Swing State Project

This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate  elections in blue states. It is the second section of two posts focusing on the greatest state in the union (otherwise known as California). The first part of the series can be found here.

Suburban SoCal

Southern California (SoCal, in short) is where the battle for California will be won or lost. Ms. Fiorina must accomplish two tasks in the region.

First, she must clean the clock in the suburban counties outside Los Angeles.

More below.

It is in places like Orange County, San Diego, and the Inland Empire that the votes to counter the Democratic bases in the Bay Area can be found. In the 2008 presidential election, there were one million more votes cast in the six SoCal counties above (excluding Los Angeles) than in the entire Bay Area.

This task is not too difficult. Unlike liberal NorCal, the suburbs in this region are more like the rest of the United States in their political leanings; in fact, they are probably more conservative than the median. Orange County and San Diego County are nationally known as conservative bastions (although they are not as red as in the past). Ms. Fioina probably needs to win above 60% of the vote in both counties. Historically, Republicans have often done this. The trouble is with Los Angeles.

Los Angeles

Ms. Fiorina’s second task is to run closely in Los Angeles. It is here that Republicans face their greatest challenge. Los Angeles – sprawled, extremely populous, and arguably more diverse than even the Bay Area – constitutes a Democratic stronghold. President Barack Obama ran off with 69.2% of the vote here; Senator John Kerry took 63.1%. Ms. Fiorina must reduce this Democratic margin to within the single-digits.

The math here is simple.  There are just not enough Republican votes in Central Valley, the Orange County-San Diego metropolis, and the Inland Empire to offset the Democratic bastions of the Bay Area and Los Angeles. Republicans must therefore break one of the two strongholds. It is impossible to do this in the Bay. So the choice must be Los Angeles.

The key are the outer, wealthier suburbs within Los Angeles county. Some are liberal Hollywood areas, typified by Congressman Henry Waxman’s 30th congressional district. Republicans probably cannot win these. Others are more conservative and even voted for Senator John McCain (see, for instance, the patches of red north of Pomona and south of Redondo Beach). Ms. Fiorina will have to expand upon this core and win places like the San Fernando Valley and Pasadena – suburbs which rarely vote Republican.

Conclusion

When the voting booths close and the precinct results start pouring in, look at Los Angeles County. Ms. Fiorina’s performance there will be most indicative of her overall strength. If Democrats are winning the county by double-digits, then she is in trouble. Conversely, if their margin is less than five percent – or if Republicans are winning the county – then Republicans are in good shape. A Democratic margin between five and ten percent signifies that a long night is ahead.

On a state-level basis, modeling a close Republican victory is somewhat difficult; Republican candidates haven’t won a close race for a long time in California. There is, however, a substitute that fits well:

These are the results of the famous Proposition 8, which passed by a 4.5% margin. On a county-by-county basis, a Fiorina victory will probably look quite similar to this. There are minor differences; the margins in Orange and San Diego Counties would probably be greater; Republicans probably wouldn’t win Los Angeles County.

Overall, however, the picture would not be too different. Heavy margins from the SoCal suburbs and Central Valley counter Democratic strength in NorCal, while a strong Republican performance in Los Angeles dilutes Democratic margins there.

There is one final complication for Republicans. California constitutes the most diverse state in the country; winning minorities is a must. The Republican Party is not very good at this, which why California is a blue state today. It must change this, if candidates like Ms. Fiorina are to win the state.

Some minorities are easier to win than others. Blacks are most loyal to the Democratic Party, but they number only 6.2% of the state’s population. While more numerous Asians and Latinos do not vote their numbers (their share in the voting electorate is slightly more than half their share of the overall population), their votes are easier to get.

Here Proposition 8 is less useful as a guide. In Los Angeles County, for instance, all of South Central voted for the proposition. Unless Republicans start winning Compton and Watts, they will have to find support from a different section of California’s majority-minorities.

Winning minorities constitutes a novel challenge to the Republican Party; until now it has drawn an ever-increasing percentage of the white vote to offset increasing numbers of minorities. This is no longer possible in places like California. If Republican candidates like Carly Fiorina and Meg Whitman are to win the state, they will need to envision a new strategy.

(Note: Credit for several edited images goes to the LA Times).

–Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

9:06pm: Move along, now, y’all. Over here.

9:04pm: “Out East” or so they say, with 18% reporting in Vermont, Markowitz has a 121-vote lead over Shumlin, who has a 6-vote lead over Racine. For those of you that prefer percentages, that’s 26-25-25, with 19 for Dunne.

9:01pm: 39% reporting in OK-05 now, Jim Lankford continues to lead Kevin Calvey, now 61-39. First of several outsider upsets tonight?

8:57pm: All of Broward’s reporting in FL-17, Wilson continues to hold her 33-16 lead. Broward is 26% of the district.

8:55pm: The AP’s also called FL-08 for Daniel Webster, who’s holding his 40-23 lead over Todd Long.

8:53pm: The AP’s called the OK-02 runoff for Charles Thompson, who…has a $13k warchest. While that’s better than Edmonds’ $1300, it’ll likely be no match for Dan Boren.

8:49pm: Bill McCollum is lagging Rick Scott just a little more in FL-Gov (R), with Scott now up 46-43. While McCollum’s stronghold of Miami-Dade is only 0.1% reporting, let’s not forget that  around 40% of votes are cast early in Florida, and those have indeed reported.

8:47pm: Some early results coming through in Vermont. With 12% reporting, SoS Deb Markowitz has a narrow 28-25 lead over Lt. Gov Doug Racine; Shumlin and Dunne are close behind at 21 apiece.

8:44pm: Further down the peninsula, Daniel Webster leads Todd Long 40-23 in FL-08; Sandy Adams leads Karen Diebel 32-30 in FL-24, and “Road Rage” Rivera has 65 in FL-25. For the “Get to Congress Free” card in FL-17, Frederica Wilson has 33% to Rudy Moise’s 16%. (The GOP isn’t contesting this district in November.)

8:39pm: Another 200 precincts have rolled in down in Florida; Rick Scott continues to hold his 46-44 advantage for the GOP Gov nod. 57% reporting in FL-02, with Boyd seeing a little more daylight at 52-48 now. Alarmingly for him, only early votes have reported in Gadsden County, which is heavily-Democratic and majority-black.

