Tag: IL-Sen
SSP Daily Digest: 6/1
• CT-Sen: Where’s the New York Times when you need them? At least we have the Post to go there: way back when she was applying for an appointed seat on Connecticut’s Board of Education, one of Linda McMahon’s selling points was that she had a degree in education. Nope, it quickly was revealed that her degree was in Freedom French (which, to my mind, is a lot harder to parse away through semantic obfuscation than “in Vietnam” — I mean, this is just a flat-out lie). Jodi Rell still picked McMahon for the board.
• IL-Sen: Where’s the New York Times when you need them, Part II? Mark Kirk has had to admit that previous claims about his military experience weren’t “precise,” when it turned out that the “Naval Intelligence Officer of the Year” award went to Kirk’s entire unit, not himself as stated on his website’s bio.
• TX-Sen: Remember when gubernatorial candidate Kay Bailey Hutchison promised to resign her Senate seat as soon as she tied up those last few legislative loose ends? After dragging that out to finish her term instead, now she’s making noises about just continuing on like nothing ever happened and running for another full term in 2012. Questions remain as to whether she’d attract high-profile primary competition if she stayed; would-be competitors would have to be heartened by her weak performance in the gubernatorial primary.
• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman pretty much ended her viability as a candidate in the general election with her closing argument ad for the GOP primary, where she demands border crackdowns and opposes “amnesty.” (In fact, check out the photo at Politico’s link; one picture says more than 1000 words could about Pete Wilson handing the Prop 187 turd torch to Whitman. UPDATE: Oops, photo not there anymore, but see here.) To make sure the message gets across to those least likely to be enthused about that, the California Nurses Association is running a Spanish-language ad on Hispanic radio stations that replays her comments.
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• MI-Gov: This endorsement isn’t exactly a surprise, seeing as how Andy Dillon is widely disliked by Michigan’s public employee unions, but still it’s an important building block for Virg Bernero. The Michigan Education Association, the state’s largest teacher’s union with 155K members, gave its nod to Lansing mayor Bernero in the Democratic gubernatorial primary; Bernero also has the endorsement of the AFL-CIO, which includes the UAW.
• NY-Gov: Has anyone ever had to confirm to the media that “no, I’m not dropping out,” and then actually gone on to win a race? Steve Levy seems intent on being the first to try to do that. With the mellifluously-named M. Myers Mermel on the verge of getting the backing of the Queens GOP, the GOP/Conservative field is basically collapsing into chaos in the wake of the infighting at the Conservative Party convention, where Levy and Carl Paladino backers forced a placeholder (Ralph Lorigo) onto the Con primary ballot in hopes that Rick Lazio doesn’t win the GOP convention. Paladino’s camp is even talking up the possibility of creating a whole different “Tea Party” ballot line. There’s now also talk of creating a new ballot line out of whole cloth coming from state GOP chair Ed Cox of all places, as a means of helping the GOP’s preferred candidates circumvent the Conservative Party’s preferences.
• SD-Gov: Polling the fast-approaching (June 8) GOP gubernatorial primary in South Dakota has, oddly enough, not been a high priority for any pollsters, so money may be our main guide here. Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard is the clear winner by that criteria, having raised $1.65 mil over the cycle, more than double the $700K of next-best state Sen. majority leader Dave Knudsen. Interestingly, though, South Dakota is the only non-southern state to use runoffs, and with three other candidates in the running, those two may find themselves facing off again in late June.
• WY-Gov: Our long national nightmare is over: we have a credible Democratic gubernatorial candidate in Wyoming. State party chair Leslie Petersen took one for the team and filed the paperwork to run in the Democratic primary on Aug. 17. The Natrona Co. party chair, R.C. Johnson, had said she’d run if no one else did, so I suppose the state chair running when no one else did is, uh, something of an upgrade from a county chair. The Jackson-based, 69-year-old Petersen (assuming she gets past the several Some Dudes in the Dem primary) will face one of not one but four strong GOPers in November.
• CA-45: Rep. Mary Bono Mack and her opponent, Palm Springs mayor Steve Pougnet, are on the same stage today to celebrate the new Palm Springs Airport control tower. Both were proponents of the construction project and will no doubt try to claim their share of the credit, although Bono Mack has the slight problem of having voted against the stimulus package that paid more than half the costs of the project.
• PA-12: Turnout numbers seem to contradict the GOP’s excuses about how they would have won the special election in the 12th if they hadn’t gotten swamped by a surge in Dem turnout motivated by the Sestak/Specter primary. Turnout in the 12th for the special election was 135K, compared with 203K in the 12th in the 2006 general election.
• WA-03: Here’s a surprise: state Sen. Craig Pridemore, who’d been carrying the liberal flag in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 3rd, is prepared to drop out. Pridemore had been lagging on the financial front compared with self-funding establishment choice Denny Heck (who now has the Dem field to himself), but that hadn’t been a deterrent before and it seems like that wasn’t what spurred the dropout. Instead, it was leaked over the weekend that the Washington Education Association was prepared to back Heck, and without the state’s biggest union on his side, Pridemore didn’t have much a route to getting over the top.
• WI-07: It looks like the careful field-clearing for state Sen. Julie Lassa in the Democratic primary in the open seat in the 7th wasn’t entirely successful. She’ll still have to face Joe Reasbeck in the Dem primary. Reasbeck, an author and consultant who doesn’t seem to have held office, seems to be at the Some Dude end of the spectrum, though. He’s announcing his campaign kickoff with a ganja break at Superior’s Richard Bong Museum.
• New Hampshire: SSPers will no doubt enjoy this… a Blue Hampshire blogger has calculated 2004/2008 PVI for each of New Hampshire’s 299 voting wards, not only putting together tables but also a slick map.
• Polltopia: PPP’s latest nugget unearthed from their crosstabs is that Democrats are still holding onto moderates pretty well, contrary to what conventional wisdom has been asserting. Tom Jensen finds that Dems are leading among self-identified moderates in all the key Senate race around the country. (The problem, of course, is that there are more self-identified conservatives than liberals, which accounts for GOP leads in a number of these races.)
• History: Here’s a very interesting bit of history from Arkansas writer John Brummett, looking at the remarkable parallels between the Blanche Lincoln/Bill Halter race, and the long-forgotten 1972 Democratic primary in Arkansas where upstart David Pryor almost knocked off long-serving conservative Democrat John McClellan.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/24 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: Blanche Lincoln is retooling her ad message quite a bit, now that it’s come crashing home to her that she actually has to suck up to that annoying Democratic base for a few weeks in order to win her runoff in two weeks. Her new ad features lots of Obama footage, and highlights her support of the stimulus package and… well, “support of” might be overstating it, so her vote for HCR. Compare that with her old ad saying “I don’t answer to my party. I answer to Arkansas.”
