Tag: Polls
CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Fiorina, Whitman Soar in New SUSA Poll
SurveyUSA (5/21-23, likely and actual voters, 5/6-9 in parens):
Meg Whitman (R): 54 (39)
Steve Poizner (R): 27 (37)
Others (R): 10 (7)
Undecided: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4%)
This is a pretty dramatic gyration for SurveyUSA here, who previously showed a significant tightening of the GOP gubernatorial race just a couple of weeks ago. Keep in mind that two other very recent polls (from Research 2000 and the Public Policy Institute of California) both showed Whitman up on Poizner by only 10 points or less. Among those voters who have already cast their ballots (17% of the sample), Whitman leads Poizner by 55-32.
Senate numbers:
Tom Campbell (R): 23 (35)
Carly Fiorina (R): 46 (24)
Chuck DeVore (R): 14 (15)
Tim Kalemkarian (R): 4 (3)
Undecided: 11 (23)
(MoE: ±4%)
Again, this dramatically different than every other poll we’ve seen, with R2K giving Campbell a 37-22 edge on Fiorina and PPIC also giving Fiorina an edge on Campbell, but only by 25-23. Either this one is a huge outlier, or SUSA is seeing something pretty dramatic that other pollsters have missed. Among those who have already voted, SUSA finds that Fiorina holds a 44-30 lead over Campbell.
In other news, Barbara Boxer has announced that her campaign has raised $2 million since the start of April, bringing her cash-on-hand up to $9.6 million.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/24 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is retooling her ad message quite a bit, now that it’s come crashing home to her that she actually has to suck up to that annoying Democratic base for a few weeks in order to win her runoff in two weeks. Her new ad features lots of Obama footage, and highlights her support of the stimulus package and… well, “support of” might be overstating it, so her vote for HCR. Compare that with her old ad saying “I don’t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas.”
• IL-Sen: Jesse Jackson Jr. seems to be up to some serious no-good in the Illinois Senate primary, although the reason isn’t clear. He’s withheld his endorsement from Alexi Giannoulias so far, and now is going so far as to talk up his respect for Mark Kirk (they serve on Appropriations together) and float the idea of endorsing him. Is he using his endorsement as a bargaining chip to get some squeaky-wheel-greasing (like Jackson’s pet airport project – recall that he didn’t endorse 1998 IL-Gov nominee Glenn Poshard over that very issue), or is he war-gaming his own run against a first-term Kirk in 2016?
• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena is out with a slew of New York data today. They find Kirsten Gillibrand in good position in the Senate race against three second-tier opponents; she beats Bruce Blakeman 51-24, Joe DioGuardi 51-25, and David Malpass 53-22. In the GOP primary, DioGuardi is at 15, Blakeman at 8, and Malpass at 4. I guess they want to be thorough, because they also took a rather in-depth look at the usually neglected NY-Sen-_A_. Charles Schumer beats Nassau Co. Controller George Maragos 65-22, Jay Townsend 63-24, Gary Berntsen 64-23, and Jim Staudenraus 65-21. Political consultant Townsend leads the primary at 10, followed by Maragos at 5, with some dudes Bertnsen and Staudenraus at 3 and 1. They even poll Schumer’s primary, wherein he beats Randy Credico 78-11.
• AK-Gov: DRM Market Research (not working for any particular candidate) polled the two primaries in the Alaska gubernatorial race (which aren’t until August), finding, as expected, GOP incumbent Sean Parnell and Dem Ethan Berkowitz with big leads. Parnell is at 59, with 9 for former state House speaker Ralph Samuels and 7 for Bill Walker. Berkowitz is at 48, with 17 for state Sen. Hollis French and 8 for Bob Poe. Diane Benson, who ran for the House in 2006 and 2008, is running for Lt. Governor this time, and leads the Dem primary there.
• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks is out with some details from an internal poll with one week left to go before the primary, needing to push back not only against an Artur Davis internal but today’s R2K poll. For some reason, there aren’t specific toplines, but Sparks is touting a one-point lead over Davis. The poll also sees Davis polling at only 43% among African-Americans.
