Charlie Dent (R-inc): 45
John Callahan (D): 33
Other/undecided: 22
(MoE: ±6%)
Another long survey period and small sample size, but independent polls of House races are rare things. Obama has 55% favorables. Dent is at 53-29, Callahan at 43-13.
Tag: AZ-Sen
AZ-Sen: Glassman Beats Hayworth, McCain Under 50
Public Policy Polling (4/23-25, Arizona voters, 9/18-21/2009 in parens):
Rodney Glassman (D): 33 (25)
John McCain (R-inc): 49 (55)
Undecided: 18 (20)Rodney Glassman (D): 42
J.D. Hayworth (R): 39
Undecided: 19
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Is nothing sacred? It seems that even John McCain is in the doghouse with voters back in his home state, where is approval rating has fallen to an abysmal 34-55 (down from 42-48 in September). Perhaps not coincidentally, PPP also finds that, by a margin of 55% to 28%, voters consider him to be more of a “partisan voice for national Republicans” than an “independent voice for Arizona”. That might actually help John Sidney in the GOP primary, where his job approval is 48-39, but where a plurality of voters still consider him to be “too liberal”.
We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see where Hayworth stands in the primary.
SSP Daily Digest: 4/26
• AZ-Sen, AZ-Gov: The signature by Gov. Jan Brewer (which may have helped her survive the GOP primary, but may also hurt her in the general) of Arizona’s new aggressive anti-immigrant law was the key motivating factor in a new Democratic candidate getting into the Senate race: civil rights activist Randy Parraz. He’ll face Rodney Glassman in the Democratic primary. (Why not the, y’know, Arizona Governor’s race instead? Apparently Glassman looks like easier primary opposition than AG Terry Goddard in the governor’s race… and at any rate, John McCain and J.D. Hayworth have both been beating the war drums on immigration.) And here’s an interesting take on the immigration law: ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo just came out in opposition to it, saying, “I do not want people here, there in Arizona, pulled over because you look like should be pulled over.” If even Tom Tancredo thinks you’re doing it wrong… you’re probably doing it wrong.
• CT-Sen: Linda McMahon’s campaign doesn’t seem to be doing anything illegal here, but there’s still no good way to spin this: the campaign has been offering students an extra $5 bounty (on top of a flat hourly rate) for every Republican registered during a Univ. of Connecticut voter registration drive. It’s a practice that the DOJ has frowned upon.
• IL-Sen: In the wake of the seizure of the Broadway Bank, Alexi Giannoulias wasted no time in getting an explanatory ad on the air, laying it out in easy-to-grasp points: one, he hadn’t worked there in years and when he left it was fine, two, the broader economy took the bank down, and three, speaking of that economic downturn, don’t vote for unemployment-benefits-denying Mark Kirk.
• MD-Sen: OK, maybe all those Barb Mikulski retirement rumors will finally go away. She just had her campaign’s official kickoff event on Friday. She has 24 times the cash of her likeliest Republican opponent, Queen Anne’s Co. Commissioner Eric Wargotz.
• NC-Sen: Elon University’s out with another poll; they still aren’t doing head-to-heads, but have some assorted other numbers that Richard Burr would probably rather not see. His approvals (among flat-out everybody, not even RVs) are 28/37 and 26% say he “deserves re-election” with 44% saying “time for a new person.”
• NV-Sen: A poll for the Nevada News Bureau performed by PMI finds Sue Lowden leading the pack in the GOP Senate primary, at 41. Danny Tarkanian is at 24, Sharron Angle is at 17, and “someone else” is at 18. The poll was taken on the 22nd, shortly after Lowden laid out her support for trading chickens in exchange for poultices and tinctures.
• NY-Sen-B: Long-time Rockland Co. Exec Scott Vanderhoef has decided not to pursue a run against Kirsten Gillibrand, after having spent a month in exploratory mode, saying the money’s just not there. Vanderhoef probably found he didn’t have the name rec outside of Rockland Co. to have an advantage against the odds and ends in the GOP primary, let alone in the general.
• UT-Sen: Another poll of GOP delegates for the convention in Utah isn’t as bad for Bob Bennett as the one leaked to Dave Weigel last week, but it still looks pretty bad for him. Mike Lee leads the way among first-choice votes at 31%, followed by Bennett at 22% (and then Tim Bridgewater at 17% and Cherilyn Eagar at 10%). 41% of delegates say they will “absolutely not” vote for Bennett, so even if Bennett picks up the other 59%, he still can’t nail down the nomination at the convention (as there’s a 60% threshold).
