Swing State Project

• AK-Sen: I’ve got plenty of hearsay and conjecture. Those are kinds of evidence. (Ah, Lionel Hutz, always good for a quote.) Anyway, there’s lots of those kinds of evidence burning up the Twittersphere lately: maybe most significantly, the rumor that Alaska Dems are looking into getting Scott McAdams to stand down and inserting ex-Gov. Tony Knowles (the 2004 loser against Murkowski) to run in his place. Under state law, McAdams would have until 48 days before election day to drop out, but the wisdom of such a move seem uncertain, as McAdams is at least a fresh face and Knowles has two-time-loser taint. Also out there: that Lisa Murkowski is looking into some sort of independent run, which would probably have to take write-in form (although Taniel points out major practical problems with that). One other very weird alternative mentioned for Murkowski: commandeering the secessionist Alaska Independence Party. UPDATE: The Alaska state Dem party is about to hold a conference call with McAdams in which he lays out a path to victory, which certainly suggests that they aren’t abandoning him.

• NV-Sen: Is Sharron Angle following Michele Bachmann down that dark and winding path to… well, she’s already in Crazy Town, so whatever’s around the next bend beyond that. In an interview with a right-wing talk show host Bill Manders last year, Angle agreed with Manders that there were “domestic enemies” “in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.”

• WI-Sen: Here’s one more installment in the ongoing story of teabaggers adopting the “government money for me, not for thee” line of argumentation (a la Clint Didier and Stephen Fincher’s long history of happily accepting farm subsidies), disregarding the jaw-dropping hypocrisy that goes with it. It’s been revealed that Ron Johnson’s company, Paccur, got a $2.5 million government loan to pay for a 40,000 square foot expansion to its facilities. The revelation comes about a week after he said in an interview: “I have never lobbied for some special treatment or for a government payment… When you subsidize things…it doesn’t work through the free market system very well.”

• MD-Gov: Here’s a poll showing better-than-usual results for incumbent Dem governor Martin O’Malley, locked in a rematch battle with ex-Gov. Bob Ehrlich. The OpinionWorks poll, on behalf of a non-profit called Center Maryland, gives O’Malley a 47-41 lead over Ehrlich, and also gives O’Malley a respectable 49/39 approval.

• MI-Gov: Tough nerd and GOP gubernatorial nominee Rick Snyder picked a running mate: state Rep. Brian Calley, a 33-year-old who helps Snyder fill his political-inexperience and social-conservative gaps. One wrinkle: Calley was already the GOP nominee for a state Senate seat, so it’s unclear how filling that vacancy will now play out. Dem nominee Virg Bernero will also need to pick a running mate ahead of this weekend’s nominating convention.

• NY-St. Sen.: Campaign ads in local newspapers in state Senate races are usually a little too down in the weeds for even SSP, but take a look at this amazingly thorough anti-Greg Ball demolition derby run by a group called “Republicans for Truth” as we approach the GOP primary in open SD-40 in New York. Remember, Ball is the wacko we could have been running against in NY-19 if Nan Hayworth hadn’t priced him out.

• Ads: We’re awash in new ads today (as I’m sure we will be every day until November), with the biggest-ticket one seeming to be a new anti-Joe Sestak ad in PA-Sen from Rove front-group American Crossroads. The even more mysterious Americans for Job Security are also wading into MO-Sen, launching an anti-Robin Carnahan radio ad. TV spots are also up in various House races: in FL-22 for Allen West, in KY-06 for Andy Barr, in TX-17 for Bill Flores, and in AZ-08 for Gabby Giffords. NWOTSOTB, in all cases.

• Blogosphere: Congratulations to friend-of-the-site Nate Silver, whose little blog called 538.com has completed its ascendancy, getting relaunched today as part of the New York Times’ online operations.

