By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Many Americans have heard of the Daisy Ad.



Most politics buffs probably watched this ad at one time or another. And after it was over, they may have wondered – how in the world was the daisy ad so effective?

By modern standards, it seems both outdated and completely transparent. The implication is most unsubtle: voting for Senator Barry Goldwater will bring nuclear war. Today’s viewer might find it somewhat ridiculous, even laughable. It would be as if Senator Barack Obama cut an ad implying that Senator John McCain would start World War Three.

Yet the Daisy Ad worked. Mr. Goldwater went on to lose the election by a landslide, partly as a result of said ad.

This was because in 1964, believe it or not, many Americans actually worried that Mr. Goldwater might use nuclear weapons.

More below.

Several events contributed to this perception. Firstly, Senator Goldwater publicly “proposed that NATO field commanders be able to initiate nuclear strikes in Europe without explicit permission from the White House.” This caused considerable controversy; most Americans criticized the proposal – rightly – as incredibly reckless, something that left humanity’s fate in the hands of one short-sighted general.

Mr. Goldwater also had a reputation for making careless statements – much like a modern-day Vice President Joe Biden, except far worse. Not all of these involved nuclear weapons (for example, the senator publicly supported shutting down the Tennessee Valley Authority, which was why he lost the state of Tennessee), but several unfortunately did. In one such instance, the candidate mused, “Let’s lob one (nuclear weapon) into the men’s room of the Kremlin.” In another, reporter Howard S. Smith asked about disrupting supply lines in Vietnam. Mr. Goldwater answered,

…There have been several suggestions made. I don’t think we would use any of them. But defoliation of the forests by low-yield atomic weapons could well be done. When you remove the foliage, you remove the cover…”

Even with the qualification, it is still disconcerting to hear Mr. Goldwater immediately suggest using nuclear weapons. Most Americans, however, heard something far worse: Republican candidate Barry Goldwater wanted to nuke Vietnam. The media generally left out the part where Goldwater said, “I don’t think we would use any of them.”

Mr. Goldwater did not do himself any favors in pointing out this fact. His clarification went:

I would never use a nuclear weapon when a conventional weapon would do. I would leave it up to the commanders.

Since this opened gigantic loopholes (if conventional weapons wouldn’t do, for instance), Mr. Goldwater still appeared quite reckless.

All these missteps gradually cemented a very negative perception: Barry Goldwater was a hawkish extremist, irresponsible and unfit to wield the presidency’s vast powers. “In your gut, you know he’s nuts,” went the Democratic refrain, and the majority of voters came to believe this statement.

The Daisy ad focused on this perception and shifted the national conversation to Goldwater’s recklessness. It worked not because it persuaded Americans that Senator Barry Goldwater would start nuclear war (not even the most effective negative ad can do that), but because it reminded them that he just might do so.

From the Daily News:

Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani is expected to announce Tuesday he is not running for U.S. Senate or anything else in 2010, effectively ending his storied – and often stormy – electoral career, The Daily News has learned.

The announcement, at which he’ll also endorse Republican Rick Lazio for governor, marks the end of a year-long political dance by Giuliani, who mulled bids for governor and then Senate before backing away from both.

Well, that leaves John Cornyn holding a big bowl of nothing over at the NRSC. Will the Republicans manage to put forth a challenger to Gillibrand with a modicum of credibility, or will all their huffing and puffing add up to naught when it really counts next year?

(Hat-tip: Taegan)

Rasmussen Reports (12/20, likely voters):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39

Jim Ryan (R): 46

Dan Hynes (D): 42

Jim Ryan (R): 40

(MoE: ±4.5%)

You may be feeling a sense of déjà vu. Didn’t Rasmussen poll this race as recently as last week? Why yes, they did, but they happened to whiff that poll’s release by forgetting to test the name of former state AG Jim Ryan, who at this point is probably the front-runner for the GOP nomination. So here’s a do-over, with some unsurprisingly good results for the GOP.

And then there’s North Dakota (12/17, likely voters):

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 36

John Hoeven (R): 58

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 52

Duane Sand (R): 37

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Before now, we had seen exactly two polls of the hypothetical Dorgan v. Hoeven clash of the titans. In February, Research 2000 put out a poll showing Dorgan thumping Hoeven by 57-35 spread, while an NRSC internal poll released from July in the hopes of enticing Hoeven into the race had those numbers flipped at 53-36 in the GOP’s favor. I’m inclined to believe that Dorgan would have a difficult time beating Hoeven — if he ever decided to get off the pot and commit to running — but I’m not sure if the spread is what Rasmussen thinks it is. I have to suspect that Dorgan is ahead of a sadsack like Duane Sand by a little more than 15 points, for instance.