• WA-Sen: Everyone seemed a little taken by surprise by Friday’s SurveyUSA poll of the Washington Senate race, which has non-candidate (for now) Dino Rossi leading Patty Murray 52-42 (and leading the various no-name GOPers actively in the race by 2 or 3 points). Even the Rossi camp is downplaying it, saying that their internal polling places Murray in the lead – which is an odd strategy for someone who got gifted an outlying poll, unless either he’s trying to rope-a-dope Murray into complacency or privately cursing the results saying “aw crap, now I have to run for Senate.” One of the no-namers, motivational speaker Chris Widener, got out of the race on Friday, which may also portend a Rossi run (or just having taken a stark look at his own finances). Murray’s camp may have gotten advance warning of the SurveyUSA poll, as on Friday they leaked their own internal from Fairbank Maslin giving Murray a 49-41 lead over Rossi, very consistent with R2K’s recent poll.
• IL-Gov: Oh, goody. Scott Lee Cohen, having bailed out/gotten booted off the Democratic ticket as Lt. Governor nominee after his criminal record became news, still has a political issue that needs scratching. He’s announcing that he’s going to run an independent bid for Governor instead. Considering how thoroughly his dirty laundry has been aired, he seems likely to poll in the low single digits; I have no idea whether his candidacy (which now appeals mostly only to the steroid-addled pawnbroker demographic) is more harmful to Pat Quinn, Bill Brady, or just the world’s general sense of decency.
• MI-Gov: When I heard a few weeks ago that Geoffrey Fieger (the trial lawyer best known for defending Jack Kevorkian and second-best-known for his awful turn as 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee) was pondering another gubernatorial run, I laughed it off. The new EPIC-MRA poll makes it seem a bit more serious, though… which, in turn, if he won the primary, would pretty much foreclose any Democratic shot at winning the general. They only polled the Democratic primary and find, thanks to name rec within the Detroit metro area, Fieger is actually comfortably in the lead at 28%. Andy Dillon is at 20, Virg Bernero is at 13, Alma Wheeler Smith is at 8, other is at 2, and 29% are undecided. Fieger hasn’t moved much to act on his interest, though, and has only three weeks to collect the necessary 15,000 signatures to qualify.
• FL-24: Karen Diebel earned the backing of Tom Tancredo in the GOP primary in the 24th, focusing on (with Tancredo, what else?) in the immigration issue. It seems less of a pro-Diebel endorsement than more of a slap against her GOP opponent Craig Miller, though; in a 2006 Miami Herald op-ed, Miller (who was at that point chairman of the National Restaurant Association) came out pretty solidly on the “cheap labor” side of the Republican split on immigration.
• GA-12: Democrats looking for an upgrade from ex-state Sen. Regina Thomas (who raised $10K last quarter and has $4K CoH) for a primary challenge to recalcitrant Blue Dog John Barrow are going to have to keep looking. State Sen. Lester Jackson decided to take a pass, and will stay neutral in the Barrow/Thomas race. He’ll focus instead of supporting the Senate bid of Labor Comm. Michael Thurmond (another rumored, but no-longer, challenger to Barrow).
• LA-03: Bobby Jindal just appointed Scott Angelle, the state’s Sec. of Natural Resources, to the vacant position of Lt. Governor. Why is this filed under LA-03? Angelle was rumored to be one of the top contenders to run for the 3rd (although it was unclear whether he was going to do it as a Dem or a GOPer… Angelle was a Dem in the legislature, but appointed by GOP Gov. Jindal to his cabinet). With Angelle saying he’ll return to his job at Natural Resources after a permanent replacement is elected, that means that former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty well locked-in as the GOP nominee in the 3rd, and the Dems aren’t likely to get an upgrade from attorney Ravi Sangisetty, making this open seat a very likely GOP pickup. (H/t GOPVOTER.)
• NY-01: Randy Altschuler got the endorsement from the Suffolk County Conservative Party on Friday, which guarantees him a place on the ballot if he wants it. He’ll still need to overcome Chris Cox and George Demos in the competitive three-way moneybags duel in the GOP primary (where the county GOP recently switched its endorsement from Altschuler to Cox). It’s unclear whether he’d keep the Conservative line if he lost the GOP primary, as that would create a NY-23 type situation and pretty much assure Rep. Tim Bishop’s safety. (Unlike the patchwork of counties in the upstate districts, all of the 1st is within Suffolk.)
• NY-29: The GOP would really, really like to have a special election in the 29th, despite David Paterson’s apparent intention to play out the clock until November (and prevent a possible GOP pickup, given the difference in strength between the likely candidates). Several GOP party chairs within the district are preparing a lawsuit that would force a special election; the state GOP plans to assist.
• OH-02: Bad news for Jean Schmidt: although she got the Hamilton Co. GOP’s endorsement in the previous two elections, she’s going to have to proceed without it this year. They’re staying neutral as she faces several primary challengers, most notably Warren Co. Commissioner Mike Kilburn.
• PA-12: In battling independent expenditures in the 12th, the GOP went large, as the NRCC plunked down $235K on media buys. The DCCC also spent $16K on media buys.
