Swing State Project

IMPORTANT UPDATE!!

The Michigan Secretary of State’s office has confirmed that Kande Ngalamulume is finally OFF the MI-08 ballot!! Read the details–as well as the explanation for the delay on the part of the SoS office.

In any event, it’s official: Kande is now off the ballot, and the path has been cleared for Lance Enderle to replace him.

Note: For the backstory on the ongoing saga in Michigan’s 8th Congressional District, see this diary from August 1st. Much more has happened since then, as you’re about to see…

This is bigger than just the ongoing saga of MI-08; this is about the Michigan Secretary of State’s office playing games with the election process!

I just received the following press release, issued by the Democratic Congressional Committee of Michigan’s 8th District:

For Immediate Release

Contact: Judy Daubenmier, 734-612-7137

EAST LANSING – A special committee of the 8th District stands ready to appoint Lance Enderle as the Democratic nominee for the 8th Congressional District, but Republican Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is putting up a roadblock.

Lance Enderle, a teacher from Clinton County, appeared before the special committee on Wednesday night and discussed his plans for a campaign to defeat Republican incumbent Mike Rogers in November. The committee recommended that Democrats in the 8th Congressional District endorse Enderle at their caucus on Saturday during the Michigan Democratic Party convention at Cobo Hall in Detroit.

Committee members are prepared to appoint him as the nominee but learned that Land has refused to accept that the party’s previous nominee, Kande Ngalamulume, has moved out of state, even though she directed Ingham County officials to remove him from the voter rolls. Ngalamulume has registered to vote in Pennsylvania and submitted to Michigan Democratic Party Chair Mark Brewer a copy of his Pennsylvania voter registration receipt along with a notarized letter indicating that he has changed his permanent residency to Pennsylvania.

A copy of the letter was hand-delivered to the Bureau of Elections on Monday by the Michigan Democratic Party. State party Chair Mark Brewer informed the Bureau of Elections that the nomination was vacant and the Michigan Democratic Party would move promptly to fill the vacancy.

Under Michigan law, when a candidate for Congress moves out of state after the primary, the party may pick a replacement candidate to appear on the November ballot. The law provides that a committee made up of the chairs, secretaries and treasurers of each of the counties in the congressional district make the selection at a meeting convened by the secretary of the party’s state central committee. Nowhere does the law say that the party must wait for the secretary of state to declare a vacancy or remove a candidate’s name.

Committee members said since Ngalamulume was allowed to register to vote in Pennsylvania it is clear that he has moved out of Michigan and that Land is merely fabricating her own hurdles to try to keep a viable Democratic candidate off the ballot.

Land is term-limited and Democrats this weekend plan to nominate Jocelyn Benson, a Wayne State University professor of election law, as their candidate to replace her. Unlike the highly partisan Land, Benson has pledged to take an “Oath of Nonpartisanship” promising to be neutral and non-partisan in administering election laws.

The section of Michigan law in question says that once the party selects a replacement candidate, the candidate’s name “shall” be printed on the general election ballot and does not give Land authority to try to block the party’s action. The law states: “The name of the candidate so selected shall be certified immediately by the secretary of the state central committee to the secretary of state and to the board of election commissioners for each county, whose duty it is to prepare the official ballots; and said board shall cause to be printed or placed upon such ballots, in the proper place, the name of the candidate so selected and certified to fill such vacancy.”

(Paid for by the Eighth Democratic Congressional District Committee, P. O. Box 4278, East Lansing, MI 48826)

For anyone who doesn’t understand why this is diary-worthy (or Rec-worthy), I ask you to read the previous diary linked to above.

In addition, I’m working on additional updates/material as I type this, but needed to get this out there ASAP. Every minute is literally of the essence.

Note: I’ve added a scan of the letter in question. As you can see, it was notarized in Pennsylvania on August 17. The text of it reads:

“Pursuant to your request, here is my formal letter of withdrawal from the race for U.S. Congress in Michigan’s 8th District.

I have also taken steps to move my permanent residency back to Pennsylvania, where I am now registered to vote. It is my understanding that these actions should allow you and other officials to remove my name on the November ballot with a replacement candidate. I extend my warmest congratulations and best wishes to the eventual nominee.

All the best to you and everyone in the 8th District.

Sincerely,

[signed] Kande Ngalamulume

Included with the notarized letter declaring his change of residency, his change of voter registration and his explicit request to have himself removed from the November ballot, the letter also included a scan of the receipt he received from his voter registration in Delaware County, Pennsylvania on August 10, 2010.

Finally, both documents included a cover letter from the Michigan Democratic State Central Committee in Lansing, Michigan, sent to Chris Thomas, the Director of the Bureau of Elections, and signed by MDP Chair Mark Brewer, specifically requesting that Kande Ngalamulume be removed from the ballot. The cover letter specifies that all three documents were hand delivered to Mr. Thomas at the Treasury Building in Lansing.

Now, there’s two stories going on here:

The first is the backstory of the original Democratic candidate for MI-08, Kande Ngalamulume, who dropped out of the race back in June, after the Primary filing deadline, resulting in his name being the only one on the Primary ballot. OK, that was entirely his doing and his responsibility.

HOWEVER, the current situation is this: The Michigan Secretary of State’s office has now been hand-delivered official, undeniable, verifiable proof that Mr. Ngalamulume a) no longer lives in Michigan; b) is now legally residing in, and registered to vote in Pennsylvania; and c) Has explicitly and without any ambiguity declared his desire to be removed from the November 2010 Congressional Ballot for Michigan’s 8th District.

