Texas is going to add 3 or 4 Congressional seats after the 2010 census. At least theoretically, there are four possible types of Congressional maps that could be drawn for Texas in 2010. In rough order of probability, they are:
1) A Republican Gerrymander
2) A Bi-Partisan Compromise Map
3) A Court Drawn Map
4) A Democratic Gerrymander
Texas is a very easy state to gerrymander. Geographically, Texas has a number of large population centers – chiefly Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, with vast sparsely populated rural areas in between. For example, it is not difficult to draw a geographically relatively compact looking district which start on the New Mexico border but jut into downtown Fort Worth. But the reality in terms of population distribution will belie the appearance of the map.
Another basic fact about Texas is it has a very large number of counties – 254. As a result, it is only rarely really necessary to split counties up between multiple districts for the purpose of achieving population equality. The real reasons for most county splits you will see on a map of Texas are political, and sometimes racial in the case of Voting Rights Act districts.
So any time you see a map of Texas that splits up lots of counties, you can be pretty sure that it is a major gerrymander. It’s just simply not necessary to split up counties for anything other than an extreme gerrymander.
A compromise map would be most likely if neither party completely controls the redistricting process. Currently Republicans have complete control Texas’ redistricting apparatus. That could change if Texas Democrats can manage to win back either the State House or the Governorship, with the Governorship looking like the likelier possibility of the two at this point.
A compromise map would give the Legislature (and the Governor) a chance to change the overall structure. A court drawn map, on the other hand, would likely maintain the basic structure of most or all existing districts.
In the case of split control, both Democrats and Republicans would have some incentives to compromise, but also some incentives to block any map and throw things into the courts, if they were not happy with a compromise map.
Democrats would want to roll back the worst abuses of the existing Republican Gerrymander, replacing many of the current districts (which stretch from the middle of major cities out hundreds of miles away via spiraling rural spaghetti strands 1 or 2 counties in width) with more geographically coherent districts confined to major metro areas and their immediate suburbs. This would involve substantial overall changes to the existing redistricting scheme – something Democrats could only achieve with assurance through a compromise map. On the other hand, the Republican gerrymander has started to come under some real strain, and a number of GOP incumbents are in increasingly serious long term danger. If the basic structure of the existing gerrymander remains in place without major political alteration, that will remain the case. So if Democrats cannot get what they want through a compromise map, they are unlikely to hesitate too much before throwing things to the courts.
On the other hand, Republicans would want to protect their incumbents in major metropolitan areas who are coming under increasing threat. In the case of many districts, such as TX-24, that can only be done by changing the basic structure of the districts. So Republicans will want to have a chance to change things to protect their existing gerrymander. While a court plan might strengthen some GOP incumbents, there are many that could be gravely endangered by the sorts of relatively small changes that a court might make when adding new districts and shifting boundaries around to achieve population equality. On the other hand, if Republicans do not feel that their incumbents are generally being well protected, they may conclude that taking the risk of a court drawn map is a better option.
This is my attempt at creating a relatively realistic compromise map. Geographically, I tried to generally respect county lines. Because nearly all of Texas’ population growth is Hispanic, and also because more Democratic districts are necessary to protect Republican incumbents, 3 of 4 new seats are Hispanic Voting Rights Act Districts. On the other hand, if no new Hispanic Voting Rights districts were added and all the new seats were designed to elect Republicans in the immediate term, Democrats could potentially flip many more than 3 seats by 2020. I reduced the mixing of rural areas with very different suburban and urban areas, and reduced the number of spaghetti strand districts – except in the Rio Grande Valley, where it is necessary to avoid over-packing Hispanic voters in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act. TX-21 is also still a bit of a spaghetti strand district, but other than that, I think the districts are generally much more compact and sensible than the current districts. In total there are 14 Democratic districts, 20 Republican districts, and 2 swing districts (TX-6 and TX-10). One Republican district would likely be won by a Democratic incumbent, Chet Edwards in TX-17, but if he retires the seat will very probably go GOP. Democrats would have a pretty good chance of winning both of the swing districts as well, because Republican primary voters in Texas have a hard time nominating the sorts of candidates with the broad appeal necessary to win in swing districts.
