Tag: NM-01

After the announcement of Martin Chavez’ departure, to start the weekend, it only seemed fitting to end the weekend with another rundown of just who is running for the House and Senate in 2008.  With all a Senate seat up for grabs along with all three House seats, it promises to be an exciting year in New Mexico politics.

The primaries will be held on June 3rd for all these races, but the preprimary nominating conventions will be held March 15.  It is at the preprimary nominating convention where the candidates attempt to get on their party’s ballot for the primary.

We’ll start with the big race, where it looks like the field is set — though that’s what I said last month and we’ve had a big change since then.

Senate

For the Democrats, the clear frontrunner is Tom Udall, who only gained more momentum when Martin Chavez dropped out of the race.  Also in the race is alternative magazine publisher Leland Lehrman who is running a campaign from the far-left.

On the Republican side of things, it is Representative Steve Pearce against Representative Heather Wilson.  Both are, like Udall, giving up their House seats to take a run at being a US Senator.  

There is an Independent in the race, Zach Boatman, a teacher at Santa Fe High School.

First Congressional District

The First Congressional District seat is in central New Mexico and serves Albuquerque. It has been held by Republicans since the state received a third Congressional District in 1969.  The seat has been held by Republican Heather Wilson since 1998.  Wilson has been rocked by scandals, but is now running for the open Senate seat (above).  The district has a PVI of D+2.4.

The Democrats in the race are led by Martin Heinrich, with Michelle Lujan-Grisham a step below the former Albuquerque city councilor.  Two lesser-tier challengers are also in the race, Jon Adams and Jason Call.

Prominent author Alisa Valdez-Rodgriguez is also considering a run at the seat.

For Republicans, the former Bernalillo County Bush/Cheney campaign chairman and sheriff Darren White is the frontrunner, followed by the, shall we say, outspoken state Sen. Joe Carraro.  

Also considering the race, though it looks increasingly less-likely she will enter with each passing day, is Janice Arnold-Jones.

Second Congressional District

New Mexico’s Second Congressional District encompasses much of New Mexico south of I-40, including the cities of Las Cruces, Roswell, Carlsbad, Hobbs and Socorro.  The seat has been in the hands of Republicans since 1981 and Rep. Steve Pearce has held the seat since 2003.  Pearce is running for the Senate seat (above).  The district’s PVI is R+5.7.

For Democrats, the crowded field of challengers is led by State Rep. Joseph Cervantes, who had been mentioned as a possible challenger to Pearce for previous cycles.  Also in the race are Doña Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County commissioner Harry Teague. Retired Roswell school teacher Frank McKinnon and Presbyterian minister Al Kissling round out the field of official entrants in the race; the last two will have a tough time reaching the 20 percent number at the preprimary convention.

Two Democrats still have not made a decision on running; State Sen. John Arthur Smith and State Rep. Jeff Steinborn.

For Republicans, this is a chance of a lifetime; it is a seat that is solidly Republican and has been held by a far-right Republican for years.  Former Bernalillo County GOP executive director Bob Cornelius, rancher Aubrey L. Dunn Jr. and businessman Ed Tinsley have all officially thrown their hat in the ring for the Republican nomination.  

The Republicans who have been reported to be considering taking a run at the seat are Domenici staffer Clint Chandler, Sierra County GOP chair C. Earl Greer and former state representative Terry Marquardt.  No matter what, this looks to be a crowded primary race on both sides.

Third Congressional District

New Mexico’s Third Congressional District came into existence in 1983 and has been held by Democrats ever since then except for a term from 1997-1999.  The district covers most of Northern New Mexico, including Santa Fe, most of Rio Rancho, Taos and Farmington.  Rep. Tom Udall has held this seat since 1999 and is leaving the seat to run for Senate (above).  The PVI for the district is D+5.5.

This is the seat most friendly to Democrats in the state, and is considered a “safe Democrat hold” by all political observers.  In the race so far are Santa Fe green developer Don Wiviott, Santa Fe County commissioner Harry Montoya and  secretary for the state’s Indian Affairs Department Benny Shendo Jr.  

