Swing State Project

After messing around with Dave’s App to learn about how to enter a good product into the contest, I see that it is somewhat difficult to strengthen all Democratic incumbents. Based on my knowledge about the 2002 lines, I know that many of the districts (Reynolds, Sweeney, Kelly, etc.) were designed to keep GOP congressmen safe. I decided it would be cool to see what a GOP gerrymander would look like, knowing full-well that the GOP will never be in complete control of the redistricting process. Please enjoy a grossly gerrymandered upstate New York that, in a normal year, would result in a 20-8 Democratic congressional delegation (assuming King was made safer and Bishop made significantly weaker).

Please also enjoy something that is probably worthless.

When creating this map, I stupidly closed the tab that had all of the exact numbers for each of the districts. All of the numbers are based on my memory of when I drew them, though I’m pretty sure my estimates are very accurate. I have redrawn some of them to check if I’m correct.

Goals:

Create an upstate map that at least six GOP candidates could win

Force Democratic congresscritters to compete against each other

Ax one Democratic district (I actually combined a number of them, so none was really “axed” per se, but one can argue Arcuri’s district is the most axed)

Map without counties:

Map with counties:

Analysis:

District 17: DARKISH BLUE

Obama: 65%

McCain: 33%

PVI D+13

Incumbent: Nita Lowey and Eliot Engel

Both Lowey and Engel live in this district, but I presume Engel would run in the neighboring 19th. This district is safe for any Democrat.

District 18 TEAL

Obama: 49%

McCain: 49%

PVI: R+3

Incumbent: Michael Arcuri

Keeps his base in Utica, but without Tompkins County, Arcuri should lose.

District 19: LIGHT GREEN

Obama: 63%

McCain: 35%

PVI D+11

Incumbent: None (but probably Engel)

This district is gerrymandered to take all of the Democratic votes in the upper suburbs, so any Democrat running here would be safe.

District 20: MEDIUM GREEN

Obama: 49%

McCain: 50%

PVI R+3

Incumbent: John Hall

This would add a lot of new territory for Hall, and it still has the same Republican bent. I would say that in any regular year, Hall would have a very difficult time.

District 21: BROWN

Obama: 55%

McCain: 44%

PVI D+3

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey

Hinchey’s district loses Democratic votes. His base in Ultser should make him fine in this district, but when he decides to retire, it’s going to be tough to find a Dem as progressive as he is.

District 22: DARK RED

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

PVI R+4

Incumbent: None

This sprawling district makes up the suburbs of Albany and dances around Albany and Schenectady. This district could be winnable by a Scott Murphy-type (who I imagine would run in here instead of the 23rd, where he lives), but Murphy barely won in his home district, which Obama carried.

District 23 PINK

Obama: 61%

McCain: 37%

PVI D+9

Incumbent: Paul Tonko, Scott Murphy, Bill Owens

Packing the urban areas of Albany and Schenectady and combining them with the heavily Democratic counties up north, and you have a solidly-Democratic district (making districts around it more Republican).

District 24 GRAY

Obama: 47%

McCain: 51%

PVI: R+5

Incumbent: Eric Massa

Massa could theoretically win this district, as his present district is hostile enough to Democrats. The new 24th has the same Southern Tier character, but is probably a bit more conservative. It takes in Syracuse’s suburbs instead of Rochester’s.

District 25 WEST GREEN DISTRICT

Obama: 48%

McCain: 51%

PVI: R+4

Incumbent: Chris Lee

Buffalo and Rochester suburbs should keep Lee safe.

District 26 DARK PINK

Obama: 47%

McCain: 52%

PVI: R+5

Incumbent: None

A newly-minted Republican district.

District 27 PURPLE

Obama: 59%

McCain: 39%

PVI: D+7

Incumbent: Dan Maffei

Packs metro Syracuse with Ithaca for a solid Democratic district.

District 28 WESTERN PINK DISTRICT

Obama: 71%

McCain: 27%

PVI: D+19

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter and Brian Higgins

The dreaded earmuffs district packs all of Rochester and Buffalo into one district for a super-Democratic disctrict.