• IL-Sen: Jesse Jackson Jr. seems to be up to some serious no-good in the Illinois Senate primary, although the reason isn’t clear. He’s withheld his endorsement from Alexi Giannoulias so far, and now is going so far as to talk up his respect for Mark Kirk (they serve on Appropriations together) and float the idea of endorsing him. Is he using his endorsement as a bargaining chip to get some squeaky-wheel-greasing (like Jackson’s pet airport project – recall that he didn’t endorse 1998 IL-Gov nominee Glenn Poshard over that very issue), or is he war-gaming his own run against a first-term Kirk in 2016?
• NY-Sen, NY-Sen-B (pdf): Siena is out with a slew of New York data today. They find Kirsten Gillibrand in good position in the Senate race against three second-tier opponents; she beats Bruce Blakeman 51-24, Joe DioGuardi 51-25, and David Malpass 53-22. In the GOP primary, DioGuardi is at 15, Blakeman at 8, and Malpass at 4. I guess they want to be thorough, because they also took a rather in-depth look at the usually neglected NY-Sen-_A_. Charles Schumer beats Nassau Co. Controller George Maragos 65-22, Jay Townsend 63-24, Gary Berntsen 64-23, and Jim Staudenraus 65-21. Political consultant Townsend leads the primary at 10, followed by Maragos at 5, with some dudes Bertnsen and Staudenraus at 3 and 1. They even poll Schumer’s primary, wherein he beats Randy Credico 78-11.
• AK-Gov: DRM Market Research (not working for any particular candidate) polled the two primaries in the Alaska gubernatorial race (which aren’t until August), finding, as expected, GOP incumbent Sean Parnell and Dem Ethan Berkowitz with big leads. Parnell is at 59, with 9 for former state House speaker Ralph Samuels and 7 for Bill Walker. Berkowitz is at 48, with 17 for state Sen. Hollis French and 8 for Bob Poe. Diane Benson, who ran for the House in 2006 and 2008, is running for Lt. Governor this time, and leads the Dem primary there.
• AL-Gov: Ron Sparks is out with some details from an internal poll with one week left to go before the primary, needing to push back not only against an Artur Davis internal but today’s R2K poll. For some reason, there aren’t specific toplines, but Sparks is touting a one-point lead over Davis. The poll also sees Davis polling at only 43% among African-Americans.
• NY-Gov (pdf): Siena has gubernatorial numbers, too. Believe it or not, Andrew Cuomo is winning. He beats Rick Lazio 66-24, Steve Levy 65-22, and Carl Paladino 65-22. In the GOP primary, Lazio is at 29, Carl Paladino at 16, and Steve Levy at 14. How bad do you think state party chair Ed Cox is feeling that his hand-picked Killer-App party-swapper isn’t even polling ahead of a bestiality-email-forwarding teabagger? Well, Cox’s performance here and the Senate races has been so miserable that the latest local conspiracy theory is that Cox is throwing in the towel on the Senate race so that his son, Chris Cox, can have an unimpeded run against Kirsten Gillibrand in 2012. (Of course, the cart is a few miles down the road ahead of the horse; there’s no guarantee Cox Jr. can even make it out of the GOP primary in NY-01, let alone past Tim Bishop.)
• OK-Gov: I don’t know if Mary Fallin is feeling any heat here, but nevertheless, she put out an internal poll taken for her by Cole, Hargrave, Snodgrass & Associates. She leads both Dems, Lt. Gov. Jari Askins and AG Drew Edmondson by an identical 52-30 margin. (UPDATE: The Fallin campaign writes in to say this wasn’t an internal, but CHS acting on its own.)
• OR-Gov: Chris Dudley airballed his first salvo of the general election against John Kitzhaber. Dudley accused Kitzhaber of having tried to put the state in debt by borrowing to balance the state’s budget during the 2001 recession. Ooops… Kitzhaber did the exact opposite, as he fought against doing so, against legislators of both parties. (Ted Kulongoski eventually signed off on the idea in 2003, after Kitz was out of office.)
• PA-Gov: Maybe one of his younger, hipper staffers warned him that he was heavy-handedly barking up the wrong tree, as AG and GOP nominee Tom Corbett did a 180, pulling his Twitter subpoena to try and ascertain the identities of several anonymous critics.
• SC-Gov: Well, as is usually the case, the most salacious political news of the day is also the biggest. A South Carolina blogger, Will Folks, who used to be on Nikki Haley’s payroll is now claiming that he and Haley had an affair (prior to Folks’s marriage, but after Haley’s). Folks, believe it or not, is supporting Haley, but apparently wanted to get this out there as other candidates have been pushing oppo research on this to reporters. Haley had had some recent momentum, with a big ad buy on her behalf from the Mark Sanford camp and a corresponding lead in the most recent Rasmussen poll of the primary.
• TX-Gov: This is an internet poll by British pollster YouGov, so, well, have your salt and vinegar shakers handy. Working on behalf of the Texas Tribune and the Univ. of Texas, they find incumbent GOPer Rick Perry with a lead over Dem Bill White 44-35 (and similar-sized leads for the Republicans for all the other statewide offices downballot).
• Polltopia: Here’s some more hard evidence that pollsters are increasingly missing the boat by not polling cellphone users. A new Centers for Disease Control survey finds that nearly a quarter of the adult population is simply being missed by many pollsters (especially autodialers like Rasmussen and SurveyUSA, given limitations on auto-dialing cellphones). The CDC also hints at how cellphone-only adults are not just more urban, more poor, less white, younger, and more Internet-savvy, but also less “domestic” and more “bohemian,” which Nate Silver thinks indicates a different set of political beliefs, too. Given the statistically significant difference between Pew’s generic congressional ballots that include and exclude cellphone users, the cellphone effect seems to be skewing polls away from Dems this cycle — the real question is, are those cellphone-only users at all likely to show up in November?
