NV-02: Heller Had 12th Worst GOP Result in 2006

Nationally, many pundits and bloggers didn’t take Nevada’s 2nd district too seriously in 2006. It was too safe a Republican district to be even slightly competitive, so the argument went.

Well, we all know that Dean Heller in the end won his election against Democrat Jill Derby. Against expectations though, his result wasn’t very convincing. The man who was elected Secretary of State of Nevada three times, barely won more than 50% of the vote in a district that doesn’t include Democratic Las Vegas. So today, I ventured out in search of Republicans who won their districts in 2006 and did worse than him. Turns out that there weren’t that many.

Only 11 Republicans were elected with a worse result than Heller. Among them: Rep. Sali of Idaho, Rep. Cubin of Wyoming, Rep. Musgrave of Colorado and Rep. Doolittle of California. All these districts were presumed to be safely in Republican hands. There was no way they would become competitive and yet they were.

Again, there is talk of Heller being safe, of other Republican districts more important than Nevada’s 2nd. This is reminder for all of these folks that Heller is among the vulnerable dozen Republicans currently serving in Congress:

  * 50.37% Heller
  * 50.24% Pryce (OH-15)
  * 50.21% Wilson (NM-01)
  * 50.14% Hayes (NC-08)
  * 50.08% Buchanan (FL-13)
  * 50.05% Bachmann (MN-06)
  * 49.95% Sali (ID-01)
  * 49.53% Ferguson (NJ-07)
  * 49.26% Doolittle (CA-04)
  * 48.46% Porter (NV-03)
  * 48.33% Cubin (WY-01)
  * 45.91% Musgrave (CO-04)

Results were taken from NPR.

PS: Please note that I only looked at how many people were willing to vote for the Republican, not how well the opponent did. This is not a diary on close margins. Feel free to comment on that below.

Cross posted from Helluva Heller, where Nevada bloggers have united to take down Heller in 2008.

CA-45, NM-01, NY-25, NY-29, NV-02, IL-15: House Incumbents Hit Hard on Iraq

Hot on the heels of their hard-hitting ads against Republican Senators McConnell (KY), Collins (ME) and Sununu (NH), Americans United For Change is setting its sights on four Republican House incumbents: Heather Wilson (NM-01), Jim Walsh (NY-25), Dean Heller (NV-02), and Tim Johnson (IL-15):

AUFC picked an interesting mix of incumbents here.  While Walsh and Wilson will be two huge Democratic targets next year, Johnson and Heller are completely out of left field.  Raise your hands if you even knew that the Republicans had their own Tim Johnson.  Yeah, I thought so.

As far as an “expanding the playing field” type of move, I remain skeptical that Heller’s district will come into play next year.  At a PVI of R+8.2, the only reason this district was competitive last year was due to its open seat status, a feisty Republican primary, and Democrat Jill Derby’s strengths.  I’m not anticipating that any of these factors will re-emerge in 2008, and I doubt that a top-shelf challenger will emerge.  If I were in charge of these ad buys, I would have gone after Republican Jon Porter in nearby NV-03, whose D+1.0 district and out-of-the-mainstream views on Iraq make his district ripe for another aggressive challenge.

As for Johnson, his Illinois district went to Bush by 11 and 18 point margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.  I would be surprised if anything happened here, but at least Mr. Johnson will have to feel some deserved heat on Iraq.  Hopefully his ass will get redistricted into oblivion in a few years.

UPDATE: AUFC is also going after Randy Kuhl (NY-29) and Mary Bono (CA-45).

NM-01: Potential Challengers to Wilson Consider Running

(From the diaries with minor edits. – promoted by James L.)

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP, Daily Kos and MyDD.

Rumors of Democrats getting ready to take on Heather Wilson for her seat in Congress have been floating around since November.

Clearly, whichever Democrat goes against Wilson will have money behind him or her (more on that below).  So who is stepping up to the plate?  State Rep. Al Park?  State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino?  Former Albuquerque City Councilman Eric Griego?  Nope.

First up, we have the potential rock star of the group, Albuquerque City Council President Martin Heinrich.  Heinrich is popular, young, and a favorite of progressives.  Not to mention that he has his own website, which is always a plus for a blogger.

Joe Monahan reports he was told by Heinrich Monday, “Heinrich may try to clear the field and announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination for the congressional seat held by Republican Heather Wilson within the next several weeks.”

So who would he be clearing from the field?  Besides the aforementioned names, maybe Rick Homans.  So who exactly is Rick Homans?