Could newly-minted turncoat Parker Griffith get teabagged to death? It’s looking like a real possibility. You’d think that if the NRCC could score a party switch (always a big deal), it would come with assurances that the primary field would be swept clear. And just a few years ago, when the Republicans were in the majority and promoting conservatism was equated with supporting Bush, I have no doubt that would have happened. (After all, no GOPers complained when Rodney Alexander changed parties.) But today, with wingnuts demanding absurd levels of purity, it’s a different ballgame:

Madison County Commissioner Mo Brooks (R) said Tuesday afternoon that he won’t be clearing out of the GOP primary in Alabama’s 5th district to make way for Rep. Parker Griffith, who announced earlier in the day that he was switching parties and joining the Republican Conference.

Brooks also warned the Congressman that his party switching ways will not go over well with GOP primary voters, who make up the vast majority of the 48 percent of the 5th district electorate that voted against Griffith in the 2008 general election.

“That’s a tough jury to sell, particularly when you’ve voted with [Speaker] Nancy Pelosi [D-Calif.] 85 percent of the time,” Brooks said. “It’s unbelievably good fortune that Parker Griffith would jump into our pool and want to play. … He has just propelled us to favored candidate status.”

This just goes to show you: You can vote against the Democrats on every single big-ticket item – the stimulus, the Obama budget, cap-and-trade, healthcare, finacial regulatory reform, and even equal pay for women – and they’ll still find something to hit you on. In this case, Mo Brooks is smacking Griffith for his WaPo “Voting with Party” score. Nevermind that Griffith has one of the lowest scores on the list – trying to fight from a defensive crouch is almost always a recipe for failure. The GOP would surely have used this number against him had he stayed a Dem; it’s nice to see he’ll still get whaled on with it as a Republican. (And let that be a lesson to other conservadems who think they can hide behind lousy voting records.)

But don’t worry – Griffith’s new Republican buddies have plenty more ammo:

But just five years ago, Griffith donated $1,500 to the presidential campaign of liberal icon Howard Dean – with one donation coming when Dean’s campaign was already faltering in February 2004.

(Griffith also gave $1,000 to Sen. Harry Reid [D-Nev.] in December 2003 – something his conservative detractors will be sure to point out.)

Howard Dean! LOL! Who knew that me and Grif had so much in common? I was a big Dean supporter back then, too! But I think that even I knew it was time to jump ship by February (hell, his campaign folded in the middle of that month). You can bet that if a guy pretending to be a Southern-fried conservative was at one point a Dean backer, he’s said and done a lot of other libruhl shit over the course of his career. Like this:

A Dem source noted that while all of his back-and-forth with GOPers was going on, Griffith actually took the time to attend the 12/9 DCCC holiday party, an event that featured Speaker Nancy Pelosi. That doesn’t exactly paint the picture of a man wavering in his party commitments.

You can bet that isn’t the only time Grif has hobnobbed with Pelosi. But wait – there’s more! Plenty more. I think Griffith’s primary opponents could run this old ad – courtesy of the NRCC, circa 2008 – without changing a single word:

I know you didn’t think I was done yet. Our compadres at the Club for Growth is happy to Scozzafava good ol’ Grif, too:

Griffith’s voting record is far from conservative, too. Granted, he voted against the Big 4 – Obama’s first budget, the Stimulus, Cap and Trade, and ObamaCare.  However, his vote on the budget is slightly deceptive since he originally voted for 9 of the 12 spending bills that make up the budget.  And he voted against all the Stimulus amendments that would reduce its size.

But just a quick perusal of 2009 shows that he voted  YES on the 2009 pork-filled Omnibus; YES on Cash for Clunkers, NO on waiving the harmful Davis-Bacon provision, and had a pathetic 0% score on the 2009 RePORK Card.

This party switch signals Griffith’s nervousness, but it doesn’t signal that his incumbency is safe.

Zing! I think it’s very possible that it will be easier for Brooks to beat Griffith in a primary rather than a general. The DCCC is squeezing Grif to get back their money (something they did successfully with Rodney Alexander), so that’ll hurt him on the financial front. What’s more, he’s got a bit of a “damned-if-he-do, damned-if-he-don’t” situation on his hands: If the NRCC decides to openly support Griffith, it would almost certainly provide major fodder to the teabaggers – Charlie Crist 2.0. On the flipside, if they don’t back him (very possible, since they have to care more about blue seats than red ones), well, then, he loses out on major institutional backing. Not a good problem to have.