• History: New Orleans has a particularly fascinating and byzantine political history; with the LA-02 primary fast approaching, here’s an interesting long article on the rise (and potential decline) of African-American political power in the Big Easy.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Sen: Barbara Boxer (D-inc) 44%, Carly Fiorina (R) 43%

• IL-Sen: Alexi Giannoulias (D) 42%, Mark Kirk (R) 40%

• OR-Sen: Ron Wyden (D-inc) 56%, Jim Huffman (R) 36%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 46%, Ron Johnson (R) 47%

• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold (D-inc) 47%, David Westlake (R) 40%

• Alaska: Last night’s biggest story wound up being the Alaska GOP Senate primary, where Lisa Murkowski is on track to being the second sitting Senator to get bounced by the tea partiers, via the previously little-known Joe Miller. Miller leads Murkowski by 2,000 votes (51-49), although with about a dozen precincts outstanding and then at least 7,600 absentee ballots to be counted, we won’t know anything for sure until possibly Sep. 8. With the outcome uncertain, Murkowski isn’t conceding, but is already sounding sour-grapesy, sending some bad vibes in the direction of Miller-endorsing Sarah Palin. The winner will face off against Sitka mayor Scott McAdams, the Dem winner who suddenly finds himself in a potentially competitive race. (The DSCC is already out with a press release this morning hitting Miller’s extremism, but they haven’t said anything about McAdams yet.)

Also in the Last Frontier, the gubernatorial race shaped up as expected, with incumbent GOPer Sean Parnell (who got promoted to the job when Palin did the resigny-quitty thing) facing off against former Dem state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz. Both won their primaries with smaller than expected numbers, though (with each receiving 49% of the vote).

• Arizona: Good news! For John McCain! He won his primary against J.D. Hayworth by a crushing margin — 56-32 — and all for the low, low cost of only his very soul (and tens of millions of dollars). He’ll face off against Rodney Glassman in the Senate primary; the former Tucson vice-mayor won a crowded Dem field with 35% of the vote.

There was one lone surprise among the four contested GOP House primaries, and that was in AZ-08, where 31-year-old teabagging veteran Jesse Kelly upset former state Sen. (and establishment pick) Jonathan Paton, 49-41. Maybe the result in AZ-03 was a surprise too, given the underwhelming last few weeks of his campaign, but money and family name rec managed to push Ben Quayle to a dazzling 23% victory in a 10-person field. Democratic opponent Jon Hulburd welcomed Quayle to the field in withering terms:

This election is now between Jon Hulburd and Brock Landers. It’s between a young man who fabricated a family, degraded women, and then tried to lie about it, and a small businessman and father of five who has been dedicated to his community…

In AZ-01, as expected, the victor was dentist Paul Gosar (at 31%), and in AZ-05, former Maricopa Co. Treasurer David Schweikert gets his rematch against Rep. Harry Mitchell (winning with 39%).

• Florida: For Florida Democrats, the GOP gubernatorial primary was truly the Best of Both Worlds (sorry, I just can’t get off the Peter Garrett thing). They could face off against a vociferously evil, Medicare-defrauding centimillionaire, or against an unpalatable dweeb with a long track record of losing elections, both of whom had turned each other radioactive with unprecedented levels of saturation negative advertising. In the end, the creepy rich guy won (spending $2.70 $84 per vote en route to a 46-43 win), advancing in thoroughly pre-defined form to face Democrat Alex Sink, left unscathed from her primary. McCollum has conceded without endorsing Scott, amidst the planned “unity rally” having already been scrapped several days in advance of the primary.

The Democrats own version of the GOP primary, in their Senate primary, turned out to not be so momentous; Kendrick Meek beat hard-partying billionaire Jeff Greene 57-31, and will try to wade into the general election battle between Charlie Crist (strangely still mum on how he’d caucus) and Marco Rubio. The most interesting House primary in the state was also one of the few Dem ones: Allen Boyd barely held off Al Lawson in a primary challenge from the left-ish in FL-02, winning 51-49 as Lawson rallied African-American voters. He’ll face GOPer Steve Southerland in November. The FL-17 primary, to replace Kendrick Meek, was a relatively easy win for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, who got 35% to take over this safe blue seat. (Those sad over Regina Thomas’s loss in GA-12 can at least take some comfort in that Wilson will be bringing her own crazy hat collection with her to the House.)