East Texas
East Texas as a region was one of the big losers of the 2003 redistricting. While East Texas has the population to support 3 or 4 Congressional districts, there is only 1 true East Texas district – TX-01. This was an intentional part of the Republican gerrymander of Texas. East Texas was tied in with suburban Republican areas in a series of Dallas and Houston based districts designed to defeat rural East Texas Democratic incumbents and replace them with Suburban Dallas/Houston Republican challengers. This compromise map tries to change that a little bit, while still being basically friendly to the existing Republican incumbents. Under this map, there are 4 districts that can reasonably be considered predominantly East Texas districts.
TX-01
Incumbent: Louie Gohmert (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
73% |
16% |
2% |
10% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
31% |
69% |
New District |
29% |
70% |
Change |
-2% |
+1% |
TX-01 remains very similar. A few counties shift, but overall the district remains heavily Republican and centered on Tyler. Louie Gohmert is not going anywhere.
TX-02
Incumbent: Ted Poe (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
72% |
18% |
3% |
7% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
40% |
60% |
New District |
34% |
65% |
Change |
-6% |
+5% |
TX-02 shifts out of Houston and further into Harris County, as other districts collapse towards Houston. But Humble, where Ted Poe lives, remains in the district. Democrats are not happy about submerging African American voters in Beaumont in an unwinnable district, and would much rather link Jefferson County with something competitive in the Houston area, to make a district that someone like Nick Lampson could win.
TX-04
Incumbent: Ralph Hall (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
78% |
13% |
2% |
7% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
30% |
69% |
New District |
30% |
69% |
Change |
0% |
0% |
TX-04 moves out of fast growing Collin County and is now more of a North-East Texas district, with Rockwall County appended. It remains heavily Republican, and after Ralph Hall eventually retires will elect another Republican.
TX-36
Incumbent: None
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
69% |
15% |
2% |
13% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
… |
… |
New District |
31% |
68% |
Change |
… |
… |
TX-36 is a new East-Central Texas Republican district. As I mentioned, in the previous Republican gerrymander, Tom DeLay split up East Texas between many different districts based in the suburbs of Dallas and Houston, because he did not trust East Texas not to keep on electing Democratic incumbents to Congress. That is no longer an issue, particularly in a compromise map. Because the political reason for the Dallas and Houston suburbs splitting up and dominating East Texas no longer really exists, East Texas can have more districts to itself. TX-36 will elect a Republican. The only question is which part of the district that Republican will come from.
West Texas
All three West Texas districts retain the same basic shape in this compromise map. However, their boundaries are smoothed out because the Republican political desire to ensure the defeat of former Democratic representative Charlie Stenholm is no longer a factor.
TX-13
Incumbent: Mac Thornberry (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
75% |
5% |
3% |
17% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
23% |
77% |
New District |
22% |
77% |
Change |
-1% |
0% |
TX-13 has to expand to meet its population quota, but still connects Amarillo and Wichita Falls, and is still ridiculously lopsidedly Republican. McCain beat Obama by 55% here.
TX-19
Incumbent: Randy Neugebauer (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
64% |
6% |
2% |
28% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
27% |
72% |
New District |
27% |
72% |
Change |
0% |
0% |
TX-19 remains a Lubbock-Abilene district, but is no longer quite so gerrymandered, because it is no longer necessary to ensure the defeat of Charlie Stenholm. Democrats and Hispanics voting rights advocates look at the high Hispanic populations in parts of TX-19 and TX-11 and dream of a Hispanic majority district in West Texas, reaching down into El Paso and Del Rio, would look like. That could happen in a Democratic gerrymander, and will likely happen regardless in 2020, but probably won’t happen in a 2010 compromise map.
TX-11
Incumbent: Mike Conaway (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
65% |
4% |
2% |
29% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
24% |
76% |
New District |
24% |
75% |
Change |
0% |
-1% |
TX-11 was created in 2003 to give former GOP House Speaker Tom Craddick’s Midland a distinct to “dominate.” It remains a Midland-Odessa dominated district, but is sucked into the Hill Country towards San Antonio, because the population numbers simply are not there in West Texas. If a West Texas GOP district were to be sacrificed to create a new Hispanic majority district, look for it to be TX-11 that gets the axe. Craddick remains controversial even among some Republicans, and if something has to be sacrificed, many would rather that it be Midland than anything else.
Dallas-Fort Worth
In Dallas-Fort Worth, this compromise map generally tries to respect county and municipal lines, to the extent practicable. Incumbent Republicans are generally protected (with the exceptions of Joe Barton and possibly Pete Sessions), and a new Democratic Hispanic seat is added. Dallas-Fort Worth districts are actually generally restricted to the actual Dallas-Fort Worth area, rather than extending hundreds of miles away into different parts of Texas.
