Swing State Project

• MA-Sen: Lake Research, the hired gun of Martha Coakley, has some pretty unsurprising results for the Democratic Senate primary in Massachusetts. Coakley, the state AG, leads Rep. Michael Capuano by 47-12. Despite having quite a bit of money in the bank, Stephen Pagliuca and Alan Khazei both look like non-factors at this point, at just 4 and 1%, respectively.
• MO-Sen: Missouri continues to look like the brightest spot for Democratic pick-up hopes in the Senate next year. Momentum Analysis, another Dem pollster, finds Robin Carnahan ahead of Roy Blunt by 48-45.
• WI-Sen: The wonks over at the University of Wisconsin decided to test the improbable match-up of ex-Gov. Tommy Thompson vs. Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold. Thompson leads Feingold by 43-39, but, as Josh Goodman notes, his recent endorsement of health care reform sure doesn’t seem like the actions of a guy jonesing for another dip in the partisan electoral hot tub.
• NH-Gov: UNH, home of the incredible gyrating sample, decided to test ex-Gov. John H. “Big Papa” Sununu against Democratic Gov. John Lynch. Lynch wins 50-37.
• NYC-Mayor: Is something happening here? SurveyUSA’s first post-primary poll of the NYC Mayoral election is showing a surprisingly close race: 51-43 for Michael Bloomberg. Sadly, I doubt that Thompson will be aggressive enough in the closing weeks to actually threaten the Royal Bloomsbury.
• WA-Init: SUSA has dipped its thermometer into the latest civil rights battle in Washington. R-71, the referendum on expanded domestic partnership (i.e. marriage in all but name), has a slim 45-42 edge. (Note: this is the complete opposite of Maine in terms of ballot wording; here, “yes” is a vote in favor of keeping domestic partnership.)

• DE-Sen: Here’s an ominous possibility: it’s been taken on faith that Beau Biden will still run for the Senate even with Mike Castle’s entry… but what if he doesn’t? The rumor mill is suddenly wondering if Biden has developed cold feet, especially keeping in mind that he’s only 40 and can pretty much waltz into the job in four years, rather running the risk of damaging his brand by losing an election in 2010.

• FL-Sen: Former Miami mayor Maurice Ferre, who just re-appeared on the scene this week, has already moved quickly to get into the race, announcing his candidacy for the Democratic nod today. Ferre is 74, a bit old to be launching a Senate bid, but he should have a lot of appeal in the Hispanic communities (although it’s worth noting he’s not Cuban, but Puerto Rican). On the other side of the aisle, Republican underdog Marco Rubio seems on the precipice of a big score that will help him tap into a nationwide base of donors (although his recent fundraising numbers suggests he’s already gone nationwide): the Club for Growth is feeling sufficiently confident to get involved on his behalf.

• NV-Sen: I’ve lost count of who’s in the lead, Mark Sanford or John Ensign, in terms of how many times he’s had to tell the press that he won’t resign. Anyway, it was Ensign’s turn again yesterday, as he faces a ramped-up Senate Ethics investigation.

• VT-Sen: A primary challenge to Pat Leahy from the left? This seems unlikely to go anywhere, but Daniel Frielich, a military doctor from Wilmington, VT, will announce his candidacy today. His bid seems to focus mostly on health care (he’s a single-payer backer and not a fan of the Dems’ watered-down approach).

• OR-Gov: Couple minor tidbits from the Beaver State: one, Steve Novick (who fared well in the 2008 Dem Senate primary) had been occasionally rumored to be interested in running for Governor, but makes his Shermanesque ‘no’ statement in a Blue Oregon piece detailing his road map for the next guv. Also, as Republicans cast about for a palatable candidate, the fickle finger is now pointing at state Sen. Frank Morse, who says he may get in. Morse has a moderate or at least pleasant reputation within the Senate, but has no statewide profile.

• VA-Gov: Reading between the lines, it sounds like Creigh Deeds might be looking for excuses for his increasingly probable defeat in November. He blames some of his travails on the “spending” and “noise coming out of Washington D.C.”