But the big name in the room is a Democrat who is still officially in the “consideration” stages — Public Regulation Commission chairman Ben Ray Lujan.  Lujan’s father is Ben Lujan, the Speaker of the state House.  Also considering are Santa Fe County sheriff Greg Solano and former state Rep. Patsy Trujillo.

As of yet, no Republicans have officially entered the race to be the sacrificial lamb to take on whichever Democrat wins the nomination.  But considering are LANL engineer Ron Dolin, and state Rep. Brian Moore.  Dolin lost to Udall by an incredible margin in 2006.

Oh boy, do I love nasty primaries — on the GOP side of the aisle, that is.

For a while, it looked like Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, a much-hyped recruit by the NRCC, might have a clear shot at the Republican nomination to succeed Senate aspirant Heather Wilson for her House seat.  Well, it looks like that dream has ended, as GOP state Senator Joe Carraro announced his intention to challenge White for the nomination today:

“White has state party apparatus behind him, but once people understand that he has no substance – policy experience and knowledge of issues – I believe that business interests from throughout the state will join with my effort to make sure that we have someone running for Congress that knows what they’re doing – no disrespect,” Carraro said. “Oil and gas, economic development and defense interests need to understand future implications for our state and contribute to my campaign. My job is to show them that I can get job done.”

Carraro said he expects “a tough race with lots of dirty campaigning – that was indicated by intimidation brought to all candidates thinking about running against Darren White.”

Yeah, you tell ’em, Joe!  “Just say no” to DC-sponsored coronations!

Former New Mexico AG and 2006 candidate against GOP Rep. Heather Wilson made it official today — she won’t be seeking another bid:

Madrid notified the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and other groups today that she won’t run.

“I think that this is a Democratic year and I would have been the strongest person in the race, but this is just not the year for me,” Madrid said in a telephone interview.

That’s largely due to the fact that her father, who lives in Las Cruces, is not well.

“I’ve spent quite a number of years away from my family, particularly in my last year in office, and they need me and I need them,” she said.

Despite the fear that an open seat race might crowd the Democratic primary, former Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich looks to be in a good position, with several potential challengers taking a pass on the race.

The full rankings are available on Campaign Diaries.

Plenty of action in House races since our first ratings came out in mid-September. This is recruitment and retirement season in the House, and Ohio has been the center of it all, with three Republicans retiring, two of them in very competitive districts (OH-15 and OH-16). Democrats have had better news on the recruitment front as well (look at AK-AL, FL-24, IL-11 and MN-06), but Republicans reply that they are very satisfied with their newest candidates in NM-01 and OH-07…

A lot will still happen in the next few weeks. Republicans are afraid that many more Republicans will announce their retirement, for that has really been to bottom line so far: Whatever chance the GOP had of reclaiming a majority next year (and it was already a slim chance) has been erased by the number of competitive open seats the party will have to defend, some of them completely unexpectedly. Two good news the Republicans did get recently  were from unexpected places. The first is from VA-11, a blue-trending district held by Republican Tom Davis. It appeared certain that Davis would run for Senate — offering the seat to Dems, but it now seems he will stay where he is. The second good news came from MA-05, where the GOP got a “moral victory” this week in the special election that the Democrat won by only 5% in a very Democratic district. Moral victories might not be much, but Hackett’s near-win in very red OH-02 in 2005 certainly prefigured larger gains in 2006.

I have only written full descriptions of seats that have made news over the past month. For deatiled descriptions of the other races, check last month’s rankings. Only a few seats saw their rating change in the past four months. I indicated upgraded or downgraded next to them to indicate whether they became more vulnerable or less vulnerable for the incumbent party. Here is the quick run-down:

• Less competitive: OH-02, VA-11
• More competitive: AK-AL, IN-09, IL-11, KS-03, NM-11, NJ-03, OH-07, OH-14

Outlook: Democrats pick-up a net 7-10 seats.

The full rankings are available here, on Campaign Diaries.