TX-03
Incumbent: Sam Johnson (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
78% |
5% |
7% |
10% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
42% |
57% |
New District |
36% |
62% |
Change |
-6% |
+5% |
Collin County has grown enough in the last 10 years that it now can have a Congressional District all to itself, and still have some room to spare. TX-03 ditches its old portion of Dallas County, and also the part of the City of Dallas that is in Collin County. In the process, it becomes much more safely Republican. This TX-03 is strongly Republican enough to withstand even a very powerful continued trend towards Democrats.
TX-26
Incumbent: Michael Burgess (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
77% |
6% |
5% |
13% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
41% |
58% |
New District |
37% |
62% |
Change |
-4% |
+4% |
Like Collin County, Denton County has also grown a great deal in the last 10 years. But it is not quite large enough to have a whole Congressional District to itself, so TX-26 reaches into Collin County. In any sort of compromise map, TX-26’s ridiculous tentacle reaching into heavily African American parts of Fort Worth will be dismantled. Democrats would rather throw redistricting to the courts than abide a map that did not rectify that wrong. On the other side, Republicans will go along with dismantling the Great Tarrant Tentacle because they will want to protect Burgess through 2020.
TX-12
Incumbent: Kay Granger (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
72% |
7% |
5% |
16% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
36% |
63% |
New District |
40% |
59% |
Change |
+4% |
-4% |
TX-12 is brought within Tarrant County. It remains strongly Republican, though not as overwhelmingly so as before. However, Kay Granger is relatively moderate for a Texas Republican, so even if Fort Worth continues to become more Democratic, she will be less in danger than another Republican might be.
TX-24
Incumbent: Kenny Marchant (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
75% |
5% |
8% |
13% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
44% |
55% |
New District |
37% |
62% |
Change |
-7% |
+7% |
The southern part of TX-24, (Grand Prairie, Cedar Hill, and Duncanville) is lopped off, and TX-24 becomes a North Tarrant/Dallas County district, with a small piece of South-West Collin County thrown in. The new TX-24 is much more Republican. Formerly it was only a matter of time before Marchant succumbed to a Democratic challenger. In this new district, he stands a good chance of surviving another decade.
TX-34
Incumbent: None
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
22% |
20% |
3% |
54% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
… |
… |
New District |
71% |
28% |
Change |
… |
… |
TX-34 is a new Democratic Dallas-Fort Worth district with a small Hispanic majority. The 54% majority is small enough that there is a good chance that this district would not actually end up electing a Hispanic representative. Slight changes can increase the size of the Hispanic majority, most notably in the Tarrant County part of the district. But if you do that, then there are extra African American voters lying around. If they ended up in TX-12, 24, or 6, they would make those districts substantially more Democratic. From a partisan perspective, that would be good for Democrats, but endangering too many GOP incumbents would probably be a deal breaker for the GOP. So in a compromise map, the end result in the Dallas-Fort Worth area might be the creation of a Hispanic VRA district, but not one that is too heavily Hispanic.
TX-06
Incumbent: Joe Barton (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
56% |
16% |
7% |
21% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
40% |
60% |
New District |
52% |
48% |
Change |
+12% |
-12% |
Even after the creation of a new Hispanic majority TX-34 packed full of as many minority voters as possible, and after Eddie Bernice Johnson’s TX-30 is similarly packed full of minority voters, there are still Democratic votes left over in Dallas-Fort Worth, particularly in the Southern Mid-Cities. There are three ways that these extra Democratic votes could be dealt with.
A) They could be split up between tendrils of multiple GOP districts spiraling out in all directions for hundreds of miles.
B) They could be combined in one district to create a third solidly Democratic district in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. This could be done while making TX-34 more heavily Hispanic, taking out African American voters and adding them to another district (in this case, TX-6).
C) Some could be put in one district, but not enough to make the district solidly Democratic. In other words, a swing district could be created.
Democrats would balk at option A, while Republicans would balk at option B. In any sort of compromise map, therefore, option C is the most likely. This is one area where compromise would probably be most difficult, and where either side could easily throw in the towel on negotiations and decide to let the courts draw the map.