The tightest GOP House primary was in FL-24, where state Rep. Sandy Adams, basically that field’s third wheel, made her way through the wreckage left by Craig Miller and Karen Diebel’s attacks on each other to win with 30% of the vote, by a 560-vote margin (no AP call and no concession, though); Adams faces freshman Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. Daniel Webster won with 40% of the vote in the GOP primary in FL-08, for the right to face Rep. Alan Grayson in what’s likely to be the nation’s most over-the-top House race. And in FL-25, state Rep. David Rivera won the GOP primary in this open seat race with 62% despite late-breaking allegations of, well, everything; he’ll face Dem Joe Garcia.

• Oklahoma: In the fourth case (along with AZ-08, FL-08, and FL-24) last night of the NRCC not getting their preferred and/or expected candidate (not that it matters much in this red district), social conservative Jim Lankford beat Club for Growther Kevin Calvey in the OK-05 runoff, by a wide 65-35 margin.

• Vermont: The night’s most refreshing primary — one that was extremely civil and where one of the key issues was just how much each participant supported Vermont’s possible move to single-payer health care — also turned out to be its closest. With every precinct reporting this morning, state Sen. Peter Shumlin has a 190-vote lead over ex-LG Doug Racine, who in turn has a 494-vote lead on SoS Deb Markowitz. Shumlin has more or less declared victory, and will face Republican LG Brian Dubie.

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters,

Alex Sink (D): 41 (36)

Rick Scott (R): 34 (30)

Bud Chiles (I): 8 (13)

Undecided: 22 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP is out of the gate with the first poll of the Florida gubernatorial election now that billionaire creepazoid Rick Scott is the Republican nominee (although, note that the poll was conducted over the weekend). It seems that Rick Scott has gorged himself on cat fud, as his favorable rating is an abysmal 28-49 compared to Sink’s 35-23. Only 57% of Republicans are committing to Scott while Sink enjoys the support of 72% of Democrats. Independents, who detest Scott (giving him a 54% unfavorable rating), lean toward Sink by a 37-28 spread.

It doesn’t sound like Billy McCollum is all that keen on hopping aboard the Rick Scott bandwagon. His concession statement doesn’t even mention Scott by name, choosing instead to refer to the medicare fraudster as “a multi-millionaire with a questionable past” who put out “false and misleading advertising”. That sure doesn’t sound like the tone of a man who’s anywhere near ready to endorse his party’s nominee, does it? I’m sure McCollum would rather let Scott grease for a while (at least) instead.

Things are definitely looking up for Alex Sink, although she’ll be faced with the whirling blades of Rick Scott’s gazillions. She’s already up on the airwaves with her first post-primary ad, though, with a spot that highlights her reform priorities.

The latest count:

So, it seems Joe Miller is on the verge of a shocking upset — or was it really all that shocking? Sure, the polls we saw of this race were not particularly encouraging for Miller, but they were taken before the Tea Party Express (the same lugs who powered bat-eyed Sharron Angle to a primary win) spent over $550K on Miller’s behalf. That may not seem like much, but those ad dollars can stretch a lot further in a less expensive media market like Alaska’s. Also, let’s not forget the dubious track record of Alaska polls back in 2008…

As for the final result, we won’t know for sure until all the absentees are counted — which will begin next week but finish on September 8th:

The final results of the race won’t be known for over a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be two subsequent counts as the absentee votes trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

I hope that Chuck Schumer’s been on the horn with Sitka Mayor – and Democratic Senate nominee – Scott McAdams this morning.

