Tag: Arlen Specter

Rasmussen (8/11, likely voters, 6/16 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 47 (51)

Joe Sestak (D): 34 (32)

Other: 3 (4)

Undecided: 16 (13)

(MoE: ±5%)

Those are the best nums for Joe Sestak yet from any pollster. (Quinnipiac had Specter up by 32 points in mid-July.) Perhaps there’s a bit of an announcement bounce for Sestak in effect here, but if these numbers are accurate, Arlen Specter has a lot to worry about.

Also interesting was this tidbit:

Among voters who favor the congressional health care plan, Specter leads 55% to 26%. However, among those who oppose the plan, Sestak leads 61% to 25%.

So, despite challenging Specter from the left, Sestak is gobbling up the early support of seemingly anti-public option Democrats. Go figure.

Rasmussen’s favorability numbers have shown little movement since June; Specter’s at 71-25 while Sestak’s sitting on an implausibly high 54-23. (That so many people have an opinion of Sestak is probably due to IVR methodology.) Quinnipiac painted a much different picture last month, with Specter carrying a 45-44 favorable rating to Sestak’s 23-7. UPDATE: Um, whoops. Sorry to realize this so late, but I was not making an apples-to-apples comparison between Rasmu’s Democratic favorability numbers and Quinnipiac’s favorability stats from all voters. My bad. Q’s Democratic numbers: Specter was at 73-16 and Sestak was at a good-but-still-mostly-unknown 30-3.

(H/T: P-Wire)

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

Last cycle, I started an ActBlue page specifically for Democratic Senate candidates working to pick up seats held by Republicans.  I named it the Expand the Map! ActBlue page because the goal was to expand the map of competitive Senate seats.  The effort was a big success, achieving over 300 contributions and $40,000 for the Democratic Senate candidates included on the page.

Today, I kicked off the 2010 edition of the Expand the Map! ActBlue page with three Democratic candidates for Senate: Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan, New Hampshire Congressman Paul Hodes, and Pennsylvania Congressman Joe Sestak.

Click here to visit the Expand the Map! ActBlue page!

In New Hampshire and Missouri, we have the strongest candidates available, candidates who will also make terrific Democratic Senators.  In both races, however, fundraising will always be a top priority.  Missouri Republican Roy Blunt will be able to tap his lobbyist buddies and corrupt cronies for cash ad nauseum.  No doubt the NRSC will also make holding New Hampshire a top priority; and the D.C. GOP establishment has already begun fawning over Palin-esque quitter Kelly Ayotte.  Carnahan and Hodes need our support!  A few years back, all four of New Hampshire’s and Missouri’s combined Senate seats were held by Republicans.  Wouldn’t it feel great to have flipped all four?

In Pennsylvania, y’all know the deal.  Arlen Specter was a Republican Senator for decades.  Even though he changed his Party affiliation, he’s still not a Democrat as far as I’m concerned.  Joe Sestak is a real Democrat, and he – not Specter – should win the Democratic primary.  But Specter has a significant edge when it comes to campaign cash; and, Ed Rendell will do all he can to shut off Sestak’s fundraising.  Let Specter, Rendell, etc. know that they can’t shut down the netroots by supporting Sestak!

Please, please, please help kick off the 2010 cycle’s Expand the Map! effort by sending these highly deserving Democrats a few bucks.  $100 makes a huge difference, $20 makes a huge difference, $10 makes a huge difference!  Hop over to the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and make your voice heard.

This is not just a contribution to these Democrats’ campaigns.  This is a contribution toward slowing and eventually stopping Republican obstruction in the U.S. Senate.  Thank you SO much!

It was a big day in Pennsylvania, with Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak formally announcing his primary challenge to recent convert Arlen Specter this morning. Sestak faces a major challenge in going up against an incumbent backed by the White House and sitting on big leads in the polls, but he likes it that way:

“I love being the underdog,” Sestak said. “A lot of room to grow. Seventy percent of the people don’t know me enough to make a decision, and I’m going to give them that opportunity.”

In a D-on-D primary like this, with Arlen Specter being forced to smooth out his long list of conservative votes as part of the GOP caucus for decades, hitting back against Sestak isn’t an easy thing to do… but Specter’s team is making the effort. From the miracle of human and technological evolution that is Twitter:

“His months of indecisiveness on his candidacy raises a real question as to his competency to handle the tough rapid-fire decisions required of a Senator,” Specter wrote.

