Tag: NM-01

There’s been a bunch of polls released over the past couple of days that we haven’t gotten around to blogging yet. Let’s blast through ’em all in one post (trendlines in parens):

• IN-Gov (Research 2000): Daniels 49 (47), Long Thompson 45 (46)
• NH-Gov (Saint Anselm College): Lynch 73, Kenney 7 (!)
• NH-01 (Saint Anselm College): Shea-Porter 42, Bradley 35
• NH-02 (Saint Anselm College): Hodes 35, Horn 18
• NJ-03 (Monmouth): Adler 41, Myers 44
• NM-Sen (Research & Polling): Udall 51, Pearce 36
• NM-01 (Research & Polling): Heinrich 43, White 41
• OK-Sen (TVPoll): Inhofe 53 (56), Rice 40 (37)

All yours.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Martin Heinrich (9/22-23, likely voters, 6/29-7/2 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 48 (47)

Darren White (R): 42 (44)

(MoE: ±4.6%)

White and Heinrich have been exchanging blows in the press and in ads recently, and it appears that Heinrich is getting the upper hand. A SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago pegged the race at 51-46 for Heinrich, so these numbers look pretty trustworthy.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

SurveyUSA for Roll Call (8/26-28, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 51

Darren White (R): 46

(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55

John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama’s statewide efforts here. It’s also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White — he’ll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA’s last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn’t seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich’s favor — if anything, the opposite.

(Proudly cross-posted at Clintonistas for Obama)

As you all know by now, New Mexico will be critical to a Barack Obama victory this fall. However, what you may not know is that New Mexico will also be a critical battleground for us to strengthen our majority in Congress. Fortunately, we have Tom Udall running for the open Senate seat here. And even better, we also have Martin Heinrich running to turn blue a House seat that’s been red for 40 years.

Martin Heinrich has spent his life helping and serving others. He’s helped improve the community in Albuquerque with his non-profit work. He’s fought for a healtheir environment as New Mexico State Natural Resources Trustee. He’s worked to bring “green-collar jobs” to Albuquerque while on the city council, as he’s also worked on the council to increase the minimum wage, reduce crime in the city’s neighborhoods, and protect the area’s precious natural resources. Basically, Martin Heinrich can be counted on to get the job done for the people.

Darren White,on the other hand, is nothing more than another far right Republican Bush loyalist. He served on the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign in New Mexico, and he’s happily using his Bush-Cheney connections to raise money for his Congressional campaign. So even though White stresses he’s an “independent leader”, don’t believe it. He’s yet another Bush Republican offering more of the same when New Mexicans are looking for real change.

Fortunately for us, the voters in New Mexico’s First District seem ready for change. The race is very close right now, and Democrats have a real chance of picking up this seat. That’s why our friends like The League of Conservation Voters and The DCCC’s Red to Blue program are lining up to support this people’s environmental champion. We can win here… If we stand up and support our Democrat running!

So will you stand up and support good, strong, progressive Democrats like Martin Heinrich? This is one of the hottest races in the country, and this is one of best chances of turning a red seat blue and expanding our majority. So please, stand with us and support Martin Heinrich today! 🙂

Earlier this week, the DCCC announced that it was hitting back against a recent Freedom’s Crotch radio ad buy against Democrats in ten districts with ads of their own. The DCCC has just filed their independent expenditure reports for the buys, which we’ve rounded up below:

• ID-01: $10,000 in support of Walt Minnick
• LA-06: $13,000 in support of Don Cazayoux
• MI-07: $38,000 in support of Mark Schauer
• MO-06: $24,500 in support of Kay Barnes
• NH-01: $17,000 in support of Carol Shea-Porter
• NM-01: $10,000 in support of Martin Heinrich
• NY-29: $6,500 in support of Eric Massa
• OH-15: $33,000 in support of Mary Jo Kilroy
• OH-16: $17,000 in support of John Boccieri
• PA-10: $7,000 in support of Chris Carney

Expect to see a lot more of this in the weeks and months to come.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP

Click on photos for larger versions.  More available on my Flickr page, as always.

Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois was in the state and saw a good chunk of it in a short period of time — at least up and down I-25.  

I’m not quite sure where he met up with Second Congressional District candidate Harry Teague for a fundraiser, but Emanuel stopped by Gabriel’s Restaurant north of Santa Fe for a fundraiser and quick talk with the press (which is to mean myself and Steve Terrell of the Santa Fe New Mexican).  

Emanuel spoke about the big year Democrats had in 2006 and how we won; it wasn’t just the war.

Yes, the war was a big factor. But the deteriorating economic condition in the middle class was a big factor in the fact that the Democrats took back the House and the Senate.  And it will again be a contributing factor because people realize that under the Republican Party stewardship, the middle class has been hurt.

After the Ben Ray event, it was time for Emanuel to hop in his rented car (I assume) and head down I-25 to Albuquerque for a press conference with Martin Heinrich, Santa Fe County Sheriff Greg Solano, Captain Ahren Griego IAFF Local 244 and other firefighters from IAFF Local 244.  

“We can fund our labs, and create new jobs, and we can fund our police departments across the United States,” Emanuel said in his short speech. “I’m going to be here to help Martin because it’s time for a change.”

President Bush took a beating — not a good sign for his staunch supporter, Darren White.

I got to speak to Heinrich for a few minutes after the event.  “It was a proud day to stand up there with them and to say I’m going to stand with them on these issues where we’ve seen President Bush and his allies cut back the COPS program dramatically, cut things like the Byrne Grants, do things that directly impact our first responders in a negative way.”

Byrne Grants help fund drug enforcement for the police.

But the cuts went deeper for Solano.  After all, he has to deal with the cuts to the funding; he’s a sheriff and knows firsthand what they do.

“Santa Fe County used to get enough money to get about 10-15 bullet proof vests a year.  Which wasn’t enough,” Solano told FBIHOP. “We have a department of about 90 officers, it wasn’t enough to fund it all — but it helped a lot.  Last year, we got funding for one vest, $500.  This year, we don’t expect any funding at all.”

This caused Solano to do something he “never would have imagined” doing a year ago — backing the opponent of a law enforcement officer for a Congressional seat.  

“You would think that Darren White, with his connections to Bush would have spoken up for us,” Solano said.  “And I’ve never heard of him doing so.”

First up, Michigan’s 7th, where GOP Rep. Tim Walberg has released an internal poll conducted by National Research (7/8-9, likely voters):

Mark Schauer (D): 31

Tim Walberg (R-inc): 47

(MoE: ±5.7%)

This isn’t the first poll that shown Walberg with a sizable lead; an EPIC-MRA survey from earlier this year pegged the race at 51-40 for Walberg. While Walberg’s lead may not be quite as exaggerated as it is in this internal poll, Schauer clearly has some work to do here. The same poll also found McCain leading Obama by 48-37 in the 7th CD, which may or may not be a bit suspect in a district that supported Bush by 51-46 and 54-45 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

Over in New Mexico’s 1st CD, Republican Darren White has released an internal poll of his own, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (7-22/23, likely voters, 10/8-9 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 41 (33)

Darren White (R): 47 (51)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

White is touting this poll in order to refute a Heinrich internal poll from earlier this month that showed the Democrat leading by three points, but he’s not publicizing the trend lines from the last internal poll he released in October of last year, which I’ve included above. Heinrich has closed the gap considerably, and has some room to grow: While White’s name recognition is 78%, Heinrich is at 65%, indicating that he hasn’t nearly reached his ceiling yet. This one will be a real battle.

SSP currently rates MI-07 as Lean Republican and NM-01 as a Tossup.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Martin Heinrich (6/29-7/2, likely voters):

Martin Heinrich (D): 47

Darren White (R): 44

(MoE: ±4.4%)

As far as I’m aware, this is the first publicly-released poll of this race. Considering that White probably has higher name recognition as the sheriff of Bernalillo County, this isn’t a bad starting point for Heinrich.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: I stand corrected! On the NRCC’s website, they’re still touting a Public Opinion Strategies poll from October that has White leading Heinrich by a whopping 18-points. So much for White being “untouchable”.