MANDERS: We have domestic enemies. We have home-born homegrown enemies in our system. And I for one think we have some of those enemies in the walls of the Senate and the Congress.

ANGLE: Yes. I think you’re right, Bill.

Case called him “the most dangerous politician in a generation,” adding that Hannemann governs “by fear and intimidation.”

“He is the product and clear choice of a political machine that must end. While professing unity, he’s practiced the politics of division, exploiting rather than healing differences of race, origin and economic status,” Case said.

Jeff Perry ‘proud’ despite work on bogus degree

Meanwhile, Dem Rob O’Leary is out with his first TV ad, which interestingly enough calls for an end to the war in Afghanistan. NWOTSOTB, and WARNING – AUTOPLAYING YOUTUBE. Very annoying.

“My generation and probably the generation that follows me, we are going to have to step up to the plate and say,” he said. “We are not going to get Social Security,” he said. “But we are going to pay into it to get this debacle squared away. So if I have to sacrifice my Social Security to get it squared away … because we can’t take Social Security away from people that are on it now.

4:46am: Hm, nope. We’re now at 77% reporting, and Miller’s up by 2,996. That’s it from me, though. Goodnight and good luck!

4:41am: Okay, I lied. With 72% now reporting (the final DoE update for the night), Miller now leads by over 3,100 votes.

4:28am: Final update, I swear! From the ADN:

The final results of the race won’t be known for a week. The Alaska Division of Elections said over 16,000 absentee ballots were requested and as of Monday night 7,600 had been returned. The first count of absentees will be next Tuesday and there will be subsequent counts as they trickle in on Sept. 3 and on Sept. 8.

4:24am: The Anchorage Daily News is tweeting that the Alaska DoE will stop counting votes at 12:30am local (six minutes from now) and will resume in the morning. Hope you have your morning coffee ready!

4:00am: One final update from the SSP Rocky Mountain Headquarters: We’re up to 66% of the vote reporting in Alaska, and Joe Miller’s lead has shot up to 2,881 votes (still 52-48). Who knows how long it’ll take to sort this one out. The last time we covered a close Alaska primary, we ended up liveblogging for 24 hours.

3:22am: We’re going to call it a night at SSP. Before we go, though, a quick Alaska update: 51% are reporting (not much change over the last hour), and Miller’s lead is 52-48, by 2,300 votes. Based on half-assed piecing-apart of the legislative districts (y’know, it seems like once every two years I really find myself wishing that Alaska had counties), though, that lead may be kind of fragile as more rural areas start to report more. But we’ll know more tomorrow.

3:20am: A few minutes ago the AP finally called AZ-03 for Ben Quayle, who wins with an overwhelming mandate of 23%. He’ll face Dem Jon Hulburd in November. Also just noticed the AP called, at some point, AZ-Sen D for Rodney Glassman, who wins with 35% and will face John McCain.

2:50am: And it looks like they’ve just shut it down for the night in Vermont, with no clear victor in the Dem gubernatorial primary. They’re still stalled at 232 of 260 precincts.

2:49am: 94% reporting in AZ-03, but still no call. It’s still Ben Quayle at 23, with 18 for Steve Moak, and 17 for Jim Waring and Vernon Parker each.

2:47am: Sean Parnell has been called the victor in the GOP gubernatorial primary. It wasn’t that overwhelming, though: also exactly 50% of the vote, with Bill Walker pulling in 34%.

2:45am: Almost exactly half reporting in Alaska, and the Miller lead continues to grow very slightly: he’s up to a 2,200 vote lead, good for a 52-48 margin. Whoever wins will face Scott McAdams; the Sitka mayor has been called by the AP as winner of the Dem primary (with 50% of the vote).

2:14am: With 36% reporting, it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski. The lead is up to 1,200 votes. Interestingly, though (if I’m reading this map correctly), it seems like the Mat-Su Valley (the most conservative part of the state, including Wasilla, home of Miller’s most famous endorsers) has mostly reported (based on state House districts 12 and 15). The Bush (which if you remember your 2008 history, where Young’s victory eventually came from) reports later, and they might be less teabaggish and more pork-friendly out there.