A special early morning edition of the digest!

• NY-Sen-B: Will he or won’t he? The New York Daily News gets in touch with Rudy Giuliani’s friends and confidants to take the pulse of his ethereal Senatorial aspirations. The totally shocking consensus: Expect Rudy to quietly exit the electoral stage. Meanwhile, ex-NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson refuses to rule out a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand.

• IA-Gov: Former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad will formally launch his campaign to topple Democrat Chet Culver in January. Branstad also recently gave Christian Fong, a Cedar Rapids insurance company exec who was briefly in the running for Governor himself earlier in the year, a thorough sniff test. Branstad is rumored to be interested in tapping Fong to be his running mate.

• IN-Gov/IN-09: It looks like we can close the book on one of the sillier NRCC-promoted retirement “rumors” of the holiday season, as Dem Rep. Baron Hill said on Saturday that he’s running for another term. However, Hill confirms that he’s giving a gubernatorial bid in 2012 a long look. That might not be a bad idea for him; with redistricting looming around the corner, there’s a very real possibility that state Republicans will skunk up his district beyond recognition.

• FL-08: Frosh Dem Rep. Alan Grayson, continuing his quest to bring great ideas back to Congress, has filed a request with the Department of Justice to investigate and jail Republican activist Angie Langley for setting up the Grayson-themed “mycongressmanisnuts.com” website. Apparently, Grayson is upset that Langley is implying that she’s one of his constituents. Somehow, I suspect that all that Grayson is accomplishing here is giving “mycongressmanisnuts.com” more opportunities to be plugged in the media.

• NC-05: Local radio host Billy Kennedy, a former member of the NC Democratic Party executive committee, is “seriously considering” challenging Teabagger Queen Virginia Foxx after being urged to look at the race by local activists.

• TN-06: While Democrats have yet to find a warm body to replace retiring Rep. Bart Gordon, the GOP primary between state Sens. Diane Black and Jim Tracy is producing some early friction. Black was forced to apologize on Friday for sending out a fundraising email under a government template that included her legislative contact information and an implied list of endorsements from GOP leaders — including Tracy himself. (Former Rutherford County GOP Chair Lou Ann Zelenik is also in the race, proudly reppin’ the lunatic wing of the GOP.)

• VA-02: Rep. Glenn Nye the Incumbent Guy, one of the ripest targets of the Democratic class of 2008, has shed a challenger, though it was one of his more inconsequential opponents. Attorney Chuck Smith, a former Marine, has dropped out of the race and endorsed automotive executive Scott Rigell in the GOP primary.

Money can’t buy me love. Here are the November fundraising numbers for the six major party committees (October numbers are here):

We’ve added a new column to the chart, “CoH Change.” This just shows how much each committee’s cash-on-hand moved from the prior month, whether positive or negative. As you can see, the RNC spent a ton.

In recent days, several folks have asked for a clearer description of the kind of discourse that’s acceptable at the Swing State Project, and what’s off-limits. Before I get into that, let me explain my personal feelings on the matter. In my not at all humble opinion, I think SSP is one of the best political sites on the Internet, and has been for a long time. A big part of the reason is the comments section – it’s intelligent, civil, thoughtful, and almost entirely free of fights and flamewars. There are good reasons why it is that way, and there are good reasons why it ought to stay that way.

So why are the comments here so great? Well, for one, just based on the general topic of this blog, we attract a lot of very knowledgeable people. But there are plenty of sites out there with super-smart userbases but comment boards that are a total morass. What makes SSP different is focus. We stay relentlessly focused on one subject and one subject only: political horserace analysis. The discussion is always on-point, and you are bound to learn something from reading the comments to every post. What’s more, I think that precisely because it’s not a free-for-all, people are inclined to be more thoughtful in what they say. And it’s a virtuous circle – good comments foster a good site which attracts more good people to visit.