8:38pm: In Oklahoma, Charles Thompson leads Daniel Edmonds 66-34 in OK-02 with about 10% reporting; Jim Lankford looks on track to upset establishment pick Kevin Calvey in OK-05, leading 58-42 with 9% reporting.

8:24pm: Wow. Allen Boyd only leads Al Lawson by 2% with 42% reporting.

8:21pm: Summerwind sails into the sunset. The AP has called the Dem Senate primary for Kendrick Meek.

8:18pm: Over in FL-24, Sandy Adams leads Karen “Snakes in a Pool” Diebel by 31-30 with 29% reporting.

8:11pm: We’re up to 30% reporting in Florida, and Scott is still holding steady at 46-44 over McCollum. Meek leads Greene by 55-32. Oh, and hey: The AP has called FL-Sen (R) for Marco Rubio and FL-Gov (D) for Alex Sink.

8:05pm: Some early results in from Vermont — Deb Markowitz, Matt Dunne, and Doug Racine are separated by a mere handful of votes.

7:57pm: Rick Scott’s margin has tightened to 46-44, in part thanks to McCollum’s strong performance in Miami-Dade, where the pocket protector-wielding dork is boasting 66% of the vote.

7:48pm: In the AP’s hot early precinct action in FL-25, scumbucket David Rivera has 57% to Paul Crespo’s 33% and Mariana Cancio’s 10%.

7:42pm: We’re up to 5.5% reporting in the Gov race, and Rick Scott’s lead over Bill McCollum is now at 48-42. In the Senate race, Meek now leads Greene by 51-36.

7:36pm: Some early House primary results: Boyd leads Lawson 59-41 in FL-02. Richard Nugent’s got a 60-40 lead over Pat Sager in FL-05. Dan Webster’s at 40%, with a big lead over Todd Long in FL-08. In FL-24, Sandy Adams, Karen Diebel and Craig Miller are essentially locked in a three-way tie.

7:31pm: So much for the Florida DoE’s futile plan to hold the results until 8pm… The Associated Press has already got some early precinct action: Meek is up 48%-38% on Greene, and Rick Scott leads Bill McCollum by 50-40!

7:24pm: And we’re off! Only, Florida is holding their results until 8pm…

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RESULTS:

• Florida: Associated Press | FL DoE | Politico
• Oklahoma: Associated Press | OK SEB | Politico
• Vermont: Associated Press | Politico

Polls close in less than an hour in select locations, so let’s hear some predictions! Can Bill McCollum beat free-spending Rick Scott by virtue of being less unlikeable in the Florida governor’s race? Can Jeff Greene sail his vomit-covered yacht through the rapidly closing window in the Florida Senate race? Can J.D. Hayworth help you get free government grant money?

Closing times tonight:

• Florida: 7 pm ET (except: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET in the Panhandle)

• Vermont: 7 pm ET

• Oklahoma: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET

• Arizona: 7 pm MST/10 pm ET

• Alaska: 8 pm local/midnight ET (except: 8 pm local/1 am ET in the Aleutians)

• CO-Sen, CO-Gov: ColoradoPols has an interesting question up at their site: who’s crazier, the Republicans’ candidate in the Senate race or the Governor’s race? (In fact, that’s a good question for the comments here… not just Colorado, but for a whole number of other states too.) The DSCC would like the answer to be “Ken Buck,” the whole Dan Maes UN-bicycle-plot thing notwithstanding: they’re out with a new ad working the Paul/Angle-style “too extreme” angle, here focusing on Buck’s support for eliminating the 17th amendment.

• PA-Sen: This is going to be a hard one for Pat Toomey to explain without some high-impact semantic gymnastics. At the Pennsylvania Press Club yesterday, Toomey said “I’ve never said I favor privatizing Social Security.” The DSCC promptly rolled out 36 different newspaper articles in which Toomey favored privatizing Social Security. We Ask America did offer some sustenance for Toomey, though: they find him leading Joe Sestak 48-35.

• FL-Gov: Here’s a bad sign for the Republican Party of Florida (aka RPOF, pronounced “rip-off”), who poured a lot of money into carrying Bill McCollum across the finish line in the primary and will have to keep propping him up for November. They’re down to $54K in their federal campaign finance account (after plowing much of their holdings into outside committees backing McCollum). Maybe they’d been counting on a reimbursement check from disgraced former state party chair Jim Greer to help fill their coffers a bit, but here’s the ultimate ignominy: Greer’s $7K check to reimburse the party for overcharges bounced.

• LA-03: Politico has a preview of the Republican primary in the open seat 3rd (which will be decided this Saturday, don’t forget). Former state House speaker Hunt Downer is pretty universally considered frontrunner, but he faces a double-teabagging from attorney Jeff Landry and engineer Kristian Magar, who are pointing to his decades as a Democrat, and his snubbing of Tea Party events. Downer’s fate could rest on whether he clears the 50% mark and avoids a runoff, as he could face more trouble against just one opponent.

• MI-01, MI-07: It looks like the Tea Party won’t be getting a ballot line in Michigan, after a 2-2 decision by the state’s Board of Canvassers. (The tie means they’re kept off the ballot.) Republicans brought the challenge pointing to possible Democratic involvement in getting the Tea Party on the ballot (to the extent that a member of the Oakland County Dem leadership helped them). This probably has the greatest impact in the competitive races in the 1st and 7th, where the Tea Party had had candidates ready to go (Lonnie Lee Snyder and Danny Davis, respectively), presumably who would eat into the GOP’s vote share.

• NJ-06: Who knew that when Facebook was created that it’d become a preferred venue for leaking internal polls? Anna Little, the surprise victor in the NJ-06 GOP primary, is now touting a poll from National Research showing her trailing Rep. Frank Pallone 40-34.

• OR-05: One other GOP internal poll kicking around today: state Rep. Scott Bruun, is out with a poll via local Republican pollster Bob Moore giving him a 41-38 lead over freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader.