Currently, Homans is the New Mexico Economic Development Secretary.  He also ran for mayor in 2001… where he finished fifth behind current Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez, former Bernalillo County District Attorney Bob Schwartz, the at-the-time incumbent Jim Baca and city Councilor Mike McEntee. 

And according to a source of Heath Haussamen, he is considering a run for Congress.  Most significantly, the source told Haussamen “Gov. Bill Richardson has pledged to support Homans in a Democratic primary.”

But if Heinrich steps into the race, not many (if any) Democrats would stand a chance in a primary against the city council President.

It’s about time local area Democrats stepped up to the plate to take on Wilson.  Having quotes from potential challengers about her fauxs pas from here to election day would build a nice narrative in the minds of undecided voters. 

Even better, they could start raising money to take on the inevitable large warchest Wilson will raise to try to save her job.  And they will have support from the DCCC.

After all, Wilson’s seat is perennially a target for Democrats, and the DCCC began attacking her for her controversial phone call to former US Attorney David Iglesias.  Iglesias was subsequently fired, and believes it was due to political pressure from Wilson and Sen. Pete Domenici.

The DCCC has also started a website called the Heather Wilson Watch to keep tabs on Heather Wilson.  This is similar to the now defunct Washington Wilson Watch run by the Patricia Madrid campaign.  Currently, HWW is just dedicated to her role in the Iglesias firing; but it can easily be expanded to show her stances on many issues.

NM-01: Is Redistricting Worth It?

Let’s talk New Mexico.  One of the tiny pangs of disappointment for our side on election night last month was falling just barely short from knocking off Republican Heather Wilson in NM-01, a district with a PVI of D+2.4 that John Kerry won.  With seats as red as NY-20 (R+2.5), AZ-05 (R+3.7), NC-11 (R+7.1), and KS-01 (R+7.3) falling to upstart Democratic challengers in a national wave, local Dems are at their wits’ end as to what it will take to finally elect a Democrat in a Democratic district if they can’t do it in a favorable national environment.

With a rock-solid majority in the state legislature and Bill Richardson in the Governor’s mansion, the wheels are in motion to do an end run around Wilson and redraw the lines of NM-01, according to a recent Roll Call (subscription-only) article:

New Mexico Democrats, frustrated by their inability to defeat Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M.), now are openly talking about redrawing the state’s Congressional district boundaries prior to the 2008 elections.

State Sen. Jerry Ortiz y Pino (D), who said he is ready to introduce a redistricting bill when the Legislature convenes in January, insisted that his chief goal is to create Congressional lines that make more sense and keep communities of interest together – not to target Wilson.

[…]

In New Mexico, Democrats have held all the levers of power since Gov. Bill Richardson (D) was elected in 2002. Richardson has resisted legislators’ calls to redraw the boundaries of the state’s three House districts in the past, but a spokesman said Wednesday that the governor is at least willing to consider the prospect this time.

“The governor prefers to wait until the next round of redistricting in 2010, but he’s willing to meet with Sen. Ortiz y Pino about it,” Richardson spokesman Gilbert Gallegos said.

[…]

Ortiz y Pino is proposing unifying Valencia County south of Albuquerque, which is split between Wilson’s district and the 2nd district into the 1st district. That would put the Hispanic-majority city of Los Lunas in the 1st district along with a significant portion of American Indian territory. In exchange, Torrance County, an agricultural stronghold that is south and east of Albuquerque and now in the 1st district, would go into Rep. Steve Pearce’s (R) more rural and conservative 2nd district.

With all that in mind, we have two questions to ponder tonight:

1) Would the proposed redistricting of NM-01 be worth the political blowback?

2) Would the proposed plan make enough of a difference?

The answer to #2 might be entirely dependent on the answer to #1: an effort to redraw the lines of Wilson’s district two election cycles early could generate a level of public backlash that Wilson could play to her favor.  These are all things to consider, but let’s look at #2 first.

Ortiz y Pino’s plan, as mentioned, is centered around subtracting rural Torrance County from NM-01 and adding it to Republican Steve Pearce’s NM-02 in exchange for consolidating all of Valencia County in NM-01 (it’s currently split between the two districts).  According to CNN, here’s how Torrance County voted in 2006:

Wilson (R): 3,287 (61%)
Madrid (D)): 2,114 (39%)

And here’s how the portion of Valencia County in NM-02 voted:

Pearce (R): 7,995 (60%)
Kissling (D): 5,280 (40%)

Those numbers definitely give me pause here.  Granted, I accept all the usual caveats about comparing two unlike races (Kissling was an underfunded, under-organized challenger, so I doubt there was any extensive or effective GOTV in this county), but on the other hand, there were several counties that actually delivered for Kissling, so this doesn’t really seem like the most immediately obvious territory to tack on to NM-01 if beating Heather Wilson is your objective.  Perhaps shaving off some territory from Mark Udall’s NM-03 might be more productive in this case–but would certainly raise all kinds of red flags regarding Ortiz y Pino’s “compactness” argument.