The other thing that makes SSP so excellent – and this something that is both somewhat subconscious and also the thing that people sometimes have the greatest struggles with – is that we strive to be bloodless. What do I mean by that? I think the best analyses tend to avoid a discussion of personal feelings and emotions. We’re trying to describe the political world as it exists – not as what we wish or hope or fear. When we set aside our own emotions, I think we are at are most accurate and astute. On the flipside, when things become heated and emotional, that is when the conversation is most likely to derail.

Now, I am not at all suggesting we never express a personal preference – that would be ridiculous. But it’s important not to let those personal preferences get in the way of clear-eyed analysis. If you like Candidate A more than Candidate B, it’s crucial to be able to step back and acknowledge that Candidate B has a better shot of winning the primary, if that is in fact the case. The same is true for legislation. We don’t debate legislation on the merits here – there are plenty of other sites for that. But to the extent legislation affects the horserace, we need to be able to stand aside from our own feelings and let the cold hard facts take center stage.

I want to be clear: As far as “bloodlessness” goes, I’m not trying to lay out hard-and-fast rules here. Yes, we do have some rules: stick to the horserace; no insults or ad hominems; support your arguments with facts and links. Those are pretty straightforward. The intersection of analysis and emotion is a lot trickier, and we aren’t robots. And we’re also a partisan site, which means it’s generally going to be okay to bash Republicans (though even there, lines can be crossed). It’s usually on our own side of the fence that we run into trouble – primaries or intramural legislative battles.

Just noticed this story in Politico (apologies if this was already diaried somewhere here):

The DCCC raised $3.65 million for the month, and ended November with $15.35 million cash-on-hand. It still holds $2.66 million in debt from last election cycle.

The NRCC only raised $2.34 million in November, and spent $2.16 million, hardly adding to their overall cash total. The committee now has $4.35 million in its account, while still owing $2 million in debt.

I am feeling rather pessimistic about next year’s House races, but if the NRCC can’t build up a decent war chest now, with unemployment high and support for health care reform sinking, I don’t see them putting together a huge wave. They’re talking about targeting dozens of seats, but they’re a long way from having the money to do that.

On the other hand, they do seem to have a more enthusiastic base.  

Here is my entry for Round 1 of the Great Swing State Project Redistricting Contest – New York Edition.

Because New York’s population has not been keeping up with the national average, it is expected to lose a seat. In my map, that seat in Peter King’s NY-03. NY-03 on Long Island is eliminated and “moved” all the way to the other side of the State, where it reappears as the successor of Eric Massa’s NY-29. NY-01, NY-02, NY-04, NY-05, NY-06, and NY-18 all devour a piece of NY-03, though NY-06 and NY-04 get the toughest pieces of meat. But other than NY-29 being renumbered NY-03, all the district numbers correspond to their existing incumbents.

There are only 11 districts which voted less than 60% for Obama (NY-01, NY-20, NY-21, NY-22, NY-23, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-27, NY-28, NY-03), only 5 districts which voted less than 57% for Obama (NY-23, NY-24, NY-26, NY-27, NY-03), only 2 districts which voted less than 53% for Obama (NY-24, NY-26), and only one district that McCain actually won (NY-26).

All incumbents should live in their districts (or else live close enough that only a few precincts would need to be traded in order for them to live in their district), with the exception of Jerold Nadler (NY-08). He already lives at the far northern edge of his district, and it gets sucked further into Brooklyn. Oh yeah, and I suppose Peter King is also an exception – he does not live in his district any more because he does not have a district any more.

All other contest rules are obeyed (No touch point contiguity, VRA districts fully respected, etc).

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Upstate

Upstate, my goal was to strengthen Democratic incumbents to the degree possible without significantly endangering other Democratic incumbents. For example, I wanted to make NY-23, more Democratic not at the expense of turning NY-21 into a seat that is potentially competitive. I also wanted to reduce the appearance of gerrymandering in this part of the State, partly because gerrymandering is the most conspicuous in upstate New York. Because upstate has a disproportionate ratio of land mass to population, people just looking at a map of Congressional districts will naturally focus on upstate when determining how gerrymandered New York looks. I also wanted to keep at least the core of all the existing districts, which is challenging because much of the population loss has been in upstate New York. Because I did not eliminate a district upstate, all the upstate districts feel a substantial force sucking them towards NYC.

