AK-Sen: Stay Classy, Joe Miller!

Joe Miller tweets:

What’s the difference between selling out your party’s values and the oldest profession? http://bit.ly/93kXBr #teaparty #tcot #alaska #ak

UPDATE: I see that Joe Miller quickly pulled the plug on that tweet. But don’t worry, James Hell has the screenshot!

LATER UPDATE: The Murkowski campaign is furious:

Sean Cockerham spoke with Murkowski’s campaign manager John Bitney, who had this to say:

“He just basically called Senator Murkowski a prostitute,” Bitney said. “I am doing my best in a moment of extreme anger right at the moment to be measured in my remarks. The word that comes to mind is deplorable. Disgusting. The man has no place representing Alaska in the U.S. Senate with that kind of attitude.”

Bitney said this is being watched nationally and Miller should be ashamed to take it to that level. “He owes Alaskans an apology.”

StephenCLE’s 2010 Governor Predictions – Initial Picks

StephenCLE’s Governor Races 2010 Preview –

Current governor breakdown – 26 democrats, 24 republicans

38 seats are up for grabs in 2010

First up, here’s the map:

US Governors 2010

Now for the wordy roundup of each race (although some aren’t so wordy):

Alabama – Ron Sparks vs Robert Bentley – This is a race that would in a normal year look interesting because of Alabama’s penchant for electing conservative democrats every now and then.  However, with a republican wave set to sweep the nation and the south in particular, I don’t give Sparks much of a chance here.  Bentley by 20 points at least.

Rating – Solid R

Alaska – Sean Parnell vs Ethan Berkowitz – With the Senate race surprisingly haywire a few days ago, a lot of attention has been thrown Alaska’s way, but not for this race.  Parnell is safe.

Rating – Solid R

Arizona – Jan Brewer vs Terry Goddard – Now this is a race that looks interesting and that has had several twists and turns already and could have more down the stretch.  Goddard looked like a shoo-in until Jan Brewer signed the infamous SB 1070, igniting the whole immigration debate once again.  Polls have been mixed, but I feel Brewer is definitely ahead, but this race has the potential to be quite volatile.  It could boil down ultimately to whether Arizona’s immense Hispanic population turns out or not.  

Rating – Lean R

Arkansas – Jim Keet vs Mike Beebe – Unlike the rest of the south region, it looks like Arkansas is a safe haven for popular governor Mike Beebe.  Polls show him leading by 15-20 points right now.  Safe for now, but I could see a scenario where Blanche Lincoln drags down his victory margin if she fails to get 40% in the Senate race.

Rating – Safe D

California – Meg Whitman vs Jerry Brown – This has been a really close race since the start, but a lot of that is because Whitman, former EBay CEO, has absolutely gone crazy with saturating the airwaves, spending tens of millions of her own money.  Former governor Jerry Brown, who is the democratic nominee, hasn’t gone to the advertising well much as of yet.  Hard to tell what will happen in the polls once he does, but I’d think he’d get at least a slight bounce.  Close one right now, I think Brown will win in the end though.  

Rating – Toss Up

Colorado – Dan Maes vs John Hickenlooper vs Tom Tancredo – A total clustereff for the GOP, as their top man, Scott McInnis, got thrown to the curb following news of plagiarism in his past.  The ordeal prompted conservative blowhard Tom Tancredo to run as an independent, and between him and the rather weak GOP candidate, Dan Maes, the right is horrible split.  Unless one or the other collapses at some point, Hickenlooper will walk into office.

Rating – Likely D

Connecticut – Tom Foley vs Dan Malloy – Jodi Rell’s retirement really helped out the democrats here, as their candidate, former Stamford mayor Dan Malloy, is holding a big lead over GOP candidate Tom Foley.  That, coupled with the overall lean of the state leads me to believe that this one is almost in the bag.  Malloy would really have to screw up to not win.

Rating – Likely D

Florida – Rick Scott vs Alex Sink vs Bud Chiles – Florida is chock-full of 3-way races this cycle, and with Bud Chiles pulling at least 10% in most polls, I throw him in here, but really the race is between Rick Scott and Alex Sink.  Scott is a rich, teabagging jerkoff that won this seat solely because of his riches, as the much stronger GOP establishment fave, Bill McCollum, got swallowed in negative ads.  Scott’s favorables are in the tank.  Sink, Florida’s CFO, has mostly stayed away from the fray so far, and her favorables are still quite good.  Despite the year and the fickleness of Florida politically, I like Sink right now to win.

Rating – Lean D

Georgia – Nathan Deal vs Roy Barnes – Georgia is a state that in an environment like this should be out of reach to Team Blue.  But the democrats nominated a strong candidate in former governor Roy Barnes, while Team Red went with the ethically-questionable 9th house district rep Nathan Deal.  The candidate strength disparity is keeping this one competitive and I think it’ll be a fight all the way.  In the end I expect the republican surge, and the southern surge in particular (R’s lead by 20+ on the generic ballot in the southeast), to carry Deal across the finish line.

Rating – Toss Up

Hawaii – Duke Aiona vs Neil Abercrombie/Mufi Hannemann – The democratic primary hasn’t been held yet here, but unless things really get ugly between Abercrombie and Hannemann, I expect either will crush Aiona in November.  

Rating – Solid D

Idaho – Butch Otter vs Keith Allred – This race isn’t going to be much worth watching.  Otter should cruise in this hugely red state.

Rating – Solid R

Illinois – Bill Brady vs Pat Quinn – This race to me is a real shocker.  On the GOP side, you have a deeply conservative candidate from downstate that should never, ever, in a million years be elected statewide in Illinois.  Yet it seems that governor Pat Quinn is so universally hated by the masses that he is going to end up losing.  I don’t understand why Quinn is so unpopular, and I want to believe that he can come back and win, but once you get below the SSP-coined “Corzine Line”, it’s very difficult to pull yourself up.

Rating – Lean R

Iowa – Terry Branstad vs Chet Culver – Another Midwestern governor’s race where it appears that the incumbent is so reviled that he has no chance.  Culver isn’t quite as hated as Quinn, but he’s also facing a much tougher opponent in former governor Terry Branstad.  

Rating – Likely R

Kansas – Sam Brownback vs Tom Holland – Blowout city.  Next.

Rating – Solid R

Maine – Paul LePage vs Elizabeth Mitchell – Wait, could you repeat those names again?  That’s the story of the Maine race right now, as neither is well-known.  Supposedly, LePage is too conservative for the state as a whole, but given that state’s past history, I’m somewhat ambivalent.  For now, I’ll stick with the PVI and say that Mitchell is slightly favored.  I haven’t seen any polling here recently either, and most early polling was by Scotty Rass.  