It’s important to remember that to remain a member in good standing of the conservative movement, it isn’t enough just to vote a certain way. You have to evidence a very particular tribal belonging – you need to hate the right people, be ignorant of the right facts, be fearful of the right bogeymen, and be arrogant about the whole enterprise. If you somehow fail this tribal litmus test, it doesn’t matter how right-wing you are – that’s how, for example, a wildly conservative guy like former Rep. Chris Cannon could lose a primary to another wildly conservative maniac.

And Parker Griffith is no Chris Cannon. Good luck, li’l buddy.

• CT-Sen: In an effort to calm fears that he’s facing an unwinnable path to re-election, Chris Dodd’s campaign released an internal poll that’s… well… pretty fugly. The GQR poll has ex-Rep. Chris Simmons leading by 51-46, while Dodd and former WWE CEO Linda McMahon are tied at 46% each. McMahon, for her part, released an internal poll showing her leading Simmons by two in the Republican primary. Mmmm… cat fud.

• FL-Sen: Big trouble in South Florida for Charlie Crist? GOP Reps. Mario and Lincoln Diaz-Balart have suddenly and unilaterally rescinded their endorsements of Crist’s senatorial campaign. The Diaz-Balarts offered no explanation as to why they’re leaving Crist to hang, but Lincoln offered this cryptic elaboration: Crist “left us no alternative and he knows why.” Is a Marco Rubio endorsement forthcoming?

• GA-Gov: Republican SoS Karen Handel, who is very much the underdog in the GOP primary, announced today that she will be resigning from her office to concentrate on her gubernatorial bid. This will allow her to raise money during the legislative session — something her opponents currently holding political office will not be able to do.

• IA-Gov: The Terry Branstad comeback express keeps chugging along — and it picked up another passenger today, as state Sen. Jerry Behn dropped out of the gubernatorial race today and handed Branstad his endorsement.

• RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee will make a “major announcement” sometime after New Year’s Day, presumably to make his candidacy for Rhode Island Governor official.

• SC-Gov: InsiderAdvantage takes a look at the Dem and GOP primary fields, and finds some pretty wide-open contests. For the Republicans, the McCain-backed state AG Henry McMaster and Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer are tied at 22%, with Sanford protege Nikki Haley at 13%, and the House of Representative’s very own “Some Dude”, Gresham Barrett, lagging behind at 9%. For the Dems, state Superintendent Jim Rex leads with 21% to lobbyist Dwight Drake’s 15%. State Sen. Vince Sheheen has 8%.

• CA-20: Dem Rep. Jim Costa may be facing a legitimate challenger next year… but one whom he already beat. Term-limited state Sen. Roy Ashburn, who lost an open seat race to Costa in 2004 by 7%, said he’s considering running for Congress again after ruling it out earlier. Local Republicans don’t sound too thrilled, though, pointing out Ashburn’s less than completely brain-dead record on opposing tax hikes.

• PA-10: Sophomore Dem Rep. Chris Carney has had a charmed start to his second term up until this point, managing to avoid any serious Republican competition from emerging. However, that streak has ended in recent weeks with the interest of state Rep. Mike Peifer and ex-US Attorney Tom Marino in the race. On the bright side, Peifer announced yesterday that he won’t be running, after all, but can we read that as a tea leaf that Marino is pretty serious about making this candidacy happen?

• PA-19: Here’s another reason why GOP Rep. Todd Platts should hope that he lands the job as head of the GAO: he’s now facing a primary challenge from freedom-loving businessman Mike Smeltzer. Maybe Platts would rather just retire than be forced to defend his Main Street Partnership-style voting record?

• SC-05: Republicans made their list, but now they better check it twice. The office of veteran Dem Rep. John Spratt confirmed yesterday that Spratt will indeed run for another term next year in spite of Republican-fueled speculation that he was looking for the exits.

• Pollsters & Scoundrels: Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal offers a wrap-up of the strange, strange saga of Strategic Vision LLC.