• Demographics: Josh Goodman has another interesting piece in his redistricting preview series of population changes in big states, this time in Illinois. He finds the greatest population growth in the suburban collar counties of Illinois, also the most politically competitive part of the state these days. While these all trended sharply in the Democratic direction in 2008, the question is whether that trend hold without the Obama favorite-son effect this year.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/21 (Afternoon Edition)
• CO-Sen: Colorado’s state party conventions are this weekend. Most of the drama is on the Democratic side in the Senate race — actually, even there, it’s not that dramatic, as underdog Andrew Romanoff is expected to prevail at the convention because of his connections to party insiders and his former fellow legislators (and also based on his performance at precinct-level caucuses). Michael Bennet is still expected to meet the 30% threshold that gets him on the ballot without signatures, though, and victory here for Romanoff may be pyrrhic anyway, as the Dem convention winners have fared poorly in the actual primary (ex-Sen. Ken Salazar, for instance, lost the 2004 convention to Mike Miles). The GOP convention should be less interesting because, realizing they have little hope among the revved-up base, establishment-flavored Jane Norton and Tom Wiens aren’t bothering, simply opting to qualify for the primary by petition, so Weld Co. DA and Tea Party fave Ken Buck is expected to romp.
• CT-Sen, CT-Gov: Likewise, the state conventions are scheduled for this weekend in Connecticut as well. Although there’s a competitive battle in the Dem convention on the gubernatorial side between Ned Lamont and Dan Malloy, it seems like all eyes will be on Richard Blumenthal instead, to see if there’s any sort of challenge to him that pops up (other than the minor candidacy of Merrick Alpert). If someone is going to get drafted as a last-minute Blumenthal replacement, it doesn’t look like it’s going to be the newly-freed-up Susan Bysiewicz, who, seemingly caught off-guard by this week’s Supreme Court ruling about her AG eligibility, is now saying she won’t run for anything in 2010. There’s also the Senate face-off in the GOP convention, where ex-Rep. Rob Simmons’ connections and institutional support will be measured up against Linda McMahon’s gigantic wealth; McMahon, for her part, is back to touting her camp’s leak of the Blumenthal story to the NYT after hiding it yesterday.
• FL-Sen: Charlie Crist couldn’t square his support for Elena Kagan today with his opposition to Sonia Sotomayor, telling the Miami Herald that he really couldn’t recall why he opposed Sotomayor. (Um, maybe because he was a Republican back then?) On the plus side, Crist is coming out in favor of the Fair Districts initiatives on the ballot this November, which would smooth out the most pernicious tendencies toward gerrymandering and thus is strongly opposed by the state’s large Republican legislative majorities.
• IL-Sen: Hmmm, I wonder where this ranks on the hierarchy of misstating your military credentials? Rep. Mark Kirk told a gathering last May that “I command the war room in the Pentagon.” Kirk does have a high-profile role in the National Military Command Center, but the war room is run by one-star general, and that’s something that Kirk most definitely is not. Let’s see what the NYT does with this one.
• KY-Sen: After a bad news day yesterday, Rand Paul is continuing to run his mouth, whining about how he was supposed to get a media honeymoon after Tuesday’s Randslide, and also going the full Bachmann against Barack Obama, saying it “sounds Unamerican” for him to be criticizing BP over its massive oil spill because “accidents sometimes happen.” (So that “B” in BP stands for American Petroleum now?) Paul is scheduled for this weekend’s Meet the Press, for what his handlers hope is damage control but may turn into extended hole-digging.
Paul also expounded yesterday on the Americans with Disabilities Act, and he should be lucky the media were too fixated yesterday on his Civil Rights Act statements to provide any fact-checking about his bizarre ignorance of the ADA. Paul’s example of the ADA’s suckage is that it would be reasonable, if an employee used a wheelchair at a two-story business, to just give that person a first-floor office instead of forcing the employer to install an elevator at terrible cost. That’s true; it would be “reasonable” — which is exactly why the ADA asks employers to provide “reasonable accommodation” to disabled employees, a prime example of which might be letting someone work on a lower floor. Removal of architectural barriers is not required if it isn’t “readily achievable” (in other words, easily accomplished, without much difficulty or expense) — which means, grab bars in the bathroom stall or a curb cut, yes, an elevator in an old two-story building, no. Paul’s attack on the ADA seems entirely based on having failed to, as the teabaggers have often urged us to do, “read the bill.”
• NC-Sen: There’s a late-in-the-game shakeup at the Cal Cunningham camp, as his campaign manager and communications director are out the door. Cunningham’s spokesperson says it’s a necessary retooling for the different nature of the runoff, with less focus on the air war and more on grassroots and shoe-leather.
• PA-Sen: Sigh. The DSCC, which isn’t exactly rolling in money these days, spent $540K in coordinated expenditures trying to prop up one-year Democrat Arlen Specter in his 54-46 loss to Joe Sestak in the primary.
• MN-Gov: Margaret Anderson Kelliher reached across the aisle, or at least in the pool of bipartisan budget wonkery, for a running mate, picking John Gunyou. Gunyou was the finance commissioner for Republican Gov. Arne Carlson; he also worked as finance director for Minneapolis mayor Don Fraser and is currently city manager of the suburb of Minnetonka.
• CO-07: The GOP already had its district-level convention in the 7th, as a prelude to the statewide convo. The two main rivals, Lang Sias and Ryan Frazier, both cleared the 30% mark to get on the ballot; the minor candidates didn’t clear the mark and won’t try to get on by petition. Frazier got 49%, while Sias got 43%. Sias’s nomination was seconded by ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo, as well as the 7th’s former Rep. Bob Beauprez.
• CT-04: Thom Hermann, the First Selectman of Easton and a guy with a lot of wealth at his disposal, is making his presence known in the GOP primary field in the 4th, heading into the weekend’s convention. He’s out with an internal poll, via Wilson Research, giving him a large lead over presumed frontrunner state Sen. Dan Debicella among those primary voters who’ve decided. It’s reported in a strange, slightly deceptive way, though: he has a 44-25 lead over Debicella among those who’ve decided, but only 36% have decided! (So by my calculations, it’s more like a 16-9 lead in reality?)
• FL-02: Dem Rep. Allen Boyd seems to be taking nothing for granted this year. He’s already up with his second TV ad against his underfunded primary opponent, state Sen. Al Lawson, this time hitting Lawson for votes to cut back funding for healthcare and construction jobs. (J)
• HI-01: We’re up to 48% of all ballots having been returned in the 1st, with tomorrow being the deadline in the all-mail-in special election to replace Neil Abercrombie (152K out of 317K).
• ID-02: I have no idea what this is about, but I thought I’d put it out there, as it’s one of the weirdest IEs we’ve seen in a while. Not only did someone plunk down $8K for polling in the 2nd, one of the most reliably Republican top-to-bottom districts anywhere where Rep. Mike Simpson only ever faces token opposition, but the money’s from the American Dental Association. Making sure Idahoans are brushing properly?
• IN-03: State Sen. Marlin Stutzman made it official today: he’s running in the special election for the seat just vacated by Rep. Mark Souder. Having performed well in the Senate primary (and having had a path cleared for him by Mike Pence’s lowering of the boom on Souder), he looks like the one to beat here.
