Swing State Project

Hi, everyone. This is my first diary, so please let me know if it isn’t appropriate.

I haven’t seen any coverage here of the resolution of the case against the New Black Panther Party and two of its members for alleged voter intimidation in Philadelphia. Most of the coverage I’ve seen is in right-wing sources (see here for an article in The National Review), which makes me suspect that there may not be much to the story and that it’s being distorted and sensationalized for partisan reasons. However, the above-linked story is from cnn.com. I’m sure some of you know this story much better than I do. On the face of it, it seems somewhat bad. This is from the CNN story:

“On Election Day, two men in uniforms stood outside the polling station with one of them holding a police-style baton weapon and saying he was providing security there. Justice has alleged that person was Shabazz.”

No-one will serve any time or pay any fine. Is it sufficient to “[win] an injunction[…]against a third member, Samir Shabazz, that prevents him from ever brandishing a weapon outside a polling place again”?

I’m skeptical of relying on anything in the National Review article, which includes tendentious claims that Judge Sotomayor is a racist, so take it for what it’s worth, but here’s part of what it says:

“As a former DOJ alumnus, I have never, ever heard of the Division refusing to take a default judgment, especially in a situation where the defendants are basically admitting they violated the law. The facts indicting the DOJ seem damning, and no good explanation seems possible.”

The only reason I know about this story in the first place is that a right-wing friend of mine posted a link to the Washington Times (UGH!) story about this on his Facebook page. No matter what assurances you give me, there’s no way I could convince my right-wing friends that there isn’t some kind of left-wing conspiracy here, so that’s not the point. I’d just like my own reassurance as a liberal Democrat who believes in fair play and doesn’t believe in tolerating any voter intimidation. I feel like there should have at least been a fine, and I’d like to understand why the Justice Department might have decided against that. I look forward to your replies and hope this diary about a matter of voting mechanics and legalities is not too much of a tangent from the usual diaries about candidates.

By the way, I also realize that by posting this kind of diary as my first, I run the risk of seeming like a right-wing troll. My only defense is that you will know what I’m really like through my posts in the future.

SurveyUSA (5/31-6/2, likely voters, mid-May in parens):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 35 (37)

Brian Moran (D): 26 (22)

Creigh Deeds (D): 29 (26)

Other/Undecided: 11 (14)

(MoE: ±4.4%)

Cap’n, will you have a look a’ that!

Deeds was also the only candidate of the three to improve in head-to-heads against Bob McDonnell – in the last poll, he trailed 46-40, but is now just a point back at 44-43. McAuliffe and Moran both treaded water. The primary is this coming Tuesday, June 9th. Once again, SSP will be here to liveblog the results.

UPDATE (James): Suffolk has released a poll this morning showing Deeds with 29% to McAuliffe’s 26%, with Moran at 23%. And with that, Deeds takes the lead in Pollster.com’s graph.

The lede of this CQ piece has a surreal feel to it:

Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney plans to announce a primary challenge to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand on her Web site Thursday morning, according to two sources including a member of New York’s congressional delegation.

Maloney disputed that characterization in a brief hallway interview.

“Where did you get that from?” she asked. “It’s not true.”

Regardless of the timing or venue, several of her New York colleagues, including Reps. Jerrold Nadler and Anthony D. Weiner, said Maloney has told them she will run. She has also indicated to political allies in her “silk stocking” district on Manhattan’s Upper East Side that she is preparing a bid.

So CQ has knowledgeable, high-level sources who say that Maloney is preparing a run, but Maloney denies it to their faces? Perhaps she was just disputing CQ’s claims about the “timing or venue,” as they say, but even so, this is kind of embarrassing. If you’re going to take on someone with as much grit, fundraising prowess, and establishment backing as Kirsten Gillibrand, faltering out the gate like this is seriously small-time. I guess we’ll find out the truth tomorrow, but still… weak.

Anyhow, if Maloney does run, I’m sure it will set off a hot primary in her safe blue (D+26) seat – which just so happens to be the Congressional district I’ve lived in for my entire life. So what do you say, folks? State Sen. Liz Krueger, Assemblyman Jonathan Bing, Councilwoman Jessica Lappin… or SSP Blogfather and People-Powered Prophet DavidNYC? James will be accepting applications for my campaign staff in the comments.