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NY-27

Incumbent: Brian Higgins (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	5%	1%	4%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	54%	44%
New District	55%	43%
Change	+1%	-1%

Given the fact that Erie County is large enough that it has to be split no matter what we do, and given my desire to strengthen Eric Massa’s NY-29 (renumbered to NY-03), I opted to largely keep NY-27 as it is. The only changes are that it gives up some of Buffalo’s eastern suburbs (most significantly Cheektowaga) to NY-03, and picks up Niagara Falls and Tonawanda to the north. As a result, NY-27 becomes marginally more Democratic and safer for Higgins. Obama did not improve by much here over Kerry, and Buffalo may be trending slightly Republican, but Higgins should continue to be favored here.

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NY-03

Incumbent: Eric Massa (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	82%	14%	2%	1%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	48%	51%
New District	55%	44%
Change	+7%	-7%

Eric Massa’s district (old NY-29, renamed NY-03) is difficult to deal with. Massa lives in Corning in Steuben County, which is very inconvenient because the counties in that area are some of the most heavily Republican in New York State. Because I wanted to clean up Rochester and because the districts in Western New York have to be pushed generally to the East, sending the district north did not really work. I tried making an Ithaca-Binghampton based district for Massa, but that does not really work either because without Ithaca, it is difficult to avoid weakening NY-24. Also, if you make an Ithaca-Binghampton/Elmira/Corning district for Massa, then you have to waste Democratic votes in the Buffalo area unless you keep a modified Rochester-Buffalo version of NY-28 (which in turn means that Rochester is still split asunder). All this should make the point that western New York is a very delicate balancing act, and there is not really any great obvious way to draw the districts. Reorganizing things so that Massa’s district goes to Buffalo seems to be the least worst option.

In any case, Massa’s district swings Democratic by a net of 14 points. About half the population is in Erie County, so he could potentially face a primary challenge, but assuming Massa prevails in any primary and that people in Buffalo get to like him, he should have an excellent chance to hold on to this district for a long time to come.

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NY-26

Incumbent: Chris Lee (R)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	94%	2%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	46%	52%
New District	43%	56%
Change	-3%	+3%

Now we come to the token Republican district in New York State. Chris Lee should be quite safe in NY-26, representing a district that stretches all the way from the Buffalo Suburbs to the Rochestere suburbs and even to outlying areas around Binghamton. But mostly, this district is rural. It would be possible to make it more heavily Republican and to help make neighboring districts (particularly NY-03) slightly more Democratic in several places, but not without splitting many more counties and making upstate New York look much more gerrymandered.

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NY-28

Incumbent: Louise Slaughter (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	77%	13%	3%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	69%	30%
New District	59%	39%
Change	-10%	+9%

Rochester is put back together, into one fairly safe Democratic district. Though this NY-28 is substantially less Democratic than the previous Rochester to Buffalo serpent, it is still Democratic enough for Louise Slaughter or whichever Democrat succeeds her to win easily.

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NY-25

Incumbent: Dan Maffei (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	88%	6%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	57%	42%
Change	+1%	-1%

NY-25 remains firmly anchored in the Syracuse area. Onadonga County continues to dominate the district. But instead of heading west to the Rochester suburbs, NY-25 now heads south to the outskirts of Binghamton. If there is further population loss after another 10 years, NY-25 could become a true Syracuse-Binghamton district tracing I-81. Maffei should be slightly safer in this marginally more Democratic district.

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NY-24

Incumbent: Mike Arcuri (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	91%	3%	2%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	52%	46%
Change	+1%	-2%

NY-24 becomes swings a net of 3 points Democratic, but realistically remains a swing district. NY-24 is composed of two major pieces. To the east of Syracuse is the area surrounding Utica (Oneida, Herkimer, and Otsego Counties). To the west of Syracuse is the finger lakes region (Tompkins, Auburn, and Seneca Counties, with the city of Geneva thrown in). The old version of NY-24 connected these two pieces by running to the south of Syracuse, while the new NY-24 connects the pieces by running to the north of Syracuse, through Oswego County.

NY-24 could still run to the South through Cortland and Chenango Counties, but then NY-25 would have to take Oswego County, and would have to split the bothe Cayuga and Oneida counties with NY-24. That would make NY-25 1 point less Democratic and NY-24 1 point more Democratic than my version, but it also looks much more gerrymandered.

In any case, Arcuri can’t really complain, because his district adds Ithaca and becomes more Democratic, even if only a little bit more Democratic. This is not necessarily a safe Democratic seat for perpetuity, but Mike Arcuri has a good chance of holding it.