• Ads: The big ad of the day may be Harry Reid’s newest attack on Sharron Angle in NV-Sen, using her own words to seize on her claims that the state aid package was “money laundering.” Ted Strickland in OH-Gov is also out with a new ad, hitting John Kasich again on his ties to Lehman Brothers. Two House members facing credible challenges this year are also out with their first ads of the season: Republican Lee Terry in NE-02, focusing on his hatred of pork, and Democrat Martin Heinrich in NM-01, focusing on his constituent services.

• Outside Money: The Washington Post has a fantastic new little tool, in the form of a sortable chart that keeps track of outside expenditures by unions, Republican front groups, assorted weirdos, and all other manner of interest groups outside the two parties. Fun fact: did you know that Robert Kirkland (who spent $2.1 million) is #5 overall in total IEs for 2010 (on behalf of his brother Ron’s losing GOP primary run in TN-08), more than the Club for Growth, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, or even the DSCC?

• Rasmussen:

• IL-Gov: Pat Quinn (D-inc) 37%, Bill Brady (R) 46%

• MO-Sen: Robin Carnahan (D) 40%, Roy Blunt (R) 51%

• OR-Gov: John Kitzhaber (D) 44%, Chris Dudley (R) 45%

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 7/16-18 in parens):

Kendrick Meek (D): 17 (17)

Marco Rubio (R): 40 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 32 (35)

Alex Snitker (L): 3 (4)

Undecided: 8 (15)

Jeff Greene (D): 13 (13)

Marco Rubio (R): 37 (29)

Charlie Crist (I): 36 (38)

Alex Snitker (L): 4 (3)

Undecided: 10 (16)

(MoE: ±4.1%)

PPP’s newest look at the Florida Senate race is a complete turnaround from one month ago. Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio aren’t that differently situated, in terms of their popularity: Crist’s approval is 42/44, while Rubio is at 40/37. However, a few things have changed that have caused their positions to dramatically flip since a month ago, though: the Republicans are even more tightly united around Rubio, taking moderate GOPers away from Crist. Also, the share of unaffiliateds (theoretically Crist’s strongest constituency, since he’s one of them now) has dropped since July, from 20% to only 14% of the sample.

It’s a sample that went for John McCain over Barack Obama 48-45 in 2008 (instead of the actual Obama 51-48), and the Republican part of the sample may be even more extra-conservative than usual (remember that PPP was the only pollster yesterday to give Rick Scott, who seems to be the “conservative” candidate in the Gov primary, a lead). While I agree with PPP (and pretty much everyone else) that Crist’s chances improve significantly with Jeff Greene as the Dem nominee rather than Kendrick Meek, it’s interesting to note that Meek hasn’t really increased his share in the general… the flip between Rubio and Crist seems based partly on composition differences between the two samples, and, even more notably, on undecideds moving to Rubio.

• AK-Gov (R/D): Anything other than slam-dunk wins tonight for incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz would have to be considered a surprise. Parnell has led his two highest-profile challengers, ex-state House Speaker Ralph Samuels and attorney and ex-Valdez Mayor Bill Walker by huge margins, as has Berkowitz against state Sen. Hollis “October Surprise” French. (JL)

• AK-Sen (R): Could Lisa Murkowski bite it in a intra-party challenge from little-known attorney Joe Miller? In Miller’s corner are the Palins, Mike Huckabee, and a half-million from the Tea Party Express. In her corner, Murkowski has the backing of about 1.9 million dead presidents, and a 62-30 lead over Miller in a late July Ivan Moore poll. Of course, that was before the TPX started unloading, but the odds are always long for Some Dudes… (JL)

• AZ-Sen (R): This looked like it was going to be one of the all-time great Republican primary slugfests when it first appeared on the horizon: Mr. Maverick himself, John McCain, versus fiery conservative ex-Rep.-turned-radio-talk-show-host J.D. Hayworth. Some of the initial polling, in fact, was fairly close, before the novelty wore off… but then the novelty wore off, and we were left with three basic realities: a) John McCain had a ton more money than Hayworth and was willing to use it, b) John McCain had absolutely no shame about taking all that Maverick stuff, throwing it in the trash can along with many of his previous policy positions, and remaking himself as a right-wing ideologue in order to survive his primary, and c) J.D. Hayworth is a complete and total clown. The turning point seemed to be the revelation in June that Hayworth had shilled for a Matthew Lesko-style free-government-money infomercial, which destroyed any remaining credibility he may have still had. Polling from July gave McCain leads ranging from 20 to over 40 points. (C)

• AZ-Sen (D): At this point, the Democratic Senate primary in Arizona looks a good bit more unpredictable than the Republican one. The seeming frontrunner is former Tucson vice-mayor Rodney Glassman, a former Raul Grijalva aide and a young up-and-comer with some family money as well. Glassman seemed to have the field to himself after the NRSC’s desired candidate, wealthy businesswoman Nan Stockholm Walden, begged off… but once the specter of a race against J.D. Hayworth instead of John McCain appeared, some other late entrants arrived, most notably civil rights activist Randy Parraz and former state Rep. Cathy Eden. What little polling we’ve seen of this race (a Rasmussen poll from July and a Parraz internal) has given Glassman the lead, but he didn’t rise above 20% in either poll. More-frequent polling of the general election has actually given Glassman a good chance against Hayworth… but unfortunately, a McCain match is looking much likelier. (C)

• AZ-01 (R): Eight Republicans have jumped into the race for the right to challenge freshman Dem Ann Kirkpatrick. Notably, rogue dentist Paul Gosar has spent the most, but the field also includes former State Senate majority leader Rusty Bowers and 2008 nominee Sydney Hay (whose abysmal campaign netted her a 56-40 defeat). Gosar seems to have most of the establishment support, including endorsements from the Grizzly Momma and (even though the district doesn’t enter it) Maricopa County Sheriff and xenophobe extraordinaire Joe Arpaio. Gosar’s internal polling has him in the lead, ahead of Hay by a 30-10 margin. Primary voters would be doing themselves a favor by not nominating Hay; we’ll see if Gosar can live up to his polling. (JMD)