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open)
• CA-4 (Rep. Doolittle): Nothing much has changed since last month. Doolittle is under heavy investigation for his ties with Abramoff, and he is refusing to retire, drawing fire from his own party. Democrats are running 2006 nominee Brown, and if Doolittle stays the GOP candidate, they seem assured of carrying the seat. But if the RNCC is successful in getting Doolittle to retire, the race will drop down and strongly favor Republican. It is a red district and is rated so high only because of Doolittle’s troubles.
• NM-1 (Open, upgraded): Heather Wilson is running for Senate, and this swing district finally opened up. Republicans got the candidate they white when Sheriff White jumped in the race, but the seat slightly leans Democratic and that should play help the Democratic nominee (right now probably Heinrich, but 2006 nominee Patricia Madrid could jump in) cross the finish line. White released a poll showing him ahead in a general election, but it was an internal poll. We will downgrade the race is that is confirmed by independent pollsters
• OH-15 (Open): Republicans have pretty much given up on this seat since Rep. Pryce announced she was retiring.  A whole line-up of Republicans passed up on the race one after the other, most notably former Ohio Attorney General Jim Petro. Democrat Kilroy (the 2006 nominee) seems to have the Dem nomination wrapped up, and should sail to victory. With so many other seats to worry about in Ohio, the GOP will likely not spend that much time defending this one.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney)

Republican seats, Toss-up (12)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Angie Paccione, the 2006 nominee, was preparing for a rematch against Musgrave, but announced she was dropping out in late September. This leaves Betsy Markey, a former aide to Senator Salazar, as the likely Democratic nominee.
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays)
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Democrats are in the midst of a tight primary fight between Jay Footlik and 2006 nominee Daniel Seals.
• IL-11 (Open, upgraded): Rep. Weller’s decision to call it quits in this competitive district made it a top target for Democrats overnight. Their hand strengthened when they unexpectedly convinced Senate Majority Leader Debbie Halvorson to jump in, while the leading Republican declined to run.  Depending on where GOP recruitment ends up, this race could soon move up to “Lean Takeover.”
• MN-03 (Open): Rep. Ramstad’s retirement made this race an instant toss-up, but the GOP is reportedly pressuring him to reconsider his decision, arguing that conditions are too bad this cycle and Ramstad should wait one more to open his seat. That about tells you how vulnerable this seat is.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes)
• NJ-03 (Rep. Saxton, upgraded): Republicans think they finally have the candidate in this swing district that Bush narrowly carried in 2004 but that Gore won by 10 points in 2000. State Senator John Adler is running, 18 years after a first run against Saxton at age 31. Depending on who tops the presidential ticket, this race could go either way.
• OH-1 (Rep. Chabot)
• OH-16 (Open): Rep. Regula announced he would retire in mid-October, after years of speculation that his time had come. Democrats are running a strong candidate in the form of state Senator John Boccieri, but it might very well be that they would have had an easier time defeating the aging Regula than competing for an open seat in a district that is marginally Republican.
• NY-25 (Rep. Walsh)
• PA-6 (Rep. Gerlach)
• VA-11 (Rep. Davis, possibly open; downgraded): In the last rankings, this seat was ranked “lean takeover” because Tom Davis looked sure to jump in the Senate seat and open up this northern Virginia district in a region that has beentrending Democratic. But it now looks like Davis might  not retire after all. Democrats are certain to challenge him more than they did in 2006, but Davis would start up as the favorite if he runs.
• WA-8 (Rep. Reichert)

Read the rest of the rankings — and detailed accounts of many more races, including Democratic toss-ups, lean retentions, etc…, here!

The field is beginning to take shape in New Mexico: yesterday, it was reported that NM-02 Rep. Steve Pearce would join Rep. Heather Wilson in what is shaping up to be a contentious Republican primary, and that Democrat Patricia Madrid will not run for the seat.

While a sizable chunk of the New Mexico GOP’s small bench have thrown their hats in the race, their only statewide-elected official, State Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, has decided against running.

We’re still awaiting a decision from Lt. Governor Diane Denish (D), and rumors are circulating that Rep. Tom Udall, who crushed the GOP competition in a hypothetical poll by SUSA, may be reconsidering his decision not to run.  Stay tuned.

On a final note, in her interview with NM blogger Heath Haussamen, Madrid says that she hasn’t ruled out another run for the vacant House seat of Heather Wilson.  Advice to Patsy: let common sense prevail and enjoy your private sector career.

So many stories, so little time.  Let’s do some quick hits.

