Tag: Alabama

Based on a Sept 30- Oct 1 poll by Capital Survey Research , Mike Rogers leads Josh Segall 44.9 % to 36.9%. Rogers got 212 votes while Segall got 171 votes. And 88 were still undecided.

I’ve been told from a couple of reliable folks that Segall is polling with African Americans right at 70%. If you move that number to a more realistic 95% based on past election data and the high number of African Americans that will likely vote straight ticket this cycle you get a totally different picture.

We know that 32% of the 471 sample are African Americans which equates to 151 voters.

So instead of Segall getting 106 votes from African Americans he would get 143 based on getting 95%. So let’s take 7 from Rogers (18.9%) and 30 from the undecided voters (81%) and not change any other variables. We would think it would be more likely that those African Americans coming over to Segall would be from the undecided votes rather than from the Rogers voters.

Rogers would have 205 votes    43.5%

Segall would have 208 votes     44.2%

and we would have 58 undecided voters  12.3%

Even if you move the number down to 85% to 90% of the African American Voters going Segall’s way, this race is still within just a couple of points. We could certainly expect that even at the 85-90% the sheer numbers of African American turnout could be high enough to make up the difference based on registration numbers and the Obama factor.  

Why this matters?

Six years ago, Rogers only beat Joe Turnham by 3800. Remember that the DCCC pulled out with two weeks to go and Turnham went dead on the air.

If we could convince the DCCC to assist in purchasing the last two weeks worth of advertising, Segall would have a definite shot at winning this race. To go dead would probably put us in the same predicament as Turnham. The good news is that Segall is peaking at the absolute best time and you could expect that he takes a lot more White and Older voters based on the economy taking center stage.

We need your help. Please jump in and donate a couple of bucks for this race. Encourage other bloggers and pundits to take a look at turning an Alabama red seat blue.

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Josh Segall is a great young progressive Democrat running for Congress in Alabama's third district.  He's young, smart, enthusiastic and hard working, convinced that his district can and should be more prosperous than it's been under incumbent Mike Rogers, and he's raised enough money to be a threat.  The district is a favorable one for a Democrat too — it's the second most Democratic district in Alabama with 33% African American population and a high proportion of young voters.  Segall has outraised Rogers in the first and second quarters of this year and the incumbent is worried enough to have already started running television ads attacking him — so Josh is on the right track.  The problem is, he's not just running against Mike Rogers anymore — the Republicans have brought in their big gun, Dick Cheney himself, to raise money for Rogers and other Alabama Republicans.  Josh Segall needs grassroots help to cancel out the big donations Cheney will rake in at the Shoal Creek Country Club from the have-mores — the people George W. Bush likes to call "my base."   

Yeah, Cheney's popularity is hovering somewhere around "dirt" with average Americans but he's still one of the Republican party's most effective fundraisers.  "The base" loves this guy no matter what he's done to the Constitution.  For the Birmingham event, those who still like Dick Cheney will pay $500 for lunch and pony up $2000 for a photo op with Cheney, gun not included.  A photo op with the gun will cost you extra, but I'm sure they're willing to oblige if the monied elite demand it.   Alabama GOP Chairman Mike Hubbard expects 100 to 150 to attend the luncheon which some are predicting will raise $250,000 — as much as Michelle Obama raised on her Alabama visit last month.  Is that crazy or what???

And where are they holding this event?  Shoal Creek Country Club, an extremely posh place with it's own little piece of civil rights history.

Up until 1990, there were no African-American members of the club. Pressure from various groups prior to the 1990 PGA Championship led the club to integrate just nine days before the tournament. This happened in spite of founder Hall Thompson, who said "This is our home, and we pick and choose who we want. We have the right to associate or not associate with whomever we choose."

Very inclusive now, I'm sure, if you can afford the price of entry.

About Josh Segall:  

Segall is a 4th generation Alabamian and a 2001 graduate of Brown University (where he was active with the College Democrats) and the University of Alabama School of Law.  While at Alabama he founded an organization called "Homegrown Alabama" which worked with the university to buy its food from local Alabama farmers.  He worked on Mark Warner's successful 2002 gubernatorial campaign, Russ Feingold's Senate campaign and worked for the late Senator Paul Wellstone in his Washington office. He is currently with the Memory and Day law firm in Montgomery. Josh's father, Bobby Segall, is a past president of the Alabama Bar Association and is on the Board of Directors of the ACLU of Alabama, so you know he comes from good folks.  

