Tag: Polls

Rasmussen (1/6, likely voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 42

Scott McInnis (R): 45

Some other: 5

Don’t know: 8

John (or Ken?) Salazar (D): 41

Scott McInnis (R): 47

Some other: 2

Don’t know: 9

Andrew Romanoff (D): 37

Scott McInnis (R): 47

Some other: 6

Don’t know: 11

(MoE: ±4%)

Rasmussen strikes quickly to check out potential matchups between Republican ex-Rep. Scott McInnis and possible Democratic candidates, now that Gov. Bill Ritter has decided not to run for re-election. They find that Denver mayor John Hickenlooper fares the best of the three options, while former House speaker (and current Senate primary candidate, where he’s making no headway against the eminently beatable Michael Bennet) Andrew Romanoff does the worst.

You may notice the very strange configuration of John (or Ken?) Salazar above. That’s because, depending on where you look, Rasmussen is listing both names. Their article says Ken (the Interior Sec. and former Senator), which would make more sense, as his interest in the race has been loud and public, but the toplines page and the Pollster.com writeup say John (the CO-03 Rep.), which would make much less sense, as he not only hasn’t expressed interest in the race but has been speaking on his brother’s behalf. Rasmussen Reports? You decide.

RaceTracker: CO-Gov

Rasmussen (1/5, likely voters, 12/1 in parens):

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Gilbert Baker (R): 51 (46)

Undecided: 7 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)

Curtis Coleman (R): 48 (44)

Undecided: 9 (9)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 38 (40)

Tom Cox (R): 48 (44)

Undecided: 9 (10)

Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 39 (39)

Kim Hendren (R): 47 (46)

Undecided: 10 (9)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Markos has already jumped upon this poll, trying to direct Lincoln’s attention to the possibility of retirement. DavidNYC made a persuasive case that Democrats would be better off with Lt. Gov. Bill Halter running in Lincoln’s place, and PPP will go into the field sometime during the next few weeks to test “alternatives” to Lincoln. (They’ll also test alternatives to Harry Reid and Michael Bennet, but that’s a discussion for another thread.)

RaceTracker: AR-Sen

Public Policy Polling (1/4-5, registered voters):

Richard Blumenthal (D): 59

Rob Simmons (R): 28

Richard Blumenthal (D): 60

Linda McMahon (R): 28

Richard Blumenthal (D): 63

Peter Schiff (R): 23

(MoE: ±4.3%)

We got some tweets yesterday from PPP that they found Democratic AG Richard Blumenthal leading Republican opposition in the Connecticut Senate race by “uber-safe” margins. It seems like the message from that poll was received, as in the intervening day, Chris Dodd announced his retirement, and Blumenthal finally got took the plunge and is running for the open seat. With everyone wondering about the ramifications of this stunning swap, this has to be one of the most eagerly awaited polls I’ve seen.

The numbers are, indeed, stunning. Blumenthal routs his Republican opposition, with the closest race against ex-Rep. Rob Simmons a whopping 31-point margin. Blumenthal’s favorables are 59/19, including 71% favorable among Dems, 60% among indies, and even a 37/35 favorable among Republicans.

This contrasts with Chris Dodd’s numbers: losing 44-40 to Simmons, tying Linda McMahon at 43-43, and beating Peter Schiff 44-37. While that’s actually a little better than some other recent polls had shown, it still indicates pretty clearly why he felt it was time to step aside. PPP also tested Rep. Chris Murphy, who seemed like a likely Plan C but seems highly unlikely to enter now that Blumenthal is already in. Murphy beats Simmons 42-35, McMahon 43-36, and Schiff 44-28: again, indicating that the problem was specific to Dodd (who clocked in with a pitiable 29/57 approval), and not with Connecticut suddenly turning against Democrats.

With this, we’re moving the race rating to Lean Democratic. Why only Lean D? (This may actually disappoint many of our salivating fans.) Our rationale is that Blumenthal is untested in terms of running for federal office, with potentially “mile wide, inch deep” support that comes with name rec from decades as the state’s AG that may dissipate somewhat in a heated election, especially one in an unfavorable year for Democrats. However, we’re doing so out of an abundance of caution, and expect to move this rating further in the Democratic direction if additional polls are in the same range.