Ms. Land’s office could, prior to this development, rightly claim that the situation was not her fault nor her responsibility. However, with the 60-day change-of-ballot deadline quickly approaching (the lead time is needed in order to print and distribute absentee ballots), any further delay in removing Mr. Ngalamulume from the ballot–and, simultaneously, any further delay in replacing his name with that of Lance Enderle–is nothing more than pure political posturing and obstruction, denying the 600,000+ people of Michigan’s 8th Congressional District the right to choose an alternative to Mike “Let’s Drill for Oil in the Great Lakes!” Rogers.

Hopefully the SoS office will stop playing games, go ahead and strip Kande off the ballot, and replace him with Lance’s name immediately. With so little time to spare, however, Lance needs your help!

Find out more about him at his website:

Lance Enderle for Congress

Pony up a few bucks for Lance:

Lance’s ActBlue Page

Lance’s Facebook Page (link will be changed soon but this is the group for now)

Follow Lance on Twitter

Full disclosure: While I’m working at a substantial discount, I am still being paid. Mostly, however, I’m just upset at the mess caused by Kande’s withdrawl and am trying to help salvage the situation.

• AZ-Sen: Bad news! For John McCain! J.D. Hayworth still hasn’t conceded. He’s still waiting for those late-breaking absentee ballots to help him make up that oh-so-narrow 56-32 margin, apparently.

• CT-Sen: This doesn’t seem like it’ll end well for Linda McMahon, whose stance on WWE has been that it’s harmless soap opera. Harley McNaught, the father of recently-deceased pro wrestler Lance Cade (who died of heart failure at age 29 in the wake of painkiller addiction), is going on the offense against McMahon in response to her comments that she “might have met him once.” McNaught said that he’d been to several functions with his son where they’d met McMahon and she’d known him by name, and also ripped the company’s “Wellness Program,” which he says was more about PR than about helping employees.

• DE-Sen: There’s no third-party fallback option for teabagger Christine O’Donnell, challenging Mike Castle for the GOP Senate nomination. The Constitution Party had nominated O’Donnell for its ballot line, but didn’t even receive a ballot line after its membership dwindled to 287(!) members. (That’s less than something called the “Blue Enigma Party,” which still qualified for the ballot.) O’Donnell still can mount a write-in campaign after losing the primary to Castle (which she already did in the 2006 race after losing the primary to Jan Ting).

• KY-Sen: Our James L. summed this up pithily: “Douche Day Afternoon.” Losing Dem Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo’s latest statement of semi-support for Jack Conway was that Conway was “not the best” but that “he’s a heck of a lot better” than Rand Paul, whose “scare[s him].”

• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): The newest Franklin & Marshall poll is another one of their choose-your-own-adventure specials, which shows the dimensions of the enthusiasm gap the Dems are facing, especially in the Keystone State. In the Senate race, Pat Toomey leads Joe Sestak 40-31 among likely voters, but only 31-28 among registered voters, which isn’t much different from where we left off with their last general election poll in May. And in the gubernatorial race, it’s similar, with Tom Corbett leading Dan Onorato 38-27 among LVs, but only 29-28 (probably the best showing I’ve seen in a head-to-head in this race) among RVs.

• FL-Gov: With Hayworth and Murkowski already mentioned today, it’s just turning out to be the big day of GOP disunity and sour grapes all around. While figures like Jeb Bush and state party chair John Thrasher have gotten behind Rick Scott without any major hedging, Bill McCollum is continuing his sulk, flat-out not endorsing Scott.  

• KY-Gov: The aptly-named Republican Agriculture Commissioner, Richie Farmer (I guess “Rich Farmer” was a little too overly descriptive), is still mulling over a run for Governor in next year’s off-year election against Dem incumbent Steve Beshear, where early polling has shown he’d be competitive. He’s also been linked to a possible Lt. Gov. bid, as running mate to state Senate president David Williams.

• SC-Gov: In another sign that a chunk of the local political establishment prefers Dem Vincent Sheheen to GOPer Nikki Haley, Sheheen just got the endorsement of 30 mayors around South Carolina. Most of these mayors are in nonpartisan elected positions, although one, Greer mayor Rick Danner, said he was a two-time voter for Mark Sanford.

• VT-Gov: Faced with the unenviable task of certifying her own gubernatorial primary loss, SoS Deb Markowitz says that the final certification of the super-close race in Vermont will be done on next Tuesday. All five candidates appeared amicably at a unity rally yesterday, but only shortly after Doug Racine’s campaign manager called Peter Shumlin’s declaration of victory premature, saying to wait until Tuesday. Shumlin currently leads Racine by 192 votes.

• AL-02: Rep. Bobby Bright caused some hyperventilating today when it came out that, in meeting with constituents, had punted on the issue of whether or not he’d be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker next session. He did so by listing a number of reasons why that might not be an issue, including the decidedly morbid “heck, she might even get sick and die.”

• CA-18: I don’t know who looks worse in this situation, Mike Berryhill (the Republican launching an uphill, but generally credible, challenge to Rep. Dennis Cardoza), or his former campaign consultant John Villareal. Apparently they parted ways in unpleasant fashion, as Villareal blasted Berryhill’s campaign as a lost cause… but did it in the form of a somewhat unhinged-sounding, 25-minute long rant posted to YouTube.