Just how progressive is Josh Segall?  I've listed his position on several issues below so you can judge for yourself.  As a longtime Alabama Democrat accustomed to Republican-lite congressional candidates, I just can't tell you how exciting it is to see Segall running as a bona fide Democrat.   Notice I don't call him liberal.  He's to the right of me and might not pass muster as the "best" Democrat in a lot of districts on either coast, but he is in step with his district, progressive in a forward looking way and he's easily the "best" Democrat running for Congress from Alabama this cycle — the best in several cycles, actually.  He's the sort of new Southern Democrat we need to cultivate to replace some of our Blue Dogs who are too often just a pale shade of Republican.  Segall does not expect to get an endorsement from the Blue Dog Coalition — which elevates him considerably in my opinion.

Josh Segall supports:

• Network neutrality legislation and bringing affordable broadband internet access to every household in Alabama,
• Health care benefits for national guardsmen and reservists,
• The GI BIll for the 21st Century,
• A moratorium on unfair trade deals such as CAFTA
• Investing in renewable energy and alternative fuels.
• The Lily Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.

And he's pro choice, recently telling a reporter "We should have fewer abortions, and I wouldn't advise it for a family member, but I don't think the federal government should decide that for you."  

Unlike incumbent Mike Rogers, Segall also believes a Congressman should listen to his constituents and put his district above everything else—including his political party.  Voting with his party 92% of the time, Rogers has been little more than a rubberstamp for the Bush/Cheney agenda since he got to Washington 6 years ago.  He hasn't built much of a name for himself in Washington either, with a power ranking of 403 out of 435 — he's 44th of the 46 members remaining from the class of 2002.

If you want to know more about him, here's Josh Segall liveblogging at Future Majority, an interview with Segall by Nathaniel Bach, and a Heading Left blogtalk radio interview by Adam Lambert and David Atkins.   There is also an online video called Alabama Roots.

 

About Alabama's 3rd District:  

This seat has only been in Republican hands since 1997 and the white Democrats here tend to be of the populist flavor.  Democrats are not out of favor in the 3rd district — they hold 75% of the locally elected offices.  Manufacturing, agriculture and the military are important industries in the 3rd district which is home to the Anniston Army Depot and has a large number of National Guard members and Reservists.  

Although the often quoted partisan voting index rates AL-03 as just R+4, the district actually has a very Democratic voting history.  The PVI only takes into account presidential voting and it skews Republican in states like Alabama, that have not seen a Democratic presidential campaign in a decade or so.  Let me quote PubliusIX who has made a study of the voting patterns in the 3rd district:

In terms of aggregate Democratic vote, this is the most Democratic district in Alabama outside Artur Davis’s African-American-majority Seventh District.  For only one precise metric, let’s look at the Alabama House of Representative districts nested in the Third.  There are 14 with a majority of the state districts within the congressional.  Of those 14, ten are held by Democrats, and in five of those ten, the GOP didn’t even bother running a candidate in 2006.  The aggregate Democratic vote in those State House seats in 2006 was 65.5%, compared to an aggregate Republican vote of 34.5%.  If you eyeball the courthouse offices, and count sheriffs, circuit clerks and probate judges, the results aren’t going to change much, if any.  Clearly, the majority of the voters in this district tend to vote Democratic most of the time.

Now, about that youth vote.  There are 4 colleges in the 3rd district:  Alabama State University (5500), Jacksonville State University (9000), Auburn University (24,000), and Tuskegee University (3000) with a total student population of about 38,000.  The Segall campaign will have a coordinator on every campus and Segall will be doing a college tour, visiting those campuses, starting in September.  I fully expect there will be an Obama coordinator (probably unpaid) doing voter registration and GOTV for each of those colleges as well.  So look for a big turnout of young voters in AL-03 November 4th. 