On the GOP side, for there to be a compromise, something in the Dallas-Fort Worth area has to be sacrificed. TX-6’s status a safe GOP district is a logical choice. The new TX-6 basically consists of the city limits of Arlington, Grand Prairie, Duncanville, Cedar Hill, and a small piece of Irving. Incumbent GOP Representative Joe Barton has talked about retiring, and this redistricting could push him – voluntarily or involuntarily – out of Congress. If he chose not to retire, Barton would have a chance of holding this seat for a while. But if he did, or even if he did not, Democrats would have a stable of strong potential candidates for this swing district, such as State Representatives Kirk England, Chris Turner, and Paula Pierson.
TX-32
Incumbent: Pete Sessions (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
62% |
12% |
8% |
18% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
46% |
53% |
New District |
45% |
54% |
Change |
-1% |
+1% |
This new TX-32 loses the heavily Hispanic arm reaching down to Oak Cliff to the new TX-34. The current TX-32 actually does not have a white majority, but this re-drawing does. While the Obama percentage does not decrease by much, Pete Sessions is probably made a bit safer than might appear. In the current district, it is only a matter of time and Hispanic turnout before Sessions loses. But with this new district, many Democratic base voters are swapped out for North Dallas swing voters who may have voted for Barack Obama, but will at least consider voting GOP. But even though this new TX-32 extends slightly into Collin County, up to the edge of the Plano city limits, it is not necessarily safe GOP for a decade. It’s just a basic unavoidable fact that Northern Dallas county is changing demographically and politically. It would take either the removal of much of TX-32 from Dallas County or some major gerrymandering in order to make it really and permanently safe GOP. That could theoretically be accomplished by having TX-30 (already well packed at 78% Obama) extend a tendril up the LBJ freeway (towards, but not actually into Richardson) to pick up Democratic precincts, and rotating TX-32, TX-24, TX-12, and TX-6, and TX-30 all counter-clockwise in a circle around TX-34. But that would push TX-6 into heavily African American precincts in TX-30, turning it from a swing district into a safe Democratic district. TX-12 could also be endangered one day by being dragged into Arlington. Alternatively, TX-05 could pick up lots of Democratic precincts from TX-30, to make up room from TX-30’s hypothetical LBJ arm. But that would be a GOP gerrymander, not a compromise map. Unless Democrats got something major in return, they would be foolish to allow anything like that.
TX-30
Incumbent: Eddie Bernice Johnson (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
30% |
43% |
2% |
25% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
82% |
18% |
New District |
78% |
21% |
Change |
-4% |
+3% |
This new TX-30 gives up Hispanic areas near down town Dallas to TX-34 and makes up the population loss by extending further east into suburbs like Mesquite. This makes it marginally less Democratic, but it is still the most lopsided district in the state on the Obama/McCain measure.
TX-05
Incumbent: Jeb Hensarling (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
76% |
7% |
3% |
14% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
36% |
63% |
New District |
31% |
68% |
Change |
-5% |
+5% |
TX-6 moves not only out of Dallas County and also more out of the rural areas to which it was previously attached. Instead, it becomes an exurban ring district around the southern half of Dallas-Fort Worth. From Garland, it goes through the counties of Kaufman, Ellis, Johnson, and finally Parker to the west of Fort Worth. Geographically, this does look somewhat odd, but these counties have a lot in common – certainly much more so than North Dallas and rural Cherokee county, as in the former district.
Central Texas
For the purposes of this map, I am using a broad definition of Central Texas, including everything from Waco all the way down Interstate-35 to San Antonio. The 7 Central Texas districts are largely confined to areas that can be reasonably considered part of Central Texas, if a broad definition is used. The safety of Chet Edwards is traded for the safety of John Carter, Austin is put largely back together again, Lamar Smith is made very safe, and Ciro Rodriguez gets a district entirely within Bexar county.
TX-17
Incumbent: Chet Edwards (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
61% |
19% |
3% |
16% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
32% |
67% |
New District |
40% |
59% |
Change |
+8% |
-8% |
Democrats and Republicans make a trade. Chet Edwards, the only white Democrat to survive redistricting in 2003, is a less ridiculously Republican (but still Republican) district. In exchange, John Carter is given a district which he should be able to hold for the longer term. TX-17 becomes much like it was before 2003 Redistricting – centered on McLennan and Bell counties. The Fort Worth suburbs in the north are gone, as is Brazos County in the south. Edwards might like to keep Brazos county, but Brazos, Bell, and McLennan counties cannot all be in the same district without being split, because the combined populations are too large. Edwards should be safe in this district, but when he retires it will flip to the Republicans.