• FL-08: With Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty out, former state Sen. Daniel Webster is still a maybe (although his registering “danielwebsterforcongress.com” may tip his hand). Regardless of what Webster is doing, at least one other Republican is wading into the fray: wealthy businessman Jerry Pierce, who says he’ll run with or without GOP backing. (Pierce has given $15K to the Club for Growth over the last decade, so maybe he’s hoping they’ll return the favor.)

• NH-02: Jennifer Horn, who lost to Rep. Paul Hodes in 2008, isn’t getting out of the way for ex-Rep. Charlie Bass’s possible comeback. Horn is expected to publicly announce her candidacy today.

• VA-05: As had been expected, state Sen. Rob Hurt filed his paperwork yesterday to run against Rep. Tom Perriello in the 5th. Hurt is from near Danville at the district’s south end, setting up a battle of the regional bases with the Charlottesville-based Perriello.

• Mayors: Here’s an ignominious end of the road for three-term Albuquerque mayor Martin Chavez (who, Bloomberg-style, overturned a term limits ordinance in order to run again): he got bounced from office in a primary. Somewhat surprisingly, Republican state Rep. Richard Berry cleared the 40% mark in the three-way primary, which means that he wins without the trouble of a general election. Berry got 44% to Chavez’s 35% and 21% for Democratic state Sen. Richard Romero. (UPDATE: This technically was a general election, not a primary, under local law; had no one broken 40%, the top-two November election would have been considered a runoff.)

• NRCC: The NRCC announced which five of its Patriots (the vulnerable incumbents, akin to the Dems’ Frontline program) will get the first infusion of cash. The beneficiaries are Mary Bono Mack, Charlie Dent, Pat Tiberi, Lee Terry, and Tom Rooney, all of whom have drawn high-profile challengers.

Because four terms as Governor just aren’t enough:

Former Gov. Terry Branstad filed papers today creating a campaign committee for governor, signaling the beginning of a potential comeback campaign for the Republican and reshaping the race for the 2010 primary election….

Schwarm, who plans to file the paperwork, said it should not be interpreted as a definitive sign that Branstad is committed to running. But veteran Republican strategists see the move as a tacit campaign launch, establishing Branstad as the prohibitive favorite capable of thinning the robust primary field.

Branstad, the current President of Des Moines University, was Iowa’s Republican Governor from 1982 to 1998. You might think that makes him an ancient mummy, but he was only 35 when first elected, so he’s only 62 years old (heck, he probably has another four terms in him). Branstad has polled well, pulling down high favorables and beating current Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in head-to-heads. Polls, however, have also shown a surprisingly low number of people thinking it’s a good idea for him to run again, especially among older Iowans (the ones who actually remember him).

This suggests that while Branstad starts out in strong position, once voters are reminded of the lingering negatives from his administration he may lose some steam. There’s also the little matter of the Republican primary, where it seems unlikely that some of the hard-right candidates (like Bob vander Plaats) will step out of his way. With all this in mind, Swing State Project is changing this race to a Tossup.

RaceTracker: IA-Gov

With the 2010 election season starting to heat up a bit in the House, we thought we’d take a look back at all the incumbents who didn’t seek re-election to the 111th Congress, along with the date they officially announced they weren’t running again (and their reasons).

Note: Mark Udall planned to run for Senate long before the 2008 cycle began, so we’ve just slotted him in at the top. And if you’d like to take a look back at Republican retirements in the 2006 cycle, click here.

As you can see, things unfolded rather differently over the last two Congresses, especially compared to what we’ve seen so far this year. Last cycle, there were already a number of outright retirements at this point (including several shockers, like Deborah Pryce and Chip Pickering), while only three reps had announced campaigns for higher office. There were also many more retirements to come, especially on the GOP side; the most fertile months for announcements turned out to be October-November and January.

This time, we have zero retirements and a whopping eighteen members of Congress who are running for a different job. It’s easy to see why we have no retirements yet – Dems are in power, and the GOP is feeling better about its chances these days. I’m personally hoping that the combination of a real healthcare bill passing, plus some Dem victories in the three key races on Nov. 3 (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov & NY-23), will help re-demoralize the Republican Party and encourage some geezers to head for the exits. At the very least, barring some kind of crazy collapse on our side, we are extremely unlikely to see a repeat of 1994, when thirty Dems announced their retirements, and the GOP picked up twenty-two open seats. So far, there are just seven blue open seats this cycle, and only three are potentially competitive.