Rating – Toss Up

Maryland – Bob Ehrlich vs Martin O’Malley – Here’s a race that I don’t quite understand.  Martin O’Malley has generally decent, even good, favorables and resides in an extremely blue state.  Yet former governor Bob Ehrlich is within 5 points of him in the polls.  Maryland is an almost impossible state for Team Red, so unless the economy really goes to shit between now and November, I don’t see how Ehrlich can win.  It wouldn’t surprise me if O’Malley started pulling away at some point if his favorables stay +5-+10 where they are now.  

Rating – Lean D

Massachusetts – Charlie Baker vs Deval Patrick vs Tim Cahill – Here’s another three-way, and it was a pretty close one too until the RGA went hard negative against indy Tim Cahill, knocking him down into the teens in the polls.  Deval Patrick is leading by 7-10 points generally, but he’s below 40% in most surveys.  Still, I don’t see MA electing republican senators and governors back to back.  The democratic base may not like Patrick, but nose-holding is practically a pastime in Massachusetts.

Rating – Lean D

Michigan – Rick Snyder vs Virg Bernero – Let me start by saying that I absolutely adore Virg Bernero, I think he’s probably the greatest progressive nominee the Democrats have in the governor’s area this cycle.  But, the bad thing is, he may be too liberal even for Michigan, and he’s going up against a centrist in Rick Snyder.  Polls are showing Snyder way ahead too.  It looks like this is a case of the outgoing governor being so unpopular that it drags down the current nominee.  What a shame.

Rating – Lean R

Minnesota – Tom Emmer vs Mark Dayton – This is the one state in the Midwest that hasn’t seemed to lose it’s democratic leanings, at least as far as governors are concerned.  Former senator Mark Dayton appears to be on pace to take out GOP nominee Tom Emmer by a wide margin.  Better yet, the latter probably won’t be able to eat at a restaurant in Minnesota without having his food spat in for the rest of his life.

Rating – Likely D

Nebraska – Dave Heineman vs Dave Meister – The only question here is, does Heineman feel like becoming a senator?  He’s got it if he wants it in 2012.

Rating – Solid R

Nevada – Brian Sandoval vs Rory Reid – The republicans in NV did themselves a favor by kicking unpopular governor Jim Gibbons to the curb in favor of attorney general Brian Sandoval.  The latter has had a few hiccups on the campaign trail already, but is a huge favorite over Rory Reid, who is probably unpopular solely due to his last name.  

Rating – Likely R

New Hampshire – undetermined vs John Lynch – The republican candidate is yet to be determined in New Hampshire, but incumbent governor John Lynch is doing very well in the polls and has very solid favorables.  Safe, even though NH has turned rightward this cycle.

Rating – Solid D

New Mexico – Susana Martinez vs Diane Denish – This could be one of the closest and most intriguing races of the cycle.  Dona Ana county district attorney Susana Martinez is the republican candidate, her opponent is lieutenant governor Diane Denish.  From what I can tell both of these individuals have good favorables and the campaign thus far has been low key and positive.  Polling is close as well, with most giving Martinez a small lead at the moment.  NM is a democratic state, but the year is republican.  This one’s going to be a tough cookie.

Rating – Toss Up

New York – undetermined vs Andrew Cuomo – The republicans haven’t determined their candidate here yet, but it won’t matter, as popular AG Andrew Cuomo will demolish whoever his opponent is.

Rating – Solid D

Ohio – John Kasich vs Ted Strickland – Here’s another tough race.  Former Lehman Brothers higher-up John Kasich is the republican nominee, and he takes on incumbent Ted Strickland, who breezed to victory 4 years ago.  The environment now is vastly different, and this election so far has centered upon jobs.  The question here is whether or not Ohio voters are willing to pin the blame for Ohio’s economy on Strickland or if they will attribute it more to factors outside of his control.  I’m definitely not as confident about this one as I was two months ago, but it’ll still be a fierce fight all the way.

Rating – Toss Up

Oklahoma – Mary Fallin vs Jari Askins – In a year like this, states like Oklahoma is simply out of the discussion for Team Blue.  It’s a shame, because Askins isn’t half bad as a candidate.

Rating – Solid R

Oregon – Chris Dudley vs John Kitzhaber – This is a race that I can’t quite get a handle on.  John Kitzhaber is a former governor of Oregon, and from polling thus far, is still relatively popular in the state.  Yet, he’s locked in a tight battle against former NBA player Chris Dudley, who from what I know about him has little to no political experience.  That, coupled with the democratic lean of Oregon, makes me to want to give Kitzhaber the advantage, but for now I will defer to the polls.  Of all the toss-ups though, I’m most confident that the democrats will win this one.

Rating – Toss Up

Pennsylvania – Tom Corbett vs Dan Onorato – I don’t know much about Tom Corbett, but apparently he is very popular with the republican base, and more importantly, independents, in Pennsylvania.  He is the sitting attorney general, while his opponent Dan Onorato is Allegheny county executive.  There are two scary things about this race, first off that Pennsylvania, which usually leans democratic, has gotten way away from it’s roots and looks like a likely R state at the moment.  Second, even though Onorato was arguably the best candidate the democrats had at their disposal, he’s still down around 10 points.  Ouch.

Rating – Likely R

Rhode Island – undetermined vs Frank Caprio vs Lincoln Chafee – Here’s another 3-way race, but it’s really a 3INO.  (3-way In Name Only)  The republican has no shot at winning, but polling has been relatively close between democrat Frank Caprio and independent former senator Lincoln Chafee.  The funny thing about this race is, if Chafee wins, he’ll probably be more liberal/progressive than Caprio, so an Ind Pickup is really the same or better as a Dem Pickup here.

Rating – Lean D

South Carolina – Nikki Haley vs Vincent Sheheen – This is a race that looks bad on paper for Team Blue, but has the possibility of getting interesting.  The SC GOP good ole boys clearly had a problem with Haley, and tried to sabotage her on several occasions in the primary, most notably with unsubstantiated allegations of infidelity.  The dem candidate, Vincent Sheheen, is a fairly strong campaigner who will be looking to capitalize on the GOP establishment’s dissatisfaction with Haley.  In a year like this, it’ll be very tough but certainly not impossible.

Rating – Lean R

South Dakota – Dennis Daaguard vs Scott Heidepriem – This won’t be much of a race.  Daaguard big.