• MN-Sen: Despite the seemingly increased likelihood that he’d jerk Al Franken around now that he doesn’t have to worry about re-election and how impatient Minnesotans feel about the Senate vacancy, Gov. Tim Pawlenty says he’ll certify Al Franken as winner of the Senate race if the state Supreme Court directs him to do so. Also, many are interpreting John Cornyn‘s comments about how the Senate GOP doesn’t have the votes to filibuster Sonia Sotomayor, even if they wanted to, as being a tacit admission that Franken would be seated soon.

• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

• KY-Sen: Here’s a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for “whitfieldforsenate.com” and “whitfieldforgovernor.com” (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn’t a topline, but the result from a subsample that’s disposed to do well for Moran: people who’ve participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year’s presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are “interested.” Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she’ll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who’d do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card… Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can’t have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn’t interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor’s race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard’s entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run — but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state’s west to sneak through.

• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey’s advantage; she made reference to Musgrave’s letter in her own appeal for contributions.

• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she’d still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

• FL-25: Here’s a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

• NC-11: PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina’s state Senate districts.)

• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a “thank you” party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to “the conservative, religious crazy vote” and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney’s 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor’s position.

• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who’s only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn’t so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It’s Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

AJC:

Roy Barnes will announce today that he intends to become the first former Georgia governor in a half-century to reclaim the office after being turned out by voters.

The announcement is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. in Marietta. Barnes, we’re told, will delay the actual start of his campaign until July, in order to wrap up some trial work and finish up as chairman of the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards.

Barnes has been keeping his cards close to his chest for most of the year, sometimes sounding like a candidate with a lot of issues burning in his blood, but also informing folks that he’s reluctant to terminate his retirement from the political arena. He’ll be joining an already-crowded field of Democrats for the gubernatorial nomination: Attorney General Thurbert Baker, House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, and former GA National Guard commander David Poythress are all in the race.

It’s possible, though, that Barnes’ entry could clear the field somewhat. A Strategic Vision poll from April showed Barnes crushing Baker by a 56-29 margin, with Poythress and Porter in the low-single digits. While Poythress has nothing to lose by continuing his candidacy, Porter and Baker may be thinking twice about giving up their safe jobs in order to roll the dice on a tough primary.

In the diaries, fitchfan28 has more.

Former Governor Roy Barnes is set to announce that he will be entering the 2010 race for GA Governor today according to a report by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. This is a huge development for Democrats as it signals the entrance of their highest profile bench player.

Barnes, the GA Governor from 1999-2003, has shown fantastic fundraising prowess in the past and has the greatest name identification of any of the Democrats now in the running.Allies of his such as Attorney General Thurbert Baker and to a lesser extent State Democratic House Leader Dubose Porter may reassess their options now that Barnes entered the race but former GA National Guard leader David Poythress, who has traded barbs with Barnes already is unlikely to make a move thinking apparently he can carry the anti-Barnes banner the furthest. 

Certainly some advantages and disadvantages to this move by Barnes but I think it's good for Democrats to have a proven leader back at the top of ticket who can raise major cash. However, 2002 must serve as a lesson to Barnes and others about the cost of becoming too assured of one's perceived success and that a great ground game operation must be in place in order to assure turnout of Democratic voters in a midterm election. I feel Barnes, who I've met and who is a very bright and capable leader can learn from these mistake though and run a very effective race in 2010 if current polling numbers are any indication.

 

Lot of NY-23 stuff to talk about. First up, the timing of the actual election. Hotline sez ($):

NY Board of Elections spokesperson John Conklin writes, if the vacancy happens soon, Gov. David Paterson (D) has the option of calling a special, “and then everything happens the same way it did” in NY-20, with each party picking its candidates and the general election is scheduled 30-40 days from his proclamation. Paterson also has the option of scheduling the special during the fall of ’09, in which case there would be a primary and general.