Third quarter fundraising tallies are beginning to trickle in. We’ve already reported on a few in the digest (notably, Mark Kirk and Marco Rubio), so let’s round up a few of the numbers we haven’t mentioned yet.

AR-Sen:

     Gilbert Baker (R): $500K raised

IL-Sen:

     David Hoffman (D): $405K raised + $500K personal donation; $851K Cash-on-Hand

     Alexi Giannoulias (D): $1.1M raised; $2.4M CoH

LA-Sen:

     David Vitter (R-inc): $1.2M raised; $3.9M CoH

LA-02:

     Cedric Richmond (D): $115K raised (via email)

MO-07:

     Billy Long (R): ~$100K raised; $400K CoH

MS-01:

     Alan Nunnelee (R): $220K raised

PA-06:

     Doug Pike (D): $123K raised; $750K CoH

     Manan Trivedi (D): $110K raised (in three weeks)

PA-07:

     Bryan Lentz (D): >$250K raised

     Pat Meehan (R): >$200K raised

FL-Gov:

     Alex Sink (D): $1.6M raised; $3.6M CoH

MA-Gov:

     Charles Baker (R): $543K raised

Fairleigh Dickinson (9/28-10/5, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38

Chris Christie (R): 37

Chris Daggett (I): 17

Undecided: 16

(MoE: ±4%)

FDU didn’t include Chris Daggett in their previous month’s poll, so we can’t draw a clean trend line from these numbers. However, in a direct head-to-head, Corzine leads Christie by 44-43, up from 47-42 for Christie last month. Incredibly, this is the first time we’ve seen Corzine in the lead since January. There’s more, though.

Rasmussen Reports (10/5, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 44 (41)

Chris Christie (R): 47 (48)

Chris Daggett (I): 6 (6)

Undecided: 3 (5)

(MoE: ±4%)

If there’s been a common thread over the past few weeks, it’s been that Christie’s numbers are beginning to come back down to earth, but that Corzine wasn’t actually gaining any support in most of the public polling. Now we have two polls suggesting that Corzine is ticking upward, and here’s how that looks in graphical form:

Getting better, but we’ll have more polling results in the coming days that will either corroborate the trend or point to something else. Hang on to your butts.

By: Inoljt, http://thepolitikalblog.wordpress.com/

The New York Times posted a very interesting map of Afghanistan’s recent election.



Before continuing, I must note that my purpose is not to question whether irregularities or fraud might have denied Abdullah Abdullah victory; I am simply analyzing the data as it appears.

There’s a lot of data here, and interpreting it is fairly difficult; few people know much about Afghan politics and demographics. This map indicates the margins each candidate won. Kabul is the big red circle. In total, Karzai won 55% of the vote, essentially doubling the vote of the second-closest candidate.

Compared to a similar maps of U.S. elections, several things stand out. The first is the extent to which polarization is apparent. Afghani society is very clan-based, and elections can reveal polarization like nothing else.

At the point most politicians win an election by more than 20%, maps like the one above tend to consist of something like below:



This is Barack Obama’s 24.03% landslide in California. Compare it to Karzai’s 27% victory: one might be forgiven for concluding that out of the two elections, Karzai did worse.

(Many) more maps below the fold.

Notice too that Ramazan Bashardost, who won only 9% of the vote, shows up as a presence on the map. This indicates a very regional candidacy, like that of William Wallace. Candidates who win 9% of the vote nearly never show up on any type of election map; Ross Perot, for instance, won less than a dozen counties with his 18.9% of the vote.

Abdullah Abdullah was also a regional candidate, as the following map reveals:



Mr. Abdullah  is almost entirely limited in support to the north; very few Pashtuns in the south seem willing to vote for him. This was not the case with Karzai; his total vote looks far more homogeneous:



There are several American states that the results Afghanistan’s election can be comparable to. The victor wins the one major city along with a number of more rural areas, although the opposing candidate summons strong support in one region. In this respect, Karzai’s victory resembles the coalition Bill Clinton assembled in many Appalachian states, such as Missouri and Tennessee (his loss in Oklahoma also bears similarities to Afghanistan). Recent presidential elections, on the other hand, generally do not follow this pattern; cities and rural areas rarely vote together (and cities never vote Republican). After Bill Clinton, only Obama’s Iowa victory comes to mind as a state with a “Karzai” coalition. Note that in all this states, the winner’s margin was far less than Karzai’s 27%.