What about the "Obama effect" in AL-03?  PubliusIX has some numbers to shed light on that, too:

The presidential race is something of a wild card here.  Will white Democrats deserting Obama impact the congressional race?  Probably not.  First off, Obama did surprisingly well in this district.  Although Obama tanked in a couple of counties with low minority populations (18% in Cherokee County, 20% in Cleburne), he carried some other counties that don’t have African-American majorities (56% Obama in 57% white Talladega County; 61% Obama in 61% white Chambers County).  And to accept that Segall will be hurt by deserting white Democratic primary voters, you have to accept that someone who would vote in a primary for Hillary Clinton would vote for a congressman with a 100% rating from the Christian Coalition.  Yeah, I got a laugh out of that, too.  Even if some of these voters do defect, the downballot domination of Democrats shows they know how to split their tickets.

And that presidential race is a two-edged sword of which Mike Rogers should be very, very afraid.  The district is overall 30% African-American, and anyone who thinks turnout won’t be mind boggling in Macon County (which is in this district) wasn’t paying attention on February 5.  (If you weren’t, Macon County outvoted DeKalb County, a predominantly white, Democratic county with roughly three times its population, that day.)  The further into the 30’s the African-American percentage of the vote goes, the more heavily Rogers has to take a white vote that tends to vote Democratic anyway.  Alabama has enough residual racism to nauseate, but I doubt it has enough to neutralize that kind of turnout.

As you can see, this district is much more Democratic than "R+4" and is actually a very promising district for a Democratic candidate.  

The Bottom Line:

AL-03 is a real opportunity for Democrats — something that would have been unheard of 2 or 4 years ago when we didn't even field an active candidate.  The DCCC has taken notice and put it on their Emerging Races list for possible inclusion in the Red to Blue program.  Meanwhile, Segall has been successfully raising money on his own.  As of June 30 he had raised $552,000 and had $410,000 cash on hand, the most of any Democrat in Alabama.  Incumbent Mike Rogers' fundraising has tanked this year, but he still has a warchest of $1.1 million built up over 3 terms in Washington.  Now Dick Cheney is coming to raise money for Rogers and Josh Segall needs grassroots and netroots help to make sure Cheney's visit isn't the deciding factor in this election. 

The folks at Progressive Electorate have set up a Chase Cheney page for Josh Segall at ActBlue.   I'm asking you to please give whatever you can to cancel out some of the tens of thousands Dick Cheney will raise in Birmingham this Friday.  Help send a good Democrat, Josh Segall, to Congress from Alabama!  Do it for the progressive cause and, almost as important, DO IT BECAUSE THIS IS A RARE CHANCE TO STICK IT TO DICK CHENEY!  In a small way, of course, but you take your opportunities where you find them.  

The GOP had hoped to convince State Senator Tom Butler (D-Madison) to switch parties and run for Congress as a Republican, but sources now say he'll sit out the race. With the filing deadline falling this Friday, Republicans are left with businessman Wayne Parker, who was defeated by incumbent Bud Cramer in 1994 and 1996. Democrats are in a strong position to hold onto this open seat with State Senator Parker Griffith (D-Huntsville).

With Bud Cramer springing his retirement at the end of last week, there was bound to be a great deal of soul-searching and activity in AL-05 over the weekend. The best example is State Senator Tom Butler (D R – Madison) who, after talking it over with Republican Gov. Bob Riley, has apparently decided to discard the Democratic party label which got him elected to three terms in the State House and four terms in the State Senate as he's expected to switch parties and run for Cramer's seat as a Republican.

I'm sure Riley has promised Butler his full support (demonstrating the weakness of the Republican bench in North Alabama if they're scrambling for a party switcher), but Butler might want to be careful what he's asked for. Riley has never demonstrated particularly long coattails and they're bound to be even shorter in North Alabama. Republicans have lost four out of Alabama's last five special legislative elections; all of which were aggressively targeted by Riley and the Republican Party.

The most poignant of Riley's many defeats was at the hands of Democratic Butch Taylor in HD22, which lies within AL-05. For weeks after the seat opened up, all Republicans could talk about was how the district's demographics favored a conservative Republican and how "Democrats are scared to death." Sounds sorta familiar doesn't it? Riley made a few trips to the district and raised funds for the Republicans, only to see it all blow up in his face as Taylor walked away with a 16-point victory. It's the same story all over Alabama, from the election of James Fields in rural Cullman to primaries in safe-Republican seats:

Riley endorsed Randy McKinney. He was heavily favored but lost to Trip Pittman. This district is one of the most republican in the state. It is also one of Riley's top counties for popularity and job approval. McKinney led the field of four strong candidates in the first primary and had all the Montgomery money endorsements. However, Riley's endorsement created a backlash and elected Pittman.