• PA-07: Former local TV news anchor Dawn Stensland has decided to forego a vaguely-threatened independent run in the 7th. That leaves it a one-on-one battle between Dem Bryan Lentz and GOPer Pat Meehan.
• PA-12: The GOP seems to have settled on its preferred explanation for trying to spin away its underwhelming performance in the special election in the 12th, via their polling guru Gene Ulm. It’s all Ed Rendell’s fault, for scheduling it on the same day as the Senate primary, causing all those Joe Sestak supporters (of which there were many in that corner in Pennsylvania) to come out of the woodwork and vote in the 12th while they were at it.
• Unions: Now that’s a lot of lettuce. Two major unions are promising to spend almost $100 million together to preserve Democratic majorities this fall. The AFSCME is promising $50 million and the SEIU is planning $44 million.
• Enthusiasm Gap: This is something I’ve often suspected, but never felt like bringing up because the numbers weren’t there to prove the point (and also perhaps because saying so would put me at odds with the general netroots orthodoxy): the Democratic “enthusiasm gap” isn’t so much borne out of dissatisfaction with the insufficient aggressiveness of the Obama administration or the slow pace of getting watered-down legislation out of Congress as much as it’s borne out of complacency. In other words, there’s the sense by casual/irregular/low-information Dem voters that they did their job in 2008, got the country back on track, things are slowly improving, and because they aren’t angry anymore they don’t need to keep following up. PPP backs this up: among those “somewhat excited ” or “not very excited” about voting in November, Obama’s approval is a higher-than-average 58/35, and their supports for the health care bill is also a higher-than-average 50/38.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/17 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: The White House hasn’t given up on trying to put Blanche Lincoln over the top tomorrow; they’re out with a new Barack Obama robocall on her behalf, saying she’s “standing on the side of workers.” Greg Sargent’s head is busy exploding from all the logical disconnect, since Lincoln’s main argument is that Bill Halter’s union support is an indication of how he’s a tool of Beltway liberals.
• AZ-Sen: I know, I know, people pick up and move on from jobs all the time, and you shouldn’t read too much into it. But when your campaign manager and deputy campaign manager depart on the same day, in the middle of a dogfight against an insurgent primary opponent, it’s going to always send up red flags. John McCain’s camp maintains they weren’t fired but are moving over to the national GOP’s fundraising operations.
• CA-Sen: This isn’t a good time for Tom Campbell to be cutting back on advertising, with the June 8 GOP primary fast approaching and Carly Fiorina still within striking distance and pitching in a few million dollars of her own. He’s cutting back on TV ad buys for the campaign’s final two weeks (although certainly not going dark) and will be focusing on direct mail instead. This could mean he’s running low on money, feeling confident enough in the primary to start marshaling general election resources… or both.
• IL-Sen: I don’t know if it’s much of a sign of strength to release an internal poll that shows you tied, but it seems like the Alexi Giannoulias camp is eager to push back on the meme that he’s somehow been fatally wounded by the Broadway Bank saga. Greenberg Quinlan Rosner finds Giannoulias and Mark Kirk tied at 44-44. For comparison purposes, they also let it be known that their previous (unreleased) poll, immediately after the Feds’ seizure of the bank in late April, had Giannoulias in much worse shape, down 43-37, so it’s possible the worst of the damage has passed as the story slips down the memory hole.
• KY-Sen: Wow, turns out not only Democrats get to whine about Fox News’ selective treatment of the news. Trey Grayson is getting in on the act, griping about Rand Paul’s constant presence on the network and the softball questions he gets thrown. That’d be fine if he were, y’know, not trying to win the GOP primary, where questioning the almighty Fox is an act of heresy. (Ironically, at the same time Grayson was having his press conference to level the charges, Rand Paul was busy appearing on Fox.)
• CA-Gov: In the Fix endorsement hierarchy, this probably slots in as “12) The “Oh shit, do I have to accept this endorsement?” Endorsement.” Meg Whitman just got Dick Cheney’s endorsement, fittingly in an op-ed in the Orange County Register. Meanwhile, a new poll from M4 Strategies (on behalf of the Small Business Action Committee) finds Whitman in better shape than the last few polls have: they say she leads Steve Poizner 49-32.
• CT-Gov: Yet another pre-convention dropout, as the minor candidates jump out of the way. This time it was on the Republican side, as Danbury mayor Mark Boughton plans to pull the plug on his campaign and sign on as Lt. Governor Michael Fedele’s running mate.
• NM-Gov: The Albuquerque Journal polled the Republican gubernatorial primary, which, like many other primaries, has moved into “fast-approaching” territory (on June 1). They find a two-way duel at the top, between former state party chair Allen Weh and Dona Ana County DA Susana Martinez. Weh leads 31-30, while Pete Domenici Jr. has discovered that you’ve gotta have something more than name rec as a reason to run; he’s lagging at 10. Martinez was also the latest female politician to get the endorsement of Sarah Palin this week, so we’ll have to see if that gives her some momentum to break away.
• NV-Gov: Mason-Dixon, for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, also looked at the Republican gubernatorial primary in their most recent poll. (Recall they released the surprising results of Sue Lowden 30, Sharron Angle 25, Danny Tarkanian 22, John Chachas 3, and Chad Christensen 2 in the Senate primary last week.) They find, to no one’s surprise, that Jim Gibbons’ time is about done. Brian Sandoval leads the incumbent Gibbons, 45-27, with Mike Montandon clocking in at 6.
• OR-Gov: One more Republican gubernatorial primary, and this one actually is a surprise: while most pollsters (especially SurveyUSA) have given Chris Dudley a significant edge in Oregon, Eugene-based Lindholm says that Allen Alley is narrowly in the lead. Alley is ahead of Dudley 29-26, John Lim is at 10, and Bill Sizemore is at 4. One caveat: I’ve never heard of Lindholm before today, although they do maintain they aren’t working for any of the candidates in the race. At any rate, maybe there’s some potential for a surprise tomorrow.
• NY-13: Here’s some interesting cat fud in the primary in the 13th, where GOP state Sen. Andrew Lanza was seen going after GOP candidate Michael Grimm over campaigning at a Memorial Day event. Lanza had been associated with running for the seat himself, and says he’ll back ex-Rep. Vito Fossella in case the odd rumors about a comeback come true.