Rating – Solid R

Tennessee – Bill Haslam vs Mike McWherter – Ditto for this one.  Haslam to romp.

Rating – Solid R

Texas – Rick Perry vs Bill White – Now this is the one southern governorship (other than perhaps Georgia, I don’t consider Florida southern persay) that has a chance of going red to blue.  Rick Perry is an extremely unpopular incumbent, probably similar to Chet Culver in Iowa.  The difference between Perry and Culver is twofold, first off the year which leans republican, and second the states in which they represent.  But if any democrat has a chance of cracking extremely republican Texas in a year like this, popular Houston mayor Bill White is it.  This is a race that probably leans Perry at the moment, but will probably buck the rightward trend of the nation as we get down the stretch.

Rating – Lean R

Utah – Gary Herbert vs Peter Corroon – Corroon was actually a decent get for the democrats as he is the mayor (I think) of Salt Lake county.  That being said, like Oklahoma, in a year like this, Utah is hopeless.

Rating – Solid R

Vermont – Brian Dubie vs Peter Shumlin – It amazes me that a state as liberal and democratic as Vermont could elect a republican governor here, but the democrats nominated their weakest possible candidate, Peter Shumlin, and Dubie is actually quite popular in VT.  I have this one at tossup, mostly because of the gigantic democratic lean of the state, but if polling continues to show Dubie ahead I might have to trust the polls at some point.

Rating – Toss Up

Wisconsin – Scott Walker vs Tom Barrett – This has the makings of another close race in what is usually a fairly swingy state.  The republican candidate is Milwaukee County executive Scott Walker, and in a backyard brawl of sorts he faces democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett.  Polling so far has shown this as either a dead heat or a very small lead for Walker. Incumbent governor Jim Doyle isn’t all that popular, which hurts Barrett, but I don’t get the feeling that democrats have felt a big backlash in Wisconsin like they have in some other states in the region.  

Rating – Toss Up

Wyoming – Matt Mead vs Leslie Petersen – Cmon now, this is Wyoming in 2010.  Nothing to see here.  

Rating – Solid R

Recap – Well, the governor’s races this cycle for the most part lean republican, but the results vary greatly from state to state and region to region.  Overall I have the democrats picking up governorships in Hawaii, Connecticut, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and California.  The republicans will pick up governorships in New Mexico, Ohio, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Tennessee.  Many of these races are close, and are closely tied to voter discontent and the economy, much more so even than Senate or House races.  Therefore we could see some great volatility in these rankings before we reach the end of the campaign in November.

2010 Governors Big Board

Solid Dem – 4 seats

Arkansas

Hawaii

New Hampshire

New York

Likely Dem – 3 seats

Colorado

Connecticut

Minnesota

Lean Dem – 4 seats

Florida

Maryland

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Toss Up – 8 seats

California

Georgia

Maine

New Mexico

Ohio

Oregon

Vermont

Wisconsin

Lean Rep – 5 seats

Arizona

Illinois

Michigan

South Carolina

Texas

Likely Rep – 3 seats

Iowa

Nevada

Pennsylvania

Solid Rep – 10 seats

Alabama

Alaska

Idaho

Kansas

Nebraska

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Utah

Wyoming

AK-Sen: Libertarians, Lawyers, The Fed, and Other Updates

We did this yesterday, and by God, we’re doing it again. It’s time to sort out the craziness that is the Alaska Senate race.

  • The Math: Our own Jeffmd, the mad scientist of SSP Labs, forecast earlier today that Murkowski may actually lose ground once the absentee and provisional votes are counted. However, Jeff’s math assumed 7,500 GOP absentees and 5,000 provisionals (or “questioned” ballots) would be counted. That number may come in a bit higher than that. From the Anchorage Daily News:

    Elections officials on Thursday evening released the first detailed breakdown of the remaining ballots.

    The state has received back 11,266 absentee ballots so far out of over 16,000 requested. The ballots had to be postmarked by Tuesday’s election but can come in as much as 15 days afterward.

    There are also 658 early votes not yet counted and 8,972 questioned ballots. A ballot can be “questioned” for several reasons. Often the reason is that the voter cast the ballot in a precinct other than where they live.

    Of course, it’s worth repeating that some of these ballots will be counted toward the Democratic primary (although Murkowski’s campaign manager, who observed the sorting of absentee ballots at the Division of Elections, said that a “very, very high percentage” of the ballots were Republican) and some will ultimately be disqualified. Counting the ballots should be a deliciously tense affair for all involved, and Joe Miller has already lashed out at Murkowski for calling in an NRSC lawyer in an attempt to “pull an Al Franken”. (I think the more appropriate term would be “pull a Norm Coleman”, but clearly Miller knows how to ace the lunatic cultural litmus test of the right.)

  • The Schedule: Here’s the timetable for the outstanding ballot count:

    The Division of Elections plans to count all the absentee ballots on Aug. 31 that it has received by then. Some of the questioned ballots will be disqualified; for example if it turns out the voter really wasn’t registered in Alaska. Those that are valid will likely be counted on Sept. 3. Elections officials said they’ll do a final count of absentees and any other remaining ballots on Sept. 8.

    Circle those dates on your calendar — especially the 31st, which should represent the biggest chunk of outstanding ballots.

  • “Considering All Options”: Murkowski’s camp is staying tight-lipped on the possibility of pursuing a third-party bid, but there are definitely some signs that she’s seriously considering it. Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who ran for Governor against Sarah Palin in 2006 as an indie, has apparently begun reaching out to Libertarian nominee David Haese about a possible third-party run for Murkowski:

    There is a possibility that Murkowski could run on the Libertarian ticket in the November general election if she loses the Republican primary. The Alaska Libertarian Party is discussing the possibility and its Senate candidate, David Haase, has said he is open to talking to Murkowski about him stepping aside.

    Andrew Halcro, a Murkowski supporter who served with her in the state Legislature, called Haase on Wednesday and discussed the possibility. Halcro said he was acting on his own and not coordinating with the Murkowski campaign.

    Halcro said he did bring it up with Murkowski on Thursday morning. “She said what she’s told (the media), that she’s considering all the options,” he said.

  • Strings Attached: But what price would Murkowski have to pay in order to secure a ballot position from the Libertarians? By the sounds of it, Haese has one pet issue near and dear to his heart… nationalizing the Federal Reserve:

    Libertarian Haase is the only third party candidate in the race, so that would be the only option for Murkowski to join a new party for a run. Haase would surely press Murkowski on the Federal Reserve, which is his focus. “Let’s take the Federal Reserve, nationalize it and take that income earning capacity and turn it over to the people to finance Social Security and Medicare,” Haase said.