“During his continuing taxpayer-financed self-promotion tour around the State, Sestak should explain why, when Pennsylvanians are working harder, he can barely show up for work.”

Sestak will try to make Specter answer for a laundry list of crappy votes (from Iraq to Bush’s economic agenda) — votes that the recent progressive convert will have a hard time justifying, so he’ll try to make this primary be a referendum on his seniority, and, I guess, record of “getting things done”. Somehow I think Sestak has the saucier narrative.

Meanwhile, a somewhat hilarious sideshow to this Dem fracas is likely GOP nominee Pat Toomey’s pivot to the left, most recently witnessed today by his support for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor. With no primary competition to force his hand, it looks like Toomey will be attempting to quietly put distance between himself and the insanity of his Club For Growth brand of politics by making a few of these easy concessions to the center. Let’s see how far this takes him.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

After months of endless and merciless teasing, it looks like this is for real:

U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak is set to announce one of the worst-kept secrets in politics tomorrow: a Democratic primary challenge to veteran Sen. Arlen Specter in 2010.

Sestak, a retired Navy flag officer, will make a “major campaign announcement” in an 8:30 a.m. appearance before supporters at the Herbert W. Best VFW Post in Folsom, Delaware County.

That will be followed by a two-day tour that will take him to Pittsburgh, Johnstown, Harrisburg, and Scranton before ending Wednesday with an appearance on Comedy Central’s Colbert Report.

Sestak’s announcement will be streamed live on his website. Let the games begin.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

Pennsylvania, my home state, will see a lot of big races in 2010. We are electing a new Governor – electing new members of Congress from vacant seats, have a Senate election, and progressive Democrats need to win in the State House and Senate races (We have a very un-progressive Republican state Senate, the only Republican chamber left in the Northeast). It is CRITICAL that the netroots and the grassroots and all of the progressives come together and focus on PA…it's very important.

Please read on to learn more about our 2010 races!

Pennsylvania has been a swing state for some time now so what happens here is VERY IMPORTANT nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Democrats have both Senate seats for the first time since 1968 (okay, January 1969) thanks to the Specter Switcheroo.

Pat Toomey is Rick Santorum 2.0, and he MUST NOT become our new Senator. Arlen Specter or Joe Sestak MUST win.

Our Senate race is very important and has NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS, especially since Arlen Specter is known throughout the country for his switch to the Democratic Party. If Senator Specter wins his primary, we must vigorously support his re-election, no matter what.  So that means no more of the Snarlin' Arlen comments!

The U.S. House

The House delegation has gone from 12-7 Republican to 11-8, with four Democratic pickups (The biggest Democratic sweep in ANY state in 2006- no other state had more than 3 pickups).  In 2008, Democrat Kathy Dahlkemper won in PA-3 (the Erie district) and now we are at 12-7, a complete reversal of pre-2006.

We want to make sure Democrats continue to stay on a roll.

PA-15

My Congressional district of PA-15 is going to be one of the most important races in the country (to me, THE most important House race and a bellwether for the entire nation). Charlie Dent, Republican, has had a VERY easy time winning here despite a prO-bama majority. Mayor John Callahan of Bethlehem is running for the Democratic nomination.  We must make him Congressman. Plus, if you ask me, he's kinda cute (-:

 Mayor Callahan's Campaign Site (Very new)

PA-8

Jim Gerlach is running in the Republican primary for Governor and we have (so far) Doug Pike, who I don't know much about but will support if he is the Democrat.  I think this is VERY winnable.  If Gerlach loses, I'm not so sure he can get back into the race.  Curt Schroder is already running.  A Pike victory will mean A LOT on Election Day since it is expected the Republicans will narrowly hold onto this seat in the Philly suburbs.  It's an Obama district though.

Governor's Race

We also have to watch the Governor's race- most likely it will be between Jack Wagner and Tom Corbett.  Ed Rendell will not have very good approval ratings which will bode poorly for the Democrat but hopefully Jack Wagner (or Dan Onorato from Pittsburgh) will run a top-notch campaign and really narrow that gap in the last few weeks.  My mind says Corbett though.  Please let me wrong.

State Senate

We have a ridiculous 30-20 Republican majority in the State Senate and it keeps getting bigger by the day, so to turn it blue we'll need SIX MAGIC SEATS to take it back (I'm assuming Democrats had control of it at one point).