• NY-24: After refusing to commit to his re-election bid back in April after getting pressed from all sides on his HCR conduct, Dem Rep. Mike Arcuri announced today that he will indeed be seeking a third term. (J)
• OR-05: After some earlier suspicions that moderate state Rep. Scott Bruun, the NRCC’s preferred recruit, might not even get past teabagging businessman Fred Thompson (no, not the Fred Thompson), SurveyUSA polled the GOP primary and found that Bruun is very likely to prevail. Bruun leads Thompson 46-25, including 52-30 among the “already voted.”
• WV-01: Political scientist Boris Shor has attracted some good notices, at 538 and similar places, for his work on extrapolating DW-Nominate-type scores into the state legislatures. Looking at Mike Oliverio’s votes in the West Virginia state Senate (where he’s about as conservative as the average WV Senate Republican), Shor projects Oliverio as the most conservative Democratic member of the House, more so than even Walt Minnick.
• CfG: Speaking of Walt Minnick, he was one of only three Democrats to get the seal of good housekeeping from the Club for Growth. Minnick, Gene Taylor, and Bobby Bright all managed to break 50% on the CfG’s scoring system; in fact, Bright got up to 64% positive.
• Polltopia: PPP wants your input on where to poll next: California, Iowa, Michigan, South Carolina, or Washington? PPP’s Tom Jensen is also teasing that another NRSC-backed candidate is in some trouble, in a poll to be released tomorrow. Don’t leave us hanging, Tom!
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 16
AR-Sen (4/26, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 29 (36)
John Boozman (R): 57 (51)
Some other: 9 (6)
Not sure: 5 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 30 (35)
Kim Hendren (R): 51 (51)
Some other: 11 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 53 (51)
Some other: 12 (6)
Not sure: 4 (7)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 32 (36)
Curtis Coleman (R): 52 (48)
Some other: 8 (7)
Not sure: 7 (8)Blanche Lincoln (D-inc): 31 (35)
Jim Holt (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 9 (7)Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
John Boozman (R): 56 (48)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (11)Bill Halter (D): 33 (34)
Kim Hendren (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 13 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)Bill Halter (D): 33 (36)
Gilbert Baker (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 9 (12)Bill Halter (D): 37 (37)
Curtis Coleman (R): 43 (40)
Some other: 11 (10)
Not sure: 9 (13)Bill Halter (D): 31 (34)
Jim Holt (R): 49 (43)
Some other: 12 (9)
Not sure: 8 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 4/16 in parentheses):
Terry Goddard (D): 40 (40)
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 48 (44)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 5 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (41)
Jane Norton (R): 48 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 6 (8)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 48 (44)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 7 (12)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 42 (39)
Tom Wiens (R): 44 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 9 (12)Andrew Romanoff (D): 39 (38)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (8)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (37)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)Andrew Romanoff (D): 40 (38)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Gov (5/4, likely voters, 4/1 in parentheses):
Ned Lamont (D): 42 (37)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (7)
Not sure: 13 (13)Ned Lamont (D): 48 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 28 (38)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (12)Dan Malloy (D): 38 (35)
Thomas Foley (R): 35 (44)
Some other: 11 (8)
Not sure: 16 (14)Dan Malloy (D): 44 (40)
Michael Fedele (R): 27 (37)
Some other: 10 (7)
Not sure: 20 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/7 in parentheses):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (55)
Linda McMahon (R): 39 (35)
Some other: 6 (3)
Not sure: 4 (6)Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (52)
Rob Simmons (R): 32 (38)
Some other: 5 (4)
Not sure: 8 (6)Richard Blumenthal (D): 54 (58)
Peter Schiff (R): 29 (32)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 11 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
DE-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 2/22 in parentheses):
Chris Coons (D): 32 (32)
Mike Castle (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 4/21 in parentheses):
Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (22)
Marco Rubio (R): 34 (37)
Charlie Crist (I): 38 (30)
Not sure: 11 (11)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
GA-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Roy Barnes (D): 43 (41)
John Oxendine (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 6 (11)Roy Barnes (D): 39 (40)
Nathan Deal (R): 46 (43)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 8 (13)Roy Barnes (D): 41 (39)
Karen Handel (R): 42 (42)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 10 (14)Roy Barnes (D): 42 (40)
Eric Johnson (R): 37 (38)
Some other: 8 (6)
Not sure: 13 (16)Thurbert Baker (D): 34
John Oxendine (R): 44
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13Thurbert Baker (D): 31
Nathan Deal (R): 47
Some other: 9
Not sure: 13Thurbert Baker (D): 36
Karen Handel (R): 44
Some other: 5
Not sure: 15Thurbert Baker (D): 35
Eric Johnson (R): 38
Some other: 9
Not sure: 18
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Gov (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Chet Culver (D-inc): 38 (36)
Terry Branstad (R): 53 (52)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 3 (6)Chet Culver (D-inc): 41 (40)
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 5 (11)Chet Culver (D-inc): 43 (40)
Rod Roberts (R): 41 (38)
Some other: 9 (10)
Not sure: 7 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IA-Sen (4/29, likely voters, 3/17 in parentheses):
Roxanne Conlin (D): 40 (36)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 53 (55)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 4 (5)Bob Krause (D): 31 (31)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 8 (8)Tom Fiegen (D): 30 (28)
Charles Grassley (R-inc): 57 (57)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Gov (4/28, likely voters, 4/5 in parentheses):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (38)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 11 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/ in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (37)
Mark Kirk (R): 46 (41)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IN-Sen (5/5-6, likely voters, 4/13-14 in parentheses):
Brad Ellsworth (D): 36 (33)
Dan Coats (R): 51 (54)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 8 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (4/28, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 38 (36)
Rand Paul (R): 47 (50)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 10 (11)Jack Conway (D): 38 (32)
Trey Grayson (R): 43 (52)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 12 (11)Dan Mongiardo (D): 32 (37)
Rand Paul (R): 48 (52)
Some other: 8 (3)
Not sure: 12 (8)Dan Mongiardo (D): 31 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 45 (53)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 13 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MI-Gov (D primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):
Andy Dillon (D): 13 (12)
Virg Bernero (D): 12 (8)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 9 (10)
Some other: 15 (17)
Not sure: 51 (53)
(MoE: ±6%)
MI-Gov (R primary) (4/22, likely voters, 3/24 in parentheses):
Peter Hoekstra (R): 28 (27)
Rick Snyder (R): 14 (18)
Mike Cox (R): 13 (13)