• FL-24: Muck-encrusted Rep. Tom Feeney is going to face a major Democratic challenger next year: former state Rep. Suzanne Kosmas.  Kosmas was recruited by the DCCC to run after internal polling showed her in a competitive race against Abramoff associate Feeney.  Glad to have this race filled.  I’m looking forward to taking this crumb-bum on, who recently derided the proposed S-CHIP expansion as a “budget-busting, Cuban-style health care plan”.  Your modern Republican Party in action, folks!
  
• NM-Sen: Chuck Schumer and EMILY’s list are trying to recruit New Mexico Lt. Gov. Diane Denish to consider the Senate race.  Let’s hope Chuck can pull off another miracle here.
  
• IL-11: So get this: two of the Republicans running to succeed scandal-plagued Jerry Weller don’t exactly look formidable out of the starting gate.  New Lenox Mayor Tim Balderman gets the kiss of death by being endorsed by Weller, while Marguerite Murer, a former Bush Administration staffer who ran the Correspondence office for the president, has fun inflating her bio:

  With the civilian rank equivalent to a two-star general, Marguerite charged forward leading Correspondence with solid business principles. From the war on terror and securing our homeland, to Medicare, Supreme Court nominations and the devastating Hurricane Katrina, Marguerite has communicated with millions of Americans. (Emphasis added)

  What a laugh.
  

• WA-08: Darcy Burner posts a big fundraising haul this quarter–$305K raised and $370K CoH, thanks in part to the netroots community during the Burn Bush effort this summer.
  
• NM-01: The Democratic primary is getting a lot more crowded in this open seat race, with state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham formally entering the race today.  The retirement of Wilson has been a blessing and a curse for Martin Heinrich, who was previously seen as the front runner for the nomination.

From The Hill:

Rep. Heather Wilson (R-N.M) will run for the New Mexico Senate seat that is expected to open up officially later Thursday when Sen. Pete Domenici (R) declares that he will not seek reelection in 2008, according to a source familiar with Wilson’s decision.

A Wilson candidacy could prove to be a great twofer for Democrats: her involvement in the US Attorney scandal provides plenty of baggage to damage her Senate chances, and she leaves behind yet another open House seat ripe for the picking (at a PVI of D+2.4, Kerry won the district by three points in 2004).

And, from a Schumer statement via e-mail:

“New Mexico is a state where Democrats have a long history of winning elections, and with a deep bench of talented Democratic candidates, we look forward to fielding a nominee who will wage a successful campaign.  We feel very good about our chances to increase the Democratic majority in the Senate next year.”

Let the games begin.

UPDATE: More reaction from CQ Politics:

New Mexico’s two other House members, Democrat Tom Udall and Republican Steve Pearce, both were said to be mulling bids for the Senate race.

Democratic Rep. Mark Udall of Colorado said his cousin, Tom Udall, has “been planning for this moment,” but noted that Richardson remains a key player in the process. Udall was not expected to announce anything Thursday.
Pearce said he wanted to wait “a respectful time” before making a decision. “We should not be jockeying for position, kicking him out the door,” he said.

In a statement, Richardson said Domenici had been a “respected and powerful champion for New Mexico’s interests” for more than three decades. Tom Reynolds, a spokesman for his presidential campaign, said Richardson remained “100 percent committed to winning the White House.”

Democratic Lt. Gov. Denise Denish, who has been gearing up to run for governor in 2010 when Richardson would be term-limited out of office, said she would consider the Senate race.

“This reshuffles the whole deck in New Mexico,” she said of Domenici’s retirement.

“I’ve been very focused on running for governor and that’s still where my focus is right now, but I think in fairness I need to listen to some people that are talking to me about the possibility of running for this Senate seat and see what they have to say and see what the possibilities are,” she added.

Former New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid also said she was considering a bid for the seat. Madrid lost the 2006 election against Wilson for the 1st Congressional District by fewer than 900 points, and said she expected she would perform better in a statewide contest. “I think that I could run a very credible race,” she said.