The place that Afghanistan’s election calls most to mind, however, is Alabama. Both are extremely polarized: Afghanistan by tribe, Alabama by race. Republicans regularly win landslides in Alabama, yet always lose a particular region – the Black Belt – just as Karzai lost many Afghan areas despite his strong performance. Accusations of fraud have severely tainted the Karzai “landslide,” just as fraud of a different type was practiced in Alabama for many decades. Finally, both areas are extremely poor and will likely remain so during the forseeable future.

To end this post, here is McCain’s performance in Alabama.

• FL-Sen: Conservative upstart Marco Rubio greatly improved his fundraising over the 3rd quarter, raising nearly $1 million. (Primary rival Charlie Crist says he’s on track to raise $2 million for the quarter). This should bring a note of credibility to a campaign that, earlier in the year, had grass roots enthusiasm but was nearly broke.

• IA-Sen: You may recall the hype over the last few weeks that Chuck Grassley would get the “race of his life” in 2010, although no one was sure who the opponent would be. It may just turn out to be prominent attorney and 1982 gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin after all, if reports that the state Dems are trying to recruit her into the race are true.

• KS-Sen: The newest SurveyUSA poll of the GOP primary (where the only action is) in the Kansas Senate race shows sorta-conservative Rep. Jerry Moran building an appreciable edge over very-conservative Rep. Todd Tiahrt. Moran now has a 43-27 lead, up from a 38-32 lead two months ago. Moran (who represents rural western Kansas) seems to be gaining ground over Tiahrt (who represents Wichita) in northeast Kansas (the Kansas City burbs), where most of the undecideds are.

• NH-Sen (pdf): Ever notice that the New Hampshire pollsters all have names that read like the title cards in the old school Batman fight scenes? UNH! ARG! Anyway, today it’s UNH’s turn, and they find Republican former AG Kelly Ayotte with a 40-33 edge over Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes. Hodes defeats the lesser and probably more conservative (although with Ayotte, who the hell knows) Republicans in the race, Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney, both by a score of 37-28. Ayotte is still not that well-known, with a favorable of 37/8, and — this may be the key takeaway from this poll — 86% of the respondents say they are “still trying to decide” which candidate in the race to support.

• IL-Gov: Here’s a guy who should probably consider a name-change operation before running for office. No, he isn’t the governor Ryan who went to prison, and he isn’t the rich guy Ryan who had the weird sex life… he’s the former AG (and guy who lost to Rod Blagojevich in 2002) Jim Ryan, and he’s apparently back to running for Governor again despite 7 years out of politics. He formed an exploratory committee last week, and now he has an internal poll showing him with a commanding lead in the Republican primary: he’s at 33%, leading state Sen. Bill Brady at 11, state GOP chair Andy McKenna at 7, and state Sen. Kirk Dillard at 5. Ryan’s poll also finds Ryan faring the best in the general, losing 39-34 to current Gov. Pat Quinn and beating Dem Comptroller Dan Hynes 37-36, while Brady loses to Quinn 43-27, Dillard loses to Quinn 44-25, and McKenna loses to Quinn 44-26.

• PA-Gov: No surprise here, but Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato officially launched his gubernatorial campaign today. Onorato seems to realize he has his work cut out for him in the state’s east where ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel is likely to run strongest in the primary; so, Onorato launched his campaign in Philadelphia and sought to downplay his pro-life views by saying that he wouldn’t seek to change state abortion laws.

• VA-Gov: It looks like the post-thesis-gate bump Creigh Deeds got may be dissipating as Bob McDonnell hits back with a couple strong ads: SurveyUSA polls the Virginia governor’s race again and finds McDonnnell with a 54-43 lead. SUSA has been McDonnell’s friendliest pollster lately, posting the same 54-43 numbers for him last week.

• AL-02: Well, this is good news… I guess. Rep. Bobby Bright has reiterated one more time that he plans to remain a Democrat when he runs for re-election next year, despite his Republican-friendly voting record and difficult re-election in his R+16 district.