Mike Bouchard (R): 9 (6)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 32 (32)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MO-Sen (5/3, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 4 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NC-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 4/19 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 40 (32)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 48 (50)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 9 (12)Cal Cunningham (D): 37 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 50 (53)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±3%)
NC-Sen (D runoff) (5/5, likely voters, no trendlines):
Elaine Marshall (D): 42
Cal Cunningham (D): 37
Some other: 4
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-AL (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):
Earl Pomeroy (D-inc): 45 (44)
Rick Berg (R): 49 (51)
Some other: 2 (1)
Not sure: 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
ND-Sen (4/20, likely voters, 3/23 in parentheses):
Tracy Potter (D): 24 (25)
John Hoeven (R): 69 (68)
Some other: 2 (2)
Not sure: 5 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Rory Reid (D): 47 (43)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (45)
Some other: 12 (8)
Not sure: 3 (4)Rory Reid (D): 35 (34)
Brian Sandoval (R): 53 (55)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 5 (4)Rory Reid (D): 39 (38)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (45)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (4/27, likely voters, 3/31 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (39)
Sue Lowden (R): 52 (54)
Some other: 6 (4)
Not sure: 3 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 41 (42)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 51 (49)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 4 (2)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (40)
Sharron Angle (R): 48 (51)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 4 (3)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NY-Gov (4/27, likely voters, 3/29 in parentheses):
Andrew Cuomo (D): 56 (52)
Rick Lazio (R): 24 (29)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (13)Andrew Cuomo (D): 50 (50)
Steve Levy (R): 27 (26)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 17 (17)Andrew Cuomo (D): 55 (51)
Carl Paladino (R): 25 (28)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 14 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Gov (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Ted Strickland (D-inc): 45 (45)
John Kasich (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 3 (2)
Not sure: 6 (7)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OH-Sen (5/5, likely voters, 3/30 in parentheses):
Lee Fisher (D): 43 (38)
Rob Portman (R): 42 (43)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
OR-Gov (4/26, likely voters, 2/17 in parentheses):
John Kitzhaber (D): 41 (42)
Chris Dudley (R): 41 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (15)John Kitzhaber (D): 48 (42)
Allen Alley (R): 33 (34)
Some other: 6 (8)
Not sure: 13 (16)John Kitzhaber (D): 50 (40)
John Lim (R): 34 (38)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 12 (14)Bill Bradbury (D): 40 (39)
Chris Dudley (R): 40 (36)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 13 (17)Bill Bradbury (D): 43 (41)
Allen Alley (R): 34 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (16)Bill Bradbury (D): 44 (38)
John Lim (R): 32 (35)
Some other: 9 (9)
Not sure: 15 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Gov (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, no trendlines):
Dan Onorato (D): 34
Jack Wagner (D): 17
Anthony Williams (D): 17
Joe Hoeffel (D): 9
Some other: 6
Not sure: 17
(MoE: ±5%)
PA-Sen (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 38 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (50)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 6 (6)Joe Sestak (D): 40 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 42 (47)
Some other: 10 (5)
Not sure: 9 (12)
(MoE: ±3%)
PA-Sen (D primary) (5/6, likely voters, 4/12 in parentheses):
Joe Sestak (D): 47 (42)
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (44)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 8 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)
RI-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Frank Caprio (D): 33 (28)
John Robitaille (R): 21 (22)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (39)
Not sure: 13 (11)Patrick Lynch (D): 24 (22)
John Robitaille (R): 26 (26)
Lincoln Chafee (I): 35 (37)
Not sure: 15 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-AL (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 45 (44)
Chris Nelson (R): 41 (42)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (9)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 50 (46)
Kristi Noem (R): 35 (35)
Some other: 5 (8)
Not sure: 9 (10)Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-inc): 48 (45)
Blake Curd (R): 36 (33)
Some other: 7 (8)
Not sure: 9 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SD-Gov (4/21, likely voters, 3/25 in parentheses):
Scott Heidepriem (D): 33 (32)
Dennis Daugaard (R): 53 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 9 (13)Scott Heidepriem (D): 41 (37)
Dave Knudson (R): 41 (32)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 10 (19)Scott Heidepriem (D): 46 (39)
Gordon Howie (R): 31 (34)
Some other: 8 (9)
Not sure: 14 (17)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
WA-Sen (5/4, likely voters, 4/6 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (46)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 3 (4)Patty Murray (D-inc): 52 (48)
Don Benton (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (47)
Clint Didier (R): 36 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 8 (11)Patty Murray (D-inc): 49 (45)
Paul Akers (R): 35 (37)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 10 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Dem Ticket Takes a Hit
Research 2000 for Markos Moulitsas’ Wonder Emporium (5/3-5, likely voters, 2/22-24):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 38 (43)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (36)
Undecided: 19 (19)Pat Quinn (D-inc): 36 (47)
Bill Brady (R): 39 (32)
Undecided: 25 (20)Pat Quinn (D-inc): 35
Bill Brady (R): 39
Scott Lee Cohen (I): 3
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)
Lots of yuck here from Research 2000, who see both Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn’s fortunes slide. In the wake of Giannoulias’ family bank collapsing, his favorables have fallen from 49-34 in February to 38-46. It remains to be seen whether the worst is over in terms of the bad press that has consistently dogged Giannoulias for months like a set of nasty stink lines.
And as for those gubernatorial numbers… well, can anyone think of examples of incumbents who have polled in the 30s and survived in a general election (without a freakish third-party challenger muddying the waters)? Bill Brady may be wildly out of whack with his state, but 2010 could be just the type of year that allows a few nutters like him to slip through the cracks.
SSP Daily Digest: 5/6 (Afternoon Edition)
• AR-Sen: Americans for Job Security strikes back! They’re launching a new ad against Bill Halter on the outsourcing front… well, it’s pretty much the same ad, just not as, y’know, openly racist. They’re spending almost $500K on the TV ad buy, supplementing the large amounts they’ve already dropped in this race.
• FL-Sen: Mason-Dixon has a new post-party-switch poll of the Senate race. They find Charlie Crist with a narrow lead, at 38, compared with Marco Rubio at 32 and Kendrick Meek at 19, but they also warn that Crist’s sitting on a house of cards, as more than half of Crist’s support is from Democrats and that may erode as Meek gets better known (Meek is at 40% unknown). I trust Mason-Dixon more than the three other pollsters who’ve also released results this week, but they all seem to be reaching a sort of consensus on this race (Rasmussen at 38C-34R-17M, McLaughlin at 33C-29R-15M, and POS for Crist at 36C-28R-23M). Meanwhile, the candidates are fumbling around trying to pin down their respective bases with various flipfloppery: Rubio is walking back his previous disdain for Arizona’s immigration law, now saying he’s all for it, while the occasionally pro-life Crist is prepared to veto a bill requiring pregnant women to view a fetal ultrasound before being able to have an abortion.