• AZ-03 (R): Crowded GOP primaries seem to be the norm in Arizona, with a 10-man field for the open seat of retiring GOPer John Shadegg. Several qualify beyond Some Dude status, including former northern Phoenix State Rep. Sam Crump, former State Senator Pamela Gorman (who represented the same district as Crump), former northern Phoenix/Scottsdale State Senator Jim Waring, attorney Paulina Morris, Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker, and Parker’s predecessor as Mayor, Ed Winkler. The two largest warchests, however, belong to Ben “Son of Potatoe” Quayle and self-funding businessman Steve Moak. Moak and Quayle have gone hard after each other, with recent revelations about Quayle’s history with what eventually became TheDirty.com taking their toll and Quayle’s responses being, perhaps hereditarily, ineffectual. Moak seems ready to occupy the vacuum that Quayle’s implosion has left, but the sheer number of credible candidates leaves room for surprise. (JMD)

• AZ-05 (R): Two-term Dem Harry Mitchell will face one of five GOPers, a field that includes a rematch between 2008 candidates David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith. Schweikert prevailed then by a 1,000-vote margin out of 48,000 cast and went on to a 53-44 loss to Mitchell. Complicating this rematch are other credible candidates in doctor Chris Salvino and self-funded businessman Jim Ward, both of whom have outraised and outspent Bitter Smith. Schweikert seems to have assumed frontrunner status, going as far as cancelling his last-minute ad buy…before opting in for one again. Will Schweikert’s hubris come to haunt him today? (JMD)

• AZ-08 (R): In a common pattern that we’ve seen this cycle, the primary for the right to challenge sophomore Dem Gabby Giffords has a clear establishment v. outsider rift. However, there is only one teabagger here, Jesse Kelly, who squares off against the “establishment’s” former Tucson-area State Senator, Jonathan Paton. Perhaps owing to the fact that there’s only one teabaggish-type here, Kelly seems to be favored against Paton, posting a hefty 36-17 lead in recent polling. However, this poll was taken before third wheel Brian Miller headed for the exit, endorsing Paton on his way out. Given Miller’s low share of support and Kelly’s sole claim to the Holy Teabag, we might finally see the upset of an NRCC golden child here. (JMD)

• FL-Gov (R): All good things must indeed come to an end – and I am going to be very sad when this primary is over. Until mid-April of this year, Bill McCollum, the colorless, unlikeable, ambiguously hairpieced state AG and former House impeachment manager, at least had one thing to keep his sorry ass happy at night: He was guaranteed to be the Republican nominee for governor of Florida. Then, a funny thing happened: Zillionaire asshole Rick Scott decided he wanted the nod more – a whole lot more. In fact, about $40 million more, which is what he and allied groups (aka his wife’s checkbook) have spent on the race. McCollum and his allies (if you can imagine such a thing), undoubtedly stunned to have to start spending so early, have fired back, but they’ve only mustered some $14 million. (Check out this great graphic of both camps’ spending.)

Anyhow, this race has gone more negative than googolplex divided by minus one. There isn’t much consensus among pollsters on how much damage has been done to both candidates (some show McCollum with worse favorables, others show Scott deep in the doghouse), but I’m going to guess the answer is “a lot.” There’s also some divergence over who the frontrunner actually is. For a while there, Billy Mac’s toplines utterly bombed – you can almost see him in his kitchen, sobbing into his cornflakes, as your eyes traverse that mid-July nosedive. But the problem with zillionaire assholes is that it’s very hard for them to stop being zillionaire assholes, and they’ve also probably done quite a few somethings to deserve that reputation in the first place. McCollum’s hit Scott hard over his ultra-shady past in the healthcare business, and while we can’t say for sure, it seems to have turned the race around. Most recent polls have show McCollum taking back the lead, with PPP’s seven-point Scott lead the main outlier.

It’s hard to know whom to root for, though. Do we take Scott, with his deeply tarnished background but willingness to spend every last dime, or McCollum, with his coffers depleted but less scandal-plagued and still the establishment favorite? I think we have to be happy no matter what happens. And either way, I can hear the sound of that cat fud tin popping open: McCollum’s already saying it would be “very difficult” for him to endorse Scott should he lose. Let’s only hope Scott is willing to return the favor! Anyhow, this one was definitely a primary for the ages. God bless you, Florida Republicans. (D)

• FL-Sen (D): Forget the actual Democratic candidates in this race — the real star of the summer-long Florida Democratic primary saga was not a person, but an inanimate object: Summerwind, the notorious party yacht belonging to billionaire scuzzball Jeff Greene (also known as the Levi Johnston of boats). If there was one factor that helped turn this race upside-down, it was the steady barrage of drug-fueled, vomit-caked, and used condom-strewn stories of Jeff Greene’s adventures on the high seas. Those stories, along with a barrage of hits against Greene’s shady practices as a derivatives pioneer, have completely stunted Greene’s momentum and returned the lead to congressman Kendrick Meek. A Meek primary win undoubtedly complicates things for Charlie Crist, who has to hope that he can marginalize the Democratic nominee in order to drink their milkshake steal their votes in November, but three-way races are notoriously difficult to forecast. (Oh, and as a footnote, technically, ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre is still in this race, but his campaign has been totally eclipsed by the Jeff Greene freakshow.) (JL)

• FL-02 (D/R): Despite that Rep. Allen Boyd is a pretty entrenched Blue Dog facing a potentially hard race in November in this GOP-leaning Panhandle district, the real race to watch tonight is the Democratic primary. Boyd faces a challenge from the left from term-limited state Senate majority leader Al Lawson. Lawson isn’t a raging liberal himself (and, unlike many Dem primary challenges this year, Boyd deprived him of a key piece of ammo by voting “yes” on the second round of health care reform), but he’s hoping that the fact that the district’s Democratic electorate, which is substantially African-American, can keep him competitive with the much-better-funded Boyd. Lawson posted a small lead in an internal poll way back in Nov. 2009, but we haven’t heard any polling details about the primary since then. The likeliest GOP nominee is funeral home owner Steve Southerland, whose fundraising has been adequate enough for the NRCC’s Young Guns program and who even put out an internal also showing him leading Boyd. However, there are four other even-less-known GOPers standing in Southerland’s way in the primary (with David Scholl the best fundraiser of the bunch, although even he hasn’t broken into the six digits). (C)