We will have 25 chances to win the Senate (half of it is up for election in 2010) and most of these will remain the same, however…judging from previous election results, I see these six Republican seats as the most vulnerable (Keeping in mind that they were all last up in 2006, a Democratic year):

SD 6 – held by Robert Tomlinson (R), last won by 53.4%

SD 10 – held by Chuck McIlhinney (R), won by a measly 51.5% against Democrat Chris Serpico

SD 12 – held by Stewart J. Greenleaf (R), won by 57.4%

SD 16 – held by Pat Browne (R), won by 54.2%

SD 24 – Bob Wonderling (R), won by 56.5%

SD 26 – Edwin Erickson (R), won by 52.2% (his challenger in '06 was Mike Farrell)

SD 34 – Jacob Corman (R), won by 56.0% (but Democrat Jon Eich only got 39.1%)

SD 44 – John Rafferty (R), won by 56.2%

SD 50 – Bob Robbins (R), won by 53.5% (challenger was Art Allen)

 The good news is that all of the Democratic seats will likely, barring any unusual events, be safe so we can focus on these nine seats, which are ripe for a takeover.

 State House

Democrats hold onto a 104-99 majority.  It's clearly not a safe majority.

All of the 201-or-some House seats are up and there are a lot of opportunities to pick off some of these Republicans, so let's go through the seats where the Republican won by less than 60%:

HD 15 – Jim Christiana, 51.5%

HD 26 – Tim Hennessy, 52.1%

HD 57 – Tim Krieger, 51.7%

HD 75 – Matt Gabler, 52.8%

HD 128 – Sam Rohrer, 52.2%

HD 142 – Frank Farry, 51.7%

HD 146 – Thomas Quigley, 53.4%

HD 187 – Gary Day, 52.3%

If we win all of these eight seats (a nice goal), and keep onto our close seats, we will have a 112-91, which will be a significant improvement.

Worst Case Scenario

If the Republicans win PA big, we will have:

U.S. Senator Pat Toomey (formerly the president of right-wing Club for Growth and you can just imagine those tax breaks for the rich)

Governor Tom Corbett replacing the fairly progressive Ed

A 30-20 Republican Senate (I sincerely doubt they'll win any Democratic seats)

A Republican State House (which will pass an anti-gay marriage amendment to the Constitution, at top of their to-do list when they retake the House)

The loss of Democrats Paul Kanjorski (he barely won last time around), Jason Altmire (represents a very conservative district), Chris Carney (representing an even more conservative district), freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, Republican victories in the 6th and 15th, which will give the Republicans a pickup of FOUR seats…which would undo the results of 2006, and perhaps if Joe Sestak runs for the Senate and abandons his House seat they will have FIVE seat pickups.

So as you can see the stakes cannot be higher here in the Keystone State.

• AR-Sen: It took new Arkansas Senate candidate Conrad Reynolds only the first day of his candidacy to descend to the same levels of right-wing gaffe insanity as fellow candidates Kim Hendren and Curtis Coleman. Speaking before about a dozen Young Republicans yesterday, he said, “I never thought it would be domestic, but in today’s world I do believe we have enemies here,” and then said “We need someone to stand up to Barack Obama and his policies. We must protect our culture, our Christian identity.” Following his speech, though, before he took questions, he said he’d be careful with answers, as “I don’t want to do a Kim Hendren,” he said.

• NH-Sen: It looks like Ovide Lamontagne is going full speed ahead on a run in the New Hampshire Senate primary, with his path, be it as it may, gaving gotten easier with fellow renegade Fred Tausch dropping out. He hired two key members of the Mitt Romney camp: Charlie Spies, who was the Romney campaign’s CFO, and Jim Merrill, who managed Romney’s NH campaign.

• NV-Sen: Here’s another bad sign for John Ensign: his chief of staff, John Lopez, just bailed out. The timing, with Ensign facing fallout over trying to cover up an affair with a staffer, probably isn’t coincidental.

• PA-Sen: In the wake of yesterday’s ominious Quinnipiac poll, Arlen Specter has retreated to the last refuge of troubled politicians: attacking the poll’s composition. (Hey! That’s our job!) Nate Silver re-ran the numbers using the actual 2008 party split (D 44, R 37, I 18) and found it really didn’t make much difference: 46-43 in Specter’s favor. Meanwhile, a popular new activity among Democratic party bigwigs in Pennsylvania is telling Joe Sestak to shut up; both Allegheny Co. party chair Jim Burn and Philly-area official Penny Gerber took loud exception to implications from the Sestak camp that they were backing him.