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NY-23

Incumbent: Bill Owens (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	93%	2%	1%	2%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	46%
New District	53%	46%
Change	+1%	0%

NY-23 becomes a much more compact and ever so slightly more Democratic district firmly based in New York’s North Country. The district consists of all of Jefferson, Lewis, St. Lawrence, Hamilton, Franklin, Clinton, and Essex counties, along with nearly all of Warren and Saratoga Counties, taken from the old NY-20.

It is very tempting to give NY-23 some Democratic precincts in the Albany/Schenectady area. That could be done, but at the cost of a more gerrymandered looking map and possibly at the cost of pushing NY-21 towards competitiveness, which I wanted to avoid. One potential problem is that Doug Hoffman is drawn into the district. But if Owens can win in 2010, he ought to be able to win this new district in 2012 as well.

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NY-21

Incumbent: Paul Tonko (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	86%	7%	2%	3%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	40%
New District	57%	41%
Change	-1%	+1%

NY-21 stays almost entirely the same. The only difference is that it now takes in all of Fulton County, and slightly more of Rensselaer County. The upshot is that it swings a net of 2 points Republican, but remains a reasonably strong Democratic leaning district. Tonko is no less safe than he is now.

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NY-20

Incumbent: Scott Murphy (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	80%	8%	3%	7%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	58%	41%
Change	+7%	-7%

NY-20 is one of the chief beneficiaries of the magnetic force pulling upstate districts towards New York City. A former swing district becomes much more solidly Democratic. Though a substantial portion of the district (Washington, Columbia, Greene, and parts of Rensselaer and Dutchess Counties) remains, the population center drifts down further towards the NYC suburbs, with the addition of Poughkeepsie and other towns along the East bank of the Hudson all the way to the edge of Yonkers. Murphy’s home in Glens Falls is included – barely – in the far north of the district (yes, that looks like touch point contiguity, but it’s not if you zoom in). It is quite possible that Scott Murphy could face a primary challenge from the southern end of the district. But regardless of which particular person NY-20 sends to Washington or whether that person lives in the north or the south of the district, that person would very likely be a Democrat.

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NY-22

Incumbent: Maurice Hinchey (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	7%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	59%	39%
New District	57%	42%
Change	-2%	+1%

NY-22 loses both Ithaca and Poughkeepsie, but becomes only marginally more Republican. It expands a little bit down the western bank of the Hudson, through Orange and into Rockland County, but (with the exception of the losses previously mentioned) this district remains substantially the same. Hinchey will be just fine.

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NY-19

Incumbent: John Hall (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	62%	20%	3%	12%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	51%	48%
New District	60%	39%
Change	+9%	-9%

Like NY-20, NY-19 becomes much more Democratic as it is sucked into Westchester County. As with NY-20, the incumbent (John Hall) lives in the very north of the district, in Dover Plains. NY-19 is now entirely to the east of the Hudson river, and it includes White Plains, Scarsdale, and Mount Vernon, as well as part of Yonkers and a bit of the North Bronx. Fully 63% of the district will be new to Hall, so he could theoretically face a primary from someone who lives in southern Westchester county, but Hall should be reasonably well suited for the new NY-19.

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NY-17

Incumbent: Elliot Engel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	57%	13%	4%	23%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	72%	28%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-11%	+10%

NY-17 becomes substantially more Republican, but not so much as to put Elliot Engel in any real jeapordy. Mount Vernon and part of the Bronx are traded for part of Orange County and an expanded piece of Rockland County. This district would be reasonably safe for most Democrats, and should be even more safe for Engel.

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NY-18

Incumbent: Nita Lowey (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	59%	16%	4%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	62%	38%
New District	62%	37%
Change	%	-1%

Finally we come to NY-18, which is now a hybrid Westchester, Long Island, and Bronx district. But mostly, it is a Long Island Sound district. despite helping to dilute competitive and Republican leaning territory on Long Island, this new NY-18 is actually very slightly more Democratic than the previous version. From Nita Lowey’s home in Harrison (in Westchester County), the 18th travels down Interstate 95 and into the Bronx, where (after picking up some choice Democratic precincts), it crosses into Queens via the Throgs Neck and Bronx-Whiteside bridges. Via the Cross Island Parkway, NY-18 crosses into Nassau County, where it picks up suburbs around Glen Cove while skirting along the coast. It continues to skirt along the Long Island Sound into Suffolk County, where it picks up McCain voting Smithtown, keeping those voters out of NY-01 and NY-02. This district substantially different from the current NY-18, but Lowey should be fine – she previously represented part of the Bronx, and should feel quite at home in northern Long Island as well.

