Tag: OH-01

In Ohio, the question is:

Are you better off than you were eight years ago?

Ohio is one of the great masterworks of gerrymandering, quietly piling up undue power for the GOP on a scale with few others.

If Ohio is a pinnacle of gerrymandering, OH-01 and OH-02 are the piece de la resistance, in that they take what ought to be an urban Democratic stronghold, and instead, by banking on lingering “good ole boy” voting trends among low income voters and by CAREFULLY slicing up Cinci and its burbs: Viólá!! They get control of BOTH OH-01 AND OH-02 when they should, at best, control one or the other.

As long as the GOP has an incumbent that is anything better than “still breathing” and not under federal indictment, both Districts should be walk overs.

But that’s where “Mean Jean” Schmidt enters –stage far, far right. The evangelical quasi-cons within the GOP thought that this was their district to elect a real wing-bat. And in 2004 in Ohio, we hit a real low point.

But then in 2006, the tide turned in Ohio. And Foul Mouth Evil Mean Jean, just SQUEEKED past Wulsin.

Unfortunately,this year, Wulsin faced a primary challenge from a candidate who was a wealthy and self funded recent GOP convert. He basically tried to “swiftboat” Wulsin with accusations against Vic that have been found to be baseless.

But for whatever reason, this rematch just doesn’t seem to be going anywhere. Polls show absolutely conflicting numbers on the OH-02 race. Having lived through a recent high target House race, I think people might be burned out. On our side, we’re fired up about Obama, but if you’re not, the alternative they’re stuck with is an OLD GEEZER, complete with drug addicted trophy wife (who inherited a BUNDLE.)

And there are some demographics where that just doesn’t fly. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the Obama candidacy will boost the Cinci area AA vote. The big question is “By how much?” And what effect has more open and accessible voting had on low income voters spread across OH-01 and OH-02 and white ethnic groups? If there is an overall increase in AA and/or low income voters (especially young ones) are they connecting with Driehaus and/or Wulsin? What really sends the poll numbers swinging is statical changes in the definition of “likely voter.”

Translated: the ground game will be everything. There’s significant undecideds and lots of volatility.

I think that the deciding factor will be old fashioned door-to-door retail politics among the area’s poor neighborhoods, across all ethnic groups. There could be potentially a LOT of likely Obama voters if the door to door campaign is effective.

If there is even a modest drop off in lock step evangelical tin foil hat support for the GOP, then, combined with the stellar work of new Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, that could result in a 3-5 point swing in net voting JUST in changes within the pool of voters.

“O’Biden” could be just the ticket to have real coattails in some areas.

Palin was created to lock-in the very culturally conservative voters that were ALREADY likely to vote GOP. They may grouse during primary season, but come the general election, nothing will dissuade some of these people from voting GOP. But you have to contrast that with the Shrub’s ‘all time ever’ low poll numbers. There’s a friction between conservative voting tendencies vs. a guy who is pretty much REVILED throughout the country.

What’s an incumbent Congresscritter’s best campaign schtick? Why landing Air Force One, of course. But not this year. Oh, no. That’s the LAST thing that incumbent GOP Reps want this year is to see the Shrub show his face… unless of course, it’s an invitation only, thousand dollar a plate dinner.

If the fortunes of the GOP continue to slide toward oblivion (Think: Hoover) And if the Big Mo’ swings our way, convincing low income white male voters to go ahead and vote O’Bama, the GOP is sunk and we MIGHT flip anywhere from three to six seats in Ohio. In order: Boccieri, Kilroy, Driehaus, Wulsin or O’Niell, and Neuhardt.

Somehow, we need to distribute the video and audio of Ralph Stanley endorsing Obama to radio, TV stations and local blogs in Southern Ohio. If I were Driehaus, I would be working FEVERISHLY to get Ralph into the District to appear at a rally.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/30-10/1, likely voters):

Steve Driehaus (D): 46

Steve Chabot (R-inc): 44

Other: 4

(MoE: ±5%)

Very nice numbers for Driehaus; in fact, they’re the mirror image of a recent SurveyUSA poll showing Chabot up by two. One key difference between R2K’s poll and SUSA is their estimation of the African-American vote: SUSA pegged black turnout at 28%, while R2K places it at 30%. This district is 28% black, so that number may or may not be on the optimistic side.