• SC-04: The dean at Bob Jones University (the crown jewel in the buckle of the Bible Belt, in Greenville in the 4th), Robert Taylor, has announced he’s supporting Trey Gowdy in the GOP primary instead of incumbent Rep. Bob Inglis. The occasionally-moderate Inglis (more stylistically than in actual voting substance, though) faces at least three right-wing competitors in the primary, but could run into trouble if he doesn’t clear 50% and gets forced into a runoff with one of them.
• WV-01: There are dueling internal polls in the 1st, in the Democratic primary. State Sen. Mike Oliverio was first to release a poll, saying he led Rep. Alan Mollohan 41-33. (One caveat: Oliverio’s pollster is Orion Strategies, owned by Curtis Wilkerson, who also just happens to be Oliverio’s campaign manager.) Mollohan struck back with a poll from Frederick Polls giving him a 45-36 lead over Oliverio, with the primary fast approaching on May 11.
• MA-AG: Despite it now being widely known that Martha Coakley has a glass jaw (or what’s something more fragile than glass? what do they make those fake bottles out of that they use in bar fights in the movies?), she may actually get re-elected Attorney General without facing any GOP opposition whatsoever this fall. Of course, that may have something to do with the fact that the GOP’s entire bench in Massachusetts just got elected to the Senate.
• Pennsylvania: The Philadelphia Inquirer has an interesting look at the changes in registration in Pennsylvania over the last decade. The Democratic Party grew substantially in the state’s east, gaining 550,000 registrations up to 4.3 million voters. The GOP shrank by 103,000 registrations down to 3.1 million votes. The Dems lost 20,000 voters in the state’s southwest, though; in 2002, 27.8% of the state’s Dems were in the Pittsburgh area, but that’s down to 23.8%. Contrast that with the Philadelphia metro area: in its five counties, the number of Republicans dropped 13.5%, from a million to 873,000.
• Redistricting: Here’s the last redistricting resource you’ll ever need: a handy map showing congressional and legislative redistricting procedures for all 50 states. There’s also an accompanying document (pdf) which goes into remarkable detail about the various processes, and even contains an appendix of some of the ugliest current gerrymanders.
Rasmussen Reports, You Decide, Vol. 14
AZ-Sen (4/13, likely voters, no trendlines):
Rodney Glassman (D): 32
John McCain (R-inc): 54
Some other: 8
Not sure: 6Rodney Glassman (D): 39
J.D. Hayworth (R): 48
Some other: 7
Not sure: 7
(MoE: ±4.5%)
AZ-Sen (R primary) (4/13, likely voters, 3/16 in parentheses):
John McCain (R-inc): 47 (48)
J.D. Hayworth (R): 42 (41)
Some other: 2 (3)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4%)
CA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/11 in parentheses):
Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 43 (43)
Tom Campbell (R): 41 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 10 (10)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)
Carly Fiorina (R): 38 (40)
Some other: 7 (4)
Not sure: 13 (10)Barbara Boxer (D-inc): 42 (46)
Chuck DeVore (R): 39 (40)
Some other: 8 (4)
Not sure: 12 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Gov (4/14, likely voters, 3/4 in parentheses):
John Hickenlooper (D): 42 (42)
Scott McInnis (R): 48 (48)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 6 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CO-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 41 (39)
Jane Norton (R): 46 (48)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 8 (6)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40 (38)
Ken Buck (R): 44 (44)
Some other: 3 (6)
Not sure: 12 (11)Michael Bennet (D-inc): 39 (40)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (43)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 12 (11)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (42)
Jane Norton (R): 49 (44)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 8 (9)Andrew Romanoff (D): 37 (40)
Ken Buck (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 13 (13)Andrew Romanoff (D): 38 (41)
Tom Wiens (R): 45 (41)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 11 (13)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Gov (4/1, likely voters, 2/1 in parentheses):
Ned Lamont (D): 37 (40)
Tom Foley (R): 44 (37)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 13 (14)Ned Lamont (D): 41 (41)
Michael Fedele (R): 38 (33)
Some other: 9 (8)
Not sure: 12 (18)Dan Malloy (D): 35 (37)
Tom Foley (R): 44 (36)
Some other: 8 (10)
Not sure: 14 (18)Dan Malloy (D): 40 (36)
Michael Fedele (R): 37 (35)
Some other: 7 (9)
Not sure: 16 (21)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
CT-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Richard Blumenthal (D): 52 (58)
Rob Simmons (R): 38 (32)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 6 (7)Richard Blumenthal (D): 55 (60)
Linda McMahon (R): 35 (31)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 6 (7)Richard Blumenthal (D): 58 (57)
Peter Schiff (R): 32 (27)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 6 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