The lesson learned by Riley is Alabamians resent a politician arrogantly trying to get involved in another race. All politics is local. These two maxims have withstood the test of time.

When thinking about the question a few months back, Doc's Political Parlor also had a hard time coming up with a successful Riley-backed candidate:

Can someone help me think of a candidate who was elected with Riley’s support that would have otherwise lost?  Not Luther Strange, Drayton Nabers, Randy McKinney… SD 17 incumbent Jack Biddle was more of a Riley man than his opponent Scott Beason but lost.

While Butler’s party switch is mildly damaging to Democratic chances of holding this seat, it’s not nearly as bad as some Republicans will attempt to spin it as. Being viewed as Riley’s boy in this race seems like it’ll be bound to hurt Butler. And I’m not sure how fired up local Republicans will be about his candidacy considering Butler’s been working and running against them as a Democrat for decades; I imagine they’ll find it rather difficult to let bygones be bygones.

Georgia's 11th Congressional District candidate will be announced, interviewed, and his campaign site will launch on Sunday's Kudzu Vine!

Also, don't forget Jim Spearman, Ex. Director of the Alabama Democratic Party will join us on the Kudzu Vine Sunday Night. Jim will discuss their US Senate race, defending Bud Cramer's seat, and 2 possible Congressional pick-ups in the state.

Listen live at 7:00 EST or download later here

Another unlikely House district looks like it will be a competitive race. In Alabama 2, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright has announced that he will be running for the seat of retiring Representative Terry Everett (R).  

http://www.al.com/newsflash/re…

The second district has been a solidly Republican district for many elections (Bush 66% in 2004, 61% in 2000). However, it is a historically Democratic district and has a 29% African-American population.

Bright would be a very conservative Demorcatic member – consistent with this district. What is interesting is that for years ambitious politicians in southern districts like this would gravitate to the Republican party – the fact that Bright chose to run as a Democrat is an encouraging sign for the re-emergence of a 50 state/ 435 district strategy.

Mayor Bright was recruited by both Democrats and Republicans to run for the seat (The Mayor’s office is non-partisan).

Chris Cillizza at the WaPo has more thoughts on Bright’s candidacy and the relationship of his choice to the Presidential election:

http://blog.washingtonpost.com…

Ending months of speculation, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright has decided to seek the open seat in AL-02 currently held by retiring Republican Terry Everett. Bright is well-liked in Montgomery and widely credited with the city's recent revitilazation. And while he drew several challengers when running for a third term last summer, Bright was re-elected without a runoff. Bright was first elected mayor in 1999, when he defeated 22-year incumbent and demagogue Emory Folmar.

Bright was the DCCC's top choice for the district and they appear ready to actively support his campaign:

If Bobby Bright is the Democratic candidate, this seat becomes a pickup opportunity, given his record of success. We are invested in growing our majority and have the resources to do it.

Bright will likely have the Democratic nomination to himself, while several Republican legislators and businessmen will be duking it out in the GOP primary. The district has a PVI of R+13, but has shown it’s tendency to split a ticket and support Democrats. Nearly 76% of local office holders in the district are Democrats and statewide candidates like Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks have pulled strong numbers. It’s certainly possible for a Democrat to represent this district in Congress and Bobby Bright will be a strong candidate.

My first diary here at Swing State Project.  I hadn’t seen this mentioned, but Doc’s Political Parlor (which covers Alabama politics) is reporting that Montgomery, AL, Mayor Bobby Bright has apparently decided to run as a Democrat for the open seat in Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District (currently held by Terry Everett).

http://www.politicalparlor.net…

Apparently he was going back and forth over whether to run as a Democrat or Republican, the thinking being he’d have an easier time in the general election as a Republican, but an easier time in a primary as a Democrat.  The speculation seems that he’s the Democrat’s best hope for winning the seat, and actually has a decent shot at winning.  It may come down to the region of the district that the GOP nominee comes from (ie. a Montgomery Republican could fare worse against Bright).

Can anyone better-versed in Alabama politics give more insight?

