Swing State Project

Yacoubian Research for WMC-TV (4/23-27, likely voters):

Steve Cohen (D-inc): 65

Willie Herenton (D): 14

Unsure: 21

(MoE: ±5.2%)

Steve Cohen faces an unusual challenge: his Memphis-based D+23 seat is as safe as can be in the general election, but as a white guy representing a district that’s almost two-thirds African-American, he’s consistently vulnerable in the primary. (As you’ll remember, Cohen won a heated primary in 2008 against Nikki Tinker, although that race will be remembered more for its sliminess than a close margin, as Cohen won with 79%.) When five-term Memphis mayor Willie Herenton announced last week that he was “seriously evaluating” a primary challenge to Cohen, on its face, that seemed like about the biggest possible challenge Cohen could face.

A new poll commissioned by a Memphis TV affiliate, however, suggests that Herenton doesn’t make the transition from strong-on-paper to reality very well, as he loses to Cohen by a sweeping margin. Herenton, who’s been in office since 1991, has apparently had ample time for the citizens of Memphis to get sick of him. Herenton won his most recent election in 2007 with only 42% of the vote (following pre-election polling indicating only 20% support for his re-election). Herenton also announced his resignation in 2008 in order to jump over to running Memphis’s public schools, then promptly reversed himself and continued being mayor when that deal fell through. Herenton seems to be floundering around, looking for a mayoral exit strategy, and that perception must be even stronger within the city.

• NY-20: Scott Murphy gets sworn in today as the newest member of the House Democratic caucus. Congratulations! (D)

• PA-Sen: All of a sudden, the Pennsylvania GOP is beating a path to Jim Gerlach’s door to get him to consider jumping over to the Senate race, now that they’re stuck facing an Arlen Specter vs. Pat Toomey wipeout in the general election. (Gerlach has been associated with the open governor’s race, but is still in the exploratory stage.) Gerlach says “Don’t rule anything out.” The rather moderate and Philly-burbs-based Gerlach might face the same weaknesses in a closed primary against Toomey that Specter did, though (although Gerlach hasn’t been cultivating conservative ill-will for decades like Specter).

• OK-Gov: Stuart Rothenberg reports that ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is getting close to a decision on whether to run for the governor’s seat in Oklahoma, and that he’s likely to get in. This would pit him in a battle royale with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin for the GOP nod.

• CA-03: Here’s some proof that there’s a lot of blood in the water in the eight GOP-held House seats that Obama won in California: some pretty big sharks are sniffing out the races. Phil Angelides (the former treasurer, and loser of the 2006 governor’s race) is reportedly “taking a serious look” at a run against Dan Lungren in the Dem-trending R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs.

• OH-08: Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, widely known as an anti-immigration activist, may challenge House GOP leader John Boehner in a primary in this R+14 district. (D)

• CA-44: No surprise here, but Bill Hedrick, who held Rep. Ken Calvert to 51-49 in this R+6 Inland Empire seat last year, officially announced he’s back for another try. The Corona/Norco School Board chair can’t expect another under-the-radar surprise attack, but can expect a lot of DCCC help this time.

• RNC: Although he seems to have publicly escaped the NY-20 loss without calls for his head, the behind-the-scenes attempts to take down or at least circumvent Michael Steele continue. Some RNC members are proposing a new rule that would place new restrictions and oversight on Steele’s power of the purse-strings. (Seems like they might get better results if they sought better restrictions and oversight on Steele’s mouth instead.)

• Gay Marriage: I’m pleasantly surprised how fast gay marriage is gaining widespread acceptance and turning into a winning issue for us: a CBS/NYT poll finds 42% support nationwide for legalized gay marriage, with another 25% supporting civil unions and only 28% opposed to any legal recognition. 57% of those under age 40 support gay marriage.

• Census: Here’s another example of how there’s no such thing as a neutral and apolitical census: there’s a debate raging over the issue of where to count persons who are in prison. While the Census Bureau currently plans to continue its policy in 2010 of counting prisoners where they reside (often in rural counties where a sizable percentage of the population is incarcerated), civil rights groups and even NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg support counting them at their last known address… which would mean more funds, and a redistricting advantage, for major cities.

• History: For the history fans among us, the Senate’s website has profiles of all 20 previous Senate party-switchers. (Here’s a chapter from US History I’d completely forgotten about: more than one-third of these switches were western-state senators in the 1890s during the free silver movement.)

Looks like PPP just released a poll out of Illinois for both the Gubernatorial and Senatorial Democratic primaries and it looks pretty bad for Burris and Quinn (if Madigan decides to run):

(without Schakowsky)

Burris 20
Giannoulis 49

(with Schakowsky)

Burris 16
Giannoulis 38
Schakowsky 26 

PPP shows that even if Jan Schakowsky runs for the Senate, Giannoulis still holds a fairly commanding lead (and in that scenario actually holding a plurality of African American voters). One of the major concerns has been that a really divisive primary between Schakowsky and Giannoulis could set up a way for Burris to squeak by on the backs of a united African American vote, but with Schakowsky actually taking African American support from Burris in the poll, it seems that Sen. Burris's mausoleum will only show him as Senator for 2 years (what a shame!).In the Governor's race it's

Madigan 45
Quinn 29

Personally, I have no horse in the Governor's race but I'd probably prefer Schakowsky in the Senate over Giannoulis (though I'm not picky about it either). Either way though, it looks like Burris isn't in good shape for the primary.