RaceTracker Wiki: CT-Sen

Rasmussen (1/4, likely voters):

Martha Coakley (D): 50

Scott Brown (R): 41

Some other: 1

Not sure: 7

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen Reports sees a nine-point race in the special election contest between Democratic AG Martha Coakley and Republican state Sen. Scott Brown to replace Ted Kennedy. At first glance, that may seem closer than expected, since people are generally used to Democrats winning federal races in Massachusetts with at least 65% of the vote. Frankly, I’m not especially surprised, though, given that a) it’s Rasmussen, whose likely voter model seems tailored to project the Dems’ worst case scenario, b) there were pervasive rumors yesterday of an unreleased private poll that had a Coakley lead of 50-39, and c) this is the first Senate race in, well, more than a decade where the Republicans have bothered fielding an appealing, somewhat-well-known candidate instead of the usual unknown sacrificial lamb. Recall that while Ted Kennedy and John Kerry won their last elections against nobodies 69-31 and 66-31, respectively, Kennedy beat Mitt Romney 58-41 in 1994 and Kerry beat William Weld 52-45 in 1996. If Rasmussen’s numbers project out to, say, a 54-45 Coakley win, then, well, that certainly fits within the scope of those latter races.

Needless to say, this poll has led to a fair amount of press hyperventilating today, wondering if Brown could somehow pull it off. Chris Cillizza remains highly skeptical, saying that Coakley’s name rec and fundraising advantages are “close to determinative.” Coakley was, as of Nov. 18, sitting on $1.9 million (after raising $4.2 million) compared to Brown’s $258K, which will certainly set the tempo for the last few weeks’ worth of TV advertising, especially since Brown seems unlikely to receive any NRSC financial help (which would have arrived long ago if they had the data to support the idea that there was a competitive race here). Cillizza also cites Democratic sources saying that their own polling hasn’t seen Brown emerge out of the mid-30s.

Nate Silver is also skeptical, if mostly of Rasmussen’s sample composition; it’s heavy on conservatives, compared with exit polls, and light on registered independents, who make up a big chunk of the Massachusetts electorate. In the end, he throws up his hands, though, saying that in a super-low-turnout election (as this one is poised to be), almost anything is possible, from a Coakley landslide to a nailbiter.

If you ask me, this race is shaping up to be a little reminiscent of the MA-05 special election a few years back, where Niki Tsongas beat Jim Ogonowski by a margin in the high single digits. Tsongas didn’t excite anyone and coasted into the general, Ogonowski had his area’s few Republicans revved up and lots of energy on the ground, there was a late tizzy as Dems realized late in the game that this could be close, the district’s Dem lean still pulled it out… and in the end, Dems seemed briefly chastened by the unnecessarily close margin in such a blue district but, having banked the win, didn’t seem to learn much from the experience. While Massachusetts is even bluer as a whole than the suburban 5th, 2010 is also a less Dem-friendly year than 2007.

RaceTracker Wiki: MA-Sen

• KY-Sen: I’ve never heard of Bill Johnson before, but bringing six figures to the table is bound to gain some attention. The western Kentucky businessman, who’s running in the Republican Senate primary, said he’s loaning himself $250,000 to try and garner some notice in the big-$ primary between Trey Grayson and Rand Paul.

• LA-Sen: I never thought I’d see the day when urea formaldehyde would become a campaign issue, but Democrats are hoping to use it against David Vitter in the Bayou State. Vitter (who has the backs of Louisiana’s large chemical industry) has been placing a hold on a new EPA administrator’s nomination, partly over concerns that the EPA will more heavily regulate formaldehyde. Unfortunately for Vitter, more than 34,000 Louisiana residents have first-hand experience with urea formaldehyde, outgassing from the paneling of their FEMA-provided post-Katrina trailers.

• MA-Sen: Republican State Sen. Scott Brown has an uphill fight in this month’s special election to overcome the state’s Dem lean and perhaps sentimental desires to keep Ted Kennedy’s seat in Democratic hands. Still, he got an endorsement from the state’s most popular conservative: Red Sox great Curt Schilling.

• NH-Sen: Salt shaker at the ready? ARG has a new poll out of general election matchups in the New Hampshire Senate race, showing a single-digit edge for Republican AG Kelly Ayotte over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes, 43-36 (their last poll, from September, also gave Ayotte a 7-pt edge). They also poll Hodes against conservative upstart Ovide Lamontagne for the first time, and, in a bit of a head-scratcher, find a similar margin for the less-known and, one would think, less electable Lamontagne, who leads Hodes 37-31.