2:00am: The last uncalled GOP primary in Arizona is AZ-03, although we’re up to 81% reporting. Ben Quayle is still leading, by that same 23-18-18 margin over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

1:45am: One other call: the AP call the GOP primary in AZ-01 for rogue dentist Paul Gosar. He’ll face Ann Kirkpatrick. He wins with only 31%, beating Sydney Hay at 23 and Rusty Bowers at 14.

1:42am: The AP has called Don Young’s GOP primary for him, beating Sheldon Fisher with 70%. He’ll face Dem Harry Crawford in November.

1:41am: We’re up to 33% reporting in Alaska, and it’s still 51-49 for Miller over Murkowski, with a 1,000 vote lead for Miller. (Well, 1,002, if you want to get technical.)

• Alaska: Associated Press | AK DoE | Politico
• Arizona: Associated Press | AZ SoS | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

1:35am: Follow us over here.

1:34am: And yet another lead change in Vermont. Now Peter Shumlin is back on top by 121 votes over Doug Racine, thanks to only two more precints reporting (now 232 out of 260).

1:28am: Meanwhile, back in Arizona, the AP has called the AZ-08 GOP primary for Jesse Kelly, who unexpectedly beats establishment favorite Jonathan Paton 49-40.

1:26am: We’ve moved up to 29% reporting; Miller still leads Murkowski by about 500.

1:24am: Via the Twitter, Taniel is reminding us that Don Young trailed early in the GOP 2008 primary (against now-Gov. Parnell), and came back slowly as the late precincts from the Bush (where they like and in fact depend on their pork, and thus love the old-school Alaska politicians, in which category Murkowski seems to fall) trickled in.

1:20am: At least the indestructible Don Young is cruising; he leads the AK-AL GOP primary over Sheldon Fisher 70-24.

1:18am: We’ve got gubernatorial results in Alaska too. On the Dem side, Ethan Berkowitz is leading, though maybe not as big a margin as expected; he leads Hollis French 48-42. On the GOP side, Sean Parnell also leading by a not overwhelming margin, 48 over 35 for Bill Walker and 14 for Ralph Samuels.

1:15am: Wow, this is big. We’re just getting the first Alaska results (via the state site, the AP has nothing) and we’ve got a real race in the AK-Sen GOP primary. Joe Miller leads Lisa Murkowski 51-49, with 27% reporting (119 of 438).

1:11am: We’re rounding the halfway mark in AZ-Sen D (1100 out of 2239), and it’s looking like Rodney Glassman is on track to face John McCain. He’s at 35, with Cathy Eden at 28, J. Dougherty at 24, and Randy Parraz back at 13.

1:09am: The AP has called AZ-05, where David Schweikert is still at 39% atop a crowded field. That’s with only 38% reporting, but he’s well ahead of Susan Bitter Smith, at 25.

1:07am: Contrast that with Arizona, where nothing interesting has happened since the initial rollout of votes. In AZ-01, we’re up to 66% reporting, and it’s still the exact same, with Paul Gosar over Sydney Hay 32-23. Rusty Bowers, who on paper seemed like he should have been the frontrunner thanks to his long-ago legislative tenure and then his duties lobbying on behalf of the sand and gravel industry, is in 4th place at 14, trailing B. Beauchamp.

1:03am: I don’t think this Vermont race could get any closer if we tried. Doug Racine pulled back into the lead, by a whopping 13 votes over Peter Shumlin. That’s with 230 out of 260 precincts reporting (88% in).

1:00am: In AZ-03, we’re up to 48% reporting. Looks like Ben Quayle going crying to mommy and daddy may have saved him in the end; he’s still holding at 23, beating Jim Waring and Steve Moak, both at 18.