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Long Island

On Long Island, my goal was not just to safely eliminate GOP leaning NY-03, but to do so while simultaneously avoiding the creation of anything that Republicans would have a chance of winning in anything other than a very strong GOP wave year. Through creative line drawing, the least Democratic district on Long Island is now NY-01 (57% Obama), while all the other districts voted at least 60% for Obama. It would certainly be possible to draw more compact districts on Long Island, but I doubt it would be possible to draw districts that are much more compact but are all equally Democratic. I tried to maximize Democratic strength without touching anything beyond Queens, and I think I achieved that about as well as can be done.

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NY-01

Incumbent: Tim Bishop (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	75%	10%	2%	10%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	52%	48%
New District	57%	43%
Change	+5%	-5%

NY-01 swings 10 points Democratic, thanks to some help from Lowey in NY-18 (taking Smithtown) and Steve Israel in NY-02 (taking part of Brookhaven). To make up the population lost to those districts, NY-01 heads west along the barrier islands on the south of Long Island to pick up Democratic voters in Long Beach and the Rockaways. The result is a Democratic district rather than a swing district, though NY-01 could still be competitive under some conceivable circumstances.

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NY-02

Incumbent: Steve Israel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	79%	5%	2%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	56%	43%
New District	59%	40%
Change	+3%	-3%

That NY-02 helps NY-01 to become more Democratic does not necessarily mean that NY-02 has to become less Democratic. In fact, this version of NY-02 becomes a net of 6% more Democratic as well. It does so by ceding some of the more GOP friendly parts of Brookhaven to NY-05, and extending just a bit further into Nassau County to pick up strongly Democratic precincts around Hempstead. Steve Israel should have no trouble winning this district, even if Pete King were to attempt to run in it.

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NY-04

Incumbent: Carolyn McCarthy (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	19%	6%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	58%	41%
New District	61%	39%
Change	+3%	-2%

Remember, there’s no NY-03 on Long Island any more (it’s now Massa’s district), so we skip straight to NY-04. Like NY-01 and NY-02 before it, NY-04 becomes more Democratic. It does this even while taking a pretty big bite out of King’s old district. It does this by giving up the biggest McCain voting parts of the current NY-04 (around Garden City) to NY-09, while moving into Queens, picking up areas on the periphery of the current NY-06. I also sent a finger north for the purpose of picking up McCarthy’s home in Mineola, though I am not sure if I included the right precincts or not. Pete King should live in NY-06 now, but it would probably make the most sense for him to try running in this district, if he bothered to run at all. This would set up a McCarthy-King matchup which just happens to be rigged very much in McCarthy’s favor. With King out of the picture, there would be no Republican US Representatives left on Long Island.

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NY-05

Incumbent: Gary Ackerman (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	53%	4%	22%	17%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	63%	36%
New District	61%	38%
Change	-2%	+2%

NY-05 becomes only modestly more Republican. It stretches all the way from Huntington in Suffolk County to Astoria in western Queens. If NY-05 were sent up to the Bronx instead of Astoria, it could actually be even more Democratic (and NY-07 could become a more purely Queens based district), but I decided against that on the grounds that there was really very little need to alter the basic arrangement of Crowley’s district. Ackerman should be just fine in this district, and in the unlikely event that King tries to run in NY-05, Ackerman should be able to easily beat him.

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NY-06

Incumbent: Gregory Meeks (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	41%	50%	1%	5%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	89%	11%
New District	69%	31%
Change	-20%	+20%

NY-06 is really more of an NYC district, but I am including it under the Long Island heading because of the important role it plays in the demolition of Pete King’s district. NY-06 swings massively towards the GOP by a net of 40%, but is still an extremely safe Democratic district. In the east, NY-06 starts in the middle of Brooklyn, taking a nice big bite of African American voters from the heart of the current NY-10 and NY-11. The reason for sending NY-06 into Brooklyn is to pick up as many black voters there as possible while also keeping NY-10 and NY-11 as VRA districts, for the purpose of leaving a larger number of African American Democratic voters free in Queens to help make NY-01, NY-04, NY-09 more Democratic.