• NY-Gov (pdf): Siena has gubernatorial numbers, too. Believe it or not, Andrew Cuomo is winning. He beats Rick Lazio 66-24, Steve Levy 65-22, and Carl Paladino 65-22. In the GOP primary, Lazio is at 29, Carl Paladino at 16, and Steve Levy at 14. How bad do you think state party chair Ed Cox is feeling that his hand-picked Killer-App party-swapper isn’t even polling ahead of a bestiality-email-forwarding teabagger? Well, Cox’s performance here and the Senate races has been so miserable that the latest local conspiracy theory is that Cox is throwing in the towel on the Senate race so that his son, Chris Cox, can have an unimpeded run against Kirsten Gillibrand in 2012. (Of course, the cart is a few miles down the road ahead of the horse; there’s no guarantee Cox Jr. can even make it out of the GOP primary in NY-01, let alone past Tim Bishop.)
• OK-Gov: I don’t know if Mary Fallin is feeling any heat here, but nevertheless, she put out an internal poll taken for her by Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates. She leads both Dems, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson by an identical 52-30 margin. (UPDATE: The Fallin campaign writes in to say this wasn’t an internal, but CHS acting on its own.)
• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley airballed his first salvo of the general election against John Kitzhaber. Dudley accused Kitzhaber of having tried to put the state in debt by borrowing to balance the state’s budget during the 2001 recession. Ooops… Kitzhaber did the exact opposite, as he fought against doing so, against legislators of both parties. (Ted Kulongoski eventually signed off on the idea in 2003, after Kitz was out of office.)
• PA-Gov: Maybe one of his younger, hipper staffers warned him that he was heavy-handedly barking up the wrong tree, as AG and GOP nominee Tom Corbett did a 180, pulling his Twitter subpoena to try and ascertain the identities of several anonymous critics.
• SC-Gov: Well, as is usually the case, the most salacious political news of the day is also the biggest. A South Carolina blogger, Will Folks, who used to be on Nikki Haley’s payroll is now claiming that he and Haley had an affair (prior to Folks’s marriage, but after Haley’s). Folks, believe it or not, is supporting Haley, but apparently wanted to get this out there as other candidates have been pushing oppo research on this to reporters. Haley had had some recent momentum, with a big ad buy on her behalf from the Mark Sanford camp and a corresponding lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll of the primary.
• TX-Gov: This is an internet poll by British pollster YouGov, so, well, have your salt and vinegar shakers handy. Working on behalf of the Texas Tribune and the Univ. of Texas, they find incumbent GOPer Rick Perry with a lead over Dem Bill White 44-35 (and similar-sized leads for the Republicans for all the other statewide offices downballot).
• Polltopia: Here’s some more hard evidence that pollsters are increasingly missing the boat by not polling cellphone users. A new Centers for Disease Control survey finds that nearly a quarter of the adult population is simply being missed by many pollsters (especially autodialers like Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, given limitations on auto-dialing cellphones). The CDC also hints at how cellphone-only adults are not just more urban, more poor, less white, younger, and more Internet-savvy, but also less “domestic” and more “bohemian,” which Nate Silver thinks indicates a different set of political beliefs, too. Given the statistically significant difference between Pew’s generic congressional ballots that include and exclude cellphone users, the cellphone effect seems to be skewing polls away from Dems this cycle — the real question is, are those cellphone-only users at all likely to show up in November?
• Demographics: Josh Goodman has another interesting piece in his redistricting preview series of population changes in big states, this time in Illinois. He finds the greatest population growth in the suburban collar counties of Illinois, also the most politically competitive part of the state these days. While these all trended sharply in the Democratic direction in 2008, the question is whether that trend hold without the Obama favorite-son effect this year.