• FL-05 (R): I don’t know about you, but I’ve got a bad case of Cat Scratch Fever, and there’s only one cure… a primary victory tonight by the Rock ‘n’ Roll Sheriff, the Hernando County Madman, the Ten Terrible Fingers of Local Law Enforcement: Richard Nugent. Current Republican Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite, facing only an uneventful challenge from teabagger Jason Sager (whose impetus for getting into the race was Brown-Waite’s support for Dede Scozzafava!), unexpectedly bailed out on filing day, letting her designated successor Nugent pick up the flag and sneak into office without a top-drawer Republican opponent, of which there are potentially many in this red district. Nugent still has to get past Sager, though; we’ll have to see if Sager is beneficiary of people’s discontent over the “selection process.” (C)

• FL-08 (R): Rep. Alan Grayson should be a tempting target, given his shoot-from-the-hip style and his freshman-in-a-swing-district status, but his huge stash of netroots cash seemed an active deterrent as the NRCC tried vainly to find a top-tier recruit. Eventually, they settled on businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, who had some self-funding potential, as their go-to guy. Unfortunately, one of the other guys they’d been unenthusiastically flirting with, social conservative state Rep. Kurt Kelly, decided he was going to get in anyway, and that was compounded by the fact that attorney/talk radio host Todd Long, who nearly beat then-Rep. Ric Keller in the ’08 GOP primary, wasn’t going away. Finally, the guy they wanted all along but who initially blew them off, state Sen. Daniel Webster, decided he wanted to run after all, but came back much too belatedly to clear the field or even get much of a fundraising foothold. Webster does have some key backers (Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush), but with not so much as a leaked internal of the primary from any of the players, there’s no clue as to whether he’ll emerge from tonight’s primary. (C)

• FL-17 (D): This nine-way primary to succeed Kendrick Meek has largely been off the  national radar – and that’s too bad, because it probably represented a good chance for progressive groups to get involved, seeing as it’s an 87% Obama district. In any event, the race features several elected officials, a local community figure, and one wealthy self-funder with a proverbial “colorful past,” Rudy Moise. The only recent poll of the race was taken on behalf of a group supporting activist Marleine Bastien, which had her at 22, while state Sen. Frederica Wilson was at 21. Moise was back at 10, and Miami Gardens Mayor Shirley Gibson was at 9. No one (apart from Moise) has raised much, with state Rep. Yolly Robertson leading the pack at $336K. The Miami Herald has a helpful run-down on each of the candidates in this wide-open race. (D)

• FL-24 (R): National Republicans have run through a succession of favored candidates in this primary, starting with former Winter Park Commissioner Karen Diebel. Diebel turned out to be crazy (in a call to 911 a few years ago, she said political opponents placed a snake in her pool – and were spying on her home and hacking her computer), so attention turned to state Rep. Sandy Adams. Adams, however, turned out to be a sucky fundraiser, so the GOP recruited Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse chief Craig Miller, a first-time candidate. Miller has self-funded less than you might have expected (only about $350K), which might explain his last-minute mailer attacking Diebel’s sanity over the Snakes In A Pool incident. If Miller hasn’t in fact sealed the deal, then race could be very much up in the air, especially since we haven’t seen any recent polling. (D)

• FL-25 (R): State Rep. David Rivera, despite a week of horrible press, is still the favorite for the Republican nomination to succeed district-hopping GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, but it will still be interesting to see if any of the ugly headlines will make a dent at the ballot box. First, we learned that Rivera once ran a truck off the road back in 2002 because it was carrying flyers printed for his opponent, in the hopes of preventing it from reaching the post office on time. Next, Rivera’s Republican opponents have resurrected allegations that Rivera was involved in a domestic violence dispute. Damaging as stories like those may be, Rivera enjoys a huge fundraising lead over attorney Mariana “Marili” Cancio and Marine Corps veteran and public-relations consultant Paul Crespo. The real fireworks will have to wait for November, where the GOP nominee will face Tea Partier Roly Arrojo, Whig nominee (!!) Craig Porter, and ’08 candidate Joe Garcia, who is the heavy favorite to beat union leader Luis Meurice for the Democratic nod tonight. (JL)

• OK-02 (R): The last we checked in on this race, underfunded GOPers Charles Thompson and Daniel Edmonds received 34% and 28% respectively, setting the stage for a runoff. Both candidates seem to have improved their financial position, with Edmonds now able to claim $1,300 in his campaign account and Thompson up to a whopping $13k! Given this, whoever stumbles out of the runoff tomorrow will end up quite the underdog to incumbent (and oft-frustrating) Dem Dan Boren. (JMD)

• OK-05 (R): In the first round, Christian camp director Jim Lankford edged out establishment pick former State Rep. Kevin Calvey, 34-32, a development that left some at NRCC headquarters scratching their heads. Third-place finisher State Rep. Mike Thompson, who earned 18%, has endorsed Lankford and not his former colleague. This just might give Lankford’s more grassroots-oriented campaign the extra push it needs to overcome Calvey’s financial advantage; since we last checked in, Calvey’s plunked out $780k’s to Lankfords $415k. While November in this district won’t likely be exciting, true SwingNuts would never give up a chance to see egg on the NRCC’s face. (JMD)

• VT-Gov (D): Democrats have a challenge ahead of them in knocking off reasonably well-liked Republican Brian Dubie in November, but they have a giant, five-way primary to get through first. The players include former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz, state Sens. Peter Shumlin and Susan Bartlett, and ex-state Rep. Matt Dunne. Markowitz and Shumlin have had the strongest fundraising, while Bartlett has raised the least of the major players. Without any public polling of the Democratic primary — or even a leaked internal — it’s impossible to say what will happen here. (JL)

AK-Sen: Just an FYI: The Tea Party Express has now spent $550K on behalf of Joe Miller – quite a sum in a super-cheap state like Alaska. (That means they’ve poured in about $200K in just the last week.) Remember, the TPX is the organization that helped power Sharron Angle to victory. Knocking off an incumbent senator is a much bigger task than beating Chicken Lady, of course, but the teabaggers are determined to keep this one interesting. (Also, any day I get to write about Chicken Lady is a good day.)

KY-Sen: Rand Paul, subjecting himself to a rare press conference, announced his preferred way of combating drug abuse in Eastern Kentucky. Instead of using federal dollars, he prefers church-based options: “I like the fact that faith is involved, that religion – Christianity – is involved, and I’m not embarrassed to say so. You have to have innovative local solutions to problems.” Paul still called for the end of earmarks to fund Operation UNITE, an anti-drug program, which caused some awkwardness for his host, Hopkins County Attorney Todd P’Pool, who has made use of UNITE himself. (And yes, that awesome name is NOT a typo.)