UPDATE: One other thing I noticed which makes me wonder why Madigan doesn't seriously consider running for Senate is that even in a crowded primary against Giannoulis, Schakowsky, and Burris, she still dominates the field:

Madigan 44
Giannoulis 19
Burris 13
Schakowsky 11

Right now Madigan's numbers are better than all three candidates combined (not including the undecideds) and even if Schakowsky didn't run and all of her support went to Giannoulis or Burris and all the undecideds broke entirely for Giannoulis or Burris (more likely the former) she would still hold a one point lead over Giannoulis. I know that Madigan wants the governor's mansion, but she should seriously consider making a move for the Senate.

Democrats have lined up a very credible challenger for GOP Rep. Mark Kirk — that is, assuming that Kirk decides to run for another term. In a press release just issued this morning, state Sen. Michael Bond has announced his candidacy for the 10th CD:

“After speaking with people in our communities, listening to their ideas and hearing their concerns, I’ve decided to run for Congress. Our country is facing enormous challenges. Decisions are being made that will affect Americans for generations to come, and it’s important to have people in Washington who will take a fresh approach to today’s problems, who will fight for what’s right and get something done.

Bond represents a historically Republican state Senate district in Chicago’s northern suburbs that, according to his press release, has a typical Democratic performance of only 44%. Bond surely hopes that his ability to win over GOP-leaning voters will carry over to a congressional race (where the partisan landscape, on paper, is even more favorable with a PVI of D+6).

Of course, Bond may not even have the primary field to himself. Kirk previously indicated that he would make a decision on his political future by the end of this month, and if he decides to parachute into either the Senate or gubernatorial race, Bond may face company from state Sen. Susan Garrett of Lake Forest and ’06/’08 candidate Dan Seals, who both have expressed interest in running for the seat should Kirk vacate the scene.

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

Before Arlen Specter’s Party switch announcement yesterday, the Senate’s Democratic caucus stood at 58 members.  Senator-elect Al Franken represented Democrats’ 59th vote toward cloture, still short of reliably ending Republican filibusters.  But now, with Specter joining the Democratic caucus, Senator-elect Franken represents the big 6-0, which is why Republicans will redouble their efforts to delay Senator-elect Franken’s seating – and why we in the netroots must redouble our efforts to send obstructionist Republicans a message and also provide them with adequate disincentive from delaying Senator-elect Franken’s seating any further. Since the “One Dollar a Day to Make Norm Coleman Go Away” effort started just a couple weeks ago, about $40,000 has been raised to remind the Republicans funding Norm Coleman’s endless appeals that, for every single day that they delay the implementation of the will of Minnesota voters, progressive voters will raise money to use against these Republicans on Election Day 2010.

Your support will strengthen that message!

Norm Coleman and his fellow Republicans recently scored a success in further delaying Senator-elect Franken’s seating, as the trial schedule adopted by the state Supreme Court for Coleman’s appeal is such that oral arguments before the Court won’t begin until June 1st, over a month from now.  Further, although Minnesota election policy dictates that Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty must prepare and sign Senator-elect Franken’s election certificate once the state Supreme Court hands down its decision, Pawlenty has hemmed and hawed as to whether he would follow state election policy accordingly. With a D next to Arlen Specter’s name, Republicans will go full force to block Senator-elect Franken’s seating.  Please join us in eliminating Republicans’ incentive to delay Senator-elect Franken’s seating any further by taking part in the “One Dollar a Day to Make Norm Coleman Go Away” effort.  At right is video of the segment on MSNBC’s Hardball highlighting the effort.

It’s about time that we made another assessment of the House open seat picture, wouldn’t you say? Just like we did last time, let’s gather up all of the confirmed and potential retirements/vacancies in the House, as well as the seats that were once considered potentially open, but now are not. We’ve also created a perma-post which you can find here or in the right-hand sidebar under “SSP Resources.” Please note that “age” in our charts refers to the incumbent’s age on election day, 2010.

Let’s do it:

It’s only the end of April, and we already have 15 open seats (two of which will be resolved in special elections later this year). Compare today’s situation with our open seat watch from two years ago, when there were only three confirmed open seats (and one of those retiring Reps, Luis Gutierrez, later reneged!). Of course, the big difference is that this cycle is host to a few dozen gubernatorial races — providing ample opportunities for House members (particularly beleaguered Republicans) to escape the DC scene. Indeed, all of the open seats in the above list could be placed in the “movin’ on up” category.