ID-01: Vaughn Ward: The Gift That Keeps On Giving
Man, I love this fool:
In a kickoff speech for his campaign in January, Ward used language that closely followed Obama’s 2004 speech to the Democratic National Convention, and a conservative Idaho blog spliced together the two sets of remarks to show their similarities, accusing Ward of cribbing from Obama’s remarks.
Here’s what Obama said in 2004: “As we stand at the crossroads of history, we can make the right choices and meet the challenges that face us. If you feel the same urgency that I do, if you feel the same passion that I do, then I have no doubt the people will rise up in November and this country will reclaim its promise and out of this long political darkness, a brighter day will come.”
And here’s what Ward said in January: “As we stand on the crossroads of history, I know we can make the right choice and meet the challenges that lay before us. If you feel the same urgency and the same passion that I do, then I have no doubt that our voices will be heard in November. And our country will reclaim its promise and out of this darkness, a better day is on the horizon.”
Ward’s campaign dismissed the video, and spokesman Mike Tracy told POLITICO: “This is just more of the same from folks who are afraid that Vaughn’s the frontrunner.”
So let’s recap all the struggles that Vaughn Ward, the NRCC’s preferred choice in tomorrow’s Republican primary, has inflicted upon himself in recent weeks. First, Ward hopped aboard the repeal the 17th amendment train, apparently arguing that voters shouldn’t have the right to elect their Senators. Next, the Idaho and Virginia Democratic Parties coordinated to tag-team Ward with the revelations that he served as an intern for then-Idaho state Rep. Jim Hansen, a Democrat, in the early ’90s… and that his name was listed as a volunteer in former Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine’s database. Ward’s campaign was also busted by the local press for attempting to pass off a six month-old press release as news. When called on it, his campaign manager deflected the accusation, saying that it was a mistake caused by him not knowing how to properly operate his new Mac. And, most recently, Ward was heard at a Republican debate referring to Puerto Rico as a “country“; when called on it, Ward reveled in his ignorance, defiantly telling his Puerto Rican opponent, state Rep. Raul Labrador, that he didn’t “care what it is.” (Sadly, in the modern-day Republican Party, this last one may not really qualify as a “gaffe”, as it’s just the sort of cultural dismissiveness that conservatives lap up with glee.)
All that said, I’m sure that movement conservatives can’t be pleased to discover that Ward’s been cribbing notes from the reincarnation of Karl Marx, Barack Obama. (And, for those keeping score, this isn’t the first time Ward’s been busted for plagiarism: He was forced to do damage control after it was revealed that his campaign website’s issues sections was a copy and paste job from other Republican candidate websites.) Perhaps the most amusing thing about all this is that, back in December, former ID-01 Democratic candidate Larry Grant referred to Labrador as a “Bill Sali Republican“. As it turns out, though, Ward has done the best job of earning the title of Bill Sali 2.0.
It’s entirely possible that Ward, who has a huge financial edge on Labrador and recently benefited from a campaign appearance with Sarah Palin, may find that his endless series of gaffes will cost him the Republican nomination tomorrow. Three major Idaho papers all endorsed Labrador over the weekend, with one calling Ward “unendorseable” and “untrustworthy”. Ward led a poll conducted earlier in May by 34-16, but a new Mason-Dixon poll for the Idaho Statesman suggests that Ward has made this race a tossup all on his own doing (5/17-19):
Vaughn Ward (R): 31
Raul Labrador (R): 28
Harley Brown (R): 4
Undecided: 37
(MoE: ±3.9%)
AL-Gov: Davis Leads in Primary, But Dems Trail in General
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/17-19, likely voters, no trendlines):
Democratic Primary:
Artur Davis (D): 41
Ron Sparks (D): 33
Other: 8
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5%)
Republican Primary:
Bradley Byrne (R): 29
Roy Moore (R): 23
Tim James (R): 17
Robert Bentley (R): 9
Bill Johnson (R): 3
Other: 2
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5%)
In my role as Daily Kos contributing editor, I asked Markos to poll this race because of a string of stories (as well as rumors of polls) claiming that Rep. Artur Davis was suffering in his primary against Ag. Comm’r Ron Sparks due to his vote against healthcare reform. Of course, since this is our first poll here, it’s hard to tell if there’s any truth to this narrative without trendlines. On the one hand, perhaps not – Davis does, after all, have an eight-point lead. On the other hand, that doesn’t seem so imposing, given that Davis has outspent Sparks by a large margin. In any event, the numbers are not too far off from a recent Davis internal, which had him up 46-33. Sparks hasn’t released any of his own polls.