FL-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters, 3/18 in parentheses):
Marco Rubio (R): 57 (56)
Charlie Crist (R): 28 (34)
Some other: 3 (1)
Not sure: 12 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 38 (37)
Bill Brady (R): 45 (47)
Some other: 7 (6)
Not sure: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
IL-Sen (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Alexi Giannoulias (D): 37 (44)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)
Some other: 8 (5)
Not sure: 13 (10)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
KY-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/2 in parentheses):
Jack Conway (D): 36 (34)
Rand Paul (R): 50 (49)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 11 (13)Jack Conway (D): 32 (31)
Trey Grayson (R): 52 (49)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 11 (14)Dan Mongiardo (D): 37 (34)
Rand Paul (R): 52 (51)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 8 (12)Dan Mongiardo (D): 33 (33)
Trey Grayson (R): 53 (46)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 9 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
LA-Sen (4/, likely voters, 3/10 in parentheses):
Charlie Melancon (D): 36 (34)
David Vitter (R-inc): 52 (57)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MA-Gov (4/5, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Deval Patrick (D): 35 (35)
Charlie Baker (R): 27 (32)
Tim Cahill (I): 23 (19)
Not sure: 15 (14)Deval Patrick (D): 38 (34)
Christy Mihos (R): 15 (19)
Tim Cahill (I): 33 (30)
Not sure: 14 (16)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
MO-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 42 (41)
Roy Blunt (R): 48 (47)
Some other: 3 (4)
Not sure: 7 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NH-Gov (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
John Lynch (D-inc): 47 (50)
John Stephen (R): 37 (35)
Some other: 5 (2)
Not sure: 11 (14)John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (51)
Jack Kimball (R): 34 (32)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 12 (13)John Lynch (D-inc): 50 (54)
Karen Testerman (R): 33 (28)
Some other: 6 (5)
Not sure: 11 (14)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NH-Sen (4/7, likely voters, 3/8 in parentheses):
Paul Hodes (D): 35 (37)
Kelly Ayotte (R): 50 (47)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 11 (12)Paul Hodes (D): 37 (36)
Bill Binnie (R): 49 (46)
Some other: 4 (4)
Not sure: 10 (14)Paul Hodes (D): 39 (42)
Ovide Lamontagne (R): 44 (38)
Some other: 7 (5)
Not sure: 11 (15)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Gov (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):
Rory Reid (D): 43 (44)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 45 (36)
Some other: 8 (15)
Not sure: 4 (4)Rory Reid (D): 34 (35)
Brian Sandoval (R): 55 (53)
Some other: 6 (7)
Not sure: 4 (5)Rory Reid (D): 38 (37)
Mike Montandon (R): 45 (42)
Some other: 9 (13)
Not sure: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
NV-Sen (3/31, likely voters, 3/3 in parentheses):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (38)
Sue Lowden (R): 54 (51)
Some other: 4 (7)
Not sure: 2 (3)Harry Reid (D-inc): 42 (37)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 49 (50)
Some other: 6 (9)
Not sure: 2 (4)Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (38)
Sharron Angle (R): 51 (46)
Some other: 6 (11)
Not sure: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
PA-Sen (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 40 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 50 (49)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 6 (7)Joe Sestak (D): 36 (37)
Pat Toomey (R): 47 (42)
Some other: 5 (7)
Not sure: 12 (15)
(MoE: ±3%)
PA-Sen (D primary) (4/12, likely voters, 3/15 in parentheses):
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44 (48)
Joe Sestak (D): 42 (37)
Some other: 4 (5)
Not sure: 10 (9)
(MoE: ±5%)
UT-Gov (4/8, likely voters, no trendlines):
Peter Corroon (D): 29
Gary Herbert (R-inc): 57
Some other: 4
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±3%)
UT-Sen (R primary) (4/8, likely voters):
Bob Bennett (R-inc): 37
Tim Bridgewater (R): 14
Mike Lee (R): 14
Merrill Cook (R): 6
Cherilyn Eagar (R): 4
Some other: 3
Not sure: 21
(MoE: ±4%)
WA-Sen (4/6, likely voters, 3/9 in parentheses):
Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (46)
Dino Rossi (R): 46 (49)
Some other: 3 (3)
Not sure: 4 (2)Patty Murray (D-inc): 48 (48)
Don Benton (R): 40 (37)
Some other: 4 (3)
Not sure: 8 (12)Patty Murray (D-inc): 47 (49)
Clint Didier (R): 37 (30)
Some other: 5 (6)
Not sure: 11 (15)Patty Murray (D-inc): 46 (47)
Chris Widener (R): 37 (32)
Some other: 5 (5)
Not sure: 12 (16)Patty Murray (D-inc): 45 (NA)
Paul Akers (R): 37 (NA)
Some other: 5 (NA)
Not sure: 13 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
SSP Daily Digest: 4/7 (Morning Edition)
Make the fellow scared to come out of his house. That’s the only way that you’re going to win. That’s the only way you’re going to get these people’s attention. You’ve got to put pressure on them and make them understand that you’ve got to come back and live the laws that you establish. Don’t let them be a ruling class elite. You’ve got to let them know that the clock’s ticking.