Both polls find Chabot taking about 20% of the African-American vote — a pretty high score for a Republican in this day and age, but also one that could potentially come down as the DCCC moves into full bombardment mode.

In any event, an incumbent sitting in the mid-40s in a year like this is in a dangerous place. It’s no small wonder that the NRCC is spending $2.2 million on this race and MI-07 in an effort to hold the line.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by a 53-39 margin in this district.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

Over the past couple of days, SSP has shifted its ratings of six competitive races. Here’s a roundup of what we did:

FL-21 (L. Diaz Balart): Lean Republican to Tossup

“Clash of the Titans”.

Those are the words that have been invariably used to describe this hotly-anticipated match-up between GOP Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The mud is beginning to fly fast and furiously, which is to be expected from these two highly-seasoned pols with a long history of personal animus and tension.

Yes, Martinez has baggage from legal troubles in the ’90s, but he’s also a larger than life figure in his hometown of Hialeah, and has an intensely loyal following in that GOP stronghold — as evidenced by many recent endorsements from prominent local Republicans.

The publicly-released polling of this race has been very close: Diaz-Balart led by four points in a June Bendixen poll, and SUSA actually found Martinez leading by two in August. A recent Carlos McDonald poll gives Diaz-Balart a five-point edge, but that’s too close for an incumbent’s comfort. This one is shaping up to be close.

IL-10 (Kirk): Lean Republican to Tossup

Of all the races that have been in SSP’s “Lean Republican” column since March, this one’s addition to the Tossup pile always seemed like an inevitable outcome — it was just a matter of timing.

Two recently-released polls — one from the DCCC and the other from R2K/DailyKos — give GOP Rep. Mark Kirk a slight edge here, but both polls have the incumbent dangerously below 50%, leaving him vulnerable to a late Seals surge in a D+3 district that is set to deliver a big margin for Barack Obama in November. On top of it all, a new SurveyUSA poll is showing Seals leading by 52-44. While it’s possible that that result is overstating things a bit, if there’s one thing we’ve learned in the past few years, it’s that Republicans are getting increasingly poorer at holding Dem-tilting districts. After all, let’s not forget that Seals, a very talented candidate, outperformed his final internal poll during his 2006 race against Kirk by a full 15 points.

While Kirk has a wrongly-perceived “moderate” profile working in his favor, Seals is deftly using Kirk’s past criticism of Obama to his advantage. This race is a tossup.

NJ-03 (Open): Lean Democratic to Tossup

While Democrat John Adler has been a fundraising machine in his race for the open seat of retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton, he has yet to show much in the way of polling strength so far. In the internals of Republican Chris Myers and recently-released Zogby and Monmouth polls, Myers has led Adler by close margins. You can say what you like about those pollsters, but the fact that we haven’t seen any Democratic polls of this race seems a bit telling.

While this is a D+3 open seat (albeit one that voted for Bush in 2004), it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the House in over 100 years. While Jersey Democrats seem to have a habit of being underestimated in the polls, and it still would be surprising if Myers was the ultimate victor in November, it’s hard to give Adler a clear edge here for now.

NV-02 (Heller): Likely Republican to Lean Republican

After Dean Heller beat Democrat Jill Derby in the open seat race for this R+8 district in 2006, many figured a rematch would be fruitless for Democrats here. However, several factors are making this contest interesting, the most glaring being the dramatic change in the district’s voter pool.

By the end of 2006, registered Republicans outnumbered Democrats by 171,874 to 124,008 in this district. (Bear in mind that Derby lost here by under 13,000 votes that year.) The most recent figures listed with the Nevada SoS are significantly different; since 2006, Republicans have added under 4000 new voters to the rolls here, while Democrats have picked up nearly 26,000. That’s a potentially big group of voters who simply were not in play for Derby two years ago.

A recent Research 2000 poll from August gave Heller a mere 47-42 lead over Derby, and private numbers haven’t been especially strong for Heller, either. While Heller retains a clear edge, an upset feels a bit more than just distantly possible in this district.

