association President Sydney Hay.

Having only raised $342K as of August 13th (compared to Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s $1.14 million), Hay is hardly a prolific fundraiser. Moreover, personal statements on the campaign trail and on her website reveal her to be part of the Bill Sali wing of the GOP party. Case in point: She has showered Alan Keyes with glowing praise. And despite being the front-runner for many months, Hay barely won her primary against physician Sandra Livingstone by a 40-36 margin. That’s a serious warning sign for the GOP.

Democrats, on the other hand, have nominated state Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, a former prosecutor who has touted her law-and-order credentials in campaign advertising. Another tea leaf shows promise: Despite both primaries being contested, Democrats had a turn-out advantage of 51,248 to 41,646.

IN-02 (Donnelly): Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic

Two words sum up the campaign of mosquito-plagued Republican Luke Puckett: shit show.

I’d love to talk to you about fundraising and the like, but Puckett’s campaign has been plagued by something more than just mosquitoes lately: managerial incompetence. After filing reports with the FEC that indicated that Puckett had -$72K cash-on-hand (yes, negative seventy-two grand), the Puck fired his campaign treasurer (as humorously noted in a document filed with the FEC) and has been trying to sort the mess out ever since. Of course, he has another hole to urgently fill, as his campaign manager abruptly quit earlier this week.

With a PVI of R+4.1, Indiana’s 2nd CD was drawn to help elect a Democrat, and we have to believe that the top-of-the ticket dynamics are stronger than ever for Democrats here. Despite facing a tough road statewide in her gubernatorial race, Jill Long Thompson has unique strength in Northern Indiana and has been polling well in the region so far. Additionally, Barack Obama has been targeting the state as a bona fide swing state, and will likely post a stronger than usual performance in the state this November. Between the Democratic coordinated campaign and Puckett’s dismal operation, it’s hard to see how the GOP is in any condition to stage an upset here — even remotely.

NY-25 (Open): Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic

The benefit of the doubt is quickly slipping away from Onondaga County legislator Dale Sweetland, who is running to replacing retiring GOP Rep. Jim Walsh in this D+3.4 district. Sweetland has raised a paltry $193,000 for his campaign so far, and has $104K on-hand — a drop in the bucket compared to Democrat Dan Maffei’s $1.44 million raised and $578K on-hand. Given Maffei’s strong performance in 2006, and his heavy spending so far this summer on district-wide television advertising, Democrats are strongly favored to pick up this open seat. The GOP isn’t poised to put up much of a fight for this one.

Well, he was nearly a week late, but Republican Luke Puckett finally filed his second quarter fundraising report with the FEC last night. Let’s take a look at the raw numbers: $15,850 raised from 4/17-6/30 and under $49K raised to date.

The small silver lining for the deadline-challenged candidate is his $171,000 cash-on-hand total (most of which came from a personal loan), but that’s still well behind Donnelly’s $1 million war chest. This one is starting to look even bleaker for the GOP.

In other FEC filing news, Regina Thomas, who unsuccessfully challenged John Barrow in the GA-12 Democratic primary, finally filed an FEC report, although it was one that only covered the period from 6/20 through 6/30 instead of the pre-primary period as required by FEC regulations. Curiously, Thomas reported only having raised $20K to date, even though I recall her having raised nearly $42K on Actblue before July 1st.

But at least she’s not as hapless as the geniuses over at the Bill Sali (R-ID) campaign, who still haven’t filed a second quarter fundraising report a week after filing this message with the FEC:

I am unable to file the 2nd quarter 2008 FEC report, as FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the Sali for Congress data file.  I first attempted to upload a file to the FEC site on June 6. I again tried on June 9, using the new FEC software update, without success. I then sent FEC technical support a copy of the Sali for Congress FEC file. FEC technical support is still attempting to fix the file so that it may be uploaded. I am in regular contact with FEC technical support and the FEC analyst, in an effort to resolve this matter.

The race to defeat frosh Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly is finally starting to heat up:

Barely a week earlier, an estimated 4,000 people packed Mishawaka High School’s east gymnasium to witness democracy in action when Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton visited.

On Saturday night a grand total of six people showed up to the school’s auditorium to see democracy in action as two 2nd District Republican candidates for U.S. Congress debated each other.

Even with the low turnout candidates Tony Zirkle and Joe Roush took the night seriously and easily chewed up the 90 minutes allotted for the debate. (Emphasis added)

Watch your back, Donnelly!

Happy New Year, everyone!  I hope you all had a relaxing holiday season.  I’m feeling rested and refreshed, so let’s take a look at some of the recent developments in down-ballot races across the country.

• NY-19: Strike three!  After uber-wealthy self-funding Republican Andrew Saul pulled the plug on his congressional campaign against freshman Rep. John Hall after some shady ethics violations came to the fore, some Republicans hoped that former state assemblyman Howard Mills would be an adequate replacement.  Too bad he said no in late November.  The next great hope for the NRCC, assemblyman Greg Ball, announced yesterday that he won’t run, either.  This leaves the GOP’s ball in the hands of Iraq war vet and wingnut Kieran Lalor.  Will the Republicans really end up without a top flight challenger in a district that they held for 14 straight years before Hall’s win?

  Perhaps now is a good time to revisit Ball’s sage words from November, when the GOP line on the NY-19 ballot was his for the taking:

  Ball is concerned about the electoral outlook for the GOP in the 2008 election cycle.

  “George Bush has not only hurt the Republican Party, he’s left the nation without leadership,” the Republican state lawmaker said. “It’s going to be a tough year to run as a Republican at the national level.”