• MI-Gov: Here’s a Rasmussen poll that slipped our notice over the holidays; as one might expect, Santa Rasmussen had a big lump of coal for John Cherry’s stocking. All three Republicans lead the Democratic Lt. Governor, as other pollsters generally find, but Rasmussen still manages to depart from the other pollsters’ findings: AG Mike Cox, who has generally polled the best against Cherry, here has the smallest edge over him (only 39-34), while loudmouthed right-wing Rep. Pete Hoekstra has the biggest edge (46-32). (This poll was taken before Hoekstra’s grandstanding over the attempted plane bombing, which would serve to raise his name rec outside his western Michigan home turf.) Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard leads Cherry 42-32. One hope for Cherry, though, is that, in terms of favorables, he still has higher unknowns than any of the Republicans, giving him room to grow.

• RI-Gov: Jan. 4 has been penciled in as the official launch date for Lincoln Chafee’s independent campaign for Rhode Island for a while now. With it comes news that (against a backdrop of mediocre fundraising so far) he’ll be dipping into the family fortune to propel his race; he just lent his campaign another $200K after starting it off with a previous $110K. Compared with Dem state Treasurer Frank Caprio’s $1.5 million, Chafee has a lot of ground to make up. Meanwhile, Republicans would still like a candidate… any candidate.

• AL-05: Looks like recent turncoat Parker Griffith is having a busy day today, answering his own phones and making his own coffee. Almost his entire staff resigned en masse today, unwilling to join him on his foray into the Republican fold.

• CA-19: Another sort-of-well-known Republican is scoping out the new open seat in the 19th: former SoS, former Assembly minority leader, and 2004 Senatorial loser Bill Jones is considering the race. Fresno city councilor Larry Westerlund is also looking at the race, which already has state Sen. Jeff Denham and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson in the GOP field… and, as of this afternoon, former CA-11 Rep. Dick Pombo. (I wonder if Tom McClintock is interested in running here? He’s gotta be feeling restless again, having represented CA-04 for a full year now.)

• MN-01, MN-02, MN-03: We might actually wind up with a Democratic former elected official running in John Kline’s 2nd but not in the theoretically more-vulnerable 3rd next door. Former state Rep. Shelly Madore of Apple Valley (who was defeated by a Republican in 2008) has decided to get into the race in Minneapolis’s southern suburbs. (H/t Andrew.) Speaking of the 3rd, Democratic challenger Maureen Hackett is the first to hit the airwaves with a new radio spot; she faces a primary fight with state PTA president Jim Meffert, and the winner takes on freshman Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen. Finally, as expected, it only took Republican ex-state Rep. Allen Quist a few weeks to start bringing the crazy over in the 1st, as seen in recent comments that beating “radical” Democrats in Washington is a bigger battle than beating terrorism.

• NY-20, NY-Comptroller: Republican John Faso (the former Assembly minority leader and 2006 gubernatorial loser) was getting touted for a number of different races: for a run for Comptroller, against Rep. Scott Murphy in the 20th, or maybe even for NY-Sen-B if no other Kirsten Gillibrand challenger stepped up. It looks like he won’t be doing any of those things, saying it’s “doubtful” he’ll run for anything this year. State party chair Ed Cox is pushing Emil Henry Jr. for the GOP’s Comptroller slot now (Henry, a former Lehman Bros. exec, had earlier been trying to generate some interest for a gubernatorial run, apparently to little avail).

• PA-04: Insiders are leaking that former W.D. Pa. US Attorney (and loyal Bushie) Mary Beth Buchanan is increasingly likely to run against Rep. Jason Altmire this year, although the word is she’ll make her decision “soon.” On the flipside, this may mean the likelihood of state House minority whip Mike Turzai running for the GOP is going down.

• TN-08: Jackson-area physician Ron Kirkland will be joining the GOP field, now that this seat is a more tempting target with the retirement of long-time Democratic Rep. John Tanner. Kirkland joins “farmer” (or agribusiness kingpin, if you prefer)/gospel singer Stephen Fincher, who’s already off to a big fundraising start.

• TX-10: With a nasty hole in the lineup looming with the departure of promising candidate Jack McDonald, here’s a big-time save by veteran Ted Ankrum, who’ll file to take McDonald’s place in the 10th. Ankrum, you might recall, was our 2006 nominee in the 10th, and his strong performance with almost no funding is what drew a lot of Dem attention to the potential winnability of this rapidly-bluening seat. (Speaking of filing, the filing deadline in Texas is today. Primaries are soon, too – March 2nd, with potential run-offs on April 13th. Check out SSP’s full sortable primary calendar, if you haven’t before.)