TX-31
Incumbent: John Carter (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
79% |
4% |
3% |
14% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
42% |
58% |
New District |
35% |
63% |
Change |
-7% |
+5% |
TX-31 is the other half of the trade. John Carter has started feeling pressure to his re-election prospects on two fronts. First, Williamson County is undergoing the process of being assimilated into the weirdness of Austin. Second, Bell County (home to Fort Hood) has been becoming less favorable to the GOP. Killeen’s large and steadily growing African American population combined with the unpopularity of the Iraq war helped make Bell County swing much more Democratic in 2008. That could turn out to be a one time event, but it might not. In any event, John Carter could not feel safe in a district that consisted only of Williamson and Bell counties. So this keeps Williamson County but bypasses Bell, instead heading to the around it to the west, and then north as far as the outskirts of Fort Worth’s exurbs. This change makes the district once again heavily Republican, but if Williamson County does the same thing it has done over the past 10 years, TX-31 could conceivably become more competitive again as 2020 approaches.
TX-25
Incumbent: Lloyd Doggett (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
46% |
13% |
6% |
35% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
59% |
40% |
New District |
73% |
25% |
Change |
+14% |
-15% |
Austin is put back together, something which will happen if Democrats have any so whatsoever in Texas redistricting, and probably even if they do not. However, Travis County has a population of about a million people, so it will have to be split somehow between (at least) two Congressional districts regardless. The split in this map is by no means the optimal scenario for Democrats, as Democratic votes are packed into TX-25. In fact, the rest of Travis County not in this TX-25 only voted 52-46 Obama. For the record, Travis County could be split east-west almost exactly along the line of I-35. If that were done and TX-10 otherwise were the same as on this map, TX-25 would be a 61% Obama district and TX-10 would be 56% Obama – enough to send another Austin area Democrat to Congress alongside Lloyd Doggett. On the other hand, in a GOP gerrymander competitive Austin area counties could be parceled out between multiple surrounding rural districts. So Democrats would be very foolish to accept anything less than at least two Democratic or winnable Democratic districts out of the Austin area. A court drawn map would almost certainly be more favorable.
TX-10
Incumbent: Mike McCaul (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
73% |
5% |
4% |
18% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
44% |
55% |
New District |
48% |
50% |
Change |
+4% |
-5% |
Even after the creation of a TX-25 that is packed full of Democratic votes, and is more Democratic than Travis County as a whole, there is left over competitive territory in Travis, Hays, Caldwell, and Bastrop counties. Those counties have to go somewhere. They could be split up between multiple districts, but that would be a Republican gerrymander. There’s simply no alternative in a compromise map to another Austin area district winnable by Democrats. To Mike McCaul’s chagrin, TX-10 becomes a real live swing district. Democrats have a number of strong potential candidates for this TX-10, including State Representatives Valinda Bolton, Donna Howard, and Patrick Rose. While this district voted narrowly for McCain, I have a very hard time imagining that it will stay Republican all the way through 2020.
TX-20
Incumbent: Charlie Gonzalez (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
30% |
8% |
3% |
58% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
63% |
36% |
New District |
59% |
40% |
Change |
-4% |
+4% |
Yes, I mixed up the colors between TX-20 and TX-23. TX-20 is light blue, while TX-23 is light pink.
There is now a high enough Hispanic population in Bexar county to support 2 Congressional districts with healthy Hispanic majorities. Charlie Gonzalez will be safe in TX-20.
TX-20
Incumbent: Ciro Rodriguez (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
30% |
8% |
3% |
59% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
51% |
48% |
New District |
58% |
41% |
Change |
+7% |
-7% |
TX-23 is no longer a sprawling mega-district, extending from San Antonio to El Paso. It is now all in San Antonio. Ciro Rodriguez should like that fact, and will like the new, much smaller, and more Democratic TX-23.