    Putting aside the mind-boggling reality of a Libertarian who wants to protect Social Security and Medicare… I have to admit that I’m mystified as to what exactly “nationalizing” the Fed would entail. But, hey, no one reads SSP for the policy! Anyhow, I wonder if Murkowski’s support of a David Vitter amendment which supported a stronger audit of the Fed than the one that ultimately passed might endear her to the Libertarians.

  • McAdams Gears Up: While Miller and Murkowski go into a state of vigil, Democratic nominee Scott McAdams, the mayor of Sitka, is busy exciting Democratic activists on the ground in Alaska. The Mudflats has video of a speech McAdams gave to a gathering of Alaska Dems on Wednesday night, and I like what I’m hearing – the man knows how to work a room. In case you’d rather not sit through a ten-minute video, Real Clear Politics has a partial recap:

    McAdams soothed some of the heartburn within the party after his first conference call with reporters on Wednesday, in which he came across as poised and up to speed on statewide issues. Then in a speech on Wednesday at the Alaska Democrats Unity Dinner in Anchorage, McAdams made it clear that he will not make the same mistake that Murkowski did in neglecting to define Miller early.

    The Democratic nominee struck an aggressively contemptuous note, referred to “this Joe Miller character” and calling him a “fringe character.”

    The man’s got some game:

    As McAdams also demonstrated on Wednesday, he will also seize upon the very platform that appealed so much to Miller’s fiscally conservative to libertarian primary voters. After all, it won’t be easy for a candidate who vows to fight government largess to win a general election in Alaska-the state that has long benefited more than any other from federal pork projects.

    “I hear him talk about the end of federal investment in Alaska,” McAdams said on Wednesday, eliciting uproarious laughter from the crowd of Democrats in attendance.

    “There’s a vote getter!” an anonymous voice in the crowd shouted, causing another eruption from the crowd.

    McAdams continued to hammer home the point. “But the good news is that we as Democrats stand up for working people,” he said. “We believe in job creation. We believe that Alaska as a young state deserves to be developed like every other western state in the history of the United States.”

    • Observant swingnuts can probably tell that I’ve been very, very sour on Democratic hopes in general this cycle for quite some time. But, it’s the Sharron Angles and the Rand Pauls and the Joe Millers of this world that make this cycle, at the very least, a lot more competitive and entertaining to watch than it has any right to be. For now, the more I think about this race, the more I like it.

    AK-Sen: Absentees (and Provisionals) May Hurt Murkowski

    I haven’t been up with SSP as much as I would have liked to be over the past few days, but the brewing brouhaha in Alaska was too good for me to pass up.

    First, let’s take a quick look at the geography of the vote, by state house district (blue for Murkowski, red for Miller):

    Murkowski did well in the southeastern part of the state, as well as the Arctic North, and the Aleutians. In the Anchorage-area inset below, you can also see that she did well in the Dem-leaning (and less GOP-vote heavy) Anchorage-city districts, but got absolutely crushed in the GOP-vote-rich Mat-Su Valley north of the city (no surprise, given Palin’s involvement).

    For the analysis and maps presented here, I use Alaska House of Representative Districts, numbering 40 in total. I also rely extensively on 2008 absentee and provisional ballot rates, which I think is a reliable assumption; Election Day only turnout between the two contests is remarkably similar:

    I’d also hoped to use Young v. Parnell in 2008 as a proxy for Murkowski and Miller respectively, but the correlation there isn’t as strong:

    Between the 40 House Districts, there was a huge variation in the percentage of GOP ballots that were cast absentee in 2008, ranging from 2.96% in HD-39 (Nome), to 20.47% in the Anchorage-based HD-18.

    Using this analysis, the outcome already begins to look grim for Lisa Murkowski. Here is a comparison of her Election Day performance and the percentage of votes cast absentee in 2008:

    From this, I think we can expect fewer absentee ballots from her stronger areas, and more absentee ballots from areas more favorable to Miller.

    Things look even worse for her when we start to factor in the fact that there is variation in the number of votes cast per HD, and therefore variation in the number of absentee ballots returned per HD. In 2008, this varied from a tiny 28 absentees in HD-39, to 741 in HD-34 (Rural Kenai). Assuming that each HD returns the same percentage of total absentees as they did in 2008, this is what we get:

    That negative correlation we saw earlier becomes even stronger, as Miller strongholds are expected to return more of the absentee ballots outstanding. Adding the additional assumption of Murkowski’s performance among absentees to be the same as her Election Day performance (tenuous, yes), she can be expected to receive about 48.51% of the absentee vote.

    Repeating this analysis for provisional ballots, things are no better for Lisa.

    While the relationship between her Election Day performance and provisional ballot rate seems to be better, adding into consideration the percentage of statewide provisionals per HD shows that familiar negative correlation for her. Making the same assumptions as above, Murkowski can be expected to get 48.82% of the provisional vote.

    Extrapolating further, using the oft-cited 7,500 absentees and assuming 5,000 provisionals (5,200 were cast in 2008), we can expect Miller’s margin to increase by 223 votes among absentees and 118 votes among provisionals. For Murkowski to pull this out assuming those figures for outstanding ballots, Murkowski would have to perform 8.04% better than she did on Election Day among absentees and provisionals…which is quite the tall order! More outstanding ballots means the swing she needs will be less, but it also means more ballots through which she could lose more ground. Given this, there isn’t too much reason to be optimistic for Lisa, and we might just have to put the ‘W’ in the column for the Grizzly Momma.

    You can also check out my dataset below the flip.

    Estimated Murkowski percentage is obtained by taking the weighted average of her performance by HD, with weights being the percentage of statewide absentees/provisionals cast within the HD.  

    SSP Daily Digest: 8/27 (Morning Edition)

  • CO-Sen: Like so many Republicans who rail against pork, Ken Buck still loves to gorge himself. Buck signed an anti-earmarks pledge pushed by Americans for Prosperity, but as Weld County DA, he asked then-Rep. Marilyn Manson Musgrave for a $2 million in federal funding for “expansions of North Range Behavioral Health center in Greeley.” He also “won $235,000 earmarked for the Weld County Gang Task Force.” In non-explaining this rather glaring contradiction, Weld said it “doesn’t mean I don’t want to change the system.” In other words, vote for me because I’m a hypocrite.
  • FL-Sen: Marco Rubio agreed to participate in a debate with Charlie Crist and Kendrick Meek, and then proposed six more. Adam Smith of the Tampa Bay Buzz explains how this play might really squeeze Crist:

    • Charlie Crist is almost always good on TV, but this poses a real problem for him. In a three-person debate, it would be Rubio and Meek each taking turns hitting Crist and pressing him on flip-flops and inconsistencies. It’s hard to stay above the fray when you’re the main target.