SSP Daily Digest: 4/6 (Afternoon Edition)
• AZ-Sen: Maybe she was scared off by that R2K poll that had her down more than 20-odd points? Nan Stockholm Walden, a wealthy attorney and businesswoman who had been the subject of DSCC interest as a candidate in Arizona, decided not to run. That gives Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman a pretty clear path to the nomination (assuming he runs; he’s still in exploratory mode).
• CT-Sen: Did you know that Linda McMahon actually held (until now) a political position, in addition to, of course, all the important work she does at WWE? She was on Connecticut’s Board of Education (an appointed position, courtesy of Jodi Rell), but just resigned from that role. She says that there are too many restrictions on political activities by board members for her to be able to remain in that position, as she tries to get the GOP Senate nomination.
• SD-Sen: John Thune may have dodged having to run against a Democrat in November, but he won’t be running purely unopposed. He’s still facing off against an independent, perennial candidate Kurt Evans.
• WI-Sen, WI-Gov: I had no idea that St. Norbert was the patron saint of fucked-up polls. A poll from Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College is tilted even further in the Republican direction than recent offerings from Rasmussen and the decidedly conservative Wisconsin Policy Research Institute. They find Russ Feingold losing to Tommy Thompson 45-33 (with 14% for an independent/third party, whoever that might be), and beating Generic R by only 40-37. Their gubernatorial numbers find Tom Barrett losing to Scott Walker 44-28 and to Mark Neumann 43-29. Even the GOP primary numbers seem screwy, with underdog Neumann almost even with Walker, who leads 24-23.
• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman rummaged around in her purse and found another $20 million to throw on the table, bringing her personal contributions to the race up to a whopping $59 million. Despite her big lead over Steve Poizner in the primary, she may need to prepare to shore things up, as Poizner has been telegraphing that he’s going to start going hard at her on the hot-button issue of immigration, in a last-ditch effort to get the state’s right-wingers to pay some attention to him.
• GA-12: There were some poorly sourced rumors yesterday that Rep. John Barrow — a conservadem in a swing district facing a primary challenge and the ire of a large swath of his African-American constituency after his HCR “no” vote — was going to switch parties. Barrow now says he was never even contemplating that, though.
• KS-03: After the Kansas City Star reported last week that Stephene Moore was going to run to replace her husband, Dennis, in the 3rd, she started acting coy about it (despite insider assurances that it was a done deal). As expected, though, today she made it official, filing a glaring hole in this R+3 open seat.
• LA-03: It looks like the NRCC is finally getting a top-tier participant in the open seat race in the 3rd (despite that winning it won’t be much of a prize, as the 3rd is poised to vaporize in 2012 redistricting). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer says he’ll announce his candidacy very soon. Probably the surest indication that Downer is serious is that state Rep. Nickie Monica, who may have been the strongest GOPer in the field to date, now says he’s getting out of the race to make way for Downer. With attorney Ravi Sangisetty the only Dem willing to stick his neck out for this one, this one’s pretty thoroughly in the GOP column.
• MN-06: State Sen. Tarryl Clark has been putting up some monster fundraising numbers against Michele Bachmann this cycle; I guess that’s what happens when you run against one of the nation’s top lightning rods for teh crazy. She pulled in $505K last quarter, bringing her to $1.1 million in total receipts this cycle. Unfortunately, Clark (or her primary opponent Maureen Reed, who’s also raised well but hasn’t released Q1 numbers yet) will likely have to contend with the presence of spoiler Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson. Anderson pulled in 10% of the vote in 2008 (while Elwyn Tinklenberg lost by only 3%), and he’s seeking the IP’s endorsement again.
• NH-01: RNC committee member Sean Mahoney made a big show out of resigning his post, ostensibly out of disgust with the Michael Steele administration and its free-spending, strip-clubbing ways. Speculation, though, is that Mahoney is planning to run in the GOP primary in the 1st (where Manchester mayor Frank Guinta is considered frontrunner, although so-so fundraising has diminished his luster a bit), which would require him to resign anyway. Mahoney isn’t promising anything on that front yet, though.
• NY-29: The Democrats have literally chosen Some Dude as their standard bearer in the 29th. The party chairs in the eight counties in the district issued a statement where they said they’ve chosen a consensus nominee to replace Eric Massa in the special election that may or may not happen. However, they neglected to actually say who that candidate might be. We’ll know the masked man’s identity next week.