NY-29 (Kuhl): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. “Shotgun” Randy Kuhl faced a close race from Democrat Eric Massa here in 2006, ultimately winning by only 6,000 votes despite heavy assistance from the NRCC and no DCCC response.

Since then, Kuhl hasn’t exactly been showing much fire in the belly. He was dogged by retirement rumors earlier this year, and has consistently posted sluggish fundraising numbers, being outraised by Massa since the start of the cycle. And don’t forget his response to debate requests from community leaders and local media outfits last month:

“At this point we haven’t agreed to any. We’ve taken the position that I’ve been real busy.”

While this is an R+5 Appalachian-flavored district, it’s facing tough economic times and that should make for a volatile race for Kuhl. Two recent polls, one by the Benenson Strategy Group for the DCCC and another by SurveyUSA, have given Massa the lead here. This looks set to be the most challenging race of Kuhl’s career.

OH-01 (Chabot): Lean Republican to Tossup

GOP Rep. Steve Chabot has been a perennial target for Democrats in this Cincinnati-based district, but this year’s conditions appear to be the most treacherous.

A recent SurveyUSA poll gave Chabot a two-point lead over his Democratic opponent, state Rep. Steve Driehaus. Moreover, Chabot is particularly at-risk by Barack Obama’s strong push in this 28% African-American district. That same SurveyUSA poll gave Obama a 52-43 lead, a considerable improvement over John Kerry’s 49-51 loss here in 2004.

The big Democratic push at the top of the ticket by Obama seems set to give Chabot his biggest test in years.

The DCCC has filed nearly $1.6 million in media buys in support of House Democratic candidates tonight. Here’s the damage:

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker.

Roll Call has commissioned SurveyUSA to conduct polls in Ohio’s top four congressional races (I wish they would’ve polled OH-07 also, but I’ll take what I can get), and they’ve just released the results. Let’s take a look (9/19-21, likely voters):

OH-01:

Steve Driehaus (D): 44

Steve Chabot (R-inc): 46

Other: 6

(MoE: ±3.9%)

OH-02:

Victoria Wulsin (D): 40

Jean Schmidt (R-inc) 48

Other: 10

(MoE: ±3.9%)

OH-15 (8/2-4 in parens):

Mary Jo Kilroy (D): 47 (47)

Steve Stivers (R): 42 (44)

Don Eckhart (I): 5 (7)

Mark Noble (L): 3

(MoE: ±4%)

OH-16:

John Boccieri (D): 49

Kirk Schuring (R): 41

(MoE: ±4%)

Decent looking numbers for Mary Jo Kilroy and especially John Boccieri. It looks like the DCCC’s unanswered $850,000 spent in these two districts is making an impact.

Also looking good is Steve Driehaus, who could be poised to capitalize on Barack Obama’s organization in this district. The Cincinnati-based 1st CD is 28% African-American, and Driehaus’ hopes will rest in part on a strong turnout by these voters: if African-Americans make up only 26% of the vote on election day, Chabot’s lead grows to 47-44, but if the black turnout pushes to 30%, the race is tied at 45-45.

Roll Call also polled the Presidential race in three of the four districts (why they left off the extremely swingin’ OH-15, I have no idea):

• OH-01: Obama 52%, McCain 43% (Kerry 49%, Bush 51%)
  

• OH-02: Obama 39%, McCain 58% (Kerry 36%, Bush 64%)
  

• OH-16: Obama 46%, McCain 48% (Kerry 46%, Bush 54%)

Interesting that we’re seeing a sizable Obama improvement in these three CD-based polls, but most of the recent statewide polling shows McCain with a small edge. Vic Wulsin’s gonna have a tough time leaping over that red wall, but we can take heart in that Mean Jean is still clearly damaged goods, as she lags behind McCain by a full 10%. A conservative-leaning independent, businessman David Kirkorian, is also in the race and was recently endorsed by the Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police. He could be a factor in November.