• AK-Gov: Two Democrats both officially announced their candidacies to run, presumably, against Sean Parnell in 2010: state Senator Hollis French, and former Dept. of Administration Commissioner Bob Poe. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz also says he’ll officially become a candidate in late summer or early fall.

• MN-Gov: Democratic State Rep. Paul Thissen announced his candidacy for Minnesota’s governor today. Hard to see, though, how a state Representative stands out in a field that seems to contain every major politician in the state.

• CA-10: EMILY’s List finally got involved in the special election in CA-10. As you’d expect, they’re backing Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who as the only woman in the race has a definite shot to sneak through while the better-known male candidates (Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier) split the vote.

• IL-10: A new Roll Call piece on IL-10 adds a few more names to the potential primary fields. For the Dems, Highland Park City Councilor Jim Kirsch may get in. And for the GOP, it sounds like state Sen. Matt Murphy is now thinking about running here; he’s currently running for Governor, in a crowded field of second-stringers, and might stand better odds here.

• NC-08: Lou Huddleston, an African-American veteran and defense industry consultant, may wind up being the GOP’s candidate against Larry Kissell; after having visited Capitol Hill for some wooing, he says he’ll decide by Labor Day. (His one attempt at elective politics was a losing campaign for a state House seat in 2008.) Some bigger names, including ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, haven’t ruled the race out yet, though.

• NJ-03: The Burlington County GOP is saying that moderate state Sen. Diane Allen (who’d been on the short list for Chris Christie’s Lt. Gov. pick) is now their top choice to run against freshman Rep. John Adler. Interestingly, this is the same organization that basically torpedoed her interest in running for the open seat in 2008, leaving more conservative Chris Myers (and presumably less electable) to run instead. Allen is still sounding non-commital, especially since the party leadership in more conservative Ocean County continues to sound lukewarm about her.

• NY-23: The Conservative Party isn’t at all pleased with the selection of socially liberal Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as the GOP’s candidate in the NY-23 special election. State party chair Mike Long said that likely Democratic candidate Darrel Aubertine actually has a more “palatable” record. The Conservatives plan to run their own candidate on their line, he says, and party activist Jim Kelly has expressed interest.

• OH-02: This is good news: the Democrats actually found an honest-to-gosh state Representative to go against Rep. Jean Schmidt: Todd Book. David Krikorian, who got a sizable share of the vote as an Independent in 2008, is already running as a Democrat in the primary, but looks like he’s getting shoved over: Governor Ted Strickland has already endorsed Book. (Book is from Strickland’s hometown of Portsmouth.)

• SC-01: A Georgetown restauranteur, Robert Dobbs, announced he’ll run for the Democrats in SC-01. He has electoral experience… but in Wisconsin, where he was a Manitowoc County Supervisor. (Although I hope it is, I assume this isn’t the “Bob” Dobbs.) Other more prominent Democratic figures, like state Rep. Leon Stavinrakis, are also considering the race.

• SC-03: Former Cincinnati Bengals coach Sam Wyche, who led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 1989, is considering running as a Republican for the open seat in the 3rd, vacated by Gresham Barrett, running for Governor. Wyche isn’t a total newbie to politics, as he’s currently serving on the Pickens County Council. He’d bring a lot of name recognition to the field, where state Representative Rex Rice is probably current frontrunner. (Democrats are unlikely to strongly contest this freakishly red district.)

Quinnipiac (7/14-19, registered voters, 5/20-26 in parens):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45 (46)

Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)

Undecided: 14 (10)

Joe Sestak (D): 35 (37)

Pat Toomey (R): 39 (35)

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±2.8%)

Primary:

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 55 (50)

Joe Sestak (D): 23 (21)

Undecided: 19 (27)

(MoE: ±4.3%)

Snarlin’ Arlen finds himself on slightly more comfortable footing in the primary, but the general election is a different story. I can’t tell if the sample’s been skewed a bit in the GOP’s favor or not — Quinnipiac did poll an almost equal amount of Dems as they did Republicans this time, which is not something they did in May (and not something that reflects the Democratic registration advantage in PA), but it’s also possible that these are oversamples made for the purposes of getting a clearer primary picture on both sides. It’s hard for me to tell without being able to pop open the hood. It’d be surprising to me if Quinnipiac fell victim to a mistake that any Polling 101 student would spot, but stranger things have happened.