• TN-03: A Huck divided against itself cannot stand? In a prime example of one hand not knowing what the other is doing, HuckPAC (Mike Huckabee’s national financial arm) and Team Huck Tennessee (the local grassroots operation) are endorsing different candidates in the GOP primary in the 3rd. Team Huck is endorsing former state GOP chair Robin Smith, while HuckPAC (and presumably, Huckabee himself) is going with attorney Chuck Fleischmann.
• TN-08: State Sen. Roy Herron had another fine fundraising quarter as he tries to keep this open seat in Democratic hands; he pulled in $490K last quarter, leaving him with more than $1 million cash on hand. It’s not an expensive district, media-wise, but he has some strong fundraising competition from humble gospel-singing farmer agribusiness mogul Stephen Fincher, who pulled in over $300K himself and is sitting on $820K CoH.
• PA-St. Sen.: As if the Pennsylvania legislature couldn’t be held in any lower esteem, here’s another fresh scandal. Luckily, this one seems to be falling on the Republican side of the aisle: state Sen. Jane Orie, the body’s third-ranking GOPer, was just accused by a grand jury of repeatedly using her staff for political campaigns on the state’s dime (include the campaign of her sister, state Supreme Court justice Joan Orie Melvin). Charges are expected, but Orie is shrugging it off, saying it’s a politically motivated smear by Democratic Allegheny Co. DA Stephen Zappala.
• Filings: The filing deadline in Missouri has passed, on March 30. Rep. Roy Blunt wound up with (count ’em) 10 Republican primary opponents in the Senate race, although state Sen. Chuck Purgason seems the only one worth paying attention to. The number of GOPers vying to take on Ike Skelton in MO-04 also reached the double digits. Probably the biggest surprise and disappointment was in MO-09: not that the DCCC would likely have strongly contested this district that they barely lost in 2008 when it was open, but not a single Democrat showed up to run in this race.
• Teabaggers: Here’s a nice catch from Ruy Teixeira: teabagging is about as popular as socialism. In slightly-differently-worded questions from two different 2010 polls, Gallup found that 37% had a favorable opinion of “the Tea Party movement” (including 14% of Democrats), while 36% had a positive image of “socialism” (including 17% of Republicans?!?).
SSP Daily Digest: 4/6 (Morning Edition)
SSP Daily Digest: 4/5 (Afternoon Edition)
• AZ-Sen: Looks like the Maverick has finally been broken (as he’s decided that it’s preferable to spend six years chewing his cud while fenced in the GOP pasture, instead of getting sent prematurely to the glue factory). In the face of a potentially serious primary from the right from J.D. Hayworth, John McCain says not only is he no longer a maverick, but he “never considered himself a maverick.” (Except for in all those campaign ads from two years ago?) In response, Hayworth said McCain is trying to “encourage amnesia.”
• CA-Sen, CA-Gov: There’s a new LA Times/USC poll of the two major races in California, with a mixed bag of results for Democrats. Like most pollsters, they find that Republican Meg Whitman has pulled into a small lead over Jerry Brown in the governor’s race, thanks to her nonstop deluge of self-funded advertising; she leads Brown 44-41, while she leads Steve Poizner in the GOP primary 60-20. On the Senate side, Barbara Boxer leads a Generic Republican by a surprisingly wide 48-34. Polling Generic R seems pretty weird, though, considering that there are only two likely opponents for her: Tom Campbell leads Carly Fiorina in the GOP primary 29-25, with Chuck DeVore lagging at 9. One other bit of good news for Dems: by a 46-29 margin, voters prefer to back a candidate who backed health care reform.
• CO-Sen: Michael Bennet is playing it safe, making plans for a petition drive to make sure his name is on the ballot in November. He needs at least 30% at the Democratic state convention to qualify, but his Plan B seems to be an acknowledgment that he may be facing a rough time at the convention too. Remember that he lost at the caucus level to former state House speaker Andrew Romanoff (whose main source of strength seems to be insiders and activists, rather than the broader population).
• IN-Sen: CQ takes a look at the NRSC’s private teeth-gnashing over the possibility that kooky ex-Rep. John Hostettler might beat ex-Sen. Dan Coats in the primary, something that can’t be ruled out in an anti-establishment year like this one. They’d then have to decide whether they want to financially prop up Hostettler, a legendarily poor fundraiser who’s relied on shoestring campaigns and religious right ground troops. Still, a reasonably competent Hostettler ought to be able to make short work of Coats in the GOP primary, given the amount of material he has to work with: for instance, it turns out that Coats, when lobbying for King & Spaulding, lobbied Congress in favor of cap and trade, the same legislation he claims he now opposes.
• NV-Sen: If there’s one reason not to quite count out Harry Reid yet, it’s his ability to bring in the campaign cash. He brought in more than $1.5 million for the quarter, giving him more than $10 million in receipts so far this cycle. Sue Lowden, ostensibly the GOP’s top contender, says she raised about $500K and will match that dollar-for-dollar from her own personal stash. Danny Tarkanian raised $445K last quarter.