    But skipping most of the debates is equally problematic. If Meek agrees to these debates and the networks agree to televise them with or without all three candidates, Crist would be letting Meek raise his profile as the Democratic alternative to Rubio.

    Tom Jensen also describes another rock-and-hard-place problem for Charlie: Kendrick Meek is starting to eat his lunch among Democrats, so how can Crist regain that support? Well, he could pledge to caucus with the Democrats… but that would, of course, hurt him among Republicans. Mark Blumenthal also has an in-depth post on the subject, looking at things from Kendrick Meek’s perspective and wondering if he has a path to victory. Blumenthal concludes that Meek has a lot of room to grow, but thinks wining would be a “tall order.”

  • KY-Sen: Rand Paul knows that when you are in a deep hole, you bring in a back-hoe. Then, you start using some C4. Finally, you send in an army of ten million moles. At last, once you can finally hear the sound of Chinese being spoken, you know you are deep enough – and you reiterate your opposition to doing anything about the drug problem in Eastern Kentucky.
  • NC-Sen: Elaine Marshall has become the first (I think) challenger so far to call for former WY Sen. Alan Simpson’s resignation from what Atrios calls the “cat food commission” (not cat fud commission, sadly) – aka the president’s stupid deficit commission. Simpson, if you haven’t heard yet, wrote a vile email to the head of the National Older Women’s League, calling Social Security “a milk cow with 310 million tits” – and telling his correspondent to “get honest work.”
  • NV-Sen: His Mayoralness Michael Bloomberg will be hosting a fundraiser for none other than Harry Reid at Bloombo’s home in September. The Hill notes that Bloombleman has endorsed both Dems and GOPers this cycle, including Michael Bennet and Joe Sestak for the good guys, and Mark Kirk and Mike Castle for the bad guys.

    • Getting back to Nevada for a second, both Reid and Angle have new ads up, which you can view here. Reid has really been smacking Angle relentlessly over all the crazy shit she’s said – so I think you can understand why I said yesterday that it feels “limp” for Ron Klein to go after the similarly insane Allen West over tax issues rather than teh crazy. Anyhow, NWOTSOTB, though the Reid campaign says the ad “will be added to its rotation of statewide spots.”

  • WI-Sen: Wait, could there actually be room in this digest for a second Republican hypocrite? Hell yes! And it’s a repeat performance. It turns out that Ron Johnson’s plastics company Pacur received a HUD grant in 1979 to build a railway line out to its factory. This is on top of the $2.5 million federal loan Pacur received in the mid-80s to build an addition to the factory. As one blogger says, Ayn Rand must be rotating in her crypt. Don’t forget what Dagny Taggart did for a living!
  • AZ-03: Ben Quayle started a post-victory press conference by doubling down on his previous jerk-assedness, repeating his claim that “Barack Obama is the worst President in history.'” The douche really doesn’t fall far from the bag, huh. Meanwhile, Quayle’s former buddies at TheDirty.com were hit with an $11 million default judgment in a defamation suit brought by one of the many people they’ve wronged over the years. The only problem, however, is that the plaintiff’s attorneys appeared to have crumbed the play by naming the wrong business entity in their lawsuit. Hooman Karamian, the scumbag behind the website, says that neither he nor his company was served process, which could seriously imperil the award. In any case, all this legal wrangling is gonna make it a little harder for Quayle to get past this issue, methinks. (And Karamian, for that matter, says that he’ll stop blogging about Quayle’s involvement with the site once he “admits that he is Brock Landers”.)
  • FL-08: Alan Grayson is sharpening his battle axe:

    • “Dan Webster is deader than Elvis. … He is the ultimate establishment candidate,” Grayson quipped Wednesday, the morning after Republican voters picked the veteran former state legislator to run against him in District 8. …

    Grayson, of Orlando, is a bare-knuckle campaigner who has already begun referring to Webster as “Taliban Dan,” for what he considers to be Webster’s extreme religious views. Grayson made it clear his campaign plans a heavy onslaught of attacks against Webster’s voting record.

    “Stay tuned. You’ll see: We’ll be putting it out day after day, week after week,” Grayson said. “Very soon people are going to realize that Webster can’t possibly win.”

    While he’s often infuriating, you gotta respect Grayson for being balls-out, and not sounding like such a wuss like so many other Democrats.

  • FL-17: The Miami Herald has an interesting post-mortem on the Dem primary in the 17th CD. Given the heavily Haitian population in the district, it seemed likely that it could send the first Haitian-American person to Congress. But the four candidates of Haitian descent in the race split the vote, allowing state Sen. Frederica Wilson to carry the day with 35% (a number which, given the huge size of the field, was actually considered pretty high).
  • FL-24: Put the can-openers away, boys – no cat fud here. Karen Diebel emerged from hiding to endorse state Rep. Sandy Adams, the winner of the GOP primary. Diebel lost by about 0.8%, but obviously this means no recount.
  • ME-02: Businessman Jason Levesque is up on the airwaves in his bid to upset Blue Dog Mike Michaud, touting his desire to reign in government spending. Levesque has raised over $250K for his bid, so you may want to consider adding this one to your list of races that are bubbling under. (JL)
  • NM-02: The other day, we mentioned that the Defenders of Wildlife threw down another $125K on a new attack ad against GOPer Steve Pearce. The New Mexico Independent has the ad, if you’d like to watch it.
  • NC-07: Here’s something you don’t see every day: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre’s 2008 Republican opponent, Will Breazeale, is endorsing him. Breazeale really has it in for GOP nominee Ilario Pantano – Breazeale attempted a repeat bid this year, but was beaten by Pantano in the primary. The odd thing is that the McIntyre campaign specifically said “no comment” in regard to the endorsement. Any thoughts on why?
  • NC-08: Larry Kissell is touting a new internal poll from Anzalone-Liszt, showing him beating Republican Harold Johnson 49-32, with Libertarian Thomas Hill at 7. The only other interesting finding actually released in the memo is Johnson’s faves, 32-25.
  • NV-03: Actually, it turns out AFSCME’s buy was a lot bigger than we thought: $750K, according to independent expenditure reports, rather than the $240K reported by the Smart Media Group. AFSCME really seems to like buying in three-quarters-of-a-million chunks.
  • NY-01: Randy Altschuler is out with a new ad attacking Republican rival Chris Cox for living in New York City, rather than in Suffolk County. (Apparently, Cox is crashing at his uncle’s house in the Hamptons.) NWOTSOTB.
  • NY-13: GOPer Michael Allegretti has a new ad out, frenetically edited in the Dale Peterson style, which includes a “man on the street” declaring that Allegretti “is a paisan! He’s one of us!” And here’s an interesting detail the ad alludes to, which I think we missed: Allegretti’s opponent Mike Grimm apparently has no job and has debts which far exceed his income, according to financial disclosure forms. Gotta wonder how he can afford to run for Congress in NYC.
  • NY-14: Looks like the New York Post got caught trying to ratfuck the Dem primary here in my backyard. Those scuzzes tried to claim that Hillary Clinton – you know, the Secretary of State – was “unofficially” backing Reshma Saujani. Clinton confidantes and the State Department have called bullshit, though, stating that the Secretary of State does not engage in partisan politics. Duh. Nice try, Posties.
  • SD-AL: In politics, going after a candidate’s record traffic infractions is usually a rinky-dink play, but it turns out that Republican Kristi Noem’s record behind the wheel is very troubled:

    KELOLAND News checked the records for all five candidates for U.S. House and Governor; Noem has the longest list of violations, including 20 speeding tickets, three stop sign violations, two seat belt violations, and no driver’s license. Noem also has six court notices for failure to appear and two arrest warrants.

    Yikes! Meanwhile, Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin is out with a new ad that, mercifully, doesn’t feature her son’s poop, but instead speaks in dour tones about how liberals in Washington are wrecking the heartland. Pretty bleak, defeatist-sounding stuff. (JL)

    • My First Political Contribution

         Today, August 27, 2010 marks the day I made my first political contribution. The person I choose to be lucky enough to earn the $10 that I contributed is a person who is not only an inspiring leader but a person who takes great effort in addressing many of the issues most critical to me. Issues such as Global Warming, Health Care, Education, and Woman and Gay Rights.  This person also happens to be not only one of my favorite Senators but politicians as well. And the candidate who I gave a total of $10.00 is………..BARBARA BOXER (D)!!!!

        For those of you who may not know, Senator Boxer is currently seeking to have 10,000 Americans contribute to her money bomb this September 1st. This goal, if broken would allow her to break through 100,000 total grassroots contributions to her campaign to date. It’s no secret that this race will be an expensive one, and with Carly Fiorina’s ability to self-finance every dollar of her own campaign Senator Boxer will need every penny she can get in order to win re-election. So I ask you will you SSP members help Boxer reach her goal of 10,000 contributors on September 1st, or will you allow someone like Carly Fiorina be able to buy herself of Senate seat. Your choice is yours! (cue in dramatic music)    

    PS. I do not work for Senator Boxer, do not represent her in anyway, blah blah blah blah. I’m just some teenager in Jersey (take that last part as a positive or negative characteristic I don’t care but I am in no way so gel headed bimbo from the Jersey Shore)  

    By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

    View Results

    Loading ... Loading ...

    WA-03: Herrera Beating Heck out of Heck

    SurveyUSA for KING-TV (8/21-22, likely voters)

    Denny Heck (D): 41

    Jaime Herrera (R): 54

    Undecided: 5

    (MoE: ±4.2%)

    If there was ever a good indication that the Washington Top 2 primary is a good indicator of future performance, take a look at this SurveyUSA poll of WA-03. In last week’s primary, the Democratic candidates (Denny Heck + Cheryl Crist) got 42% and the Republican candidates got 54%. Those votes seem to have flowed unimpeded to the nominees, Heck and Jaime Herrera, with Herrera leading Heck 54-41.

    Looking at the crosstabs, the sample is very top-heavy with oldsters (62% are 50+, and 68% report incomes of $50K or more). Not that it matters: the support for Herrera is pretty consistent across all age groups (54% or 55% in all four groups), though. With Herrera already over 50%, Heck is either going to have to change some minds quickly, or else hope (like a lot of other Dems) that the universe of likely voters gets bigger (and younger) than it is now.

    100% Chance of Pain For House Democrats: GOP Pollster

    The American Action Forum is back with a new batch of House polls. (They released their first dozen last week.) One major caveat, though: as pointed out in the comments section (!) of Hotline on Call, the ballot head-to-head questions in each poll were buried under several thermometer-style questions on Obama, Pelosi, and healthcare reform:

    Those American Action Forum polls are designed to prime respondents into selecting Republican candidates. Instead of starting off with the ballot-test question, they start by asking if people think the country is on the right or wrong track, do they support/oppose health care reform, and their fav/unfav opinion of Obama & Pelosi (not Boehner and Bush, of course). Look, the Democrats are going to lose a lot of seats, and they will lose some of these seats in this poll, but the most credible way to conduct a general election poll is to start by asking who the respondent is voting for, because that is the one question that will actually be on a ballot. At least I give credit to these Republicans for showing the questions they asked.

    That’s absolutely right. For any poll to maintain its credibility, the toplines need to be asked at the start (or at least, no later than right after the favorables, as PPP does it).

    That said, we can still take a look at the toplines with a grain of salt.

    Ayres, McHenry & Associates (R) for the American Action Forum (8/16-21, likely voters, MoE: ±4.9%):

    IA-03:

    Leonard Boswell (D-inc): 41

    Brad Zaun (R): 51

    IN-02:

    Joe Donnelly (D-inc): 46

    Jackie Walorski (R): 44

    MI-07:

    Mark Schauer (D-inc): 40

    Tim Walberg (R): 50

    MO-03:

    Russ Carnahan (D-inc): 54

    Ed Martin (R): 38

    OH-01:

    Steve Driehaus (D-inc): 45

    Steve Chabot (R): 47

    OH-13:

    Betty Sutton (D-inc): 43

    Tom Ganley (R): 41

    OH-15:

    Mary Jo Kilroy (D-inc): 44

    Steve Stivers (R): 49

    OH-16:

    John Boccieri (D-inc): 35

    Jim Renacci (R): 49

    Note: Check out the downright geriatric sample for the OH-16 poll — 4% of the voters are between the ages of 18 and 34, 22% are between 35 and 49, and 74% are 50 and up. SUSA’s crosstabs from 2008 had a sample breakdown among those age brackets of 20-28-52. Other polls in this batch have similar shifts, but this one is the most glaring.