RaceTracker Wiki: PA-Sen

• TX-Gov: Holy crap, Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for Governor of Texas! Of course, everyone with a pulse has known this for most of a year, but it’s now official: she’s done exploring the race and formally launched her campaign yesterday. She also found a lot of cash under the couch cushions during all those explorations, as she put together $6.7 million during the first half of the year. Factoring in her $8 million transfer from her Senate account, she’s sitting on about $12 million CoH. Her primary opponent, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, raised $4.2 million in the year’s first half (a lot, considering he couldn’t raise during the legislative session) and has $9.3 million CoH.

• FL-Sen: Ordinarily, you probably wouldn’t want to spotlight an endorsement from an unlikable jerk with a ridiculous name, but Marco Rubio is trying to rally the nationwide wingnut brigade to his financially faltering campaign ($340K last quarter), so he rolled out an endorsement from ex-House Majority Leader Dick Armey today.

• IL-Sen: Now that he’s done holding his breath and turning blue until that nasty Andy McKenna would go away, Rep. Mark Kirk has announced that he’ll announce that he’ll announce that he’ll announce his candidacy, or something like that, “in one week.” Roll Call also has a look at the consternation that Kirk’s messed-up rollout caused both local and national GOP figures, stepping on their attempts to crow “recruitment success.”

Meanwhile, people are starting to wonder openly when if ever businessman Chris Kennedy is going to pull the trigger on getting into the Dem field. His hesitation is already landing him in legal hot water: a local police officer filed an FEC complaint against Kennedy for allegedly spending more than $5,000 on campaign outlays without actually having a campaign in place.

• NV-Sen: John Ensign (apparently emboldened by fellow C Street dweller Mark Sanford’s seat-of-his-pants survival of his own affair) is proceeding full speed ahead, not just planning not to resign but to run for re-election in 2012. TPM wonders out loud if Harry Reid is one of the Dems who’ve urged Ensign to stay on board.

• PA-Sen: The NRSC finally officially endorsed Pat Toomey today. This comes hot on the heels of news that state Sen. Jane Orie (who was being chatted up by the NRSC last week) has decided against running against Pat Toomey in the GOP senate primary. Rumors abound that Rick Santorum, nursing some sort of grudge against Toomey, was the driving force behind the Orie boomlet. Meanwhile, Arlen Specter today announced a 2Q haul of $1.7 million, narrowly topping both Toomey ($1.6 million) and Joe Sestak ($1 million in his House account).

• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is sitting on a ton of cash now, having added $15 million of her own money on top of $6.7 million in private contributions, bringing her total stash to more than $25 million. Her GOP primary rival, Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner anted up $5 million of his own money, along with $1.2 million in contributions, during that same period.

• CT-Gov: A strangely quiet fundraising period for Jodi Rell has some wondering if she’s going to run for re-election. She raised $20,000 in the most recent quarter, with $71K CoH, outpaced by potential Democratic challengers SoS Susan Bysiewicz ($141K for the quarter) and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy ($147K).

• OH-Gov: Betcha didn’t know that ex-Rep. John Kasich had an opponent in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Ohio: state Sen. Kevin Coughlin. Well, apparently no one else knew that either, and having gotten nowhere on the fundraising front in the face of party opposition, Coughlin bailed out yesterday.

• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds beat Bob McDonnell in fundraising in June ($3.4 million for Deeds, $1.8 million for McDonnell), but he had to blow through a lot of that in the primary. McDonnell is sitting on a lot more cash on hand, with almost $5 million compared with Deeds’ $2.7 million.

• CA-11: This is the first I’ve heard of this guy — vintner Brad Goehring — who’s planning to challenge Jerry McNerney in the 11th. He’s not getting off on the right foot, though, with the appearance of 2006 statements where he shrugged off the problem of 40% of his workforce being undocumented immigrants… not likely to help him much with the nativist core of what’s left of the California GOP base.