• Approvals: Seeking approval? Don’t look at me — go talk to SUSA; they’ve just released a ton of approval ratings for Senators and Governors across the nation. On your station.

Public Policy Polling (12/17-20, registered voters):

Tarryl Clark (D): 37

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 55

Undecided: 8

Maureen Reed (D): 37

Michele Bachmann (R-inc): 53

Undecided: 10

(MoE: ±3.7%)

Clark is generally considered to be a pretty solid recruit for Team Blue, but this looks like a pretty challenging environment in which to topple a Republican incumbent — even one as touched in the head as Bachmann. More, from Jensen:

53% of Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she’s doing in Congress to 41% who disapprove. Her numbers certainly reflect her polarizing nature, with 86% of Republicans giving her good marks and 83% of Democrats saying they don’t like her performance. But in a GOP leaning district and with a 51% approval from independents it all adds up to a pretty solid standing.

RaceTracker Wiki: MN-06

(Update: An earlier version of this post mistakenly stated that Clark was the DCCC’s preferred candidate.)

Well here’s a fresh dose of suck:

Businessman Jack McDonald (D) will drop out of the race against Rep. Mike McCaul (R-TX) today, robbing Dems of a wealthy recruit in the race against what could be a vulnerable GOPer.

McDonald, the former CEO of information technology firm Perficient Inc., will cite business reasons in a statement. The Nasdaq-listed company reported last month that its profits had plummeted by some 95% during the economic downturn.

McDonald stepped down as CEO in Sept. but remained on board as the company’s chair while he began his run for Congress.

It is a blow to Dems who had hoped to give McCaul a top-notch challenger. McDonald had raised a stunning $932K through the end of Sept., ending the quarter with $805K in the bank. McDonald is wealthy, but he lent his campaign just $26K, indicating he had real fundraising prowess.

This is both a surprise (McDonald only made his campaign official last week after months of “exploring”) and some pretty bad news to boot — it would have been good to keep the pressure up on McCaul, whose district tightened up to a 55-44 McCain district from a 67% Bush fiefdom in 2000.

Perhaps McDonald will hang on to his war chest for another run in 2012, but by then this district might be carved up in six different ways.

RaceTracker Wiki: TX-10

Public Policy Polling (12/18-21, likely voters):

Rand Paul (R): 44

Trey Grayson (R): 25

Undecided: 32

(MoE: ±4.5%)

That’s an absolutely stunning lead for Paul, and some major egg-on-face for Mitch McConnell and the NRSC brain trust. We haven’t seen a lot of public polling of the GOP primary, but warning signs emerged in August for Grayson, Kentucky’s Secretary of State, when SurveyUSA released a poll showing him leading Paul by only 37-26. Research 2000 followed that up a couple of weeks later with a 40-25 Grayson lead. Just last month, SUSA followed up on the race and found that Paul had actually eked into a narrow 35-32 lead. Given the amount of heat that Grayson has been directing Paul’s way in the past week over his ex-campaign spokesman’s questionable association with white supremacists on MySpace, you know that Grayson realizes that he’ll need to fight his way out of this one in a desperate fashion.

Now, you might think that a Paul primary win would be good news for Democrats, but check out what PPP is teasing about the still-to-be-released general election numbers:

the Kentucky general election numbers we’ll release Wednesday show Rand Paul doing only one point worse than Trey Grayson against Jack Conway and three points worse against Dan Mongiardo.

That said, Paul definitely represents a weirder strain of Republican conservatism that could end up being a liability in a general election. His questionable inner circle is one thing, but consider also Ron Paul’s non-position on 9/11 Trutherism. As an outsider, Paul is riding on a high against the establishment’s hand-picked candidate, but his freak-wing politics will be ripe for clobbering if he makes it through a primary.

And for the Democrats…

Jack Conway (D): 37

Dan Mongiardo (D): 33

Undecided: 30

(MoE: ±4.2%)

This is the first poll we’ve seen of Conway leading Mongiardo all year. SUSA gave Mongiardo an 11-point lead in November (up from 8 in August), while R2K found Conway trailing by 37-30 in September. In any case, Mongiardo enjoys broader name recognition, so Conway has some room for growth here.