As for the GOP race, crazy Ten Commandments judge Roy Moore could make this interesting. If no candidate gets 50% on June 1st, there will be a run-off on July 13th. As you’ll see below, Dems perform best against Moore, who is currently vying for the top spot with ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne. Tim James, son of former governor Fob and notorious for his recent “This is Alabama – we speak English” is also in contention. The internal polling has been all over the map here, with James claiming the lead in one of his own surveys.
General Election:
Artur Davis (D): 31
Bradley Byrne (R): 48
Other: 7
Undecided: 14Artur Davis (D): 38
Roy Moore (R): 43
Other: 9
Undecided: 10Artur Davis (D): 37
Tim James (R): 45
Other: 8
Undecided: 10Ron Sparks (D): 34
Bradley Byrne (R): 45
Other: 9
Undecided: 12Ron Sparks (D): 40
Roy Moore (R): 41
Other: 12
Undecided: 7Ron Sparks (D): 38
Tim James (R): 44
Other: 19
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
The numbers look pretty bad for Dems – but it’s Alabama in a very difficult year, so you can’t say any of this is unexpected. I do think there is something disturbing about these results, though. Sparks and Davis have almost identical statewide favorables – 42-38 and 44-40 respectively. Why, then, does Davis perform consistently worse across the board against all Republicans? Though Davis is African American, he and Sparks do equally well among blacks in head-to-heads with Republicans. But Sparks does consistently better among whites. In any event, Dems should still be rooting for a Roy Moore primary win.
R2K also looked at the sleepy Senate race:
Democratic Primary:
William Barnes (D): 39
Simone De Moore(D): 11
Other: 3
Undecided: 47
(MoE: ±5%)
Republican Primary:
Richard Shelby (R-inc): 64
Clint Moser (R): 14
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±5%)
General Election:
William Barnes (D): 33
Richard Shelby (R-inc): 57
Other: 3
Undecided: 7Simone De Moore(D): 27
Richard Shelby (R-inc): 62
Other: 3
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±4%)
Since we were already in the field, we were curious to know if Sen. Richard Shelby’s teabagging opponent was getting any traction. Answer: no. In fact, Shelby’s the only candidate among these four to have even filed an FEC report – and the 76-year-old Shelby has an amazing $17 million on hand.
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 18
AR-Sen (5/19, likely voters, 4/26 in parens):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 28 (29)
John Boozman (R): 66 (57)Bill Halter (D): 33 (31)
John Boozman (R): 60 (56)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Sen (5/17, likely voters, 4/13 in parens):
Rodney Glassman (D): 28 (32)
John McCain (R-inc): 57 (54)Rodney Glassman (D): 33 (39)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 49 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
John McCain (R-inc): 52 (47)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 40 (42)
(MoE: ±4%)
AZ-Gov (5/17, likely voters, 4/27 in parens):
Terry Goddard (D): 39 (40)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 52 (48)Terry Goddard (D): 40 (38)
Dean Martin (R): 41 (42)Terry Goddard (D): 42 (40)
John Munger (R): 41 (40)Terry Goddard (D): 38 (39)
Buz Mills (R): 45 (43)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Gov (R) (5/17, likely voters, 4/13 in parens):
Jan Brewer (R): 45 (26)
Dean Martin (R): 18 (12)
Buz Mills (R): 18 (18)
John Munger (R): 3 (14)
(MoE: ±4%)
CT-Sen (5/18, likely voters, 5/4 in parens):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 48 (52)