There may be pressure on Paterson to wait until the fall to save the state money on a special election. However, that would mean NY-23 would go without representation for five months, which may be too long to be politically acceptable. If we do have a special, then the county chairs of the eleven counties which make up the 23rd will all have a say in who each party’s nominee is. Below is a chart of those counties, ranked by population  & including voter registration numbers (PDF):

Who might run – or get tapped? The list of potential names is getting longer. Culled from a variety of sources, so far on the GOP side we have:

• Assemb. Diedre “Dede” Scozzafava
• Assemb. Janet Duprey
• Assemb. Will Barclay
• Former state Sen. Ray Meier (who ran in NY-24 in 2006)
• Former state Sen. Jim Wright
• Businesswoman Kay Stafford
• McHugh Chief-of-Staff Robert Taub
• Franklin County DA Derek Champagne
• Essex County DA Julie Garcia
• Terry Gach, VP of a biomedical research institute
• Michael F. Joyce, owner of a yacht company

Please let it be the yacht guy. Of note, state Sen. Betty Little has already said no. As for the Dems:

• State Sen. Darrel J. Aubertine
• State Sen. David Valesky
• Assemb. Addie Jenne Russell
• Daniel J. French, a former Moynihan aide
• Michael P. Oot, the 2008 nominee
• State party Chairwoman June O’Neill
• John Rhodes, who weighed a 2008 run
• St. Lawrence County DA Nicole Duvé

Count me among those who do not want to see Dems risk our narrow-as-can-be majority in the state Senate in order to try picking up NY-23 – especially if, as some speculate, the district will be eliminated come 2012.

RESULTS: Associated Press (county-by-county results available here)

10:04PM (David): Thanks to diligent work and zero ganja breaks over at the New Jersey Board of Elections, the AP is now able to call the race for Chris Christie. Good luck, Mr. Corzine.

9:57PM (David): 53% of precincts are in, and Christie is up 55-42. In other words, Lonegan now has to do better than Christie has all night to eke out a win. Maybe Jon Corzine should have spent $10 mil on the GOP primary.

9:42PM: 2885 precincts in, and Christie has upped his lead to nearly 22K votes, but the percentage spread is still the same: 56-41. Corzine’s scraped his way up to 80%.

9:15PM: 1651 precincts in, and Christie is ahead by 56-41… or just under 13,000 votes. Corzine back up to 79%.

9:00PM: With 922 precincts under our belt, Christie’s lead has dropped ever-so-slightly to 57-40. Corzine at 76%.

8:45PM: 361 precincts now complete, and Christie is looking fairly comfortable at 59-39. Corzine’s up to 80%.

8:34PM: 139 precincts reporting (of 6302), and Christie is ahead, but by a slightly tighter margin: 60-38. Corzine’s at 79%.

8:11PM ET: Chris Christie has the very early lead in the GOP primary over Steven Lonegan with just a wheelbarrow-full of votes counted: 62%-35%. Anyone care to guess what share of the vote Jon Corzine will end up with against his three no-name challengers?

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (5/26-30, likely voters, early May in parens):

Dan Onorato (D): 29

Tom Corbett (R): 34

None/other: 4

Undecided: 32

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 46 (42)

Pat Toomey (R): 37 (36)

None/other: 4

Undecided: 13

(MoE: ±3.7%)

This is the first poll I’ve seen of the Pennsylvania governor’s race; it’s from Susquehanna, a Republican pollster (this poll doesn’t seem to be taken on anyone’s behalf, although the early May Senate trendlines are from a poll on behalf of pro-business PEG PAC), so take with salt as needed. As expected, it shows a very tight race, giving a slight edge to Republican AG Tom Corbett over Democratic Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato. With very high undecideds, a lot of this seems to be about name recognition, and Corbett benefits by being a statewide official.

But, looking at geographical crosstabs, Onorato performs very well where he’s well-known, giving him a lot of room to pull into the lead once he’s better known. While Corbett actually leads 28/27 in the Dem-leaning Philadelphia suburbs, Onorato leads 51/29 in the Pittsburgh area, which is where both Corbett and Onorato are from. Also, bear in mind that this may not be the matchup in November 2010; on the Democratic side, there’s also Auditor Jack Wagner (also from the Pittsburgh area), while for the GOP, there’s former US Attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach (both from the Philly burbs).

On the Senate front, no surprises: Arlen Specter leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey by a comfortable but not huge margin of 9, up from a gap of 6 in the previous Susquehanna poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll from last week, as well as a month-old POS poll, both found a 9-point spread as well (although R2K and a month-old Quinnipiac found the margin over 20).

The poll also took a subsample of Democrats, and while they inexplicably didn’t ask about the possible Specter/Joe Sestak matchup, they did ask whether should face a primary challenge to earn his rightful place in the party. Dems approved of the primary challenge, 63%-28%.