We haven’t even seen any straight-up retirements yet. Last cycle, the dam broke in August with the retirements of Dennis Hastert, Charles Pickering, and Deborah Pryce — that batch was soon followed up with the likes of Rick Renzi, Jerry Weller, and Jim Ramstad. I’m sure we’ll see our share of retirements later this year (and even more statewide runs), perhaps of names from the following column:

See anything we missed? Now is a good time to note that shortly after we posted our previous Open Seat Watch, a press flack for Illinois GOP Rep. Judy Biggert sent us the following email:

James-

I noticed your post “Swing State Project:: House Open Seat Watch (2/2/09)”, and I thought you might be interested to know that Congresswoman Biggert has already announced that she will be running for a seventh term.  Hope you find this info helpful.

I then followed this up with a request for a link to a press release or a news article on Biggert’s re-election announcement (something I could not find on The Google). We received the following reply:

I’ll have to check around.  I’ll let you know.

After three months of radio silence from Camp Biggert, her name is staying on the list. A list of incumbents whose names have been removed from our open seat watch is available below the fold.

Resolved vacancies.

California State Senator Mark DeSaulnier, who is running to succeed Congresswoman Ellen Tauscher in California’s 10th District, launched his official campaign website this week.

The site can be accessed at http://www.markdesaulnierforco…

The race for CA-10 just got a bit more interesting with the entry of California Lt. Governor John Garamendi. Assemblymember Joan Buchanan and Fairfield native Anthony Woods are also running.

Although Garamendi’s is a high-profile challenger, DeSaulnier has been endorsed by Tauscher as well as neighboring Congressman George Miller and the Contra Costa Labor Council.

This promises to be a great race.

Not that it’s a surprise, but we can now officially cross off Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz from the open seat watch:

Aides to Rep. Allyson Schwartz say the third-term Pennsylvania Democrat will not seek her party’s nomination for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

Schwartz was among those widely talked about as a possible candidate, and had considered a Senate run. But after Arlen Specter’s party switch, Schwartz plans to support him and will focus on having a larger role in health-care policy in the House of Representatives.

Meanwhile, the Pennsylvania GOP, apparently unhappy-to-fearful with the idea of a Toomey general election candidacy and the havoc that it might wreak downballot, is searching fiercely for an alternative. The Hill mentions ex-Gov. Tom Ridge and current Reps. Jim Gerlach, Charlie Dent and Tim Murphy as possibilities. I’m not sure if any of those guys (particularly Ridge, who isn’t exactly a popular figure within the GOP’s base himself) would be interested in that kind of fight, but who the hell knows anymore.

SurveyUSA (4/25-27, likely voters):

Terry McAuliffe (D): 38

Brian Moran (D): 22

Creigh Deeds (D): 22

Other/Undecided: 18

(MoE: ±4.9%)

This is SUSA’s first poll of the Virginia Democratic gubernatorial primary, and also the first one to show ex-DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe with a significant lead. It appears that his fundraising prowess may be reaping some early dividends. While Moran is polling best in his vote-rich home turf (northeast VA) at 47%, he’s virtually a non-factor throughout the rest of the state, especially in southeast and central Virginia, where McAuliffe is performing strongly.

In the general election, however, Republican AG Bob McDonnell is leading all three Democrats:

Creigh Deeds (D): 39

Bob McDonnell (R): 44

Terry McAuliffe (D): 39

Bob McDonnell (R): 46

Brian Moran (D): 34

Bob McDonnell (R): 46

(MoE: ±2.7%)

This is not quite as fugly as the 10-to-15 point leads that McDonnell was amassing in a recent Rasmussen poll, but they still indicate that the Democratic nominee will have to hit the ground running as soon as the primary ends. Team Blue may take some small comfort in the fact that Republican Jerry Kilgore (himself a former AG) was leading Tim Kaine through almost every public poll until October 2005, but our field this time has an arguably bigger name recognition hole to climb out of this time around.

Yet another Republican is bailing from the House for a sunnier career in state politics. This time, it’s southern-fried wingnut Nathan Deal:

Sources close to Rep. Nathan Deal (R-Ga.) say that the nine-term Congressman will run for governor in 2010 and that an official announcement is expected to come at a Friday press conference in Georgia.

Members of the Georgia’s Republican House delegation have been in talks about which of the “G-7” would jump into the race to replace Gov. Sonny Perdue (R), who is term-limited next year. Deal informed his fellow Republican Members that he was running on Monday night and during the day on Tuesday.

Deal will join an already crowded GOP primary field, but he must be hoping that his entry will dissuade any of his fellow Republican House colleagues from taking the plunge, as well.

Open seat fans shouldn’t get too excited about this one — Deal (who began his career a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away as a Democrat) occupies a ridiculously red (R+28) district that gave McCain 75% of the vote last November. Roll Call takes a look at the potential GOP field to replace him in the House:

Among the Republicans who are being mentioned as possible replacements for Deal in the 9th district are talk radio host Martha Zoller, state Reps. Tom Graves and James Mills, state Sens. Chip Pearson and Lee Hawkins, former state Sen. Bill Stevens and former Rep. Max Burns, who recently moved to the 9th district and teaches at North Georgia College.