Linda McMahon (R): 45 (39)Richard Blumenthal (D): 50 (55)
Rob Simmons (R): 39 (32)Richard Blumenthal (D): 53 (54)
Peter Schiff (R): 37 (29)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Gov (5/16, likely voters, 4/15 in parens):
Alex Sink (D): 35 (38)
Bill McCollum (R): 43 (45)Alex Sink (D): 41
Rick Scott (R): 40
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (5/16, likely voters, 5/3 in parens):
Kendrick Meek (D): 18 (17)
“Marcus” Rubio (R): 39 (34)
Charlie Crist (I): 31 (38)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (5/19, likely voters):
Jack Conway (D): 34 (38)
Rand Paul (R): 59 (47)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-AL (5/18-19, likely voters, 4/20 in parens):
Earl Pomeroy (D-NPL-inc): 43 (45)
Rick Berg (R): 52 (49)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NY-Sen-B (5/12, likely voters):
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 51
Joe DioGuardi (R): 28Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 51
Bruce Blakeman (R): 31Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 46
David Malpass (R): 27
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Sen (5/19, likely voters, 5/6 in parens):
Joe Sestak (D): 46 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (42)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Gov (5/19, likely voters, 4/15 in parens):
Dan Onorato (D): 36 (36)
Tom Corbett (R): 49 (45)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SC-Gov (D) (5/17, likely voters):
Vincent Sheheen (D): 30
Jim Rex (D): 22
Robert Ford (D): 4
Other: 10
Undecided: 32
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SC-Gov (R) (5/17, likely voters):
Nikki Haley (R): 30
Henry McMaster (R): 19
Gresham Barrett (R): 17
Andre Bauer (R): 12
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3%)
TX-Gov (5/13, likely voters, 4/15 in parens):
Bill White (D): 38 (44)
Rick Perry (R-inc): 51 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CA-Sen, CA-Gov: Dems Look Better, Poizner Surges
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (5/17-19, likely voters, 3/8-10 in parentheses):
Meg Whitman (R): 46 (52)
Steve Poizner (R): 36 (19)
Undecided: 18 (29)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Jerry Brown (D): 46 (45)
Meg Whitman (R): 42 (41)
Undecided: 12 (14)Jerry Brown (D): 47 (48)
Steve Poizner (R): 37 (33)
Undecided: 16 (19)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Tom Campbell (R): 37 (33)
Carly Fiorina (R): 22 (24)
Chuck DeVore (R): 14 (7)
Undecided: 27 (36)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Barbara Boxer (D): 47 (47)
Tom Campbell (R): 40 (43)
Undecided: 13 (10)Barbara Boxer (D): 48 (49)
Carly Fiorina (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 13 (11)Barbara Boxer (D): 47 (49)
Chuck DeVore (R): 38 (39)
Undecided: 13 (12)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Research 2000’s new poll of California has, on the balance, good news for the Democrats. While Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer aren’t putting up dominant numbers, they’re winning by decent margins (as opposed to the last Field Poll, which had them losing). Also good news: Steve Poizner is gaining on Meg Whitman in the GOP gubernatorial primary, as many other polls have shown; he may not get over the top by June 8, but will certainly leave her bloodied and much poorer. In the Senate primary, Tom Campbell, the toughest GOPer for Boxer to face, is putting a little distance between himself and Carly Fiorina (although the big gainer seems to be Tea Party fave Chuck DeVore, still back in third place).