• OH-17: Jim Traficant may still yet be able to beam himself back into Congress. He just got an extension from Jennifer Brunner, giving him more time to prove that he did collect enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot as an independent. He previously got bounced for the ballot for not having enough valid signatures.

• OR-05: Hot on the heels of a too-good-to-be-true internal from Scott Bruun giving him a small lead a few days ago, Rep. Kurt Schrader hauled out his own internal from Lake Research giving him a pretty comfortable lead: 46-35. The poll’s from late July, though, so one wonders if there’s a more recent one that he’s not sharing.

• PA-08: The ubiquitous POS is out with an internal poll on behalf of ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, giving him a 7-point lead (48-41) over Democratic sophomore Rep. Patrick Murphy. Murphy hasn’t been one of the Dems’ top worries in Pennsylvania, but as we’ve seen in recent weeks, the Dem brand in Pennsylvania seems to be waning particularly quickly.

• VA-05: Tom Perriello, in an interesting bit of distancing from national Dems that’s ambiguous enough that it works from both right and left, called for the replacement of Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner, at a local town hall. He didn’t say who his preferred replacement would be (Robert Reich, anyone?).

• Ads: Lead-off ad of the day is from Alan Grayson in FL-08; the Hotline actually says it makes Grayson look “angelic” and they refer to it as the most positive ad they’ve seen so far from anyone. That Grayson… always zigging when everyone else is zagging. Other Dems out with their first TV ads for themselves today include Kathy Dahlkemper in PA-03, Julie Lassa in WI-07, and Tom Hayhurst in IN-03.

All the GOP ads today are anti-Dem ads being run by third party groups: America’s Future Fund running against Bruce Braley in IA-01, the Heritage Foundation’s lobbying arm against Mike McIntyre in NC-07, and Koch-backed Americans for Prosperity running against Gabrielle Giffords in AZ-08 and a weird two-fer (aimed at the Phoenix market, I guess) attacking both Anne Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell in AZ-01 and AZ-05. NWOTSOTB, on any of the ads.

• Rasmussen:

• CA-Gov: Jerry Brown (D) 40%, Meg Whitman (R) 48%

• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek (D) 21%, Marco Rubio (R) 40%, Charlie Crist (I) 30%

• UT-Gov: Peter Corroon (D) 29%, Gary Herbert (R-inc) 60%

• UT-Sen: Sam Granato (D) 29%, Mike Lee (R) 54%

Public Policy Polling (8/21-22, likely voters, 6/12-13 in parentheses)

Charlie Melancon (D): 41 (37)

David Vitter (R-inc): 51 (46)

Undecided: 8 (17)

Charlie Melancon (D): 40 (NA)

Chet Traylor (R): 39 (NA)

Undecided: 21 (NA)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

Hmmm, Chet Traylor’s bid in the GOP primary against David Vitter was supposedly powered by unnamed figures in the state’s Republican establishment worried about Vitter’s vulnerability to Dem Charlie Melancon (at the peak of the Brent Furer furor). It looks like that was a miscalculation, as Traylor actually manages to lose to Melancon while Vitter’s numbers against Melancon, while not overwhelming, are pretty stable, continuing PPP’s trend of seeing a race in the 10-point ballpark in Vitter’s favor. Vitter’s approvals among the full electorate are 53/41, although they do concede, by a 44-21 margin, that Vitter is “not a good Christian model.” (Also, amusingly, given the choice between whether the respondents’ daughters should be married to either Vitter or Melancon, 55% chose that their daughter shouldn’t be married to any politician.)

Primary numbers (8/21-22, likely voters)

David Vitter (R-inc): 81

Chet Traylor (R): 5

Nick Accardo (R): 4

Undecided: 9

(MoE: ±5.2%)

With the Louisiana primary coming up in a few days, these are the more important numbers right now. Former state supreme court justice Chet Traylor’s late-breaking bid against Vitter was very interesting for the first few days, but at this point we might as well just close the book on it: his fundraising never materialized, his “family values” turned out to be as suspect as Vitter’s, and somehow he manages to be upside-down on favorables among GOP voters. (Traylor’s faves among Republicans are 10/30, compared with Vitter’s 78/17.)

It could be the unlikeliest Senate race match-up of the year: teabagging attorney Joe Miller vs. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams… but we’ll first have to see if Miller is indeed the victor. Since this race is still so unsettled, let’s do a roundup of all the latest news:

The Math: With every precinct reporting, Miller leads Murkowski by 1,668 votes. But there’s the lingering matter of all those absentees, which are still trickling in. Here’s the schedule for counting them:

None of the absentees has been counted. Absentee ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday but could arrive up to 10 days after the election if mailed in the United States and 15 days if overseas. The Division of Elections will do its first count Aug. 31, with additional counts scheduled for Sept. 3 and Sept. 8.

The Alaska Division of Elections says that “more than” 16,000 absentees were requested, and that 7,600 of them have come back so far, but remember — not all of these ballots will be Republican primary votes. One estimate by Anchorage pollster Dave Dittman says that there are 5,000 GOP absentee ballots outstanding, but I’m not sure how that conclusion was reached, or if that guesstimate accounts for the ballots that have yet to trickle in. (Likely not.) In any event, Murkowski is going to have to win this pile by a large margin in order to come back from the grave.