• GA-SoS: With current Secretary of State Karen Handel resigning midterm in order to pursue her gubernatorial bid, Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue got the chance to hand-pick a successor. 38-year-old state Rep. Jim Cole, a member of the House’s leadership, will serve out the remaining year of her term and then run for a full term in 2010. (UPDATE: Or not. Cole has already turned down Perdue’s offer; former state Sen. Brian Kemp now sounds likely to be offered the job. H/t RuralDem.)

• Mayors: Lt. Gov Mitch Landrieu’s path to be the next mayor of New Orleans looks even easier now. His main opposition, state Sen. Ed Murray, opted to drop out, acknowledging that he didn’t want to suffer through an expensive and racially-divisive (Murray is African-American) campaign.

• NRCC: Looks like we’re not the only ones taking notice of the NRCC’s cash-on-hand problems, as the legacy media start to take notice: Politico observes that right now the NRCC has enough money to fund about one big-name House race, not the dozens they’re trying to put into play with various recruiting successes.

• RNC: Reid Wilson has an interesting catch: the RNC is sending money ($20K) to the local party in the Northern Mariana Islands (popu. 86,000), which, of course, don’t have a voting member of the House or any electoral votes. It looks like it may be a little payback from Michael Steele, who owes his chairmanship to votes from the NMI and other insular territories.

• Polltopia: Politico also belatedly picks up on another favorite theme in the liberal blogosphere: what the hell is up with Rasmussen’s numbers? Nate Silver judiciously examined the issue too, over the weekend, pointing out that Rasmussen’s well-documented “house effects” aren’t necessarily indicative of bias per se. Rasmussen’s defenders, of course, will point to Nate’s ratings of Rasmussen’s accuracy, which are high; fitting, as their numbers do tend to converge with reality in a race’s final weeks (as we saw last November in NJ and VA). Still, one question wasn’t raised in either of these pieces over the weekend: how to hold Rasmussen to account for showing out-of-whack numbers long before the election, before they start to fall in line with everyone else (and when they, by virtue of Rasmussen’s frequent polling, can play a large role in shaping the conventional wisdom about who’s up and who’s down)?

• Maps: A denizen of the forums at Dave Leip’s site has put together an even better set of maps of presidential election results by county, dating back to 1840. (H/t metstotop333.)(D)

• Redistricting: A reminder – if you post an entry in the redistricting contest, please e-mail your .DRF.XML file to jeffmd [at] swingstateproject [dot] com. (Instructions for finding your file are here.) This will make it a lot easier for Jeff to judge entries. And the deadline to submit your entry is fast approaching – Sunday, January 10th at midnight Eastern time. (D)

Also, on the redistricting front, Politics Magazine has a lengthy piece on Democrats’ efforts to avoid getting out-hustled by the GOP in both congressional and state-level redistricting. Hint to Bill Burke’s Foundation for the Future and Brian Smoot’s Democratic Redistricting Trust: Reach out to the redistricting geeks here at the Swing State Project. We’re a great untapped resource. One interesting note: This is the first time since the passage of the Voting Rights Act that the White House (and thus the Department of Justice) will be in Democratic hands during the start-to-finish redistricting process. (D)

• Census: The Census Bureau is rolling out a $340 million ad blitz over the next few months to make sure that everyone knows about the Census and that they need to participate. The rollout includes two ads (directed by Christopher Guest and starring Ed Begley Jr., which ought to get the right-wingers a-foamin’ at the mouth) during the Super Bowl, but also $80 million in ad outreach to non-English-speaking populations. Talking Points Memo also has a neat observation about Rep. Michele Bachmann, once the Census’s greatest foe but who’s been surprisingly quiet in her criticisms of it lately: she may need to rely on huge Census turnout by Minnesotans to keep Minnesota at 8 seats, and thus, keep her own seat (the likeliest target for elimination if the state needs to drop to 7 and Dems exclusively control the process).  