Public Policy Institute of California (pdf) (5/9-16, likely voters, 3/9-16 (pdf) in parentheses):
Meg Whitman (R): 38 (61)
Steve Poizner (R): 29 (11)
Undecided: 31 (25)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Jerry Brown (D): 42 (39)
Meg Whitman (R): 37 (44)
Undecided: 21 (17)Jerry Brown (D): 45 (46)
Steve Poizner (R): 32 (31)
Undecided: 23 (23)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Carly Fiorina (R): 25 (24)
Tom Campbell (R): 23 (23)
Chuck DeVore (R): 16 (8)
Undecided: 36 (44)
(MoE: ±5.0%)Barbara Boxer (D): 46 (43)
Tom Campbell (R): 40 (44)
Undecided: 14 (13)Barbara Boxer (D): 48 (44)
Carly Fiorina (R): 39 (43)
Undecided: 13 (13)Barbara Boxer (D): 50 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)
Undecided: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
PPIC was one of a number of pollsters (like Field) showing Jerry Brown momentarily falling behind Meg Whitman a few months ago, when she was dominating the airwaves, which may even have rubbed off on Barbara Boxer; however, they’ve fallen back to giving the edge to Brown (which probably has more to do with Poizner nuking Whitman than anything Brown is doing, which is, as is his way, very little) and to Boxer. Check out the trendlines on the GOP gubernatorial primary here: they also have Poizner within about 10, down from a margin of about 80 million two months ago.
The attention-grabbing number here is in the GOP Senate primary, as they’re pretty much the only pollster to give an edge to Carly Fiorina (who I think most Dems would prefer to see prevail, her self-funding capacity notwithstanding) instead of Tom Campbell.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/21 (Afternoon Edition)
• CO-Sen: Colorado’s state party conventions are this weekend. Most of the drama is on the Democratic side in the Senate race — actually, even there, it’s not that dramatic, as underdog Andrew Romanoff is expected to prevail at the convention because of his connections to party insiders and his former fellow legislators (and also based on his performance at precinct-level caucuses). Michael Bennet is still expected to meet the 30% threshold that gets him on the ballot without signatures, though, and victory here for Romanoff may be pyrrhic anyway, as the Dem convention winners have fared poorly in the actual primary (ex-Sen. Ken Salazar, for instance, lost the 2004 convention to Mike Miles). The GOP convention should be less interesting because, realizing they have little hope among the revved-up base, establishment-flavored Jane Norton and Tom Wiens aren’t bothering, simply opting to qualify for the primary by petition, so Weld Co. DA and Tea Party fave Ken Buck is expected to romp.
• CT-Sen, CT-Gov: Likewise, the state conventions are scheduled for this weekend in Connecticut as well. Although there’s a competitive battle in the Dem convention on the gubernatorial side between Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy, it seems like all eyes will be on Richard Blumenthal instead, to see if there’s any sort of challenge to him that pops up (other than the minor candidacy of Merrick Alpert). If someone is going to get drafted as a last-minute Blumenthal replacement, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be the newly-freed-up Susan Bysiewicz, who, seemingly caught off-guard by this week’s Supreme Court ruling about her AG eligibility, is now saying she won’t run for anything in 2010. There’s also the Senate face-off in the GOP convention, where ex-Rep. Rob Simmons’ connections and institutional support will be measured up against Linda McMahon’s gigantic wealth; McMahon, for her part, is back to touting her camp’s leak of the Blumenthal story to the NYT after hiding it yesterday.
• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist couldn’t square his support for Elena Kagan today with his opposition to Sonia Sotomayor, telling the Miami Herald that he really couldn’t recall why he opposed Sotomayor. (Um, maybe because he was a Republican back then?) On the plus side, Crist is coming out in favor of the Fair Districts initiatives on the ballot this November, which would smooth out the most pernicious tendencies toward gerrymandering and thus is strongly opposed by the state’s large Republican legislative majorities.
• IL-Sen: Hmmm, I wonder where this ranks on the hierarchy of misstating your military credentials? Rep. Mark Kirk told a gathering last May that “I command the war room in the Pentagon.” Kirk does have a high-profile role in the National Military Command Center, but the war room is run by one-star general, and that’s something that Kirk most definitely is not. Let’s see what the NYT does with this one.
• KY-Sen: After a bad news day yesterday, Rand Paul is continuing to run his mouth, whining about how he was supposed to get a media honeymoon after Tuesday’s Randslide, and also going the full Bachmann against Barack Obama, saying it “sounds Unamerican” for him to be criticizing BP over its massive oil spill because “accidents sometimes happen.” (So that “B” in BP stands for American Petroleum now?) Paul is scheduled for this weekend’s Meet the Press, for what his handlers hope is damage control but may turn into extended hole-digging.