12:51am: The Peter Shumlin lead is declining a bit in Vermont: he’s up by 45 now, 16,401 to 16,366 over Doug Racine, with Deb Markowitz at 15,621. (That’s 25-25-24.) 88% are reporting.

12:29am: We’re up to 35% reporting in AZ-03, and Ben Quayle has inched up to 23%, ahead of Waring at 19% and Moak at 18%. A Quayle win would certainly breathe a bit of life into well-financed Democrat Jon Hulbard’s campaign…

12:25am: Shumlin’s lead is now down to 75 votes (over Racine). Markowitz trails by 768 votes.

12:21am: Smoke ’em if you got em, fellow Swingnuts.

12:17am: Over in AZ-06, GOP incumbent Jeff Flake is at a somewhat underwhelming 67% against his Some Dude opponent.

12:11am: Get your Florida election law on. Automatic recounts are the name of the game if the final margin is less than 0.5%. In FL-24, Adams leads SnakesinaPool by 0.8% with one measly precinct outstanding.

12:05am: Not much has happened in the Arizona House Races. Gosar’s lead in AZ-01 is 10% of 5,500 votes with 51% reporting; nothing else new from AZ-03, 05, or 08.

12:03am: Shumlin’s now up to a 250-vote lead in VT-Gov, which is probably the largest lead of the night. Markowitz is still about 550 behind Racine.

12:00am: Still no call in FL-24, where we’re missing only one precinct in Brevard County. The last one added no votes, leaving Adams’ lead at 560, or 0.85%. SSP Legal is looking to Florida’s recount laws…

11:54pm: In AZ-Sen (D), we’re at 19% reporting; Glassman leads Eden 35-29, with Parraz in a distant fourth at 12.

11:48pm: More precincts keep flowing (dripping) in Vermont, where Racine is now 49 votes behind Shumlin. Markowitz is another 618 votes behind with 85% in.

11:46pm: Just two precincts left outstanding in FL-24, where Sandy Adams continues to hold her 560-vote lead over Karen SnakesInAPool (TM) Diebel, though both of them are in reptile-infested Brevard County.

11:41pm: Checking in on the Arizona house races, Paul Gosar has a 33-22 over retread Sydney Hay in AZ-01; Ben Quayle has a 22-19-18 lead over Jim Waring and Steve Moak in AZ-03. Dave Schweikert’s seem to have done fine despite his recanted hubris, leading Susan Bitter Smith by 6,000 votes or 39-25 in their AZ-05 rematch; the teabaggish Jesse Kelly has a 50-39 lead over establishment pick Jonathan Paton in AZ-08.

11:37pm: Back in VT-Gov, Peter Shumlin has now taken a 126-vote lead over Doug Racine; Deb Markowitz has now fallen another 526 votes back.

11:34pm: The Glass Man is up to 36-29 over Eden. Over in AZ-08, Kelly leads Paton by 50-39. In AZ-01, it’s 33-23 for rogue dentist Gosar over Sydney Hay.

11:31pm: We’d be remiss if we didn’t mention the one other competitive statewide race in Florida, the AG race on both sides. For the Dems, state Sen. Dan Gelber beat fellow state Sen. Dave Aronberg (who the DCCC had tried to lure into FL-16), 59-41. And on the GOP side, Sarah Palin-approved Pam Bondi beat Charlie Crist’s estranged Lt. Governor, Jeff Kottkamp, 38-33.

11:28pm: Well, that was fast. The AP has called AZ-Sen R for John McCain! (Good news!)

11:20pm: In the 5th, David Schweikert leads Susan Bitter Smith and Jim Ward 39-25-23. And in the 8th, this may be the big surprise of the night: teabagger Jesse Kelly is leading NRCC fave Jonathan Paton by a pretty wide 55-40.

11:19pm: In the House races, Paul Gosar’s over Sydney Hay 36-23 in the 1st. In the 3rd, Ben Quayle is leading 22-19-18 over Jim Waring and Steve Moak.