A Third Party Play?: Murkowski says that it’s “premature” to discuss a third-party run before all the absentees come in, but her camp certainly is not ruling it out. One option is a write-in campaign, but the chances of success are pretty dim:

According to the elections coordinator in the Alaska Department of Elections, Murkowski has until October 28 to file as a write-in, in which case write-in votes for her would be counted if the aggregate total of all write-ins is greater than the number of ballots cast for the first-place candidate, or within the range that would require a recount. In the coordinator’s 14 years, this has never happened in a state race.

Another option would be to commandeer the line of a third-party… say, for instance, the Alaskan Independence Party. The first problem is that the AIP didn’t even bother to nominate a candidate for the general election in the first place, casting doubt on whether it’s legally possible for such a play to be engineered. (Remember, Wally Hickel was famously offered the AIP line after losing the GOP primary for the 1990 gubernatorial election, but he was taking over the ballot spot of a previously-nominated candidate.) In any event, the question is entirely academic, as the chair of the AIP has said that they would “absolutely not” let Murkowski join their ranks.

The best option for Murkowski may be to go Libertarian — that party seems entirely willing to listen to any offer she might make:

If Murkowski loses the primary, there is a possibility that she might able to run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election. But that would require the Libertarian Senate candidate, David Haase, to agree to step aside, and for the Alaska Libertarian Party to agree to put Murkowski on the ballot.

Alaska Libertarian Party chairman Scott Kohlaas said he was open to the idea and that party leaders were discussing it. “There’s a chance,” Kohlhaas said on Wednesday.

Haase didn’t rule out the idea, saying he’d certainly listen if Murkowski wanted to step into his place.

Scott McAdams, The Anti-Teabagger: First, I encourage you to read this excellent piece by The Mudflats offering a wealth of background on how Joe Miller came from nowhere to force this nail-biter. The piece also has some color on Democrat Scott McAdams, and the details sound pretty good:

Scott McAdams, little known to Alaskans outside the southeast pan-handle, is a popular small town mayor. He runs the city of Sitka and has balanced budgets, focused on education, served on the school board, and has even figured out how to sell water to India. He was a deckhand on a commercial fishing boat all over the state, and is all the kinds of things that Sarah Palin said she was, before the media began to shine a flashlight in all the dark corners. He’s a “real Alaskan” in the style of the politicians of old, before oil was discovered and turned a libertarian blue state reddish. […]

McAdams who unlike Miller, is a fiscally conservative moderate Democrat, has executive experience, was born and raised in Alaska, and has worked with his hands in the fishing industry, suddenly finds himself with an incredible opportunity. One could even say that attorney and Yale Law grad Joe Miller who was born and raised “Outside” is kind of “elite,” while McAdams is all about Alaska, and “real people.”

And here’s the man in his own words:

McAdams called the tea party-backed Miller too extreme for Alaska, in what is sure to be a theme for the Democrats if Miller turns out to be the Republican nominee.

“I invite people who supported Senator Murkowski to please take a look at our campaign. I believe we are the moderate, rational, practical campaign, not the campaign of extreme measures and 19th-century ideology,” McAdams said.

McAdams said Alaskans value federal appropriations to develop infrastructure and don’t buy proposals such as abolishing the federal Department of Education. Miller has said education is a function to be left to states and localities. He’s argued that if the nation does not slash spending, it is headed for a “sovereign debt crisis” that would be worse for Alaska than less federal money.

I like it — he’s sounding the right notes and drawing the appropriate contrasts. And he certainly has a lot of material to work with; just take a gander, if you haven’t already, at Jed L’s DailyKos profile of Miller’s hard-right, anti-choice, anti-government philosophy. Sure, Joe Miller’s resume is impressive on paper (West Point, Yale Law, Magistrate Judge), but that doesn’t paper over crazy ideas.

No Democratic Switcheroos: The Twittering classes were full of speculation yesterday that some kind of deal would be worked out to swap McAdams on the Democratic ticket with ex-Gov. Tony Knowles, a man who has lost two statewide races in Alaska in the past six years. As we mentioned earlier, Knowles put those rumors to bed, saying he’s not at all interested in a run. McAdams, for his part, is standing absolutely firm, and good for him. Also, good on Mark Begich for lining solidly in McAdams’ corner:

But McAdams has the full support of Democrat Mark Begich, who two years ago pulled off his own successful upset of a Republican senator, Ted Stevens. Begich on Wednesday had this to say of McAdams: “I like what I see.”

“Welcome to Alaskan politics. Anything can happen. Everything’s viable,” Begich said. “It doesn’t take a lot of money, but it takes someone who is committed and hardworking, and can run a campaign. So I tell people and I’ve been telling people that this race shouldn’t be discounted out, and has potential.”

FL-Sen: Five Teamster locals, representing union member across the state, endorsed Charlie Crist yesterday. Meanwhile, Marco Rubio is out with a new ad, a positive family bio spot that is about as un-partisan as you can get. The Palm Beach Post suggests Rubio is trying to appear “above the fray” and let Crist and Kendrick Meek go at each other. NWOTSOTB.

FL-Gov: Mark Blumenthal (with assists from Charles Franklin and Harry Enten) has an interesting look at the final five FL-Gov polls, in an attempt to understand why PPP and Susquehanna came closest. (In passing, Blumenthal also points out that the average error in this batch of FL-Sen polls was twice as big as the FL-Gov average, but because several high-profile pollsters “called” the gube race wrong, those polls are getting more attention than the senate polls.)