• IN-02: Speaking of the GOP’s bare shelf, a whole year has passed and Indiana Republicans are still lacking a challenger to frosh Rep. Joe Donnelly.  Has NRCC Chair Tom Cole really gone through his entire Rolodex of ethically-challenged Republican millionaires who live in this R+4.3 district? (H/T: Blue Indiana)




• Kentucky: The Lexington Herald-Leader’s blog has a thorough run-down of all the upcoming down-ballot special elections in the weeks and months ahead in Kentucky.  The first two happen next week.




• NM-Sen: New Mexico’s very own Dr. Doolittle, political gossip blogger Joe Monahan, has been talking to “the alligators” again, and this time they’re telling him that Steve Pearce outraised Heather Wilson in the fourth quarter by a margin of $450,000 to $350,000.  Seems kinda low-ish to me, but I suppose that’s probably the end result of having the state’s GOP money divided between two of their heaviest hitters.




• NM-02: State Rep. Joe Cervantes (D) has dropped out of the race to replace Steve Pearce, leaving former Lea County Commissioner and oilman Harry Teague and Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley as the only top-tier candidates left in the Dem field.  Monahan thinks the news will favor Teague, a conservative Democrat, but McCamley’s fundraising has been solid and he’s been running for quite some time.  It’ll be interesting to see how this one shakes out.




• MN-03: MNPublius is hearing rumors that GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad’s retirement is definite.  Let’s hope that they’re true!




• IL-18: Aaron Schock, a 14-year old GOP state legislator and nuclear proliferation advocate, is doing his best to avoid any foreign policy debates with his primary opponents for the open seat of retiring Rep. Ray LaHood.  I guess Schock has now fully realized that his “ideas” of selling nukes to Taiwan don’t play so well outside of his local college Republican chapter.




• IN-07: State Rep. Joe Orentlicher is the first to file for the Democratic nomination to succeed the late Rep. Julia Carson.  Carson’s grandson, newly-elected Indianapolis city councilor will make his decision soon, but it’s looking like he’ll throw his hat into the ring.  It’s also looking like the special election to fill the seat may be pushed back until May.

Well, that didn’t take long.  Chris Minor, a Blackwater contractor who announced a bid against freshman Dem Joe Donnelly just a few weeks ago, is dropping out of the race:

Blackwater contractor Chris Minor announced early Friday he’s dropping out of the Indiana 2nd District congressional race, citing conflicts with his upcoming duties in Iraq.

Minor, a former Kokomo High School graduate and retired U.S. Army officer, announced in late September he would challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly, D-Granger.

Friday, Minor said running for office would be “too great a distraction” from his upcoming deployment as an independent contractor in Iraq.

Minor was a gong show candidate.  He denied any closeness with the Blackwater, choosing to instead classify his affairs with the company as being merely a “pay relationship” (whatever that’s supposed to mean).  That didn’t stop him from defending the company earlier in the month, though:

Minor said he thinks Blackwater will be vindicated by the investigations.

“I think once the investigations are over, we’ll see a bunch of guys who have just been fighting in a very tough, combat environment.”

Guess not, Chris.

There were other facets of Minor’s profile that were less than compelling, including his decision to resign from the Kokomo Police Department after an off-duty altercation, as well as a drunk driving charge.

I guess it’s back to the drawing board for Indiana Republicans.

Race Tracker: IN-02

Republicans have finally found a candidate to challenge frosh Democrat Joe Donnelly in Indiana’s 2nd District: former Army captain Chris Minor, who is currently a Blackwater contractor working in Iraq, is taking the plunge in the R+4.3 district.

I won’t comment in detail on Blackwater, whose reputation has taken a beating since several of its contractors engaged in a trigger-happy shooting exchange with Iraqi soldiers and civilians several weeks ago.

I will, however, seriously question a guy who says this:

Minor said he would like to replace Pelosi with Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., “the pride and joy of the conservative movement.”

Pence “lives and breathes Christian values we all respect,” said Minor, a retired U.S. Army captain who continues serving in Iraq as an intelligence analyst for the State Department.

Mike Pence?  The same guy who described the Shorja market in Baghdad as “like a normal outdoor market in Indiana in the summertime”?  I guess in Indiana, a normal market in the summertime is guarded by 100 soldiers in humvees, sharpshooters on the rooftops, attack helicopters circling overhead, and all incoming traffic blocked by military personnel.

Seriously: Mike Pence?  I shudder to imagine a House under his speakership.  It’s no wonder that someone who would like to follow in his footsteps would give a reality-challenged soundbite like this one:

“Our country’s at war right now,” said Minor, explaining why he is running. “Unfortunately, the majority of America has forgotten about why we’re there, who attacked us, how we were attacked, the nature of the attack.”

Minor said it is time for Americans to reawaken to the fact that “we are threatened” and that there is a scourge “that wants nothing more than to destroy us.”

Um, do you really want to have a conversation about the facts, Chris?  I’d love to hear his wild-eyed theory on how Saddam aided and abetted the 9/11 hijackers.  While we’re at it, someone should ask him if he agrees that Iraq resembles Indiana in the summertime.

(H/T: Blue Indiana)

Race Tracker: IN-02

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)

CO-07

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)

CT-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)

CT-04

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)

IL-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)

IN-02

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)

IN-09

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)

IA-01

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)

KY-04

Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)

MN-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)

NM-01

Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)

NC-11

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)

OH-18

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)

PA-06

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)

VIRGINIA (2nd CD)

Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)

Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)