I just read the list of “Target Seats” from the DCCC and I’m not happy.  Has the entire South, except for Florida, slipped right off the map?  Have they learned nothing from 2006, when we picked up far more seats than expected? If we ignore the South by saying “we can’t win down there”, it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. I believe that some of these honest and hardworking young Dems have a chance, but only if we pay attention and give them some support (especially financial support). Take a moment to read what Ben Lodmell has to say in this press release/pledge to supporters.

MOBILE, December 26, 2007 – “This Democrat will not solicit any special interest money in the coming election campaign against the incumbent Republican Congressman Jo Bonner.”

With these words, Ben Lodmell, Democratic candidate for the U.S. House of Representatives, today vowed not to let big business be a corrupting influence in the 1st Congressional District of Alabama. In a letter to supporters, Lodmell wrote, “The people can trust that my allegiance is to them and only them. They have my word on it.”

 

Lodmell said he is making this pledge because big business has “hijacked” congress. “It’s as plain as the cash in Congressman Jo Bonner’s campaign coffers. You can see it in his voting records,” Lodmell said.

Lodmell described “Bush’s man in Mobile” as “a millionaire many times over who knows the value of a buck and where to get it. Let’s just take a look as his money guzzling Congressional campaign record.” Since his first campaign in 2002, Bonner has collected over $4 million in political contributions, while personally contributing less than 1%. “More than half of the cash raised,” Lodmell said, “came from political action committees, with who knows how much more coming from other special interest groups whose main purpose is making sure they bought the right kind of political action in Congress.

“Worse yet,” Lodmell said, “most of these contribution have gone into funding extremely expensive political advertising and self-promotion campaigns that manipulate the truth beyond recognition.

“Heck, Jo has already collected $365,719 this election cycle and he hasn’t even begun campaigning – or maybe he has, at least as far as collecting special interest money is concerned.”

“And who are the usual suspects that pour dough into Jo’s campaign pockets election cycle after election cycle? ” Lodmell asked. “There’s the oil and gas industry, agriculture, the utilities, insurance, healthcare and tobacco interests, bankers, the timber and transportation industry, and the old reliable defense contractors, just to name a few.

“And what do these purveyors of bad government get for putting Bonner in office and keeping him there? He votes for subsidies and tax incentives that gin up their profitability at public expense. And he votes against limiting business activities that might curtail that profitability, also at the public’s expense.”

Lodmell ended with this admonition to his supporters: “Bonner isn’t the only one playing the money game in Washington. It’s systemic. And as a result, what we have in Washington is government of business, by business and for business. The people no longer matter. Just money.”

Ben Lodmell declared his candidacy for the Democratic Party’s nomination for Congress from the 1st District in August. He describes himself as the people’s representative. “I’m a fiscally responsible pragmatist and an independent-thinker who can bridge the ideological extremes that often get in the way of getting the people’s business done in Congress.”  

 

And yet another Republican has decided that being in the minority cramps their style. Rep. Terry Everett (R-AL) announced his retirement this morning:

In February I will celebrate my 71st birthday. While there remains much work to be accomplished by Congress, I made a difficult decision over the weekend not to seek election for a ninth term.

In a district that clocks in at R+13, the GOP will likely have a wealth of candidates declare for the race. State Representatives David Grimes and Jay Love, both of Montgomery, are likely contenders. When asked in July about Everett potentially retiring, Grimes told the Montgomery Advertiser "I'd love to follow a man like that."  

However, Democrats also have a strong bench in the area. State House Speaker Seth Hammett (D-Andalusia) lives in the district, and could potentially be wooed into the race. In addition, state Senators Jimmy Holley (D-Elba) and "Walking' Wendell Mitchell (D-Luverne) have been mentioned in the past as candidates. Other names thrown about include state Rep. Terry Spicer (D-Elba) and Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright, who recently took 60% in his re-election bid among a crowded field.

And while we've been disappointed in the past, it's worth noting that Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks has also been mentioned as a candidate.

Update: State Rep. Jay Love (R-Montgomery) says he's "definitely running" and “has been on the phone all day with supporters.”

Update 2: State Rep. Greg Wren (R-Montgomery) has formed an exploratory committee.

Update 3: Speaker Seth Hammett (D-Andalusia) passes on race.