TX-21
Incumbent: Lamar Smith (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
70% |
6% |
3% |
21% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
41% |
58% |
New District |
32% |
67% |
Change |
-9% |
+9% |
Lamar Smith’s TX-21 is gracefully extracted from its tenuous perch in downtown Austin. Because there are now two Hispanic Congressional seats entirely within Bexar county, its piece of San Antonio also becomes smaller, whiter, and more intensely Republican. To get the rest of its population, it goes east through a spaghetti strand line of counties roughly following I-10 into the Houston exurbs. This arrangement does not make much sense, but is the only real option if Austin is not to be diluted and gerrymandered (which would be a dealbreaker for Democrats). It can’t go South because it cannot mess with Voting Rights Hispanic districts. It can’t go West because there is not enough room in West Texas even for TX-11, 13, and 19 as it is. So there has to be something connecting parts of San Antonio, Austin, and/or Houston. In this case, TX-21 is it. After making this map, I realized that it could actually go into Fort Bend County rather than Harris, leaving all of Western Harris County in TX-7.
Houston
Under this map, Houston is pretty clearly the most gerrymandered part of Texas. That is an inevitable consequence of squeezing two African American and two Hispanic Voting Rights Act districts into the area. The cost of adding a new Hispanic majority district in Houston is reducing the Hispanic percentage in the existing TX-29. While it is uncertain at best that Hispanic voters actually make up a majority of the electorate in either district, the chances of a Hispanic representative from Houston go up, if only because Gene Green can only occupy one Congressional seat at a time. All incumbent Republicans are made safe – even John Culberson, who is given a district so Republican that it ought to be impossible even for him to lose.
TX-07
Incumbent: John Culberson (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
74% |
5% |
8% |
13% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
41% |
58% |
New District |
32% |
67% |
Change |
-9% |
+9% |
TX-7 becomes much more Republican. It is bleached of all the minority voters it possibly can be, who end up in Houston’s various minority districts. After every remotely competitive precinct is removed from the district, what remains is a 32% Obama district extending through Katy way out into Fort Bend County. If John Culberson is not safe in this district, he might as well retire today. Still, if this TX-07 shifts Democratic as quickly as the previous iteration did over the last decade, Culberson could actually face a competitive challenge by the end of the next decade.
TX-07
Incumbent: John Culberson (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
35% |
37% |
6% |
23% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
77% |
22% |
New District |
68% |
31% |
Change |
-9% |
+9% |
TX-18 is like a mutant Octapus, stretching all around Houston. The reason it does this is to make the new TX-35 as heavily Hispanic as possible. It maintains an African American plurality, and while TX-18 is less Democratic than before, it will continue to elect Sheila Jackson-Lee. There may well be a neater and more compact way to draw while creating a maximally Hispanic TX-35, but if there is a better way, I could not figure out what it was.
TX-35
Incumbent: Gene Green? (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
22% |
12% |
5% |
60% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
… |
… |
New District |
60% |
40% |
Change |
… |
… |
TX-35 is a new Hispanic district in Houston. Will it actually elect a Hispanic representative? I am not at all sure it will. Will Gene Green run in it, or in TX-29? Probably depends on where exactly he lives.
TX-29
Incumbent: Gene Green? (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
25% |
13% |
4% |
58% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
62% |
38% |
New District |
64% |
36% |
Change |
+2% |
-2% |
TX-29 is a new Hispanic district in Houston. Will it actually elect a Hispanic representative? I am not at all sure it will. Will Gene Green run in it, or in TX-35? Probably depends on where exactly he lives.
TX-09
Incumbent: Al Green (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
23% |
42% |
11% |
23% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
77% |
23% |
New District |
75% |
24% |
Change |
-2% |
+1% |
TX-09 extends a bit further into Fort Bend County, picking up some of the Democratic precincts that have been bleeding into TX-22 and giving Republicans heartburn. It also loses the more heavily Hispanic areas of Southwest Houston to TX-35. The result is a heavily Democratic district with a substantial African American plurality – bigger now than in TX-18.
TX-22
Incumbent: Pete Olson (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
68% |
7% |
11% |
15% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
41% |
58% |
New District |
36% |
63% |
Change |
-5% |
+5% |
Fort Bend county is changing demographically and politically more quickly than just about any other place in Texas. It is that change which has been rapidly shifting TX-22. To rectify this problem (problem for the GOP, that is) TX-09 and TX-15 combine to take in many more of Fort Bend’s Democratic precincts. It is possible that even after these major changes designed to make TX-22 much more Republican, it could well be quite competitive by 2020. The rest of the district remains largely the same, though silliness – such as including heavily minority areas in the district just because Tom DeLay thought it would be fun to have an airport (Hobby) in his district – is eliminated.