AZ-03: State Sen. and fifth-place finisher Pamela Gorman, best-known for her ad in which she fires a bunch of guns, says she won’t endorse Ben Quayle (at least not yet), on account of the vileness he spewed on TheDirty.com. Second- and third-place finishers Steve Moak and Jim Waring, however, say they will support Mr. Potatoe-son.

AZ-08: Those GOPers really can’t shut up about how much they want to destroy Social Security, huh? Check out Jesse Kelly, fresh of his teabagger-fueled upset victory:

“We have to fulfill our promises that we’ve made to people who are on it now, because the government has stolen their money their entire lives, while phasing future generations off. You have to get the future generations off or you’re going to go broke,” he said. “Individual accounts is the key to it.”

Sounds almost exactly like Tom Marino, huh?

FL-22: Ron Klein is up with his first ad of the campaign season, a spot attacking GOPer Allen West for failing to pay taxes. I’m glad to see Klein going on the attack, but given how much utterly insane shit has come out of West’s mouth, it feels a little limp to be going after him on IRS liens. Maybe that issue polled better, who knows. NWOTSOTB.

FL-24: Karen Diebel, one of the crazier GOP candidates in a year just chock-full of `em, has gone AWOL in the wake of her narrow loss to state Rep. Sandy Adams. While third-place finisher Craig Miller has endorsed Adams, Diebel hasn’t said a word. With 100% of precincts reporting, she trails by 0.8%. She’d need to get under 0.5% to trigger a recount (unless she can demonstrate fraud), which I suppose is conceivable once absentee ballots are counted. But even if that were to happen, she’d still have to make up a few hundred votes, which seems impossible.

ID-01: Heh. Remember when the RNC gave money to the Idaho GOP to hire two staffers to help out the utterly feeble Raul Labrador? Turns out things haven’t quite played out that way. One of the two staffers has been re-tasked to work on state races. As for the other guy, who knows?

MI-07: Yesterday we mentioned that AFSCME was launching a new ad against Republican Tim Walberg. Well, those guys don’t mess around. The size of the buy? A cool $750K.

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy is up with his second negative ad in a week, this one attacking GOP Rick Berg on a somewhat unusual issue. Berg apparently promoted a law early last decade which, according to the ad, would allow banks to sell customers’ financial records. The bill was later rejected by voters in a referendum. I call this issue “unusual” because you don’t typically see privacy matters make a big impact on the campaign trail. NWOTSOTB.

VA-02, VA-05: This is nice to see: Sen. Mark Warner is spending some time this recess campaigning for both Glenn Nye and Tom Perriello. It sounds like he just did a fundraiser for Nye yesterday, and has some events on tap with Perriello this weekend. Speaking of Nye, he’s up with his first ad, touting his work in Iraq and how much he enjoys voting against the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, Nye’s opponent, GOPer Scott Rigell, is also up with an ad, attacking Nye for… supporting the Democratic Party. Do you get it yet, dude? They’re going to attack you no matter what, so you might as well sack up and do the right thing. No word on the size of either buy.

Unions: The AFL-CIO and SEIU, which split apart several years back, are trying to join forces once more. The two labor organizations say that they plan to spend at least $88 million between them this cycle, and perhaps more.

Sometimes it’s not the races you lose, but the races you don’t win.  Republicans currently hold a 76-44 advantage in the Florida State House, just 4 seats from a 2/3, veto-overridin’ majority, which could be important with the now distinct possibility of Governor Alex Sink (knock on wood).

This could have, would have, and should have been the year that Democrats finally made up some of that big gap in the State House.  Due to term limits, Republicans have tons of open seats to defend, several of which are in vulnerable districts.  But alas, the poisonous environment of 2010 will probably prevent a Democratic resurgence in the chamber.  In fact, I predict no Dem pickups and two Republican pickups, leaving the chamber 78-42 Republican.

My expectation is that what Florida Democrats were once hoping would be an opportunity for a big gain will end up a stalemate or worse.  It’s like a baseball team losing after leaving 20 runners on base, for those of you who love sports metaphors.  In any event, here is the rundown:

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN

HD-26 – OPEN (Patterson) – This is a dead even district, with maybe a slight Republican tilt, in Volusia and Flagler counties, stretching from the north central Atlantic coast inland to the Deland area.  Term-limited incumbent Pat Patterson faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The Democrat is Volusia County Deputy Superintendent of Schools Michael Huth.  The Republican is Ormond Beach mayor Fred Costello.  Huth has raised $92K to Costello’s $154K.  Given the environment, the financial edge, and Costello’s higher profile as mayor of a significant city, Costello gets the edge.

HD-57 – OPEN (Culp) – This is a slightly Republican-leaning district in the Tampa area.  Term-limited incumbent Faye Culp faced only semi-competitive races for re-election.  The race is a battle between two attorneys: Democrat Stacy Frank and Republican Dana Young.  Frank has raised $197K to Young’s $286K.  Tea Party candidate Matthew Russell may take votes from Young.  Nevertheless, Young has the edge between two strong candidates in this Republican-leaning district.

HD-83 – OPEN (Domino) – This is a dead even district taking in coastal and northern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Carl Domino has faced very tight re-election battles over the past two cycles.  The Democrat is optometrist Mark Marciano.  The Republican is businessman Pat Rooney, the brother of Congressman Tom Rooney and a member of the Rooney family of Steelers football fame.  Marciano has raised a respectable $115K to Rooney’s $154K.  Given Rooney’s financial edge, name recognition, and the environment, the edge goes to Rooney.