Public Policy Polling (12/18-21, registered voters, 4/2-3 in parens):

Jack Conway (D): 33 (37)

Trey Grayson (R): 40 (33)

Jack Conway (D): 36

Rand Paul (R): 42

Dan Mongiardo (D): 35 (36)

Trey Grayson (R): 44 (40)

Dan Mongiardo (D): 36

Rand Paul (R): 42

(MoE: ±2.8%)

There are a few takeways from this: First, all of these candidates are fairly unknown and undefined. Conway and Grayson have “Not Sure” numbers of 63% and 64%, respectively, in their favorability scores. The circus act that is Rand Paul, on the other hand, has left more of an impression than either of these statewide-elected officials, with only 51% of the electorate being unfamiliar with him. The best known of this lot, Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, has less room for growth: only 38% are unfamiliar with him, while his favorables are underwater at 25-37 (Conway, Grayson, and Paul all have close to net neutral favorable ratings). I’m still kind of surprised that Mongiardo stayed in the primary after a string of profanity-laced tirades against Gov. Steve Beshear were released on tape, but the primary head-to-heads released yesterday suggest that he still has shot at the pie.

Next, speaking only for myself, I’m not optimistic about this race if Grayson can squeak through the primary. Now, perhaps the national environment will improve enough to give a guy like Conway an easier shot in such a race, but I’m not going to hold my breath. However, if Paul can ride a wave of his own freaknut base and forge an alliance with the teabag crowd in the GOP primary, I like the general election a lot better. As we’ve mentioned many times in the past, Paul represents a weirder strain of conservatism, one that isn’t exactly a perfect fit for a mainstream Kentucky electorate. It’s possible that a candidate cut from his cloth could get swept into office if the national trends are that bad, but his libertarian views will be vulnerable against a competently-run Democratic campaign in a general election. It should be a very fun race to watch.

• CT-Sen: In an effort to calm fears that he’s facing an unwinnable path to re-election, Chris Dodd’s campaign released an internal poll that’s… well… pretty fugly. The GQR poll has ex-Rep. Chris Simmons leading by 51-46, while Dodd and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon are tied at 46% each. McMahon, for her part, released an internal poll showing her leading Simmons by two in the Republican primary. Mmmm… cat fud.

• FL-Sen: Big trouble in South Florida for Charlie Crist? GOP Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart have suddenly and unilaterally rescinded their endorsements of Crist’s senatorial campaign. The Diaz-Balarts offered no explanation as to why they’re leaving Crist to hang, but Lincoln offered this cryptic elaboration: Crist “left us no alternative and he knows why.” Is a Marco Rubio endorsement forthcoming?

• GA-Gov: Republican SoS Karen Handel, who is very much the underdog in the GOP primary, announced today that she will be resigning from her office to concentrate on her gubernatorial bid. This will allow her to raise money during the legislative session — something her opponents currently holding political office will not be able to do.

• IA-Gov: The Terry Branstad comeback express keeps chugging along — and it picked up another passenger today, as state Sen. Jerry Behn dropped out of the gubernatorial race today and handed Branstad his endorsement.

• RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee will make a “major announcement” sometime after New Year’s Day, presumably to make his candidacy for Rhode Island Governor official.

• SC-Gov: InsiderAdvantage takes a look at the Dem and GOP primary fields, and finds some pretty wide-open contests. For the Republicans, the McCain-backed state AG Henry McMaster and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer are tied at 22%, with Sanford protege Nikki Haley at 13%, and the House of Representative’s very own “Some Dude”, Gresham Barrett, lagging behind at 9%. For the Dems, state Superintendent Jim Rex leads with 21% to lobbyist Dwight Drake’s 15%. State Sen. Vince Sheheen has 8%.

• CA-20: Dem Rep. Jim Costa may be facing a legitimate challenger next year… but one whom he already beat. Term-limited state Sen. Roy Ashburn, who lost an open seat race to Costa in 2004 by 7%, said he’s considering running for Congress again after ruling it out earlier. Local Republicans don’t sound too thrilled, though, pointing out Ashburn’s less than completely brain-dead record on opposing tax hikes.

• PA-10: Sophomore Dem Rep. Chris Carney has had a charmed start to his second term up until this point, managing to avoid any serious Republican competition from emerging. However, that streak has ended in recent weeks with the interest of state Rep. Mike Peifer and ex-US Attorney Tom Marino in the race. On the bright side, Peifer announced yesterday that he won’t be running, after all, but can we read that as a tea leaf that Marino is pretty serious about making this candidacy happen?

• PA-19: Here’s another reason why GOP Rep. Todd Platts should hope that he lands the job as head of the GAO: he’s now facing a primary challenge from freedom-loving businessman Mike Smeltzer. Maybe Platts would rather just retire than be forced to defend his Main Street Partnership-style voting record?