Then again, I’m lacking all kinds of information about Valencia County.  Perhaps it is indeed an untapped reservoir of Democratic votes, but it doesn’t appear to be obviously so.  Perhaps we have some local readers who can offer some perspective on this plan, and on Valencia County in general.

NM-01: Republicans Pulling Out Dirty Tricks

For some reason, when I say or type “dirty tricks”, I think of Gollum from Lord of the Rings saying, “tricksy little hobbits…”.  But anyway, I went to Talking Points Memo, and lo and behold, I see the first item is about New Mexico!

It linked to a TPM Muckraker story about the dirty tricks by the GOP.  The Associated Press reported on the story, and in the story, the GOP claimed it only happened once, to one voter.  But NM Democratic Party director Matt Farrauto says that’s just not true.

More on the dark side of the moon.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP and as a diary at Daily Kos

“I am standing in front of four people who had it happen to them, and there’s a fifth woman who contacted me this morning,” Farrauto told me. The group was standing in the courthouse lobby, he said, waiting to meet with a judge who could order the GOP’s calls to stop.

The Albuquerque Journal mentions the controversy in their Monday-before-Election-Day article.  Again, there is the claim by the Republicans it only happened to one person.

But Marta Kramer, executive director of the state Republican Party, said the accusation was bogus. She said a volunteer on the Republican phone bank inadvertently called a Democrat who had the same name as two other Republicans.

Right.  Those other four or five people who have come forward and actually realized this is unethical and misleading information?  They don’t exist.  Not to mention we don’t know how many Democrats don’t realize the information is wrong.

Joe Monahan notes that Republicans are getting misleading mailers; I think we can assume these are being sent to everyone.

[B]log photog Mark Bralley, a Republican, said he received a mailer from his party directing him to the wrong polling location.

So there are misleading mailers along with those misleading phone calls floating about.

To see Gov. Bill Richardson and Sen. Jeff Bingaman’s responses, see my earlier post.

Field & Zogby Polls

The latest California Field Poll has Shwarzenegger up by double digits but still under 50%. Feinstein also up by double digits, with slight slippage within the MOE. Unfortunetly no polling on the “down the ticket” or Congressional races.

11/1/2006 MOE 3.5% Both Polls

Gov:

Shwarzenegger 49 (44)

Angelides 33 (34)

Other 6 (7)

Undecided 12 (15)

Angelides is only leading in LA County-42% to 36% and tied in the SF Bay Area, not good news. Looks like the Gropenator will pull this out but interesting that he still hasn’t popped 50%. 78% believe Shwarzenegger will win.

Sen:

Feinstein 55  (57)

Mountjoy 33  (29)

Other  4 (6)

Undecided 8 (8)

No regional info. Interesting slip though its within the MOE and I only just saw my first Feinstein TV Ad today.

AZ-08


Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Graf (R) 41 (37)

Giffords (D) 54 (45)


CO-07


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


O’Donnell (R) 40 (34)

Perlmutter (D) 54 (45)


CT-02


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Simmons (R) 47 (44)

Courtney (D) 42 (41)


CT-04


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Shays (R) 44 (41)

Farrell (D) 51 (46)


IL-06


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Roskam (R) 40 (38)

Duckworth (D) 54 (43)


IN-02


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Chocola (R) 39 (39)

Donnelly (D) 52 (49)


IN-09


Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Sodrel (R) 46 (38)

Hill (D) 48 (46)


IA-01


Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Whalen (R) 42 (34)

Braley (D) 49 (47)


KY-04


Zogby(Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Davis (R) 42 (42)

Lucas (D) 45 (36)


MN-06


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Bachmann (R) 52 (46)

Wetterling (D) 42 (43)


NM-01


Zogby for Reuters. 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Wilson (R) 44 (40)

Madrid (D) 53 (50)


NC-11


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Taylor (R) 43 (40)

Shuler (D) 48 (51)


OH-18


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Padgett (R) 33 (36)

Space (D) 58 (45)


PA-06


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Gerlach (R) 44 (41)

Murphy (D) 49 (43)


VIRGINIA (2nd CD)


Zogby (Reuters). 10/24-29. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/25-10/2 results)


Drake (R) 51 (42)

Kellam (D) 43 (46)

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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