HD-87 – OPEN (Hasner) – This is a dead even district, but trending blue, along the coast in Southern Palm Beach County.  Term-limited incumbent Adam Hasner has won re-election by impressive double-digit margins in spite of the tough district.  The Democrat is Assistant State Attorney Hava Holzhauer.  The Republican is Boca Raton City Council Member Bill Hager.  Holzhauer has raised $80K to Hager’s $158K.  With Hager’s financial advantage and higher profile, I expect him to win.

HD-91 – OPEN (Bogdanoff) – This is a slightly Republican district that runs along the cost of Broward County.  Incumbent Ellyn Bogdanoff was elected in 2004, had a semi-competitive race in 2006, and coasted to re-election in 2008.  She is vacating the seat to run for State Senate.  This is another battle between two attorneys: Democrat Barbra Stern and Republican George Moraitis.  Stern has raised $81K to Moraitis’s $114K.  Tea Party candidate John Perez could siphon votes away from Moraitis.  Nevertheless, the edge goes to Moraitis in a tough environment for Democrats.

HD-119 – OPEN (Zapata) – This is a majority Hispanic district in western Miami-Dade County, which is trending blue but has historically elected Republicans.  Term-limited incumbent Juan Zapata is quite popular in the district, and never faced a competitive re-election campaign.  The Democrat is Dade County Farm Bureau Executive Director Katie Edwards.  The Republican is insurance professional Frank Artiles, who has received much of his financial backing from the insurance industry.  Edwards has raised $190K to $154 for Artiles.  There are two third party candidates.  Nestor Iglesias is the obligatory Tea Party spoiler for Artiles, and Graziella Denny is an Indy candidate about whom I have been unable to find any substantive information.  This could be an interesting race, but the national environment and the district’s voting history suggest that Artiles is the favorite.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

LEANS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-11 – Boyd – This is a heavily Republican district in rural North Central Florida.  “Blue Dog” style incumbent Debbie Boyd won the district by 0.2% in a 2008 open seat contest over former Columbia County Commissioner Elizabeth Porter.  Porter is back for a second run.  Boyd has raised $152K to Porter’s $30K, and so she has a strong financial advantage.  She will need every penny.  I expect the electoral environment in this part of Florida to turn against Boyd emphatically, with Porter winning comfortably.  However, Tea Party candidate John Ferentinos may keep Boyd in the game.

TOSS-UP/TILTS REPUBLICAN TAKEOVER

HD-81 – Fetterman – This is a dead even district in the Port St. Lucie area, which is trending blue.  Incumbent Adam Fetterman won a 2008 open seat race by 5%.  This time around, he faces Gayle Harrell, who represented the district in the State House from 2001 to 2009.  Harrell won by large margins in the 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections, but faced a more competitive, 10 point race in 2008.  Fetterman has raised $168K to Harrell’s $171K.  In this environment, Harrell has a small edge in a race that is otherwise almost completely even in every respect.  

LEANS DEMOCRATIC

HD-09 – Rehwinkel-Vasilinda – This is a solidly Democratic district in Tallahassee and the surrounding areas.  Incumbent Michelle Rehwinkel-Vasilinda narrowly defeated African-American Florida State University football star Peter Boulware in an open seat contest in 2008.  Her opponent this time around is social worker Kirk Headley-Perdue, who in spite of her first name is a woman.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda has raised $137K to Headley-Perdue’s $95K.  Rehwinkel-Vasilinda should hold on in this blue district against an opponent who lacks the unique local appeal of Boulware.

HD-51 – Long – This is a dead even district in southwestern Pinellas County.  Incumbent Janet Long won this seat in 2006 by less than 1%, and was re-elected in 2008 by a more comfortable 16%.  Her opponent is businessman Larry Ahern.  Long has raised $160K to Ahern’s $44K.  A purported March poll of the district, the details of which were not released, claimed a 7-point lead for Long.  Tea Party candidate Victoria Torres should only help Long to hold the seat.  Long should have an edge here, and it actually would not surprise me if the mystery poll turned out to be accurate.

HD-52 – Heller – This is a slightly Democratic district in the St. Petersburg area.  Incumbent Bill Heller won the seat in 2006 by 8%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 20%.  His opponent is businessman Jeff Brandes.  Heller has raised $89K to $134K for Brandes.  Heller is an institution in the area, and he should win despite a strong effort from Brandes.  

HD-69 – Fitzgerald – This is a dead even district based in Sarasota.  Fitzgerald was elected in 2006 by 2% and re-elected by only 4% in 2008.  His opponent is former Sarasota County Commissioner Ray Pilon, who has lost two races for Sarasota County Sheriff since leaving the County Commission.  Fitzgerald has raised $156K to Pilon’s $73K.  This could be a tough race, but Fitzgerald should hold on given his financial advantage.  He is used to being targeted, and Pilon is not the toughest candidate he has faced.

HD-107 – Garcia – This is a majority Hispanic, Miami area district, which is historically Republican but trending Democratic.  Incumbent Luis Garcia was elected to the seat in 2006 by 4%, and was re-elected in 2008 by 10%.  His opponent is Gustavo Barreiro, who represented the district in the State House from 1999 through 2007.  Mr. Barreiro was very popular while in office, coasting to re-election term after term.  However, after leaving office, he was fired from his job at the Department of Juvenile Justice when pornographic images were allegedly found on his computer.  Garcia has raised $122K to Barreiro’s $46K.  While I would not necessarily consider Barreiro’s porn problem disqualifying, Garcia has a distinct edge in light of both that incident and Garcia’s financial advantage.