• NY-Sen-B (pdf): These numbers are a little stale, but we found there were some more useful numbers buried in that Marist poll from last week where the topline was just the usual rigamarole about the Kirsten Gillibrand vs. George Pataki matchup that’s very unlikely to happen (especially not if Al D’Amato has anything to say about it). They also tested some head-to-heads with the lesser GOPers who are actually in the race: Gillibrand beats Bruce Blakeman 54-25, Joe DioGuardi 54-27, and David Malpass 54-25. They also looked at the GOP primary, finding DioGuardi winning it with 18, followed by Blakeman at 10, Malpass at 9, and non-candidate Dan Senor at 4. A permutation including Pataki finds Pataki at 62, with DioGuardi at 7, Blakeman at 4, and Malpass and Senor at 2. In other news, Gillibrand picked up an endorsement today from one of her biggest skeptics, Assemblyman and Kings Co. Dem chair Vito Lopez. Lopez had been considering backing Harold Ford Jr., way back in those heady days of February.
• WA-Sen: Dino Rossi is still saying he’s “completely undecided” about running for Senate, but will do it if he thinks he has a “50% chance” of winning. Here’s one more bit that might help move his decision along, though: financially, he’d be starting from scratch against Patty Murray, who raked in another $1 million last quarter, bringing her total war chest to $5.9 million.
• AL-Gov: I gather from the comments that SSP is full of mustache aficionados, and this news might prove heartbreaking to them: Ron Sparks shaved off his legendary ‘stache. He says this was a spur-of-the-moment decision at the barber shop (and hopefully not the result of thorough focus grouping?). I just hope Travis Childers doesn’t decide to follow suit.
• NY-Gov: Wealthy businessman Carl Paladino has decided to go ahead with his teabaggish-sounding campaign for Governor, kicking off his bid today in Buffalo. He’ll be running in the GOP primary, although he’d previously made noises about a possible independent run. Unfortunately, his rollout might be overshadowed by other news today… that he had a daughter with his mistress 10 years ago, and kept the child secret from his wife until last year.
• OH-Gov: In response to pressure to release his financials, John Kasich released his 2008 tax returns. Kasich earned $615K from now-kaput Lehman Brothers in 2008, including $183K base and a $432K bonus (but no “golden parachute” as Lehman Brothers collapsed). Oh, by the way, he also earned $265K as a Fox News commentator, $166K in speaking fees, $62K as an associate for Schottenstein Property Group, $45K as an Ohio State Univ. lecturer, $77K for being on the board of directors of two companies, and $122K in interest and dividends. Just your average teabagging Joe Lunchpail.
• HI-01: Charles Djou is trying to get some mileage out of the fact that neither Ed Case nor Colleen Hanabusa lives in HI-01. This kind of thing usually doesn’t matter much even in most other states, and seems to matter even less in Hawaii, though, where the island of Oahu gets split between the two districts and no one seems to care that Mazie Hirono lives in the 1st instead of HI-02.
• CO-04: Rep. Betsy Markey is near the top of most people’s vulnerable Dems lists, especially after her pro-HCR vote, but her cash haul may go along way toward allaying fears. She pulled in $505K, with $355K of that coming between Mar. 21 (the HCR vote) and Mar. 31. Her vote (plus being in Sarah Palin’s sorta-metaphorical crosshairs) seems to have helped, not hurt. Likely GOP opponent Cory Gardner raised only $75K last quarter after the HCR vote.
• ND-AL: One GOPer who is doing well on the fundraising front is state Rep. Rick Berg, who pulled in $483K in the first quarter. $330K of that came in the last 10 days of the quarter, although that seems to have more to do with his winning the state party’s endorsement rather than the HCR vote. Most of the rest of that took the form of $100K from his own pocket. Between this and the downdraft from John Hoeven at the top of the ballot, looks like Rep. Earl Pomeroy’s in for a real race this year.
• PA-06: Doug Pike picked up another labor endorsement, and it’s a big one: the AFL-CIO. They also backed Paul Kanjorski in the 11th, who’s being challenged by Corey O’Brien in the primary.
• RI-01: Here’s one more huge House Democratic fundraising haul, although this isn’t a race that the DCCC has been sweating too hard. Providence mayor David Cicilline pulled in a huge $725K (although some of that was checks re-written away from his mayoral fund to his newly-established House fund). His main Democratic rival, former state party chair William Lynch, raised $230K (including $100K of his own money).
• TX-17: Bill Flores pulled in an endorsement that will help in his GOP primary runoff against Rob Curnock, from perhaps the most unlikable man in the entirety of American politics, ex-Sen. Phil Gramm. In fact, that district may be conservative enough that it might still be a positive in the general.