• FL-08: Although Rep. Alan Grayson has been gleefully painting a giant target on his own back, the Republicans are still flailing around trying to find a challenger. One of their top contenders, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, has just announced that he won’t seek the Republican nomination next year. (Which may be just as well for the GOP, as Crotty is unpopular and has some ethical clouds hanging overhead.) GOP focus turns now toward former state Sen. Daniel Webster, who’s well known but may be too socially conservative for this bluening, R+2 district (he was Terri Schiavo’s biggest fan in the state legislature). If Webster doesn’t get in, state Rep. Stephen Precourt may be plan C.

• GA-08: Rep. Jim Marshall picked up a challenger, although one who’s nearly down in the “some dude” tier: 30-year-old businessman Paul Rish, who served briefly as Bibb County Republican chair. Higher up the totem pole, state Rep. Allan Peake has declined a run; former Rep. Mac Collins hasn’t ruled the race out but doesn’t sound enthused.

• NV-03, NV-Gov: It’s official: Republican former state Sen. Joe Heck will be running against Rep. Dina Titus in the 3rd, picking up the torch dropped by John Guedry. With this, Heck drops his gubernatorial primary challenge to Jim Gibbons, giving former AG Brian Sandoval a pretty clear shot at unseating Gibbons in the primary.

• OH-18: Fred Dailey, who got 40% of the vote in 2008 running against Rep. Zack Space, says he’s back for a rematch. However, he’ll have to get past state Sen. Bob Gibbs in the Republican primary, who seems to have the establishment backing this time.

• OR-04: If AAPOR is looking for someone else to discipline, they might want to look at Sid Leiken’s mom. Leiken, the Republican mayor of Springfield running in the 4th, is under investigation for paying his mom several thousand dollars for polling. Now it turns out that, in response to questions about whether that poll was ever actually taken, his mom is unable to produce any spreadsheets or even written records of the poll data, or any phone records of the sample (she says she used a disposable cellphone!).

• SC-05: Another sign of NRCC recruiting successes in the dark-red parts of the south: they’ve gotten a state Senator to go up against long-time Democratic Rep. John Spratt in the R+7 5th. Mick Mulvaney will reportedly make his announcement soon. Spratt’s last strong challenge was in 2006, where he faced state Sen. Ralph Norman (who spent $1 million of his own money but still only got 43% of the vote).

• SD-AL: Oops, this slipped through the cracks this weekend: one day after state Rep. Blake Curd said he’d run for the GOP nomination for South Dakota’s House seat, so too did a heavier-hitter: termed-out Secretary of State Chris Nelson. Nelson’s entry had long been anticipated, but now it’s official.

• VA-05: Things may finally be sorting themselves out on the GOP side in the R+5 5th, where Rep. Tom Perriello will face a big challenge regardless of whom he faces. State Sen. Frank Ruff said that he won’t run for the nomination, and GOP sources are also saying that state Sen. Rob Hurt (who has been considered the likeliest nominee all along) will enter the race shortly.

• NY-St. Ass.: There’s a party switch to report in the New York state legislature; unfortunately, it happened in the state Assembly — where the Republicans’ ship sank long ago — instead of the closely-divided Senate. 14-year Assemblyman Fred Thiele, from AD 2 on Long Island, left the Republicans, saying they “stand for nothing,” and joined the Independence Party; he will caucus with the Democrats. This brings the total in the Assembly to 107 Dems, 40 GOPers, and 3 Dem-caucusing minor party members.

• Mayors: There’s one noteworthy mayoral primary on tap for today, in Albuquerque. It’s a nonpartisan race, but there is one Republican (state Rep. Richard Berry) and two Dems (current mayor Martin Chavez — remember how the netroots sighed with relief when he decided not to run for Senate last year — and former state Sen. Richard Romero). The most recent poll has Berry leading at 31, with Chavez at 26 and Romero at 24, but it’s likely that whichever Dem survives the primary will have the edge over Berry in the general (unless Berry can somehow top 40%, in which case there wouldn’t be a general). With numbers like that, though, it’s possible that Chavez could get knocked out in the primary.

• Polltopia: Here’s another opportunity to give some feedback to our friends at PPP. They give their polling schedule for the run-up to November (it’s heavy on VA, NJ, and mayoral races in NC), and solicit some suggestions heading into 2010.