Ward Research for the Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Hawaii News Now (8/10-17, likely voters, 4/23-28 in parens):

Neil Abercrombie (D): 49 (36)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 44 (32)

Undecided: 8 (21)

(MoE: ±4.8%)

General election numbers:

Neil Abercrombie (D): 53 (49)

Duke Aiona (R): 41 (35)

Undecided: 6 (16)

Mufi Hannemann (D): 54 (48)

Duke Aiona (R): 37 (35)

Undecided: 9 (17)

(MoE: ±4.0%)

This one’s been sitting on our shelf for a couple of days, so now’s a good time to clear the decks before it starts to collect dust. Note that Ward Research has shifted away from their unusual approach in sampling that they deployed back in May and gone for a more conventional sample.

Favorable ratings for all three of these guys are pretty even: Aiona’s at 57-31, Abercrombie’s at 57-36, and Hannemann’s at 55-38. In the general election, both Democrats lose independents to Aiona by varying degrees (Abercrombie by 41-49 and Hannemann by 32-52) and aren’t holding onto Democrats very strongly (Hannemann leads among Dems by 72-21 and Abercrombie leads by 71-24). The problem remains, though, that there are just way more Democrats than Republicans in Hawaii. Aiona has a shot, but he’ll probably need the Democratic primary to get a bit nastier first.

Here is my first attempt at redistricting Pennsylvania. This one will be much better.

Chris Carney, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Kathy Dahlkemper, and Mark Critz are all Democratic Congressmen representing districts that Obama lost. I’m going to fix that. This plan creates 14 Congressional districts (out of 18) where the Democrats are favored to win. It preserves communities of interest. It looks much cleaner and less gerrymandered than the current map. And it has a VRA district that’s the most Democratic district in America.

Click for a larger map

1st District Bob Brady (D)

East Philadelphia (yellow)

New 70%O 29%M Old 88%O 12%M

63% White, 11% Black, 17% Hispanic, 7% Asian

It’s a big drop from 88% to 70% but he’s still safe.

2nd District Chaka Fattah (D)

West Philadelphia (dark blue)

New 96%O 4%M Old 90%O 10%M

13% White, 75% Black, 6% Hispanic, 4% Asian

Compare the demographics of districts 1 and 2, and then notice that what separates them is mostly a single straight line. That’s how segregated Philadelphia is. This is the most Democratic district in the country. Since Pennsylvania has enough votes to spare, it should compete for that honor.

3rd District Brian Lentz (D)

Delaware County, southern Chester County (brown)

New 58%O 41%M Old 56%O 43%M

75% White, 16% Black, 4% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It gets all of Delaware County, including the black parts currently in PA-1. This makes it 2 points more Democratic.

4th District Allyson Schwartz (D)

Montgomery County (green)

New 62%O 37%M Old 59%O 41%M

80% White, 9% Black, 3% Hispanic, 6% Asian

Most of Montgomery County is now one solid compact district, and it’s safe Dem.

5th District Patrick Murphy (D)

Bucks County (orange)

New 54%O 45%M Old 54%O 45%M

88% White, 4% Black, 3% Hispanic, 4% Asian

It’s a tiny bit more Democratic than it was before. If you keep all of Bucks County in one district then there’s not much you can do.

6th District Jim Gerlach (R) or Manan Trivedi (D)

West Chester, Coatesville, Reading (peach)

New 55%O 44%M Old 58%O 41%M

81% White, 6% Black, 10% Hispanic, 3% Asian

If Jim Gerlach gets reelected this year then this plan won’t work. If he keeps winning 52% of the vote in his district then he’ll win a safe 55% of the vote in a district that’s 3% more Republican. The only way to dislodge him will be to put some lower Montgomery County in this district and then put a lot of Berks County in Allyson Schwartz’s district. It will be ugly and un-communities-of-interest-ish and no one wants that. However if Trivedi wins this year (and I think he will) then he should be able to hold a 55% Obama district that gets more Democratic every year and is centered around his home in Berks County.

7th District Charlie Dent (R)

Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton (pale blue)

New 57%O 42%M Old 56%O 43%M

79% White, 5% Black, 12% Hispanic, 2% Asian

At 57% Obama it will have to go Democratic eventually. This counts towards one of the 14 D’s.

8th District Tim Holden (D) vs Paul Kanjorski (D)

Wilkes-Barre, Pottsville, Stroudsburg (lime green)

New 53%O 45%M Old 57%O 42%M

88% White, 4% Black, 6% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Obama won a 50% plurality in this part of Schuylkill County and he got 56% of Luzerne. It’s not the best at communities of interest. It has a liberal city (Wilkes-Barre), rich liberal rural area (Monroe Co), poor rural barely-Democratic areas (Carbon, Schuylkill, rest of Luzerne Co) and conservative suburbs (Northampton and Lehigh Co). If Kanjorski beats Barletta this year then it’s worth taking our chances on a 53% Obama district, especially with Monroe County which is quickly getting more populous and more Democratic. If Barletta wins then a 14-4 plan goes out the window, and instead Barletta gets a more Republican version of this district, and Carney gets a safe Scranton and Wilkes-Barre district.