Through a thin 1 precinct wide corridor, NY-06 enters Jamaica Bay, and comes out on the other side at JFK International Airport. From there, it picks up just enough African Americans to make the district black majority (but no more than are strictly necessary), reenters Jamaica Bay, and comes out at Inwood. It then picks up a few of the more Republican precincts in the Rockaways. It may or may not pick up Meeks’ home. If it does not include his home and it is necessary to include his home, it should be just a matter of switching a few precincts between NY-01 and NY-06 to fix the issue.

In Nassau County, the NY-06 heads steadily East along the South Shore of Long Island, picking up the most Republican precincts it can find along the way, often traveling through a nice narrow 1 precinct corridor. Naturally the most heavily Republican parts of Pete King’s old district (around Massapequa) are included in NY-06.

NY-06 continues east into Suffolk county, where it continues to pick up all of the most Republican precincts that it can find, most of which used to be in NY-03. The result is a black majority VRA district which just so happens to contain Pete King’s home and all of the strongest GOP parts of his old district. I don’t know how this could possibly have happened. Surely it was entirely coincidental, accidental, and unintended.

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New York City

New York City is something of a tangled mess, particularly in Brooklyn and Queens. To some extent that is unavoidable because of the requirements of the voting rights act. But in some cases I went beyond that (for example, by giving NY-13 the most Democratic possible parts of Brooklyn) for partisan gain. Manhattan and the Bronx are relatively un-gerrymandered, because it is not really necessary to do so in order to make nearby districts more Democratic.

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NY-09

Incumbent: Anthony Weiner (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	50%	8%	16%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	55%	45%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+7%	-8%

NY-09 both helps out with making the Long Island seats more Demacratic and itself becomes more Democratic (or at least more Obama friendly). It is now a Queens-Nassau County seat rather than a Queens-Brooklyn seat. In Queens the district consists of much of the area around Jamaica, liberal Jewish areas around Forest Hills, and some other Democratic areas from the old NY-06 and NY-05. As mentioned previously, it crosses into Nassau County to pick up the most strongly Republican parts of the old NY-04. The Jewish population may have declined somewhat, but Weiner should be fine in this new district.

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NY-10

Incumbent: Ed Towns (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	50%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	80%	19%
Change	-11%	+10%

I challenge you to tell me precisely what sort of serpentine monster NY-10 looks like. It meanders all around Brooklyn, picking up just enough African Americans to make it a black majority district, while also picking up all of the most Republican precincts that it can find. Ed Towns probably lives in this district. If not, it should be easy to draw him in.

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NY-11

Incumbent: Yvette Clarke (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	28%	50%	3%	16%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	91%	9%
New District	77%	22%
Change	-14%	+13%

Like NY-10, NY-11 is shamelessly gerrymandered, combining African American neighborhoods with Orthodox Jewish and McCain precincts, meandering as much as is necessary, and then meandering even more than that. Yvette Clarke should have no difficulty winning in this district.

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NY-12

Incumbent: Nydia Velázquez (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	22%	7%	16%	51%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	86%	13%
New District	75%	24%
Change	-9%	+11%

Hispanic population growth has been high enough that it is very easy to meet the VRA requirements for NY-12. The district no longer has to cross into Manhattan and no longer has to go as much into Brooklyn – this district is now mostly in Queens. There is also enough room to spare for it to pick up a pretty good helping of less Democratic and predominantly white precincts from Anthony Weiner and Gary Ackerman without lowering the Hispanic percentage too much. Velázquez remains completely safe.

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NY-13

Incumbent: Michael McMahon (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	64%	9%	6%	19%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	49%	51%
New District	62%	37%
Change	+13%	-14%

NY-13 still includes all of Staten Island. It still crosses the Verrazano Narrows bridge to get to Brooklyn. But from there, it heads due north, through Sunset Park and towards the area around Carroll Gardens. The Brooklyn portion of the district is now very heavily Democratic (90% for Obama), and that makes the district as a whole pretty safely Democratic. As it turns out, it is not even necessary to send NY-13 into Manhattan in order to swing NY-13 27 points in the Democratic direction, from a McCain district to a 62% Obama district. All you have to do is mix up which bit of Brooklyn Staten Island is combined with.