    WI-08:

    Steve Kagen (D-inc): 39

    Reid Ribble (R): 49

    CO-Sen, CO-Gov: Ipsos Has Buck Up 9, Bennet Internal Disagrees

    Ipsos/Reuters (8/20-22, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Michael Bennet (D-inc): 40

    Ken Buck (R): 49

    Undecided: 10

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    Ipsos is back with the rosiest poll yet for turd-caked boot fetishist Ken Buck. The poll also offers an unsurprising glimpse of the enthusiasm gap in Colorado: 76% of Republicans say they are “completely certain” that they’ll vote compared to 59% of Democrats who feel the same. That gap is reflected in the registered voter screen version of the poll, where Buck’s lead over Bennet drops to 44-40.

    Bennet’s campaign responded this morning with details of a Harstad Stategic Research poll (8/16-20, likely voters) conducted for their campaign:

    Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44

    Ken Buck (R): 40

    (MoE: ±?%)

    Bennet’s also up with a one-minute broadcast ad tearing into Ken Buck, in his own words. Republican media buying company Smart Media Group says that Bennet now has $106K worth of broadcast ads currently on the airwaves.

    Ipsos also has a set of numbers on the gubernatorial race:

    John Hickenlooper (D): 45

    Dan Maes (R): 45

    Other: 1

    Undecided: 9

    John Hickenlooper (D): 41

    Dan Maes (R): 33

    Tom Tancredo (C): 16

    Undecided: 9

    (MoE: ±4.6%)

    Yikes — if there was ever a reflection of how scary this environment is for Democrats, it’s the sight of John Hickenlooper being tied with broke-assed tinfoil-hatter Dan Maes in a direct head-to-head race. (Among registered voters, Hickenlooper leads by 48-38, and by 42-27-19 in a three-way.) Those numbers are a lot more optimistic for Dan Maes than the most recent most recent PPP poll, but keep in mind that PPP hadn’t shifted to a likely voter model when they last tested this race.

    Still, Hickenlooper is still clearly favored — Tancredo is still in this game, and Maes is, not surprisingly, having serious money woes. Even if you have the generic ballot on your side, it’s a bit difficult to win an election with a shoestring ad campaign…

    Full Ipsos crosstabs are available below the fold.

     

    Victory Speech and Path Forward (FL-Sen)

    Hey, this is Kendrick’s New Media Director, Kenneth Quinnell.  Wanted to drop in after the primary victory (57%-31%, while being outspent $27 million to $3 million) to thank everyone who supported us and keep you up to date on what we’re doing moving forward.  

    First I wanted to make sure you saw Kendrick’s victory speech:

    View it here or read the transcript below.

    It’s the speech of a Real Democrat who is running against two conservaties.  Everyone knows Marco Rubio is the darling of the Tea Party crowd.  But don’t forget that Charlie Crist was calling himself a “Reagan conservative” just a few months ago. (Incidentally, we’ve posted a bunch of his recent “I’m a conservative” press releases to our website.  Since he’s gone Independent, it seems like some people want to give him a pass on his lifelong history of being a proudly outspoken conservative.

    I’ve also included below our latest campaign strategy memo.  Please give us feedback on the speech and the memo and we look forward to continuing our conversation with the Netroots.

    ***

    Transcript of Victory Speech

    Hello, Florida!

    First of all, I just want to thank God for this victory. I’m truly humbled by the people’s goodwill in this great state of Florida.  I want to thank all of Florida for beliving, not only in my candidacy, but putting me on the ballot by signature — the first time in the history of this state.

    I want to thank everyone that works every day.  I want to thank those school bus drivers that I greeted this morning at 4:30 a.m.  That know what it means to live paycheck to paycheck.  I want to thank them first.

    I want to thank our seniors who went out and voted and cast their ballot at 7 a.m. looking for representation.  I want to thank all of those individuals, those first time voters, that voted in the last election for the first time that voted in this primary.  

    I want to thank President Obama. I want to thank President Clinton for coming down and supporting us.  Bill Nelson and Alex Sink, who is going to be our next governor of the state of Florida.

    To the campaign, to all the volunteers to all the people who kept believing. For all the people when times got rough in this campaign, there were those who counted us out, but you counted us in. Thank you for doing that.

    I want to thank my family — my wife, Leslie Meek, my daughter Lauren, my son Kendrick, and my mother, U.S. Congresswoman Carrie Meek.

    Ladies and Gentlemen, there are friends that are part of organized labor throughout this state who worked very, very hard.  I want to thank them.

    I want to be short tonight, because we have so much work to do. There are so many Floridians that are counting on a real leader to be the next United States senator and tonight we’re moving forward.

    I always said that I was the David in this race and that if we just kept the faith, and we kept marching on and we kept knocking on doors and we kept making phone calls and we kept putting out yard signs and we kept putting bumper stickers on the back of cars and if we kept listening — if we just kept listening — that we would be victorious on this night and I want to thank every Floridian that cast a ballot in this primary election to make me the Democratic nominee and eventually the next senator from the state of Florida.

    I made the case that I am the real Democrat in this race.  I also made the case that I have the will and the desire and the energy to pull a double shift to get Florida back to work, to make sure that people have health care, to make sure we protect our environment.

    Now ladies and gentlemen, I’m sorry I had to keep you down here waiting for a little while because I had to talk to Maurice Ferre. I want to thank him for a great campaign.  He called and wished us well as we continue to move on. I had an opportunity to speak with Jeff Greene.  Jeff Greene gave us his blessings and that he looks forward to campaigning with us and I want to thank him for that phone call.

    One thing that we have to keep in mind, ladies and gentlmen, that this election is not about those that are running for office, it’s about the people of this state and we have to continue to keep that focus for people that are in rural Florida or those that are in urban Florida. All the way from Northwest Florida, Northeast Florida, Central Florida, South Florida, Southwest Florida, Southeast Florida will be represented all the way down to the southernmost point of Key West, ladies and gentlemen, I am here, I am prepared to work for every vote in the state of Florida be it Democrat, Republican or Independent because I know what it means to punch in and punch out every day.

    I think if we learned anything in this campaign, it’s that the people of this state had the opportunity to see the muddiness of politics.  Well let me tell you something, ladies and gentlemen, when you are dealing with the muddiness of life, you can count on me.  I will not bail out on you, I will not leave you behind and I will not start changing on you when you need me because the people of the state of Florida stood with me tonight, ladies and gentlemen, through 26 million plus dollars being spent against us. We made history in this state because the state of Florida wass not for sale, will not be for sale and we will stand up and continue this effort.

    Now let’s talk about the business.