The DCCC is opening up their floodgates to some serious advertising expenditures in support of Democratic House candidates. Tonight, the committee filed $1.75 million in advertising expenditures in 15 districts:

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can’t afford to match pace. I wonder if they’ll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP’s Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

The DCCC is out with four new ads in OH-01, NH-01, CT-04 and MI-09. All pretty good, I think the anti-Chabot one is the best. Good to see them picking up the pace. Also it looks like most of these where released a week ago but the DCCC has all the ads they are running up at their YouTube (which was invented by John McCain, by the way.)

Also in VA-10 Judy Feder has a new ad

Quite frankly, I’m not a big fan of it. She’s got a lot of money but isn’t doing what she needs to win this campaign and that’s too bad because she would be a great congresswomen.

Seeing any other ads lately?

In terms of third-party media groups throwing down coin in House races this year, the GOP has Freedom’s Crotch Watch in their corner, while Democrats have relied almost solely on the DCCC to saturate the airwaves in three special election victories. However, things are starting to perk up a bit today with the news that two GOP incumbents will be hit by a round of negative ads in the coming weeks.

In Colorado’s 4th CD, Rep. Marilyn Musgrave is the target of $175K worth of negative ads by the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund targeting her record on automobile fuel economy standards:

This is the second round of ads that DWAF has launched against Musgrave. In June, the group spent $200K against the congresswoman. That’s some serious money.

Over in Ohio’s 1st CD, the Patriot Majority group is throwing down $250K in ads against GOP Rep. Steve Chabot, hitting the congressman on the issue of high gas prices:

“It’s a shame. Gas prices are hurting Ohio. But our Congressman is part of the problem in Washington,” an announcer says in the new 30-second spot. “We’re struggling to meet rising food costs and sky-high gas prices. But instead of helping us, Congressman Chabot supported tax hikes for oil companies – not once, not twice, but five times. Chabot voted for billions in special tax breaks for oil companies even though they’re making record profits.”

The ad concludes with a screen image of President Bush and Vice President Cheney. “Tell Steve Chabot to stop siding with big oil companies and big oil men,” the announcer says.

The group also launched a biting attack ad against far-right Michigan Rep. Tim Walberg last week.

Musgrave and Chabot have had their share of fierce races, but this could be the year that efforts like these finally take their toll.

SSP currently rates CO-04 and OH-01 as Lean Republican.

Lake Research Partners for Gerry Connolly (7/10-14, likely voters):

Gerry Connolly (D): 52

Keith Fimian (R): 21

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Public Opinion Strategies for Steve Chabot (6/30-7/2, likely voters):

Steve Driehaus (D): 37

Steve Chabot (R-inc.): 50

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Got the salt shaker ready? Hot on the heels of the laughable poll released yesterday in NJ-07 come a couple more internal polls from big House races where Democratic pickups are likely. Surprise surprise: each one shows the person who commissioned the poll up by a huge margin.

The Virginia poll isn’t that bizarre: it probably reflects that most people in the district know exactly who Gerry Connolly is, as he represents most of them as Fairfax County Supervisor and just got out of a headline-grabbing primary with another well-known local Dem, Leslie Byrne. And few know who Keith Fimian is (he’s never held office; he’s independently wealthy from his home inspection business). I don’t expect to see Connolly double-up on Fimian in November like here, but he’s gotta be seen as a clear favorite.

And I do note one area of weakness in OH-01: Steve Chabot, who has represented Cincinnati since 1994, is polling only right at the 50% danger mark in his own poll? Driehaus, who is a state representative (and thus familiar only to a portion of OH-01) can only go up from here, but Chabot may be near his ceiling. This one will be close (like almost every race for Chabot).

H/t JeremiahTheMessiah

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

A Connelly internal poll has Connelly leading, however, I am more open to his internal polling because his internal had him crushing Byrne, and it came true.  

Gerry Connolly (D) – 52%

Keith Fimian (R) – 21%

Lake Research Partners.  400 People.  July 10-14.  MoE 4.4%

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

Chabot Internal poll has Chabot up by 13 points in his race against Dreihaus

Steve Chabot (R-Inc.) – 50%

Steve Dreihaus (D) – 37%

Public Opinion Strategies.  400 likely voters.  June 30-July 2.  MoE 4.9%

Also interesting Information: DSCC has reserved 6 Million dollars in Ad time against Dole.  

http://www.politico.com/blogs/…