Paul also expounded yesterday on the Americans with Disabilities Act, and he should be lucky the media were too fixated yesterday on his Civil Rights Act statements to provide any fact-checking about his bizarre ignorance of the ADA. Paul’s example of the ADA’s suckage is that it would be reasonable, if an employee used a wheelchair at a two-story business, to just give that person a first-floor office instead of forcing the employer to install an elevator at terrible cost. That’s true; it would be “reasonable” — which is exactly why the ADA asks employers to provide “reasonable accommodation” to disabled employees, a prime example of which might be letting someone work on a lower floor. Removal of architectural barriers is not required if it isn’t “readily achievable” (in other words, easily accomplished, without much difficulty or expense) — which means, grab bars in the bathroom stall or a curb cut, yes, an elevator in an old two-story building, no. Paul’s attack on the ADA seems entirely based on having failed to, as the teabaggers have often urged us to do, “read the bill.”
• NC-Sen: There’s a late-in-the-game shakeup at the Cal Cunningham camp, as his campaign manager and communications director are out the door. Cunningham’s spokesperson says it’s a necessary retooling for the different nature of the runoff, with less focus on the air war and more on grassroots and shoe-leather.
• PA-Sen: Sigh. The DSCC, which isn’t exactly rolling in money these days, spent $540K in coordinated expenditures trying to prop up one-year Democrat Arlen Specter in his 54-46 loss to Joe Sestak in the primary.
• MN-Gov: Margaret Anderson Kelliher reached across the aisle, or at least in the pool of bipartisan budget wonkery, for a running mate, picking John Gunyou. Gunyou was the finance commissioner for Republican Gov. Arne Carlson; he also worked as finance director for Minneapolis mayor Don Fraser and is currently city manager of the suburb of Minnetonka.
• CO-07: The GOP already had its district-level convention in the 7th, as a prelude to the statewide convo. The two main rivals, Lang Sias and Ryan Frazier, both cleared the 30% mark to get on the ballot; the minor candidates didn’t clear the mark and won’t try to get on by petition. Frazier got 49%, while Sias got 43%. Sias’s nomination was seconded by ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo, as well as the 7th’s former Rep. Bob Beauprez.
• CT-04: Thom Hermann, the First Selectman of Easton and a guy with a lot of wealth at his disposal, is making his presence known in the GOP primary field in the 4th, heading into the weekend’s convention. He’s out with an internal poll, via Wilson Research, giving him a large lead over presumed frontrunner state Sen. Dan Debicella among those primary voters who’ve decided. It’s reported in a strange, slightly deceptive way, though: he has a 44-25 lead over Debicella among those who’ve decided, but only 36% have decided! (So by my calculations, it’s more like a 16-9 lead in reality?)
• FL-02: Dem Rep. Allen Boyd seems to be taking nothing for granted this year. He’s already up with his second TV ad against his underfunded primary opponent, state Sen. Al Lawson, this time hitting Lawson for votes to cut back funding for healthcare and construction jobs. (J)
• HI-01: We’re up to 48% of all ballots having been returned in the 1st, with tomorrow being the deadline in the all-mail-in special election to replace Neil Abercrombie (152K out of 317K).
• ID-02: I have no idea what this is about, but I thought I’d put it out there, as it’s one of the weirdest IEs we’ve seen in a while. Not only did someone plunk down $8K for polling in the 2nd, one of the most reliably Republican top-to-bottom districts anywhere where Rep. Mike Simpson only ever faces token opposition, but the money’s from the American Dental Association. Making sure Idahoans are brushing properly?
• IN-03: State Sen. Marlin Stutzman made it official today: he’s running in the special election for the seat just vacated by Rep. Mark Souder. Having performed well in the Senate primary (and having had a path cleared for him by Mike Pence’s lowering of the boom on Souder), he looks like the one to beat here.