NH-Sen: Paul Hodes has a new ad up, featuring music he wrote himself, which continues a theme we’ve seen elsewhere – namely, referring to Congress as some kind of daycare center for overgrown children. I’m not really sure how effective this characterization really is, given that it’s been incumbents who keep deploying it. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, though the Hodes campaign tells us it’s “a significant buy in both the Manchester and Boston media markets” that’s going up on both broadcast and cable today.

OR-Gov: Good news for Dem John Kitzhaber: The Oregon Progressive Party declined to nominate a candidate for governor, meaning that there won’t be anyone on the ballot running to Kitz’s left. Jerry Wilson, creator of the Soloflex, had been hoping for the Prog nod, and says he may run a write-in campaign instead.

AZ-03: Just a day before the primary, Dan Quayle emerged from his undisclosed potatoe to pen an email on behalf of his embattled, pathetic spawn, Ben. At this point, though, nothing can undo the Shame of the Super-Son.

CA-52: Democrat Ray Lutz has ended his 11-day hunger strike, which he launched in an attempt to get Rep. Duncan Hunter to meet him for a series of debates. Hunter actually did say he’d meet for an Oct. 15th debate, though he claims he was planning to accept that date even before Lutz went on his strike. Lutz, of course, is claiming victory – and if this tactic really did have its intended effect, I wonder if we’ll ever see anyone else try it again.

IA-03: Rep. Leonard Boswell’s been hitting Republican Brad Zaun on his flip-floppery over agricultural subsidies, and it seems like he’s landed a solid blow. In Iowa, anything less than maximal statism in support of the ethanol industry is usually a political sin, but Zaun couldn’t help himself at a teabagger debate earlier this spring. Zaun related a conversation with a farmer, who asked him “What are you going to do for me and the biofuels industry?” Zaun’s description of his own response: “Nothing.” Boswell’s put out his first radio ad of the cycle (NWOTSOTB) featuring this very quote.

IL-11: Debbie Halvorson is getting a new campaign manager. Julie Merz, who has previously worked for Dennis Moore and Jim Matheson, is taking over for Travis Worl. It’s always hard to say whether moves like this reflect campaign turmoil, a sign that the team is upgrading, or just natural turnover. The only tea leaf we have here is that Worl’s departure was announced before Merz’s hiring was.

LA-02: A good get for Cedric Richmond: New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu just gave the state legislator his endorsement yesterday. Richmond faces fellow state Rep. Juan LaFonta in the primary, which is this Saturday (note the unusual date).

NV-03: Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that AFSCME has put down $240K for ads against GOPer Denny Joe Heck. The union hasn’t filed an independent expenditure report yet, though.

NY-01: Republican George Demos is up with his first TV ad, attempting to out-conservative opponents Randy Altschuler and Ed Cox – and doing his best to make himself unelectable in the general election by painting himself as “pro-life.” NWOTSOTB. Meanwhile, Altschuler succeeded in knocking Cox out of the Conservative Party primary, though Cox has vowed to appeal the judge’s ruling.

NY-25: Republican (and Mama Grizzly) Ann Marie Buerkle says she won’t rule out SSP – the bad kind of SSP, of course:

“There’s so many options when it comes to privatization. I would have to look at each plan that’s being proposed… but I would certainly consider looking at it.”

I spent the better part of the last 10 days diligently working on an exhaustive map of California (curse you, microscopic precincts of Contra Costa County!) using a method I don’t believe anyone on here has tried yet. And wouldn’t you know it, when I was just finishing up San Diego this morning, Safari decided it was going to quit and my entire map died with it. Too upset to go all the way back to CA-01 and start again, I decided I was going to post a diary today anyway, Safari-be-damned. So here are two maps of Ohio, one a Republican gerrymander and the other a Democratic gerrymander, that I drew a while ago but never got around to posting. Enjoy, let me know what you think, and I promise you I’ll get that California one up eventually!

Note before I begin: I’ve never been to Ohio, so I’m a bit of a rookie when it comes to the political niceties of the state. If I’m missing anything obvious, please let me know.

Ohio Republican Map: The “Four-Steve Plan”

Southwest Ohio and Cincinnati

OH-01 (Blue): Steve Driehaus (D) vs. Steve Chabot (R)

This district is drawn to help Chabot regain and hold his old seat in Congress. It’s still Cincy-based but gains a good portion of deep-red exurban Butler County from the current OH-08, and loses some of its inner-city portions. This configuration is probably R+1 or 2. Driehaus trails in the polls as it is, and this plan has a nasty surprise for him, as 15,000 of the black voters who swept him into office are now constituents of….

OH-02 (Green): Jean Schmidt (R)

This district, which only gave 40% of the vote to Obama, was hoarding Republican votes as it was but I didn’t want to hurt the notoriously weak Schmidt too much. Still, she’s capable of taking on the aforementioned 15,000 black votes, and also adds a little bit more of rural Southern Ohio.

OH-03 (Purple): Mike Turner (R)

Turner and Steve Austria inconveniently chose to live about 20 miles from each other, forcing the former’s district to stretch quite a bit and eat up some of Zack Space’s territory (his district is a casualty of this map.) Montgomery County (Dayton) voted for Obama and is the population center of this district, but OH-08 gets all the black precincts. Thus, Turner’s R+5 district is now R+9, with McCain getting 55%.

Columbus Area

OH-04 (Red): Jim Jordan (R)

Franklin County, home of Columbus, is fast-growing and trending more Democratic by the day. It gave 60% of its votes to Obama, but luckily for Republicans is an island of an ocean of conservative Ohio goodness. Thus, part of the city is sliced off and is attached Texas-style to the 60% McCain counties that border Indiana. No idea what the PVI is because I don’t know the precinct-level data for Franklin, but Jordan’s safe.

OH-07 (Grey): Steve Austria (R)

Austria takes in the sparsely populated and more moderate south of Franklin County, and holds onto most of his old district.  This is the swingiest of the four Columbus-area seats, but PVI-wise its probably not too different from Austria’s current 54% McCain seat.