• LA-LG: Republican SoS Jay Dardenne’s plan for an easy upgrade to the position of Lt. Governor (left vacant by Mitch Landrieu’s move to mayor of New Orleans) ran into a bit of a snag. He’s facing GOP primary opposition now from the state GOP chair, Roger Villere.
• CA-Init: Proposition 15 looks to be the only interesting initiative on the June primary ballot in California, and it lays some important groundwork for countering the flood of corporate money into elections. The Fair Elections Act, as it’s called, is a pilot program for public financing of state races; if passed, it’ll publicly fund the 2014 and 2018 Secretary of State races, which, if successful, could lead to a broader system.
• Fundraising: There are a number of other fundraising roundups today, courtesy of National Journal’s Reid Wilson and also the crew at TPM. Other highlights include Tom Campbell, Pat Toomey, Bob Dold!, Colleen Hanabusa, Bruce O’Donoghue, and various OR-Gov contestants.
• Teabaggers: Ed Kilgore continues his hot streak of dismantling the myth of the teabaggers, pointing to today’s Gallup/USA Today poll as more evidence that they’re nothing more than louder, angrier Republicans (who’d like access to a time machine). Only 7% say they’re Democrats, and while many say they’re independents, all evidence suggests they’re not from the center but those indies who think the GOP is too establishment, too liberal, or just too unsalvageable.
• RNC: You might remember several weeks ago the RNC lost a case in the D.C. District Court, squelching their desires for unlimited “soft money” contributions, which they felt they should be able to do in the wake of Citizens United. The RNC has decided to go ahead and appeal the case to the Supreme Court, although it doesn’t seem likely it’ll be decided in time for this year’s general election. (If you’re wondering why the case is bypassing the DC Circuit, McCain-Feingold allows challenges to it to leapfrog directly from the trial level to SCOTUS.)
• Census: Here’s an interesting tidbit: despite her early anti-Census fearmongering, Michele Bachmann’s district is actually well outpacing much of the nation on Census form return rates. Counties in her district have had an especially high return rate, ranging from 68-71% (compared with the current national average of 50%). Perhaps Republicans have decided it’s better in the long-term to, y’know, get conservative parts of the country to get accurately represented, rather than to try to appeal to the black-helicopters fringes, if Karl Rove cutting an ad urging Census participation is any indication.
• O2B: Finally, over at the Great Orange Satan, there’s an open call for nominations for the Orange to Blue program. Stop by and suggest some names of candidates who should get the netroots’ financial help this year.
AZ-Sen: McCain With Comfortable Lead Over Hayworth
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (3/29-31, likely voters):
John McCain (R-inc): 52
J.D. Hayworth (R): 37
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5%)Bruce Babbitt (D): 42
John McCain (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 10Gabrielle Giffords (D): 34
John McCain (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 13Rodney Glassman (D): 33
John McCain (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 15Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 21
John McCain (R-inc): 57
Undecided: 22Bruce Babbitt (D): 42
J.D. Hayworth (R): 43
Undecided: 15Gabrielle Giffords (D): 36
J.D. Hayworth (R): 49
Undecided: 15Rodney Glassman (D): 37
J.D. Hayworth (R): 48
Undecided: 15Nan Stockholm Walden (D): 22
J.D. Hayworth (R): 53
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4%)
Steve Singiser already got there first with the “good news! for John McCain!” joke, so I suppose I’ll just play it straight. McMaverick is not only leading all Democratic opposition in the general election, but also defeating right-wing insurgent ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth in the primary by a 15-point margin (some other pollsters have shown it a closer race, in the 10-point ballpark).
Democrats have been increasingly intrigued by this race, out of the possibility that they might have a shot here if the odious Hayworth somehow wins the primary. This poll shows that Hayworth still wins the general (even against ex-Gov. and ex-Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt, probably the state’s most prominent Dem and not one who’s expressed any interest in returning to electoral politics), but Dems do poll much better against him. Most notably, their likeliest nominee, young Tucson city councilor Rodney Glassman, loses to McCain by 19 to McCain but 11 to Hayworth. Glassman also fares slightly better than Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, so this should hopefully disabuse everyone of the idea that she should run (and thus open up her competitive seat in AZ-08).
Glassman still faces a possible primary against businesswoman and Democratic party insider Nan Stockholm Walden, who’s scoping out the race; Walden doesn’t fare well, but that’s because she’s virtually unknown, even compared with the little-known Glassman (her favorables are 11/3, while Glassman’s at 23/15… compare that with John McCain, at 47/46, with only 7% with no opinion).
RaceTracker Wiki: AZ-Sen
SSP Daily Digest: 4/1 (Morning Edition)
The daily digest is so hunormous today that we had to CHOP IT IN HALF!
On the GOP side of things, John McCain says he raised $2.2 million in the first quarter and has $4.5m on hand. Primary opponent J.D. Hayworth, meanwhile, seems like he hasn’t been doing quite so hot on the money front.