• IL-Sen: This is probably good news for Alexi Giannoulias, although it was more a question of when it would happen rather than if it would happen, given the media’s tendency to get distracted by the next shiny object. A local TV reporter more or less called out Mark Kirk for incessant focus on the Broadway Bank scandal and asked him what else he was planning to talk about in the future, perhaps indicative of a growing media boredom with the story.
• PA-Sen/Gov: Today’s tracker in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call poll shows a narrower spread in the Senate race: Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 45-40. In the Governor’s primary, Dan Onorato is at 34, Joe Hoeffel is at 12, and Anthony Williams and Jack Wagner are at 8. Meanwhile, the Sestak camp is hitting Specter with a new TV ad focusing on what’s probably Specter’s biggest vulnerability in the Democratic primary: the fact that he was a Republican Senator for, y’know, three decades or so. The ad’s replete with lots of photos of Specter and G.W. Bush, together again. The tightening race and aggressive tone has the Pennsylvania Dem establishment worried, and state party chair T.J. Rooney is sounding the alarm, calling a possible Sestak win “cataclysmic” and making various electability arguments in favor of Specter.
• AL-Gov: We don’t have any actual hard numbers to report, but local pollster Gerald Johnson (of Capital Survey Research Center) has been leaking reports that there’s significant tightening in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, with Ag Commissioner Ron Sparks moving within the margin of error of Rep. Artur Davis. Davis’s numbers seem to have dropped following his anti-HCR vote. Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Tim James‘ attention-grabbing, race-baiting ad seems to have had its desired effect. He just released an internal poll showing him taking the lead, with him at 26, Roy Moore at 21, Bradley Byrne at 20, and Robert Bentley at 7. (The previous James internal had Moore at 27, Byrne at 18, and James at 14.)
• CA-Gov (pdf): Another gubernatorial primary where there’s some tightening is on the Republican side is the GOP primary in California. Steve Poizner is touting an internal poll from POS that his him within 10 points of the once-unstoppable Meg Whitman, 38-28. It seems like Whitman lost a whole lot of inevitability once someone than her actually started advertising on TV, too.
• CT-02: That was fast… it was only a few days ago that former TV anchor Janet Peckinpaugh’s interest in running the 2nd became known. Now she’s officially launched her campaign, with Connecticut’s nominating convention fast approaching (May 21).
• PA-12: The DCCC paid for another $170K in media buys on behalf of Mark Critz, bringing their total investment in this special election up to $641K. (J) The GOP is bringing one more big gun to the district to campaign on Tim Burns’s behalf, too: Rep. Mike Pence.
• VA-05: In the wake of his surprising decision to join the Constitution Party, ex-Rep. Virgil Goode had to clarify several things: most notably, he said that, no, he’s not running in the 5th this year as a Constitution Party candidate (or as anything else), although he wouldn’t rule out a future run. Furthermore, he isn’t leaving the Republican Party; he doesn’t view membership as mutually exclusive. Meanwhile, Politico is wondering what’s up between the NRCC and the establishment candidate in the 5th, state Sen. Robert Hurt. Hurt hasn’t been added to the NRCC’s Young Guns list, despite their tendency to add anyone with a pulse everywhere else. The NRCC hasn’t added any names in this district and says they’d prefer to wait until after the primary — although in other contested primaries, they’ve added multiple names to the list, which suggests that they’re trying to lay low in this race, which has become a rather emblematic flash point in the establishment/teabagger rift this year.
• WA-03: Both Democratic candidates in the 3rd nailed down labor endorsements in the last few days. Denny Heck got the endorsement of the Boeing Machinists (maybe the state’s most powerful union) and the local IBEW, while Craig Pridemore got the nod from the pulp and paper workers.
• WI-07: With David Obey’s surprising retirement announcement yesterday, we’re moving the open seat in the 7th to “Tossup” status (from Likely Dem). On the one hand, it’s a D+3 district with a solid Democratic bench of state legislators, but on the other hand, GOP challenger Sean Duffy is sitting on a lot of money and establishment support, and there’s, of course, the nature of the year. CQ lists a whole herd of possible Democratic successors in the district: the big name on the list is probably Russ Decker, the state Senate’s majority leader. Others include state Sens. Julie Lassa and Pat Kreitlow, state Rep. Donna Seidel, and attorney Christine Bremer. Another area state Sen., Robert Jauch, has already taken himself out of the running. And one other Republican isn’t ruling out a bid, which could complicate Duffy’s path: state Rep. Jerry Petrowski.
• CA-Init: It looks like Californians will get the chance to vote on an initiative that proposes to move congressional redistricting to the same independent commission process as legislative redistricting, as the initiative just qualified for the ballot. I’m genuinely torn: on the one hand, the naïve idealist in me admits some fondness for compactly-drawn swingy districts, but on the other hand, Dems have a good shot at controlling the trifecta in California and with the ability to wring some additional Dem-leaning seats out of the map, control of the 2012 House may well be at stake here.
• NRCC: The NRCC promoted 13 members of its Young Guns framework to the top tier (the “Young Guns” level). This includes not only the aforementioned Sean Duffy, but also the winners of the three contested primaries in Indiana… and a surprise in the form of Morgan Griffith, who’s taking on Rep. Rick Boucher in VA-09 but who’s still sitting on a five-figure cash stash and on the wrong end of a 22:1 CoH ratio.
SSP Daily Digest: 4/28 (Morning Edition)
SSP Daily Digest: 4/27 (Afternoon Edition)
• FL-Sen: It’s come down to brass tacks for Charlie Crist. With fast-approaching April 30 the drop-dead date for switching over to an independent bid for the Senate, he’s set a Thursday deadline for making up his mind on the matter. So, we’ll know soon one way or the other.
• MO-Sen, IL-Sen: Robin Carnahan found an excuse to avoid Barack Obama last time he was in Missouri, but, apparently realizing that she needs to rev up her base, she’s appearing with him this week when he visits an ethanol plant in Macon. Obama is also extending some of his cred to the currently very-wobbly Alexi Giannoulias, appearing with him downstate in Quincy on the same road swing.
• NC-Sen: There are two different polls today of the Democratic primary in the North Carolina Senate race, both promising a very close race (with the election one week from today, although a runoff may be in the offing). SurveyUSA’s first look at the field finds SoS Elaine Marshall leading ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham 23-19, with attorney Kenneth Lewis at 10, miscellaneous others adding up to 15, and 34% undecided. (Marshall has a 33-13 edge among liberals, while Cunningham has narrow leads among moderates and conservatives. And despite Cunningham’s relative youth, he’s in 3rd place among the 18-34 set; Kenneth Lewis actually leads among young voters, but barely makes a dent among older voters.) SurveyUSA also finds Richard Burr cruising in the GOP primary, at 59% with none of his opponents topping 6%. PPP (pdf) has similar numbers; Marshall leads Cunningham 26-23, with Lewis at 7, miscellaneous others at 10, and 34% undecided. (It’s a narrower spread from last month, where PPP saw Marshall leading Cunningham 23-17.)