OH-08 (Indigo?): John Boehner (R)

The Minority Leader currently has the most Republican seat in Ohio, and I doubt GOP map-drawers would disturb his seat too much. He gets 75% McCain Mercer County tacked onto the the northern end of his district in exchange for adding some more of downtown Dayton to help Turner.

OH-12 (Pale Blue): Pat Tibieri (R)

Tibieri is rewarded for holding down his Obama district against the 2006 and 2008 waves with a large swatch of conservative territory to the northeast of Columbus. His district contains less of Franklin than it used to, but now has most of the majority-minority precincts. The portion of the district outside of Franklin, which makes up about 3/5 of its population, voted 61% for McCain.

OH-15 (Orange): Steve Stivers (R)

This district is designed with Stivers in mind and is very similar to the neighboring 12th: a quarter of Franklin County attached seven exurban and rural counties that voted 3:2 for McCain. If Stivers came within a few hundered votes of winning a fairly strong Obama district in ’08, this one should be easy for him.

Note: I don’t know which of my districts Mary Jo Kilroy lives in, but she’d face an uphill fight in any of them. Also, while it is still possible to gerrymander Franklin County into 4 GOP seats, by 2020 it may be wiser to consolidate central Columbus into one safely Democratic district.

OH-06 (Teal): Charlie Wilson (D) vs. Zack Space (D) vs. Generic R

The new 6th, in the southeast of the state, is made up of the most conservative parts of the current 6th and 18th. Thus, Charlie Wilson and Zack Space are heading for a primary fight on a rather level playing field. The winner of this hard-fought contest will emerge to take on a Republican in a 56% McCain district with a lot of  territory unfamiliar to him. Not an impossible hold, but a tough one for Democrats in a region sliding away from them.

Northeast Ohio

OH-05 (Yellow): Bob Latta (R)

Latta’s district shifts westward and loses a point or two (down to  51-52% McCain.) He scoops up the rural, conservative leftovers of counties the voted for Obama but have given their liberal sections to Democratic districts. Also, the population center of this district is now in exurban Cleveland, which means Latta may face a primary from that area. I’ve never cared for him anyway.

OH-09 (Sky Blue): Marcy Kaptur (D)

Nothing new here, folks. The dean of the Ohio delegation keeps her base in Toledo and hugs Lake Erie like Lois Capps hugs the Pacific. Obama won 62%.

OH-10 (Pink): Dennis Kucinich (D)

High 50’s for Obama in western Cleveland and its suburbs. I decided to save Kucinich rather than pit him against one of the other northeastern Democrats because his “nay” votes from the left are nonetheless helpful for Republicans.

OH-11 (Lime): Marcia Fudge (D)

There are just enough African-Americans in Cleveland to keep a VRA majority-black seat in Ohio. Fudge’s percentages on the east side of the city are 51% black, 85% Obama.

OH-13 (Tan): Betty Sutton (D)

Sutton’s district is now dominated by her home county of Summit (Akron) but also takes in the college town of Kent and the west side of Canton. Obama scored in the high 50’s, much like in Sutton’s current district.

OH-14 (Taupe?): Steve LaTourette (R)

LaTourette is stuck in a tough place for a Republican. To the west is Cleveland, to the south Youngstown, and to the north Lake Erie. There is some conservative territory to the east, but it’s in Pennsylvania so that’s a no-go. He does have to expand somewhere, though, so I chose rural Trumbull and Portage counties, which are hopefully more conservative than the counties are as a whole, and the surprisingly Republican south and east of Cuyahoga County. This should be enough to nudge McCain over 50, a slight improvement over the current 14th.

OH-16 (Bright Green): Tim Ryan (D) vs. John Boccieri (D)

This is the Youngstown district, and Ryan should have no problem dispatching of Boccieri in the primary and whoever the GOP puts up in the general. East Canton as well as the liberal parts of Wilson’s district are thrown in for good measure. Boccieri could move and try to run against Latta, but it would be an uphill fight for him.

Summary: 3 Lean R (1, 6, 14), 3 Likely R (5, 7, 15), 5 Safe R, 5 Safe D

Ohio Democratic Map (the “Two-Steve Plan”)

Southwest Ohio

OH-01 (Blue): Steve Driehaus

Driehaus sheds the Butler County portion of his district and now has all of Cincinnati and its inner ring of suburbs. The black percentage ticks up to 25 and Obama probably was in the mid-to-high 50’s. Chabot might still have a chance this year, but Driehaus’ odds are far improved down the road.

OH-02 (Green): John Boehner (R) vs. Jean Schmidt (R)

It’s pretty easy for Democrats to eliminate the arch-conservative Schmidt by tossing her in with Boehner. This very red (McCain 60% +) district is made up of Cincinnati’s and Dayton’s exurbs and should be no trouble at all for the Minority Leader or any Republican who succeeds him.

OH-03 (Purple): Mike Turner (R)

The area between Toledo, Cincinnati, and Columbus is sort of a Bermuda triangle for Democrats, as you’ll be hard pressed to find anyplace that Obama broke 45%. The new 3rd combines the only county in this area that Obama won, Montgomery (Dayton) with marginal Clark County to create a 52/48 Obama district. Nevertheless, the PVI is R+1 and Turner will be favored. This seat becomes a tossup when he retires or runs for higher office.

OH-04 (Red): Jim Jordan (R)

This slice of rural Ohio goodness is about as clean-looking a Republican vote sink as you’ll ever see. McCain was in the 60’s here; a stronger Republican would flirt with 70% of the presidential vote. This might be the safest seat for the GOP in the Midwest.

OH-07 (Grey): Steve Austria (R)

Austria is one of the few Republicans who would prefer this map to my GOP gerrymander. He picks up most of Schmidt’s old district along the Kentucky border and retains his base southwest of Columbus.  With McCain in the high 50’s, Austria has this seat as long as he wants it.

OH-06 (Teal): Charlie Wilson (D)

Wilson’s district pushes ever so slightly north into the Democratic vote warehouse of Youngstown, taking about a quarter of the city. The rest of the district is made up of a selection of the least Republican counties of Southeast Ohio (a lot of 50/50 areas.) It’s not much, but the improvement does flip this slight McCain district into a slight Obama one. Wilson’s safe, but this is trouble for Democrats down the road.