The beginning of the month brought the Senate rankings. Two weeks have passed, so it is time to look at the picture in the House. As bad as this week was for the GOP on the Senate (and make no mistake about it, between Hagel’s retirement and Warner and Shaheen jumping in the race, this was as bad as it can get), House Republicans did their best to beat that. After a month of recruitment failures and retirement announcements, Republicans are not at their best in House races, and while some of them were hoping that they could reconquer the House in November 2008, that looks increasingly unlikely.

Read full ranking at Campaign Diaries.

It is naturally very early to tell where most of these races are headed. House contests develop much later than Senate ones. On the Senate side, most Senators are nearing announcements about whether they will run again, and most challengers have already taken steps towards launching their campaign. But on the House side, the recruitment drive is only starting and many more retirements are still expected.

It is however a good exercise to rank these races, see which ones are already in play, which ones are gearing up to be the most competitive of the next cycle, and where the challenging party really hasn’t gotten its act together. The overall picture favors Democrats: They are defending no competitive open seats, have put together some good challengers, and are benefiting from the national environment. Many Republicans who barely survived in 2006 are now being targeted, and races that were under-funded then will be treated as top-notch opportunities next year.

But Republicans also have a lot of opportunities: Of the 31 freshmen democrats who picked-up GOP seats last fall, many hold very red districts that are likely to vote even more Republican in a presidential year. Many are already being put to the test, and Republicans are claiming some recruitment victories (CA-11 or CT-5). But the GOP will have to work hard to put all the seats it wants in play.

Outlook: 6-10 seat Democratic pick-up

Here is the description ofonly the first ten seats. Go here for the full rankings!

Republican seats, Lean take-over (4)

• AZ-1 (Open): Ethically challenged Renzi’s retirement gave Republicans a better shot at keeping the seat. But this is exactly the kind of scandal-tainted seat Democrats were so good at winning in 2006, so there is no reason to think they are not favored today.
• CA-4 (Incumbent: Doolittle): This district is very heavily Republican and will favor the GOP in a heartbeat again if only FBI-investigated Doolittle gets out of the race. But he is claiming he will run — and as long as he does Democrat Brown (who almost beat him in 2006) has a great shot.
• OH-15 (Open): Pryce did not want to go through another nasty and close race and called it quits, and major Republicans (like former AG Petro) passed on the race since then. Meanwhile, 2006 Democratic nominee Kilroy has been campaigning for months and is likely to take away the district.
• VA-11 (Likely open): Tom Davis is running for Senate, and his district is in blue-trending Northern Virginia. This is exactly the kind of place in which Virginia Democrats have been making huge progress in recent years. Nothing is set in stone until Davis runs, but a huge headache for the GOP.

Democratic seats, Lean take-over (1)

• FL-16 (Rep. Mahoney): Foley’s former seat, that Mahoney only won because of the page scandal. That Republicans only lost by one point under these as-bad-as-it-gets local circumstances shows that Mahoney is not that strong here. Republicans are happy with their candidates, and plan to use Mahoney’s recent statements (such as one declaring that Congress “wasn’t the greatest job”) against him.

Republican seats, Toss-up (11)

• CO-4 (Rep. Musgrave): Musgrave, best known for her obsession in the anti-gay marriage amendment, has been constantly under-performing in this district, and she won by a few points in 2006. Democrats did not pay that much attention to the race then, but they will this time. There is a primary between Angie Paccione (the 2006 nominee) and Betsy Markey (a former Salazar aide).
• CT-4 (Rep. Shays): Shays survived two extremely close races in 2004 and 2006. This time, the candidate has changed and Jim Himes has been highly touted as the Democrat who will finally take out the last New England Republican. Shays is also threatening to resign or retire if leaders don’t give him what he wants.
• IL-10 (Rep. Kirk): Netroots favorite Dan Seals got 47% in 2006, and is back for a rematch. IL-10 was on few people’s watchlist in 2006 but this is the kind of district the DCCC will go after this time around.
• NC-8 (Rep. Hayes): Hayes won by a few hundred votes in 2006 against a Democrat to whom no one in DC was paying attention, and who received no funding from the DCCC. This time, Kissel has everyone’s attention and will get help from the national party. But Hayes, who was caught off-foot in 2006, will be prepared too.
• NM-1 (Rep. Wilson): One of the closest races in 2006. Wilson thought her streak of victories against highly-touted Democrat would allow her to get a pass in 2008, but that was before the attorney scandal put her at the heart of an ethics controversy.

etc…!