• SC-05: Republicans made their list, but now they better check it twice. The office of veteran Dem Rep. John Spratt confirmed yesterday that Spratt will indeed run for another term next year in spite of Republican-fueled speculation that he was looking for the exits.

• Pollsters & Scoundrels: Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal offers a wrap-up of the strange, strange saga of Strategic Vision LLC.

• Approvals: Seeking approval? Don’t look at me — go talk to SUSA; they’ve just released a ton of approval ratings for Senators and Governors across the nation. On your station.

Public Policy Polling (12/17-20, registered voters):

Tarryl Clark (D): 37

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 55

Undecided: 8

Maureen Reed (D): 37

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Clark is generally considered to be a pretty solid recruit for Team Blue, but this looks like a pretty challenging environment in which to topple a Republican incumbent — even one as touched in the head as Bachmann. More, from Jensen:

53% of Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she’s doing in Congress to 41% who disapprove. Her numbers certainly reflect her polarizing nature, with 86% of Republicans giving her good marks and 83% of Democrats saying they don’t like her performance. But in a GOP leaning district and with a 51% approval from independents it all adds up to a pretty solid standing.

RaceTracker Wiki: MN-06

(Update: An earlier version of this post mistakenly stated that Clark was the DCCC’s preferred candidate.)

Public Policy Polling (12/18-21, likely voters):

Rand Paul (R): 44

Trey Grayson (R): 25

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That’s an absolutely stunning lead for Paul, and some major egg-on-face for Mitch McConnell and the NRSC brain trust. We haven’t seen a lot of public polling of the GOP primary, but warning signs emerged in August for Grayson, Kentucky’s Secretary of State, when SurveyUSA released a poll showing him leading Paul by only 37-26. Research 2000 followed that up a couple of weeks later with a 40-25 Grayson lead. Just last month, SUSA followed up on the race and found that Paul had actually eked into a narrow 35-32 lead. Given the amount of heat that Grayson has been directing Paul’s way in the past week over his ex-campaign spokesman’s questionable association with white supremacists on MySpace, you know that Grayson realizes that he’ll need to fight his way out of this one in a desperate fashion.

Now, you might think that a Paul primary win would be good news for Democrats, but check out what PPP is teasing about the still-to-be-released general election numbers:

the Kentucky general election numbers we’ll release Wednesday show Rand Paul doing only one point worse than Trey Grayson against Jack Conway and three points worse against Dan Mongiardo.

That said, Paul definitely represents a weirder strain of Republican conservatism that could end up being a liability in a general election. His questionable inner circle is one thing, but consider also Ron Paul’s non-position on 9/11 Trutherism. As an outsider, Paul is riding on a high against the establishment’s hand-picked candidate, but his freak-wing politics will be ripe for clobbering if he makes it through a primary.

And for the Democrats…

Jack Conway (D): 37

Dan Mongiardo (D): 33

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±4.2%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen of Conway leading Mongiardo all year. SUSA gave Mongiardo an 11-point lead in November (up from 8 in August), while R2K found Conway trailing by 37-30 in September. In any case, Mongiardo enjoys broader name recognition, so Conway has some room for growth here.

Rasmussen Reports (12/20, likely voters):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39

Jim Ryan (R): 46

Dan Hynes (D): 42

Jim Ryan (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.5%)

You may be feeling a sense of déjà vu. Didn’t Rasmussen poll this race as recently as last week? Why yes, they did, but they happened to whiff that poll’s release by forgetting to test the name of former state AG Jim Ryan, who at this point is probably the front-runner for the GOP nomination. So here’s a do-over, with some unsurprisingly good results for the GOP.

And then there’s North Dakota (12/17, likely voters):

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 36

John Hoeven (R): 58

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 52

Duane Sand (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Before now, we had seen exactly two polls of the hypothetical Dorgan v. Hoeven clash of the titans. In February, Research 2000 put out a poll showing Dorgan thumping Hoeven by 57-35 spread, while an NRSC internal poll released from July in the hopes of enticing Hoeven into the race had those numbers flipped at 53-36 in the GOP’s favor. I’m inclined to believe that Dorgan would have a difficult time beating Hoeven — if he ever decided to get off the pot and commit to running — but I’m not sure if the spread is what Rasmussen thinks it is. I have to suspect that Dorgan is ahead of a sadsack like Duane Sand by a little more than 15 points, for instance.