    I want to mention a few things because I want you to leave here and I want you to know what we stand for.  Now this election is going to be about where the candidates stand. I am running against two conservative candidates for the United States senate that have similar records.  I think it’s very important that everyone here in this room know by electing me to be your next United States senator, I will be the only candidate in this race that was against offshore oil drilling before and after the spill and will make sure to protect Florida’s environment.

    I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, the only Democratic candidate, ladies and gentlmen, that has always, consistently been against the privatization of Social Security.

    I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, that stood in their for Justice Sotomayor. When she was up for her nomination, I stood up and said that she was the right selection and that she would be an outstanding Supreme Court Justice.

    I am the only candidate, and will be the only candidate, that will stand up for a woman’s right to choose what happens to her body.

    I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, that fought, legislated and will continue to work for comprehensive health care for every American and every Floridian.

    I will be the only candidate, ladies and gentlemen, that’s willing to pull back on the top 1% of the Bush tax cuts and give more tax cuts to the middle class and small businesses.

    And when you make me your next United States senator, I will stand up to make sure that you continue to see what you’re seeing now — our men and women coming back home to their families from Iraq and Afghanistan.  It is important to military families that we reuinite them and continue to hunt for those that harmed our country.

    I think it’s also important, ladies and gentlemen, to know that anything that came out of this primary — it showed that this campaign has the strength, the integrity, the will and the desire to win this office.  And I may not beat Goliath before November 2, but when November 2 gets here, ladies and gentlement, I’m going to still going to be comfortable playing David, because we know when the polls close, ladies and gentlemen, in the great state of Florida, on November 2, that I will be the next Senator from this state.

    I want you to know that my campaign is based on the struggle of Floridians.  My campaign is based on making sure that children have someone who is going to fight for them.

    And I think what helped Floridians make a decision in this election was the fact that I had a real Florida story.  I grew up in here Florida. My mother was born here in Florida.  My children born here in Florida.  Grew up in the public school system. Diagnosed with dyslexia in the third grade. Kept plowing on.  Single mother, three children, divorced twice, worked at the junior college, said she wanted to represent her community. That’s where I come from.

    Attended Florida A&M University.  Became a state trooper. Changed car tires in this state. Did the things I had to do to understand the needs of people. Served as a skycap at the airport, service worker in this state. Went on to serve this state in the state legislature, went on to serve this state in Congress.  Some people call it career politicians, I call it public service.

    So Florida, as we march on, as we continue to knock on doors, as we continue to listen, as we continue to count all 67 counties in, we will win in November. And when you leave here tonight, I want you to know that hope marches on.  Believe isn’t just a slogan. And the dream endures. Thank you so very much Florida.

    God bless you. Thank you. I love you. I’d love, Florida, to be your next United States senator. God bless America

    ***

    Campaign Strategy Memo

    From: Abe Dyk, Campaign Manager

    To: Interested Parties

    Date: August 25, 2010

    Re: General Election

    Yesterday, Kendrick Meek earned the right to face two lifelong conservatives in Florida’s U.S. Senate race. Millions spent on negative attacks did not stop everyday people from casting their ballots for Kendrick. He won on the strength of his character, his grassroots supporters, and his ideas – not his checkbook. Kendrick proved that he can never be counted out against a better-funded opponent even in the general election.

    MEEK HAS THE MOMENTUM

    Kendrick being outspent seven-to-one once Jeff Greene got into the race could not match the grassroots engine that has fueled his campaign. The same people that went to work to put Kendrick on the ballot by petition – unprecedented for a statewide candidate in Florida – took him over the finish line in the primary.

    Oftentimes after winning primaries, candidates need to shift their message and run a different campaign in the general election. However, Kendrick is not going to shift his message at all. In a three-way race, Kendrick is still the only Real Democrat, and the only candidate willing to fight for the middle class against the special interests.

    In Florida, where Democratic registrations outpace Republicans by more than 600,000, and independents are likely to make up 18% of the electorate, this race will be won by turning out the same Democratic base that just entrusted Kendrick with the party’s nomination.

    President Obama remains extremely popular with Democrats – 84% job approval in the latest Quinnipiac poll – and Kendrick is the only candidate willing to stand with Obama to get Americans back to work, invest in future generations, and get Florida moving forward. President Obama has, in turn, committed to electing Kendrick as Florida’s next U.S. Senator, as has President Bill Clinton.

    Kendrick has the support of the state party apparatus, and unlike the Republican establishment that spent all of its funds bolstering Attorney General Bill McCollum’s gubernatorial bid, the Democratic Party has the resources to compete statewide. Conversely, Crist has no party apparatus, having abandoned the Republican Party – but not his conservative values – for political gain.

    Floridians – especially Democrats in Florida – know exactly what they are going to get by voting for Kendrick Meek for U.S. Senate.

    CRIST CANNOT WIN

    The math does not add up for Florida’s elected Republican Governor.

    With universal name recognition, Charlie Crist abandoned his Republican primary fight against Marco Rubio. Only 39% of Democrats supported Crist at a time when Kendrick was completely unknown beyond his district, a number that will be a high-water mark for him running against a Real Democrat.

    With Republicans coalescing around a Tea Party candidate, and Democrats with Kendrick, the math does not exist to elect Charlie Crist. With an expected turnout of 43% Democrats and 40% Republicans, Kendrick needs to win 75% of registered Democrats and just 17% of the registered Independent vote to secure 35% of the vote total. 35%-40% is all that is needed to win in a three-way race.

    The apparent strength that Crist is currently registering in the polls will not last. Even with all the Independents, Crist cannot win without getting more than 30% of Democrats and Republicans, and it is unlikely either group will support him as he twists and turns his positions over the next 10 weeks. The Charlie Crist sideshow does not have enough of the electorate to result in a victory, and with no state party apparatus, it is only a matter of time before Crist’s campaign begins limping towards the finish line. There are no runoffs in Florida elections, and for Charlie Crist, there may not be any more chances either.

    He could not stand up against Rubio, and he will never be able to stand up for Floridians as a U.S. Senator.

    THE REAL CHOICE: MEEK OR RUBIO

    Once Crist collapses, voters will have a choice between Kendrick Meek and Marco Rubio.

    Kendrick is the only candidate who fought against privatizing Social Security and high credit card fees. He is the only candidate who supports a woman’s right to choose and equal pay for equal work. He is the only candidate who will fight to cut taxes for the middle class and seek to repeal the Bush tax cuts for the wealthiest 1% of Americans and corporate special interests.

    Kendrick won the primary because he is the only candidate that will work for everyday people. He’s done it his entire career. Floridians know they can count on Kendrick, and they are poised to elect another Democrat to the U.S. Senate.