• CA-32: In case you’d forgotten (and most likely you had; I know I did), the general special election for the race to fill the vacant seat left behind by Labor Sec. Hilda Solis is today. Today’s election is an afterthought, given that the race was basically won in a heavily-contested May primary in this solid Dem district. Someone named “Chu” is guaranteed to win, although in all likelihood it’ll be Democratic Board of Equalization member Judy Chu over Republican Monterey Park city councilor Betty Chu.

• FL-12: The Blue Dogs have already weighed in with their first endorsement of the cycle, endorsing Polk Co. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards in the open 12th district to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, who’s running for Florida Agricultural Commissioner.

• KY-St. Sen.: Gov. Steve Beshear is seemingly taking a page from Barack Obama, picking off Republican legislators and giving them secure appointive positions instead, opening up their seats for possible Democratic takeove. Sens. Dan Kelly and Charlie Borders were appointed to a judgeship and the Public Service Commission, respectively. Dems are optimistic about retaking both the seats, with state Rep. Robin Webb looking at Borders’ seat in Kentucky’s NE corner, and former state Rep. Jodie Haydon looking at Kelly’s seat in Bourbon territory in the state’s center. This will hopefully put a dent in the GOP’s 21-16-1 edge.

• Census: Census Director Robert Groves was finally confirmed after the Dems used a cloture vote to break the hold on him, leaving him with only eight months to whip the Census into shape. Only 15 GOPers voted against cloture, including Richard Shelby and David Vitter, the ones who’d had the hold on the nomination, and some of the other dead-enders (Brownback, Bunning, Cornyn, Ensign, Sessions, etc…. although, interestingly, Coburn and Kyl voted for cloture). Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann continues her one-woman war on the Census, proposing legislation that would limit the number of question the American Community Survey (the annual supplement, not the 2010 full count) can ask.

• Polltopia: PPP is asking for your input on another state to poll, so let ’em hear it. The finalists are California, Iowa, and Louisiana.

• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we’re downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren’t reacting to any one recent event (the only two polls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.

• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here’s some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she’s now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities… which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.

• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP’s Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state’s Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk’s recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.

• MO-Sen: In the “did he really just say that file?” Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it “distorts the marketplace.” Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!

• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be “on the table” and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada — Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller — it’s time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there’s a certain pot/kettle thing going on).

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a “flagrant hypocrite” for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm… remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can’t help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They’ve been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she’s almost as conservative as Toomey, so it’s not clear what benefit that would provide).

• AK-Gov: Guess who’s saying “thanks but no thanks” to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who’d like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World’s Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan‘s authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.

• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor’s race and asking “is that all there is?” a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he’d be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).

• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.

• NY-23: Don’t count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn’t made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he’ll have, now that the Senate is back to “normal”).

• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.

• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he’d been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver’s seat for the next mayoral election.

• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.

• IL-Sen: Here’s a fairly big-name entrant to the Illinois Senate: Chicago Urban League President Cheryle Jackson, who just formed an exploratory committee. Jackson had occasionally been rumored to be interested (to the extent that Jan Schakowksy’s internal poll included her, where she got 17% when explicitly substituted for Burris) but hadn’t taken concrete steps. Jackson has two demographic positives: with Schakowsky out, she’d be the only female in the race (unless, of course, Lisa Madigan gets in, in which case the game would be over anyway), and she’d be the only African-American in the race who isn’t Roland Burris. However, she used to be Rod Blagojevich’s press secretary prior to taking over at the Urban League, so the Blago stench may be hard to wash off.

• ND-Sen: All had seemed quiet on the midwestern front, especially after that R2K poll that showed him getting flattened by Byron Dorgan (57-35), but Gov. John Hoeven recently showed at least a peep of interest in running for Senate after all… even if it was just a statement that he was still making up his mind and would decide by September. GOP state chair Randy Emineth said that Hoeven “wants to” run against Dorgan, but we’ll need to actually hear from Hoeven.

• NH-Sen: The swabbies at ARG! pointed their spyglasses toward the 2010 open Senate seat in New Hampshire, and find that Rep. Paul Hodes would defeat ex-Sen. John Sununu 40-36. No numbers for the much-hyped AG Kelly Ayotte.

• NV-Sen, NV-Gov: In the face of relentless wooing from GOP Senators, Rep. Dean Heller has set a deadline of June 30 to make up his mind about whether he runs for Harry Reid’s Senate seat. (Wait a minute… that’s today!) Heller’s other options include staying in NV-02 or running a primary challenge in the governor’s race — where the younger Reid (Rory, the Clark County Commission chair) seems to be staffing up for the race on the Dem side.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who briefly was running against post-party-switch Arlen Specter in the Democratic primary before dropping out, has endorsed Specter. Not surprising, since Torsella is a big ally of Gov. Ed Rendell, who has pledged his support to Specter.