• PA-07: Former local TV news anchor Dawn Stensland has decided to forego a vaguely-threatened independent run in the 7th. That leaves it a one-on-one battle between Dem Bryan Lentz and GOPer Pat Meehan.
• PA-12: The GOP seems to have settled on its preferred explanation for trying to spin away its underwhelming performance in the special election in the 12th, via their polling guru Gene Ulm. It’s all Ed Rendell’s fault, for scheduling it on the same day as the Senate primary, causing all those Joe Sestak supporters (of which there were many in that corner in Pennsylvania) to come out of the woodwork and vote in the 12th while they were at it.
• Unions: Now that’s a lot of lettuce. Two major unions are promising to spend almost $100 million together to preserve Democratic majorities this fall. The AFSCME is promising $50 million and the SEIU is planning $44 million.
• Enthusiasm Gap: This is something I’ve often suspected, but never felt like bringing up because the numbers weren’t there to prove the point (and also perhaps because saying so would put me at odds with the general netroots orthodoxy): the Democratic “enthusiasm gap” isn’t so much borne out of dissatisfaction with the insufficient aggressiveness of the Obama administration or the slow pace of getting watered-down legislation out of Congress as much as it’s borne out of complacency. In other words, there’s the sense by casual/irregular/low-information Dem voters that they did their job in 2008, got the country back on track, things are slowly improving, and because they aren’t angry anymore they don’t need to keep following up. PPP backs this up: among those “somewhat excited ” or “not very excited” about voting in November, Obama’s approval is a higher-than-average 58/35, and their supports for the health care bill is also a higher-than-average 50/38.
NV-Sen: Angle Takes the Lead
Public Policy Polling for Patriot Majority (5/12-16, likely voters):
Sharron Angle (R): 29
Sue Lowden (R): 26
Danny Tarkanian (R): 24
Chad Christensen (R): 5
John Chachas (R): 5
(MoE: ±3.8%)
Heh. Patriot Majority, a liberal PAC with ties to Harry Reid, has plopped down some scrilla to check the pulse of Sue Lowden’s campaign. (Patriot Majority was last seen putting out TV ads against Lowden’s chickencare scheme.) The poll gives further credence to the narrative that Angle is surging at Lowden’s expense, especially on the heels of the Club For Growth’s announcement that they will put their financial muscle behind Angle. (Also recall that a recent Mason-Dixon poll only had Lowden ahead of Angle by 30-25.)
Angle, an ex-state Assemblywoman, is a true movement conservative — one that Democrats thought they could’ve beat had she won the GOP nomination against Dean Heller in Nevada’s 2nd CD back in 2006. I’m not sure which candidate Harry Reid would prefer to take on: the Chicken Lady or the Growther.
MN-Gov: Dayton Leads Primary, General
Minnesota Public Radio/Humphrey Institute (5/13-16, adults):
Mark Dayton (DFL): 35
Tom Emmer (R): 31
Tom Horner (IP): 8
Undecided/Other: 25Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 29
Tom Emmer (R): 31
Tom Horner (IP): 10
Undecided/Other: 30Matt Entenza (DFL): 28
Tom Emmer (R): 32
Tom Horner (IP): 11
Undecided/Other: 29
(MoE: ±5.8%)
DFL primary:
Mark Dayton (DFL): 38
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL): 28
Matt Entenza (DFL): 6
Undecided/Other: 28
(MoE: “higher than” ±5.8%)
MPR and the wonks at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs have teamed up for the first public poll of the Democratic gubernatorial primary since state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher won the DFL endorsement in late April. Their results give ex-Sen. Mark Dayton a reason to smile, as he’s coming out on top in the DFL primary, and is the only Democrat to lead Tom Emmer in the general election. Bear in mind, though, that MPR didn’t screen for likely voters, and their less than forthcoming attitude towards the primary sample’s margin of error suggests that the DFL-only sample size may be smaller than we’d see from other pollsters.