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NY-07

Incumbent: Joseph Crowley (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	44%	13%	7%	32%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	79%	20%
New District	76%	24%
Change	-3%	+4%

NY-07 remains a Queens-Bronx hybrid district. The Triborough bridge connects the pieces. Though some areas (e.g. Astoria and Greenpoint from NY-14) are new, much of the district is basically the same. Crowley himself could live in either NY-05, NY-12, or NY-07, but if he does not live in NY-07, it would be easy to draw him in. Regardless, he is safe.

I should also note that it is quite easy to turn NY-07 into a plurality Hispanic or even a majority Hispanic district, without even touching NY-12 or using Red Hook/Sunset Park (now in NY-13), simply by exchanging some territory with some combination of NY-14 (the Lower East Side), NY-16 (pretty much any part of the district), and/or NY-15 (by either heading into Northern Manhattan directly or by pushing NY-16 further into Manhattan). Though Crowley might be able to win such a district in a Democratic primary, it would not really be “incumbent protection” for him. But it would be good for Hispanic voting rights, and there will very probably be controversy over how NY-07 is redistricted, and how the Hispanic population is dealt with.

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NY-08

Incumbent: Jerold Nadler (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	58%	4%	20%	14%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	74%	26%
New District	68%	32%
Change	-3%	+4%

NY-08 remains a Manhattan/Brooklyn hybrid, though only 1/7 of the district is in Manhattan, while 6/7 are in Brooklyn. Even without the Manhattan part of the district, NY-08 voted 61% for Obama. Because Jerold Nadler lives in the Upper West Side, he unfortunately no longer lives in his district. I would suggest that he think about moving to Brooklyn. This is the only case where I drew a Democratic incumbent out of their district. Other than that, Nadler is fine. His district is a little bit less Democratic, but he is in no danger.

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NY-14

Incumbent: Carolyn Maloney (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	65%	4%	15%	13%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	78%	21%
New District	80%	19%
Change	+2%	-2%

Maloney’s NY-14 contracts entirely within Manhattan and becomes slightly more Democratic.

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NY-15

Incumbent: Charlie Rangel (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	29%	30%	4%	35%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	93%	6%
New District	91%	8%
Change	-2%	+2%

NY-15 gives up heavily Hispanic parts of northern Manhattan to the 16th district, and extends southwards into the upper West Side. This reduces the Hispanic population a bit, and though it is still a plurality Hispanic district, these changes probably slightly increase effective African American “control” of the district. If the ethics issues are cleared up, Rangel is safe. If not, it’s possible he faces trouble in a Democratic primary.

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NY-16

Incumbent: Jose Serrano (D)

	White	Black	Asian	Hispanic
Race	5%	26%	2%	65%

	Obama	McCain
Old District	95%	5%
New District	94%	6%
Change	-1%	+1%

NY-16 extends into northern Manhattan, but otherwise remains firmly anchored in the Bronx. This district becomes slightly more Republican, which is assuredly good news for John McCain and the Republican Party, and bad news for Jose Serrano. How can Serrano be expected to win when there is a full 17% (relative) percent increase in the number of Republican voters in his district?

I’m pretty sad and disappointed that I once again have to perform my least favorite activity. After the derail in this thread, I’ve suspended several users for a week. Those accounts will have access restored next Saturday. Also, one user who had received repeated warnings not to engage in derails (and promised me several times that he would stop doing so) has been permanently banned for his participation in this latest derail.

I will at some point put together an FAQ of some sort outlining my vision for the site. But everyone involved in that thread was a longtime user who knew exactly what was and wasn’t okay here. There weren’t many political sites you could go to during the 2007-2008 presidential primaries and avoid the ceaseless wars between competing factions. SSP was one of those few. And this site will remain a haven for all its days, whether it’s healthcare or some other contentious, emotional issue that crops up.

First, please follow our new-and-improved Twitter feed. Rather than have our RSS feed automatically pump out each post, we now lovingly handcraft our tweets from the finest artisanal electrons. So follow SSP today.

Second, if you haven’t already seen it, check out our awesome redistricting contest. There’s babka in it for the winner (natch). UPDATE: Check it out – we have our first entry, from MattTX2. Nice work!

And finally, check out Carly Fiorina addressing her supporters in Bakersfield, Calif.:

Carlyfornia dreaming indeed.