• CT-Gov: More indications that Ned Lamont is getting serious about running for Governor (probably against incumbent Jodi Rell) in 2010. Lamont is looking at an early-2010 deadline for deciding, but can get away with a shorter timeframe as he can self-fund and won’t need a long ramp-up for fundraising.

• NJ-Gov (pdf): PPP takes their turn at polling the New Jersey Governor’s race and find about what everyone else has been finding: Chris Christie leads incumbent Jon Corzine 51-41, with Christie benefiting from a 60-26 lead among independent voters. Good news, relatively speaking, for Corzine, though, is that Christie’s negatives are rising quickly as he’s starting to get defined in the media, up to 43% favorable and 33% unfavorable.

• SC-Gov: Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer has publicly floated the idea that he would stand down from running in 2010 if he got to be Governor now, if Mark Sanford would just go ahead and resign (please?). His potential 2010 rivals are looking at this as statesman-like grandstanding, especially since it looks like Sanford is digging in.

• AK-AL: In case there was any doubt, the indestructible Rep. Don Young has announced that he’s running for re-election. Young is 76 and in perpetual danger of indictment, but with the state’s political talent gravitating toward the Governor’s race, may have an easier path in 2010 than in 2008.

• CA-36: Los Angeles City Councilor Janice Hahn has been telling supporters that she’s interested in running for Rep. Jane Harman’s seat. She doesn’t seem to be thinking primary, though; Hahn, for some reason, believes Harman (still under a bit of a cloud from the wiretap incident) is up for appointment to something, maybe Ambassador to Israel, in the Obama administration.

• FL-12: State Sen. Paula Dockery made clear that she won’t be running in the 12th; she endorsed former State Rep. Dennis Ross for the job. She seemed to leave the door open to the Governor’s race, saying in her statement that “my passion for public policy is in state government.”

• IL-07: With Rep. Danny Davis looking to move over to the Presidency of the Cook County Board, Chicago-area Dems are already eyeing the super-safe open seat. Davis’s former chief of staff Richard Boykin (now a lobbyist for Cook County) seems to be the first to make his interest publicly known.

• NH-01 (pdf): Manchester mayor (and NH-01 candidate) Frank Guinta is due for the Bad Samaritan Award, as he watched several of his friends (an alderman and a state Representative) beat up another acquaintance in a barroom brawl, ending with the man’s leg being broken in seven places, and then immediately left the scene without reporting it to the police. Guinta said he was unaware of the extent of the man’s injuries and contacted police at that point. No charges have been filed in the incident; still, not the kind of free publicity a political candidate likes to get.

• NY-03, NY-Sen-B: Rep. Peter King is sounding even iffier than before about running for Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand, having scored a desired slot on the Intelligence Committee.

• NY-23: Investment banker Matthew Doheny anted up with a lot of cash to jump into the Republican side of the race to replace Rep. John McHugh: $500,000 of his own money. Roll Call reports that he’ll need the ostentatious display of cash to get anywhere in the candidate-picking process, as Assemblypersons Dede Scozzafava and Will Barclay are both reaching out behind the scenes to party leaders.

• Redistricting: Regardless of what nonsense happens in the New York Senate this session, it’s looking more and more like the GOP’s toehold on legislative power will be vanquished in post-2010 redistricting, regardless of who controls the legislative redistricting process. Because of growth in the city and declines upstate, 1.2 seats will need to be shifted from downstate to NYC (and, as an added bonus, an extra one-sixth of a seat will shift to the city if the Census Bureau goes ahead and starts counting prisoners according to where they’re actually from rather than where they’re incarcerated).

• Fusion Voting: Here’s one way in which Oregon suddenly became a lot more like New York: the state legislature decided to allow “fusion voting,” in which a candidate can run on multiple party lines on one ballot. This will be a boost to minor parties in Oregon, by letting them form coalitions with the major parties instead of simply playing spoiler.

• Fundraising: It’s June 30, and you know what that means… it’s the end of the 2nd fundraising quarter. If you want to give some momentum to your favored candidates, today’s the last day to do it.