TX-14
Incumbent: Ron Paul (R)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
62% |
14% |
3% |
21% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
33% |
66% |
New District |
40% |
60% |
Change |
+7% |
-6% |
Though it still extends south along the Gulf of Mexico all the way to Port Aransas, TX-14 is sucked largely into greater Houston. The rural areas around Victoria are gone. The district is still strongly Republican, but not as overwhelmingly so as before. There is also some careful precinct trading between TX-14 and TX-22. If either Ron Paul or Pete Olson has to be in some sort of hypothetical danger, Republicans would rather it be Paul, and I can easily foresee Democrats obliging. Ron Paul should be fairly safe, but if Brazoria county starts going the way of Fort Bend, Paul could find himself in some minor trouble.
South Texas and El Paso
A common reaction upon seeing South Texas’ Congressional districts is wondering why they are all long, thin strips running from the Mexican border hundreds of miles north. Why, one wonders, didn’t they just draw a compact district or two along the border? The reason is that doing so overly packs Hispanic voters in a handful of districts. In fact, this was tried in 1980, and found to be illegal. So the long spaghetti strand districts are a fact of life for South Texas Congressional Districts. In any event, in this compromise map, South Texas districts remain largely similar to the previous versions. However, there has been a lot of population growth, and there is room for 1 (or even 2 in a Democratic Gerrymander) additional Hispanic majority seat which will send a Hispanic Democratic representative to Washington.
TX-27
Incumbent: Solomon Ortiz (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
25% |
2% |
2% |
71% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
53% |
46% |
New District |
55% |
44% |
Change |
+2% |
-2% |
TX-27 remains almost entirely the same as the old district. The only change is that it retreats from San Patricio County, and picks up a very small part of Harlingen in exchange. Solomon Ortiz should be quite safe here.
TX-15
Incumbent: Ruben Hinojosa (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
25% |
4% |
1% |
70% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
60% |
40% |
New District |
54% |
45% |
Change |
-6% |
+5% |
TX-15 is still based firmly in Weslaco-Harlingen in South Texas. But it now extends northwards all the way to the outskirts of Houston, where it skirts into Fort Bend county to pick up Hispanics in Rosenberg. For the record, that’s a 7 hour drive.
TX-33
Incumbent: None
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
21% |
2% |
1% |
76% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
… |
… |
New District |
55% |
45% |
Change |
… |
… |
TX-33 is our new Hispanic border district. Like TX-15, it is based firmly in South Texas, and it is essentially a certainty that it will elect a Hispanic Democrat from McAllen.
TX-28
Incumbent: Henry Cuellar (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
20% |
1% |
1% |
77% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
56% |
44% |
New District |
57% |
43% |
Change |
+1% |
-1% |
TX-28 becomes much larger geographically, as it expands along the border, running through Eagle Pass and Del Rio, all the way to the outskirts of El Paso. This is actually very likely to make Henry Cuellar very happy, because this ensures that Laredo is the predominant population center in the district. And the only real threat to Cuellar’s re-election prospects is the risk of a geographically based Democratic primary challenge from a Hispanic Democrat in another population center. There is quite simply nowhere else in this district with a population base to support a primary challenge against a Laredo Democrat like Cuellar. The district also becomes more Democratic, mainly because it no longer contains Guadalupe County or any of San Antonio’s eastern suburbs.
TX-16
Incumbent: Silvestre Reyes (D)
|
White |
Black |
Asian |
Hispanic |
|---|
Race |
18% |
3% |
2% |
77% |
|
Obama |
McCain |
|---|
Old District |
66% |
34% |
New District |
65% |
34% |
Change |
-1% |
0% |
Finally we arrive out in the West Texas town of El Paso, home to TX-16. TX-16 shrinks very slightly due to population growth, but otherwise remains exactly the same.
The End
So, there’s my try at a compromise map for Texas congressional districts, assuming 36 seats. This is by no means the most likely scenario for redistricting Texas. Even if Democrats were able to gain partial control over the process, both sides would have incentives to throw the re-mapping to the courts. But it’s possible, and that’s what it might look like. Overall, it has 14 Democratic seats, 2 Swing seats, and 20 Republican seats. If Chet Edwards holds on and Democrats can win the swing seats, Texas could have up to a 17D-19R delegation. A GOP gerrymander would obviously be less favorable, and a Democratic gerrymander (of which there is a 0% chance, since it would require taking back the State Senate) could hypothetically deliver a Democratic majority.