11:17pm: Finally, some data’s trickling in from Arizona. (Check out the SoS site, not the AP.) John McCain is crushing J.D. Hayworth 60-30. Rodney Glassman has a small lead over Cathy Eden, 33-31. (Randy Parraz is in 4th.)

11:12pm: Check out the raging enthusiasm with which the RGA greeted Rick Scott’s awesome victory!

“Rick Scott is the nominee, the general election has begun, and our party now looks forward.”

11:11pm: Switching back over to Vermont, now that we’re pretty much done with Florida and Arizona hasn’t given us anything yet. It’s Racine and Shumlin both at 25 (Racine up by 43 votes) with Markowitz at 24.

11:07pm: This just gets tastier and tastier. McCollum isn’t conceding yet. He’s saying “this’ll go into the wee hours of the morning.”

• Alaska: Associated Press | Politico
• Arizona: Associated Press | AZ SoS | Politico
• Florida: Associated Press | FL DoE | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

11:00pm: Time for some fresh thread.

10:55pm: Hahahhahahahahahha! The AP calls FL-Gov for none other than Rick Scott! Fuckin’ amazing!

10:53pm: Over in FL-24, is Sandy Adams this cycle’s Alice Kryzan? Diebel attacked Miller on immigration, Miller attacked Diebel on crazy, and Adams is walking through the hole in the middle. Still, it’s a very close race and not yet called.

10:49pm: Speaking of Boyd, the AP just called the race for him. What a crazy race.

10:47pm: The hamsters have been spinning in their wheels furiously to keep the ol’ mainframe running, which is still calling for about a 2-point Scott win and a 3-point Boyd escape.

10:42pm: We have a winner in FL-17! The AP has called the race for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, with 35% of the vote. Self-funder Rudy Moise was a distant second with 16%. He spent over a million bucks to get fewer than 6,000 votes (so far).

10:37pm: Rick Scott has now nudged up to 47%. If he hangs on, Tom Jensen and the gang over at PPP are going to look like geniuses.

10:34pm: Annette Taddeo, who ran a spirited campaign last cycle in FL-18, is running again this year for County Commissioner in Dade Co. Unfortunately, things don’t look so hot for her right now – she is in third place (look for District 8) in a race where the top two candidates advance.

10:28pm: We’re up to 67% in VT-Gov, Racine leads Markowitz by 8 votes. Shumlin trails by 50 or so votes. Basically, every update of this race has given us a new leader.

10:20pm: We’re now up to 81% reporting in Florida, and Rick Scott leads by 46-43. Note the disparity between the AP and Miami-Dade’s website in terms of precincts reporting: AP says 380, Miami-Dade says 526, but both show the same raw vote total. I’ve learned that when in doubt, the AP is usually wrong!

10:13pm: A perfect tie! Racine and Shumlin are at 9,440 votes each. Markowitz is about 200 votes behind.

10:07pm: Over in Vermont, Peter Shumlin had the lead briefly, but now it’s Doug Racine over Markowitz by 34 votes. (52% reporting)

10:06pm: The AP has called FL-25’s GOP primary for David Rivera. He’s up 64, to Crespo’s 25 and Cancio’s 10. Democratic oppo researchers are doing happy dances.

10:05pm: Eagle-eyed watchers may have noticed that the Miami-Dade elections office is about 300 precincts further along than the AP (526, instead of 213). McCollum needs to make up about 40K votes statewide, and the further-along Miami votes only help him make up about 5,000, though. Anyway, according to the AP, 72% are reporting, and it’s still 47-43 in favor of Scott.

9:59pm: It’s still a small Sandy Adams lead on the GOP side in the 24th. She leads Karen Diebel 30-29, with Craig Miller at 27, with 93% reporting. On the Dem side, let’s Partyka like it’s 2010. Suzanne Kosmas beat even-more-conservaDem Paul Partyka 78-22.