Read the rest of the rankings (there are still plenty of seats described in detail and rated!) at Campaign Diaries.

It seems that Pete Domenici and Heather Wilson are now both in trouble from both sides of the political spectrum. While the two toers-of-the-GOP-party-line generally don’t expect support from the progressive Dems, when the hawkish Republicans go after them… then they know they’re in trouble.

And this group is spending some serious cash on the two New Mexico Republicans.  According to a list e-mailed from Americans United for Change, reprinted at Daily Kos, the group is spending over $250,000 on these ads targeting Wilson and Domenici.  This is the fourth-most being spent in a single area, remarkable considering two of the other targets are in Philadelphia, PA and Washington DC — much more expensive media markets.  This group really is going after Domenici and Wilson.

I won’t get into the problems with the right-wing ad itself — I’ll let Americans United for Change do that, in a video you can see below the fold, but instead discuss its effects on Domenici and Wilson.

Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

The funny thing about the attack from a group of Bush supporters is it is based on, for Domenici and Wilson at least, what they have said in the press.  Not on what they have actually done, but what they’ve said.  They’ve talked about a new direction in Iraq, they’ve publicly tried to soften their position on Iraq… but then their actions, their votes, betray them.

Take a look at Domenici on “War and Peace”.  Every single time he has voted on a bill concerning the war in Iraq, he has gone with the hawkish “stay the course” message.  He even was among the majority who voted to protect the Halliburtons of the world by voting “NO on investigating contract awards in Iraq & Afghanistan.”  In other words, Domenici was not only for no-bid contracts, he was also for not investigating the waste of money afterwards.  Not exactly fiscally conservative, is he?

It’s no surprise to anyone with any knowledge of Domenici’s past that he is so hawkish.  But it is a bit ironic that the right-wing group

Heather Wilson, the Congressional Representative for New Mexico’s First Congressional District, has been making the rounds around the state.  Wilson has been making public appearances in, among other places, Las Cruces and Los Alamos; both areas well outside her congressional district.

Joe Monahan draws the obvious conclusion:

Read it under the fold. Crossposted at New Mexico FBIHOP.

She’s recently been in Clovis, Los Alamos and Las Cruces. Now one of the Alligators has an unconfirmed report that ABQ GOP Rep. Heather Wilson has had an appearance slated for Farmington. You know the score, but it bears repeating. Wilson is positioning herself for the US senate seat held by Senator Domenici–just in case. Domenici is indeed running for a seventh term in ’08, but frail health is the opponent that could keep him out of the race. He is 75.

Some Democrats complain that Wilson is in denial after having only won her ’06 reelect by less than 900 votes and that appearing around the state is a sign of arrogance. But with the Dems set to start a heated primary to see who will win the right to challenge her in ’08, Wilson is largely out of their line of fire, giving her the opportunity to roam freely. A US senate opening in NM is a once in a generation event, if that. If Wilson has any ambition for the seat, she must stay positioned, regardless of the current political odds. Ditto for GOP US Rep. Steve Pearce who is doing the same, but further below the radar than the determined congresswoman.

  I don’t quite agree with the first sentence of the second paragraph — what Democrats are “complain[ing]” about Wilson being in denial?  Of course she is, she is not safe in her own seat, but Democrats will not “complain” about this.

Instead, they will view it as an opportunity to not only pick up a seat in the House, but also a seat in the Senate, if another viable statewide candidate steps in from the Democratic side. 

But Wilson wouldn’t even be safe in the Republican primary.  She would face stiff competition from the right in Steve Pearce.  If Domenici retires (a big “if” at this point), there would be a fierce battle between Wilson and Pearce.  And Wilson’s posturing at being a “moderate” (even though she is far from one) will hurt her in a primary. 

So Wilson, on her Tour de New Mexico, has to delicately balance between her purported position as a moderate and a position as a hardcore conservative which would help her in a hard-fought primary. 

Of course, all this is moot if Domenici steps aside after the primary in favor of Wilson.  This wouldn’t be the first time — remember the ol’ Damron-Dendahl switcheroo?