Columbus Area

OH-08 (Indigo?): Zack Space (D)

Mr. Space, welcome to East Columbus! As the only endangered Democrat for hundreds of miles in any direction, Space is rewarded for his two wins in tough territory with a large chunk of Franklin County, attached by a thin strip to his home county of Tuscarawas. Who says ugly can’t be beautiful?

OH-12 (Pale Blue): Pat Tibieri (R)

Tibieri is a winner in both my maps, as once again he trades his part of Columbus for exurban and rural counties. This time, he gets almost all the red counties in Central Ohio, and is sitting comfortably in a 60% McCain district.

OH-15 (Orange): Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy needs all the help she can get, so I gave her even more of Columbus than she has now. Then, I traded dark-red Madison and Union Counties for the more moderate Pickaway and Ross Counties to the south of the city. This move pushes Obama into the upper 50’s and should be enough for Kilroy to fend off the pesky Steve Stivers.

Northern Ohio

OH-05 (Yellow): OPEN

This new seat in north-central Ohio is designed with Democrats in mind, as Obama carried it with 54% of the vote. However, it’s not out of the reach of Republicans, especially not this year. Still, since this essentially replaces Latta’s district and we don’t want to spread the votes too thin in Northern Ohio, it’s acceptable. Latta could try his luck here but most of this territory is new to him.

OH-09 (Sky Blue): Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Bob Latta (R)

Sorry Bob, this one’s not gonna happen. Dominated by Lucas County (Toledo), the dean of the delegation should have no problem retaining her seat. Even with the Republican-voting northwest, the new 9th still gave 61% of the vote to Obama. Kaptur’s small sacrifice frees up the lake counties to the west for the new 5th.

OH-10 (Pink): Dennis Kucinich (D)

This district takes Wayne and Medina Counties, which voted for John McCain by a combined 15,000 votes, and neutralizes them with a large slice of western Cuyahoga County (Cleveland). Kucinich could theoretically be in trouble here, but the most likely scenario is that he runs into a strong suburban primary challenger who goes on to easily hold this one for the Democrats.

OH-11 (Lime): Marica Fudge (D)

Exactly the same in both gerrymanders. 51% black. Ho hum.

OH-13 (Tan): Betty Sutton (D)

Sutton has it about the same on both maps as well. Once again, she claims all of Summit County (Akron) and has enough Democratic votes there to allow her to swallow Republican precincts in southern Cuyahoga and Steve LaTourette’s home precint (more on him later.) 57% for Obama this time.

OH-14 (Taupe?): Tim Ryan (D)

Ryan keeps all of his home county, Trumbull, as well as the majority of the city of Youngstown. Those alone are enough to keep him safe, which allow him to grab Ashtabula and Lake Counties as well as parts of Geauga and Cuyahoga from LaTourette’s old district. Mix it all together and you get a 59% Obama seat.

OH-16 (Bright Green): John Boccieri (D)

The most junior Democrat in the region, fittingly, gets the leftovers district. Those leftovers consist of Stark (Canton) and Portage (Kent) Counties, which Obama carried, as well as Carroll and part of Geauga, which McCain carried. Throw in the rest of Cuyahoga and Mahoning, and you get a 53% Obama district, which although no sure thing is better than Boccieri’s old district.

Steve LaTourette, of course, is the odd man out. Where would he run? He lives in Sutton’s district, but the geography and the partisan numbers favor Betty Sue there. Most of his old district is in Ryan’s, but that configuration voted for Obama almost 3:2. Boccieri’s district is the most Republican-friendly, but he only represented about 8% of this area previously. Whatever option he chooses, it’s an uphill fight.

The Bottom Line: 4 Safe R, 1 Lean R (3), 3 Lean D (5, 6, 16), 2 Likely D (1, 15), 6 Safe D  

My internship with the Dubie campaign is over.  Here is a profile of one of the candidates for governor, Doug Racine.

Racine has been a state senator from 1983-1992, including three years as senate president pro Tempore. From 1997-2003 he was the Lieutenant governor of Vermont under Howard Dean. He ran for governor in 2002 against Jim Douglas and lost 45-42-13. In 2006 he was elected senator from Chittenden County, the most populated County in the state.

Advantages: Leadership, experience, location and name recognition. As president pro Tempore, he was in charge of the democratic caucus, and helped draft and pass tough budgets in the recession of 91. On Racine’s site he boasts his 25 years experience in government. Six years as lieutenant governor, 12 combined years as a senator, 3 as leadership, people know who he is. Since he’s from Chittenden county, he has home field advantage in an area which could have anywhere from ¼ to ½ of the democratic primary electorate.  Further, no other candidate is from North Western Vermont, meaning his support won’t be diluted through regional means. He has already announced his issue (to be discusses later) as healthcare calling for a single payer system in Vermont.  He has the backing of three major unions, which could help with GOTV. Plus Racine has already faced and defeated his republican opponent, Brian Dubie, before, back in 2000.

Disadvantages: It’s been how long since he was relevant? Racine has long since been yesterday’s news, he just can’t seem to handle that. His primary senatorial experience was in the eighties, his leadership in the last year of the eighties and first year of the nineties, and lieutenant governor experience in the mid nineties. Further, he’s already had his chance to become governor in 2002 and lost a race that should have been his. He is essentially the AL Gore of the race (Circa 2002). His main experience was decades ago, his 2nd in command experience was years ago, he lacked the charisma of his counter part (Howard Dean) and he only re-entered politics in 2006 to set himself up to try again to be governor. He was the first to announce his intent, only to get attention as the only candidate in the race. Also in regards to healthcare, one, Shumlin Co-opted that issue earlier this year and two look at how well that issue worked for Obama and national democrats. His fundraising has been subpar, he’s raised less than anyone but Susan Bartlett putting him fourth of the five candidates, despite being in the race the longest.  His only ad is somewhat boring and claims “our way of life is under attack,” without saying what is attacking our way of life.  He seemed fear mongering, but doing it very opaquely. His time has passed.

http://www.7dvt.com/2009past-p…

http://dougracine.com/about/ac…

http://www.timesargus.com/arti…