• NY-Sen: Finally, someone put their head in the chopping block to go up against Chuck Schumer and his $21 million warchest. Republican political consultant and Fox commentator Jay Townsend will try to… well, you can’t even hope to contain Schumer, let alone beat him.
• UT-Sen: There’s yet another poll of the delegates to next month’s Republican convention in Utah, this time by Mason-Dixon on behalf of the Salt Lake Tribune. This one’s pretty bad for Bob Bennett too, suggesting he isn’t likely to even make it to the final round of convention balloting. He’s in third place among delegates’ expressed first choices. Mike Lee is at 37, Tim Bridgewater is at 20, and Bob Bennett is at 16, followed by Cherilyn Eagar at 11. (Inflammatory ex-Rep. Merrill Cook seems to have burned all of his bridges and then bagged and sold all the charcoal, as he’s polling at 1%.) Based on second choices, Lee would win the final round against Bridgewater 44-30, suggesting that Lee can’t nail it down at the convention and that he and Bridgewater would advance to the primary. (Lee wins a Lee/Bennett head-to-head 51-18.) Perhaps the most telling statistic, though, of what a thin slice of the hard right this sample is: of the delegates, 68% say they’re “supporters” of the Tea Party movement. Other Senator Orrin Hatch should be glad he’s not running this year, as he’s sufficiently impure that he’d be getting the same treatment: 71% say they’d be inclined to nominate someone other than Hatch.
• AL-Gov: Ah, nothing beats good old fashioned southern hospitality. Tim James (son of ex-Gov. Fob James), running for Alabama Governor, says he’ll save money by stopping offering the driver’s license test in other languages (because, apparently, complying with the Civil Rights Act of 1964 is for suckers). James’s tagline? “This is Alabama. We speak English.”
• GA-Gov: Wealthy teabagger Ray Boyd — who just recently showed up on the scene in the GOP gubernatorial field — balked at signing a Republican “loyalty oath” that’s apparently a mandatory part of running for office as a Republican in Georgia. So, Boyd took his $2 million ball, went home, and is now planning to run as an independent. A few percentage of right-wingers peeled off by Boyd may make all the difference for Democratic ex-Gov. Roy Barnes in a close election, so consider this good news.
• ME-Gov: Former state House speaker John Richardson abruptly dropped out of the Democratic field in the Maine governor’s race. Richardson (already getting little traction, if another candidate’s internal is to be believed) hit ‘eject’ after finding he wouldn’t qualify for Clean Election Act public funding, after the state ethics committee found his campaign fudged documents about qualifying contributions. That brings a little more clarity to the almost-opaque Democratic field, reducing it to state Sen. President Libby Mitchell, ex-AG Steve Rowe, ex-Dept. of Conservation head Pat McGowan, and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli.
• MN-Gov: This seems like a strange time for Ramsey Co. DA Susan Gaertner to drop out of the gubernatorial race, as she was one of the candidates who was ignoring the DFL nominating convention and planning to forge ahead in the primary regardless. Maybe she was counting on a R.T. Rybak endorsement and thus being the only female candidate in the primary? At any rate, Gaertner cited money woes as the main reason for her dropout; she stopped short of endorsing Margaret Anderson Kelliher but cited the historic nature of electing a female governor and said she didn’t want to be a spoiler for Kelliher.
• UT-Gov: Salt Lake County mayor Peter Corroon sounds like he’s looking to take a page from Brian Schweitzer and Kathleen Sebelius, two popular Dems who overcame their states’ reddish hue with a Republican as a running mate. Corroon didn’t name anyone specific, but said he has some GOPers on his Lt. Gov. short list.
• AL-05: I don’t know if this’ll help Rep. Parker Griffith much with the local rank-and-file (for instance, the Madison Co. Republican Committee, which refused to endorse him), but all of the state’s four other Republican House members endorsed him. Said the former Democrat and Deaniac: “They have seen first-hand how hard I’ve fought Nancy Pelosi’s liberal agenda that will ruin our country if we don’t stop it.”
• FL-25: Buried deep in a Roll Call article about the current state of play in the open seat in the 25th are some numbers from a month-old internal poll by Benenson taken for the DCCC. The poll may explain what got 2008 Democratic candidate Joe Garcia off the fence and back into the fight in the 25th: the poll had Garcia leading state Rep. David Rivera (looking like the likeliest GOP nominee) 38-35. As far as the GOP field goes, it doesn’t seem like rumored candidate state Sen. Alex Diaz de la Portilla is planning to show up; so far, Rivera’s main GOP opposition seems to be attorney Marili Cancio, who says she declined an invitation to the NRCC’s “Young Guns” program.
• HI-01: The DCCC is slapping down an $81K independent expenditure in the 1st. It’s a media buy, not on behalf of either Dem but against GOPer Charles Djou.
• KS-02: Too bad we don’t have much of a candidate on tap in the 2nd to exploit the carnage if the GOP primary goes nuclear. One-term Rep. Lynn Jenkins (who, believe it or not, hails from the “moderate” wing of the party despite a litany of right-wing-sounding gaffes) is getting a challenge from the teabag corps, in the form of state Sen. Dennis Pyle. Pyle has been threatening a bid for many months, but made it official today.
• MO-04: And here’s yet more cat fud, across the state line in Missouri’s 4th. While they haven’t done anything publicly, the NRCC is apparently starting to choose sides in the primary, favoring state Sen. Bill Stouffer over social conservative ex-state Rep. Vicki Hartzler. The NRCC arranged a sitdown between the two candidates, but Hartzler apparently blew it off after finding out the point of the NRCC’s meeting was to encourage her to drop out.
• WA-03: State Rep. Deb Wallace was the first Democrat to jump into the field after Rep. Brian Baird’s retirement; she got out fairly quickly once Denny Heck got in, realizing that she’d have to share the moderate side of the ledger with him and that she wouldn’t be able to compete with Heck’s financial resources. Wallace finally endorsed in the race today, opting for (no surprise here) Heck over the more liberal state Sen. Craig Pridemore (who just picked up the Sierra Club’s endorsement last week). Heck also has Baird’s endorsement, as well as that of Gov. Chris Gregoire.