9th District Chris Carney (D)

Scranton, State College, Northern Tier (pink)

New 52%O 46%M Old 45%O 54%M

93% White, 2% Black, 3% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Carney gets a 52% Obama district. I’m sure he’ll appreciate that as he drives 300 miles to a townhall in Warren. It has 2 different centers of population, Scranton and State College, but so what, lots of congressional districts have 2 different centers of population (right?). Carney is the second biggest winner from this plan.

10th District Glenn Thompson (R)

Williamsport, Bloomsburg, Lebanon (cyan)

New 41%O 58%M Old 44%O 55%M

93% White, 3% Black, 3% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is the first of 4 Republican districts. It’s the only one with any chance of going Democratic within the decade. Maybe it’s 10 years behind NY-20 (a comparable rural northern district) and will trend Democratic.

11th District Todd Platts (R)

Lancaster County, York County, Adams County (blue-purple)

New 37%O 62%M Old 43%O 56%M

94% White, 2% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This district is as Republican as the current PA-19 was 10 years ago. This is the smallest (densest) Republican district. It is trending Democratic, but not fast enough for a Democrat to win it within the next decade.

12th District open

Lancaster, York, Harrisburg (gray)

New 54%O 45%M

76% White, 11% Black, 9% Hispanic, 2% Asian

Obama won each of the 3 county fragments and narrowly lost the Cumberland part. Since we can make a Democratic district out of the 3 mid-state cities and their suburbs, we should.

13th District Bill Shuster (R)

Chambersburg, Bedford, Altoona (turquoise)

New 34%O 64%M Old 35%O 63%M

95% White, 2% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

Definitely the most Republican district in the Northeast, maybe one of the 20 most Republican districts in the country. And it no longer reaches west to suck up Democratic votes in Fayette and Indiana counties.

14th District Mark Critz (D)

Washington, Uniontown, Johnstown (red)

New 50%O 49%M Old 49%O 50%M

93% White, 4% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It’s a thicker, less gerrymandered-looking version of the Critz district. It has the least % Obama of all 14 Democratic districts. Obama only won a 50% plurality, but as you know, this area is more Democratic at the local level than the presidential level. Obama won the Beaver, Washington, Indiana, and Clearfield parts of this district. Out of the 14, I think this is the district that is most likely to go Republican within the next decade.

15th District Mike Doyle (D)

Pittsburgh, Braddock, McKeesport (purple)

New 56%O 44%M Old 70%O 29%M

86% White, 8% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

In order to protect 4 incumbents in Western PA Mike Doyle had to take one for the team. Pittsburgh gets spread between 2 districts. Still, at 56% Obama, and stronger at the local level, it shouldn’t be a problem for Doyle or any Democrat who succeeds him.

16th District Jason Altmire (D)

Pittsburgh, Ross, Lower Burrell (green)

New 55%O 44%M Old 44%O 55%M

80% White, 15% Black, 1% Hispanic, 2% Asian

By losing Butler County and gaining half of Pittsburgh, Altmire is the biggest winner from this redistricting plan. Hopefully Altmire is adaptable, and this district will allow him (or force him) to vote more liberally.

17th District Tim Murphy (R)

Greensburg, Butler, Punxsutawney (yellow)

New 38%O 61%M Old 44%O 55%M

97% White, 1% Black, 1% Hispanic, 1% Asian

It doesn’t look like Tim Murphy’s old district, but 23% of it overlaps with his old district. After putting anything remotely Democratic in a Democratic district, this is what you have leftover.

18th District Kathy Dahlkemper (D)

Erie, Hermitage, New Castle (blue)

New 52%O 47%M Old 49%O 49%M

91% White, 5% Black, 2% Hispanic, 1% Asian

This is about the most Democratic possible compact northwestern district. As Mercer, Lawrence and Beaver trend Republican, Erie is trending more Democratic, so that should help the district stay Democratic.

The latest count:

Seven more precincts have been counted, leaving just two precincts (and a load of absentees) outstanding, and Murkowski has cut the deficit to 1,492 votes from around the 2,000 mark. That gives the Murkowski camp a bit of hope, however faint, that the absentees could be enough to tip this thing back to her.

If Miller ends up winning and Murkowski wants to explore her third-party options, well, it seems that it would have to be Libertarian or bust:

Alaska Division of Elections Director Gail Fenumiai told me it’s too late for Murkowski to file to have her name appear on the ballot as an independent, so that would need to be a write-in effort. There is a Libertarian candidate in the race, Frederick Haase, who could choose to step down. The Libertarian Party could then select a replacement for him on the ballot.

There is no other third party candidate in the U.S. Senate race, so Libertarian would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run.

And as for Democratic nominee (and Sitka mayor) Scott McAdams, he announced today on a conference call organized by the Alaska Democratic Party that he will not be stepping aside for another candidate.

UPDATE: 100% is now in, and Miller netted a couple hundred extra votes. Also, we can put the Tony Knowles rumors to bed:

Knowles, however, told POLITICO Wednesday that he’s not interested in running for Senate again.

“I do not want to run for the office of Senate again,” said Knowles, who lost to Murkowski by a slim margin in her first bid for a full term in 2004. She had been appointed to the seat in 2002 by her father, then-GOP Gov. Frank Murkowski, a move that generated a considerable amount of controversy at the time.

“All of the deadlines are passed. That was a decision that had to be made by the 1st of June,” Knowles said. “But am I interested in running? No.”