9:57pm: Did we mention there were primaries in the open seat FL-12? On the Dem side, Lori Edwards won 75-25 over Doug Tudor, the 2008 candidate and the preferred candidate of a few vocal souls in the netroots. On the GOP side, Dennis Ross’s performance against some teabagging dude J. Lindsey wasn’t overwhelming: 69-31.

9:55pm: Allen Boyd is starting to put a little more distance between him and Al Lawson, if 52-48 can be considered distant. That’s with 86% reporting, and with mostly rural white counties left (Boyd’s stronghold) to report.

9:51pm: Things are starting to look kind of locked in, in the Florida GOP gubernatorial race. With 65% reporting, it’s still 47 for Lex Luthor Bizarro World Peter Garrett Rick Scott, 43 for Bill McCollum. There’s still 2/3ds of Miami-Dade County left, though, where McCollum is doing well (up 63-30), presumably because of his support in the Cuban community over his less-insane immigration stance.

9:47pm: In the wildly swinging Vermont gubernatorial race (if you go by percentages instead of raw votes), Deb Markowitz has pulled back into the lead by about 65 votes over Doug Racine. It’s 26-26 with Shumlin at 24 and Dunne at 19.

9:44pm: One more call to mention: the AP called OK-05 for outsiderish social con Jim Lankford, who beats Club for Growth stooge Kevin Calvey 65-35.

9:41pm: The AP called the Dem field in FL-25 for Joe Garcia, who beats Luis Meurice 77-23. Still no call on the GOP side, but David Rivera’s at 64.

9:39pm: No call yet in the GOP field in FL-24, but it has one thing in common with FL-08: the NRCC’s prize pick finished embarrassingly back. In the 24th, Craig Miller is in 3rd at 27 (with Sandy Adams at 31 and Karen Diebel at 30). And in the 8th (which is called), Bruce O’Donoghue finished 5th, at _7_, behind Daniel Webster at 40, Todd Long at 23, Kurt Kelly at 14, and heretofore unknown P. Sullivan at 11.

9:37pm: Somewhere in there, the Republican primary in FL-05 got called for the Nuge. That’s Richard Nugent, not Ted, the Hernando Co. Sheriff who beats random teabagger Jason Sager 62-38 for the right to succeed Ginny Brown-Waite. He’ll face Dem Jim Piccillo in the general.

9:35pm: With 57% now reporting statewide in Florida, we’re still holding at a 47-43 lead for Rick Scott. That’s with 10 for Mike McAllister, a pretty good showing for Some Dude, although he pretty much a priori has to be the least of three evils.

9:32pm: The mainframe at SSP Labs has finally laid its egg (extrapolating each county’s results so far), and it predicts that Allen Boyd will continue to hold the lead and survive, by a not-so-convincing 52-48 margin. (He’s currently up 51-49 over Al Lawson, says the AP.) By the way, who ever wins will face Steve Southerland; the AP has called the GOP field in the 2nd for him, with 48% out of a field of five.

9:30pm: In what’s likely to not be the last lead change of the night, now Doug Racine leads the Dem pack in Vermont, with not quite 1/3 reporting. Racine’s at 26, with Markowitz at 25 and Shumlin at 24. (Racine’s edge is just 22 votes, so this’ll be a game of inches all night.)

9:15pm: And in FL-Gov, Rick Scott leads by 3.6% with 55% of the vote in. The other hot race to watch is FL-24, where conservative state Rep. Sandy Adams leads Karen “Snakes in a Pool” Diebel by 1% with 90% reporting.

9:14pm: We’re at 73% reporting in FL-02, and Allen Boyd’s lead has dipped down to 51-49. The ticker tape is spewing out of the SSP Labs mainframe fast and furiously — we’ll let you know what our findings tell us in a few minutes.

• Arizona: Associated Press | AZ SoS | Politico
• Florida: Associated Press | FL DoE | Politico
• Oklahoma: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico